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margin: 0 0 0.5em 0.5em; text-align:left; border: 1px solid #009761; width:175px;"> <tbody><tr> <td style="font-size: 95%; text-align:center; color:White; background-color:#009761"><b>Cogito ergo sum</b><br /><a href="/wiki/Logic" title="Logic"><font size="4" color="White"><b>Logic and rhetoric</b></font></a> </td></tr> <tr> <td style="background-color:#FFFFFF;" align="center"><a href="/wiki/Category:Logic" title="Category:Logic"><img alt="Icon logic.svg" src="/w/images/thumb/9/99/Icon_logic.svg/100px-Icon_logic.svg.png" decoding="async" width="100" height="100" srcset="/w/images/thumb/9/99/Icon_logic.svg/150px-Icon_logic.svg.png 1.5x, /w/images/thumb/9/99/Icon_logic.svg/200px-Icon_logic.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="200" data-file-height="200" /></a> </td></tr> <tr> <td style="font-size: 95%; color:White; background-color:#009761; text-align:center;"><b>Key articles</b> </td></tr> <tr> <td style="font-size: 95%; background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Logical_fallacy" title="Logical fallacy">Logical fallacy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Syllogism" title="Syllogism">Syllogism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Argument" title="Argument">Argument</a></li></ul> </td></tr> <tr> <td style="font-size: 95%; color:White; background-color:#009761; text-align:center;"><b>General logic</b> </td></tr> <tr> <td style="font-size: 95%; background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Quote_mining" title="Quote mining">Quote mining</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overprecision" title="Overprecision">Overprecision</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Word_magic" title="Word magic">Word magic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Adding_epicycles" title="Adding epicycles">Adding epicycles</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_sarcina_inserta" title="Argumentum ad sarcina inserta">Argumentum ad sarcina inserta</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Apelaci%C3%B3n_a_la_piedad" title="Apelación a la piedad">Apelación a la piedad</a></li></ul> </td></tr> <tr> <td style="font-size: 95%; color:White; background-color:#009761; text-align:center;"><b>Bad logic</b> </td></tr> <tr> <td style="font-size: 95%; background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Shill_gambit" title="Shill gambit">Shill gambit</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_pity" title="Appeal to pity">Appeal to pity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_was_wrong_before" title="Media was wrong before">Media was wrong before</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bait-and-switch" title="Bait-and-switch">Bait-and-switch</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Word_magic" title="Word magic">Word magic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Omnipotence_paradox" title="Omnipotence paradox">Omnipotence paradox</a></li></ul> <div class="vte plainlinks" style="font-size:smaller; text-align:center;"><a href="/wiki/Template:Logicnav" title="Template:Logicnav">v</a> - <a href="/wiki/Template_talk:Logicnav" title="Template talk:Logicnav">t</a> - <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://rationalwiki.org/w/index.php?title=Template:Logicnav&action=edit">e</a></div> </td></tr></tbody></table> <p>The <b>gambler's fallacy</b> (also the <b>Monte Carlo fallacy</b> or the <b>fallacy of statistics</b>) is the <a href="/wiki/Logical_fallacy" title="Logical fallacy">logical fallacy</a> that a <a href="/wiki/Random" class="mw-redirect" title="Random">random</a> process becomes less random, and thus more predictable, as it is repeated. This is most commonly seen in <a href="/wiki/Gambling" title="Gambling">gambling</a>, hence the name of the fallacy. For example, a person playing craps may feel that the dice are "due" for a certain number, based on their failure to win after multiple rolls. This is a false belief, as the odds of rolling a certain number are the same for each roll, independent of previous or future rolls. </p><p>The fallacy is a fallacy of <a href="/wiki/False_cause" class="mw-redirect" title="False cause">false cause</a> and an <a href="/wiki/Informal_fallacy" title="Informal fallacy">informal fallacy</a>. </p> <div id="toc" class="toc" role="navigation" aria-labelledby="mw-toc-heading"><input type="checkbox" role="button" id="toctogglecheckbox" class="toctogglecheckbox" style="display:none" /><div class="toctitle" lang="en" dir="ltr"><h2 id="mw-toc-heading">Contents</h2><span class="toctogglespan"><label class="toctogglelabel" for="toctogglecheckbox"></label></span></div> <ul> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-1"><a href="#Form"><span class="tocnumber">1</span> <span class="toctext">Form</span></a> <ul> <li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-2"><a href="#Reverse"><span class="tocnumber">1.1</span> <span class="toctext">Reverse</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-3"><a href="#Inverse"><span class="tocnumber">1.2</span> <span class="toctext">Inverse</span></a></li> </ul> </li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-4"><a href="#Further_examples"><span class="tocnumber">2</span> <span class="toctext">Further examples</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-5"><a href="#Contrary_examples"><span class="tocnumber">3</span> <span class="toctext">Contrary examples</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-6"><a href="#See_also"><span class="tocnumber">4</span> <span class="toctext">See also</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-7"><a href="#External_links"><span class="tocnumber">5</span> <span class="toctext">External links</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-8"><a href="#Notes"><span class="tocnumber">6</span> <span class="toctext">Notes</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-9"><a href="#References"><span class="tocnumber">7</span> <span class="toctext">References</span></a></li> </ul> </div> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Form">Form</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Gambler%27s_fallacy&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Form">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2> <dl><dd><b>P1:</b> Random event <b>X</b> just happened.<br /></dd> <dd><b>P2:</b> Random events "even out" by active self-correction.<br /></dd> <dd><b>C:</b> Random event <b>X</b> is more/less likely to happen.<br /></dd></dl> <h3><span class="mw-headline" id="Reverse">Reverse</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Gambler%27s_fallacy&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Reverse">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h3> <p>The Reverse Gambler's Fallacy is a misunderstanding of the laws of <a href="/wiki/Probability" title="Probability">probability</a>, most notably the law of large numbers, to imply that independent random variables can show trends that can be extrapolated to the future (or to the past). </p><p>For instance, given four successive results of "heads" for a series of fair coin tosses, instances of the fallacy make the gambler think that a result of "heads" is more probable for the next toss (the coin "favors" heads) or that a result of "tails" is more probable ("the odds need to even out"). Sometimes, the gambler may consider that he or she is on a 'winning streak', or is having good luck, that will continue. </p><p>You do not commit this fallacy if you predict the trend will continue <i>because</i> you suspect the underlying variables are not random and/or independent of one another. For example, if you suspect the coin toss is not a fair (i.e. unbiased) trial, you do not commit this fallacy if you predict the next toss will yield another head (though you may be making the <a href="/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy" title="Texas sharpshooter fallacy">Texas sharpshooter fallacy</a> in suspecting bias in the first place). </p> <h3><span class="mw-headline" id="Inverse">Inverse</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Gambler%27s_fallacy&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Inverse">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h3> <p>You commit the <b>Inverse Gambler's Fallacy</b> if you deduce, from an unlikely outcome of a random event (e.g. a dice roll), that many such events (dice rolls) probably occurred before. </p><p>For example, if you roll two dice and get double sixes, and then reason as follows: </p> <ol><li>It is unlikely that double sixes would be thrown in a single roll.