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<!DOCTYPE html><html lang="en"><head><meta charSet="utf-8"/><meta name="viewport" content="minimum-scale=1, initial-scale=1, width=device-width"/><link rel="icon" href="/assets/favicon/favicon16.png" sizes="16x16"/><link rel="icon" href="/assets/favicon/favicon32.png" sizes="32x32"/><link rel="icon" href="/assets/favicon/favicon128.png" sizes="128x128"/><link rel="icon" href="/assets/favicon/favicon152.png" sizes="152x152"/><link rel="icon" href="/assets/favicon/favicon167.png" sizes="167x167"/><link rel="icon" href="/assets/favicon/favicon180.png" sizes="180x180"/><link rel="icon" href="/assets/favicon/favicon192.png" sizes="192x192"/><link rel="icon" href="/assets/favicon/favicon196.png" sizes="196x196"/><link rel="icon" href="/assets/favicon/favicon512.png" sizes="512x512"/><title>As International Climate Talks Devolve Into A "Circus," Unsettling News About Global Heating Emerges | Discover Magazine</title><meta name="user-type" content="anonymous"/><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"Organization","name":"Discover Magazine","url":"https://www.discovermagazine.com","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://www.discovermagazine.com/assets/globalAssets/siteLogo.png","width":"224px","height":"64px"},"sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/DiscoverMag","https://twitter.com/discovermag","https://www.instagram.com/discover.magazine/","https://www.youtube.com/user/discovermagazine","https://soundcloud.com/its-only-science-discover-magazine"]}</script><meta name="description" content="This year likely will end as warmest on record, and new findings show Earth's icy places are suffering. Meanwhile, CO2 emissions continue rising — and efforts to turn the climatic tide are increasingly threatened."/><meta property="og:title" content="As International Climate Talks Devolve Into A "Circus," Unsettling News About Global Heating Emerges"/><meta property="og:description" content="This year likely will end as warmest on record, and new findings show Earth's icy places are suffering. Meanwhile, CO2 emissions continue rising — and efforts to turn the climatic tide are increasingly threatened."/><meta property="og:image" content="https://images.ctfassets.net/cnu0m8re1exe/3We1sNpvwezmha5OjQ0pdX/04c6cf358fc761a134403cc806e85569/Temperature_Anomalies_Oct_2024.jpg"/><meta property="og:url" content="https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/as-international-climate-talks-devolve-into-a-circus-unsettling-news-about"/><meta property="og:site_name" content="Discover Magazine"/><meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"/><meta name="twitter:site" content="@DiscoverMag"/><meta name="twitter:creator"/><meta name="twitter:title" content="As International Climate Talks Devolve Into A "Circus," Unsettling News About Global Heating Emerges"/><meta name="twitter:description" content="This year likely will end as warmest on record, and new findings show Earth's icy places are suffering. Meanwhile, CO2 emissions continue rising — and efforts to turn the climatic tide are increasingly threatened."/><meta name="twitter:image:src" content="https://images.ctfassets.net/cnu0m8re1exe/3We1sNpvwezmha5OjQ0pdX/04c6cf358fc761a134403cc806e85569/Temperature_Anomalies_Oct_2024.jpg"/><meta name="twitter:image:alt" content="Only a tiny percentage of the globe experienced cooler than normal temperatures during January through October. As the red and pink colors in this map of the globe show, almost all of Earth's surface was unusually warm — and a significant portion, including North America, South America, Europe, Africa, and Oceania, was record warm. (Credit: NOAA)"/><meta property="fb:app_id" content="2856110197797247"/><link rel="canonical" href="https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/as-international-climate-talks-devolve-into-a-circus-unsettling-news-about"/><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","mainEntityOfPage":"https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/as-international-climate-talks-devolve-into-a-circus-unsettling-news-about","headline":"As International Climate Talks Devolve Into A \"Circus,\" Unsettling News About Global Heating Emerges","articleSection":"Environment News","description":"This year likely will end as warmest on record, and new findings show Earth's icy places are suffering. Meanwhile, CO2 emissions continue rising — and efforts to turn the climatic tide are increasingly threatened.","keywords":["environmental policy","climate change"],"url":"https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/as-international-climate-talks-devolve-into-a-circus-unsettling-news-about","image":"https://images.ctfassets.net/cnu0m8re1exe/3We1sNpvwezmha5OjQ0pdX/04c6cf358fc761a134403cc806e85569/Temperature_Anomalies_Oct_2024.jpg","thumbnailUrl":"https://images.ctfassets.net/cnu0m8re1exe/3We1sNpvwezmha5OjQ0pdX/04c6cf358fc761a134403cc806e85569/Temperature_Anomalies_Oct_2024.jpg?fm=jpg&fl=progressive&w=350&h=233&fit=fill","datePublished":"2024-11-17T18:25-07:00","dateModified":"2024-11-18T01:27:59.236Z","author":{"@type":"Person","name":"Tom Yulsman","url":"https://www.discovermagazine.com/author/tomyulsman"},"publisher":{"name":"Discover 