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citation_publication_date=1978"> <meta name="citation_reference" content="citation_title=“Perestroika and the Soviet Worker,”; citation_author=Teague, Elizabeth; citation_publication_date=1990; citation_journal_title=Government and Opposition; citation_volume=25; citation_firstpage=192; citation_doi=10.1111/j.1477-7053.1990.tb00755.x"> <meta name="citation_abstract" content="Like many major revolutions in history, the East European Revolution of 1989 caught its leaders, participants, victims, and observers by surprise. This paper offers an explanation whose crucial feature is a distinction between private and public preferences. By suppressing their antipathies to the political status quo, the East Europeans misled everyone, including themselves, as to the possibility of a successful uprising. In effect, they conferred on their privately despised governments an aura of invincibility. Under the circumstances, public opposition was poised to grow explosively if ever enough people lost their fear of exposing their private preferences. The currently popular theories of revolution do not make clear why uprisings easily explained in retrospect may not have been anticipated. The theory developed here fills this void. Among its predictions is that political revolutions will inevitably continue to catch the world by surprise."> <meta name="citation_doi" content="10.2307/2010422"> <link rel="alternate" href="/core/journals/world-politics/article/abs/now-out-of-never-the-element-of-surprise-in-the-east-european-revolution-of-1989/B947420222BF565D0B2D93099E704BF2" hreflang="en" /> <link rel="icon" href="/core/cambridge-core/public/images/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon"/> <link rel="shortcut icon" href="/core/cambridge-core/public/images/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon"/> <link href='//fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Noto+Sans:400,700,400italic,700italic' rel='stylesheet' type='text/css'>  <link rel="stylesheet" href="/core/cambridge-core/public/css/app.css?version=v7.337.1-hotfix"/> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="https://usage.prod.aop.cambridge.org/v1/events"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="/core/cambridge-core/public/bower_components/font-awesome/css/font-awesome.min.css"/> <script 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data-v-3692cf84><span data-v-63dfaf6e>Volume 44 Issue 1</span> </a></li><li class="page-breadcrumbs__item" data-v-3692cf84><span aria-hidden="true" class="breadcrumbs-wrapper__arrow" data-v-3692cf84>></span><span data-v-3692cf84>Now out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East...</span></li></ul></div></div> <div class="language" data-v-3692cf84><ul class="language-switch" data-v-6b1118dd data-v-3692cf84><li aria-label="English" data-v-6b1118dd><span class="language-option current divider" data-v-6b1118dd>English</span></li><li aria-label="Français" data-v-6b1118dd><span role="button" tabindex="0" href="#" lang="fr" class="language-option" data-v-6b1118dd> Français </span></li></ul></div></div></div></div> <div class="container container__modified" data-v-01274b1d>  <div class="row" data-v-01274b1d><div role="complementary" aria-label="table of content" class="column__left" data-v-01274b1d><div class="col journal-container row" data-v-146270e8 data-v-01274b1d><img 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class="col" data-v-862424e6 data-v-01274b1d> <hgroup data-v-862424e6><h1 data-v-862424e6>Now out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989</h1> </hgroup>     <div class="row published-date" data-v-862424e6><p data-v-862424e6> Published online by Cambridge University Press: <strong data-v-862424e6>13 June 2011</strong></p></div>   <div class="contributors-details" data-v-99f6eb26 data-v-862424e6><div class="row contributors" data-v-99f6eb26><div class="col" data-v-99f6eb26><div class="row contributor-type" data-v-792406ce data-v-99f6eb26> <div class="contributor-type__contributor" data-v-792406ce><a href="/core/search?filters%5BauthorTerms%5D=Timur%20Kuran&eventCode=SE-AU" class="app-link app-link__text app-link--accent" data-v-63dfaf6e data-v-792406ce><span data-v-63dfaf6e>Timur Kuran</span> </a>  <span data-v-792406ce></span></div> </div> </div> <div class="col-2 collapse-link" data-v-99f6eb26><a href="#authors-details" data-toggle="collapse" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls="authors-details" class="app-link collapsed app-link__text-icon app-link--secondary reverse" data-v-63dfaf6e data-v-99f6eb26><img src="data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMTEiIGhlaWdodD0iNiIgdmlld0JveD0iMCAwIDExIDYiIGZpbGw9Im5vbmUiIHhtbG5zPSJodHRwOi8vd3d3LnczLm9yZy8yMDAwL3N2ZyI+CjxwYXRoIGZpbGwtcnVsZT0iZXZlbm9kZCIgY2xpcC1ydWxlPSJldmVub2RkIiBkPSJNNS41MDAwNiA2QzUuMzI4NDYgNiA1LjE2Mzk4IDUuOTMzMzkgNS4wNDI1MiA1LjgxNTAxTDAuMTg5NDQ4IDEuMDc3OEMtMC4wNjMxNzYzIDAuODMxMjU3IC0wLjA2MzE3NjMgMC40MzE0NTIgMC4xODk2MSAwLjE4NDkwOEMwLjQ0MjM5NiAtMC4wNjE2MzYgMC44NTIwNjIgLTAuMDYxNjM2IDEuMTA0NTIgMC4xODQ5MDhMNS41MDAwNiA0LjQ3NTc1TDkuODk1NiAwLjE4NDkwOEMxMC4xNDgyIC0wLjA2MTYzNiAxMC41NTc5IC0wLjA2MTYzNiAxMC44MTA1IDAuMTg0OTA4QzExLjA2MzEgMC40MzE0NTIgMTEuMDYzMSAwLjgzMTEgMTAuODEwNyAxLjA3NzhMNS45NTc2IDUuODE1MDFDNS44MzYxNCA1LjkzMzM5IDUuNjcxNjYgNiA1LjUwMDA2IDZaIiBmaWxsPSIjNzA3MDcwIi8+Cjwvc3ZnPgo=" alt="" class="app-icon icon arrow-down" data-v-d2c09870 data-v-63dfaf6e><span class="text" data-v-63dfaf6e>Show author details </span> </a></div></div> <hr aria-hidden="true" class="separator default" data-v-7036083a data-v-99f6eb26> <dl id="authors-details" class="authors-details collapse" data-v-2edb8da6 data-v-99f6eb26><div data-test-author="Timur Kuran" class="row author" data-v-2edb8da6><dt class="col-12 col-sm-2 title" data-v-2edb8da6>Timur Kuran</dt> <dd class="col content d-inline d-sm-flex" data-v-2edb8da6><span class="content__title" data-v-2edb8da6>Affiliation:</span> <div class="d-sm-flex flex-column flex-sm-1 d-inline" data-v-2edb8da6><span data-v-2edb8da6><span data-v-2edb8da6>University of Southern California</span> </span></div></dd></div>  <hr aria-hidden="true" class="separator default" data-v-7036083a data-v-2edb8da6></dl></div></div> <div id="app-tabs" class="tabs" data-v-1d90c6ce data-v-01274b1d><div id="app-tabs-wrapper" class="tabs__wrapper" data-v-1d90c6ce><div role="navigation" aria-label="tab navigation" class="container" 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href="#cite-modal" class="app-button cite-button d-print-none app-button__text-icon app-button--secondary export-citation-product" data-v-2a038744 data-v-2ce5f61d data-v-43a4d572><img src="/core/page-component/img/cite-icon.44eaaa4.svg" alt="" class="app-icon icon cite" data-v-d2c09870 data-v-2a038744> <span class="text" data-v-2a038744>Cite</span></button>  </div> <hr aria-hidden="true" class="separator default" data-v-7036083a></div> <div class="share-modal-overlay" style="display:none;" data-v-43a4d572></div> <div data-spy="scroll" data-target="#toc" class="scrollspy-content" data-v-43a4d572> <div id="sec0" class="col article-abstract sec" data-v-2fa8b348 data-v-43a4d572><div class="abstract-text-container" data-v-2fa8b348><div lang="en"><h2>Abstract</h2>  <div class="abstract-content"><div class="abstract" data-abstract-type="normal"><p>Like many major revolutions in history, the East European Revolution of 1989 caught its leaders, participants, victims, and observers by surprise. This paper offers an explanation whose crucial feature is a distinction between private and public preferences. By suppressing their antipathies to the political status quo, the East Europeans misled everyone, including themselves, as to the possibility of a successful uprising. In effect, they conferred on their privately despised governments an aura of invincibility. Under the circumstances, public opposition was poised to grow explosively if ever enough people lost their fear of exposing their private preferences. The currently popular theories of revolution do not make clear why uprisings easily explained in retrospect may not have been anticipated. The theory developed here fills this void. Among its predictions is that political revolutions will inevitably continue to catch the world by surprise.</p></div></div> <hr aria-hidden="true" class="abstract-divider separator default" data-v-7036083a></div></div>   </div>    <dl class="article-details" data-v-6e32a161 data-v-43a4d572><div class="row" data-v-6e32a161><dt class="col-12 col-sm-3 col-md-2_5 title" data-v-6e32a161> Type </dt> <dd class="col content" data-v-6e32a161>Liberalization and Democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe</dd></div> <div class="row" data-v-6e32a161><dt class="col-12 col-sm-3 col-md-2_5 title" data-v-6e32a161> Information </dt> <dd class="col content" data-v-6e32a161><div class="content__journal" data-v-6e32a161><a href="/core/journals/world-politics" class="app-link app-link__text app-link--underlined" data-v-63dfaf6e data-v-6e32a161><span class="text" data-v-63dfaf6e>World Politics </span> </a> <span data-v-6e32a161> , <a href="/core/journals/world-politics/volume/6C9C99504B118DDA5D5B9563D209AAB4" class="app-link app-link__text app-link--underlined" data-v-63dfaf6e data-v-6e32a161><span class="text" data-v-63dfaf6e>Volume 44 </span> </a></span> <span data-v-6e32a161> , <a href="/core/journals/world-politics/issue/C58994D74DC2F3422C0859968C284EA9" class="app-link app-link__text app-link--underlined" data-v-63dfaf6e data-v-6e32a161><span class="text" data-v-63dfaf6e>Issue 1 </span> </a></span> <span data-v-6e32a161>, October 1991</span>  <span data-v-6e32a161>, pp. 7 - 48</span> </div> <div class="doi-data" data-v-6e32a161><div data-v-6e32a161>DOI: <a target="_blank" href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2010422" class="app-link app-link__text app-link--accent" data-v-63dfaf6e data-v-6e32a161><span class="text" data-v-63dfaf6e>https://doi.org/10.2307/2010422 </span> <span class="sr-only" data-v-63dfaf6e>[Opens in a new window]</span></a></div> </div>  </dd></div>   <div class="row" data-v-6e32a161><dt class="col-12 col-sm-3 col-md-2_5 title" data-v-6e32a161> Copyright </dt> <dd class="col content" data-v-6e32a161><div data-v-6e32a161> Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 1991 </div></dd></div></dl> <div id="access-block" class="d-print-none" data-v-43a4d572><div class="access-options"><h2 class="access-options__heading">Access options</h2> <span>Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)</span> <div class="access-options__content access-options__new"> </div></div></div> <div id="content-container" class="content-container" data-v-43a4d572>   <hr aria-hidden="true" class="list-divider separator default" data-v-7036083a> <div id="references-list" class="circle-list"><h2>References</h2> <div id="fn02" aria-flowto="reference-1-content reference-1-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 1 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-1-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">1</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref001" id="ref001"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Gwertzman</span>, <span class="given-names">Bernard</span></span> and <span class="name"><span class="surname">Kaufman</span>, <span class="given-names">Michael T.</span></span>, eds., <span class="source">The Collapse of Communism, by Correspondents of “The New York Times”</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">New York:</span><span class="publisher-name">Times Books</span>, <span class="year">1990</span>), <span class="fpage">vii</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Collapse of Communism, by Correspondents of “The New York Times”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=The+Collapse+of+Communism%2C+by+Correspondents+of+%E2%80%9CThe+New+York+Times%E2%80%9D&author=Gwertzman+Bernard&author=Kaufman+Michael+T.&publication+year=1990>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn03" aria-flowto="reference-2-content reference-2-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 2 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-2-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">2</sup></span> For an early statement of this thesis, see <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref002" id="ref002"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Arendt</span>, <span class="given-names">Hannah</span></span>, <span class="source">The Origins of Totalitarianism</span>, <span class="edition">2d</span> ed. (<span class="year">1951</span>; reprint, <span class="publisher-loc">New York:</span><span class="publisher-name">World Publishing</span>, <span class="year">1958</span>), pt. <span class="fpage">3</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Origins of Totalitarianism' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=The+Origins+of+Totalitarianism&author=Arendt+Hannah&publication+year=1951>Google Scholar</a></span>. Arendt suggested that communism weakens interpersonal bonds rooted in family, community, religion, and profession, a situation that makes individuals terribly dependent on the goodwill of the state and thus blocks the mobilization of an anticommunist revolt.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn04" aria-flowto="reference-3-content reference-3-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 3 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-3-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">3</sup></span> <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref003" id="ref003"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Pipes</span>, <span class="given-names">Richard</span></span>, <span class="article-title">“Gorbachev's Russia: Breakdown or Crackdown?”</span> <span class="source">Commentary</span>, March <span class="year">1990</span>, p. <span class="fpage">16</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Gorbachev's Russia: Breakdown or Crackdown?”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CGorbachev's+Russia%3A+Breakdown+or+Crackdown%3F%E2%80%9D&author=Pipes+Richard&publication+year=1990&journal=Commentary>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn05" aria-flowto="reference-4-content reference-4-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 4 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-4-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">4</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref004" id="ref004"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Kirkpatrick</span>, <span class="given-names">Jeane J.</span></span>, <span class="source">The Withering Away of the Totalitarian State ... And Other</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">Washington, D.C.:</span><span class="publisher-name">AEI Press</span>, <span class="year">1990</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Withering Away of the Totalitarian State ... And Other' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=The+Withering+Away+of+the+Totalitarian+State+...+And+Other&author=Kirkpatrick+Jeane+J.&publication+year=1990>Google Scholar</a></span>). A decade earlier Kirkpatrick had articulated a variant of Arendt's thesis, insisting that the communist system is incapable of self-propelled evolution. See <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref005" id="ref005"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Kirkpatrick</span>, </span>, <span class="article-title">“Dictatorships and Double Standards,”</span> <span class="source">Commentary</span>, November <span class="year">1979</span>, pp. <span class="fpage">34</span>–<span class="lpage">45</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Dictatorships and Double Standards,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CDictatorships+and+Double+Standards%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Kirkpatrick+&publication+year=1979&journal=Commentary&pages=34-45>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn06" aria-flowto="reference-5-content reference-5-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 5 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-5-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">5</sup></span> <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref006" id="ref006"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Graubard</span>, </span>, <span class="article-title">“Preface to the Issue ‘Eastern Europe . . . Central Europe . . . Europe,’ “</span> <span class="source">Daedalus</span> <span class="volume">119</span> (Winter <span class="year">1990</span>), <span class="fpage">vi</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Preface to the Issue ‘Eastern Europe . . . Central Europe . . . Europe,’ “' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPreface+to+the+Issue+%E2%80%98Eastern+Europe+.+.+.+Central+Europe+.+.+.+Europe%2C%E2%80%99+%E2%80%9C&author=Graubard+&publication+year=1990&journal=Daedalus&volume=119>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn07" aria-flowto="reference-6-content reference-6-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 6 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-6-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">6</sup></span> <a class="xref bibr" href="#ref006">Ibid</a>., ii.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn08" aria-flowto="reference-7-content reference-7-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 7 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-7-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">7</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref007" id="ref007"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Naisbitt</span>, </span>, <span class="source">Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">New York:</span><span class="publisher-name">Warner Books</span>, <span class="year">1982</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Megatrends%3A+Ten+New+Directions+Transforming+Our+Lives&author=Naisbitt+&publication+year=1982>Google Scholar</a></span>). The months following the East European Revolution saw the appearance of <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref008" id="ref008"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Naisbitt</span>, <span class="given-names">John</span></span> and <span class="name"><span class="surname">Aburdene</span>, <span class="given-names">Patricia</span></span>, <span class="source">Megatrends 2000: Ten New Directions for the 1990s</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">New York:</span><span class="publisher-name">William Morrow</span>, <span class="year">1990</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Megatrends 2000: Ten New Directions for the 1990s' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Megatrends+2000%3A+Ten+New+Directions+for+the+1990s&author=Naisbitt+John&author=Aburdene+Patricia&publication+year=1990>Google Scholar</a></span>). This sequel characterizes the East European developments of the late 1980s as an unforeseen “political earthquake” and then <em class="italic">predicts</em> that the 1990s will witness the further erosion of communism (chap. 3).</p></div></div></div><div id="fn09" aria-flowto="reference-8-content reference-8-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 8 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-8-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">8</sup></span> <em class="italic">Economist,</em> November 18, 1989, p. 13.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn10" aria-flowto="reference-9-content reference-9-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 9 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-9-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">9</sup></span> <span class="citation simple other" data-magellan-destination="ref009" id="ref009"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Havel</span>, </span>, “The Power of the Powerless” (<span class="year">1979</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for ' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Havel,+,+“The+Power+of+the+Powerless”+(1979>Google Scholar</a></span>), in <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref010" id="ref010"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Havel</span>, </span> et al., <span class="source">The Power of the Powerless: Citizens against the State in Central-Eastern Europe</span>, ed. <span class="name"><span class="surname">Keane</span>, <span class="given-names">John</span></span> and trans. <span class="name"><span class="surname">Wilson</span>, <span class="given-names">Paul</span></span> (<span class="publisher-loc">Armonk, N.Y.:</span><span class="publisher-name">M. E. Sharpe</span>, <span class="year">1985</span>), <span class="fpage">42</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Power of the Powerless: Citizens against the State in Central-Eastern Europe' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=The+Power+of+the+Powerless%3A+Citizens+against+the+State+in+Central-Eastern+Europe&author=Havel+&author=Keane+John&author=Wilson+Paul&publication+year=1985>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn11" aria-flowto="reference-10-content reference-10-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 10 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-10-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">10</sup></span> <a class="xref bibr" href="#ref010">Ibid</a>., 87, 89, 96.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn12" aria-flowto="reference-11-content reference-11-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 11 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-11-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">11</sup></span> Havel, “Meeting Gorbachev” (1987), in <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref011" id="ref011"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Brinton</span>, <span class="given-names">William M.</span></span> and <span class="name"><span class="surname">Rinzler</span>, <span class="given-names">Alan</span></span>, eds.,<span class="source">Without Force or Lies: Voicesfrom the Revolution of Central Europe in 1989–90</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">San Francisco:</span><span class="publisher-name">Mercury House</span>, <span class="year">1990</span>), <span class="fpage">266</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Without Force or Lies: Voicesfrom the Revolution of Central Europe in 1989–90' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Without+Force+or+Lies%3A+Voicesfrom+the+Revolution+of+Central+Europe+in+1989%E2%80%9390&author=Brinton+William+M.&author=Rinzler+Alan&publication+year=1990>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn13" aria-flowto="reference-12-content reference-12-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 12 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-12-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">12</sup></span> Havel, “Cards on the Table” (1988), in Brinton and Rinzler (fn. 11), 270–71.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn14" aria-flowto="reference-13-content reference-13-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 13 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-13-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">13</sup></span> <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref012" id="ref012"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Tarrow</span>, <span class="given-names">Sidney</span></span>, <span class="article-title">“‘Aiming at a Moving Target’: Social Science and the Recent Rebellions in Eastern Europe,”</span> <span class="source">PS: Political Science and Politics</span> <span class="volume">24</span> (March <span class="year">1991</span>), <span class="fpage">12</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “‘Aiming at a Moving Target’: Social Science and the Recent Rebellions in Eastern Europe,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9C%E2%80%98Aiming+at+a+Moving+Target%E2%80%99%3A+Social+Science+and+the+Recent+Rebellions+in+Eastern+Europe%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Tarrow+Sidney&publication+year=1991&journal=PS%3A+Political+Science+and+Politics&volume=24>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn15" aria-flowto="reference-14-content reference-14-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 14 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-14-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">14</sup></span> On the elections and the reactions they generated, see the reports of John Taglibue, <em class="italic">New York Times,</em> June 3–6, 1989. The events leading up to the April accord have been chronicled and interpreted by Timothy Garton Ash, “Refolution: The Springtime of Two Nations,” I <em class="italic">New York Review of Books,</em> June 15, 1989, pp. 3–10. He observed: “Almost no one imagined that the great gulf between ‘the power’ and ‘the society,’ between Jaruzelski and Walesa,; could be so swiftly bridged” (p. 6). For another informative account of Poland's political: transformation, see <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref013" id="ref013"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Abel</span>, <span class="given-names">Elie</span></span>, <span class="source">The Shattered Bloc: Behind the Upheaval in Eastern Europe</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">Boston:</span><span class="publisher-name">Houghton Mifflin</span>, <span class="year">1990</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Shattered Bloc: Behind the Upheaval in Eastern Europe' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=The+Shattered+Bloc%3A+Behind+the+Upheaval+in+Eastern+Europe&author=Abel+Elie&publication+year=1990>Google Scholar</a></span>), chap. 4. I</p></div></div></div><div id="fn16" aria-flowto="reference-15-content reference-15-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 15 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-15-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">15</sup></span> <em class="italic">New York Times,</em> November 12, 1989, p. 1. f</p></div></div></div><div id="fn17" aria-flowto="reference-16-content reference-16-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 16 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-16-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">16</sup></span> Question 36 on the East German Survey of the Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach, February 17-March 15, 1990, Archive no. 4195 GEW. I am indebted to Elisabeth Noelle-i Neumann, director of the institute, for agreeing to insert this question into a broader surveyj on East German political opinions.