</li> <li>It is more likely that double sixes would be thrown in a long series of rolls.</li> <li>So someone has probably been throwing these dice before I came along.</li></ol> <p>The Inverse Gambler's Fallacy is frequently mentioned in discussions of <a href="/wiki/Universe#Multiverse" title="Universe">multiple universes</a> and the <a href="/wiki/Anthropic_principle" title="Anthropic principle">anthropic principle</a>. For example, many people reason thus: </p> <ol><li>It is unlikely that a single <a href="/wiki/Universe" title="Universe">universe</a> would happen to have <a href="/wiki/Physics" title="Physics">physics</a> capable of supporting <a href="/wiki/Life" title="Life">life</a>.</li> <li>It is more likely that such a universe would exist if there are multiple universes.</li> <li>So, there are probably multiple universes.</li></ol> <p>Amongst <a href="/wiki/Philosopher" class="mw-redirect" title="Philosopher">philosophers</a> studying anthropic reasoning, it has been debated whether this particular argument is or is not a fallacy. Although structurally similar to the fallacious example at the top, some, such as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom" class="extiw" title="wp:Nick Bostrom" rel="nofollow"><span style="color:#477979 !important;" title="Wikipedia: Nick Bostrom">Nick Bostrom</span></a>,<sup><img alt="" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5a/Wikipedia%27s_W.svg/12px-Wikipedia%27s_W.svg.png" decoding="async" width="12" height="12" srcset="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5a/Wikipedia%27s_W.svg/18px-Wikipedia%27s_W.svg.png 1.5x, https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5a/Wikipedia%27s_W.svg/24px-Wikipedia%27s_W.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="128" data-file-height="128" /></sup> note the following: In the latter case we wouldn't be here to observe the "dice roll" (i.e. the laws of physics) if it was anything other than "double sixes" (i.e. a "fine-tuned" universe). Thus, this argument is not the same. </p><p>Instead, they suggest the following analogy: </p> <dl><dd>Suppose you're told that a pair of dice will be rolled until a double six appears. You will then be allowed into the room to see the double six. You are summoned to the room and see the double six. Should you conclude that there were probably some previous rolls?</dd></dl> <p>In this case, yes. </p> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Further_examples">Further examples</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Gambler%27s_fallacy&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Further examples">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2> <p>The lack of predictability holds most clearly for coin-tossing — if one tosses 1,000 "heads" in a row, the odds of the next toss are still 50:50, even though people may think "tails" is more likely because of the lack of tails in the past.<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1">[note 1]</a></sup> In one respect, this is because we're often unfamiliar with what a truly random sequence can look like. We expect a random sequence of heads and tails to look evenly distributed between the two options, such as HHTHTTHTTH, while the sequence HHHHHTTTTT looks less random. While the latter might have more order as there are more combinations that are evenly distributed than combinations where all the heads are clustered together, it is not any <i>less likely</i> a combination. We simply infer that this is not random because of the higher order, even though this is mathematically incorrect. By the fact that we perceive a sequence such as HHTHTTHTTH as more random than HHHHHTTTTT, we expect a more closely packed alternation between heads and tails. A string of one result is <i>expected</i> to switch to the other within three or four coin tosses, not continue on as a streak. </p><p>Looking at how the odds work, we can see why the expectation of a change is wrong and why the gambler's fallacy is fallacious. The odds for any particular combination of ten coin flips is as follows: </p><p><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2=1/1024\,}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mn>1</mn> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <mn>1024</mn> <mspace width="thinmathspace" /> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2=1/1024\,}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/32ae48ce84597698cd150cd8317f89ef2af45163" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:70.898ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2\times 1/2=1/1024\,}"/></span> </p><p>This is true for <i>any</i> potential combination. Therefore the combination HHHHHHHHH<b>T</b> is precisely the same as HHHHHHHHH<b>H</b>. Illustrated another way, we can look at the probability from the perspective <i>after</i> the first 9 flips. This is: </p><p><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1/2=1/2}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mn>1</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>×</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>/</mo> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1/2=1/2}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/6cd21cd727f92cd2278189d5c421f92b04d3d090" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:46.099ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1\times 1/2=1/2}"/></span> </p><p>All the 50:50 probabilities have changed into 100% certainties. This is because probability represents uncertainty. After a fact, we no longer have any uncertainty — if we've flipped nine coins, they can be on the table ahead of us with a clear result, we're no longer unsure which ones will land heads and which ones will land tails because they've already done so. While flipping 9 heads in a row is a significantly unlikely event, as it's just one potential combination out of 512 it is no more special (except for the perceived ordering) than any other combination. After the event occurs, however, the probability of it occurring is 1. </p><p>Similarly, the odds of winning the lottery don't increase or even decrease every time you play — even though people may think that they haven't won a small prize for a while so one should be due. In this case, the root of the fallacy is revealed; people believe random events become "overdue" if their occurrences lie outside the given odds. The odds of an asteroid impact causing an <a href="/wiki/Extinction_level_event" class="mw-redirect" title="Extinction level event">extinction level event</a> might be worded as "one every 65 million years" but this doesn't magically increase the certainty once 65 million years have passed. </p><p>The name "gambler's fallacy" comes from the fact that this can often lead to people wasting <a href="/wiki/Money" title="Money">money</a> on gambling just because they think they're on a losing streak that they <i>must</i> break sooner or later. Slot machines suffer the same fate, with people insisting that some machines are "hot" and "due" for a big payout because that's how they're programmed. This simply isn't true, as probabilities can be read from manufacturing specifications and legal documents showing no such programming.