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From austerity to prosperity: Seven priorities for the long term in the United Kingdom | McKinsey

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mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-9"><span> </span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Kevin Sneader<!-- --> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Charles Roxburgh<!-- --> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/jonathan-dimson" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_2734c4f mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Jonathan Dimson</span></a> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Grey Baker<!-- --> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Karen Croxson<!-- --> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Tim McEvoy<!-- --> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Robert Stillwell<!-- --> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Fraser Thompson<!-- --> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Max Tse<!-- --> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Joycelyn Williams<span>  </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">James Wise</span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">Prospects for economic growth in the United Kingdom are strong, provided that bold action is taken to remove key barriers.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/~/media/mckinsey/featured insights/europe/from austerity to prosperity seven priorities for uk/mgi_uk_from_austerity_to_prosperity_full_report.pdf" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_blank" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="mgi_uk_from_austerity_to_prosperity_full_report" data-layer-report-name="mgi_uk_from_austerity_to_prosperity_full_report&gt;"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (PDF-3 MB)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p>Over the last 15 years the UK’s productivity growth has been encouraging, matching the strong performance of the United States and closing the productivity gap with the EU-15. Overall productivity levels, however, are still nearly 20 percent below the US and 10 percent lower than those of Germany. </p> <p>The UK enjoys relatively high rates of labor participation (nearly five percentage points higher than the OECD average) and relatively low unemployment. But regional imbalances remain a concern—around half of economic growth over the last decade was concentrated in Greater London and its neighboring regions—and too much recent employment growth has been in the public sector (from 1999 to 2009, the public sector workforce grew by 800,000). Moreover, there is a need to build resilience by managing down high public deficits and private debt levels, and taking practical steps to offset the economic effects of our ageing population.</p> <p>Beyond the downturn, MGI identifies seven priority areas that, if tackled, will allow the UK to achieve sustained growth over the next two decades: </p> <ul class="bullListSep"> <li> <h3 class="mck_h3_sm">Focus on raising productivity sector by sector to drive overall growth</h3> Government can lead efforts to improve productivity by working with sector participants and new entrants to remove barriers to growth (such as regulatory burdens, land use restrictions) and support improvements in managerial quality and employee skills.</li> <li> <h3 class="mck_h3_sm">Secure the UK&#x27;s position as the location of choice for multinationals</h3> Multinationals may only account for fewer than two percent of UK businesses. But they drive overall economic growth and large scale innovation, accounting for 80 percent of UK R&amp;D and growing productivity eight times faster than smaller firms. Government should work with leading multinationals on a ten year plan to make the UK the most attractive European location for multinationals, addressing skills, immigration, infrastructure and tax.</li> <li> <h3 class="mck_h3_sm">Unlock infrastructure investment</h3> The UK will need to spend more than £350 billion over the next 20 years merely to maintain its existing transport infrastructure and a further £120 billion – £170 billion to support our energy infrastructure. This level of investment will require greater regulatory certainty and improved economic returns to attract private capital. </li> <li> <h3 class="mck_h3_sm">Innovate at scale</h3> Government efforts to stimulate the growth of clusters have often ended in failure. Achieving success requires concentration of investments in research into large and connected centers, access to global best practice through the recruitment of top talent and cluster-specific support that builds on existing competitive advantages (e.g., in biosciences).</li> <li> <h3 class="mck_h3_sm">Unleash the growth potential of education and health</h3> Policy makers should view these sectors as international growth opportunities rather than public sector cost centers. This will require new and existing universities to add capacity and capability to attract international students. In addition, NHS organisations need to be able to restructure and compete for private patients without restrictions, while additional private capital will be needed to meet rising health care demand in the UK.</li> <li> <h3 class="mck_h3_sm">Pilot devolution to dynamic cities</h3> Cities have been responsible for 78 percent of the UK’s economic growth over the last ten years. Given the urgency of supporting growth across the UK, now is the time to experiment and give cities much greater city-wide coordination roles and financial responsibility, including, for example, the flexibility to negotiate regional as opposed to nationally-agreed public sector pay.