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn18" aria-flowto="reference-17-content reference-17-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 17 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-17-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">17</sup></span> <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref014" id="ref014"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Fischhoff</span>, <span class="given-names">Baruch</span></span>, <span class="article-title">“Hindsight ≠ Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment under Uncertainty,”</span> <span class="source">Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance</span> <span class="volume">1</span> (August <span class="year">1975</span>), <span class="fpage">288</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Hindsight ≠ Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment under Uncertainty,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CHindsight+%E2%89%A0+Foresight%3A+The+Effect+of+Outcome+Knowledge+on+Judgment+under+Uncertainty%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Fischhoff+Baruch&publication+year=1975&journal=Journal+of+Experimental+Psychology%3A+Human+Perception+and+Performance&volume=1>Google Scholar</a></span>–99; and <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref015" id="ref015"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Fischhoff</span>, <span class="given-names">Baruch</span></span> and <span class="name"><span class="surname">Beyth</span>, <span class="given-names">Ruth</span></span>, <span class="article-title">“‘I Knew It Would Happen’—Remembered Probabilities of Once-Future Things,”</span> <span class="source">Organizational Behavior and Human Performance</span> <span class="volume">13</span> (February <span class="year">1975</span>), <span class="fpage">1</span>–<span class="lpage">16</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “‘I Knew It Would Happen’—Remembered Probabilities of Once-Future Things,”' href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(75)90002-1>CrossRef</a><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “‘I Knew It Would Happen’—Remembered Probabilities of Once-Future Things,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9C%E2%80%98I+Knew+It+Would+Happen%E2%80%99%E2%80%94Remembered+Probabilities+of+Once-Future+Things%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Fischhoff+Baruch&author=Beyth+Ruth&publication+year=1975&journal=Organizational+Behavior+and+Human+Performance&volume=13&doi=10.1016%2F0030-5073(75)90002-1&pages=1-16>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn19" aria-flowto="reference-18-content reference-18-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 18 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-18-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">18</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref016" id="ref016">“David Hackett Fischer, <span class="source">Historians’ Fallacies: Toward a Logic of Historical Thought</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">London:</span><span class="publisher-name">Roudedge and Kegan Paul</span>, <span class="year">1971</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Historians’ Fallacies: Toward a Logic of Historical Thought' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=“David+Hackett+Fischer,+Historians’+Fallacies:+Toward+a+Logic+of+Historical+Thought+(London:Roudedge+and+Kegan+Paul,+1971>Google Scholar</a></span>), chaps. 6–8.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn20" aria-flowto="reference-19-content reference-19-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 19 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-19-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">19</sup></span> For a compilation of pertinent reports from the <em class="italic">New York Times,</em> see Gwertzman and Kaufman (fn. 1), 153–84. Superb eyewitness accounts include Timothy Garton Ash, “The German Revolution,” <em class="italic">New York Review of Books,</em> December 21, 1989, pp. 14–19; and George Paul Csicsery, “The Siege of Nogradi Street, Budapest, 1989,” in Brinton and Rinzler (fn. 11), 289–302.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn21" aria-flowto="reference-20-content reference-20-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 20 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-20-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">20</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref017" id="ref017"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Amalrik</span>, </span>, <span class="source">Will the Soviet Union Survive until 1984?</span> (<span class="year">1969</span>) (<span class="publisher-loc">New York:</span><span class="publisher-name">Harper and Row</span>, <span class="volume">I</span> <span class="year">1970</span>), esp. <span class="fpage">36</span>–<span class="lpage">44</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Will the Soviet Union Survive until 1984?' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Will+the+Soviet+Union+Survive+until+1984%3F&author=Amalrik+&publication+year=1969&pages=36-44>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn22" aria-flowto="reference-21-content reference-21-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 21 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-21-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">21</sup></span> <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref018" id="ref018"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Tismaneanu</span>, </span>, <span class="article-title">“Personal Power and Political Crisis in Romania,”</span> <span class="source">Government and Opposition</span> <span class="volume">24</span> (Spring <span class="year">1989</span>), <span class="fpage">193</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Personal Power and Political Crisis in Romania,”' href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.1989.tb00115.x>CrossRef</a><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Personal Power and Political Crisis in Romania,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPersonal+Power+and+Political+Crisis+in+Romania%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Tismaneanu+&publication+year=1989&journal=Government+and+Opposition&volume=24&doi=10.1111%2Fj.1477-7053.1989.tb00115.x>Google Scholar</a></span>–94.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn23" aria-flowto="reference-22-content reference-22-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 22 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-22-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">22</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref019" id="ref019"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Brecht</span>, <span class="given-names">Bertolt</span></span>, “Lob der Dialectic” (In praise of dialectics, 1933), in <span class="source">Gedichte</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">Frankfurt:</span><span class="publisher-name">Suhrkamp Verlag</span>, <span class="year">1961</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Gedichte' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Gedichte&author=Brecht+Bertolt&publication+year=1961>Google Scholar</a></span>), 3:73; poem translated by Edith Anderson.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn24" aria-flowto="reference-23-content reference-23-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 23 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-23-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">23</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref020" id="ref020"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Skocpol</span>, </span>, <span class="source">States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">Cambridge:</span><span class="publisher-name">Cambridge University Press</span>, <span class="year">1979</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China' href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511815805>CrossRef</a><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=States+and+Social+Revolutions%3A+A+Comparative+Analysis+of+France%2C+Russia%2C+and+China&author=Skocpol+&publication+year=1979>Google Scholar</a></span>).</p></div></div></div><div id="fn25" aria-flowto="reference-24-content reference-24-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 24 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-24-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">24</sup></span> The seminal contribution is <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref021" id="ref021"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Olson</span>, <span class="given-names">Mancur</span></span>, <span class="source">The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups</span> (1965; 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Taylor also offers an illuminating critique of structuralism.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn27" aria-flowto="reference-26-content reference-26-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 26 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-26-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">26</sup></span> Edith Anderson, “Town Mice and Country Mice: The East German Revolution,” in Brinton and Rinzler (fn. 11), 170–92.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn28" aria-flowto="reference-27-content reference-27-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 27 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-27-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">27</sup></span> On the availability heuristic, see <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref023" id="ref023"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Tversky</span>, <span class="given-names">Amos</span></span> and <span class="name"><span class="surname">Kahneman</span>, <span class="given-names">Daniel</span></span>, <span class="article-title">“Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,”</span> <span class="source">Cognitive Psychology</span> <span class="volume">5</span> (September <span class="year">1973</span>), <span class="fpage">207</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,”' href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9>CrossRef</a><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CAvailability%3A+A+Heuristic+for+Judging+Frequency+and+Probability%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Tversky+Amos&author=Kahneman+Daniel&publication+year=1973&journal=Cognitive+Psychology&volume=5&doi=10.1016%2F0010-0285(73)90033-9>Google Scholar</a></span>–32. The biases that this heuristic imparts to the use of historical knowledge are discussed by <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref024" id="ref024"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Taylor</span>, <span class="given-names">Shelley E.</span></span>, “The Availability Bias in Social Perception and Interaction,” in <span class="name"><span class="surname">Kahneman</span>, <span class="given-names">Daniel</span></span>, <span class="name"><span class="surname">Slovic</span>, <span class="given-names">Paul</span></span>, and <span class="name"><span class="surname">Tversky</span>, <span class="given-names">Amos</span></span>, eds., <span class="source">Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">Cambridge:</span><span class="publisher-name">Cambridge University Press</span>, <span class="year">1982</span>), <span class="fpage">190</span>–<span class="lpage">200</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases' href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511809477.014>CrossRef</a><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Judgment+under+Uncertainty%3A+Heuristics+and+Biases&author=Taylor+Shelley+E.&author=Kahneman+Daniel&author=Slovic+Paul&author=Tversky+Amos&publication+year=1982&pages=190-200>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn29" aria-flowto="reference-28-content reference-28-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 28 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-28-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">28</sup></span> For two of the major contribution to this approach, see <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref025" id="ref025"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Davies</span>, <span class="given-names">James C.</span></span>, <span class="article-title">“Toward a Theory of Revolution,”</span> <span class="source">American Sociological Review</span> <span class="volume">27</span> (February <span class="year">1962</span>), <span class="fpage">5</span>–<span class="lpage">19</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Toward a Theory of Revolution,”' href=https://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2089714>CrossRef</a><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Toward a Theory of Revolution,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CToward+a+Theory+of+Revolution%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Davies+James+C.&publication+year=1962&journal=American+Sociological+Review&volume=27&doi=10.2307%2F2089714&pages=5-19>Google Scholar</a></span>; and <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref026" id="ref026"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Gurr</span>, <span class="given-names">Ted R.</span></span>, <span class="source">Why Men Rebel</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">Princeton:</span><span class="publisher-name">Princeton University Press</span>, <span class="year">1970</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Why Men Rebel' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Why+Men+Rebel&author=Gurr+Ted+R.&publication+year=1970>Google Scholar</a></span>).</p></div></div></div><div id="fn30" aria-flowto="reference-29-content reference-29-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 29 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-29-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">29</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref027" id="ref027"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Snyder</span>, <span class="given-names">David</span></span> and <span class="name"><span class="surname">Tilly</span>, <span class="given-names">Charles</span></span>, “Hardship and Collective Violence in France, 1830 to 1960,” <span class="source">American Sociological Review</span> <span class="volume">37</span> (October: 1830–1930 (<span class="publisher-loc">Cambridge:</span><span class="publisher-name">Harvard University Press</span>, <span class="year">1975</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for American Sociological Review' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=American+Sociological+Review&author=Snyder+David&author=Tilly+Charles&publication+year=1975>Google Scholar</a></span>). For much additional evidence against the theory of relative deprivation, see <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref028" id="ref028"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Finkel</span>, <span class="given-names">Steven E.</span></span> and <span class="name"><span class="surname">Rule</span>, <span class="given-names">James B.</span></span>, “Relative Deprivation and Relate Psyechological The ories of Civil Violence: A Critical Review,” in <span class="name"><span class="surname">Kriesberg</span>, <span class="given-names">Louis</span></span>, ed., <span class="source">Research in Social Movements, Conflicts and Chamge</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">Greenwich, Conn.:</span><span class="publisher-name">JAI Press</span>, <span class="year">1986</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Research in Social Movements, Conflicts and Chamge' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Research+in+Social+Movements%2C+Conflicts+and+Chamge&author=Finkel+Steven+E.&author=Rule+James+B.&author=Kriesberg+Louis&publication+year=1986>Google Scholar</a></span>), 9:47–69.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn31" aria-flowto="reference-30-content reference-30-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 30 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-30-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">30</sup></span> For a detailed analysis of this trade-off, see <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref029" id="ref029"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Kuran</span>, <span class="given-names">Timur</span></span>, <span class="article-title">“Private and Public Preferences,”</span> <span class="source">Economics and Philosophy</span> <span class="volume">6</span> (April <span class="year">1990</span>), <span class="fpage">1</span>–<span class="lpage">26</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Private and Public Preferences,”' href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S026626710000064X>CrossRef</a><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Private and Public Preferences,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPrivate+and+Public+Preferences%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Kuran+Timur&publication+year=1990&journal=Economics+and+Philosophy&volume=6&doi=10.1017%2FS026626710000064X&pages=1-26>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn32" aria-flowto="reference-31-content reference-31-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 31 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-31-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">31</sup></span> The theory outlined in this section is developed more fully in <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref030" id="ref030"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Kuran</span>, <span class="given-names">Timur</span></span>, <span class="article-title">“Spark and Prairie Fires: A Theory of Unanticipated Political Revolution,”</span> <span class="source">Public Choice</span> <span class="volume">61</span> (Aprf <span class="year">1989</span>), <span class="fpage">41</span>–<span class="lpage">74</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Spark and Prairie Fires: A Theory of Unanticipated Political Revolution,”' href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00116762>CrossRef</a><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Spark and Prairie Fires: A Theory of Unanticipated Political Revolution,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CSpark+and+Prairie+Fires%3A+A+Theory+of+Unanticipated+Political+Revolution%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Kuran+Timur&publication+year=1989&journal=Public+Choice&volume=61&doi=10.1007%2FBF00116762&pages=41-74>Google Scholar</a></span>. A summary of the present formulation was delivered at the annual conventioj of the American Economic Association, Washington, D.C., December 28–30, 1990. This pre, sentation appeared under the title “The East European Revolution of 1989: Is It SurprisiiT That We Were Surprised?” in the <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref031" id="ref031"><span class="source">American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings</span> <span class="volume">81</span> <span class="year">1991</span>), <span class="fpage">121</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for ' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=American+Economic+Review,+Papers+and+Proceedings+81+1991),+121>Google Scholar</a></span>–25.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn33" aria-flowto="reference-32-content reference-32-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 32 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-32-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">32</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref032" id="ref032"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Schumpeter</span>, </span>, <span class="source">Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy</span>, <span class="edition">3d</span> ed. (<span class="year">1950</span>; reprint, <span class="publisher-loc">New York:</span><span class="publisher-name">Harper Torchbooks</span>, <span class="year">1962</span>), chap. <span class="fpage">13</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Capitalism%2C+Socialism+and+Democracy&author=Schumpeter+&publication+year=1950>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn34" aria-flowto="reference-33-content reference-33-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 33 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-33-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">33</sup></span> Lucid analyses of bandwagon processes include Mark Granovetter, <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref033" id="ref033"><span class="article-title">“Threshold Models of Collective Behavior,”</span> <span class="source">American Journal of Sociology</span> <span class="volume">83</span> (May <span class="year">1978</span>), <span class="fpage">1420</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Threshold Models of Collective Behavior,”' href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1086/226707>CrossRef</a><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Threshold Models of Collective Behavior,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=“Threshold+Models+of+Collective+Behavior,”+American+Journal+of+Sociology+83+(May+1978),+1420>Google Scholar</a></span>–43; and <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref034" id="ref034"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Schelling</span>, <span class="given-names">Thomas C.</span></span>, <span class="source">Micromotives and Macrobehavior</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">New York:</span><span class="publisher-name">W. W. Norton</span>, <span class="year">1978</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Micromotives and Macrobehavior' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Micromotives+and+Macrobehavior&author=Schelling+Thomas+C.&publication+year=1978>Google Scholar</a></span>).</p></div></div></div><div id="fn35" aria-flowto="reference-34-content reference-34-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 34 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-34-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">34</sup></span> Under the term <em class="italic">impression of universality,</em> the concept was introduced by <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref035" id="ref035"><span class="name"><span class="surname">All-port</span>, <span class="given-names">Floyd H.</span></span>, <span class="source">Social Psychology</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">Boston:</span><span class="publisher-name">Houghton, Mifflin</span>, <span class="year">1924</span>), <span class="fpage">305</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Social Psychology' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Social+Psychology&author=All-port+Floyd+H.&publication+year=1924>Google Scholar</a></span>–9. The term <em class="italic">pluralistic ignorance</em> was first used by <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref036" id="ref036"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Schanck</span>, <span class="given-names">Richard L.</span></span>, <span class="article-title">“A Study of a Community and Its Groups and Institutions Conceived of as Behavior of Individuals,”</span> <span class="source">Psychological Monographs</span> 43–2 (<span class="year">1932</span>), <span class="fpage">101</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “A Study of a Community and Its Groups and Institutions Conceived of as Behavior of Individuals,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CA+Study+of+a+Community+and+Its+Groups+and+Institutions+Conceived+of+as+Behavior+of+Individuals%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Schanck+Richard+L.&publication+year=1932&journal=Psychological+Monographs>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn36" aria-flowto="reference-35-content reference-35-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 35 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-35-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">35</sup></span> Relatively high thresholds may also be associated with relatively great vulnerability to social pressure.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn37" aria-flowto="reference-36-content reference-36-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 36 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-36-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">36</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref037" id="ref037"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Tocqueville</span>, </span>, <span class="source">The Old Regime and the French Revolution</span> (<span class="year">1856</span>), trans. <span class="name"><span class="surname">Gilbert</span>, <span class="given-names">Stuart</span></span> (<span class="publisher-loc">Garden City, N.Y.:</span><span class="publisher-name">Doubleday</span>, <span class="year">1955</span>), <span class="fpage">177</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Old Regime and the French Revolution' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=The+Old+Regime+and+the+French+Revolution&author=Tocqueville+&author=Gilbert+Stuart&publication+year=1856>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn38" aria-flowto="reference-37-content reference-37-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 37 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-37-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">37</sup></span> Each of these is developed by <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref038" id="ref038"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Finkel</span>, <span class="given-names">Steven E.</span></span>, <span class="name"><span class="surname">Muller</span>, <span class="given-names">Edward N.