As the climate crisis worsens, the warming outlook stagnates

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class="headline__social social hidden-xs hidden-sm"> <span class="social__label">Share</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?status=As%20the%20climate%20crisis%20worsens%2C%20the%20warming%20outlook%20stagnates%3A%20http%3A//climateactiontracker.org/publications/the-climate-crisis-worsens-the-warming-outlook-stagnates/" class="social__item" target="_blank"> <span class="icon icon-icons_31"></span> </a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=http%3A//climateactiontracker.org/publications/the-climate-crisis-worsens-the-warming-outlook-stagnates/" class="social__item" target="_blank"> <span class="icon icon-icons_32"></span> </a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=http%3A//climateactiontracker.org/publications/the-climate-crisis-worsens-the-warming-outlook-stagnates/&title=As%20the%20climate%20crisis%20worsens%2C%20the%20warming%20outlook%20stagnates&summary=&source=" class="social__item" target="_blank"> <span class="icon 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href="/documents/1277/CAT_2024-11-14_GlobalUpdate_COP29.pdf" class="attachments__attachment-title"> CAT_2024-11-14_GlobalUpdate_COP29.pdf </a> <div class="attachments__attachment-meta">3.3 MB pdf Document</div> </div> </div> <div class="attachments__attachment attachments__attachment--pdf"> <a href="/documents/1280/CAT_2024-11-14_Briefing_NDCsNeededFor2035.pdf" class="attachments__attachment-icon"> <span class="icon"></span> </a> <div class="attachments__attachment-text"> <a target="_blank" href="/documents/1280/CAT_2024-11-14_Briefing_NDCsNeededFor2035.pdf" class="attachments__attachment-title"> CAT_2024-11-14_Briefing_NDCsNeededFor2035.pdf </a> <div class="attachments__attachment-meta">3.6 MB pdf Document</div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section content-section--has-left-side"> <div class="container"> <div class="content-section__left-side"> <h3 id="section__summary"> Summary </h3> </div> <div class="content-section__content"> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="f27qf"><b>Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, our annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021.</b> The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.</p><p data-block-key="70c12">This three-year standstill underscores a critical disconnect between the reality of climate change and the urgency that governments are giving to the policies needed to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions, driving global warming at a rate of close to 0.3°C per decade.</p></div> <div class="content-block image-block text-center"> <figure> <img class="img-fluid" src="/media/images/CAT_2024-11_CAT-Thermometer_4Bars_Annotation.width-777.png" alt=""/> </figure> <a download class="btn btn-dark btn--icon-right btn--icon-download" href="/media/original_images/2024/11/CAT_2024-11_CAT-Thermometer_4Bars_Annotation.png">High resolution</a> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section content-section--has-left-side"> <div class="container"> <div class="content-section__left-side"> <h3 id="section__the-threats-ahead"> The threats ahead </h3> </div> <div class="content-section__content"> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="gztz5">We note that the current policy warming of 2.7°C is a median estimate with a 50% chance of being higher or lower, and our knowledge of the climate system tells us that there is a 33% chance of it being 3.0°C or higher and a 10% chance of being 3.6°C or higher.</p><p data-block-key="e7adb">The election of Donald Trump as President would impact the projected temperature levels that we present here, but it is uncertain to what extent. It could add 0.04 °C of warming by 2100 to our current policy estimate of 2.7°C (assuming the rollback of policies is limited to the United States) to a few tenths of a degree to our optimistic scenario of 1.9°C (assuming the US net zero target is permanently removed). This would be very damaging to the prospects of limiting warming to 1.5°C.</p><p data-block-key="cuho5"></p></div> <div class="content-block image-block text-center"> <figure> <img class="img-fluid" src="/media/images/CAT_2024-11_Graph_TemperaturePathwaysto2100.width-777.png" alt=""/> </figure> <a download class="btn btn-dark btn--icon-right btn--icon-download" href="/media/original_images/2024/11/CAT_2024-11_Graph_TemperaturePathwaysto2100.png">High resolution</a> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section content-section--has-left-side"> <div class="container"> <div class="content-section__left-side"> <h3 id="section__fossil-fuel-growth-cancels-out-renewables-progress"> Fossil fuel growth cancels out renewables progress </h3> </div> <div class="content-section__content"> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="vcsx6">While renewable energy and electric vehicle deployment reported record-breaking progress: energy investments in clean energy are now double those for fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas, for the first time, while investment in clean manufacturing capacity is growing rapidly.</p><p data-block-key="esjru">However, fossil fuel subsidies remain at an all-time high and funding for fossil fuel-prolonging projects quadrupled between 2021 and 2022. Unsurprisingly, this means that our emission projections expect an emissions peak by the end of the decade, but lack the steep decline necessary in that period to reach the Paris Agreement goal.</p><p data-block-key="dsio3"></p></div> <div class="content-block image-block text-center"> <figure> <img class="img-fluid" src="/media/images/CAT_2024-11_Graph_PolicyandAction-Last5YearsOf.width-777.png" alt=""/> </figure> <a download class="btn btn-dark btn--icon-right btn--icon-download" href="/media/original_images/2024/11/CAT_2024-11_Graph_PolicyandAction-Last5YearsOfProjections.png">High resolution</a> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section content-section--has-left-side"> <div class="container"> <div class="content-section__left-side"> <h3 id="section__what-should-governments-do?"> What should governments do? </h3> </div> <div class="content-section__content"> <div class="content-block image-block text-center"> <figure> <img class="img-fluid" src="/media/images/CAT_2024-11_Graph_MajorEmittersTroikaCountries.width-777.png" alt=""/> </figure> </div> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="7gn3x">In this update, we also focus on seven large emitters (China, the United States, India, the European Union, Indonesia, Japan and Australia) and the COP “Troika” countries (the UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil) that, together, were responsible for 63% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2022.