<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2">[1]</a></sup> This isn't helped by the <a href="/wiki/Selective_reporting" title="Selective reporting">selective reporting</a> of people who do go on such losing streaks only to turn it around later, while the ones who continued their streaks stayed silent — or turned their <a href="/wiki/Luck" title="Luck">luck</a> around later anyway. </p> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Contrary_examples">Contrary examples</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Gambler%27s_fallacy&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: Contrary examples">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2> <p>The Gambler's Fallacy doesn't always apply as a fallacy — there are plenty of incidents where past actions do affect the next move. In card games, from poker to blackjack, cards already played are sometimes not available for the next hand, or draw — so odds have obviously been changed. Hence a "card counter" is a player who assigns a value to each played card to keep track of probability changes as cards are dealt and used, taking advantage of <a href="/wiki/Statistical" class="mw-redirect" title="Statistical">statistical</a> opportunities when they appear. However, this is not a true exception to the rule as the odds <i>really are</i> different each time around due to the act of cards being used up — if you draw an ace from a complete deck of cards, a 4 in 52 (7.6%) chance, then the odds of drawing an ace <i>again</i> are changed to 3 in 51 (5.8%), as there are fewer cards available. These are examples of <i>dependent</i> events; the gambler's fallacy is properly understood as only applying to <i>independent</i> ones. </p><p>This is also the case with <a href="/wiki/Black_swan" title="Black swan">black swan</a> type events. As these high impact, and often unfavourable, events are unpredictable it's not easy to know what one will strike, or when, or how they will be initiated. However, once it has struck then the problem and cause may be identified (in fact this application of hindsight is part of the definition of "black swan") and solved. The odds of <i>that specific event</i> ever happening again are reduced significantly. For example, while the <a href="/wiki/9/11" title="9/11">9/11</a> terrorist attacks happened precisely because no one (other than the perpetrators) thought they were possible, the reactionary moves to lock and secure cockpit doors as well as tighten airport security to <a href="/wiki/Security_theater" title="Security theater">comical levels</a> means that an identical attack is far less likely, if not impossible. Of course, the odds of those incidents that are still genuinely outside the realm of our <a href="/wiki/Common_sense" title="Common sense">common sense</a> experience haven't been affected. </p><p>To muddy the waters further, some <a href="/wiki/Video_game" title="Video game">Video games</a> (and other digital products) use a pseudo-random generator that works like the gambler's fallacy.<sup id="cite_ref-playdota_3-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-playdota-3">[2]</a></sup> In these instances, a random event is in fact due after enough failures to achieve it. </p><p>Finally, while black swan events do still apply, actual casinos deal in high enough volume relative to individual gamblers (and with a high enough take) that a casino manager can realistically expect that the house will always (eventually) win. </p> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="See_also">See also</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Gambler%27s_fallacy&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: See also">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Clustering_illusion" title="Clustering illusion">Clustering illusion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Improbable_things_happen" title="Improbable things happen">Improbable things happen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pareidolia" title="Pareidolia">Pareidolia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Post_hoc,_ergo_propter_hoc" title="Post hoc, ergo propter hoc">Post hoc, ergo propter hoc</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Risk" title="Risk">Risk</a></li></ul> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="External_links">External links</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Gambler%27s_fallacy&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: External links">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2> <ul><li>See the <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia" title="Wikipedia">Wikipedia</a> article on <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy" class="extiw" title="wp:Gambler's fallacy" rel="nofollow">Gambler's fallacy</a>.</li> <li>See the <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia" title="Wikipedia">Wikipedia</a> article on <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse_gambler%27s_fallacy" class="extiw" title="wp:Inverse gambler's fallacy" rel="nofollow">Inverse gambler's fallacy</a>.</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20060711170902/http://www.cuyamaca.net/bruce.thompson/Fallacies/gamblers.asp">Gambler's fallacy</a>, Bruce Thompson</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.fallacyfiles.org/gamblers.html">The Gambler's Fallacy</a>, <a href="/wiki/Fallacy_Files" title="Fallacy Files">Fallacy Files</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://vegasclick.com/gambling/fallacy.html">Exposing the Gambler's Fallacy</a>, VegasClick</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.iep.utm.edu/fallacy/#Gambler's">Gambler's</a>, Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://skepdic.com/gamblers.html">gambler's fallacy</a>, <a href="/wiki/Skeptic%27s_Dictionary" class="mw-redirect" title="Skeptic's Dictionary">Skeptic's Dictionary</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/the-gamblers-fallacy">Your logical fallacy is the gambler's fallacy</a>, <a href="/wiki/YLFI" class="mw-redirect" title="YLFI">YLFI</a></li></ul> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Notes">Notes</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Gambler%27s_fallacy&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Notes">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2> <div class="references-small" style="font-size:90%;"> <div class="mw-references-wrap"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-1">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">However, the <i>demonstrated history</i> of a very long chain of identical results may very well call the randomness of the underlying process into question, by <a href="/wiki/Bayesian_inference" class="mw-redirect" title="Bayesian inference">Bayesian inference</a>. To challenge the presumed fairness of the coin, or the presumed inability of the flipper to determine the outcome, <i>based on consistent historical evidence of improbable results</i>, is not fallacious.</span> </li> </ol></div></div> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="References">References</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Gambler%27s_fallacy&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: References">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2> <div class="references-small" style="font-size:90%;"> <div class="mw-references-wrap"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-2">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://vegasclick.com/games/slots/">Michael Bluejay — All about Slot Machines</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-playdota-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-playdota_3-0">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.playdota.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7993">Pseudo Random Distribution</a></span> </li> </ol></div></div> <div role="navigation" aria-labelledby="Articles_on_Cognitive_biases-navigationbox" class="toccolours" style="clear:both; margin:0.5em 3.5%; text-align:center;"> <div style="margin:0.15em; padding:0.1em; background:#ccccff; font-weight:bold;"><span id="Articles_on_Cognitive_biases-navigationbox">Articles on <a href="/wiki/Cognitive_bias" class="mw-redirect" title="Cognitive bias">Cognitive biases</a></span> </div> <div class="hlist" style="font-size: 90%; margin: 0.15em 1.425em;">  <a href="/wiki/Selection_bias" title="Selection bias">Selection bias</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Outcome_bias" title="Outcome bias">Outcome bias</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Confirmation_bias" title="Confirmation bias">Confirmation bias</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Clustering_illusion" title="Clustering illusion">Clustering illusion</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Demonization" title="Demonization">Demonization</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Hindsight_bias" title="Hindsight bias">Hindsight bias</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Confabulation" title="Confabulation">Confabulation</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Framing" title="Framing">Framing</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Just_world_fallacy" title="Just