</span></span>, and <span class="name"><span class="surname">Dieter</span>, <span class="given-names">Karl</span></span> Opp, <span class="article-title">“Personal Influence, Collective Rationality, and Mass Political Action,”</span> <span class="source">American Polit-al teence Review</span> <span class="volume">83</span> (September <span class="year">1989</span>), <span class="fpage">885</span>–<span class="lpage">903</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Personal Influence, Collective Rationality, and Mass Political Action,”' href=https://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1962065>CrossRef</a><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Personal Influence, Collective Rationality, and Mass Political Action,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPersonal+Influence%2C+Collective+Rationality%2C+and+Mass+Political+Action%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Finkel+Steven+E.&author=Muller+Edward+N.&author=Dieter+Karl&publication+year=1989&journal=American+Polit-al+teence+Review&volume=83&doi=10.2307%2F1962065&pages=885-903>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn39" aria-flowto="reference-38-content reference-38-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 38 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-38-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">38</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref039" id="ref039"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Tilly</span>, </span>, <span class="source">From Mobilization to Revolution</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">Reading, Mass.:</span><span class="publisher-name">Addison-Wesley</span>, <span class="year">1978</span>).<a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for From Mobilization to Revolution' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=From+Mobilization+to+Revolution&author=Tilly+&publication+year=1978>Google Scholar</a></span></p></div></div></div><div id="fn40" aria-flowto="reference-39-content reference-39-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 39 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-39-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">39</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref040" id="ref040"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Oliver</span>, </span>, “Bringing the Crowd Back In: The Nonorganizational Elements of Social Movements,” in <span class="name"><span class="surname">Kriesberg</span>, <span class="given-names">Louis</span></span>, ed., <span class="source">Research in Social Movements, Conflict and Change</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">Greenwich, Conn.:</span><span class="publisher-name">JAI Press</span>, <span class="year">1989</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Research in Social Movements, Conflict and Change' 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class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-41-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">41</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref041" id="ref041"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Solzhenitsyn</span>, </span>, “The Smatterers” (<span class="year">1974</span>), in <span class="name"><span class="surname">Solzhenitsyn</span>, </span> et al., <span class="source">From under the Rubble</span>, trans. 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(<span class="publisher-loc">Boston:</span><span class="publisher-name">Little, Brown</span>, <span class="year">1975</span>), <span class="fpage">275</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for From under the Rubble' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=From+under+the+Rubble&author=Solzhenitsyn+&author=Solzhenitsyn+&publication+year=1974>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn43" aria-flowto="reference-42-content reference-42-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 42 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-42-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">42</sup></span> <a class="xref bibr" href="#ref041">Ibid</a>., 276; emphasis in original.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn44" aria-flowto="reference-43-content reference-43-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 43 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-43-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">43</sup></span> Havel (fn. 9), 27–28.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn45" aria-flowto="reference-44-content reference-44-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 44 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-44-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">44</sup></span> Manea, “Romania: Three Lines with Commentary,” in Brinton and Rinzler (fn. 11), 327.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn46" aria-flowto="reference-45-content reference-45-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 45 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-45-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">45</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref042" id="ref042"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Wierzbicki</span>, </span>, “A Treatise on Ticks” (1979), in <span class="name"><span class="surname">Brumberg</span>, <span class="given-names">Abraham</span></span>, ed., <span class="source">Poland:</span> <span class="publisher-name">Genesis of a Revolution</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">New York:</span><span class="publisher-name">Random House</span>, <span class="year">1983</span>), <span class="fpage">205</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Poland:' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Poland%3A&author=Wierzbicki+&author=Brumberg+Abraham&publication+year=1983>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn47" aria-flowto="reference-46-content reference-46-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 46 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-46-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">46</sup></span> The Charter 77 declaration is reproduced in Havel et al. (fn. 9), 217–21.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn48" aria-flowto="reference-47-content reference-47-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 47 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-47-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">47</sup></span> See <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref043" id="ref043"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Garton Ash</span>, <span class="given-names">Timothy</span></span>, <span class="source">The Uses of Adversity: Essays on the Fate of Central</span> (1983–89) (<span class="publisher-loc">New York:</span><span class="publisher-name">Random House</span>, <span class="year">1989</span>), esp. <span class="fpage">61</span>–<span class="lpage">70</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Uses of Adversity: Essays on the Fate of Central' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=The+Uses+of+Adversity%3A+Essays+on+the+Fate+of+Central&author=Garton+Ash+Timothy&publication+year=1989&pages=61-70>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn49" aria-flowto="reference-48-content reference-48-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 48 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-48-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">48</sup></span> Havel (fn. 9), 39; emphasis in original.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn50" aria-flowto="reference-49-content reference-49-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 49 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-49-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">49</sup></span> <a class="xref bibr" href="#ref043">Ibid</a>., 39.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn51" aria-flowto="reference-50-content reference-50-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 50 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-50-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">50</sup></span> <a class="xref bibr" href="#ref043">Ibid</a>., 37.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn52" aria-flowto="reference-51-content reference-51-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 51 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-51-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">51</sup></span> Timothy Garton Ash, “Eastern Europe: The Year of Truth,” <em class="italic">New York Review of Books</em>, February 15, 1990, p. 18; emphasis in original.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn53" aria-flowto="reference-52-content reference-52-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 52 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-52-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">52</sup></span> Wierzbicki (fn. 45), 206–7.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn54" aria-flowto="reference-53-content reference-53-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 53 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-53-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">53</sup></span> Havel (fn. 9), 37.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn55" aria-flowto="reference-54-content reference-54-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 54 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-54-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">54</sup></span> The metaphor belongs to <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref044" id="ref044"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Moore</span>, <span class="given-names">Barrington</span> <span class="suffix">Jr.</span></span>, <span class="source">Injustice: The Social Bases of Obedience and Revolt</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">White Plains, N.Y.:</span><span class="publisher-name">M. E. Sharpe</span>, <span class="year">1978</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for Injustice: The Social Bases of Obedience and Revolt' href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-15916-1>CrossRef</a><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Injustice: The Social Bases of Obedience and Revolt' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Injustice%3A+The+Social+Bases+of+Obedience+and+Revolt&author=Moore+Barrington&publication+year=1978>Google Scholar</a></span>).</p></div></div></div><div id="fn56" aria-flowto="reference-55-content reference-55-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 55 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-55-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">55</sup></span> Cited by <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref045" id="ref045"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Elias</span>, <span class="given-names">Norbert</span></span>, <span class="source">Power and Civility</span> (<span class="year">1939</span>), trans. <span class="name"><span class="surname">Jephcott</span>, <span class="given-names">Edmund</span></span> (<span class="publisher-loc">New York:</span><span class="publisher-name">Pantheon</span>, <span class="year">1982</span>), <span class="fpage">197</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Power and Civility' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Power+and+Civility&author=Elias+Norbert&author=Jephcott+Edmund&publication+year=1939>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn57" aria-flowto="reference-56-content reference-56-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 56 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-56-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">56</sup></span> <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref046" id="ref046"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Otava</span>, <span class="given-names">Jiří</span></span>, <span class="article-title">“Public Opinion Research in Czechoslovakia,”</span> <span class="source">Social Research</span> <span class="volume">55</span> (Spring-Summer <span class="year">1988</span>), <span class="fpage">249</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Public Opinion Research in Czechoslovakia,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPublic+Opinion+Research+in+Czechoslovakia%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Otava+Ji%C5%99%C3%AD&publication+year=1988&journal=Social+Research&volume=55>Google Scholar</a></span>. Every issue of the Czechoslovak government's official bulletin on public opinion stated: “We remind all researchers that this bulletin is not meant for the public, which means not even for your friends and acquaintances, but serves exclusively as internal material for poll-takers and those who collaborate with us” (p. 251 n. 2).</p></div></div></div><div id="fn58" aria-flowto="reference-57-content reference-57-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 57 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-57-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">57</sup></span> See <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref047" id="ref047"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Tismaneanu</span>, <span class="given-names">Vladimir</span></span>, <span class="source">The Crisis of Marxist Ideology in Eastern Europe: The Poverty of Utopia</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">London:</span><span class="publisher-name">Routledge</span>, <span class="year">1988</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Crisis of Marxist Ideology in Eastern Europe: The Poverty of Utopia' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=The+Crisis+of+Marxist+Ideology+in+Eastern+Europe%3A+The+Poverty+of+Utopia&author=Tismaneanu+Vladimir&publication+year=1988>Google Scholar</a></span>), esp. chap. 4.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn59" aria-flowto="reference-58-content reference-58-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 58 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-58-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">58</sup></span> <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref048" id="ref048"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Hart</span>, <span class="given-names">Henry O.</span></span>, <span class="article-title">“The Tables Turned: If East Europeans Could Vote,”</span> <span class="source">Public Opinion</span> <span class="volume">6</span> (October-November <span class="year">1983</span>), <span class="fpage">53</span>–<span class="lpage">57</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “The Tables Turned: If East Europeans Could Vote,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CThe+Tables+Turned%3A+If+East+Europeans+Could+Vote%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Hart+Henry+O.&publication+year=1983&journal=Public+Opinion&volume=6&pages=53-57>Google Scholar</a></span>. The surveys reported by Hart cover Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn60" aria-flowto="reference-59-content reference-59-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 59 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-59-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">59</sup></span> “Daten des Zentralinstituts fur Jugendforshung Leipzig” (Mimeograph), Tables 1 and 2. These tables were compiled by Walter Friedrich, the director of the institute, and distributed to the participants at a conference held in Ladenburg in February 1991, under the auspices of the Gottlieb Daimler and Karl Benz Foundation. Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann brought the document to my attention; John Ahouse translated it into English.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn61" aria-flowto="reference-60-content reference-60-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 60 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-60-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">60</sup></span> For a fuller argument on how preference falsification distorts public discourse and how, in turn, this distortion warps the evolution of people's private preferences, see <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref049" id="ref049"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Kuran</span>, <span class="given-names">Timur</span></span>, “The Role of Deception in Political Competition,” in <span class="name"><span class="surname">Breton</span>, <span class="given-names">Albert</span></span> et al., eds., <span class="source">The Compel-itive State</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">Boston:</span><span class="publisher-name">Kluwer-Nijhoff</span>, <span class="year">1990</span>), <span class="fpage">71</span>–<span class="lpage">95</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Compel-itive State' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=The+Compel-itive+State&author=Kuran+Timur&author=Breton+Albert&publication+year=1990&pages=71-95>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn62" aria-flowto="reference-61-content reference-61-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 61 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-61-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">61</sup></span> Though Shlapentokh develops the argument with respect to the Soviet Union, it applies also to Eastern Europe. See <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref050" id="ref050"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Shlapentokh</span>, </span>, <span class="source">Soviet Public Opinion and Ideology: Mythology ani Pragmatism in Interaction</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">New York:</span><span class="publisher-name">Praeger</span>, <span class="year">1986</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Soviet Public Opinion and Ideology: Mythology ani Pragmatism in Interaction' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Soviet+Public+Opinion+and+Ideology%3A+Mythology+ani+Pragmatism+in+Interaction&author=Shlapentokh+&publication+year=1986>Google Scholar</a></span>); and idem, <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref051" id="ref051"><span class="source">Public and Private Life oftkt Soviet People: Changing Values in Post-Stalin Russia</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">New York:</span><span class="publisher-name">Oxford University Press</span>, <span class="year">1989</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Public and Private Life oftkt Soviet People: Changing Values in Post-Stalin Russia' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Public+and+Private+Life+oftkt+Soviet+People:+Changing+Values+in+Post-Stalin+Russia+(New+York:Oxford+University+Press,+1989>Google Scholar</a></span>).</p></div></div></div><div id="fn63" aria-flowto="reference-62-content reference-62-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 62 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-62-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">62</sup></span> See <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref052" id="ref052"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Holland</span>, <span class="given-names">John H.</span></span> et al., <span class="source">Induction: Processes of Inference, Learning, and Discovery</span> [(<span class="publisher-loc">Cambridge:</span><span class="publisher-name">MIT Press</span>, <span class="year">1986</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Induction: Processes of Inference, Learning, and Discovery' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Induction%3A+Processes+of+Inference%2C+Learning%2C+and+Discovery&author=Holland+John+H.&publication+year=1986>Google Scholar</a></span>); and <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref053" id="ref053"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Tversky</span>, <span class="given-names">Amos</span></span> and <span class="name"><span class="surname">Kahneman</span>, <span class="given-names">Daniel</span></span>, <span class="article-title">“The Framing [of Decisions and the Rationality of Choice,”</span> <span class="source">Science</span> <span class="volume">211</span> (January <span class="year">1981</span>), <span class="fpage">453</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “The Framing [of Decisions and the Rationality of Choice,”' href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.7455683>CrossRef</a><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “The Framing [of Decisions and the Rationality of Choice,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CThe+Framing+%5Bof+Decisions+and+the+Rationality+of+Choice%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Tversky+Amos&author=Kahneman+Daniel&publication+year=1981&journal=Science&volume=211&doi=10.1126%2Fscience.7455683>Google Scholar</a></span>–58.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn64" aria-flowto="reference-63-content reference-63-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 63 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-63-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">63</sup></span> For details, see <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref054" id="ref054"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Tucker</span>, <span class="given-names">Robert C.</span></span>, <span class="source">Political Culture and Leadership in Soviet Russia: From Lenin to Gorbachev</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">New York:</span><span class="publisher-name">W. W. Norton</span>, <span class="year">1987</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Political Culture and Leadership in Soviet Russia: From Lenin to Gorbachev' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Political+Culture+and+Leadership+in+Soviet+Russia%3A+From+Lenin+to+Gorbachev&author=Tucker+Robert+C.&publication+year=1987>Google Scholar</a></span>), chap. 7.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn65" aria-flowto="reference-64-content reference-64-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 64 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-64-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">64</sup></span> <em class="italic">Economist,</em> July 18, 1987, p. 45.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn66" aria-flowto="reference-65-content reference-65-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 65 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-65-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">65</sup></span> Z [anonymous], “To the Stalin Mausoleum,” <em class="italic">Daedalus</em> 119 (Winter 1990), 332.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn67" aria-flowto="reference-66-content reference-66-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 66 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-66-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">66</sup></span> With the revolution, the notion that Gorbachev would turn to the army and the KGB in a bid to stay in power lost plausibility. It regained plausibility in late 1990 with the resignation of his foreign minister, Eduard Shevardnadze, who publicly accused Gorbachev of plotting with hard-liners to create a repressive dictatorship.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn68" aria-flowto="reference-67-content reference-67-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 67 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-67-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">67</sup></span> Recorded by <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref055" id="ref055"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Bell</span>, <span class="given-names">Daniel</span></span>, <span class="article-title">“As We Go into the Nineties: Some Outlines of the I wenty-first Century,”</span> <span class="source">Dissent</span> <span 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id="ref056"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Kon</span>, <span class="given-names">Igor</span></span>, <span class="article-title">“The Psychology of Social Inertia”</span> (<span class="year">1988</span>), <span class="source">Social Sciences</span> <span class="volume">20</span>, <span class="issue">no. 1</span> (<span class="year">1989</span>), <span class="fpage">60</span>–<span class="lpage">74</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “The Psychology of Social Inertia”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CThe+Psychology+of+Social+Inertia%E2%80%9D&author=Kon+Igor&publication+year=1988&journal=Social+Sciences&volume=20&pages=60-74>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn70" aria-flowto="reference-69-content reference-69-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 69 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-69-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">69</sup></span> Gennadii Batyagin, TASS, June 28,1989, quoted by <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref057" id="ref057"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Teague</span>, <span class="given-names">Elizabeth</span></span>, <span class="article-title">“Perestroika and the Soviet Worker,”</span> <span class="source">Government and Opposition</span> <span class="volume">25</span> (Spring <span class="year">1990</span>), <span class="fpage">192</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Perestroika and the Soviet Worker,”' href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.1990.tb00755.x>CrossRef</a><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Perestroika and the Soviet Worker,”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPerestroika+and+the+Soviet+Worker%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Teague+Elizabeth&publication+year=1990&journal=Government+and+Opposition&volume=25&doi=10.1111%2Fj.1477-7053.1990.tb00755.x>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn71" aria-flowto="reference-70-content reference-70-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 70 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-70-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">70</sup></span> <em class="italic">Economist,</em> July 18, 1987, p. 45.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn72" aria-flowto="reference-71-content reference-71-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 71 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-71-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">71</sup></span> Timothy Garton Ash, “Germany Unbound,” <em class="italic">New York Review of Books,</em> November 22, 1990, p. 12.