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中國人為何湧入股市「賭場」 - 紐約時報中文網

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class="share-btn"><i class="icon-forward"></i></div></div></div></div><figure class="article-span-photo"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/17/business/00nw-stocks/00nw-stocks-master1050.jpg" width="1050" height="735" alt=""><figcaption><span></span> <cite>Lisk Feng</cite></figcaption></figure><div class="row"><div class="article-left"><section class="article-body"><div class="article-partial"><div class="article-body-item col-lg-5"><div class="article-paragraph">他們把中國的股市稱為「賭場」,然而卻對其趨之若鶩。他們投入資金,賭的是政府確實終於想讓經濟走出泥潭,而這個經濟困境此前是政府一手創造出來的。他們懷著極為不安的心情投機,尋求短期收益。</div><div class="article-paragraph">中國政府在最近幾週<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20241014/china-economy-finance-minister/">接二連三地</a>出台了旨在刺激國內<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20240903/china-economy-consumption/">經濟</a>的政策,激發了中國的中產階級加大對股市的投資,推動股市出現了2008年以來的最大<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20241008/china-stocks-csi-300/">反彈</a>。</div><div class="article-paragraph">在最近的採訪中,投資者表示,在國家似乎走錯道路的時候做點什麼,甚至是將積蓄投入一個充滿風險的市場,讓他們有一種掌控感。雖然他們擔心政府的所作所為更多地是刺激市場,而不是對經濟增長有所幫助,但在目前的通貨緊縮階段,他們仍不願放棄一種熟悉的、充滿泡沫的感覺。</div><div class="article-paragraph">「我們都是『<a rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" href="https://chinaheritage.net/journal/xi-jinpings-harvest-from-reaping-garlic-chives-to-exploiting-huminerals/">韭菜</a>』,任由統治者收割,」家住北京的王先生說,他在股市投了100多萬元。他用的「韭菜」一詞是中國網民們描述老百姓就像這種菜,隨時可從地裡收割的說法。「但如果我主動參與到股市中去,至少我能控制自己的命運,」他說。</div></div></div><div class="big_ad" id="medium-rectangle-ad-0" data-target="{&quot;pos&quot;:&quot;mid1&quot;,&quot;adv&quot;:&quot;&quot;}"><small>廣告</small></div><div class="article-partial"><div class="article-body-item col-lg-5"><div class="article-paragraph">王先生是我上週採訪的十名中國投資者之一,採訪是通過影片通話、電子郵件或短訊進行的。他們都是專業人士或企業主。他們有錢投資,但都不是超級富豪。</div><div class="article-paragraph">他們都要求我在文章中不要透露他們的全名,以免遭到報復。政府已審查了批評其近期措施的文章和評論,一些人說,這些措施刺激股市反彈的貢獻大於推動經濟復甦的貢獻。</div><div class="article-paragraph"><figure class="article-inline-photo large"><div class="img-box"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/18/multimedia/00newworld-vqwf/00newworld-vqwf-master1050.jpg" alt="上海證券交易所的工作人員,攝於1992年。中國在20世紀90年代初恢復了股票交易。" data-src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/18/multimedia/00newworld-vqwf/00newworld-vqwf-master1050.jpg"></div><figcaption><span>上海證券交易所的工作人員,攝於1992年。中國在20世紀90年代初恢復了股票交易。</span> <cite>Nicholas Kristof/The New York Times</cite></figcaption></figure></div><div class="article-paragraph">中國是在上個世紀90年代初恢復股票交易的,那是中國經濟改革試驗的一部分。為了開戶,想投資的人得排好幾個小時有時甚至好幾天的隊。</div><div class="article-paragraph">如今,中國股市的交易帳戶超過2億個,幾乎全部為個人投資者。但只有不到25%的帳戶是活躍狀態。中國的證券交易所已被證明不是為中國老百姓創造財富的地方,由於波動太大,大多數老百姓避開了股市。</div><div class="article-paragraph">由於中國股市受到政府的嚴格控制,大多數中國最具競爭力的大企業基本上無法或不願意在本國上市。中國股市的表現與國內經濟幾乎沒有關聯。上海交易所的上證綜合指數達到最高點是在2007年,遠早於中國經濟崛起見頂的時間。而且,上證綜合指數不包括中國非常成功的初創企業,如2014年在紐約上市的阿里巴巴和2004年在香港首次公開募股的騰訊。</div><div class="article-paragraph">老百姓主要投資房地產,房地產約佔中國家庭資產的70%。雖然人們的財富隨著房價上漲不斷膨脹,但擁有全國所有土地的政府收穫了大部分經濟利益。現在房地產市場已經<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20240524/china-property-crisis/">崩潰</a>,政府正在引誘大家進入股市。</div><div class="article-paragraph">我採訪的投資者告訴我,他們知道投資股市的風險,但他們覺得他們別無選擇,因為這個國家的政府控制著土地、銀行,以及哪些公司能在證券交易所上市。</div><div class="article-paragraph"><figure class="article-inline-photo large"><div class="img-box"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/17/multimedia/00newworld-ztwf/00newworld-ztwf-master1050.jpg" alt="北京證券交易所,攝於今年7月。