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Tools</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-62"><a href="https://steveblank.com/secret-history/">Secret History</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-68"><a href="https://steveblank.com/books-for-startups/">Books for Startups</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-11025"><a href="https://steveblank.com/slides/">Slides/Videos</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-25609"><a href="https://steveblank.com/raising-money/">Raising Money</a></li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div>  <div class="narrowcolumnwrapper"><div class="narrowcolumn"> <div id="content" class="content"> <div class="post-31481 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-air-force category-gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation category-hacking-for-defense category-national-security category-navy" id="post-31481"> <h2><a href="https://steveblank.com/2024/09/17/the-directory-of-dod-program-executive-offices-and-officers-peos/" rel="bookmark">How To Find Your Customer In the Dept of Defense – The Directory of DoD Program Executive Offices</a></h2> <div class="postinfo"> Posted on <span class="postdate">September 17, 2024</span> by steve blank </div> <div class="entry"> <p>Finding a customer for your product in the Department of Defense is hard: Who should you talk to? How do you get their attention?</p> <div id="attachment_31539" style="width: 217px" class="wp-caption alignright"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/BUDs-training-team.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-31539" data-attachment-id="31539" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/09/17/the-directory-of-dod-program-executive-offices-and-officers-peos/buds-training-team/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/BUDs-training-team.jpg?fit=2669%2C1683&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2669,1683" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="<p>Looking for customers in the DoD</p> " data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/BUDs-training-team.jpg?fit=300%2C189&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/BUDs-training-team.jpg?fit=468%2C295&ssl=1" class="wp-image-31539 " src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/BUDs-training-team.jpg?resize=207%2C130&ssl=1" alt="" width="207" height="130" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/BUDs-training-team.jpg?resize=300%2C189&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/BUDs-training-team.jpg?resize=1024%2C646&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/BUDs-training-team.jpg?resize=150%2C95&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/BUDs-training-team.jpg?resize=768%2C484&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/BUDs-training-team.jpg?resize=1536%2C969&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/BUDs-training-team.jpg?resize=2048%2C1291&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/BUDs-training-team.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/BUDs-training-team.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="(max-width: 207px) 100vw, 207px" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-31539" class="wp-caption-text">Looking for DoD customers</p></div> <p>How do you know if they have money to spend on your product?</p> <p>It almost always starts with a Program Executive Office.</p> <hr /> <p>The Department of Defense (DoD) no longer owns all the technologies, products and services to deter or win a war – e.g. AI, autonomy, drones, biotech, access to space, cyber, semiconductors, new materials, etc.</p> <p>Today, a new class of startups are attempting to sell these products to the Defense Department. Amazingly, there is no single DoD-wide phone book available to startups of who to call in the Defense Department.</p> <p>So I wrote one.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Think of the <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eOZzQ-elodazM8kG8cXA5mgx21R4WUg9/view?usp=share_link" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PEO Directory</a> linked below as a “Who buys in the government?” phone book.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The DoD buys hundreds of billions of dollars of products and services per year, and nearly all of these purchases are managed by Program Executive Offices. A Program Executive Office may be responsible for a specific program (e.g., the Joint Strike Fighter) or for an entire portfolio of similar programs (e.g., the Navy Program Executive Office for Digital and Enterprise Services). PEOs define requirements and their Contracting Officers buy things (handling the formal purchasing, issuing requests for proposals (RFPs), and signing contracts with vendors.) Program Managers (PMs) work with the PEO and manage subsets of the larger program.</p> <p>Existing defense contractors know who these organizations are and have teams of people tracking budgets and contracts. But startups? Most startups don’t have a clue where to start.</p> <p>This is a classic case of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_asymmetry" target="_blank" rel="noopener">information asymmetry</a> and it’s not healthy for the Department of Defense or the nascent startup defense ecosystem.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">That’s why I put this <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eOZzQ-elodazM8kG8cXA5mgx21R4WUg9/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PEO Directory</a> together.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">This first version of the directory lists 75 Program Executive Offices and their Program Executive Officers and Program/Project Managers.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Each Program Executive <em>Office</em> is headed by a Program Executive <em>Officer</em> who is a high ranking official – either a member of the military or a high ranking civilian – responsible for the cost, schedule, and performance of a major system, or portfolio of systems, some worth billions of dollars.</p> <p>Below is a summary of 75 Program Executive Offices in the Department of Defense.</p> <p>You can download the full 64-page document of Program Executive Offices and Officers with all 602 names <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eOZzQ-elodazM8kG8cXA5mgx21R4WUg9/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p> <p><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eOZzQ-elodazM8kG8cXA5mgx21R4WUg9/view?usp=sharing"><img data-recalc-dims="1" fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31488" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/09/17/the-directory-of-dod-program-executive-offices-and-officers-peos/directory-of-dod-peos-v0-8-page-1/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-1.png?fit=2550%2C2684&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2550,2684" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Directory of DoD PEOs v0.8 page 1" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-1.png?fit=285%2C300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-1.png?fit=468%2C493&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31488 size-large" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-1.png?resize=468%2C493&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="493" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-1.png?resize=973%2C1024&ssl=1 973w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-1.png?resize=285%2C300&ssl=1 285w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-1.png?resize=143%2C150&ssl=1 143w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-1.png?resize=768%2C808&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-1.png?resize=1459%2C1536&ssl=1 1459w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-1.png?resize=1946%2C2048&ssl=1 1946w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-1.png?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="(max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eOZzQ-elodazM8kG8cXA5mgx21R4WUg9/view?usp=sharing"><img data-recalc-dims="1" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31489" 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src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-2.png?resize=468%2C499&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="499" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-2.png?resize=960%2C1024&ssl=1 960w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-2.png?resize=281%2C300&ssl=1 281w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-2.png?resize=141%2C150&ssl=1 141w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-2.png?resize=768%2C819&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-2.png?resize=1440%2C1536&ssl=1 1440w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-2.png?resize=1921%2C2048&ssl=1 1921w" sizes="(max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eOZzQ-elodazM8kG8cXA5mgx21R4WUg9/view?usp=sharing"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31490" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/09/17/the-directory-of-dod-program-executive-offices-and-officers-peos/directory-of-dod-peos-v0-8-page-3/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-3.png?fit=2537%2C901&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2537,901" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Directory of DoD PEOs v0.8 page 3" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-3.png?fit=300%2C107&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-3.png?fit=468%2C166&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31490 size-large" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-3.png?resize=468%2C166&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="166" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-3.png?resize=1024%2C364&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-3.png?resize=300%2C107&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-3.png?resize=150%2C53&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-3.png?resize=768%2C273&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-3.png?resize=1536%2C546&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-3.png?resize=2048%2C727&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-3.png?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Directory-of-DoD-PEOs-v0.8-page-3.png?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a><strong>Caveats<br /> </strong>Do not depend on this document for accuracy or completeness.<br /> It is likely incomplete and contains errors.<br /> Military officers typically change jobs every few years.<br /> Program Offices get closed and new ones opened as needed.</p> <p>This means this document was out of date the day it was written. Still it represents an invaluable starting point for startups looking to work with DoD.</p> <p><strong>How to Use The PEO Directory As Part of A Go-To-Market Strategy<br /> </strong>While it’s helpful to know what Program Executive Offices exist and who staffs them, it’s even better to know where the money is, what it’s being spent on, and whether the budget is increasing, decreasing, or remaining the same.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The best place to start is by looking through an overview of the entire defense budget <a href="https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2025/FY2025_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. Then search for those programs in the linked PEO Directory. You can get an idea whether that program has $ Billions, or $ Millions.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Next, take a look at the <a href="https://comptroller.defense.gov/Budget-Materials/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">budget documents</a> released by the DoD Comptroller –<br /> particularly the <a href="https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2025/FY2025_p1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">P-1 (Procurement</a>) and R-1 (<a href="https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2025/FY2025_r1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">R&D</a>) budget documents.