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn73" aria-flowto="reference-72-content reference-72-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 72 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-72-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">72</sup></span> “Daten des Zentralinstituts für Jugendforschung Leipzig” (fn. 59), Tables 1 and 2.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn74" aria-flowto="reference-73-content reference-73-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 73 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-73-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">73</sup></span> This account draws on Ash (fn. 19); Anderson (fn. 26); and the <em class="italic">New York Times</em> reports compiled in Gwertzman and Kaufman (fn. 1), 158–60, 166–84, 216–22.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn75" aria-flowto="reference-74-content reference-74-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 74 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-74-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">74</sup></span> <em class="italic">New York, Times,</em> August 18, 1989, p. 1.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn76" aria-flowto="reference-75-content reference-75-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 75 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-75-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">75</sup></span> <a class="xref bibr" href="#ref057">Ibid</a>., October 8, 1989, p. 1. For a fuller account of the transformation, see Abel (fn. 14), chap. 2.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn77" aria-flowto="reference-76-content reference-76-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 76 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-76-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">76</sup></span> <em class="italic">New York Times,</em> October 26, 1989, p. 1.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn78" aria-flowto="reference-77-content reference-77-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 77 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-77-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">77</sup></span> <a class="xref bibr" href="#ref057">Ibid</a>., November 16, 1989, p. 1.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn79" aria-flowto="reference-78-content reference-78-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 78 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-78-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">78</sup></span> For an eyewitness account of these events, see Timothy Garton Ash, “The Revolution of the Magic Lantern,” <em class="italic">New Yor\ Review ofBooks,</em> January 18, 1990,42–51. See also Abel (fn. 14), chap. 3.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn80" aria-flowto="reference-79-content reference-79-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 79 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-79-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">79</sup></span> <em class="italic">Economist,</em> December 2, 1989, p. 55.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn81" aria-flowto="reference-80-content reference-80-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 80 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-80-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">80</sup></span> For a demonstration, see Kuran (fn. 31).</p></div></div></div><div id="fn82" aria-flowto="reference-81-content reference-81-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 81 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-81-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">81</sup></span> The pace of events was undoubtedly a key factor also in the failure of conservative groups in the Soviet Union to block Eastern Europe's liberation. Had events proceeded more slowly, they might have had time to oust Gorbachev and order the Red Army into action.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn83" aria-flowto="reference-82-content reference-82-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 82 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-82-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">82</sup></span> Ash (fn. 51).</p></div></div></div><div id="fn84" aria-flowto="reference-83-content reference-83-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 83 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-83-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">83</sup></span> “Czechoslovakia: The Velvet Revolution,” <em class="italic">Uncaptive Minds</em> 3 (January-February 1990), 11.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn85" aria-flowto="reference-84-content reference-84-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 84 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-84-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">84</sup></span> For the <em class="italic">New York Times</em> reports of these events, see Gwertzman and Kaufman (fn. 1), 332–39.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn86" aria-flowto="reference-85-content reference-85-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 85 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-85-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">85</sup></span> William M. Brinton, “Gorbachev and the Revolution of 1989–90,” in Brinton and Rinz-ler (fn. 11), 373.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn87" aria-flowto="reference-86-content reference-86-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 86 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-86-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">86</sup></span> Tocqueville (fn. 36), 20.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn88" aria-flowto="reference-87-content reference-87-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 87 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-87-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">87</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref058" id="ref058"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Peukert</span>, <span class="given-names">Detlev J. K.</span></span>, <span class="source">Inside Nazi Germany: Conformity, Opposition, and Racism in Everyday Life</span>, trans. <span class="name"><span class="surname">Deveson</span>, <span class="given-names">Richard</span></span> (<span class="publisher-loc">New Haven:</span><span class="publisher-name">Yale University Press</span>, <span class="year">1987</span>), <span class="fpage">27</span>–<span class="lpage">28</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Inside Nazi Germany: Conformity, Opposition, and Racism in Everyday Life' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Inside+Nazi+Germany%3A+Conformity%2C+Opposition%2C+and+Racism+in+Everyday+Life&author=Peukert+Detlev+J.+K.&author=Deveson+Richard&publication+year=1987&pages=27-28>Google Scholar</a></span> and pas sim.</p></div></div></div><div id="fn89" aria-flowto="reference-88-content reference-88-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 88 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-88-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">88</sup></span> For a sample of explanations, see <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref059" id="ref059"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Algar</span>, <span class="given-names">Hamid</span></span>, <span class="source">The Islamic Revolution in Iran</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">London:</span><span class="publisher-name">Muslim Institute</span>, <span class="year">1980</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Islamic Revolution in Iran' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=The+Islamic+Revolution+in+Iran&author=Algar+Hamid&publication+year=1980>Google Scholar</a></span>); <span class="citation simple journal" 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aria-flowto="reference-89-content reference-89-button" class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 89 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-89-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">89</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref064" id="ref064"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Schapiro</span>, <span class="given-names">Leonard</span></span>, <span class="source">The Russian Revolutions of 1917: The Origins of Modern Communism</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">New York:</span><span class="publisher-name">Basic Books</span>, <span class="year">1984</span>), <span class="fpage">19</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Russian Revolutions of 1917: The Origins of Modern Communism' 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class="circle-list__item"> <div class="circle-list__item__indicator"></div> <div aria-hidden="true" data-test-hidden="false" class="circle-list__item__number"> 92 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-92-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">92</sup></span> <span class="citation simple book" data-magellan-destination="ref066" id="ref066"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Kecskemeti</span>, <span class="given-names">Paul</span></span>, <span class="source">The Unexpected Revolution: Social Forces in the Hungarian Uprising</span> (<span class="publisher-loc">Stanford, Calif.:</span><span class="publisher-name">Stanford University Press</span>, <span class="year">1961</span>), <span class="fpage">1</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Unexpected Revolution: Social Forces in the Hungarian Uprising' 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class="circle-list__item__number"> 96 </div> <div class="circle-list__item__grouped"><div id="reference-96-content" class="circle-list__item__grouped__content"><p class="p"><span class="label"><sup class="sup">96</sup></span> <span class="citation simple journal" data-magellan-destination="ref069" id="ref069"><span class="name"><span class="surname">Hayek</span>, </span>, <span class="article-title">“The Pretence of Knowledge”</span> (<span class="year">1974</span>), <span class="source">American Economic Review</span> <span class="volume">79</span> (December <span class="year">1989</span>), <span class="fpage">6</span><a class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “The Pretence of Knowledge”' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CThe+Pretence+of+Knowledge%E2%80%9D&author=Hayek+&publication+year=1974&journal=American+Economic+Review&volume=79>Google Scholar</a></span>.</p></div></div></div></div></div> </div></div>           <div 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</button></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><script>window.__NUXT__=(function(a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h,i,j,k,l,m,n,o,p,q,r,s,t,u,v,w,x,y,z,A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H,I,J,K,L,M,N,O,P,Q,R,S,T,U,V,W,X,Y,Z,_,$,aa,ab,ac,ad,ae,af,ag,ah,ai,aj,ak,al,am,an,ao,ap,aq,ar,as,at,au,av,aw,ax,ay,az,aA,aB,aC,aD,aE,aF,aG,aH,aI,aJ,aK,aL,aM,aN,aO,aP,aQ,aR,aS,aT,aU,aV,aW,aX,aY,aZ,a_,a$,ba,bb,bc,bd,be,bf,bg,bh,bi,bj,bk,bl,bm,bn,bo,bp,bq,br,bs,bt,bu,bv,bw,bx,by,bz,bA,bB,bC,bD,bE,bF,bG,bH,bI,bJ,bK,bL,bM,bN,bO,bP,bQ,bR,bS,bT,bU,bV,bW,bX,bY,bZ,b_,b$,ca,cb,cc,cd,ce,cf,cg,ch,ci,cj){return {layout:"default",data:[{article:{id:"B947420222BF565D0B2D93099E704BF2",metadata:{title:at,htmlTitle:at,subtitle:a,authorsGroup:{authors:{contributors:[{givenNames:"Timur",surname:"Kuran",nameStyle:"western",affiliations:[{text:"University of Southern California"}],isCorresponding:b,notes:a,isAnonymous:b,fullName:"Timur Kuran",searchUrl:"\u002Fcore\u002Fsearch?filters%5BauthorTerms%5D=Timur%20Kuran&eventCode=SE-AU",orcidUrl:d}]},translators:{contributors:[],label:"Translated by"}},collections:[],publishedDate:"13 June 2011",keywords:[],openPracticeBadges:[],doi:{url:"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.2307\u002F2010422",value:"10.2307\u002F2010422"},copyright:{statement:["Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 1991"],holder:["Trustees of Princeton University"],year:[1991]},creativeCommons:d,acceptedManuscript:b,type:"research-article",pageRange:{range:"7 - 48",firstPage:au,lastPage:av},typeDescription:"Liberalization and Democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe",resultTypes:[],commentsCount:aw,topicsAndSubtopics:d},journal:{id:ax,title:k,titleSlug:ay,mnemonic:"WPO",titleHistory:[],isFirstView:b,journalSlug:ay,isCompanion:b,parentCompanionJournalName:k,associatedParentCollection:d,url:az,firstViewUrl:"\u002Fcore\u002Fjournals\u002Fworld-politics\u002Ffirstview",coverUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fstatic.cambridge.org\u002Fcovers\u002FWPO_0_0_0\u002Fworld-politics.jpg",submitMaterialsUrl:"\u002Fcore\u002Fjournals\u002Fworld-politics\u002Finformation\u002Fauthor-instructions\u002Fsubmitting-your-materials",hasHistory:b,latestTitle:k,latestId:ax,hasPastTitle:b,issue:{id:"C58994D74DC2F3422C0859968C284EA9",number:l,title:"Issue 1",publishedDate:"October 1991",printPublishTimestamp:686278800000,url:aA},volume:{id:"6C9C99504B118DDA5D5B9563D209AAB4",number:u,title:"Volume 44",publishedDate:"July 1992",printPublishTimestamp:709952400000,url:"\u002Fcore\u002Fjournals\u002Fworld-politics\u002Fvolume\u002F6C9C99504B118DDA5D5B9563D209AAB4"}},abstract:{textAbstracts:[{title:"Abstract",content:"\u003Cdiv class=\"abstract\" data-abstract-type=\"normal\"\u003E\u003Cp\u003ELike many major revolutions in history, the East European Revolution of 1989 caught its leaders, participants, victims, and observers by surprise. This paper offers an explanation whose crucial feature is a distinction between private and public preferences. By suppressing their antipathies to the political status quo, the East Europeans misled everyone, including themselves, as to the possibility of a successful uprising. In effect, they conferred on their privately despised governments an aura of invincibility. Under the circumstances, public opposition was poised to grow explosively if ever enough people lost their fear of exposing their private preferences. The currently popular theories of revolution do not make clear why uprisings easily explained in retrospect may not have been anticipated. The theory developed here fills this void. Among its predictions is that political revolutions will inevitably continue to catch the world by surprise.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E",lang:aB}]},content:{html:a,tableOfContent:[],footnotes:[],fulltextNotes:[],references:[{id:"fn02",displayNumber:l,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E1\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref001\" id=\"ref001\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EGwertzman\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EBernard\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E and \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EKaufman\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EMichael T.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, eds., \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EThe Collapse of Communism, by Correspondents of “The New York Times”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003ETimes Books\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1990\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003Evii\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Collapse of Communism, by Correspondents of “The New York Times”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Collapse+of+Communism%2C+by+Correspondents+of+%E2%80%9CThe+New+York+Times%E2%80%9D&author=Gwertzman+Bernard&author=Kaufman+Michael+T.&publication+year=1990\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Collapse+of+Communism%2C+by+Correspondents+of+%E2%80%9CThe+New+York+Times%E2%80%9D&author=Gwertzman+Bernard&author=Kaufman+Michael+T.&publication+year=1990",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:v,title:v,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Times Books",date:i,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref001",title:v,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn03",displayNumber:"2",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E2\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E For an early statement of this thesis, see \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref002\" id=\"ref002\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EArendt\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EHannah\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EThe Origins of Totalitarianism\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"edition\"\u003E2d\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E ed. (\u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1951\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E; reprint, \u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EWorld Publishing\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1958\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), pt. \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E3\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Origins of Totalitarianism' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Origins+of+Totalitarianism&author=Arendt+Hannah&publication+year=1951\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E. Arendt suggested that communism weakens interpersonal bonds rooted in family, community, religion, and profession, a situation that makes individuals terribly dependent on the goodwill of the state and thus blocks the mobilization of an anticommunist revolt.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Origins+of+Totalitarianism&author=Arendt+Hannah&publication+year=1951",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:w,title:w,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"World Publishing",date:"1951",tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref002",title:w,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn04",displayNumber:aC,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E3\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref003\" id=\"ref003\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EPipes\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ERichard\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“Gorbachev's Russia: Breakdown or Crackdown?”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003ECommentary\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, March \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1990\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, p. \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E16\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Gorbachev's Russia: Breakdown or Crackdown?”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CGorbachev's+Russia%3A+Breakdown+or+Crackdown%3F%E2%80%9D&author=Pipes+Richard&publication+year=1990&journal=Commentary\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CGorbachev's+Russia%3A+Breakdown+or+Crackdown%3F%E2%80%9D&author=Pipes+Richard&publication+year=1990&journal=Commentary",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:aD,jtitle:o,title:o,volume:d,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f14",spage:x,epage:d,date:i,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:a,au:a},innerRefId:"ref003",title:aD,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn05",displayNumber:"4",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E4\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref004\" id=\"ref004\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EKirkpatrick\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EJeane J.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EThe Withering Away of the Totalitarian State ... And Other\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003EWashington, D.C.:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EAEI Press\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1990\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Withering Away of the Totalitarian State ... And Other' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Withering+Away+of+the+Totalitarian+State+...+And+Other&author=Kirkpatrick+Jeane+J.&publication+year=1990\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E). A decade earlier Kirkpatrick had articulated a variant of Arendt's thesis, insisting that the communist system is incapable of self-propelled evolution. See \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref005\" id=\"ref005\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EKirkpatrick\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“Dictatorships and Double Standards,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003ECommentary\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, November \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1979\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, pp. \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E34\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E45\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Dictatorships and Double Standards,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CDictatorships+and+Double+Standards%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Kirkpatrick+&publication+year=1979&journal=Commentary&pages=34-45\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Withering+Away+of+the+Totalitarian+State+...+And+Other&author=Kirkpatrick+Jeane+J.&publication+year=1990",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:y,title:y,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"AEI Press",date:i,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref004",title:y,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a},{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CDictatorships+and+Double+Standards%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Kirkpatrick+&publication+year=1979&journal=Commentary&pages=34-45",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:aE,jtitle:o,title:o,volume:d,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f16",spage:aF,epage:aG,date:z,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:a,au:a},innerRefId:"ref005",title:aE,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn06",displayNumber:A,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E5\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref006\" id=\"ref006\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EGraubard\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“Preface to the Issue ‘Eastern Europe . . . Central Europe . . . Europe,’ “\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EDaedalus\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E119\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (Winter \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1990\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003Evi\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Preface to the Issue ‘Eastern Europe . . . Central Europe . . . Europe,’ “' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPreface+to+the+Issue+%E2%80%98Eastern+Europe+.+.+.+Central+Europe+.+.+.+Europe%2C%E2%80%99+%E2%80%9C&author=Graubard+&publication+year=1990&journal=Daedalus&volume=119\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPreface+to+the+Issue+%E2%80%98Eastern+Europe+.+.+.+Central+Europe+.+.+.+Europe%2C%E2%80%99+%E2%80%9C&author=Graubard+&publication+year=1990&journal=Daedalus&volume=119",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:aH,jtitle:aI,title:aI,volume:"119",artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f17",spage:"vi",epage:d,date:i,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:a,au:a},innerRefId:"ref006",title:aH,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn07",displayNumber:p,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E6\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Ca class=\"xref bibr\" href=\"#ref006\"\u003EIbid\u003C\u002Fa\u003E., ii.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn08",displayNumber:au,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E7\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref007\" id=\"ref007\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ENaisbitt\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EMegatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EWarner Books\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1982\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Megatrends%3A+Ten+New+Directions+Transforming+Our+Lives&author=Naisbitt+&publication+year=1982\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E). The months following the East European Revolution saw the appearance of \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref008\" id=\"ref008\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ENaisbitt\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EJohn\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E and \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EAburdene\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EPatricia\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EMegatrends 2000: Ten New Directions for the 1990s\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EWilliam Morrow\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1990\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Megatrends 2000: Ten New Directions for the 1990s' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Megatrends+2000%3A+Ten+New+Directions+for+the+1990s&author=Naisbitt+John&author=Aburdene+Patricia&publication+year=1990\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E). This sequel characterizes the East European developments of the late 1980s as an unforeseen “political earthquake” and then \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003Epredicts\u003C\u002Fem\u003E that the 1990s will witness the further erosion of communism (chap. 3).