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href="/planet-earth" class="sc-5cbbf008-0 iwYtAo">Planet Earth</a></li></ul></div></div></div><div class="sc-87d213a0-0 sc-4b98f9c7-0 gdbaPI gnCDei"><div id="articlePageTopMobile"></div><ul class="sc-685c5c16-0 bcBsUH"><li class="sc-f80919c6-0 iYZeLh"><a class="sc-acb0869a-0 cgZEsQ sc-f4d70fa7-0 ersxds" href="https://www.discovermagazine.com"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" height="24" width="24" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" fill="hsl(0, 0%, 100%)" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" stroke="hsl(4, 68%, 52%)" class="StyledIconBase-sc-ea9ulj-0 ebjPRL"><path d="M10 20v-6h4v6h5v-8h3L12 3 2 12h3v8z"></path></svg></a></li><li class="sc-f80919c6-0 iYZeLh"><div class="sc-200b33bd-0 dzIqeJ">/</div></li><li class="sc-f80919c6-0 iYZeLh"><div><a class="sc-acb0869a-0 cgZEsQ sc-36739995-0 blPzUU" href="/environment">Environment</a></div></li></ul><h1 class="sc-4868f6b2-0 kxCvEg">As International Climate Talks Devolve Into A "Circus," Unsettling News About Global Heating Emerges</h1><h2 class="sc-44728060-0 kvvjnQ">This year likely will end as warmest on record, and new findings show Earth's icy places are suffering. Meanwhile, CO2 emissions continue rising — and efforts to turn the climatic tide are increasingly threatened.</h2><div class="sc-47c53dda-0 bePCqU"><div><span><img src="//images.ctfassets.net/cnu0m8re1exe/4X6GxZcHKLREwtVWl9ys4e/7a94cfa7d2df8289ba0c359318932796/imageo_75.png?fm=jpg&fl=progressive&w=24&h=24&fit=fill" alt="ImaGeo icon" class="sc-e706b2c9-0 bjhdPu sc-fafb1cae-0 DhiES" height="24px" width="24px"/><a class="sc-acb0869a-0 cgZEsQ" href="/blog/imageo">ImaGeo</a></span></div><div><span class="sc-2fa50208-0 fuTWQQ">By <a class="sc-acb0869a-0 cgZEsQ" href="/author/tomyulsman">Tom Yulsman</a></span></div><div><span class="sc-73638515-0 gguonj">Nov 18, 2024 1:25 AM</span><span class="sc-92d150c4-0 kmluij">Nov 18, 2024 1:27 AM</span></div></div></div><div class="sc-87d213a0-0 gdbaPI"><div style="display:flex"><div class="sc-4abb9ce9-0 kGGzyr"><div class="sc-5fc35b96-0 llLGAK"><button networkName="facebook" class="react-share__ShareButton" 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6.286 6.022-6.286c.88-.918 2.263-.883 3.102.071.841.938.82 2.465-.06 3.383l-.015.002zm6.777-10.976C47.463 16.84 46.361 16 45.14 16H18.905c-1.2 0-2.289.82-2.716 2.044-.125.363-.189.743-.189 1.125v10.539l.112 2.096c.464 4.766 2.73 8.933 6.243 11.838.06.053.125.102.19.153l.04.033c1.882 1.499 3.986 2.514 6.259 3.014a14.662 14.662 0 0 0 6.13.052c.118-.042.235-.065.353-.087.03 0 .065-.022.098-.042a15.395 15.395 0 0 0 6.011-2.945l.039-.045.18-.153c3.502-2.902 5.765-7.072 6.248-11.852L48 29.674v-10.52c0-.366-.041-.728-.161-1.08l.022.015z" fill="white"></path></svg></button><button networkName="email" class="react-share__ShareButton" style="background-color:transparent;border:none;padding:0;font:inherit;color:inherit;cursor:pointer"><svg viewBox="0 0 64 64" width="32" height="32"><rect width="64" height="64" rx="0" ry="0" fill="#7f7f7f"></rect><path d="M17,22v20h30V22H17z M41.1,25L32,32.1L22.9,25H41.1z M20,39V26.6l12,9.3l12-9.3V39H20z" fill="white"></path></svg></button></div><div class="sc-202ecc93-0 fHxosg"><img src="//images.ctfassets.net/cnu0m8re1exe/3We1sNpvwezmha5OjQ0pdX/04c6cf358fc761a134403cc806e85569/Temperature_Anomalies_Oct_2024.jpg?fm=jpg&fl=progressive&w=660&h=433&fit=fill" alt="Feverish Earth" height="660px" width="433px" class="sc-e706b2c9-0 hIuHOm"/><div class="sc-202ecc93-1 dqnBTe">Only a tiny percentage of the globe experienced cooler than normal temperatures during January through October. As the red and pink colors in this map of the globe show, almost all of Earth's surface was unusually warm — and a significant portion, including North America, South America, Europe, Africa, and Oceania, was record warm. (Credit: NOAA)</div></div><section class="sc-2dbade60-0 dJAeue"><div class="sc-2dbade60-1 ivnhTC"><h2 class="sc-2dbade60-2 cdTYpC">Newsletter</h2><div class="sc-2dbade60-3 deMHqo">Sign up for our email newsletter for the latest science news</div></div><form class="sc-dd7abf72-0 eztMZN"><div class="sc-dd7abf72-1 eifopM"><input aria-label="Email Address" autoComplete="email" placeholder="Email Address" class="sc-335967e1-0 glnGeY"/><button aria-label="Sign Up for Newsletter" type="submit" color="hsl(4, 68%, 52%)" class="sc-c8bbe1ac-0 sc-b65b6186-0 haeKWy OrBVy">Sign Up</button></div><div class="sc-92081554-0 fChjmv"> </div></form></section><div class="instaread-audio-player" style="margin-top:1em"><iframe allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" id="instaread_iframe" loading="lazy" name="instaread_playlist" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-popups allow-forms allow-modals" title="Audio Article" class="sc-d6b1ce84-0 kHOLMP"></iframe></div><article class="sc-426c7a0c-0 kFFBpt"><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">With the U.N.'s </span><a href="https://unfccc.int/cop29" class="sc-acb0869a-0 bxBBvR sc-be2fc1e4-0 jhHupj" color="accent" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">COP29</span></a><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw"> climate conference underway in Baku, Azerbaijan, a flurry of unsettling news about global heating has emerged. </span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">The summit — attended by diplomats from nearly 200 nations, and nearly 60,000 people in total — is intended to be a forum for discussion and adoption of solutions. But this year it's being roiled by even more controversy than usual. Meanwhile, with recent findings showing no easing of our climatic plight, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to take power in Washington. And he, of course, has committed himself to unwinding the transition to climate-friendly energy sources.