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Combining <a href="https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2025/FY2025_p1.pdf">the budget document</a> with this PEO directory helps you narrow down which of the 75 Program Executive Offices and 500+ program managers to call on.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">With some practice you can translate the topline, account, or Program Element (PE) Line changes into a sales Go-To-Market strategy, or at least a hypothesis of who to call on.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Armed with the program description (it’s full of jargon and 9-12 months out of date) and the Excel download <a href="https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2025/p1.xlsx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and the Appendix <a href="https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2025/p1_display.xlsx">here</a> –– you can identify targets for sales calls with DoD where your product has the best chance of fitting in.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The people and organizations in this list change more frequently than the money.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Knowing the people is helpful only after you understand their priorities — and money is the best proxy for that.</p> <p><strong>Future Work<br /> </strong>Ultimately we want to give startups not only who to call on, and who has the money, but which Program Offices are receptive to new entrants. And which have converted to portfolio management, which have tried OTA contracts, as well as highlighting those who are doing something novel with metrics or outcomes.</p> <p>Going forward this project will be kept updated by the <a href="https://gordianknot.stanford.edu">Stanford Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation</a>.</p> <p>In the meantime send updates, corrections and comments to sblank@stanford.edu</p> <p><strong>Credit Where Credit Is Due<br /> </strong>Clearly, the U.S. government intends to communicate this information. They have published links to DoD organizations <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Resources/Military-Departments/A-Z-List/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>, even <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Resources/Military-Departments/A-Z-List/?tab=Social%20Media" target="_blank" rel="noopener">listing DoD social media accounts</a>. But the list is fragmented and irregularly updated. 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data-name='like-post-frame-6599589-31481-67b34bc382810' data-title='Like or Reblog'><h3 class="sd-title">Like this:</h3><div class='likes-widget-placeholder post-likes-widget-placeholder' style='height: 55px;'><span class='button'><span>Like</span></span> <span class="loading">Loading...</span></div><span class='sd-text-color'></span><a class='sd-link-color'></a></div> <p class="postinfo"> Filed under: <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/air-force/" rel="category tag">Air Force</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation/" rel="category tag">Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/hacking-for-defense/" rel="category tag">Hacking For Defense</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/national-security/" rel="category tag">National Security</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/navy/" rel="category tag">Navy</a> | <a href="https://steveblank.com/2024/09/17/the-directory-of-dod-program-executive-offices-and-officers-peos/#comments">2 Comments »</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="post-31004 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-corporate-govt-innovation category-gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation category-hacking-for-defense" id="post-31004"> <h2><a href="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/" rel="bookmark">Hacking for Defense @ Stanford 2024 – Lessons Learned Presentations</a></h2> <div class="postinfo"> Posted on <span class="postdate">June 24, 2024</span> by steve blank </div> <div class="entry"> <p style="font-weight: 400;">We just finished our 9th annual <a href="http://h4d.stanford.edu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hacking for Defense class at Stanford.</a><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/h4d-logo.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="27586" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/h4d-logo/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/h4d-logo.jpg?fit=2432%2C2400&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2432,2400" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="h4d logo" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/h4d-logo.jpg?fit=300%2C296&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/h4d-logo.jpg?fit=468%2C462&ssl=1" class="alignright size-thumbnail wp-image-27586" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/h4d-logo.jpg?resize=150%2C148&ssl=1" alt="" width="150" height="148" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/h4d-logo.jpg?resize=150%2C148&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/h4d-logo.jpg?resize=300%2C296&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/h4d-logo.jpg?resize=1024%2C1011&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/h4d-logo.jpg?resize=768%2C758&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/h4d-logo.jpg?resize=1536%2C1516&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/h4d-logo.jpg?resize=2048%2C2021&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/h4d-logo.jpg?resize=1200%2C1184&ssl=1 1200w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/h4d-logo.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/h4d-logo.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">What a year.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Hacking for Defense, now in 60 universities, has teams of students working to understand and help solve national security problems. At Stanford this quarter the 8 teams of 40 students collectively interviewed <strong>968</strong> beneficiaries, stakeholders, requirements writers, program managers, industry partners, etc. – while simultaneously building a series of minimal viable products and developing a path to deployment.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">At the end of the quarter, each of the teams gave a final “Lessons Learned” presentation. Unlike traditional demo days or Shark Tanks which are, “Here’s how smart I am, and isn’t this a great product, please give me money,” the Lessons Learned presentations tell the story of each team’s 10-week journey and hard-won learning and discovery. For all of them it’s a roller coaster narrative describing what happens when you discover that everything you thought you knew on day one was wrong and how they eventually got it right.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Here’s how they did it and what they delivered.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>New for 2024<br /> </strong>This year, in addition to the problems from the Defense Department and Intelligence Community we had two problems from the State Department and one from the FBI.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>These are “Wicked” Problems<br /> </strong>Wicked problems refer to really complex problems, ones with multiple moving parts, where the solution isn’t obvious and lacks a definitive formula. The types of problems our Hacking For Defense students work on fall into this category. They are often ambiguous. They start with a problem from a sponsor, and not only is the solution unclear but figuring out how to acquire and deploy it is also complex. Most often students find that in hindsight the problem was a symptom of a more interesting and complex problem – and that Acquistion of solutions in the Dept of Defense is unlike anything in the commercial world.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-Matrix.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31009" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/h4d-matrix/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-Matrix.jpg?fit=612%2C516&ssl=1" data-orig-size="612,516" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="H4D Matrix" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-Matrix.jpg?fit=300%2C253&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-Matrix.jpg?fit=468%2C395&ssl=1" class="alignright wp-image-31009" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-Matrix.jpg?resize=228%2C192&ssl=1" alt="" width="228" height="192" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-Matrix.jpg?resize=300%2C253&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-Matrix.jpg?resize=150%2C126&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-Matrix.jpg?w=612&ssl=1 612w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 228px) 100vw, 228px" /></a>And the stakeholders and institutions often have different relationships with each other – some are collaborative, some have pieces of the problem or solution, and others might have conflicting values and interests.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The figure shows the types of problems Hacking for Defense students encounter, with the most common ones shaded.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Guest Speakers: Doug Beck – Defense Innovation Unit, Radha Plumb – CDAO. H.R. McMaster – former National Security Advisor and Condoleezza Rice – former Secretary of State<br /> </strong>Our final Lessons Learned presentations started with an introduction by <a href="https://www.diu.mil/team/doug-beck" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Doug Beck</a>, director of the <a href="https://www.diu.mil" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Defense Innovation Unit</a> and <a href="https://www.ai.mil/bio_Plumb.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Radha Plumb</a>, DoD’s <a href="https://www.ai.mil/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chief of the Digital and AI Office</a>– reminding the students of the importance of Hacking for Defense and congratulating them on their contribution to national security.</p> <p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._R._McMaster" target="_blank" rel="noopener">H.R. McMaster</a> gave an inspiring talk. He reminded our students that 1) war is an extension of politics; 2) war is human; 3) war is uncertain; 4) war is a contest of wills.<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1E4Qhmn_HlWBsThiC7sjTRNThxLBwqcbL/view?usp=sharing"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31055" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/h-r-mcmaster-h4d2024/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H.R.-Mcmaster-H4D2024.jpg?fit=768%2C1024&ssl=1" data-orig-size="768,1024" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"1.78","credit":"","camera":"iPhone 15 Pro","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1717523242","copyright":"","focal_length":"6.7649998656528","iso":"200","shutter_speed":"0.0086206896551724","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="H.R. Mcmaster H4D2024" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H.R.-Mcmaster-H4D2024.jpg?fit=225%2C300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H.R.-Mcmaster-H4D2024.jpg?fit=468%2C624&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31055 size-medium" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H.R.-Mcmaster-H4D2024.jpg?resize=225%2C300&ssl=1" alt="" width="225" height="300" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H.R.-Mcmaster-H4D2024.jpg?resize=225%2C300&ssl=1 225w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H.R.-Mcmaster-H4D2024.jpg?resize=113%2C150&ssl=1 113w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H.R.