</li> <li> <h3 class="mck_h3_sm">Address generational imbalances</h3> Demographic trends pose two challenges for major developed economies such as the UK. The first is how to maintain growth in the face of a declining working population (estimated to be a 0.3 percent annual drag on GDP growth). The second is how to fund long-term health and social care, whose cost is set to rise by more than 70 percent in the next 20 years. The UK needs a radical increase in employment of older workers, leveraging the practices of innovative firms and ensuring these are spread more widely. Unlocking the £1 trillion of unmortgaged housing wealth owned by those over 60 through equity release would also enable older generations to make a to make a greater contribution to paying for the public services they need. </li> </ul></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div></main></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="StandalonePromo" class="RelatedArticle_mck-c-article-related__GGA76 mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="related-articles"><div class="mdc-o-container__wrapper is-wrapped mdc-u-spaced-mobile"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Related Articles</h5><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-3 RelatedArticle_items-container__s2uD0"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg Card_card__diA2r Card_hover-effect__RGb9b"><div class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/featured-insights/asia-pacific/australia-productivity-imperative" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-beyon-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="bebo12_frth" class="picture-uniqueKey-beyon-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/asia%20pacific/australia%20productivity%20imperative/bebo12_frth.jpg?cq=50&amp;mw=767&amp;car=16:9&amp;cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Report - 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Overall productivity levels, however, are still nearly 20 percent below the US and 10 percent lower than those of Germany. \u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eThe UK enjoys relatively high rates of labor participation (nearly five percentage points higher than the OECD average) and relatively low unemployment. But regional imbalances remain a concern\u0026mdash;around half of economic growth over the last decade was concentrated in Greater London and its neighboring regions\u0026mdash;and too much recent employment growth has been in the public sector (from 1999 to 2009, the public sector workforce grew by 800,000). Moreover, there is a need to build resilience by managing down high public deficits and private debt levels, and taking practical steps to offset the economic effects of our ageing population.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eBeyond the downturn, MGI identifies seven priority areas that, if tackled, will allow the UK to achieve sustained growth over the next two decades: \u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cul class=\"bullListSep\"\u003e\r\n \u003cli\u003e\r\n \u003ch3 class=\"mck_h3_sm\"\u003eFocus on raising productivity sector by sector to drive overall growth\u003c/h2\u003e\r\n Government can lead efforts to improve productivity by working with sector participants and new entrants to remove barriers to growth (such as regulatory burdens, land use restrictions) and support improvements in managerial quality and employee skills.\u003c/li\u003e\r\n \u003cli\u003e\r\n \u003ch3 class=\"mck_h3_sm\"\u003eSecure the UK's position as the location of choice for multinationals\u003c/h2\u003e\r\n Multinationals may only account for fewer than two percent of UK businesses. But they drive overall economic growth and large scale innovation, accounting for 80 percent of UK R\u0026amp;D and growing productivity eight times faster than smaller firms. Government should work with leading multinationals on a ten year plan to make the UK the most attractive European location for multinationals, addressing skills, immigration, infrastructure and tax.\u003c/li\u003e\r\n \u003cli\u003e\r\n \u003ch3 class=\"mck_h3_sm\"\u003eUnlock infrastructure investment\u003c/h2\u003e\r\n The UK will need to spend more than \u0026pound;350 billion over the next 20 years merely to maintain its existing transport infrastructure and a further \u0026pound;120 billion \u0026ndash; \u0026pound;170 billion to support our energy infrastructure. This level of investment will require greater regulatory certainty and improved economic returns to attract private capital. \u003c/li\u003e\r\n \u003cli\u003e\r\n \u003ch3 class=\"mck_h3_sm\"\u003eInnovate at scale\u003c/h2\u003e\r\n Government efforts to stimulate the growth of clusters have often ended in failure. Achieving success requires concentration of investments in research into large and connected centers, access to global best practice through the recruitment of top talent and cluster-specific support that builds on existing competitive advantages (e.g., in biosciences).\u003c/li\u003e\r\n \u003cli\u003e\r\n \u003ch3 class=\"mck_h3_sm\"\u003eUnleash the growth potential of education and health\u003c/h2\u003e\r\n Policy makers should view these sectors as international growth opportunities rather than public sector cost centers. This will require new and existing universities to add capacity and capability to attract international students. In addition, NHS organisations need to be able to restructure and compete for private patients without restrictions, while additional private capital will be needed to meet rising health care demand in the UK.\u003c/li\u003e\r\n \u003cli\u003e\r\n \u003ch3 class=\"mck_h3_sm\"\u003ePilot devolution to dynamic cities\u003c/h2\u003e\r\n Cities have been responsible for 78 percent of the UK\u0026rsquo;s economic growth over the last ten years. Given the urgency of supporting growth across the UK, now is the time to experiment and give cities much greater city-wide coordination roles and financial responsibility, including, for example, the flexibility to negotiate regional as opposed to nationally-agreed public sector pay.\u003c/li\u003e\r\n \u003cli\u003e\r\n \u003ch3 class=\"mck_h3_sm\"\u003eAddress generational imbalances\u003c/h2\u003e\r\n Demographic trends pose two challenges for major developed economies such as the UK. The first is how to maintain growth in the face of a declining working population (estimated to be a 0.3 percent annual drag on GDP growth). The second is how to fund long-term health and social care, whose cost is set to rise by more than 70 percent in the next 20 years. The UK needs a radical increase in employment of older workers, leveraging the practices of innovative firms and ensuring these are spread more widely. Unlocking the \u0026pound;1 trillion of unmortgaged housing wealth owned by those over 60 through equity release would also enable older generations to make a to make a greater contribution to paying for the public services they need. \u003c/li\u003e\r\n\u003c/ul\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"AllUsers"},"value":{"value":"All 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