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【山西大土河 王健】预计节后焦炭价格有阶段性下调的预期 调整空间有限-我的钢铁网
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<p>焦炭价格从2020年7月下旬至今累计上涨15轮，累计涨幅1000元/吨，持续周期长，涨幅高，历史罕见，本轮行情一共有三个阶段：</p> <p>第一阶段：7月下旬至10月中旬，累计涨价4次，累计涨幅200元/吨。铁水持续创出新高，需求旺盛，大多钢厂库存运行至合理库存线以下，导致部分北方钢厂焦炭库存持续创出近几年新低，焦炭价格上涨再所难免；</p> <p>第二阶段：10月下旬至12月中旬，累计涨价5次，累计涨幅250元/吨。山西焦化退产能政策出现了实质性进展，随后在河北、河南以及孝义持续推出焦化去产能政策并付诸实施，在铁水创新高的同时，供给端却出现了净减量，大多钢厂的库存已运行至安全库存线以下，助推焦炭价格持续走高；</p> <p>第三阶段：12月下旬至1月下旬，累计涨价6次，累计涨幅550元/吨，该阶段提涨频率加快，单次提涨幅度由50元/吨提高至100元/吨。海外需求激增，多家钢厂因焦炭库存告急面临停限产，铁水仍维持高产叠加冬储的刚需，焦炭的各环节和区域库存均出现了大幅的持续共振下降，加剧了需求紧张局面，加快了焦炭价格的上涨。</p> <p>回顾本轮焦炭上涨行情后，大家基本上对焦炭价格为什么能涨这么高和这么长时间有了一个简单的了解。作为2021年一季度，需要关注以下几点：</p> <p>1、焦企的主动权仍大于钢厂。其中，焦企可以利用套期保值锁定产品利润、对客户进行选择性平衡发货、增加海外出口订单；而钢厂则会选择优化业务模式重新布局采购渠道、利用检修和限产减少原料需求、买盘面降低整体库存加权价格。上下游生产经营动态优劣势对比十分明显。</p> <p>2、节后焦炭价格有阶段性下调的预期，调整空间有限。焦炭价格下调并不意味着行情的反转，而是目前随着钢厂主动铁水减量，因焦炭紧缺面临停限产的钢厂数量有所减少，对焦炭的急需有所下降以及利润亏损造成的，但多数钢厂的库存仍很低，在安全库存水平以下运行的钢厂仍然比比皆是，对焦炭的补库仍将持续，连安全库存都保证不了，更就谈不上冬储了。焦炭价格下调的空间相对有限，只是上下游之间的利润重新分配，毕竟焦企也不愿看到因钢厂停限产而带来自身需求的下降。</p> <p>3、抛现买期，建立虚拟库存。根据需求周期推算，现货价格高点已现，而期现基差虽不充足但已具备了相当不错的性价比了，尤其是拥有长协销售渠道和刚需的贸易商、南方钢厂而言，可以开始逐渐建立虚拟库存，进行恰当的库存管理来平衡市场风险。</p> <p>4、注意疫情、宏观等因素造成的系统性崩塌风险。在目前盘面运行至预期相对比较足的区间，仍难看到买盘的增仓行为，说明大家还是在担忧疫情的不确定性是否会造成需求方面的一些影响，以及宏观层面的资金流动性变差是否会对市场整体的流通环节造成何种程度的影响，包括焦炭第一轮价格下调究竟以何种方式及什么时间落地，从而去推演未来的行情走势，诸多的不确定性成为近期盘面震荡弱势运行的主基调。一旦这些不确定性逐一被证伪，新的投资机会自然就会显现。</p> <p></p> <p>山西大土河始创于1985年，经过三十多年的发展，在保障劳动就业、社会公益、集中供热、社会办学等方面做出了巨大贡献,是吕梁市的龙头企业和纳税大户。</p> <p>公司以<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0502-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>煤炭</a>、焦化、教育三大板块为主业，兼营国际贸易、物流、化产、发电、供热等配套辅助产业，形成了煤--焦--化和煤--电一体化发展的两条产业链。</p> <p>根据公司的发展，于2002年成立了山西大土河焦化有限责任公司，其旗下共有18个子公司。为了适应山西省资源整合政策对山西大土河焦化有限责任公司主体责任的要求，于2009年成立了山西大土河矿业投资有限公司，其职能是对所有矿井的安全生产、基本建设和发展规划实施专业化管理与技术服务。为了实现集团集约化管理，于2013年成立了山西大土河能源科技股份有限公司，其职能是对所有公司实行职能化集中管理。</p> <p>目前公司共有煤矿企业6座,其中离石区3座,中阳县3座,总产能630万吨/年，井田总面积为54.0719平方公里，资源总储量为52237万吨。</p> <p>山西大土河焦化有限责任公司生产的“大土河牌”一级<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>冶金焦</a>是我们的支柱产品，在国内外市场上享有很高的信誉。2009年之前，80%的焦炭产品出口，贸易量约占我国焦炭出口总量的10%左右。后根据市场发展形势转为内销，主要客户为国内大<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010107-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>型钢</a>铁企业。稳定的产品质量和良好的信用度赢得了国内外客户的一致认可和赞誉。</p> <p>在经济发展的同时，大土河积极承担社会责任，致力于教育、慈善、文化、新农村建设、荒山绿化等各项公益事业。累计投资1.8亿元修建大刘、大七公路;7.7亿元实现城市集中供热550万平方米;2007年投资13亿元创办凤山教育园区，一个集幼儿园、实验小学、初级中学、高级中学规划为一体的现代化封闭教育园区，总体规划项目总占地2032.8亩，可建筑用地1046亩，建筑总面积69万平方米。</p> <p>企业内部设立贫困职工爱心救助基金; 5000多万元用于荒山绿化，实现大苗造林1247.72亩，总计植树37万株，使公司绿色覆盖率达到42%;贾董事长个人累计为灾区捐款达746万元;并多年持续资助贫困大学生完成学业。</p> <p>2008年公司与上海华东理工大学组建了“山西大土河华东理工大学乒乓球俱乐部”，并于2012年在世界冠军刘诗雯的带领下勇夺女乒超级联赛冠军。</p> <p></p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：甘春连 021-26093883 </br> 资讯监督：张鹏 021-26093198 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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