world fallacy">Just world fallacy</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Overconfidence_effect" title="Overconfidence effect">Overconfidence effect</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Walled_garden" title="Walled garden">Walled garden</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Survivorship_bias" title="Survivorship bias">Survivorship bias</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Frequency_illusion" title="Frequency illusion">Frequency illusion</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Overgeneralization" title="Overgeneralization">Overgeneralization</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Response_bias" title="Response bias">Response bias</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Experimenter_bias" title="Experimenter bias">Experimenter bias</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect" title="Dunning–Kruger effect">Dunning–Kruger effect</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Moral_licensing" title="Moral licensing">Moral licensing</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Ultimate_attribution_error" title="Ultimate attribution error">Ultimate attribution error</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Delusion" title="Delusion">Delusion</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Vi%C3%A9s_de_sele%C3%A7%C3%A3o" title="Viés de seleção">Viés de seleção</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Conjunction_fallacy" title="Conjunction fallacy">Conjunction fallacy</a>  -  <a href="/wiki/Outgroup" title="Outgroup">Outgroup</a>  </div> </div><div role="navigation" aria-labelledby="logical_fallacies-navbox" style="clear:both;"> <table class="toccolours collapsible collapsed autocollapse innercollapse outercollapse navbox nowraplinks" style="width:100%;"> <tbody><tr> <th colspan="4" style="background:#009761; color:white; text-align:center;"><div style="float:left;" class="navbar"><div class="vte plainlinks" style="font-size:smaller; text-align:center;"><a href="/wiki/Template:Logfal" title="Template:Logfal"><span style="color:white">v</span></a> - <a href="/wiki/Template_talk:Logfal" title="Template talk:Logfal"><span style="color:white">t</span></a> - <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://rationalwiki.org/w/index.php?title=Template:Logfal&action=edit"><span style="color:white">e</span></a></div></div><span style="color:white; font-size:120%"><a href="/wiki/Category:Navigation_templates" title="Category:Navigation templates"><span style="color:white">Articles</span></a> about <a href="/wiki/Logical_fallacy" title="Logical fallacy"><span id="logical_fallacies-navbox" style="color:white">logical fallacies</span></a></span> </th></tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" style="background:#009761; width:25%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Informal_fallacies" title="Category:Informal fallacies"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Informal fallacies:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_tradition" title="Appeal to tradition">Appeal to tradition</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_novelty" title="Appeal to novelty">Appeal to novelty</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_nature" title="Appeal to nature">Appeal to nature</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_from_morality" title="Argument from morality">Argument from morality</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_martyrdom" title="Argumentum ad martyrdom">Argumentum ad martyrdom</a> • <a href="/wiki/Big_words" title="Big words">Big words</a> • <a href="/wiki/Certum_est_quia_impossibile_est" title="Certum est quia impossibile est">Certum est quia impossibile est</a> • <a href="/wiki/Morton%27s_fork" title="Morton's fork">Morton's fork</a> • <a href="/wiki/Friend_argument" title="Friend argument">Friend argument</a> • <a href="/wiki/Exception_that_proves_the_rule" title="Exception that proves the rule">Exception that proves the rule</a> • <a href="/wiki/Extended_analogy" title="Extended analogy">Extended analogy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Hindsight_bias" title="Hindsight bias">Hindsight bias</a> • <a href="/wiki/Race_card" title="Race card">Race card</a> • <a href="/wiki/Moralistic_fallacy" title="Moralistic fallacy">Moralistic fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Release_the_data" title="Release the data">Release the data</a> • <a href="/wiki/Gish_Gallop" title="Gish Gallop">Gish Gallop</a> • <a href="/wiki/Terrorism-baiting" title="Terrorism-baiting">Terrorism-baiting</a> • <a href="/wiki/Uncertainty_tactic" title="Uncertainty tactic">Uncertainty tactic</a> • <a href="/wiki/Greece-baiting" title="Greece-baiting">Greece-baiting</a> • <a href="/wiki/Ham_Hightail" title="Ham Hightail">Ham Hightail</a> • <a href="/wiki/Red-baiting" title="Red-baiting">Red-baiting</a> • <a href="/wiki/Gore%27s_Law" title="Gore's Law">Gore's Law</a> • <a href="/wiki/Nazi_analogies" title="Nazi analogies">Nazi analogies</a> • <a href="/wiki/Mistaking_the_map_for_the_territory" title="Mistaking the map for the territory">Mistaking the map for the territory</a> • <a href="/wiki/Red_herring" title="Red herring">Red herring</a> • <a href="/wiki/Quidquid_latine_dictum_sit,_altum_videtur" title="Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur">Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur</a> • <a href="/wiki/Presentism" title="Presentism">Presentism</a> • <a href="/wiki/Sunk_cost" title="Sunk cost">Sunk cost</a> • <a href="/wiki/Two_wrongs_make_a_right" title="Two wrongs make a right">Two wrongs make a right</a> • <a href="/wiki/Flying_carpet_fallacy" title="Flying carpet fallacy">Flying carpet fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/My_enemy%27s_enemy" title="My enemy's enemy">My enemy's enemy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_ancient_wisdom" title="Appeal to ancient wisdom">Appeal to ancient wisdom</a> • <a href="/wiki/Danth%27s_Law" title="Danth's Law">Danth's Law</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_lunam" title="Argumentum ad lunam">Argumentum ad lunam</a> • <a href="/wiki/Balance_fallacy" title="Balance fallacy">Balance fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Golden_hammer" title="Golden hammer">Golden hammer</a> • <a href="/wiki/Loaded_question" title="Loaded question">Loaded question</a> • <a href="/wiki/Escape_to_the_future" title="Escape to the future">Escape to the future</a> • <a href="/wiki/Word_magic" title="Word magic">Word magic</a> • <a href="/wiki/Spider-Man_fallacy" title="Spider-Man fallacy">Spider-Man fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Sanctioning_the_devil" title="Sanctioning the devil">Sanctioning the devil</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_mystery" title="Appeal to mystery">Appeal to mystery</a> • <a href="/wiki/Informal_fallacy" title="Informal fallacy">Informal fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Common_sense" title="Common sense">Common sense</a> • <a href="/wiki/Post-designation" title="Post-designation">Post-designation</a> • <a href="/wiki/Hyperbole" title="Hyperbole">Hyperbole</a> • <a href="/wiki/Relativist_fallacy" title="Relativist fallacy">Relativist fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Due_diligence" title="Due diligence">Due diligence</a> • <a href="/wiki/Straw_man" title="Straw man">Straw man</a> • <a href="/wiki/Good_old_days" title="Good old days">Good old days</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_probability" title="Appeal to probability">Appeal to probability</a> • <a href="/wiki/Infinite_regress" title="Infinite regress">Infinite regress</a> • <a href="/wiki/Circular_reasoning" title="Circular reasoning">Circular reasoning</a> • <a href="/wiki/Media_was_wrong_before" title="Media was wrong before">Media was wrong before</a> • <a href="/wiki/Is%E2%80%93ought_problem" title="Is–ought problem">Is–ought problem</a> • <a href="/wiki/Ad_iram" title="Ad iram">Ad iram</a> • <a href="/wiki/Just_asking_questions" title="Just asking questions">Just asking questions</a> • <a href="/wiki/Pink-baiting" title="Pink-baiting">Pink-baiting</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_faith" title="Appeal to faith">Appeal to