</span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">Some of the recent climate news has been provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — an agency slated to be "broken up and downsized" in the now-infamous Project 2025, a conservative policy blueprint intended to guide the new administration. </span></p><div id="insticator-container" class="embedid-9d18565e-af4d-4ddd-bfc5-2dbf51c5675e"><div id="div-insticator-ad-1"></div><div id="insticator-embed"></div><div id="div-insticator-ad-2"></div></div><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">According to NOAA, last month was the </span><a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202410" class="sc-acb0869a-0 bxBBvR sc-be2fc1e4-0 jhHupj" color="accent" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">second warmest October</span></a><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw"> on record, bested only by October of last year, and just by a tiny margin. For the year so far (January through October), NOAA calculates that Earth has experienced its warmest such period in records dating back to 1850. </span></p><div class="sc-202ecc93-0 gAMfTf"><div class="lazyload-wrapper "><div style="height:433px" class="lazyload-placeholder"></div></div><div class="sc-202ecc93-1 dqnBTe">The January through October global surface temperature ranked warmest in NOAA's 175-year record at 1.28 degrees C (2.30 degrees F) above the 1901-2000 average. It is practically certain that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record. (Credit: NOAA)</div></div><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">Given the unrelenting planetary fever, 2024 almost certainly will beat out last year for the annual global heating crown, according to the agency.</span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">Global heating is, of course, driven primarily by CO2 emissions. According to a </span><a href="https://globalcarbonbudget.org/" class="sc-acb0869a-0 bxBBvR sc-be2fc1e4-0 jhHupj" color="accent" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">new projection from the Global Carbon Project</span></a><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">, emissions from fossil fuels will reach a record 37.4 billion metric tons in 2024. Although that's a modest rise of 0.8 percent over 2023, the world needs to reverse course and reduce emissions very quickly if global heating is to be tamed at a relatively manageable level. </span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">That point is further emphasized in a new report</span><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CaM_sTK-lrdzlcJxA2ZBxsqkLuu9mSF-/view?pli=1" class="sc-acb0869a-0 bxBBvR sc-be2fc1e4-0 jhHupj" color="accent" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">,</span></a><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw"> published at the COP summit by the </span><a href="https://iccinet.org" class="sc-acb0869a-0 bxBBvR sc-be2fc1e4-0 jhHupj" color="accent" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">International Cryosphere Climate Initiative</span></a><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">. ICCI is dedicated to highlighting what science is revealing about the impact of climate change on regions of the world that are covered in ice and snow, either seasonally or year-round. The work is particularly important because the pace of change in the cryosphere is faster than anywhere else on earth — and what happens there can potentially affect us all.</span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">Among many findings, the </span><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CaM_sTK-lrdzlcJxA2ZBxsqkLuu9mSF-/view?pli=1" class="sc-acb0869a-0 bxBBvR sc-be2fc1e4-0 jhHupj" color="accent" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">State of the Cryosphere 2024 Report</span></a><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw"> concludes that national commitments under the </span><a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement" class="sc-acb0869a-0 bxBBvR sc-be2fc1e4-0 jhHupj" color="accent" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">Paris Agreement</span></a><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw"> to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are far short of what's needed to limit global heating to no more than 1.5 degrees C. On our current course, the report says we'll see "significant overshoot" of that goal.