中國股市正在經歷一個上個月開始的反彈。" data-src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/17/multimedia/00newworld-ztwf/00newworld-ztwf-master1050.jpg"></div><figcaption><span>北京證券交易所,攝於今年7月。中國股市正在經歷一個上個月開始的反彈。</span> <cite>Adek Berry/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images</cite></figcaption></figure></div><div class="article-paragraph">「股市甚至比賭場還糟糕,因為賭場有規則,而我們的『賭場』沒有規則,」王先生說。「更有甚者,這個賭場的『老闆』能參與賭博,他們還能看到我們的牌。」</div><div class="article-paragraph">他說,他知道最近的反彈也許是個「圈套」,但他覺得自己別無選擇。「這樣做,我能找到一個離出口較近的地方,所以當需要逃離時,我能比其他人跑得更快,」王先生說。</div></div></div><div class="big_ad" id="medium-rectangle-ad-1" data-target="{&quot;pos&quot;:&quot;mid2&quot;,&quot;adv&quot;:&quot;&quot;}"><small>廣告</small></div><div class="article-partial"><div class="article-body-item col-lg-5"><div class="article-paragraph">另一名來自上海的投資者也姓王,他在今年9月30日把錢投進了股市。他的說法總結了我採訪的人的普遍情緒:大家現在投資不是因為他們信任政府,或者以前被政府騙過。「這只是個他們願意下的賭注,不管輸贏,他們都能接受,」他在一封電子郵件中寫道。</div><div class="article-paragraph">上海的一名姓安的軟體工程師說,政府2021年打擊了在線教育行業後,他失去了在一家在線教育初創公司的工作和股票期權。後來,他已經付款的一套房一直沒有建成交付。他和其他購房者進行抗議後,他還被警方拘留過。</div><div class="article-paragraph">安先生說,股市今年9月開始上漲時,妻子對他說,「我們來賭一把吧。」他們預留了一些用於償還信用卡債務的錢和應急資金,把其餘的錢(也就是他們手中近90%的現金)都投進了股市,總共投了200多萬。他們擔心,如果政府推出大規模支出項目,通貨膨脹率會在未來幾年飆升。</div><div class="article-paragraph">他們的想法是,投資股市可能會虧錢,但什麼都不做也可能虧錢,因為如果通貨膨脹,他們的銀行存款會貶值。但是,如果他們運氣好呢?</div><div class="article-paragraph">我採訪的另一名投資者是謝先生,他是山東省一家小型資產管理公司的創始人。他說,他認為股市上漲是一個難得的投資機會。</div><div class="article-paragraph">20世紀90年代,謝先生上小學的時候,他的父母都從國企下崗。他們用積蓄投資了中國新的股市,經歷了許多漲跌。謝先生從上大學的時候開始炒股,並從2018年開始為他人管理資金。</div><div class="article-paragraph"><figure class="article-inline-photo"><div class="img-box"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/17/multimedia/00newworld-qzgm/00newworld-qzgm-jumbo.jpg" alt="上海曾在1999年出現過股票全盤下跌的情況。" data-src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/17/multimedia/00newworld-qzgm/00newworld-qzgm-jumbo.jpg"></div><figcaption><span>上海曾在1999年出現過股票全盤下跌的情況。</span> <cite>Liu Jin/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images</cite></figcaption></figure></div><div class="article-paragraph">今年9月初,他感覺到政府的政策正在改變,所以開始建倉,認為應該有錢可賺。但他對社群媒體上充斥的股票投機者感到不安,網上有人聲稱,目前略高於3000點的上證指數將達到1萬點。</div><div class="article-paragraph">他認為這輪反彈將是短暫的。「金融市場無法解決中國面臨的根本性的長期問題,」謝先生說,他指的是政府讓老百姓越來越難以獲得財富和自由表達。他說,<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20241010/china-stocks-young-investors/">蜂擁入市</a>的年輕人應該對股市持更多的懷疑態度。</div></div></div><div class="big_ad" id="medium-rectangle-ad-2" data-target="{&quot;pos&quot;:&quot;mid3&quot;,&quot;adv&quot;:&quot;&quot;}"><small>廣告</small></div><div class="article-partial"><div class="article-body-item col-lg-5"><div class="article-paragraph">程先生是我採訪的另一名投資者,他認為中國面臨著更大的問題,遠非市場反彈就能解決。</div><div class="article-paragraph">程先生曾在今年2月告訴我,他剛在股市上損失了360萬元。</div><div class="article-paragraph">作為一名企業諮詢公司的老闆,他發現,在習近平領導下,中國的<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20181008/china-economy-private-enterprise/">商業環境</a>正在變得對民營企業越來越不利。「我從沒見過有人把一手好牌打得這麼差,」他在當月聯繫我提到習近平時寫道。</div><div class="article-paragraph">在最近的這次採訪中,他說他投資股市就像打麻將一樣。</div><div class="article-paragraph">「我以旁觀者的心態來看待這件事。我已經買了門票,」他說,他指的是他今年早些時候損失的錢。「我不妨把這部悲劇電影從頭看到尾。」</div></div><div class="article-body-aside col-lg-3"></div></div></section><footer class="author-info"><span><p><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/li-yuan">袁莉</a>為《紐約時報》撰寫「<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/topic/20180823/the-new-new-world/">新新世界</a>」專欄,專注中國及亞洲科技、商業和政治交叉議題。<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/li-yuan">點擊查看更多關於她的信息。</a></p><p>翻譯:紐約時報中文網</p><div data-poster="" class=""><div 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