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Megatrends%3A+Ten+New+Directions+Transforming+Our+Lives&author=Naisbitt+&publication+year=1982",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:B,title:B,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Warner Books",date:C,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref007",title:B,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a},{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Megatrends+2000%3A+Ten+New+Directions+for+the+1990s&author=Naisbitt+John&author=Aburdene+Patricia&publication+year=1990",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:D,title:D,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"William Morrow",date:i,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref008",title:D,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn09",displayNumber:"8",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E8\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003EEconomist,\u003C\u002Fem\u003E November 18, 1989, p. 13.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn10",displayNumber:"9",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E9\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple other\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref009\" id=\"ref009\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EHavel\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, “The Power of the Powerless” (\u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1979\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for ' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar?q=Havel,+,+“The+Power+of+the+Powerless”+(1979\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), in \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref010\" id=\"ref010\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EHavel\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E et al., \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EThe Power of the Powerless: Citizens against the State in Central-Eastern Europe\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, ed. \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EKeane\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EJohn\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E and trans. \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EWilson\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EPaul\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003EArmonk, N.Y.:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EM. E. Sharpe\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1985\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E42\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Power of the Powerless: Citizens against the State in Central-Eastern Europe' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Power+of+the+Powerless%3A+Citizens+against+the+State+in+Central-Eastern+Europe&author=Havel+&author=Keane+John&author=Wilson+Paul&publication+year=1985\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar?q=Havel,+,+“The+Power+of+the+Powerless”+(1979",openUrlParams:{genre:"unknown",date:z,sid:c,title:d},innerRefId:"ref009",title:a,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a},{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Power+of+the+Powerless%3A+Citizens+against+the+State+in+Central-Eastern+Europe&author=Havel+&author=Keane+John&author=Wilson+Paul&publication+year=1985",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:E,title:E,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:aJ,date:"1985",tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref010",title:E,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn11",displayNumber:"10",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E10\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Ca class=\"xref bibr\" href=\"#ref010\"\u003EIbid\u003C\u002Fa\u003E., 87, 89, 96.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn12",displayNumber:"11",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E11\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Havel, “Meeting Gorbachev” (1987), in \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref011\" id=\"ref011\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EBrinton\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EWilliam M.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E and \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ERinzler\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EAlan\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, eds.,\u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EWithout Force or Lies: Voicesfrom the Revolution of Central Europe in 1989–90\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ESan Francisco:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EMercury House\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1990\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E266\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Without Force or Lies: Voicesfrom the Revolution of Central Europe in 1989–90' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Without+Force+or+Lies%3A+Voicesfrom+the+Revolution+of+Central+Europe+in+1989%E2%80%9390&author=Brinton+William+M.&author=Rinzler+Alan&publication+year=1990\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Without+Force+or+Lies%3A+Voicesfrom+the+Revolution+of+Central+Europe+in+1989%E2%80%9390&author=Brinton+William+M.&author=Rinzler+Alan&publication+year=1990",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:F,title:F,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Mercury House",date:i,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref011",title:F,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn13",displayNumber:aK,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E12\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Havel, “Cards on the Table” (1988), in Brinton and Rinzler (fn. 11), 270–71.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn14",displayNumber:aL,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E13\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref012\" id=\"ref012\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ETarrow\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ESidney\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“‘Aiming at a Moving Target’: Social Science and the Recent Rebellions in Eastern Europe,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EPS: Political Science and Politics\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E24\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (March \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1991\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E12\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “‘Aiming at a Moving Target’: Social Science and the Recent Rebellions in Eastern Europe,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9C%E2%80%98Aiming+at+a+Moving+Target%E2%80%99%3A+Social+Science+and+the+Recent+Rebellions+in+Eastern+Europe%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Tarrow+Sidney&publication+year=1991&journal=PS%3A+Political+Science+and+Politics&volume=24\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9C%E2%80%98Aiming+at+a+Moving+Target%E2%80%99%3A+Social+Science+and+the+Recent+Rebellions+in+Eastern+Europe%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Tarrow+Sidney&publication+year=1991&journal=PS%3A+Political+Science+and+Politics&volume=24",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:aM,jtitle:aN,title:aN,volume:G,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f1d",spage:aK,epage:d,date:aO,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:a,au:a},innerRefId:"ref012",title:aM,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn15",displayNumber:"14",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E14\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E On the elections and the reactions they generated, see the reports of John Taglibue, \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003ENew York Times,\u003C\u002Fem\u003E June 3–6, 1989. The events leading up to the April accord have been chronicled and interpreted by Timothy Garton Ash, “Refolution: The Springtime of Two Nations,” I \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003ENew York Review of Books,\u003C\u002Fem\u003E June 15, 1989, pp. 3–10. He observed: “Almost no one imagined that the great gulf between ‘the power’ and ‘the society,’ between Jaruzelski and Walesa,; could be so swiftly bridged” (p. 6). For another informative account of Poland's political: transformation, see \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref013\" id=\"ref013\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EAbel\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EElie\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EThe Shattered Bloc: Behind the Upheaval in Eastern Europe\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003EBoston:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EHoughton Mifflin\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1990\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Shattered Bloc: Behind the Upheaval in Eastern Europe' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Shattered+Bloc%3A+Behind+the+Upheaval+in+Eastern+Europe&author=Abel+Elie&publication+year=1990\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), chap. 4. I\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Shattered+Bloc%3A+Behind+the+Upheaval+in+Eastern+Europe&author=Abel+Elie&publication+year=1990",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:H,title:H,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Houghton Mifflin",date:i,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref013",title:H,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn16",displayNumber:"15",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E15\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003ENew York Times,\u003C\u002Fem\u003E November 12, 1989, p. 1. f\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn17",displayNumber:x,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E16\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Question 36 on the East German Survey of the Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach, February 17-March 15, 1990, Archive no. 4195 GEW. I am indebted to Elisabeth Noelle-i Neumann, director of the institute, for agreeing to insert this question into a broader surveyj on East German political opinions.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn18",displayNumber:"17",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E17\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref014\" id=\"ref014\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EFischhoff\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EBaruch\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“Hindsight ≠ Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment under Uncertainty,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EJournal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E1\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (August \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1975\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E288\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Hindsight ≠ Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment under Uncertainty,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CHindsight+%E2%89%A0+Foresight%3A+The+Effect+of+Outcome+Knowledge+on+Judgment+under+Uncertainty%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Fischhoff+Baruch&publication+year=1975&journal=Journal+of+Experimental+Psychology%3A+Human+Perception+and+Performance&volume=1\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–99; and \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref015\" id=\"ref015\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EFischhoff\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EBaruch\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E and \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EBeyth\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ERuth\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“‘I Knew It Would Happen’—Remembered Probabilities of Once-Future Things,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EOrganizational Behavior and Human Performance\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E13\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (February \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1975\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E1\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E16\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “‘I Knew It Would Happen’—Remembered Probabilities of Once-Future Things,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1016\u002F0030-5073(75)90002-1\u003ECrossRef\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “‘I Knew It Would Happen’—Remembered Probabilities of Once-Future Things,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9C%E2%80%98I+Knew+It+Would+Happen%E2%80%99%E2%80%94Remembered+Probabilities+of+Once-Future+Things%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Fischhoff+Baruch&author=Beyth+Ruth&publication+year=1975&journal=Organizational+Behavior+and+Human+Performance&volume=13&doi=10.1016%2F0030-5073(75)90002-1&pages=1-16\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CHindsight+%E2%89%A0+Foresight%3A+The+Effect+of+Outcome+Knowledge+on+Judgment+under+Uncertainty%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Fischhoff+Baruch&publication+year=1975&journal=Journal+of+Experimental+Psychology%3A+Human+Perception+and+Performance&volume=1",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:aP,jtitle:aQ,title:aQ,volume:l,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f1f",spage:"288",epage:d,date:I,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:a,au:a},innerRefId:"ref014",title:aP,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a},{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9C%E2%80%98I+Knew+It+Would+Happen%E2%80%99%E2%80%94Remembered+Probabilities+of+Once-Future+Things%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Fischhoff+Baruch&author=Beyth+Ruth&publication+year=1975&journal=Organizational+Behavior+and+Human+Performance&volume=13&doi=10.1016%2F0030-5073(75)90002-1&pages=1-16",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:aR,jtitle:aS,title:aS,volume:aL,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f20",spage:l,epage:x,date:I,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:aT,au:a},innerRefId:"ref015",title:aR,doi:aT,crossRefLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1016\u002F0030-5073(75)90002-1",pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn19",displayNumber:"18",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E18\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref016\" id=\"ref016\"\u003E“David Hackett Fischer, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EHistorians’ Fallacies: Toward a Logic of Historical Thought\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ELondon:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003ERoudedge and Kegan Paul\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1971\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Historians’ Fallacies: Toward a Logic of Historical Thought' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar?q=“David+Hackett+Fischer,+Historians’+Fallacies:+Toward+a+Logic+of+Historical+Thought+(London:Roudedge+and+Kegan+Paul,+1971\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), chaps. 6–8.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar?q=“David+Hackett+Fischer,+Historians’+Fallacies:+Toward+a+Logic+of+Historical+Thought+(London:Roudedge+and+Kegan+Paul,+1971",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:J,title:J,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Roudedge and Kegan Paul",date:aU,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref016",title:J,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn20",displayNumber:aV,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E19\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E For a compilation of pertinent reports from the \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003ENew York Times,\u003C\u002Fem\u003E see Gwertzman and Kaufman (fn. 1), 153–84. Superb eyewitness accounts include Timothy Garton Ash, “The German Revolution,” \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003ENew York Review of Books,\u003C\u002Fem\u003E December 21, 1989, pp. 14–19; and George Paul Csicsery, “The Siege of Nogradi Street, Budapest, 1989,” in Brinton and Rinzler (fn. 11), 289–302.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn21",displayNumber:aW,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E20\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref017\" id=\"ref017\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EAmalrik\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EWill the Soviet Union Survive until 1984?\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1969\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E) (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EHarper and Row\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003EI\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1970\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), esp. \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E36\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E44\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Will the Soviet Union Survive until 1984?' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Will+the+Soviet+Union+Survive+until+1984%3F&author=Amalrik+&publication+year=1969&pages=36-44\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Will+the+Soviet+Union+Survive+until+1984%3F&author=Amalrik+&publication+year=1969&pages=36-44",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:K,title:K,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Harper and Row",date:"1969",tpages:u,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref017",title:K,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn22",displayNumber:"21",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E21\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref018\" id=\"ref018\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ETismaneanu\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“Personal Power and Political Crisis in Romania,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EGovernment and Opposition\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E24\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (Spring \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1989\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E193\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Personal Power and Political Crisis in Romania,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1111\u002Fj.1477-7053.1989.tb00115.x\u003ECrossRef\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Personal Power and Political Crisis in Romania,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPersonal+Power+and+Political+Crisis+in+Romania%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Tismaneanu+&publication+year=1989&journal=Government+and+Opposition&volume=24&doi=10.1111%2Fj.1477-7053.1989.tb00115.x\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–94.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPersonal+Power+and+Political+Crisis+in+Romania%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Tismaneanu+&publication+year=1989&journal=Government+and+Opposition&volume=24&doi=10.1111%2Fj.1477-7053.1989.tb00115.x",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:aX,jtitle:q,title:q,volume:G,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f23",spage:"193",epage:d,date:j,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:aY,au:a},innerRefId:"ref018",title:aX,doi:aY,crossRefLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1111\u002Fj.1477-7053.1989.tb00115.x",pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn23",displayNumber:"22",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E22\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref019\" id=\"ref019\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EBrecht\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EBertolt\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, “Lob der Dialectic” (In praise of dialectics, 1933), in \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EGedichte\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003EFrankfurt:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003ESuhrkamp Verlag\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1961\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Gedichte' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Gedichte&author=Brecht+Bertolt&publication+year=1961\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), 3:73; poem translated by Edith Anderson.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Gedichte&author=Brecht+Bertolt&publication+year=1961",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:L,title:L,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Suhrkamp Verlag",date:aZ,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref019",title:L,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn24",displayNumber:"23",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E23\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref020\" id=\"ref020\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ESkocpol\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EStates and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ECambridge:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003ECambridge University Press\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1979\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China' href=https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1017\u002FCBO9780511815805\u003ECrossRef\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=States+and+Social+Revolutions%3A+A+Comparative+Analysis+of+France%2C+Russia%2C+and+China&author=Skocpol+&publication+year=1979\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=States+and+Social+Revolutions%3A+A+Comparative+Analysis+of+France%2C+Russia%2C+and+China&author=Skocpol+&publication+year=1979",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:M,title:M,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:r,date:z,tpages:d,doi:a_,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref020",title:M,doi:a_,crossRefLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1017\u002FCBO9780511815805",pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn25",displayNumber:G,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E24\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E The seminal contribution is \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref021\" id=\"ref021\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EOlson\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EMancur\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EThe Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (1965; rev. ed., \u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ECambridge:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EHarvard University Press\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1971\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Logic+of+Collective+Action%3A+Public+Goods+and+the+Theory+of+Groups&author=Olson+Mancur&publication+year=1971\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Logic+of+Collective+Action%3A+Public+Goods+and+the+Theory+of+Groups&author=Olson+Mancur&publication+year=1971",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:N,title:N,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:a$,date:aU,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref021",title:N,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn26",displayNumber:ba,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E25\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E This point is developed by \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref022\" id=\"ref022\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ETaylor\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EMichael\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, “Rationality and Revolutionary Action,” in \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ETaylor\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, ed., \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003ERationality and Revolution\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ECambridge:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003ECambridge University Press\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1988\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E63\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E97\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Rationality and Revolution' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Rationality+and+Revolution&author=Taylor+Michael&author=Taylor+&publication+year=1988&pages=63-97\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E. Taylor also offers an illuminating critique of structuralism.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Rationality+and+Revolution&author=Taylor+Michael&author=Taylor+&publication+year=1988&pages=63-97",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:O,title:O,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:r,date:s,tpages:"97",doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref022",title:O,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn27",displayNumber:bb,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E26\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Edith Anderson, “Town Mice and Country Mice: The East German Revolution,” in Brinton and Rinzler (fn. 11), 170–92.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn28",displayNumber:bc,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E27\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E On the availability heuristic, see \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref023\" id=\"ref023\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ETversky\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EAmos\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E and \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EKahneman\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EDaniel\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003ECognitive Psychology\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E5\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (September \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1973\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E207\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1016\u002F0010-0285(73)90033-9\u003ECrossRef\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CAvailability%3A+A+Heuristic+for+Judging+Frequency+and+Probability%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Tversky+Amos&author=Kahneman+Daniel&publication+year=1973&journal=Cognitive+Psychology&volume=5&doi=10.1016%2F0010-0285(73)90033-9\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–32. The biases that this heuristic imparts to the use of historical knowledge are discussed by \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref024\" id=\"ref024\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ETaylor\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EShelley E.