faith</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_fear" title="Appeal to fear">Appeal to fear</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_bias" title="Appeal to bias">Appeal to bias</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_confidence" title="Appeal to confidence">Appeal to confidence</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_consequences" title="Appeal to consequences">Appeal to consequences</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_emotion" title="Appeal to emotion">Appeal to emotion</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_flattery" title="Appeal to flattery">Appeal to flattery</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_gravity" title="Appeal to gravity">Appeal to gravity</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_hate" title="Appeal to hate">Appeal to hate</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_from_omniscience" title="Argument from omniscience">Argument from omniscience</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_from_silence" title="Argument from silence">Argument from silence</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_baculum" title="Argumentum ad baculum">Argumentum ad baculum</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_fastidium" title="Argumentum ad fastidium">Argumentum ad fastidium</a> • <a href="/wiki/Association_fallacy" title="Association fallacy">Association fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Broken_window_fallacy" title="Broken window fallacy">Broken window fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Category_mistake" title="Category mistake">Category mistake</a> • <a href="/wiki/Confounding_factor" title="Confounding factor">Confounding factor</a> • <a href="/wiki/Counterfactual_fallacy" title="Counterfactual fallacy">Counterfactual fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Courtier%27s_Reply" title="Courtier's Reply">Courtier's Reply</a> • <a href="/wiki/Damning_with_faint_praise" title="Damning with faint praise">Damning with faint praise</a> • <a href="/wiki/Definitional_fallacies" title="Definitional fallacies">Definitional fallacies</a> • <a href="/wiki/Equivocation" title="Equivocation">Equivocation</a> • <a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_accent" title="Fallacy of accent">Fallacy of accent</a> • <a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_accident" title="Fallacy of accident">Fallacy of accident</a> • <a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_amphiboly" title="Fallacy of amphiboly">Fallacy of amphiboly</a> • <a href="/wiki/Imprecision_fallacy" title="Imprecision fallacy">Imprecision fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Moving_the_goalposts" title="Moving the goalposts">Moving the goalposts</a> • <a href="/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy" title="Nirvana fallacy">Nirvana fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Overprecision" title="Overprecision">Overprecision</a> • <a href="/wiki/Pathos_gambit" title="Pathos gambit">Pathos gambit</a> • <a href="/wiki/Pragmatic_fallacy" title="Pragmatic fallacy">Pragmatic fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Quote_mining" title="Quote mining">Quote mining</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_sarcina_inserta" title="Argumentum ad sarcina inserta">Argumentum ad sarcina inserta</a> • <a href="/wiki/Science_doesn%27t_know_everything" title="Science doesn't know everything">Science doesn't know everything</a> • <a href="/wiki/Slothful_induction" title="Slothful induction">Slothful induction</a> • <a href="/wiki/Spotlight_fallacy" title="Spotlight fallacy">Spotlight fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Style_over_substance" title="Style over substance">Style over substance</a> • <a href="/wiki/Toupee_fallacy" title="Toupee fallacy">Toupee fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Genuine_but_insignificant_cause" title="Genuine but insignificant cause">Genuine but insignificant cause</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_from_incredulity" title="Argument from incredulity">Argument from incredulity</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_age" title="Appeal to age">Appeal to age</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_nauseam" title="Argumentum ad nauseam">Argumentum ad nauseam</a> • <a href="/wiki/Phantom_distinction" title="Phantom distinction">Phantom distinction</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_common_sense" title="Appeal to common sense">Appeal to common sense</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_hysteria" title="Argumentum ad hysteria">Argumentum ad hysteria</a> • <a href="/wiki/Omnipotence_paradox" title="Omnipotence paradox">Omnipotence paradox</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_from_etymology" title="Argument from etymology">Argument from etymology</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_trauma" title="Appeal to trauma">Appeal to trauma</a> • <a href="/wiki/Countless_counterfeits_fallacy" title="Countless counterfeits fallacy">Countless counterfeits fallacy</a> • </td></tr> <tr> <td style="width:5%;">  </td> <td colspan="2" style="background:#009761; width:20%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Ad_hoc" title="Category:Ad hoc"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Ad hoc:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/No_True_Scotsman" title="No True Scotsman">No True Scotsman</a> • <a href="/wiki/Moving_the_goalposts" title="Moving the goalposts">Moving the goalposts</a> • <a href="/wiki/Escape_hatch" title="Escape hatch">Escape hatch</a> • <a href="/wiki/Handwave" title="Handwave">Handwave</a> • <a href="/wiki/Special_pleading" title="Special pleading">Special pleading</a> • <a href="/wiki/Slothful_induction" title="Slothful induction">Slothful induction</a> • <a href="/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy" title="Nirvana fallacy">Nirvana fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/God_of_the_gaps" title="God of the gaps">God of the gaps</a> • <a href="/wiki/PIDOOMA" title="PIDOOMA">PIDOOMA</a> • <a href="/wiki/Ad_hoc" title="Ad hoc">Ad hoc</a> • <a href="/wiki/Tone_argument" title="Tone argument">Tone argument</a> • </td></tr> <tr> <td style="width:5%;">  </td> <td colspan="2" style="background:#009761; width:20%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Arguments_from_ignorance" title="Category:Arguments from ignorance"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Arguments from ignorance:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/Science_doesn%27t_know_everything" title="Science doesn't know everything">Science doesn't know everything</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_from_incredulity" title="Argument from incredulity">Argument from incredulity</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_from_silence" title="Argument from silence">Argument from silence</a> • <a href="/wiki/Toupee_fallacy" title="Toupee fallacy">Toupee fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_censorship" title="Appeal to censorship">Appeal to censorship</a> • <a href="/wiki/Science_was_wrong_before" title="Science was wrong before">Science was wrong before</a> • <a href="/wiki/Holmesian_fallacy" title="Holmesian fallacy">Holmesian fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_from_omniscience" title="Argument from omniscience">Argument from omniscience</a> • <a href="/wiki/Willful_ignorance" title="Willful ignorance">Willful ignorance</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_from_ignorance" title="Argument from ignorance">Argument from ignorance</a> • </td></tr> <tr> <td style="width:5%;">  </td> <td colspan="2" style="background:#009761; width:20%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Causation_fallacies" title="Category:Causation fallacies"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Causation fallacies:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/Post_hoc,_ergo_propter_hoc" title="Post hoc, ergo propter hoc">Post hoc, ergo propter hoc</a> • <a href="/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation" title="Correlation does not imply causation">Correlation does not imply causation</a> • <a href="/wiki/Wrong_direction" title="Wrong direction">Wrong direction</a> • <a