</span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">A slower transition from fossil fuels to zero-carbon sources of energy may seem economically advantageous in the short run. But this "locks in widespread future loss and damage from the cryosphere for decades and centuries, with adaptation needs far higher and more expensive, where still technically feasible," the report states.</span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">Miriam Jackson, an ICCI glaciologist and climate scientist who contributed to the report, emphasizes that the impacts we're already seeing will only increase in frequency and intensity. </span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">"Action to slow down/stop/reverse global warming is like saving for retirement," she told me in an email. "The earlier you start, the easier it is." </span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">Among many conclusions, the report projects that over the long term, exceeding 1.5 degrees C of global heating could melt enough of Greenland and West Antarctica to raise sea level by 10 meters, or nearly 33 feet. About 75 percent of all cities with more than 5 million inhabitants exist below 10 meters of elevation, according to the report.</span></p><div id="leadership-is-needed--but-clearly-lacking" class="sc-81445bbc-0 gNbimG"><h2 class="sc-739331d9-0 iatIbm"><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">Leadership Is Needed — But Clearly Lacking</span></h2></div><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">Avoiding that outcome, along with the intensification and frequency of weather extremes, will require strong leadership. But unfortunately, the recent U.S. election results, along with proceedings at this year's COP summit, suggest we may not be seeing much of it any time soon. </span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">As I pointed out in a </span><a color="accent" class="sc-acb0869a-0 bxBBvR sc-be2fc1e4-0 jhHupj" href="/environment/if-youre-still-unsure-who-to-vote-for-these-two-simple-charts-could-help-you"><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">previous column</span></a><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">, under the Project 2025 policy blueprint, published by the Heritage Foundation, NOAA should be "</span><a href="https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf" class="sc-acb0869a-0 bxBBvR sc-be2fc1e4-0 jhHupj" color="accent" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">dismantled</span></a><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw"> and many of its functions eliminated, sent to other agencies, privatized, or placed under the control of states and territories.”</span></p><div class="sc-202ecc93-0 gAMfTf"><div class="lazyload-wrapper "><div style="height:433px" class="lazyload-placeholder"></div></div><div class="sc-202ecc93-1 dqnBTe">While a visitor looks on, Jennifer Morse of the University of Colorado's Mountain Research Station gestures above canisters she uses to collect samples of atmospheric gases. The samples will be analyzed by NOAA in Boulder as part of a global effort to track rising carbon pollution levels. The high altitude sampling site on Niwot Ridge boasts the third longest running record of atmospheric CO2 in the world. (Credit: ©Tom Yulsman) </div></div><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">From its networks of satellites and observation stations, along with its models and forecasts, NOAA generates terabytes of data every day related to every aspect of Earth's planetary life support systems. These irreplaceable data are crucial for understanding and responding to natural disasters and climate change.</span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">It's not unreasonable to think that dismantling NOAA would result in significant degradation of this work — an outcome that would be akin to gouging out our eyes as we are speeding toward a climatic cliff. </span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">One could hope that Project 2025, which was prepared outside of the Trump campaign, will have only limited influence in the new administration. But that would be naive. </span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">During his first term, President Trump </span><a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/on-the-u-s-withdrawal-from-the-paris-agreement/" class="sc-acb0869a-0 bxBBvR sc-be2fc1e4-0 jhHupj" color="accent" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">withdrew</span></a><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw"> the United States from the 2015 Paris Agreement, a legally binding international climate treaty adopted by 196 parties at the COP21 meeting. Under President Biden, the United States </span><a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/" class="sc-acb0869a-0 bxBBvR sc-be2fc1e4-0 jhHupj" color="accent" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">rejoined</span></a><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">, and then went on to enact far-reaching legislation to hasten the transition away from fossil fuels. </span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">The president-elect has vowed to withdraw again, and also to stymie clean-energy while ramping up oil and gas production. He's also committed to blocking U.S. involvement in any future global climate agreements — like the kind often