Mysteel半年报：2023下半年国内铜箔消费强弱分化明显加工费持续承压-我的钢铁网

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<p><strong>1、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>箔加工费走势分析</strong></p> <p>2023年上半年中国铜箔市场价格持续走低，加工费从年初至今一直呈现出下滑态势，期间随着市场变化各阶段跌幅不一但总体向下，锂电铜箔与电子电路铜箔价格变化情况也不太相同。具来看，年后新能源汽车市场受国补谢幕影响，市场需求放缓，加工费出现断崖式下滑，此外电池端受碳酸锂等原料价格波动影响，开工率下降，需求恢复情况一般，电池企业成品库存高企，电池企业向上压价以缓解成本压力，锂电铜箔加工费持续承压，至四月底4.5微米降幅约15000元/吨，6微米降幅接近10000元/吨。5月到6月末，市场开始回暖，需求增加拉动出货量的上升，但供应也随之增长，加工费无法随着市场的回暖而有所增加，反之在上下游博弈中小幅下滑，截止到6月底，4.5微米锂电铜箔加工费主流报价在40000-45000元/吨，6微米锂电铜箔加工费主流报价在20000-25000元/吨，8微米锂电铜箔加工费主流报价在18000-23000元/吨。电子电路铜箔今年上半年延续了去年下半年的疲软态势，虽然春节之后出现短期向上行情，加工费有所上涨，但从三月至今，电子电路铜箔加工费呈现出稳步下滑情况，逐步逼近成本线，截止六月底，18微米电子电路铜箔加工费主流报价在15000-18000元/吨，35微米电子电路铜箔加工费主流报价在13000-17000元/吨，70微米电子电路铜箔加工费主流报价在15000-19000元/吨。</p> <p style="text-align: right;"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/07/09/e4ca7c8ce4d14f0da95b373e1fa0e9fd.png" alt="" width="554" height="320" /><span style="font-size: 10pt;">数据来源：钢联数据</span></p> <p><strong>2、铜箔供应情况分析</strong></p> <p>据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>调研国内21家铜箔生产企业，总涉及产能81.64万吨，数据显示2023年上半年国内<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----020101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>电解铜</a>箔总产量为33.85万吨，同比增加21.70%。一季度新能源市场需求放缓，在以销定产的生产模式下，厂商主动降低开工率，来缓解自身库存压力，市场供应有所减少，进入二季度，下游市场有所复苏，铜箔企业去库与增产同时进行，市场供应缓慢增加。虽然上半年铜箔市场供应有所波动，但相比去年同期，无论是铜箔产能还是铜箔厂商数量均有大幅增加。</p> <p style="text-align: right;"><img src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/07/09/630e886dfbe249e0894622543f1bcb9d.png" alt="" width="480" height="288" /><span style="font-size: 10pt;">数据来源：钢联数据</span></p> <p><strong>3、铜箔需求情况分析</strong></p> <p>2023年上半年，受需求放缓以及原材料价格大幅波动影响，新能源汽车产业链增速有所放缓，高成品库存影响到电池企业端，电池企业开工率有所影响，但从整体上看，动力电池市场还是不断向上发展的。储能电池上半年快速发展，市场规模迅速扩大，是上半年锂电铜箔新的需求增长点，对锂电铜箔订单采购量大幅增长。根据中国汽车工业协会的数据，2023年1-5月，我国新能源汽车产量为300.4万辆，同比增长45.61%，销量为293.9万，同比增长47.32%。动力电池方面，根据中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟的数据显示，2023年1-5月，我国动力电池产量为224.42GWh，同比增长29.93%。</p> <p style="text-align: right;"><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/07/09/67892e99012b483e83aafc2f8311e388.png" alt="" width="480" height="290" /><span style="font-size: 10pt;">数据来源：中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟、钢联数据</span></p> <p>电子端，今年上半年覆铜板及pcb行业延续了去年的疲软态势，虽然年初有小幅回暖，订单与价格均小幅回升，但持续时间较短，对行业整体发展影响不大，电子电路铜箔以及下游产品订单下滑严重，终端产量产销同比均大幅下降，常规电子电路铜箔供需双弱。特殊规格铜箔方面，受利于新能源汽车板的订单增多，厚箔需求有所保证，无论是价格还是订单，均优于常规铜箔；此外，5G等高端技术的发展，带动了高频高速等高端铜箔的发展，虽然该市场仍以进口铜箔为主，但国内厂家发展速度快，上半年国产替代化效果明显。终端数据方面，根据统计局数据显示2023年1-5月，我国集成电路产量为1325.2亿块，同比减少4.85%；手机产量为58809.4万台，同比减少3.61%；计算机整机产量为13984万台，同比减少19.47%。