</p><p data-block-key="5tk2e">These countries need to show international leadership in order to drive climate action, including setting ambitious 2030 and 2035 emissions reduction targets, and strengthening their domestic mitigation measures to meet those targets.</p><p data-block-key="29aa0">As governments are expected to submit new NDCs, we assess what they can do to align their 2030 and new 2035 NDC targets with 1.5°C. We present 2030 and 2035 targets that align with the CAT’s modelled domestic pathways towards 1.5°C. These pathways reflect ambitious mitigation from current emissions levels.</p><p data-block-key="6cibh"></p></div> <div class="content-block image-block text-center"> <figure> <img class="img-fluid" src="/media/images/CAT_2024-11_Table_1.5alignedNDCs-InclExcl-LULU.width-777.png" alt=""/> </figure> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-section content-section--has-left-side"> <div class="container"> <div class="content-section__left-side"> <h3 id="section__find-out-more"> Find out more </h3> </div> <div class="content-section__content"> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="xy3b3">Click the buttons below to read all of our analysis. The full <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1277/CAT_2024-11-14_GlobalUpdate_COP29.pdf">CAT global temperature update</a> has details on emissions and temperature projections, NDC and net zero targets and country snapshots.</p></div> <div class="content-block"> <p class="text-center"> <a href="/documents/1277/CAT_2024-11-14_GlobalUpdate_COP29.pdf" class="btn btn-primary btn--icon-right btn--icon-arrow-right">View Global Warming Projections Update</a> </p> </div> <div class="content-block"><p data-block-key="k65l7">Our other <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1280/CAT_2024-11-14_Briefing_NDCsNeededFor2035.pdf">briefing document</a> details our 2030 and 2035 NDC target recommendations for major emitters to align to 1.5°C. You can also view the <a href="/press/release-as-the-climate-crisis-worsens-warming-outlook-stagnates/">press release</a> or see our latest <a href="/countries/">country assessments</a>.</p></div> <div class="content-block"> <p class="text-center"> <a href="/documents/1280/CAT_2024-11-14_Briefing_NDCsNeededFor2035.pdf" class="btn btn-primary btn--icon-right btn--icon-arrow-right">View NDCs needed for 2035 briefing</a> </p> </div> <div class="content-block"> <p class="text-center"> <a href="/press/release-as-the-climate-crisis-worsens-warming-outlook-stagnates/" class="btn btn-primary btn--icon-right btn--icon-arrow-right">Read the press release</a> </p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> <section class="stay-informed v-padding--3 text-center text-white" style="background-image: url('/static/images/coffee-bg.jpg')"> <div class="container"> <h3 class="stay-informed__top-text bottom-line bottom-line--white bottom-line--120-120">Stay informed</h3> <p class="stay-informed__bottom-text">Subscribe to our newsletter</p> <form target="_blank" class="stay-informed__form mx-auto" method="get" action="https://climateactiontracker.us18.list-manage.com/subscribe"> <div class="form-group"> <span class="icon icon-icons_42"></span> <input type="hidden" name="u" value="65f38fbdfe22c9fb33f53e959"/> <input type="hidden" name="id" value="77c07fb002"/> <label class="sr-only" for="stay-informed__email2">E-mail</label> <input type="email" name="MERGE0" class="form-control form-control-lg" id="stay-informed__email2" placeholder="e-mail"> <button type="submit" class="btn"><span class="icon icon-icons_105"></span></button> </div> </form> <div class="stay-informed__social-media"> <a href="mailto:info@climateactiontracker.org" class="stay-informed__btn btn btn-gray-700"><span class="icon icon-icons_42"></span></a> <a href="https://twitter.com/climateactiontr" class="stay-informed__btn btn btn-gray-700"><span class="icon icon-icons_31"></span></a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/climateactiontr/" class="stay-informed__btn btn btn-gray-700"><span class="icon icon-icons_32"></span></a> </div> </div> </section> </main> <footer class="footer v-padding--3"> <div class="container"> <div class="row align-items-center"> <div class="col-xl-8"> <nav class="footer__menu nav justify-content-center justify-content-xl-start"> <a href="/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">Home</a> <a href="/about/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">The Climate Action Tracker</a> <a href="/global/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">Global</a> <a href="/sectors/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">Sectors</a> <a href="/countries/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">Countries</a> <a href="/methodology/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">Methodology</a> <a href="/publications/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link active">Publications</a> <a href="/blog/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">Blog</a> <a href="/press/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">News releases</a> <a href="/cat-data-explorer/" class="footer__menu-link nav-link ">Data Explorer</a> </nav> </div> <div class="col-xl-4"> <div class="footer__logos d-flex justify-content-center justify-content-xl-end"> <a href="https://newclimate.org/" class="footer__logos-logo"> <img alt="" class="img-fluid" src="/media/images/Logo-Footer-NewClimate.height-65.png"> </a> <a href="http://climateanalytics.org/" class="footer__logos-logo"> <img alt="" class="img-fluid" src="/media/images/Logo-Footer-ClimateAnalytics.height-65.png"> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="footer__credits text-center"> Copyright Climate Action Tracker | <a href="/about/privacypolicy_legal/">Privacy policy/Legal</a> </div> </div> </footer> <cookie-banner class="cookie-banner" data-cookie-banner onload="window.Cookiebanner.init();"> <div class="container"> <div class="cookie-banner__content"> <div class="cookie-banner__text"> <p>This website saves small pieces of information (cookies) on your device to provide you with an improved user experience, and to allow us to analyse our website’s traffic. 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As the climate crisis worsens, the warming outlook stagnates | Climate Action Tracker