reached at COP summits. </span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">But if developments at the ongoing COP29 are any guide, those seeking to hobble effective climate action may not need much help from the incoming president. As Angela Dewan, CNN's International Climate Editor, puts it in an </span><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/15/climate/cop29-azerbaijan-ilham-aliyev-chaos/index.html" class="sc-acb0869a-0 bxBBvR sc-be2fc1e4-0 jhHupj" color="accent" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">analysis piece</span></a><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw"> about the summit:</span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">"In what should be one of the most urgent meetings of the year — aimed at slowing a global crisis fast spiraling out of control — the talks have descended into a circus of boycotts, political tirades and fossil fuels celebrations. Its host, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, has been its spectacular ringmaster."</span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">And even before the conference began, the CEO of COP29, Elnur Soltanov, was </span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crmzvdn9e18o" class="sc-acb0869a-0 bxBBvR sc-be2fc1e4-0 jhHupj" color="accent" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">secretly recorded</span></a><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw"> speaking about the prospect of striking oil and gas deals </span><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 cOwLcG">during</span><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw"> the two-week conference.</span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">I asked Miriam Jackson, the glaciologist and climate scientist who contributed to the cryosphere report, what she was observing while attending COP29. She emailed me back to say that "my honest response may be unprintable," and then she offered this take: </span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">"Many diplomats and other participants at COP29 are frustrated at the slow progress. Scientists are especially frustrated, as some of the delegations seem to be approaching this in the way of a business deal, rather than in how to most effectively deal with what we know is the biggest crisis facing humanity." </span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">In a future column, I'll include more of Jackson's perspectives on the COP meeting, as well as what the cryosphere report has to say about the state of the icy parts of the world. I'll also include perspectives from two of her scientific collaborators on the report who are with her in Baku.</span></p><p><span class="sc-4df7a8a0-0 kkhobw">Between now and when the climate summit ends on Sunday, Nov. 22, negotiators may well agree on some salutary, diplomatic language about tackling climate change. 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class="lazyload-wrapper "><div class="lazyload-placeholder"></div></div><div class="sc-342deb74-1 kZLSoz"><a class="sc-acb0869a-0 cgZEsQ sc-f3730634-0 ckUKXg">Login</a></div></div></div></div></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"page":{"title":"As International Climate Talks Devolve Into A \"Circus,\" Unsettling News About Global Heating Emerges","path":"/environment/as-international-climate-talks-devolve-into-a-circus-unsettling-news-about","announce":{},"slug":"as-international-climate-talks-devolve-into-a-circus-unsettling-news-about","adTargetingId":null},"permission":{"isAuthenticated":false,"isClientSessionValid":false,"hasAccess":true,"viewsRemaining":2,"isEntitled":true,"meterHasReduced":false,"previouslyMetered":false,"exceedsLimit":false},"user":{"isLoggedIn":false,"hasMagazineSub":false,"hasNewsletterSub":false,"newsletterSelections":[]},"content":{"article":{"id":"wxBpPCHZpaqnj2akBDDYm","meta":{"publicationDate":"2024-11-17T18:25-07:00","template":"Standard","contentIndex":"None","mostPopular":false,"featured":true,"paywall":false,"modifiedDate":"2024-11-18T01:27:59.236Z","excludeFromListing":false,"articleType":"News"},"refs":{"authors":[{"id":"1xnpzhTelQ3CdbD6Ds2JCo","name":"Tom Yulsman","slug":"tomyulsman","email":"tom.yulsman@colorado.edu","image":{},"hideRightRail":false}],"blog":{"id":"imageo","name":"ImaGeo","slug":"imageo","image":{"avatar":{"id":"4X6GxZcHKLREwtVWl9ys4e","title":"Blog Icon - ImaGeo","url":"//images.ctfassets.net/cnu0m8re1exe/4X6GxZcHKLREwtVWl9ys4e/7a94cfa7d2df8289ba0c359318932796/imageo_75.png"}},"hideRightRail":false},"category":{"id":"6tZUvwJ5d0kRRXM35WFWci","name":"Environment","slug":"environment","sortOrder":1,"hideRightRail":false,"image":{}},"tags":[{"id":"2iKV1ZqCXlnQDB2AcqEb01","name":"environmental policy","slug":"environmental-policy","image":{},"hideRightRail":false},{"id":"1OFGxpKFi7coXuyKJSA9x4","name":"climate change","slug":"climate-change","image":{},"hideRightRail":false}]},"title":"As International Climate Talks Devolve Into A \"Circus,\" Unsettling News About Global Heating Emerges","subtitle":"This year likely will end as warmest on record, and new findings show Earth's icy places are suffering. Meanwhile, CO2 emissions continue rising — and efforts to turn the climatic tide are