-Mcmaster-H4D2024.jpg?w=768&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 225px) 100vw, 225px" /></a></p> <p>If you can’t see the video of H.R. McMaster’s talk, click <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1E4Qhmn_HlWBsThiC7sjTRNThxLBwqcbL/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p> <p>The week prior to our final presentations the class heard inspirational remarks from Dr. <a href="https://www.hoover.org/profiles/condoleezza-rice" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Condoleezza Rice,</a> former United States Secretary of State. Dr. Rice gave a sweeping overview of the prevailing threats to our national security and the importance of getting our best and brightest involved in public service.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">As a former Secretary of State, Dr. Rice was especially encouraged to see our two State Department sponsored teams this quarter. She left the students inspired to find ways to serve.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Lessons Learned Presentation Format<br /> </strong>For the final Lessons Learned presentation many of the eight teams presented a 2-minute video to provide context about their problem. This was followed by an 8-minute slide presentation describing their customer discovery journey over the 10 weeks. While all the teams used the <a href="https://steveblank.com/2016/02/23/the-mission-model-canvas-an-adapted-business-model-canvas-for-mission-driven-organizations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mission Model Canvas</a>, (videos <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLmera8mXqq-tOMvCpj_M64F-dbXvxkArs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>), Customer Development and Agile Engineering to build Minimal Viable Products, each of their journeys was unique.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Getting-out-of-the-building.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31057" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/getting-out-of-the-building-3/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Getting-out-of-the-building.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1024,768" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"1.78","credit":"","camera":"iPhone 15 Pro","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1717526936","copyright":"","focal_length":"6.7649998656528","iso":"200","shutter_speed":"0.012987012987013","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Getting out of the building" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Getting-out-of-the-building.jpg?fit=300%2C225&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Getting-out-of-the-building.jpg?fit=468%2C351&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31057" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Getting-out-of-the-building.jpg?resize=468%2C351&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="351" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Getting-out-of-the-building.jpg?resize=300%2C225&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Getting-out-of-the-building.jpg?resize=150%2C113&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Getting-out-of-the-building.jpg?resize=768%2C576&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Getting-out-of-the-building.jpg?w=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Getting-out-of-the-building.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">By the end the class all the teams realized that the problem as given by the sponsor had morphed into something bigger, deeper and much more interesting.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">All the presentations are worth a watch.</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team House of Laws<br /> </strong><strong><em>Using LLMs to Simplify Government Decision Making</em></strong></h3> <p><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dgbZvQBbI3U6LNR6yaY15lCUU3AiLCd8/view"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31010" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/screenshot-3/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws.jpg?fit=2848%2C1700&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2848,1700" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"Screenshot","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"Screenshot","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Screenshot" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="<p>Screenshot</p> " data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws.jpg?fit=300%2C179&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws.jpg?fit=468%2C279&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31010 size-large" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws.jpg?resize=468%2C279&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="279" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws.jpg?resize=1024%2C611&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws.jpg?resize=300%2C179&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws.jpg?resize=150%2C90&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws.jpg?resize=768%2C458&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws.jpg?resize=1536%2C917&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws.jpg?resize=2048%2C1222&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the Team House of Laws 2-minute video, click <u><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dgbZvQBbI3U6LNR6yaY15lCUU3AiLCd8/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a></u></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y6kOLGscnC7iSNNS4HGv8uh3tvABf7dB/view?usp=sharing"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31012" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/house-of-laws-final-presentation/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws-Final-Presentation.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="House of Laws Final Presentation" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws-Final-Presentation.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws-Final-Presentation.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31012 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws-Final-Presentation.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws-Final-Presentation.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws-Final-Presentation.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/House-of-Laws-Final-Presentation.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>If you can’t see the Team House of Laws slides, click <u><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y6kOLGscnC7iSNNS4HGv8uh3tvABf7dB/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a></u></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Mission-Driven Entrepreneurship</strong><br /> This class is part of a bigger idea – Mission-Driven Entrepreneurship. Instead of students or faculty coming in with their own ideas, we ask them to work on societal problems, whether they’re problems for the State Department or the Department of Defense or non-profits/NGOs or the Oceans and Climate or for anything the students are passionate about. The trick is we use the same <a href="https://steveblank.com/2021/07/13/this-class-changed-the-way-entrepreneurship-is-taught/#:~:text=There%20were%20no%20classes%20on,Enterprises”%20at%20Harvard%20Business%20School." target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lean LaunchPad / I-Corps curriculum — and the same class structure – experiential, hands-on</a>– driven this time by a <a href="https://steveblank.com/2016/02/23/the-mission-model-canvas-an-adapted-business-model-canvas-for-mission-driven-organizations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>mission</em>-model</a> not a business model. (The National Science Foundation and the <a href="https://www.commonmission.us/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Common Mission Project</a> have helped promote the expansion of the methodology worldwide.)</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Mission-driven entrepreneurship is the answer to students who say, “I want to give back. I want to make my community, country or world a better place, while being challenged to solve some of the toughest problems.”</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Caribbean Clean Climate<br /> </strong><strong><em>Helping</em> <em>Barbados Adopt Clean Energy</em></strong></h3> <p><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-DFizYfv0EbKIvmf0gx5kCxoUhBBax-i/view?usp=sharing"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31019" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/screenshot-5/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/C3-Video-title.jpg?fit=2848%2C1700&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2848,1700" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"Screenshot","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"Screenshot","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Screenshot" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="<p>Screenshot</p> " data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/C3-Video-title.jpg?fit=300%2C179&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/C3-Video-title.jpg?fit=468%2C279&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31019 size-large" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/C3-Video-title.jpg?resize=468%2C279&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="279" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/C3-Video-title.jpg?resize=1024%2C611&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/C3-Video-title.jpg?resize=300%2C179&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/C3-Video-title.jpg?resize=150%2C90&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/C3-Video-title.jpg?resize=768%2C458&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/C3-Video-title.jpg?resize=1536%2C917&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/C3-Video-title.jpg?resize=2048%2C1222&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/C3-Video-title.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/C3-Video-title.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the Caribbean Clean Climate 2-minute video, click <u><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-DFizYfv0EbKIvmf0gx5kCxoUhBBax-i/view?usp=sharing">here</a></u></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lkmdLfL3EKRlRqAN7bqFjnXsgh7At8PL/view?usp=sharing"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31024" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/caribbeans-clean-climate-final-presentation/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Caribbeans-Clean-Climate-Final-Presentation.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Caribbean’s Clean Climate – Final Presentation" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Caribbeans-Clean-Climate-Final-Presentation.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Caribbeans-Clean-Climate-Final-Presentation.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31024 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Caribbeans-Clean-Climate-Final-Presentation.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Caribbeans-Clean-Climate-Final-Presentation.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Caribbeans-Clean-Climate-Final-Presentation.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Caribbeans-Clean-Climate-Final-Presentation.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>If you can’t see the Caribbean Clean Climate slides, click <u><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lkmdLfL3EKRlRqAN7bqFjnXsgh7At8PL/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a></u></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>It Started With An Idea<br /> </strong>Hacking for Defense has its origins in the Lean LaunchPad class I first taught at Stanford in 2011. I observed that teaching case studies and/or how to write a business plan as a capstone entrepreneurship class didn’t match the hands-on chaos of a startup. Furthermore, there was no entrepreneurship class that combined experiential learning with the Lean methodology. Our goal was to teach both theory and practice.