Mysteel月报：3月模具钢市场或呈现小涨之势-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>特钢</a>对所有品种每含钼1%上调100元/吨(含税)，每含钒1%上调200元/吨(含税)；抚顺特钢和东北特钢股份对所有含钼品种每1%个Mo价格上调100元/吨，所有含钒品种每1%个V价格上调300元/吨；天工爱和特钢对低合金(Cr12MoV、4Cr13、Cr8系列）上调2%，高合金（DC53、H13、SKD11系列）上调4%-5%，其他非常用钢种(行业化产品）根据合金元素含量涨幅做出相应调整。原料市场，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0303-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁合金</a>钼系、钒系、铬系市场本月均偏强运行，钨系价格窄幅震荡，废钢市场价格先涨后跌。鉴于特种合金原料价格持续上涨，在成本端支撑以及钢厂助推下，预计3月模具钢市场或呈现小涨之势。</p> <p>一、国内模具钢钢厂产量情况</p> <p>据我网跟踪统计特钢类模具钢生产企业31家（不含黄石地区），2月份模具钢总产量为4.37万吨，较2022年1月份增加0.15万吨，环比上升3.55%，较21年2月份同比增加3.55%。</p> <p style="text-align: center"><img alt="" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/03/03/162939.png" style="height: 359px; width: 536px" /></p> <p>图1:2021年以来国内特殊钢钢厂模具钢产量统计数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>二、2月份国内模具钢市场运行情况回顾</p> <p>1、模具钢市场价格走势回顾</p> <p>2月份国内模具钢市场价格小幅拉涨，需求未达预期，其中冷作、热作模具钢均价分别为13750元/吨和18380元/吨。部分城市小幅上调了模具钢市价，市场总体表现略活跃些，但高位成交显有压力。</p> <p style="text-align: center"><img alt="" height="326" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/03/03/162959.png" width="511" /></p> <p>图2:2021年以来国内主流模具钢产品均价走势数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>2、模具钢库存情况</p> <p>据我网所持续跟踪的30家模具钢流通企业调研样本，2月份，市场商家库存在7.21万吨，较2022年1月上升0.233万吨，较21年同比上升2.71%。近阶段市场社会库存有一定的增量，目前厂库、社库略存在一定压力，模具钢总库存或将继续去化。</p> <p style="text-align: center"><img alt="" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/03/18/095158.jpg" style="height: 342px; width: 519px" /></p> <p>图3:2021年至今模具钢社会库存情况数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>三、原料铁合金运行情况</p> <p>2月钒合金市场偏强运行，现钒铁现金价13.5-13.8万元/吨。节后钒铁钢招明显增多，一定程度上带动市场活跃性，目前厂家心态仍旧保持坚挺，观望后期市场成交情况；本月国内钼系市场小幅上涨，月底钼铁主流现金出厂报价在16.6万元/吨。前期市场由于下游需求集中释放同时国内原料价格上涨，市场信心走强，钼铁价格向上。由于价格处于高位，买货商整体偏谨慎，囤货意愿不强，市场多以刚需成交为主，后期关注终端钢厂入场采购情况；国内钨价窄幅震荡为主，目前FeW80主流报17.5万元/吨。</p> <p style="text-align: center"><img alt="" height="337" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/03/03/163158.png" width="510" /></p> <p>图4:2021年至今模具钢主要原料价格走势数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>四、2月份国内模具钢市场价格小幅拉涨</p> <p>（一）2月PMI回升制造业维持复苏态势</p> <p>2022年2月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.2%，较上月上升0.1个百分点，连续4个月稳定在50%以上，显示经济保持稳定运行。分项指数变化显示，2月份，市场需求整体回升，企业生产保持上升，多数行业增速回升，企业对后市预期较为乐观。</p> <p>（二）成本抬升 2月份国内模具钢市场价格小幅拉涨</p> <p>2月份国内模具钢市场价格部分上涨，下游实际需求仍表现较弱。受到成本上涨，现货市场整体价格逐步抬升。但笔者从下游及当前库存来看，市场实际需求并未得到明显释放，大多数以完成年前订单为主，新接订单偏少，市场库存亦在持续累积中。虽然下游终端需求不足，但随着前期低价资源的消化，高价资源陆续补充，且在钢厂生产成本高企的支撑下，预计3月模具钢市场或将趋强运行。</p> <p>（三）利润率下滑较为明显企业出口压力凸显</p> <p>据我网跟踪的数据，2月份国内模具钢出口总量为0.68万吨，占总模具钢产量的13.7%。由于过年的原因，部分出口单子都赶在前期发了。部分以出口为主的企业出口量继续小幅萎缩，利润率下滑较为明显。</p> <p>2月份模具钢市场价格小幅拉涨，需求未达预期。近阶段市场需求并未表现得十分强劲，目前社会库存、钢厂库存微增，刚性需求给予市价的支撑力度减弱。但鉴于特种合金整体价格重心向上，模具钢生产企业利润极度收缩，市场压力陡增。在成本端支撑以及钢厂助推下，预计3月模具钢市场价格或迎来小幅拉涨，特别是高合金产品，还需关注后期市场资金面和下游接单情况。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：顾颖 021-26093810 </br> 资讯监督：陈靖夫 021-26093640 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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