increasingly threatened.","slug":"as-international-climate-talks-devolve-into-a-circus-unsettling-news-about","image":{"id":"3We1sNpvwezmha5OjQ0pdX","title":"Feverish Earth","description":"Only a tiny percentage of the globe experienced cooler than normal temperatures during January through October. As the red and pink colors in this map of the globe show, almost all of Earth's surface was unusually warm — and a significant portion, including North America, South America, Europe, Africa, and Oceania, was record warm. (Credit: NOAA)","url":"//images.ctfassets.net/cnu0m8re1exe/3We1sNpvwezmha5OjQ0pdX/04c6cf358fc761a134403cc806e85569/Temperature_Anomalies_Oct_2024.jpg"},"body":{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"With the U.N.'s ","nodeType":"text"},{"data":{"uri":"https://unfccc.int/cop29"},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"COP29","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":" climate conference underway in Baku, Azerbaijan, a flurry of unsettling news about global heating has emerged. ","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"The summit — attended by diplomats from nearly 200 nations, and nearly 60,000 people in total — is intended to be a forum for discussion and adoption of solutions. But this year it's being roiled by even more controversy than usual. Meanwhile, with recent findings showing no easing of our climatic plight, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to take power in Washington. And he, of course, has committed himself to unwinding the transition to climate-friendly energy sources.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"Some of the recent climate news has been provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — an agency slated to be \"broken up and downsized\" in the now-infamous Project 2025, a conservative policy blueprint intended to guide the new administration. ","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"nodeType":"insticator","data":{},"marks":[]},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"According to NOAA, last month was the ","nodeType":"text"},{"data":{"uri":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202410"},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"second warmest October","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":" on record, bested only by October of last year, and just by a tiny margin. For the year so far (January through October), NOAA calculates that Earth has experienced its warmest such period in records dating back to 1850. ","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{"target":{"metadata":{"tags":[],"concepts":[]},"sys":{"space":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"Space","id":"cnu0m8re1exe"}},"id":"49kwhXi06oRuv79lDBSsfv","type":"Asset","createdAt":"2024-11-16T22:11:38.068Z","updatedAt":"2024-11-17T23:41:46.636Z","environment":{"sys":{"id":"master","type":"Link","linkType":"Environment"}},"publishedVersion":13,"revision":2,"locale":"en-US"},"fields":{"title":"Warmest Jan-Oct on Record","description":"The January through October global surface temperature ranked warmest in NOAA's 175-year record at 1.28 degrees C (2.30 degrees F) above the 1901-2000 average. It is practically certain that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record. (Credit: NOAA)","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/cnu0m8re1exe/49kwhXi06oRuv79lDBSsfv/5bbe44cdd2fa691d2872fc1a9953d0d2/Screenshot_2024-11-16_at_3.08.27_PM.png","details":{"size":294203,"image":{"width":2628,"height":1158}},"fileName":"Screenshot 2024-11-16 at 3.08.27 PM.png","contentType":"image/png"}}}},"content":[],"nodeType":"embedded-asset-block"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"Given the unrelenting planetary fever, 2024 almost certainly will beat out last year for the annual global heating crown, according to the agency.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"Global heating is, of course, driven primarily by CO2 emissions. According to a ","nodeType":"text"},{"data":{"uri":"https://globalcarbonbudget.org/"},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"new projection from the Global Carbon Project","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":", emissions from fossil fuels will reach a record 37.4 billion metric tons in 2024. Although that's a modest rise of 0.8 percent over 2023, the world needs to reverse course and reduce emissions very quickly if global heating is to be tamed at a relatively manageable level. ","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"That point is further emphasized in a new report","nodeType":"text"},{"data":{"uri":"https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CaM_sTK-lrdzlcJxA2ZBxsqkLuu9mSF-/view?pli=1"},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":",","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":" published at the COP summit by the ","nodeType":"text"},{"data":{"uri":"https://iccinet.org"},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"International Cryosphere Climate Initiative","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":". ICCI is dedicated to highlighting what science is revealing about the impact of climate change on regions of the world that are covered in ice and snow, either seasonally or year-round. The work is particularly important because the pace of change in the cryosphere is faster than anywhere else on earth — and what happens there can potentially affect us all.