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The same year we started the class, it was adopted by the National Science Foundation to train Principal Investigators who wanted to get a federal grant for commercializing their science (an <a href="https://www.sbir.gov/about" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SBIR grant</a>.) The NSF observed, “The class is the scientific method for entrepreneurship. Scientists understand hypothesis testing” and relabeled the class as the <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/i-corps/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NSF I-Corps</a> (Innovation Corps). I-Corps became the standard for science commercialization for the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Blank#cite_note-5">National Science Foundation</a>, National Institutes of Health and the Department of Energy, to date training 3,051 teams and launching 1,300+ startups.</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team Protecting Children<br /> </strong><strong><em>Helping the FBI Acquire LLMs for Child Safety</em></strong></h3> <p><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zz3Yv8I3zeu9THm6HQOgsVFWw8Ucl1Df/view"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31026" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/screenshot-6/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/AI-Protecting-Chiildren.jpg?fit=2680%2C1860&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2680,1860" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"Screenshot","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"Screenshot","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Screenshot" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="<p>Screenshot</p> " data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/AI-Protecting-Chiildren.jpg?fit=300%2C208&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/AI-Protecting-Chiildren.jpg?fit=468%2C325&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31026 size-large" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/AI-Protecting-Chiildren.jpg?resize=468%2C325&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="325" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/AI-Protecting-Chiildren.jpg?resize=1024%2C711&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/AI-Protecting-Chiildren.jpg?resize=300%2C208&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/AI-Protecting-Chiildren.jpg?resize=150%2C104&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/AI-Protecting-Chiildren.jpg?resize=768%2C533&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/AI-Protecting-Chiildren.jpg?resize=1536%2C1066&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/AI-Protecting-Chiildren.jpg?resize=2048%2C1421&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/AI-Protecting-Chiildren.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/AI-Protecting-Chiildren.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the Team Protecting Children<strong> </strong> 2-minute video, click <u><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zz3Yv8I3zeu9THm6HQOgsVFWw8Ucl1Df/view?usp=sharing">here</a></u></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tcoACe4PycyKgu1JqsmQSB6WsTISfbtO/view?usp=sharing"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31027" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/child-safety-final-presentation/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Child-Safety-Final-Presentation.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Child Safety Final Presentation" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Child-Safety-Final-Presentation.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Child-Safety-Final-Presentation.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31027 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Child-Safety-Final-Presentation.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Child-Safety-Final-Presentation.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Child-Safety-Final-Presentation.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Child-Safety-Final-Presentation.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>If you can’t see the Team Protecting Children<strong> </strong> slides, click <u><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tcoACe4PycyKgu1JqsmQSB6WsTISfbtO/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a></u></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Origins Of Hacking For Defense<br /> </strong>In 2016, brainstorming with <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/petenewell" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pete Newell</a> of BMNT and <a href="http://fsi.stanford.edu/people/joseph_felter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joe Felter</a> at Stanford, we observed that students in our research universities had little connection to the problems their government was trying to solve or the larger issues civil society was grappling with. As we thought about how we could get students engaged, we realized the same Lean LaunchPad/I-Corps class would provide a framework to do so. That year we launched both <a href="http://h4d.stanford.edu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hacking for Defense</a> and <a href="http://web.stanford.edu/class/msande298/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hacking for Diplomacy</a> (with Professor <a href="https://politicalscience.stanford.edu/people/jeremy-weinstein">Jeremy Weinstein</a> and the State Department) at Stanford. The Department of Defense adopted and scaled Hacking for Defense across 60 universities while Hacking for Diplomacy is offered at<span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"> </span> <a href="https://www.jmu.edu/news/2024/03/01-diplomatic-community.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JMU</a> and <a href="https://www.commonmission.us/thought-leadership/rit-students-propose-solution-for-more-efficient-dos-data-analysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RIT</a> –, sponsored by the Department of State Bureau of Diplomatic Security (see <a href="https://www.h4diplomacy.us/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>).</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team L Infinity<br /> </strong><strong><em>Improving Satellite Tasking</em></strong></h3> <p><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1abzKDhqURLlZOM0_coEX6CsKxAK7UNWI/view"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31029" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/screenshot-7/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity.jpg?fit=2784%2C1664&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2784,1664" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"Screenshot","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"Screenshot","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Screenshot" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="<p>Screenshot</p> " data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity.jpg?fit=300%2C179&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity.jpg?fit=468%2C280&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31029 size-large" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity.jpg?resize=468%2C280&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="280" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity.jpg?resize=1024%2C612&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity.jpg?resize=300%2C179&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity.jpg?resize=150%2C90&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity.jpg?resize=768%2C459&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity.jpg?resize=1536%2C918&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity.jpg?resize=2048%2C1224&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the Team L∞ 2-minute video, click <u><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1abzKDhqURLlZOM0_coEX6CsKxAK7UNWI/view?usp=sharing">here</a></u></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/16Jeh-YyPwsAx2YHe7JGD-y0AO0QGJlIk/view?usp=sharing"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31030" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/l-infinity-final-presentation/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity-Final-Presentation.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="L Infinity Final Presentation" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity-Final-Presentation.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity-Final-Presentation.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31030 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity-Final-Presentation.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity-Final-Presentation.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity-Final-Presentation.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/L-Infinity-Final-Presentation.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>If you can’t see the Team L∞ slides, click <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/16Jeh-YyPwsAx2YHe7JGD-y0AO0QGJlIk/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Goals for the Hacking for Defense Class<br /> </strong>Our primary goal was to teach students Lean Innovation methods while they engaged in national public service. Today if college students want to give back to their country, they think of <a href="https://www.teachforamerica.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Teach for America</a>, the <a href="http://www.peacecorps.gov/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Peace Corps</a>, or <a href="https://americorps.gov" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AmeriCorps</a> or perhaps the <a href="https://www.usds.gov" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US Digital Service</a> or the <a href="https://18f.gsa.gov/">GSA’s 18F</a>. Few consider opportunities to make the world safer with the Department of Defense, Intelligence community or other government agencies.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">In the class we saw that students could learn about the nation’s threats and security challenges while working with innovators inside the DoD and Intelligence Community. At the same time the experience would introduce to the sponsors, who are innovators inside the Department of Defense (DOD) and Intelligence Community (IC), a methodology that could help them understand and better respond to rapidly evolving threats. We wanted to show that if we could get teams to <em>rapidly</em> discover the real problems in the field using Lean methods, and <em>only then</em> articulate the requirements to solve them, defense acquisition programs could operate at <em>speed and urgency</em> and deliver <em>timely</em> <em>and needed </em>solutions.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Finally, we wanted to familiarize students with the military as a profession and help them better understand its expertise, and its proper role in society. We hoped it would also show our sponsors in the Department of Defense and Intelligence community that civilian students can make a meaningful contribution to problem understanding and rapid prototyping of solutions to real-world problems.