</p> <p><img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/07/09/5c3ee8ced20e4d4ba39ddaf1fd159e00.png" alt="" width="554" height="286" /></p> <p style="text-align: right;"><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/07/09/4a87f76de897464cb7b907429bf21868.png" alt="" width="554" height="285" /><span style="font-size: 10pt;">数据来源：统计局、钢联数据</span></p> <p><strong>4、铜箔进出口情况分析</strong></p> <p>2023年1-5月，国内铜箔进口量累计为32211吨，同比减少38.16%。我国铜箔进口持续减少主要原因还是国内电子行业依旧疲软，下游需求恢复一般，叠加大陆铜箔厂商加大高端电解铜箔研发与投产，市场供应增加。除此之外国内铜箔加工费小幅下滑，抓住部分进口铜箔市场，加快了铜箔国产化进程。具体进口数据方面，国内铜箔进口主要集中在东亚地区，进口前五的地区分别为中国台湾、韩国、马来西亚、卢森堡和日本。</p> <p style="text-align: right;"><img src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/07/09/bfcaeced1fb3425c9f2dbac4c2b898b3.png" alt="" width="523" height="295" /><span style="font-size: 10pt;">数据来源：海关总署、钢联数据</span></p> <p>出口方面，根据海关总署数据，2023年1-5月，国内铜箔出口量18151吨，同比增长4.9％。我国铜箔出口小幅增长的主要原因是国内铜箔产能陆续释放，市场供应不断增加，与国内铜箔相比，我国铜箔更具价格优势，同时上半年国内铜箔下游市场放缓，出口也成为了缓解库存增加出货量的又一途径。</p> <p style="text-align: right;"><img src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/07/09/f6fabce12e73438cb7e92de432e2eaab.png" alt="" width="499" height="306" /><span style="font-size: 10pt;">数据来源：海关总署、钢联数据</span></p> <p><strong>5、下半年预测</strong></p> <p><strong>价格端：</strong>下半年，锂电铜箔加工费将持续承压，供应增长速度快于需求增长速度，供过于求的局面使加工费愈发接近成本线，新的铜箔企业通过价格来打开市场，下游电池企业通过新铜箔厂价格来与老铜箔厂进行谈判，加工费在上下游博弈过程中上涨难度不断加大，但这种情况不会持续较长时间，成本端的压力将会迫使铜箔企业不得不涨价，同时市场进一步回暖也能拉动电池企业更多的出货量，电池企业也能够接受铜箔加工费小幅回升。电子电路铜箔在经历较长时间的赔本甩卖后，涨价意愿十分强烈，目前下游覆铜板等产品开始陆续涨价，经过一段时间市场接受后，这种涨价行为也将传导到上游铜箔端，电子电路铜箔加工费将会触底反弹。</p> <p><strong>供应端：</strong>下半年，铜箔供应相比于上半年将明显增多，但过程有所起伏。七八月份能源问题预计会影响部分铜箔企业生产，届时社会供应将有所波动，九月开始随着旺季到来以及原先延期铜箔项目开始投产，铜箔供应将明显增多。行业内部，锂电铜箔增量远高于电子电路铜箔，电子电路铜箔市场回暖还需较长一段时间。</p> <p><strong>需求端：</strong>新能源产业链在经历上半年震荡后下半年将持续向好，市场将稳步增长，动力电池依然是主要需求点，储能电池的拉动效果将显著提升，在新的利好政策推动下，无论是动力还是储能，都将会积极发展。电子行业在经历长时间的疲软之后，短期内会出现价格与订单的博弈，市场或将进入一段时间的震荡，之后需求将会增加，预计四季度市场需求将会出现明显好转。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：俞灿 021-26094021 </br> 资讯监督：卢海丹 021-26093414 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mymetal.net/article/p-6733-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.mymetal.net/article/p-6733-------------1.html" external class="more"> 查看更多<i class="arrow"></i> </a> </div> <div class="list-block recommend-list"> <ul> <li class="item"> <div class="news-title"> <a data-url="m.mysteel.com" href="//m.mysteel.com/23/0709/11/F871953E1643AAF6_abc.html" external> Mysteel半年报：2023下半年国内铜箔消费强弱分化明显加工费持续承压 </a> </div> <div class="news-time">2023-07-09</div> </li> <li class="item"> <div class="news-title"> <a data-url="m.mysteel.com" href="//m.mysteel.com/23/0709/10/DB7C6784ED7ADD1E_abc.html" 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Mysteel半年报：2023下半年国内铜箔消费强弱分化明显 加工费持续承压-我的钢铁网

Mysteel半年报：2023下半年国内铜箔消费强弱分化明显加工费持续承压-我的钢铁网