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, “The Availability Bias in Social Perception and Interaction,” in \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EKahneman\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EDaniel\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ESlovic\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EPaul\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, and \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ETversky\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EAmos\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, eds., \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EJudgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ECambridge:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003ECambridge University Press\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1982\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E190\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E200\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases' href=https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1017\u002FCBO9780511809477.014\u003ECrossRef\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Judgment+under+Uncertainty%3A+Heuristics+and+Biases&author=Taylor+Shelley+E.&author=Kahneman+Daniel&author=Slovic+Paul&author=Tversky+Amos&publication+year=1982&pages=190-200\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CAvailability%3A+A+Heuristic+for+Judging+Frequency+and+Probability%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Tversky+Amos&author=Kahneman+Daniel&publication+year=1973&journal=Cognitive+Psychology&volume=5&doi=10.1016%2F0010-0285(73)90033-9",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:bd,jtitle:be,title:be,volume:A,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f28",spage:"207",epage:d,date:"1973",sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:bf,au:a},innerRefId:"ref023",title:bd,doi:bf,crossRefLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1016\u002F0010-0285(73)90033-9",pubMedLink:a},{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Judgment+under+Uncertainty%3A+Heuristics+and+Biases&author=Taylor+Shelley+E.&author=Kahneman+Daniel&author=Slovic+Paul&author=Tversky+Amos&publication+year=1982&pages=190-200",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:P,title:P,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:r,date:C,tpages:"200",doi:bg,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref024",title:P,doi:bg,crossRefLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1017\u002FCBO9780511809477.014",pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn29",displayNumber:bh,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E28\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E For two of the major contribution to this approach, see \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref025\" id=\"ref025\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EDavies\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EJames C.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“Toward a Theory of Revolution,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EAmerican Sociological Review\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E27\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (February \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1962\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E5\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E19\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Toward a Theory of Revolution,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.2307\u002F2089714\u003ECrossRef\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Toward a Theory of Revolution,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CToward+a+Theory+of+Revolution%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Davies+James+C.&publication+year=1962&journal=American+Sociological+Review&volume=27&doi=10.2307%2F2089714&pages=5-19\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E; and \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref026\" id=\"ref026\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EGurr\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ETed R.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EWhy Men Rebel\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003EPrinceton:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EPrinceton University Press\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1970\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Why Men Rebel' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Why+Men+Rebel&author=Gurr+Ted+R.&publication+year=1970\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CToward+a+Theory+of+Revolution%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Davies+James+C.&publication+year=1962&journal=American+Sociological+Review&volume=27&doi=10.2307%2F2089714&pages=5-19",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:bi,jtitle:m,title:m,volume:bc,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f2a",spage:A,epage:aV,date:"1962",sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:bj,au:a},innerRefId:"ref025",title:bi,doi:bj,crossRefLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.2307\u002F2089714",pubMedLink:a},{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Why+Men+Rebel&author=Gurr+Ted+R.&publication+year=1970",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:Q,title:Q,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Princeton University Press",date:"1970",tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref026",title:Q,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn30",displayNumber:"29",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E29\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref027\" id=\"ref027\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ESnyder\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EDavid\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E and \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ETilly\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ECharles\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, “Hardship and Collective Violence in France, 1830 to 1960,” \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EAmerican Sociological Review\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E37\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (October: 1830–1930 (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ECambridge:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EHarvard University Press\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1975\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for American Sociological Review' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=American+Sociological+Review&author=Snyder+David&author=Tilly+Charles&publication+year=1975\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E). For much additional evidence against the theory of relative deprivation, see \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref028\" id=\"ref028\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EFinkel\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ESteven E.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E and \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ERule\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EJames B.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, “Relative Deprivation and Relate Psyechological The ories of Civil Violence: A Critical Review,” in \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EKriesberg\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ELouis\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, ed., \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EResearch in Social Movements, Conflicts and Chamge\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003EGreenwich, Conn.:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EJAI Press\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1986\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Research in Social Movements, Conflicts and Chamge' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Research+in+Social+Movements%2C+Conflicts+and+Chamge&author=Finkel+Steven+E.&author=Rule+James+B.&author=Kriesberg+Louis&publication+year=1986\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), 9:47–69.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=American+Sociological+Review&author=Snyder+David&author=Tilly+Charles&publication+year=1975",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:m,title:m,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:a$,date:I,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref027",title:m,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a},{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Research+in+Social+Movements%2C+Conflicts+and+Chamge&author=Finkel+Steven+E.&author=Rule+James+B.&author=Kriesberg+Louis&publication+year=1986",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:R,title:R,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:bk,date:n,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref028",title:R,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn31",displayNumber:"30",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E30\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E For a detailed analysis of this trade-off, see \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref029\" id=\"ref029\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EKuran\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ETimur\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“Private and Public Preferences,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EEconomics and Philosophy\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E6\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (April \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1990\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E1\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E26\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Private and Public Preferences,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1017\u002FS026626710000064X\u003ECrossRef\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Private and Public Preferences,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPrivate+and+Public+Preferences%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Kuran+Timur&publication+year=1990&journal=Economics+and+Philosophy&volume=6&doi=10.1017%2FS026626710000064X&pages=1-26\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPrivate+and+Public+Preferences%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Kuran+Timur&publication+year=1990&journal=Economics+and+Philosophy&volume=6&doi=10.1017%2FS026626710000064X&pages=1-26",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:bl,jtitle:bm,title:bm,volume:p,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f2e",spage:l,epage:bb,date:i,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:bn,au:a},innerRefId:"ref029",title:bl,doi:bn,crossRefLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1017\u002FS026626710000064X",pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn32",displayNumber:"31",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E31\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E The theory outlined in this section is developed more fully in \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref030\" id=\"ref030\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EKuran\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ETimur\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“Spark and Prairie Fires: A Theory of Unanticipated Political Revolution,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EPublic Choice\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E61\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (Aprf \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1989\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E41\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E74\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Spark and Prairie Fires: A Theory of Unanticipated Political Revolution,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1007\u002FBF00116762\u003ECrossRef\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Spark and Prairie Fires: A Theory of Unanticipated Political Revolution,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CSpark+and+Prairie+Fires%3A+A+Theory+of+Unanticipated+Political+Revolution%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Kuran+Timur&publication+year=1989&journal=Public+Choice&volume=61&doi=10.1007%2FBF00116762&pages=41-74\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E. A summary of the present formulation was delivered at the annual conventioj of the American Economic Association, Washington, D.C., December 28–30, 1990. This pre, sentation appeared under the title “The East European Revolution of 1989: Is It SurprisiiT That We Were Surprised?” in the \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref031\" id=\"ref031\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EAmerican Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E81\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1991\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E121\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for ' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar?q=American+Economic+Review,+Papers+and+Proceedings+81+1991),+121\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–25.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CSpark+and+Prairie+Fires%3A+A+Theory+of+Unanticipated+Political+Revolution%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Kuran+Timur&publication+year=1989&journal=Public+Choice&volume=61&doi=10.1007%2FBF00116762&pages=41-74",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:bo,jtitle:bp,title:bp,volume:bq,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f3f",spage:br,epage:S,date:j,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:bs,au:a},innerRefId:"ref030",title:bo,doi:bs,crossRefLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1007\u002FBF00116762",pubMedLink:a},{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar?q=American+Economic+Review,+Papers+and+Proceedings+81+1991),+121",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:d,jtitle:bt,title:bt,volume:bu,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f40",spage:"121",epage:d,date:aO,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:a,au:a},innerRefId:"ref031",title:a,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn33",displayNumber:"32",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E32\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref032\" id=\"ref032\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ESchumpeter\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003ECapitalism, Socialism and Democracy\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"edition\"\u003E3d\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E ed. (\u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1950\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E; reprint, \u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EHarper Torchbooks\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1962\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), chap. \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E13\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Capitalism%2C+Socialism+and+Democracy&author=Schumpeter+&publication+year=1950\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Capitalism%2C+Socialism+and+Democracy&author=Schumpeter+&publication+year=1950",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:T,title:T,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Harper Torchbooks",date:"1950",tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref032",title:T,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn34",displayNumber:"33",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E33\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Lucid analyses of bandwagon processes include Mark Granovetter, \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref033\" id=\"ref033\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“Threshold Models of Collective Behavior,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EAmerican Journal of Sociology\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E83\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (May \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1978\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E1420\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Threshold Models of Collective Behavior,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1086\u002F226707\u003ECrossRef\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Threshold Models of Collective Behavior,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar?q=“Threshold+Models+of+Collective+Behavior,”+American+Journal+of+Sociology+83+(May+1978),+1420\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–43; and \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref034\" id=\"ref034\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ESchelling\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EThomas C.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EMicromotives and Macrobehavior\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EW. W. Norton\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1978\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Micromotives and Macrobehavior' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Micromotives+and+Macrobehavior&author=Schelling+Thomas+C.&publication+year=1978\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar?q=“Threshold+Models+of+Collective+Behavior,”+American+Journal+of+Sociology+83+(May+1978),+1420",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:bv,jtitle:bw,title:bw,volume:U,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f42",spage:"1420",epage:d,date:t,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:bx,au:a},innerRefId:"ref033",title:bv,doi:bx,crossRefLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1086\u002F226707",pubMedLink:a},{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Micromotives+and+Macrobehavior&author=Schelling+Thomas+C.&publication+year=1978",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:V,title:V,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:by,date:t,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref034",title:V,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn35",displayNumber:aF,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E34\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Under the term \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003Eimpression of universality,\u003C\u002Fem\u003E the concept was introduced by \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref035\" id=\"ref035\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EAll-port\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EFloyd H.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003ESocial Psychology\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003EBoston:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EHoughton, Mifflin\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1924\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E305\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Social Psychology' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Social+Psychology&author=All-port+Floyd+H.&publication+year=1924\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–9. The term \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003Epluralistic ignorance\u003C\u002Fem\u003E was first used by \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref036\" id=\"ref036\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ESchanck\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ERichard L.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“A Study of a Community and Its Groups and Institutions Conceived of as Behavior of Individuals,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EPsychological Monographs\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E 43–2 (\u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1932\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E101\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “A Study of a Community and Its Groups and Institutions Conceived of as Behavior of Individuals,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CA+Study+of+a+Community+and+Its+Groups+and+Institutions+Conceived+of+as+Behavior+of+Individuals%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Schanck+Richard+L.&publication+year=1932&journal=Psychological+Monographs\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Social+Psychology&author=All-port+Floyd+H.&publication+year=1924",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:W,title:W,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Houghton, Mifflin",date:"1924",tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref035",title:W,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a},{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CA+Study+of+a+Community+and+Its+Groups+and+Institutions+Conceived+of+as+Behavior+of+Individuals%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Schanck+Richard+L.&publication+year=1932&journal=Psychological+Monographs",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:bz,jtitle:bA,title:bA,volume:d,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f45",spage:"101",epage:d,date:"1932",sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:a,au:a},innerRefId:"ref036",title:bz,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn36",displayNumber:"35",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E35\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Relatively high thresholds may also be associated with relatively great vulnerability to social pressure.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn37",displayNumber:"36",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E36\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref037\" id=\"ref037\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ETocqueville\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EThe Old Regime and the French Revolution\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1856\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), trans. \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EGilbert\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EStuart\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003EGarden City, N.Y.:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EDoubleday\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1955\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E177\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Old Regime and the French Revolution' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Old+Regime+and+the+French+Revolution&author=Tocqueville+&author=Gilbert+Stuart&publication+year=1856\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Old+Regime+and+the+French+Revolution&author=Tocqueville+&author=Gilbert+Stuart&publication+year=1856",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:X,title:X,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Doubleday",date:"1856",tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref037",title:X,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn38",displayNumber:bB,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E37\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Each of these is developed by \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref038\" id=\"ref038\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EFinkel\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ESteven E.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EMuller\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EEdward N.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, and \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EDieter\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EKarl\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Opp, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“Personal Influence, Collective Rationality, and Mass Political Action,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EAmerican Polit-al teence Review\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E83\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (September \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1989\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E885\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E903\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Personal Influence, Collective Rationality, and Mass Political Action,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.2307\u002F1962065\u003ECrossRef\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Personal Influence, Collective Rationality, and Mass Political Action,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPersonal+Influence%2C+Collective+Rationality%2C+and+Mass+Political+Action%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Finkel+Steven+E.&author=Muller+Edward+N.&author=Dieter+Karl&publication+year=1989&journal=American+Polit-al+teence+Review&volume=83&doi=10.2307%2F1962065&pages=885-903\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPersonal+Influence%2C+Collective+Rationality%2C+and+Mass+Political+Action%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Finkel+Steven+E.&author=Muller+Edward+N.