</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team Centiment<br /> </strong><strong><em>Information Operations Optimized</em></strong></h3> <p><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1el02GK0fmI2s1gFSJetJ84jym4b95TCd/view"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31034" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/screenshot-8/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Centiment.jpg?fit=876%2C930&ssl=1" data-orig-size="876,930" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"Screenshot","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"Screenshot","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Screenshot" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="<p>Screenshot</p> " data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Centiment.jpg?fit=283%2C300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Centiment.jpg?fit=468%2C497&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31034" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Centiment.jpg?resize=351%2C372&ssl=1" alt="" width="351" height="372" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Centiment.jpg?w=876&ssl=1 876w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Centiment.jpg?resize=283%2C300&ssl=1 283w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Centiment.jpg?resize=141%2C150&ssl=1 141w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Centiment.jpg?resize=768%2C815&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 351px) 100vw, 351px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the Team Centiment 2-minute video, click <u><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1el02GK0fmI2s1gFSJetJ84jym4b95TCd/view?usp=share_link">here</a></u></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/13e7cdCbshwj4EZbzWmMjsBatES-yhOle/view?usp=sharing"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31032" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/centiment_-final-presentation-deck/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CENTIMENT_-Final-Presentation-Deck.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="CENTIMENT_ Final Presentation Deck" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CENTIMENT_-Final-Presentation-Deck.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CENTIMENT_-Final-Presentation-Deck.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31032 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CENTIMENT_-Final-Presentation-Deck.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CENTIMENT_-Final-Presentation-Deck.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CENTIMENT_-Final-Presentation-Deck.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CENTIMENT_-Final-Presentation-Deck.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>If you can’t see the Team Centiment slides, click <u><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/13e7cdCbshwj4EZbzWmMjsBatES-yhOle/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a></u></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Mission-Driven in 50 Universities and Continuing to Expand in Scope and Reach<br /> </strong>What started as a class is now a movement.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">From its beginning with our Stanford class, Hacking for Defense is now offered in over 50 universities in the U.S., as well as in the UK and Australia. Steve Weinstein started <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/view-from-the-valley/at-work/education/first-hacking-for-impact-class-buzzes-around-the-mosquito-problem">Hacking for Impact</a> (Non-Profits) and <a href="https://hackingforlocal-oakland.weebly.com/">Hacking for Local</a> (Oakland) at U.C. Berkeley, and Hacking for Oceans at both <a href="http://h4oceans.ucsd.edu/">Scripps</a> and <a href="https://hacking4oceans.ucsc.edu/">UC Santa Cruz,</a> as well as <a href="https://h4cs.stanford.edu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hacking for Climate and Sustainability</a> at Stanford. Hacking for Education will start this fall at Stanford.</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team Guyana’s Green Growth<br /> <em>Water Management for Guyanese Farmers</em></strong></h3> <div id="attachment_31036" style="width: 478px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6FRQiCATeQ&t=4s"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-31036" data-attachment-id="31036" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/screenshot-9/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-title.jpg?fit=2624%2C1640&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2624,1640" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"Screenshot","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"Screenshot","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Screenshot" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="<p>Screenshot</p> " data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-title.jpg?fit=300%2C188&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-title.jpg?fit=468%2C293&ssl=1" class="wp-image-31036 size-large" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-title.jpg?resize=468%2C293&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="293" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-title.jpg?resize=1024%2C640&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-title.jpg?resize=300%2C188&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-title.jpg?resize=150%2C94&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-title.jpg?resize=768%2C480&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-title.jpg?resize=1536%2C960&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-title.jpg?resize=2048%2C1280&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-title.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-title.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-31036" class="wp-caption-text">Screenshot</p></div> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the Team Guyana’s Green Growth<strong> </strong> 2-minute video, click <u><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6FRQiCATeQ">here</a></u></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Bkw7bK1gEjxeSnQSJZBxL5fL_6_hm70X/view?usp=sharing"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31038" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/guyana-green-growth-final-presentation/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-Green-Growth-Final-Presentation.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Guyana Green Growth Final Presentation" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-Green-Growth-Final-Presentation.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-Green-Growth-Final-Presentation.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31038 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-Green-Growth-Final-Presentation.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-Green-Growth-Final-Presentation.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-Green-Growth-Final-Presentation.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Guyana-Green-Growth-Final-Presentation.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>If you can’t see the Team Guyana’s Green Growth<strong> </strong>slides, click <u><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Bkw7bK1gEjxeSnQSJZBxL5fL_6_hm70X/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a></u></p> <p><strong>Go-to-Market/Deployment Strategies<br /> </strong>The initial goal of the teams is to ensure they understand the problem. The next step is to see if they can find mission/solution fit (the DoD equivalent of commercial product/market fit.) But most importantly, the class teaches the teams about the difficult and complex path of getting a solution in the hands of a warfighter/beneficiary. Who writes the requirement? What’s an OTA? What’s color of money? What’s a Program Manager? Who owns the current contract? …</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team Dynamic Space Operations<br /> <em>Cubesats for Space Inspection Training</em></strong></h3> <div id="attachment_31041" style="width: 478px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeCBtR5kuq0"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-31041" data-attachment-id="31041" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/screenshot-10/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-space.jpg?fit=2624%2C1640&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2624,1640" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"Screenshot","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"Screenshot","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Screenshot" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="<p>Screenshot</p> " data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-space.jpg?fit=300%2C188&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-space.jpg?fit=468%2C293&ssl=1" class="wp-image-31041 size-large" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-space.jpg?resize=468%2C293&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="293" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-space.jpg?resize=1024%2C640&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-space.jpg?resize=300%2C188&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-space.jpg?resize=150%2C94&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-space.jpg?resize=768%2C480&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-space.jpg?resize=1536%2C960&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-space.jpg?resize=2048%2C1280&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-space.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-space.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-31041" class="wp-caption-text">Screenshot</p></div> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the Team Dynamic Space Operations<strong> </strong> 2-minute video, click <u><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeCBtR5kuq0">here</a></u></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PRNBW3VtMKOgVVVzDSEtI1xSLRJ3o50q/view?usp=sharing"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31042" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/dynamic-space-operations-team-final-presentation-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-Space-Operations-Team-Final-Presentation-1.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Dynamic Space Operations Team Final Presentation" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-Space-Operations-Team-Final-Presentation-1.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-Space-Operations-Team-Final-Presentation-1.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31042 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-Space-Operations-Team-Final-Presentation-1.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-Space-Operations-Team-Final-Presentation-1.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-Space-Operations-Team-Final-Presentation-1.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Dynamic-Space-Operations-Team-Final-Presentation-1.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>If you can’t see the Team Dynamic Space Operations<strong> </strong> slides, click <u><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PRNBW3VtMKOgVVVzDSEtI1xSLRJ3o50q/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a></u></p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team Spectra Labs<br /> </strong><strong><em>Providing</em> <em>real-time awareness of ..</em></strong></h3> <p>This team’s presentation is available upon request.</p> <p><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1T2FP3ks2rHi3gCe6vGof1SRog8ke_PIv/view?usp=sharing"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31091" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/spectra-labs-redacted-title/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Spectra-Labs-redacted-title.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Spectra Labs redacted title" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Spectra-Labs-redacted-title.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Spectra-Labs-redacted-title.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-31091" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Spectra-Labs-redacted-title.jpg?resize=468%2C264&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="264" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Spectra-Labs-redacted-title.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Spectra-Labs-redacted-title.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Spectra-Labs-redacted-title.