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《基加利修正案》正式生效 制冷剂行业有望被“催热”-中国空调制冷网
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Dd('destoon_search').action = DTPath+'api/search.php'; Dd('destoon_moduleid').value = mid; for (i = 1; i <= n; i++) { var menu = document.getElementById(name + i); var cont = document.getElementById("con_" + name + "_" + i); menu.className = i == curr ? "up" : ""; if (i == curr) { cont.style.display = "block"; } else { cont.style.display = "none"; } } } </script> </div> --> <!-- -------------- --> <div class="zc_subnav"> <ul> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="kefu"></div> <!--------head结束----------><style> img{max-width:650px} </style> <!--------head结束----------> <div id="main"> <!--------内容开始----------> <div class="column"> <div class="column_l"> <div class="det"> <div class="det_title"> <ul> <li class="det_title_name">《基加利修正案》正式生效 制冷剂行业有望被“催热”</li> <!-- <li class="det_title_from">来源：<span>新华社</span></li> --> <li class="det_title_from"> 来源：<span>制冷网</span></li> <li class="det_title_time">2021-09-16</li> </ul> </div> <div class="det_title_fenxiang"> <div class="fenxiang"> <!-- JiaThis Button BEGIN --> <div class="jiathis_style_32x32"> <a class="jiathis_button_weixin"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tsina"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_cqq"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_qzone"></a> <a href="http://www.jiathis.com/share" class="jiathis jiathis_txt jiathis_separator jtico jtico_jiathis" target="_blank"></a> <a class="jiathis_counter_style"></a> </div> <script type="text/javascript" > var jiathis_config={ summary:"", shortUrl:false, hideMore:false } </script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://v3.jiathis.com/code/jia.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <!-- JiaThis Button END --> </div> <div class="huifu"></div> </div> <div class="mess_text"> <div class="content" id="article"><div> 9月15日，《〈蒙特利尔议定书〉基加利修正案》（以下简称《基加利修正案》）正式在我国生效。当日，东方财富氟化工板块大涨4.13%，巨化股份、三美股份、永和股份、天际股份、龙星化工等纷纷涨停，滨化股份、中欣氟材、多氟多、永太科技等也均有不同程度的涨幅。</div> <div> </div> <div> “《基加利修正案》对制冷剂行业来说，总体是利好的。短期看，虽然三代制冷剂生产将面临逐步削减，对企业生产经营造成一定影响，但同时也提高了行业壁垒，调整了供求关系。长期看，它将推动制冷剂行业结构性改革，加速产品的迭代更新。随着我国碳交易市场的发展与完善，未来氟化工企业有望通过产品迭代，将剩余的碳排放权变成真金白银。”一家氟化工上市公司的高管告诉上海证券报记者。</div> <div> </div> <div> 对制冷剂行业影响几何</div> <div> </div> <div> “《基加利修正案》已经对国内制冷剂行业产生了很大的影响。”一家大型制冷剂生产企业的负责人如是认为。</div> <div> </div> <div> 据了解，受《基加利修正案》关于氢氟碳化物（HFCs）制冷剂配额削减规则的影响，我国HFCs制冷剂自2017年大幅扩产，2019年进入供过于求、价格回落的下行周期。2020年成为行业竞争配额最为激烈的一年，且产业链上下游又受到疫情冲击，产品价格、行业盈利水平、企业开工率均大幅下降。“进入2021年，随着下游家电、汽车等需求复苏，HFCs制冷剂行业产能规模及竞争格局已逐渐趋于稳定。”上述负责人称。</div> <div> </div> <div> 2016年10月，《基加利修正案》将18种HFCs列入受控物质清单，旨在未来几十年内逐步减少气候变暖。缔约国被要求自2020年1月1日起以缔约方核准的技术对氢氟碳化物进行销毁。我国作为全球最大的HFCs生产国、出口国，于今年4月正式签署协议，将对相关化学品进行管控，包括2024年冻结HFCs生产和消费。</div> <div> </div> <div> 《基加利修正案》规定，发展中国家应在其2020年至2022年HFCs使用量平均值的基础上，于2024年冻结HFCs的消费和生产，自2029年开始削减，到2045年后将HFCs使用量削减至其基准值20%以内。根据《蒙特利尔议定书》及《基加利修正案》，第一代制冷剂已经被全球淘汰；第二代制冷剂被发达国家基本淘汰，我国对其实行配额制度，并逐渐减产。</div> <div> </div> <div> 据业内人士介绍，HFCs是此前破坏臭氧层的氯氟烃（CFCs）的替代品，属于三代制冷剂，广泛用于冰箱、空调的制冷剂和绝缘泡沫生产。尽管HFCs不含有破坏地球臭氧层的氯或溴原子，但也是一种影响极大的温室气体。假如相应趋势得不到控制，那么到2050年，HFCs将会产生3.5亿吨至8.8亿吨的二氧化碳排放，相当于整个地球交通排放温室气体的总和。</div> <div> </div> <div> 制冷剂涨价惠及相关企业</div> <div> </div> <div> “四代制冷剂和现在的碳氢制冷剂最大问题是可燃和易燃，推行比较难。发达国家对三代制冷剂的削减会造成其一定量的使用减少，但业内普遍认为，发展中国家的增量需求应该超过发达国家的需求减量。”上述负责人表示。</div> <div> </div> <div> 国信证券在其研报中表示，在二代制冷剂陆续退出、四代制冷剂普及遥遥无期，而下游需求稳定增长的背景下，三代制冷剂有望在反转后开启未来高景气的“黄金十年”。</div> <div> </div> <div> 记者注意到，因为上游原料涨价、配额制供应有限及下游需求拉动，今年以来，二代、三代制冷剂价格大涨。其中，二代制冷剂HCFC-22国内均价已由年初的约1.37万元/吨涨至2.35万元/吨，可以作为其替代的三代制冷剂HFC-125由1.25万元/吨飙升至5万元/吨。</div> <div> </div> <div> 此外，随着我国产业升级，各领域对新材料的需求不断增加，近两年，PTFE、PVDF等高端氟化工品市场消费量稳步增长，对产品的主要原料——二代制冷剂需求大增。制冷剂生产企业纷纷利用原料优势，延伸产业链。例如，今年以来，因为新能源汽车爆发式增长，PVDF成为热门化工品，作为其主要原料的HCFC-142b价格已由去年的1.5万元/吨暴涨至现在的13.5万元/吨。</div> <div> </div> <div> 目前在A股上市公司中，巨化股份、三美股份、永和股份等拥有二代制冷剂生产配额，同时也是三代制冷剂的国内龙头企业。从各家生产制冷剂上市公司已经披露的今年上半年业绩来看，因为供求紧平衡，二代、三代制冷剂确实提升了其业绩。</div> <div> </div> <div> 今年上半年，巨化股份实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润1.04亿元，同比增长超6倍；永和股份实现归母净利1.1亿元，同比增长68.6%。</div> <div> </div> <div> 推动制冷剂产品迭代更新</div> <div> </div> <div> 《基加利修正案》促进了制冷剂产品迭代更新。据了解，为强化氟制冷剂的龙头领先地位，巨化股份近几年积极对制冷剂产品换代升级。去年，公司第二套第四代氟制冷剂产线——1万吨/年氟化学品联产（一期）项目于四季度投入运行，公司第四代氟制冷剂产能相对2017年实现翻倍，且品种由1个增加到4个。此外，公司技术中心经过10多年的技术研发积累，应客户需求全力技术攻关，开发出数据中心液冷专用冷却液，正实施产业化项目前期准备。</div> <div> </div> <div> 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