href="/wiki/Counterfactual_fallacy" title="Counterfactual fallacy">Counterfactual fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Regression_fallacy" title="Regression fallacy">Regression fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Denying_the_antecedent" title="Denying the antecedent">Denying the antecedent</a> • <a href="/wiki/Genuine_but_insignificant_cause" title="Genuine but insignificant cause">Genuine but insignificant cause</a> • </td></tr> <tr> <td style="width:5%;">  </td> <td colspan="2" style="background:#009761; width:20%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Circular_reasoning" title="Category:Circular reasoning"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Circular reasoning:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/Infinite_regress" title="Infinite regress">Infinite regress</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_by_assertion" title="Argument by assertion">Argument by assertion</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_dictionarium" title="Argumentum ad dictionarium">Argumentum ad dictionarium</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_faith" title="Appeal to faith">Appeal to faith</a> • <a href="/wiki/Circular_reasoning" title="Circular reasoning">Circular reasoning</a> • <a href="/wiki/Self-refuting_idea" title="Self-refuting idea">Self-refuting idea</a> • </td></tr> <tr> <td style="width:5%;">  </td> <td colspan="2" style="background:#009761; width:20%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Emotional_appeals" title="Category:Emotional appeals"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Emotional appeals:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_fear" title="Appeal to fear">Appeal to fear</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_emotion" title="Appeal to emotion">Appeal to emotion</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_confidence" title="Appeal to confidence">Appeal to confidence</a> • <a href="/wiki/Deepity" title="Deepity">Deepity</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_baculum" title="Argumentum ad baculum">Argumentum ad baculum</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_shame" title="Appeal to shame">Appeal to shame</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_flattery" title="Appeal to flattery">Appeal to flattery</a> • <a href="/wiki/Tone_argument" title="Tone argument">Tone argument</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_money" title="Appeal to money">Appeal to money</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_fastidium" title="Argumentum ad fastidium">Argumentum ad fastidium</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_gravity" title="Appeal to gravity">Appeal to gravity</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_consequences" title="Appeal to consequences">Appeal to consequences</a> • <a href="/wiki/Loaded_language" title="Loaded language">Loaded language</a> • <a href="/wiki/Style_over_substance" title="Style over substance">Style over substance</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_pity" title="Appeal to pity">Appeal to pity</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_hate" title="Appeal to hate">Appeal to hate</a> • <a href="/wiki/Pathos_gambit" title="Pathos gambit">Pathos gambit</a> • <a href="/wiki/Shaming" title="Shaming">Shaming</a> • <a href="/wiki/Degenerate" title="Degenerate">Degenerate</a> • <a href="/wiki/Abomination" title="Abomination">Abomination</a> • </td></tr> <tr> <td style="width:5%;">  </td> <td colspan="2" style="background:#009761; width:20%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Fallacies_of_ambiguity" title="Category:Fallacies of ambiguity"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Fallacies of ambiguity:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_accent" title="Fallacy of accent">Fallacy of accent</a> • <a href="/wiki/Equivocation" title="Equivocation">Equivocation</a> • <a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_amphiboly" title="Fallacy of amphiboly">Fallacy of amphiboly</a> • <a href="/wiki/Quote_mining" title="Quote mining">Quote mining</a> • <a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_ambiguity" title="Fallacy of ambiguity">Fallacy of ambiguity</a> • <a href="/wiki/Moral_equivalence" title="Moral equivalence">Moral equivalence</a> • <a href="/wiki/Scope_fallacy" title="Scope fallacy">Scope fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Suppressed_correlative" title="Suppressed correlative">Suppressed correlative</a> • <a href="/wiki/Not_as_bad_as" title="Not as bad as">Not as bad as</a> • <a href="/wiki/Etymology" title="Etymology">Etymology</a> • <a href="/wiki/Continuum_fallacy" title="Continuum fallacy">Continuum fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Wronger_than_wrong" title="Wronger than wrong">Wronger than wrong</a> • <a href="/wiki/Definitional_fallacies" title="Definitional fallacies">Definitional fallacies</a> • <a href="/wiki/Code_word" title="Code word">Code word</a> • <a href="/wiki/Phantom_distinction" title="Phantom distinction">Phantom distinction</a> • </td></tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" style="background:#009761; width:25%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Formal_fallacies" title="Category:Formal fallacies"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Formal fallacies:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/Confusion_of_the_inverse" title="Confusion of the inverse">Confusion of the inverse</a> • <a href="/wiki/Denying_the_antecedent" title="Denying the antecedent">Denying the antecedent</a> • <a href="/wiki/Non_sequitur" title="Non sequitur">Non sequitur</a> • <a href="/wiki/Affirmative_conclusion_from_a_negative_premise" title="Affirmative conclusion from a negative premise">Affirmative conclusion from a negative premise</a> • <a href="/wiki/Not_even_wrong" title="Not even wrong">Not even wrong</a> • <a href="/wiki/Chewbacca_Defense" title="Chewbacca Defense">Chewbacca Defense</a> • <a href="/wiki/Affirming_a_disjunct" title="Affirming a disjunct">Affirming a disjunct</a> • <a href="/wiki/Illicit_process" title="Illicit process">Illicit process</a> • <a href="/wiki/Four-term_fallacy" title="Four-term fallacy">Four-term fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Negative_conclusion_from_affirmative_premises" title="Negative conclusion from affirmative premises">Negative conclusion from affirmative premises</a> • <a href="/wiki/Fallacy_fallacy" title="Fallacy fallacy">Fallacy fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Substituting_explanation_for_premise" title="Substituting explanation for premise">Substituting explanation for premise</a> • <a href="/wiki/Enthymeme" title="Enthymeme">Enthymeme</a> • <a href="/wiki/Syllogism" title="Syllogism">Syllogism</a> • <a href="/wiki/Formal_fallacy" title="Formal fallacy">Formal fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Existential_assumption" title="Existential assumption">Existential assumption</a> • <a href="/wiki/Masked_man_fallacy" title="Masked man fallacy">Masked man fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Self-refuting_idea" title="Self-refuting idea">Self-refuting idea</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_by_gibberish" title="Argument by gibberish">Argument by gibberish</a> • <a href="/wiki/One_single_proof" title="One single proof">One single proof</a> • <a href="/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent" title="Affirming the consequent">Affirming the consequent</a> • <a href="/wiki/False_dilemma" title="False dilemma">False dilemma</a> • <a href="/wiki/Conjunction_fallacy" title="Conjunction fallacy">Conjunction fallacy</a> • </td></tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" style="background:#009761; width:25%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Fallacious_arguments" title="Category:Fallacious arguments"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Fallacious arguments:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/Bumblebee_argument" title="Bumblebee argument">Bumblebee argument</a> • <a href="/wiki/Fatwa_envy" title="Fatwa envy">Fatwa envy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Gotcha_argument" title="Gotcha argument">Gotcha argument</a> • <a href="/wiki/Hoyle%27s_fallacy" title="Hoyle's fallacy">Hoyle's fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Intuition_pump" title="Intuition pump">Intuition pump</a> • <a href="/wiki/Logic_and_Creation" title="Logic and Creation">Logic and Creation</a> • <a href="/wiki/Not_Circular_Reasoning" title="Not Circular Reasoning">Not Circular Reasoning</a> • <a href="/wiki/Peanut_butter_argument" title="Peanut butter argument">Peanut butter argument</a> • <a href="/wiki/Great_Beethoven_fallacy" title="Great Beethoven fallacy">Great Beethoven fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_unique_founding_conditions" title="Fallacy of unique founding conditions">Fallacy of unique founding conditions</a> • <a href="/wiki/Evil_is_the_absence_of_God" title="Evil is the absence of God">Evil is the absence of God</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_from_first_cause" title="Argument from first cause">Argument from first cause</a> • <a href="/wiki/How_do_you_know%3F_Were_you_there%3F" title="How do you know? Were you there?">How do you know? Were you there?