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the Spectra Labs slides, click <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1T2FP3ks2rHi3gCe6vGof1SRog8ke_PIv/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><u>here</u></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>What’s Next For These Teams?<br /> </strong>When they graduate, the Stanford students on these teams have the pick of jobs in startups, companies, and consulting firms. House of Laws got accepted and has already started at Y-Combinator. L-Infinity, Dynamics Space Operations team (now Juno Astrodynamics,) and Spectra Labs are started work this week at <a href="https://www.h4xlabs.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">H4X Labs,</a> an accelerator focused on building dual-use companies that sell to both the government and commercial firms. Many of the teams will continue to work with their problem sponsor. Several will join the Stanford <a href="https://gordianknot.stanford.edu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation</a> which is focused on the intersection of policy, operational concepts, and technology.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">In our post class survey 86% of the students said that the class had impact on their immediate next steps in their career. Over 75% said it changed their opinion of working with the Department of Defense and other USG organizations.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>It Takes A Village<br /> </strong>While I authored this blog post, this class is a team project. The secret sauce of the success of Hacking for Defense at Stanford is the extraordinary group of dedicated volunteers supporting our students in so many critical ways.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The teaching team consisted of myself and:</p> <ul style="font-weight: 400;"> <li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/petenewell" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pete Newell</a>, retired Army Colonel and ex Director of the Army’s Rapid Equipping Force, now CEO of <a href="http://www.bmnt.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BMNT</a>.</li> <li><a href="https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/people/joseph_felter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joe Felter</a><u>,</u> retired Army Colonel; and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania; and William J. Perry Fellow at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation.</li> <li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/sweinstein/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Steve Weinstein</a><u>,</u> partner at <a href="https://americasfrontier.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">America’s Frontier Fund</a>, 30-year veteran of Silicon Valley technology companies and Hollywood media companies. Steve was CEO of <a href="https://movielabs.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MovieLabs</a>, the joint R&D lab of all the major motion picture studios. He runs <a href="https://www.h4xlabs.com/">H4X Labs</a>.</li> <li><a href="https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/people/jeff-decker" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jeff Decker</a><u>,</u> a Stanford researcher focusing on dual-use research. Jeff served in the U.S. Army as a special operations light infantry squad leader in Iraq and Afghanistan.</li> </ul> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-2024-Teaching-Team.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="31053" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/h4d-2024-teaching-team/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-2024-Teaching-Team.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1024,768" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"1.78","credit":"","camera":"iPhone 15 Pro","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1717532867","copyright":"","focal_length":"6.7649998656528","iso":"640","shutter_speed":"0.025","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="H4D 2024 Teaching Team" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-2024-Teaching-Team.jpg?fit=300%2C225&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-2024-Teaching-Team.jpg?fit=468%2C351&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-31053" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-2024-Teaching-Team.jpg?resize=300%2C225&ssl=1" alt="" width="300" height="225" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-2024-Teaching-Team.jpg?resize=300%2C225&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-2024-Teaching-Team.jpg?resize=150%2C113&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-2024-Teaching-Team.jpg?resize=768%2C576&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-2024-Teaching-Team.jpg?w=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/H4D-2024-Teaching-Team.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a>Our teaching assistants this year were Joel Johnson, Malika Aubakirova, Spencer Paul, Ethan Tiao, Evan Szablowski, and Josh Pickering. A special thanks to the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and its <a href="https://www.nsin.us/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Security Innovation Network</a> (NSIN) for supporting the program at Stanford and across the country, as well as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>31 Sponsors, Business and National Security Mentors<br /> </strong>The teams were assisted by the originators of their problems – the sponsors.</p> <div class="elementToProof"><em>Sponsors</em>: Jackie Tame, Nate Huston, Mark Breier, Dave Wiltse, Katherine Beamer, Jeff Fields, Dave Miller, Shannon Rooney, and David Ryan.</div> <div></div> <div class="elementToProof"><em>National Security Mentors</em> helped students who came into the class with no knowledge of the Dept of Defense, State and the FBI understand the complexity, intricacies and nuances of those organizations: Brad Boyd, Matt MacGregor, David Vernal, Alphanso “Fonz” Adams, Ray Powell, Sam Townsend, Tom Kulisz, Rich Lawson, Mark McVay, Nick Shenkin, David Arulanantham and Matt Lintker.</div> <div></div> <div class="elementToProof"><em>Business Mentors</em> helped the teams understand if their solutions could be a commercially successful business: Katie Tobin, Marco Romani, Rafi Holtzman, Rachel Costello, Donnie Hassletine, Craig Seidel, Diane Schrader and Matt Croce.</div> <p>Thanks to all!</p> <iframe loading="lazy" width="100%" height="91" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F1856906550&width=false&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&visual=false&show_comments=false&color=false&show_user=false&show_reposts=false"></iframe> <div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="robots-nocontent sd-block sd-social sd-social-official sd-sharing"><h3 class="sd-title">Share this:</h3><div class="sd-content"><ul><li class="share-print"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-print sd-button" href="https://steveblank.com/2024/06/24/hacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations/" target="_blank" title="Click to print" ><span>Print</span></a></li><li class="share-email"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-email sd-button" href="mailto:?subject=%5BShared%20Post%5D%20Hacking%20for%20Defense%20%40%20Stanford%C2%A02024%20-%20Lessons%20Learned%20Presentations&body=https%3A%2F%2Fsteveblank.com%2F2024%2F06%2F24%2Fhacking-for-defense-stanford-2024-lessons-learned-presentations%2F&share=email" target="_blank" title="Click to email a link to a friend" data-email-share-error-title="Do you have email set up?" data-email-share-error-text="If you're having problems sharing via email, you might not have email set up for your browser. 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Students formed teams, got out of the classroom and talked to the stakeholders and developed policy recommendations.</li> </ul> <hr /> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Why This Class?</strong><br /> The recognition that the United States is engaged in long-term strategic competition with the Peoples Republic of China and Russia became a centerpiece of the <a href="https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf">2017 National Security Strategy</a> and<a href="https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf"> 2018 National Defense Strategy</a>. The 2021<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/NSC-1v2.pdf"> interim National Security Guidance</a> and the administration’s recently released <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf">2022 National Security Strategy</a> make clear that China has rapidly become more assertive and is the only competitor potentially capable of combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to mount a sustained challenge to a stable and open international system<strong>. </strong>And as we’ve seen in Ukraine, Russia remains determined to wage a brutal war to play a disruptive role on the world stage.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Prevailing in this competition will require more than merely acquiring the fruits of this technological revolution; it will require a paradigm shift in the thinking of how this technology can be rapidly integrated into new capabilities and platforms to drive new operational and organizational concepts and strategies that change and optimize the way we compete.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Class Organization<br /> </strong>The readings, lectures, and guest speakers explored how emerging <em>commercial </em>technologies pose challenges and create opportunities for the United States in its strategic competition with great power rivals with an emphasis on the People’s Republic of China. We focused on the challenges created when U.S. government agencies, our federal research labs, and government contractors no longer have exclusive access to these advanced technologies.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">This course included all that you would expect from a Stanford graduate-level class in the <a href="https://fsi.stanford.edu/masters-degree">Masters in International Policy</a> – comprehensive readings, guest lectures from current and former senior officials/experts, and written papers. What makes the class unique however, is that <em>this is an <u>experiential </u>policy class</em>. Students formed small teams and embarked on a quarter-long project that got them out of the classroom to:</p> <ul> <li>identify a priority national security challenge, and then …</li> <li>validate the problem and propose a detailed solution tested against actual stakeholders in the technology and national security ecosystem.</li> </ul> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The class was split into three parts.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Part 1, weeks 1 through 4 covered the international relations theories that attempt to explain the dynamics of interstate competition between powerful states, U.S. national security and national defense strategies and policies guiding our approach to Great Power Competition specifically focused on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">In between parts 1 and 2 of the class, the students had a midterm individual project. It required them to write a 2,000-word policy memo describing how a U.S. competitor is using a specific technology to counter U.S. interests and a proposal for how the U.S. should respond.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Part 2, weeks 5 through 8, dove into the commercial technologies: semiconductors, space, cyber, AI and Machine Learning, High Performance Computing, and Biotech. Each week the students had to read 5-10 articles (see class readings <u><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mbNAg1YfbpgX7pM2cJOwMbf_gBB3UcyV/view?usp=sharing">here.)</a></u> And each week we had guest speakers on great power competition, and technology and its impact on national power and lectures/class discussion.