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"Among many findings, the ","nodeType":"text"},{"data":{"uri":"https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CaM_sTK-lrdzlcJxA2ZBxsqkLuu9mSF-/view?pli=1"},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"State of the Cryosphere 2024 Report","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":" concludes that national commitments under the ","nodeType":"text"},{"data":{"uri":"https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement"},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"Paris Agreement","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":" to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are far short of what's needed to limit global heating to no more than 1.5 degrees C. On our current course, the report says we'll see \"significant overshoot\" of that goal.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"A slower transition from fossil fuels to zero-carbon sources of energy may seem economically advantageous in the short run. But this \"locks in widespread future loss and damage from the cryosphere for decades and centuries, with adaptation needs far higher and more expensive, where still technically feasible,\" the report states.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"Miriam Jackson, an ICCI glaciologist and climate scientist who contributed to the report, emphasizes that the impacts we're already seeing will only increase in frequency and intensity. ","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"\"Action to slow down/stop/reverse global warming is like saving for retirement,\" she told me in an email. \"The earlier you start, the easier it is.\" ","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"Among many conclusions, the report projects that over the long term, exceeding 1.5 degrees C of global heating could melt enough of Greenland and West Antarctica to raise sea level by 10 meters, or nearly 33 feet. About 75 percent of all cities with more than 5 million inhabitants exist below 10 meters of elevation, according to the report.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"Leadership Is Needed — But Clearly Lacking","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"Avoiding that outcome, along with the intensification and frequency of weather extremes, will require strong leadership. But unfortunately, the recent U.S. election results, along with proceedings at this year's COP summit, suggest we may not be seeing much of it any time soon. ","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"As I pointed out in a ","nodeType":"text"},{"data":{"uri":"https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/if-youre-still-unsure-who-to-vote-for-these-two-simple-charts-could-help-you"},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"previous column","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":", under the Project 2025 policy blueprint, published by the Heritage Foundation, NOAA should be \"","nodeType":"text"},{"data":{"uri":"https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf"},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"dismantled","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":" and many of its functions eliminated, sent to other agencies, privatized, or placed under the control of states and territories.”","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{"target":{"metadata":{"tags":[],"concepts":[]},"sys":{"space":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"Space","id":"cnu0m8re1exe"}},"id":"1JpzbAudD3o4ckD1QyvIpr","type":"Asset","createdAt":"2024-11-17T00:24:33.190Z","updatedAt":"2024-11-17T23:58:26.966Z","environment":{"sys":{"id":"master","type":"Link","linkType":"Environment"}},"publishedVersion":120,"revision":2,"locale":"en-US"},"fields":{"title":"Carbon Dioxide Monitoring in Niwot Ridge","description":"While a visitor looks on, Jennifer Morse of the University of Colorado's Mountain Research Station gestures above canisters she uses to collect samples of atmospheric gases. The samples will be analyzed by NOAA in Boulder as part of a global effort to track rising carbon pollution levels. The high altitude sampling site on Niwot Ridge boasts the third longest running record of atmospheric CO2 in the world. (Credit: ©Tom Yulsman)\n\n","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/cnu0m8re1exe/1JpzbAudD3o4ckD1QyvIpr/29361e0fb1ca737e493771d86a594179/Jenn_Leah_CO2.jpg","details":{"size":789477,"image":{"width":1080,"height":810}},"fileName":"Jenn_Leah_CO2.jpg","contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}},"content":[],"nodeType":"embedded-asset-block"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"From its networks of satellites and observation stations, along with its models and forecasts, NOAA generates terabytes of data every day related to every aspect of Earth's planetary life support systems. These irreplaceable data are crucial for understanding and responding to natural disasters and climate change.