</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_from_design" title="Argument from design">Argument from design</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_from_beauty" title="Argument from beauty">Argument from beauty</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_nature" title="Appeal to nature">Appeal to nature</a> • <a href="/wiki/Solferino_fallacy" title="Solferino fallacy">Solferino fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Religious_scientists" title="Religious scientists">Religious scientists</a> • <a href="/wiki/Nothing_to_hide" title="Nothing to hide">Nothing to hide</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_from_fine_tuning" title="Argument from fine tuning">Argument from fine tuning</a> • <a href="/wiki/Creep_shaming" title="Creep shaming">Creep shaming</a> • <a href="/wiki/%22I_used_to_be_an_atheist%22" title=""I used to be an atheist"">"I used to be an atheist"</a> • <a href="/wiki/Atheism_as_a_religion" title="Atheism as a religion">Atheism as a religion</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum" title="Argumentum ad populum">Argumentum ad populum</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_from_morality" title="Argument from morality">Argument from morality</a> • <a href="/wiki/Anti-environmentalism" title="Anti-environmentalism">Anti-environmentalism</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_bias" title="Appeal to bias">Appeal to bias</a> • <a href="/wiki/Apophasis" title="Apophasis">Apophasis</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_nauseam" title="Argumentum ad nauseam">Argumentum ad nauseam</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_censorship" title="Appeal to censorship">Appeal to censorship</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_sarcina_inserta" title="Argumentum ad sarcina inserta">Argumentum ad sarcina inserta</a> • <a href="/wiki/Blaming_the_victim" title="Blaming the victim">Blaming the victim</a> • <a href="/wiki/Bait-and-switch" title="Bait-and-switch">Bait-and-switch</a> • <a href="/wiki/Danth%27s_Law" title="Danth's Law">Danth's Law</a> • <a href="/wiki/Chewbacca_Defense" title="Chewbacca Defense">Chewbacca Defense</a> • <a href="/wiki/Canard" title="Canard">Canard</a> • <a href="/wiki/DARVO" title="DARVO">DARVO</a> • <a href="/wiki/Demonization" title="Demonization">Demonization</a> • <a href="/wiki/Escape_hatch" title="Escape hatch">Escape hatch</a> • <a href="/wiki/Friend_argument" title="Friend argument">Friend argument</a> • <a href="/wiki/Everyone_is_racist" title="Everyone is racist">Everyone is racist</a> • <a href="/wiki/Gish_Gallop" title="Gish Gallop">Gish Gallop</a> • <a href="/wiki/Greece-baiting" title="Greece-baiting">Greece-baiting</a> • <a href="/wiki/Gore%27s_Law" title="Gore's Law">Gore's Law</a> • <a href="/wiki/Ham_Hightail" title="Ham Hightail">Ham Hightail</a> • <a href="/wiki/Just_asking_questions" title="Just asking questions">Just asking questions</a> • <a href="/wiki/Leading_question" title="Leading question">Leading question</a> • <a href="/wiki/Loaded_language" title="Loaded language">Loaded language</a> • <a href="/wiki/Linking_to_authority" title="Linking to authority">Linking to authority</a> • <a href="/wiki/Loaded_question" title="Loaded question">Loaded question</a> • <a href="/wiki/Lying_by_omission" title="Lying by omission">Lying by omission</a> • <a href="/wiki/Motte_and_bailey" title="Motte and bailey">Motte and bailey</a> • <a href="/wiki/Nazi_analogies" title="Nazi analogies">Nazi analogies</a> • <a href="/wiki/Moving_the_goalposts" title="Moving the goalposts">Moving the goalposts</a> • <a href="/wiki/One_single_proof" title="One single proof">One single proof</a> • <a href="/wiki/Pink-baiting" title="Pink-baiting">Pink-baiting</a> • <a href="/wiki/One-way_hash_argument" title="One-way hash argument">One-way hash argument</a> • <a href="/wiki/Pathos_gambit" title="Pathos gambit">Pathos gambit</a> • <a href="/wiki/Quote_mining" title="Quote mining">Quote mining</a> • <a href="/wiki/Poisoning_the_well" title="Poisoning the well">Poisoning the well</a> • <a href="/wiki/Quidquid_latine_dictum_sit,_altum_videtur" title="Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur">Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur</a> • <a href="/wiki/Race_card" title="Race card">Race card</a> • <a href="/wiki/Red-baiting" title="Red-baiting">Red-baiting</a> • <a href="/wiki/Red_herring" title="Red herring">Red herring</a> • <a href="/wiki/Release_the_data" title="Release the data">Release the data</a> • <a href="/wiki/Science_was_wrong_before" title="Science was wrong before">Science was wrong before</a> • <a href="/wiki/Shill_gambit" title="Shill gambit">Shill gambit</a> • <a href="/wiki/Straw_man" title="Straw man">Straw man</a> • <a href="/wiki/Silent_Majority" title="Silent Majority">Silent Majority</a> • <a href="/wiki/Uncertainty_tactic" title="Uncertainty tactic">Uncertainty tactic</a> • <a href="/wiki/Style_over_substance" title="Style over substance">Style over substance</a> • <a href="/wiki/Terrorism-baiting" title="Terrorism-baiting">Terrorism-baiting</a> • <a href="/wiki/Weasel_word" title="Weasel word">Weasel word</a> • <a href="/wiki/What%27s_the_harm_(logical_fallacy)" title="What's the harm (logical fallacy)">What's the harm (logical fallacy)</a> • <a href="/wiki/Whataboutism" title="Whataboutism">Whataboutism</a> • <a href="/wiki/Bullshit" title="Bullshit">Bullshit</a> • <a href="/wiki/Logical_fallacy" title="Logical fallacy">Logical fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Banana_argument" title="Banana argument">Banana argument</a> • <a href="/wiki/Scapegoat" title="Scapegoat">Scapegoat</a> • <a href="/wiki/How_come_there_are_still_monkeys%3F" title="How come there are still monkeys?">How come there are still monkeys?</a> • <a href="/wiki/Anti-racist_is_a_code_word_for_anti-white" title="Anti-racist is a code word for anti-white">Anti-racist is a code word for anti-white</a> • <a href="/wiki/Ontological_argument" title="Ontological argument">Ontological argument</a> • <a href="/wiki/Omnipotence_paradox" title="Omnipotence paradox">Omnipotence paradox</a> • <a href="/wiki/Presuppositionalism" title="Presuppositionalism">Presuppositionalism</a> • <a href="/wiki/Just_a_joke" title="Just a joke">Just a joke</a> • <a href="/wiki/Countless_counterfeits_fallacy" title="Countless counterfeits fallacy">Countless counterfeits fallacy</a> • </td></tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" style="background:#009761; width:25%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Conditional_fallacies" title="Category:Conditional fallacies"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Conditional fallacies:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/Slippery_slope" title="Slippery slope">Slippery slope</a> • <a href="/wiki/What%27s_the_harm_(logical_fallacy)" title="What's the harm (logical fallacy)">What's the harm (logical fallacy)</a> • <a href="/wiki/Special_pleading" title="Special pleading">Special pleading</a> • <a href="/wiki/Conditional_fallacy" title="Conditional fallacy">Conditional fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/On_the_spot_fallacy" title="On the spot fallacy">On the spot fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_the_minority" title="Appeal to the minority">Appeal to the