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Guest Speakers<br /> </em>In addition to the teaching team, the course drew on the experience and expertise of guest lecturers from industry and from across U.S. Government agencies to provide context and perspective on <em>commercial </em>technologies and national security.<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Mattis-2023-TIGPC.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="30491" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/02/06/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2023-wrap-up/mattis-2023-tigpc/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Mattis-2023-TIGPC.jpg?fit=210%2C158&ssl=1" data-orig-size="210,158" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Mattis 2023 TIGPC" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Mattis-2023-TIGPC.jpg?fit=210%2C158&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Mattis-2023-TIGPC.jpg?fit=210%2C158&ssl=1" class="alignright wp-image-30491" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Mattis-2023-TIGPC.jpg?resize=177%2C133&ssl=1" alt="" width="177" height="133" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Mattis-2023-TIGPC.jpg?w=210&ssl=1 210w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Mattis-2023-TIGPC.jpg?resize=150%2C113&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 177px) 100vw, 177px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The students were privileged to hear from extraordinary guest speakers with significant experience and credibility on a range of topics related to the course objectives. Highlights of this year’s speakers include:</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">On National Security and American exceptionalism: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Mattis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">General Jim Mattis</a>, US Marine Corps (<em>Ret</em>.), former Secretary of Defense.<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-3.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="30487" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/02/06/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2023-wrap-up/2023-tigpc-guest-photos-3/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-3.jpg?fit=357%2C149&ssl=1" data-orig-size="357,149" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="2023 TIGPC guest photos 3" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-3.jpg?fit=300%2C125&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-3.jpg?fit=357%2C149&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-30487" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-3.jpg?resize=304%2C127&ssl=1" alt="" width="304" height="127" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-3.jpg?w=357&ssl=1 357w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-3.jpg?resize=300%2C125&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-3.jpg?resize=150%2C63&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 304px) 100vw, 304px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">On China’s activities and efforts to compete with the U.S.: Matt Pottinger – former Deputy National Security Advisor, Elizabeth Economy – leading China scholar and former Dept of Commerce Senior Advisor for China, Tai Ming Cheung, – Author of <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Innovate-Dominate-Chinese-Techno-Security-State-ebook/dp/B09HW59LDC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Innovate to Dominate</a>: The Rise of the Chinese Techno-Security State.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-1.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="30483" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/02/06/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2023-wrap-up/2023-tigpc-guest-photos-1/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-1.jpg?fit=468%2C146&ssl=1" data-orig-size="468,146" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="2023 TIGPC guest photos 1" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-1.jpg?fit=300%2C94&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-1.jpg?fit=468%2C146&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-30483" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-1.jpg?resize=468%2C146&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="146" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-1.jpg?w=468&ssl=1 468w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-1.jpg?resize=300%2C94&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-1.jpg?resize=150%2C47&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>On U.S. – China Policy: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Gallagher_(American_politician)" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Congressman Mike Gallagher</a>, Chair House Select Committe on China.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">On Innovation and National Security: Chris Brose – Author of <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Kill-Chain-Defending-America-High-Tech/dp/031653367X/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Kill Chain</a>, Doug Beck – Director of the <a href="https://www.diu.mil" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Defense Innovation Unit</a>, Anja Manuel – Executive Director of the <a href="https://www.aspensecurityforum.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aspen Strategy and Security Forum</a>.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">For Biotech: Ben Kirukup – senior biologist US Navy, Ed You – FBI Special Agent Biological Countermeasures Unit, Deborah Rosenblum – Asst Sec of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs, Joe DeSimone – Professor Chemical Engineering.<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-4.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="30488" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/02/06/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2023-wrap-up/2023-tigpc-guest-photos-4/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-4.jpg?fit=468%2C150&ssl=1" data-orig-size="468,150" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="2023 TIGPC guest photos 4" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-4.jpg?fit=300%2C96&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-4.jpg?fit=468%2C150&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-30488" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-4.jpg?resize=418%2C134&ssl=1" alt="" width="418" height="134" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-4.jpg?w=468&ssl=1 468w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-4.jpg?resize=300%2C96&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-4.jpg?resize=150%2C48&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 418px) 100vw, 418px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">For AI: Jared Dunnmon – Technical Director for AI at the Defense Innovation Unit, Lt. Gen. (Ret) Jack Shanahan – Director, Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, Anshu Roy- CEO Rhombus AI</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-2.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="30485" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/02/06/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2023-wrap-up/2023-tigpc-guest-photos-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-2.jpg?fit=458%2C109&ssl=1" data-orig-size="458,109" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="2023 TIGPC guest photos 2" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-2.jpg?fit=300%2C71&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-2.jpg?fit=458%2C109&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-30485" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-2.jpg?resize=458%2C109&ssl=1" alt="" width="458" height="109" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-2.jpg?w=458&ssl=1 458w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-2.jpg?resize=300%2C71&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2023-TIGPC-guest-photos-2.jpg?resize=150%2C36&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 458px) 100vw, 458px" /></a>For Cyber: Anne Neuberger – deputy national security advisor for cyber</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">For Semiconductors: Larry Diamond – Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Significantly, the students were able to hear the Chinese perspective on U.S. – China competition from <a href="https://en.igcu.pku.edu.cn/info/1021/1028.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dr. Jia Qingguo</a> – Member of the Standing Committee of the Central Committee of China.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The class closed with a stirring talk and call to action by former National Security Advisor LTG ret <a href="https://www.hoover.org/profiles/h-r-mcmaster" target="_blank" rel="noopener">H.R. McMaster</a>.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">In the weeks in-between we had teaching team lectures followed by speakers that led discussions on the critical commercial technologies.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Team-based Experiential Project</em><br /> The third part of the class was unique – a quarter-long, team-based project. Students formed teams of 4-6 and selected a national security challenge facing an organization or agency within the U.S. Government. They developed hypotheses of how commercial technologies can be used in new and creative ways to help the U.S. wield its instruments of national power. And consistent with all our <a href="https://gordianknot.stanford.edu/">Gordian Knot Center</a> classes, <em>they got out of the classroom. </em>and interviewed 20+ beneficiaries, policy makers, and other key stakeholders testing their hypotheses and proposed solutions.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Hacking For Policy – Final Presentations</em>:<br /> At the end of the quarter, each student teams’ policy recommendations were summarized in a 10-minute presentation. The presentation was the story of the team’s learning journey, describing where they started, where they ended, and the key inflection points in their understanding of the problem. (A written 3000 word report followed focusing on their recommendations for addressing their chosen security challenge and describing how their solutions can be implemented with speed and urgency.)</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">By the end of the class all the teams realized that the policy problem they had selected had morphed into something bigger, deeper, and much more interesting.</p> <p>Their policy presentations are below.</p> <p>The class is as exhausting to teach as it to take. We have an awesome set of teaching assistants.</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team 1: Precision Match (AI for DoD Operations)</strong></h3> <p><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uN2vrjNOJZJgBelNAlcygSP2OOCwrMK5/view?usp=share_link"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="30500" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/02/06/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2023-wrap-up/precision-match-redacted-cover/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Precision-Match-redacted-cover.jpg?fit=1421%2C789&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1421,789" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Precision Match redacted cover" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Precision-Match-redacted-cover.jpg?fit=300%2C167&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Precision-Match-redacted-cover.jpg?fit=468%2C260&ssl=1" class="alignnone wp-image-30500 size-medium" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Precision-Match-redacted-cover.jpg?resize=300%2C167&ssl=1" alt="" width="300" height="167" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Precision-Match-redacted-cover.jpg?resize=300%2C167&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Precision-Match-redacted-cover.jpg?resize=1024%2C569&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Precision-Match-redacted-cover.jpg?resize=150%2C83&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Precision-Match-redacted-cover.jpg?resize=768%2C426&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Precision-Match-redacted-cover.jpg?w=1421&ssl=1 1421w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Precision-Match-redacted-cover.