&author=Dieter+Karl&publication+year=1989&journal=American+Polit-al+teence+Review&volume=83&doi=10.2307%2F1962065&pages=885-903",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:bC,jtitle:bD,title:bD,volume:U,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f47",spage:"885",epage:"903",date:j,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:bE,au:a},innerRefId:"ref038",title:bC,doi:bE,crossRefLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.2307\u002F1962065",pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn39",displayNumber:bF,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E38\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref039\" id=\"ref039\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ETilly\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EFrom Mobilization to Revolution\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003EReading, Mass.:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EAddison-Wesley\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1978\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E).\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for From Mobilization to Revolution' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=From+Mobilization+to+Revolution&author=Tilly+&publication+year=1978\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=From+Mobilization+to+Revolution&author=Tilly+&publication+year=1978",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:Y,title:Y,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Addison-Wesley",date:t,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref039",title:Y,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn40",displayNumber:"39",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E39\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref040\" id=\"ref040\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EOliver\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, “Bringing the Crowd Back In: The Nonorganizational Elements of Social Movements,” in \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EKriesberg\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ELouis\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, ed., \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EResearch in Social Movements, Conflict and Change\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003EGreenwich, Conn.:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EJAI Press\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1989\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Research in Social Movements, Conflict and Change' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Research+in+Social+Movements%2C+Conflict+and+Change&author=Oliver+&author=Kriesberg+Louis&publication+year=1989\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E): 11:1–30.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Research+in+Social+Movements%2C+Conflict+and+Change&author=Oliver+&author=Kriesberg+Louis&publication+year=1989",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:Z,title:Z,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:bk,date:j,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref040",title:Z,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn41",displayNumber:"40",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E40\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E The words of Leon Trotsky, cited by Arendt (fn. 2), 307.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn42",displayNumber:br,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E41\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref041\" id=\"ref041\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ESolzhenitsyn\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, “The Smatterers” (\u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1974\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), in \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ESolzhenitsyn\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E et al., \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EFrom under the Rubble\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, trans. P A. M. Brock et al. (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003EBoston:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003ELittle, Brown\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1975\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E275\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for From under the Rubble' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=From+under+the+Rubble&author=Solzhenitsyn+&author=Solzhenitsyn+&publication+year=1974\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=From+under+the+Rubble&author=Solzhenitsyn+&author=Solzhenitsyn+&publication+year=1974",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:_,title:_,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Little, Brown",date:bG,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref041",title:_,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn43",displayNumber:"42",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E42\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Ca class=\"xref bibr\" href=\"#ref041\"\u003EIbid\u003C\u002Fa\u003E., 276; emphasis in original.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn44",displayNumber:"43",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E43\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Havel (fn. 9), 27–28.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn45",displayNumber:u,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E44\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Manea, “Romania: Three Lines with Commentary,” in Brinton and Rinzler (fn. 11), 327.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn46",displayNumber:aG,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E45\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref042\" id=\"ref042\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EWierzbicki\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, “A Treatise on Ticks” (1979), in \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EBrumberg\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EAbraham\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, ed., \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EPoland:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EGenesis of a Revolution\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003ERandom House\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1983\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E205\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Poland:' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Poland%3A&author=Wierzbicki+&author=Brumberg+Abraham&publication+year=1983\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Poland%3A&author=Wierzbicki+&author=Brumberg+Abraham&publication+year=1983",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:$,title:$,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Genesis of a Revolution",date:bH,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref042",title:$,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn47",displayNumber:"46",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E46\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E The Charter 77 declaration is reproduced in Havel et al. (fn. 9), 217–21.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn48",displayNumber:"47",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E47\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E See \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref043\" id=\"ref043\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EGarton Ash\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ETimothy\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EThe Uses of Adversity: Essays on the Fate of Central\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (1983–89) (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003ERandom House\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1989\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), esp. \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E61\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E70\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Uses of Adversity: Essays on the Fate of Central' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Uses+of+Adversity%3A+Essays+on+the+Fate+of+Central&author=Garton+Ash+Timothy&publication+year=1989&pages=61-70\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Uses+of+Adversity%3A+Essays+on+the+Fate+of+Central&author=Garton+Ash+Timothy&publication+year=1989&pages=61-70",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:aa,title:aa,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Random House",date:j,tpages:bI,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref043",title:aa,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn49",displayNumber:av,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E48\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Havel (fn. 9), 39; emphasis in original.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn50",displayNumber:"49",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E49\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Ca class=\"xref bibr\" href=\"#ref043\"\u003EIbid\u003C\u002Fa\u003E., 39.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn51",displayNumber:"50",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E50\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Ca class=\"xref bibr\" href=\"#ref043\"\u003EIbid\u003C\u002Fa\u003E., 37.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn52",displayNumber:"51",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E51\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Timothy Garton Ash, “Eastern Europe: The Year of Truth,” \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003ENew York Review of Books\u003C\u002Fem\u003E, February 15, 1990, p. 18; emphasis in original.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn53",displayNumber:"52",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E52\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Wierzbicki (fn. 45), 206–7.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn54",displayNumber:bJ,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E53\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Havel (fn. 9), 37.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn55",displayNumber:"54",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E54\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E The metaphor belongs to \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref044\" id=\"ref044\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EMoore\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EBarrington\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"suffix\"\u003EJr.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EInjustice: The Social Bases of Obedience and Revolt\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003EWhite Plains, N.Y.:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EM. E. Sharpe\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1978\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for Injustice: The Social Bases of Obedience and Revolt' href=https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1007\u002F978-1-349-15916-1\u003ECrossRef\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Injustice: The Social Bases of Obedience and Revolt' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Injustice%3A+The+Social+Bases+of+Obedience+and+Revolt&author=Moore+Barrington&publication+year=1978\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Injustice%3A+The+Social+Bases+of+Obedience+and+Revolt&author=Moore+Barrington&publication+year=1978",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:ab,title:ab,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:aJ,date:t,tpages:d,doi:bK,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref044",title:ab,doi:bK,crossRefLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1007\u002F978-1-349-15916-1",pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn56",displayNumber:bL,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E55\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Cited by \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref045\" id=\"ref045\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EElias\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ENorbert\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EPower and Civility\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1939\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), trans. \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EJephcott\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EEdmund\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EPantheon\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1982\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E197\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Power and Civility' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Power+and+Civility&author=Elias+Norbert&author=Jephcott+Edmund&publication+year=1939\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Power+and+Civility&author=Elias+Norbert&author=Jephcott+Edmund&publication+year=1939",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:ac,title:ac,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Pantheon",date:"1939",tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref045",title:ac,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn57",displayNumber:"56",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E56\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref046\" id=\"ref046\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EOtava\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EJiří\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“Public Opinion Research in Czechoslovakia,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003ESocial Research\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E55\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (Spring-Summer \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1988\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E249\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Public Opinion Research in Czechoslovakia,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPublic+Opinion+Research+in+Czechoslovakia%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Otava+Ji%C5%99%C3%AD&publication+year=1988&journal=Social+Research&volume=55\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E. Every issue of the Czechoslovak government's official bulletin on public opinion stated: “We remind all researchers that this bulletin is not meant for the public, which means not even for your friends and acquaintances, but serves exclusively as internal material for poll-takers and those who collaborate with us” (p. 251 n. 2).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPublic+Opinion+Research+in+Czechoslovakia%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Otava+Ji%C5%99%C3%AD&publication+year=1988&journal=Social+Research&volume=55",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:bM,jtitle:bN,title:bN,volume:bL,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f61",spage:"249",epage:d,date:s,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:a,au:a},innerRefId:"ref046",title:bM,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn58",displayNumber:bO,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E57\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E See \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref047\" id=\"ref047\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ETismaneanu\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EVladimir\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EThe Crisis of Marxist Ideology in Eastern Europe: The Poverty of Utopia\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ELondon:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003ERoutledge\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1988\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Crisis of Marxist Ideology in Eastern Europe: The Poverty of Utopia' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Crisis+of+Marxist+Ideology+in+Eastern+Europe%3A+The+Poverty+of+Utopia&author=Tismaneanu+Vladimir&publication+year=1988\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), esp. chap. 4.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Crisis+of+Marxist+Ideology+in+Eastern+Europe%3A+The+Poverty+of+Utopia&author=Tismaneanu+Vladimir&publication+year=1988",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:ad,title:ad,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Routledge",date:s,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref047",title:ad,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn59",displayNumber:"58",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E58\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref048\" id=\"ref048\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EHart\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EHenry O.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“The Tables Turned: If East Europeans Could Vote,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EPublic Opinion\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E6\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (October-November \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1983\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E53\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E57\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “The Tables Turned: If East Europeans Could Vote,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CThe+Tables+Turned%3A+If+East+Europeans+Could+Vote%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Hart+Henry+O.&publication+year=1983&journal=Public+Opinion&volume=6&pages=53-57\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E. The surveys reported by Hart cover Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CThe+Tables+Turned%3A+If+East+Europeans+Could+Vote%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Hart+Henry+O.&publication+year=1983&journal=Public+Opinion&volume=6&pages=53-57",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:bP,jtitle:bQ,title:bQ,volume:p,artnum:"5b17abd26453610a4d960f63",spage:bJ,epage:bO,date:bH,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:a,au:a},innerRefId:"ref048",title:bP,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn60",displayNumber:"59",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E59\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E “Daten des Zentralinstituts fur Jugendforshung Leipzig” (Mimeograph), Tables 1 and 2. These tables were compiled by Walter Friedrich, the director of the institute, and distributed to the participants at a conference held in Ladenburg in February 1991, under the auspices of the Gottlieb Daimler and Karl Benz Foundation. Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann brought the document to my attention; John Ahouse translated it into English.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn61",displayNumber:bR,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E60\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E For a fuller argument on how preference falsification distorts public discourse and how, in turn, this distortion warps the evolution of people's private preferences, see \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref049\" id=\"ref049\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EKuran\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ETimur\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, “The Role of Deception in Political Competition,” in \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EBreton\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EAlbert\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E et al., eds., \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EThe Compel-itive State\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003EBoston:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EKluwer-Nijhoff\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1990\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E71\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E95\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Compel-itive State' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Compel-itive+State&author=Kuran+Timur&author=Breton+Albert&publication+year=1990&pages=71-95\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Compel-itive+State&author=Kuran+Timur&author=Breton+Albert&publication+year=1990&pages=71-95",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:ae,title:ae,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Kluwer-Nijhoff",date:i,tpages:bS,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref049",title:ae,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn62",displayNumber:bq,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E61\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Though Shlapentokh develops the argument with respect to the Soviet Union, it applies also to Eastern Europe. See \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref050\" id=\"ref050\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EShlapentokh\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003ESoviet Public Opinion and Ideology: Mythology ani Pragmatism in Interaction\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EPraeger\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1986\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Soviet Public Opinion and Ideology: Mythology ani Pragmatism in Interaction' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Soviet+Public+Opinion+and+Ideology%3A+Mythology+ani+Pragmatism+in+Interaction&author=Shlapentokh+&publication+year=1986\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E); and idem, \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref051\" id=\"ref051\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EPublic and Private Life oftkt Soviet People: Changing Values in Post-Stalin Russia\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EOxford University Press\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1989\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Public and Private Life oftkt Soviet People: Changing Values in Post-Stalin Russia' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar?q=Public+and+Private+Life+oftkt+Soviet+People:+Changing+Values+in+Post-Stalin+Russia+(New+York:Oxford+University+Press,+1989\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Soviet+Public+Opinion+and+Ideology%3A+Mythology+ani+Pragmatism+in+Interaction&author=Shlapentokh+&publication+year=1986",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:af,title:af,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Praeger",date:n,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref050",title:af,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a},{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar?q=Public+and+Private+Life+oftkt+Soviet+People:+Changing+Values+in+Post-Stalin+Russia+(New+York:Oxford+University+Press,+1989",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:ag,title:ag,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Oxford University Press",date:j,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref051",title:ag,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn63",displayNumber:"62",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E62\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E See \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref052\" id=\"ref052\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EHolland\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EJohn H.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E et al., \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EInduction: Processes of Inference, Learning, and Discovery\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E [(\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ECambridge:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EMIT Press\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1986\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Induction: Processes of Inference, Learning, and Discovery' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Induction%3A+Processes+of+Inference%2C+Learning%2C+and+Discovery&author=Holland+John+H.&publication+year=1986\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E); 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W. 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It regained plausibility in late 1990 with the resignation of his foreign minister, Eduard Shevardnadze, who publicly accused Gorbachev of plotting with hard-liners to create a repressive dictatorship.