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"It's not unreasonable to think that dismantling NOAA would result in significant degradation of this work — an outcome that would be akin to gouging out our eyes as we are speeding toward a climatic cliff. ","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"One could hope that Project 2025, which was prepared outside of the Trump campaign, will have only limited influence in the new administration. But that would be naive. ","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"During his first term, President Trump ","nodeType":"text"},{"data":{"uri":"https://2017-2021.state.gov/on-the-u-s-withdrawal-from-the-paris-agreement/"},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"withdrew","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":" the United States from the 2015 Paris Agreement, a legally binding international climate treaty adopted by 196 parties at the COP21 meeting. Under President Biden, the United States ","nodeType":"text"},{"data":{"uri":"https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/"},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"rejoined","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":", and then went on to enact far-reaching legislation to hasten the transition away from fossil fuels. ","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"The president-elect has vowed to withdraw again, and also to stymie clean-energy while ramping up oil and gas production. He's also committed to blocking U.S. involvement in any future global climate agreements — like the kind often reached at COP summits. ","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"But if developments at the ongoing COP29 are any guide, those seeking to hobble effective climate action may not need much help from the incoming president. As Angela Dewan, CNN's International Climate Editor, puts it in an ","nodeType":"text"},{"data":{"uri":"https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/15/climate/cop29-azerbaijan-ilham-aliyev-chaos/index.html"},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"analysis piece","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":" about the summit:","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"\"In what should be one of the most urgent meetings of the year — aimed at slowing a global crisis fast spiraling out of control — the talks have descended into a circus of boycotts, political tirades and fossil fuels celebrations. Its host, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, has been its spectacular ringmaster.\"","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"And even before the conference began, the CEO of COP29, Elnur Soltanov, was ","nodeType":"text"},{"data":{"uri":"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crmzvdn9e18o"},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"secretly recorded","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":" speaking about the prospect of striking oil and gas deals ","nodeType":"text"},{"data":{},"marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"value":"during","nodeType":"text"},{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":" the two-week conference.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"I asked Miriam Jackson, the glaciologist and climate scientist who contributed to the cryosphere report, what she was observing while attending COP29. She emailed me back to say that \"my honest response may be unprintable,\" and then she offered this take: ","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"\"Many diplomats and other participants at COP29 are frustrated at the slow progress. Scientists are especially frustrated, as some of the delegations seem to be approaching this in the way of a business deal, rather than in how to most effectively deal with what we know is the biggest crisis facing humanity.\" ","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"In a future column, I'll include more of Jackson's perspectives on the COP meeting, as well as what the cryosphere report has to say about the state of the icy parts of the world. I'll also include perspectives from two of her scientific collaborators on the report who are with her in Baku.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"Between now and when the climate summit ends on Sunday, Nov. 22, negotiators may well agree on some salutary, diplomatic language about tackling climate change. But if what we're seeing is any guide, it's likely to be a thin veneer of shameless rhetoric hiding a lack of commitment to do anything meaningful.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"That would be quite distressing, because there's really no way around the basic physics of greenhouse heating.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"marks":[],"value":"Or as the authors of the State of the Cryosphere 2024 Report put it, \"We cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice.\"","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}],"nodeType":"document"}},"related":[{"image":{"description":"A Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) rests in the shadows near a rocky reef. 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