minority</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum" title="Argumentum ad populum">Argumentum ad populum</a> • <a href="/wiki/Galileo_gambit" title="Galileo gambit">Galileo gambit</a> • <a href="/wiki/Professor_of_nothing" title="Professor of nothing">Professor of nothing</a> • </td></tr> <tr> <td style="width:5%;">  </td> <td colspan="2" style="background:#009761; width:20%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Genetic_fallacies" title="Category:Genetic fallacies"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Genetic fallacies:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/Genetic_fallacy" title="Genetic fallacy">Genetic fallacy</a> • </td></tr> <tr> <td style="width:5%;">  </td> <td style="width:5%;">  </td> <td colspan="1" style="background:#009761; width:15%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Appeals_to_authority" title="Category:Appeals to authority"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Appeals to authority:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/Ipse_dixit" title="Ipse dixit">Ipse dixit</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_confidence" title="Appeal to confidence">Appeal to confidence</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum" title="Argumentum ad populum">Argumentum ad populum</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argument_from_authority" title="Argument from authority">Argument from authority</a> • <a href="/wiki/Linking_to_authority" title="Linking to authority">Linking to authority</a> • <a href="/wiki/Silent_Majority" title="Silent Majority">Silent Majority</a> • <a href="/wiki/Invincible_authority" title="Invincible authority">Invincible authority</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_celebrity" title="Appeal to celebrity">Appeal to celebrity</a> • <a href="/wiki/Ultracrepidarianism" title="Ultracrepidarianism">Ultracrepidarianism</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_the_minority" title="Appeal to the minority">Appeal to the minority</a> • <a href="/wiki/Galileo_gambit" title="Galileo gambit">Galileo gambit</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_identity" title="Appeal to identity">Appeal to identity</a> • <a href="/wiki/Weasel_word" title="Weasel word">Weasel word</a> • <a href="/wiki/Professor_of_nothing" title="Professor of nothing">Professor of nothing</a> • <a href="/wiki/Euthyphro_dilemma" title="Euthyphro dilemma">Euthyphro dilemma</a> • <a href="/wiki/Divine_command_theory" title="Divine command theory">Divine command theory</a> • </td></tr> <tr> <td style="width:5%;">  </td> <td style="width:5%;">  </td> <td colspan="1" style="background:#009761; width:15%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Ad_hominem" title="Category:Ad hominem"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Ad hominem:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/Ad_iram" title="Ad iram">Ad iram</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_cellarium" title="Argumentum ad cellarium">Argumentum ad cellarium</a> • <a href="/wiki/Bulverism" title="Bulverism">Bulverism</a> • <a href="/wiki/Poisoning_the_well" title="Poisoning the well">Poisoning the well</a> • <a href="/wiki/Blaming_the_victim" title="Blaming the victim">Blaming the victim</a> • <a href="/wiki/Tu_quoque" title="Tu quoque">Tu quoque</a> • <a href="/wiki/Whataboutism" title="Whataboutism">Whataboutism</a> • <a href="/wiki/Nutpicking" title="Nutpicking">Nutpicking</a> • <a href="/wiki/Jonanism" title="Jonanism">Jonanism</a> • <a href="/wiki/Demonization" title="Demonization">Demonization</a> • <a href="/wiki/Shill_gambit" title="Shill gambit">Shill gambit</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_bias" title="Appeal to bias">Appeal to bias</a> • <a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_opposition" title="Fallacy of opposition">Fallacy of opposition</a> • <a href="/wiki/Association_fallacy" title="Association fallacy">Association fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Damning_with_faint_praise" title="Damning with faint praise">Damning with faint praise</a> • <a href="/wiki/Pathos_gambit" title="Pathos gambit">Pathos gambit</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_identity" title="Appeal to identity">Appeal to identity</a> • <a href="/wiki/Argumentum_ad_hominem" title="Argumentum ad hominem">Argumentum ad hominem</a> • <a href="/wiki/Nazi_analogies" title="Nazi analogies">Nazi analogies</a> • <a href="/wiki/Not_an_argument" title="Not an argument">Not an argument</a> • <a href="/wiki/Nothing_to_hide" title="Nothing to hide">Nothing to hide</a> • <a href="/wiki/Scapegoat" title="Scapegoat">Scapegoat</a> • <a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E4%B8%8B%E5%AE%A4%E8%AE%BA%E8%AF%81" title="地下室论证">地下室论证</a> • </td></tr> <tr> <td style="width:5%;">  </td> <td colspan="2" style="background:#009761; width:20%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Imprecision_fallacies" title="Category:Imprecision fallacies"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Imprecision fallacies:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/Apex_fallacy" title="Apex fallacy">Apex fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Overprecision" title="Overprecision">Overprecision</a> • <a href="/wiki/Cherry_picking" title="Cherry picking">Cherry picking</a> • <a href="/wiki/Overgeneralization" title="Overgeneralization">Overgeneralization</a> • <a href="/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy" title="Texas sharpshooter fallacy">Texas sharpshooter fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/False_analogy" title="False analogy">False analogy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Appeal_to_fiction" title="Appeal to fiction">Appeal to fiction</a> • <a href="/wiki/Spotlight_fallacy" title="Spotlight fallacy">Spotlight fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Pragmatic_fallacy" title="Pragmatic fallacy">Pragmatic fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Selection_bias" title="Selection bias">Selection bias</a> • <a href="/wiki/Anecdotal_evidence" title="Anecdotal evidence">Anecdotal evidence</a> • <a href="/wiki/Category_mistake" title="Category mistake">Category mistake</a> • <a href="/wiki/Nutpicking" title="Nutpicking">Nutpicking</a> • <a href="/wiki/Imprecision_fallacy" title="Imprecision fallacy">Imprecision fallacy</a> • <a href="/wiki/Confounding_factor" title="Confounding factor">Confounding factor</a> • <a href="/wiki/Fallacy_of_accident" title="Fallacy of accident">Fallacy of accident</a> • <a href="/wiki/Neyman%27s_bias" title="Neyman's bias">Neyman's bias</a> • </td></tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" style="background:#009761; width:25%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Valid_logical_methods" title="Category:Valid logical methods"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Valid logical methods:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/Rapoport%27s_Rules" title="Rapoport's Rules">Rapoport's Rules</a> • <a href="/wiki/Negative_evidence" title="Negative evidence">Negative evidence</a> • <a href="/wiki/Reductio_ad_absurdum" title="Reductio ad absurdum">Reductio ad absurdum</a> • </td></tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" style="background:#009761; width:25%; text-align:right;"><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Fallacy_collections" title="Category:Fallacy collections"><span style="color:white; font-size:125%">Fallacy collections:</span></a></b> </td> <td style="background:#FFFFFF;"> <a href="/wiki/SeekFind" title="SeekFind">SeekFind</a> • <a href="/wiki/Nizkor_Project" title="Nizkor Project">Nizkor Project</a> • <a href="/wiki/Fallacy_Files" title="Fallacy Files">Fallacy Files</a> • <a href="/wiki/Your_Logical_Fallacy_Is" title="Your Logical Fallacy Is">Your Logical Fallacy Is</a> • <a href="/wiki/Logically_Fallacious" title="Logically Fallacious">Logically Fallacious</a> • </td></tr> </tbody></table> </div>    </div></div><div class="printfooter">Retrieved from "<a dir="ltr" href="https://rationalwiki.org/w/index.php?title=Gambler%27s_fallacy&oldid=2570172">https://rationalwiki.org/w/index.php?title=Gambler%27s_fallacy&oldid=2570172</a>"</div> <div id="catlinks" class="catlinks" data-mw="interface"><div 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