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn68",displayNumber:"67",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E67\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Recorded by \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref055\" id=\"ref055\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EBell\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EDaniel\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“As We Go into the Nineties: Some Outlines of the I wenty-first Century,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EDissent\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E37\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (Spring \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1990\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E173\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “As We Go into the Nineties: Some Outlines of the I wenty-first Century,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CAs+We+Go+into+the+Nineties%3A+Some+Outlines+of+the+I+wenty-first+Century%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Bell+Daniel&publication+year=1990&journal=Dissent&volume=37\u003EGoogle 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class=\"given-names\"\u003EIgor\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“The Psychology of Social Inertia”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1988\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003ESocial Sciences\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E20\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"issue\"\u003Eno. 1\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1989\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E60\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E74\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “The Psychology of Social Inertia”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CThe+Psychology+of+Social+Inertia%E2%80%9D&author=Kon+Igor&publication+year=1988&journal=Social+Sciences&volume=20&pages=60-74\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CThe+Psychology+of+Social+Inertia%E2%80%9D&author=Kon+Igor&publication+year=1988&journal=Social+Sciences&volume=20&pages=60-74",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:b_,jtitle:b$,title:b$,volume:aW,artnum:"5b17abd36453610a4d960f6b",spage:bR,epage:S,date:s,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:a,au:a},innerRefId:"ref056",title:b_,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn70",displayNumber:"69",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E69\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Gennadii Batyagin, TASS, June 28,1989, quoted by \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref057\" id=\"ref057\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ETeague\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan 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href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPerestroika+and+the+Soviet+Worker%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Teague+Elizabeth&publication+year=1990&journal=Government+and+Opposition&volume=25&doi=10.1111%2Fj.1477-7053.1990.tb00755.x\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CPerestroika+and+the+Soviet+Worker%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Teague+Elizabeth&publication+year=1990&journal=Government+and+Opposition&volume=25&doi=10.1111%2Fj.1477-7053.1990.tb00755.x",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:ca,jtitle:q,title:q,volume:ba,artnum:"5b17abd36453610a4d960f6c",spage:"192",epage:d,date:i,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:cb,au:a},innerRefId:"ref057",title:ca,doi:cb,crossRefLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1111\u002Fj.1477-7053.1990.tb00755.x",pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn71",displayNumber:bI,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E70\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003EEconomist,\u003C\u002Fem\u003E July 18, 1987, p. 45.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn72",displayNumber:"71",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E71\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Timothy Garton Ash, “Germany Unbound,” \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003ENew York Review of Books,\u003C\u002Fem\u003E November 22, 1990, p. 12.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn73",displayNumber:"72",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E72\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E “Daten des Zentralinstituts für Jugendforschung Leipzig” (fn. 59), Tables 1 and 2.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn74",displayNumber:"73",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E73\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E This account draws on Ash (fn. 19); Anderson (fn. 26); and the \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003ENew York Times\u003C\u002Fem\u003E reports compiled in Gwertzman and Kaufman (fn. 1), 158–60, 166–84, 216–22.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn75",displayNumber:S,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E74\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003ENew York, Times,\u003C\u002Fem\u003E August 18, 1989, p. 1.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn76",displayNumber:"75",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E75\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Ca class=\"xref bibr\" href=\"#ref057\"\u003EIbid\u003C\u002Fa\u003E., October 8, 1989, p. 1. For a fuller account of the transformation, see Abel (fn. 14), chap. 2.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn77",displayNumber:"76",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E76\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003ENew York Times,\u003C\u002Fem\u003E October 26, 1989, p. 1.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn78",displayNumber:"77",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E77\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Ca class=\"xref bibr\" href=\"#ref057\"\u003EIbid\u003C\u002Fa\u003E., November 16, 1989, p. 1.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn79",displayNumber:"78",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E78\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E For an eyewitness account of these events, see Timothy Garton Ash, “The Revolution of the Magic Lantern,” \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003ENew Yor\\ Review ofBooks,\u003C\u002Fem\u003E January 18, 1990,42–51. See also Abel (fn. 14), chap. 3.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn80",displayNumber:cc,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E79\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003EEconomist,\u003C\u002Fem\u003E December 2, 1989, p. 55.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn81",displayNumber:"80",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E80\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E For a demonstration, see Kuran (fn. 31).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn82",displayNumber:bu,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E81\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E The pace of events was undoubtedly a key factor also in the failure of conservative groups in the Soviet Union to block Eastern Europe's liberation. Had events proceeded more slowly, they might have had time to oust Gorbachev and order the Red Army into action.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn83",displayNumber:"82",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E82\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Ash (fn. 51).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn84",displayNumber:U,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E83\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E “Czechoslovakia: The Velvet Revolution,” \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003EUncaptive Minds\u003C\u002Fem\u003E 3 (January-February 1990), 11.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn85",displayNumber:"84",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E84\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E For the \u003Cem class=\"italic\"\u003ENew York Times\u003C\u002Fem\u003E reports of these events, see Gwertzman and Kaufman (fn. 1), 332–39.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn86",displayNumber:"85",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E85\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E William M. Brinton, “Gorbachev and the Revolution of 1989–90,” in Brinton and Rinz-ler (fn. 11), 373.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn87",displayNumber:"86",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E86\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Tocqueville (fn. 36), 20.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn88",displayNumber:"87",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E87\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref058\" id=\"ref058\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EPeukert\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EDetlev J. K.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EInside Nazi Germany: Conformity, Opposition, and Racism in Everyday Life\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, trans. \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EDeveson\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ERichard\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew Haven:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EYale University Press\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1987\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E27\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E28\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Inside Nazi Germany: Conformity, Opposition, and Racism in Everyday Life' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Inside+Nazi+Germany%3A+Conformity%2C+Opposition%2C+and+Racism+in+Everyday+Life&author=Peukert+Detlev+J.+K.&author=Deveson+Richard&publication+year=1987&pages=27-28\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E and pas sim.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Inside+Nazi+Germany%3A+Conformity%2C+Opposition%2C+and+Racism+in+Everyday+Life&author=Peukert+Detlev+J.+K.&author=Deveson+Richard&publication+year=1987&pages=27-28",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:aj,title:aj,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:cd,date:bX,tpages:bh,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref058",title:aj,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn89",displayNumber:"88",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E88\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E For a sample of explanations, see \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref059\" id=\"ref059\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EAlgar\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EHamid\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EThe Islamic Revolution in Iran\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ELondon:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EMuslim Institute\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1980\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Islamic Revolution in Iran' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Islamic+Revolution+in+Iran&author=Algar+Hamid&publication+year=1980\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E); \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref060\" id=\"ref060\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EArjomand\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ESaid Amir\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“Iran's Islamic Revolution in Comparative Perspective,”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EWorld Politics\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E38\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (April \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1986\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E383\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E414\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for “Iran's Islamic Revolution in Comparative Perspective,”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.2307\u002F2010199\u003ECrossRef\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “Iran's Islamic Revolution in Comparative Perspective,”' 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href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Roots+of+Revolution&author=Keddie+Nikki+R.&publication+year=1981\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E); and \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref063\" id=\"ref063\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ELooney\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ERobert\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EEconomic Origins of the Iranian Revolution\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003EBoulder, Colo.:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EWestview Press\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1982\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Economic Origins of the Iranian Revolution' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Economic+Origins+of+the+Iranian+Revolution&author=Looney+Robert&publication+year=1982\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E).\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Islamic+Revolution+in+Iran&author=Algar+Hamid&publication+year=1980",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:ak,title:ak,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Muslim Institute",date:"1980",tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref059",title:ak,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a},{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CIran's+Islamic+Revolution+in+Comparative+Perspective%2C%E2%80%9D&author=Arjomand+Said+Amir&publication+year=1986&journal=World+Politics&volume=38&doi=10.2307%2F2010199&pages=383-414",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:ce,jtitle:k,title:k,volume:bF,artnum:"5b17abd36453610a4d960f6f",spage:"383",epage:"414",date:n,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:cf,au:a},innerRefId:"ref060",title:ce,doi:cf,crossRefLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.2307\u002F2010199",pubMedLink:a},{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+State+and+Revolution+in+Iran&author=Bakhash+Shaul&publication+year=1984",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:al,title:al,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Croom Helm",date:cg,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref061",title:al,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a},{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Roots+of+Revolution&author=Keddie+Nikki+R.&publication+year=1981",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:am,title:am,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:cd,date:bV,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref062",title:am,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a},{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Economic+Origins+of+the+Iranian+Revolution&author=Looney+Robert&publication+year=1982",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:an,title:an,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Westview Press",date:C,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref063",title:an,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn90",displayNumber:"89",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E89\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref064\" id=\"ref064\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003ESchapiro\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003ELeonard\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EThe Russian Revolutions of 1917: The Origins of Modern Communism\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EBasic Books\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1984\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E19\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Russian Revolutions of 1917: The Origins of Modern Communism' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Russian+Revolutions+of+1917%3A+The+Origins+of+Modern+Communism&author=Schapiro+Leonard&publication+year=1984\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Russian+Revolutions+of+1917%3A+The+Origins+of+Modern+Communism&author=Schapiro+Leonard&publication+year=1984",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:ao,title:ao,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Basic Books",date:cg,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref064",title:ao,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn91",displayNumber:"90",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E90\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref065\" id=\"ref065\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EChamberlin\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EWilliam H.\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EThe Russian Revolution, 1917–1921\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EMacmillan\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1935\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Russian Revolution, 1917–1921' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Russian+Revolution%2C+1917%E2%80%931921&author=Chamberlin+William+H.&publication+year=1935\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), 1:73–76.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Russian+Revolution%2C+1917%E2%80%931921&author=Chamberlin+William+H.&publication+year=1935",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:ap,title:ap,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Macmillan",date:"1935",tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref065",title:ap,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn92",displayNumber:"91",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E91\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E Further evidence concerning the element of surprise in the French, Russian, and Iranian revolutions may be found in Kuran (fn. 31), sees. 2, 6–7.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn93",displayNumber:"92",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E92\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref066\" id=\"ref066\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EKecskemeti\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EPaul\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EThe Unexpected Revolution: Social Forces in the Hungarian Uprising\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003EStanford, Calif.:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EStanford University Press\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1961\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E1\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for The Unexpected Revolution: Social Forces in the Hungarian Uprising' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Unexpected+Revolution%3A+Social+Forces+in+the+Hungarian+Uprising&author=Kecskemeti+Paul&publication+year=1961\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=The+Unexpected+Revolution%3A+Social+Forces+in+the+Hungarian+Uprising&author=Kecskemeti+Paul&publication+year=1961",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:aq,title:aq,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Stanford University Press",date:aZ,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref066",title:aq,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn94",displayNumber:"93",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E93\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Ca class=\"xref bibr\" href=\"#ref066\"\u003EIbid\u003C\u002Fa\u003E., 60, 84–85.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[]},{id:"fn95",displayNumber:"94",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E94\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref067\" id=\"ref067\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EHavel\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EDisturbing the Peace: A Conversation with Karel Hvíž&ala\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1986\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), trans. \u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EWilson\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"given-names\"\u003EPaul\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003EAlfred A. Knopf\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1990\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E109\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Disturbing the Peace: A Conversation with Karel Hvíž&ala' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Disturbing+the+Peace%3A+A+Conversation+with+Karel+Hv%C3%AD%C5%BE%26ala&author=Havel+&author=Wilson+Paul&publication+year=1986\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Disturbing+the+Peace%3A+A+Conversation+with+Karel+Hv%C3%AD%C5%BE%26ala&author=Havel+&author=Wilson+Paul&publication+year=1986",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:ar,title:ar,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:"Alfred A. Knopf",date:n,tpages:d,doi:a,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref067",title:ar,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn96",displayNumber:bS,existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E95\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple book\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref068\" id=\"ref068\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EDunn\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EModem Revolutions: An Introduction to the Analysis of a Political Phenomenon\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"edition\"\u003E2d\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E ed. (\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-loc\"\u003ENew York:\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"publisher-name\"\u003ECambridge University Press\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1989\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E2\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E–\u003Cspan class=\"lpage\"\u003E3\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='CrossRef link for Modem Revolutions: An Introduction to the Analysis of a Political Phenomenon' href=https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1017\u002FCBO9781139168175\u003ECrossRef\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for Modem Revolutions: An Introduction to the Analysis of a Political Phenomenon' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Modem+Revolutions%3A+An+Introduction+to+the+Analysis+of+a+Political+Phenomenon&author=Dunn+&publication+year=1989&pages=2-3\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=Modem+Revolutions%3A+An+Introduction+to+the+Analysis+of+a+Political+Phenomenon&author=Dunn+&publication+year=1989&pages=2-3",openUrlParams:{genre:g,btitle:as,title:as,aulast:a,aufirst:a,au:a,pub:r,date:j,tpages:aC,doi:ch,sid:c},innerRefId:"ref068",title:as,doi:ch,crossRefLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fdx.doi.org\u002F10.1017\u002FCBO9781139168175",pubMedLink:a}]},{id:"fn97",displayNumber:"96",existInContent:b,content:"\u003Cp class=\"p\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"label\"\u003E\u003Csup class=\"sup\"\u003E96\u003C\u002Fsup\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"citation simple journal\" data-magellan-destination=\"ref069\" id=\"ref069\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"name\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"surname\"\u003EHayek\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003C\u002Fspan\u003E, \u003Cspan class=\"article-title\"\u003E“The Pretence of Knowledge”\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (\u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1974\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"source\"\u003EAmerican Economic Review\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E \u003Cspan class=\"volume\"\u003E79\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E (December \u003Cspan class=\"year\"\u003E1989\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E), \u003Cspan class=\"fpage\"\u003E6\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003Ca class='ref-link' target='_blank' aria-label='Google Scholar link for “The Pretence of Knowledge”' href=https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CThe+Pretence+of+Knowledge%E2%80%9D&author=Hayek+&publication+year=1974&journal=American+Economic+Review&volume=79\u003EGoogle Scholar\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E",item:[{googleScholarLink:"https:\u002F\u002Fscholar.google.com\u002Fscholar_lookup?title=%E2%80%9CThe+Pretence+of+Knowledge%E2%80%9D&author=Hayek+&publication+year=1974&journal=American+Economic+Review&volume=79",openUrlParams:{genre:h,atitle:ci,jtitle:cj,title:cj,volume:cc,artnum:"5b17abd36453610a4d960fa5",spage:p,epage:d,date:bG,sid:c,aulast:a,aufirst:a,doi:a,au:a},innerRefId:"ref069",title:ci,doi:a,crossRefLink:a,pubMedLink:a}]}],figures:[]},pdf:d,classification:[],supplementaryMaterials:[],relations:{corrections:[],correctionsOriginals:[],retractions:[],retractionsOriginals:[],addendums:[],addendumsOriginals:[],hasAnyRelations:b,hasAnyOriginalArticle:b},settings:{hasAccess:b,isOpenAccess:b,displayRightsLink:b,shouldDisplayCrossMark:b,shouldDisplayNasaAds:b,suppressPdf:b,isShareable:b,isAnnotationsEnabled:b,disableArticleCommentary:b,displayArticleCommentaryAsDiscussionLinks:b,isCommentsEnabled:b,hasContent:b,shouldDisplaySubmitContent:b,isResearchDirections:b,isQuestionCollection:b,isMathjaxEnabled:b},citationCount:680,openUrlParams:"?genre=article&atitle=Now%20out%20of%20Never%3A%20The%20Element%20of%20Surprise%20in%20the%20East%20European%20Revolution%20of%201989&jtitle=World%20Politics&title=World%20Politics&date=1991&volume=44&issue=1&spage=7&epage=48&sid=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cambridge.org%2Fcore&aulast=Kuran&aufirst=Timur&doi=10.2307\u002F2010422",ecommerceProducts:{digitalSku:"S0043887100015860",paperBackSku:d,hardBackSku:d},subject:[],permissionUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fs100.copyright.com\u002FAppDispatchServlet?publisherName=CUP&publication=WPO&title=Now%20out%20of%20Never%3A%20The%20Element%20of%20Surprise%20in%20the%20East%20European%20Revolution%20of%201989&publicationDate=13%20June%202011&author=Timur%20Kuran&copyright=Copyright%20%C2%A9%20Trustees%20of%20Princeton%20University%201991&contentID=10.2307%2F2010422&startPage=7&endPage=48&orderBeanReset=True&volumeNum=44&issueNum=1&oa="},breadcrumbs:[{name:"Home",url:"\u002Fcore"},{name:"Journals",url:"\u002Fcore\u002Fpublications\u002Fjournals"},{name:k,url:az},{name:"Volume 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fill="#0072CF" d="M20.4 25.3V15.2h-4.9v2.2h1.1v7.9h-1.1v2.2h6v-2.2h-1.1zm-1.9-11.4c1 0 1.9-1 1.9-2.2 0-1.2-.8-2.2-1.9-2.2s-1.9 1-1.9 2.2c0 1.2.9 2.2 1.9 2.2z"/> </svg> </a> </span> <div id="comment-email-tip_--x--" data-dropdown-content role="dialog" aria-modal="true" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1" class="f-dropdown content medium" data-remove-focus="true" aria-label="Email information"> <div class="close-container"> <a href="#" class="button small transparent-no-border radius tooltip-close-btn" id="tooltip-close-link-comment-email-tip_--x--"> <span class="custom-tooltip-button-remove"> <span class="sr-only">Close Email help</span> <svg width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false"> <defs> <path d="M9.986 0C4.479 0 0 4.434 0 9.916c0 5.469 4.465 9.916 9.986 9.916 5.507 0 9.986-4.433 9.986-9.916C19.958 4.434 15.493 0 9.986 0z" id="a-comment-email-tip_--x--"/> <mask 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