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pipeline at the Rumaila oil field in Basra, Iraq, on April 6. <span class="img-credit"> © Reuters </span> </p> </div> </div> <div class="article-box detail"> <div class="wysiwyg_area"> <div class="articleBodyText"> <p><b>TOKYO</b>   Major oil-producing nations failed to agree on a deal to freeze output at their meeting in Qatar's capital of Doha on April 17, after Saudi Arabia demanded that Iran join the accord.</p><div class="object-left"> <div class="object-left fb"> <div class="object-left"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_112729"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505053144im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/0419t/20160419wti/4376018-1-eng-GB/20160419WTI_small_250.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_112729"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505053144im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/0419t/20160419wti/4376018-1-eng-GB/20160419WTI_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><p>     The development sent crude oil prices falling sharply. With many attributing the failure to political confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, both of which belong to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the momentum of the cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC members that emerged in February may be stalling.</p><div class="page_limit free"></div><div class="page_limit"></div><p>     The meeting was attended by oil ministers from 18 OPEC and non-OPEC countries to discuss a deal reached in Doha in February between three OPEC members -- Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela -- and non-member Russia to freeze their oil production at January's levels to prop up crude prices. The meeting on April 17 was aimed at increasing the number of participants in the deal by more than four times to strengthen the impact on the market.</p><p>     Mohammad al-Sada, energy minister of Qatar, which hosted the meeting, admitted that the agreement had fallen apart. "All participating countries will consult among themselves and with others," he said, suggesting that the deal will be carried over to OPEC's general assembly, slated for June 2.</p><div class="object-right"> <div class="object-right fb"> <div class="object-right"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_112566"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505053144im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/magazine/20160421/20160419_saleh_al_sada3/4368817-1-eng-GB/20160419_Saleh_al_Sada3_middle_320.jpg" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"> Qatar's Energy Minister Mohammad al-Sada takes a question at a news conference following a meeting of major oil producers in Doha on April 17. <span class="img-credit"> © Reuters </span> </p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_112566"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505053144im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/magazine/20160421/20160419_saleh_al_sada3/4368817-1-eng-GB/20160419_Saleh_al_Sada3_article_main_image.jpg" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area"> Qatar's Energy Minister Mohammad al-Sada takes a question at a news conference following a meeting of major oil producers in Doha on April 17. <span class="img-credit"> © Reuters </span> </p> </div> </div> </div> </div><p>     In subsequent oil futures trading in New York on April 17, West Texas Intermediate temporarily dropped by $2.75 to a one-week low of $37.61.</p><p>     While Saudi Arabia is eager to involve as many oil producers as possible in the deal, Iran wants to ramp up its production following the lifting of Western sanctions against the country in January, in order to finance infrastructure improvements and other projects.</p><p>     In late March, Saudi Arabia was expected to soften its stance on Iran and seek the involvement of as many oil producers as possible in the deal, even without Tehran. But three days before the meeting, Mohammad bin Salman, deputy crown prince of Saudi Arabia, said during an interview with Bloomberg News, "If all major producers don't freeze production, we will not freeze production."</p><p>     Iran did not attend the meeting, demonstrating its intent to continue boosting production -- resulting in a backlash from Saudi Arabia and throwing the meeting into confusion. OPEC, therefore, will make a decision on the deal at its general assembly in June.</p><p><b>REGIONAL RIVALS</b>   Saudi Arabia and Iran are at odds over many other issues and have long been rivals. Saudi Arabia is home to the holy Islamic sites of Mecca and Medina and is a titan in the Middle East for Sunni Muslims. Iran, where Shiite Muslims make up an overwhelming majority of the population, has been influencing neighboring countries as the center of Persian civilization since ancient times.</p><div class="object-left"> <div class="object-left fb"> <div class="object-left"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_112675"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505053144im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/0419t/20160419crudeproduction/4374816-1-eng-GB/20160419CrudeProduction_small_250.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_112675"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505053144im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/0419t/20160419crudeproduction/4374816-1-eng-GB/20160419CrudeProduction_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><p>     There are obsessive concerns among royal family members in Saudi Arabia that Iran will improve its ties with Europe and the U.S. after the lifting of Western sanctions and become powerful enough again to pose a threat to the Gulf Cooperation Council that Saudi Arabia belongs to. They are afraid that Iran will exert its influence on countries such as Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, in the so-called Shiite Crescent, a region where the majority population is Shiite or where there are strong Shiite minorities.</p><div class="page_break auto free"></div><div class="page_break auto"></div><p>     Such fears were behind Saudi Arabia's severing of diplomatic ties with Iran early this year, and political discord between the two countries undeniably contributed to the postponement of the deal to freeze oil production.</p><p>     An analysis of international supply and demand for oil shows favorable factors for oil producers. For example, crude production in non-OPEC areas such the U.S., Brazil and the North Sea is showing decreasing trends. Output in the U.S. is considered to have fallen below 9 million barrels a day early in April, for the first time in about 18 months, due to a decline in the high-cost production of shale oil following plunges in crude prices last year.</p><p>     In addition, purchases of gasoline are likely to increase in the U.S. as it enters the tourism season, while demand for gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas in China is firmer than expected. The international market for crude oil therefore is increasingly expected to shift from a glut to an equilibrium in supply and demand toward the end of 2016.</p><p>     Still, Saudi Arabia is likely to remain tempted to keep Iran in check through international meetings of oil producers and OPEC conferences.</p><p>     Mohammad bin Salman has reportedly taken the helm of Saudi Arabia's oil policy since last year as chairman of the Supreme Council for Saudi Aramco, the Saudi national petroleum and natural gas company.</p><p>     Saudi royal family members do not necessarily make decisions based on economic considerations, as they are prompted by political motives as well. With his remarks before the meeting in Doha on April 17, the deputy crown prince may have sought to demonstrate his presence and create the impression that the absence of Iran would jeopardize the occasion, all the while assuming that a supply and demand balance favorable for producers will emerge down the road. The statement may have also stemmed from a royal family analysis that Iran will be unable to sharply increase production and exports of crude oil from its aged oil wells.</p><p>     While OPEC members will seek to reach an agreement on the deal at their June general assembly, Russia deserves close attention. The nation -- which, like Saudi Arabia, produces around 10 million barrels of crude oil a day -- rarely lives up to agreements to cut output, according to Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of FACTS Global Energy, an international consultancy. "The Russians have [given their word] 11 times to OPEC, and they never kept it," Fesharaki told Nikkei Asian Review.</p><p>     If Saudi Arabia and Iran fail to narrow their discord within OPEC, Russia and other nonmembers may retreat further from the cooperative stance that led to the deal in February.</p> </div> </div> <div id="modal-screen_zoom"></div> </div> <div class="pagination no-border"></div> <div class="mgzNextArticleBoxWrap "> <div class="mnabL"> <a href="/web/20160505053144/http://asia.nikkei.com/magazine/20160421-AFTERSHOCKS/On-the-Cover/Sanny-Jegillos-Kyushu-must-learn-from-recent-quake">prev link</a> <div class="mnabImg"> <img src="/web/20160505053144im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/0419t/20160419_masuki_kumamoto/4375689-2-eng-GB/20160419_masuki_kumamoto_small_thumbnail.jpg" width="80" alt=""/> </div> <div class="mnabTxt"> <h4>On the Cover</h4> Sanny Jegillos: Kyushu must learn from recent quake </div> </div> <div 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