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></p> <p>Click <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uN2vrjNOJZJgBelNAlcygSP2OOCwrMK5/view?usp=share_link" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> to see the presentation.</p> <p>What makes teaching worthwhile is the feedback we get from our students<span style="font-weight: 400;">:</span></p> <blockquote> <p style="font-weight: 400;">TIGPC has been the best class I’ve taken at Stanford and has caused me to do some reflection in what I want to do after my time at Stanford. I’m only a sophomore but doing such a deep dive into energy and (as Steve says) getting out of the building, I’m starting to seriously consider a career in clean energy security post graduation.</p> </blockquote> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team 2: Outbound Investment to China</strong></h3> <p><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_DRgR2942-OhMTtehxGzF3PN9ZMl-GoV/view?usp=share_link"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="30450" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/02/06/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2023-wrap-up/3-regulating-outbound-investment-to-china-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/3-Regulating-Outbound-Investment-to-China-1.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="3 – Regulating Outbound Investment to China" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/3-Regulating-Outbound-Investment-to-China-1.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/3-Regulating-Outbound-Investment-to-China-1.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="alignnone wp-image-30450 size-medium" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/3-Regulating-Outbound-Investment-to-China-1.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1" alt="" width="300" height="169" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/3-Regulating-Outbound-Investment-to-China-1.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/3-Regulating-Outbound-Investment-to-China-1.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/3-Regulating-Outbound-Investment-to-China-1.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Click <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_DRgR2942-OhMTtehxGzF3PN9ZMl-GoV/view?usp=share_link" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> to see the presentation.</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team 3: Open-Source AI</strong></h3> <p><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/19iZvQArKQSf4uWv6VFc_xInpLUreClihqCIATxwNKqk/edit#heading=h.ho4uwsy7v9j9"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="30437" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/02/06/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2023-wrap-up/1-weaponizing-open-source-ai/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/1-Weaponizing-Open-Source-AI.jpeg?fit=2666%2C1500&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2666,1500" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="1 – Weaponizing Open Source AI" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/1-Weaponizing-Open-Source-AI.jpeg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/1-Weaponizing-Open-Source-AI.jpeg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="alignnone wp-image-30437" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/1-Weaponizing-Open-Source-AI.jpeg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1" alt="" width="300" height="169" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/1-Weaponizing-Open-Source-AI.jpeg?resize=1024%2C576&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/1-Weaponizing-Open-Source-AI.jpeg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/1-Weaponizing-Open-Source-AI.jpeg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/1-Weaponizing-Open-Source-AI.jpeg?resize=768%2C432&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/1-Weaponizing-Open-Source-AI.jpeg?resize=1536%2C864&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/1-Weaponizing-Open-Source-AI.jpeg?resize=2048%2C1152&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/1-Weaponizing-Open-Source-AI.jpeg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/1-Weaponizing-Open-Source-AI.jpeg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></p> <p>Click <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/19iZvQArKQSf4uWv6VFc_xInpLUreClihqCIATxwNKqk/edit#heading=h.ho4uwsy7v9j9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> to see a summary of the presentation.</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team 4: AlphaChem</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rQ0Xir-fZEyweeXFeydj1SL0VVYscTTG/view?usp=share_link"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="30449" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/02/06/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2023-wrap-up/8-empowering-ukraine/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/8-Empowering-Ukraine.jpeg?fit=1370%2C753&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1370,753" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="8 – Empowering Ukraine" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/8-Empowering-Ukraine.jpeg?fit=300%2C165&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/8-Empowering-Ukraine.jpeg?fit=468%2C257&ssl=1" class="alignnone wp-image-30449" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/8-Empowering-Ukraine.jpeg?resize=300%2C165&ssl=1" alt="" width="300" height="165" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/8-Empowering-Ukraine.jpeg?resize=300%2C165&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/8-Empowering-Ukraine.jpeg?resize=1024%2C563&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/8-Empowering-Ukraine.jpeg?resize=150%2C82&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/8-Empowering-Ukraine.jpeg?resize=768%2C422&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/8-Empowering-Ukraine.jpeg?w=1370&ssl=1 1370w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/8-Empowering-Ukraine.jpeg?w=936&ssl=1 936w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Click <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rQ0Xir-fZEyweeXFeydj1SL0VVYscTTG/view?usp=share_link" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> to see the presentation.</p> <blockquote> <p style="font-weight: 400;">One of my takeaways from the class is that you can be the smartest person in the room, but you will never have as much knowledge as everyone else combined so go talk to people, it will make you far smarter</p> </blockquote> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team 5: South China Sea</strong></h3> <p><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/12hUfLhl9u8eLO1LjMJTF9JlFNjufWUqM/view?usp=share_link"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="30448" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/02/06/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2023-wrap-up/7-public-private-partnerships/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/7-Public-Private-Partnerships.jpg?fit=703%2C357&ssl=1" data-orig-size="703,357" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="7 – Public Private Partnerships" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/7-Public-Private-Partnerships.jpg?fit=300%2C152&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/7-Public-Private-Partnerships.jpg?fit=468%2C238&ssl=1" class="alignnone wp-image-30448 size-medium" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/7-Public-Private-Partnerships.jpg?resize=300%2C152&ssl=1" alt="" width="300" height="152" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/7-Public-Private-Partnerships.jpg?resize=300%2C152&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/7-Public-Private-Partnerships.jpg?resize=150%2C76&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/7-Public-Private-Partnerships.jpg?w=703&ssl=1 703w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></p> <p>Click <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/12hUfLhl9u8eLO1LjMJTF9JlFNjufWUqM/view?usp=share_link" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> to see the presentation.</p> <blockquote><p>Awesome class! … incredible in bringing prestigious guest speakers into the class and having engaging discussions. My background was not in national security and this class really offered an important perspective on the opportunities for technology innovation to impact and help with national security.</p></blockquote> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team 6: Chinese Real Estate Investment in the U.S.</strong></h3> <p><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iF5xFL9R14ZUCll5g9cc7TzjL3CiDmG5/view?usp=share_link"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="30502" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/02/06/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2023-wrap-up/team-6-redacted-cover/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Team-6-redacted-cover.jpg?fit=714%2C403&ssl=1" data-orig-size="714,403" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Team 6 redacted cover" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Team-6-redacted-cover.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Team-6-redacted-cover.jpg?fit=468%2C264&ssl=1" class="alignnone wp-image-30502 size-medium" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Team-6-redacted-cover.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1" alt="" width="300" height="169" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Team-6-redacted-cover.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Team-6-redacted-cover.jpg?resize=150%2C85&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Team-6-redacted-cover.jpg?w=714&ssl=1 714w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Click <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iF5xFL9R14ZUCll5g9cc7TzjL3CiDmG5/view?usp=share_link" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> to see the presentation.</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team 7: Public Private Partnerships</strong></h3> <p><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1g2aZXBvHsV7oSOzuhKz1Zoz2-iz3XvL2/view?usp=share_link"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="30504" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/02/06/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2023-wrap-up/cover-public-private-partnerships-redacted/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Public-Private-Partnerships-redacted.jpg?fit=715%2C402&ssl=1" data-orig-size="715,402" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="cover Public Private Partnerships redacted" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Public-Private-Partnerships-redacted.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Public-Private-Partnerships-redacted.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="alignnone wp-image-30504 size-medium" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Public-Private-Partnerships-redacted.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1" alt="" width="300" height="169" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Public-Private-Partnerships-redacted.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Public-Private-Partnerships-redacted.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Public-Private-Partnerships-redacted.jpg?w=715&ssl=1 715w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></p> <p>Click <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1g2aZXBvHsV7oSOzuhKz1Zoz2-iz3XvL2/view?usp=share_link" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> to see the presentation.</p> <blockquote><p>Just wanted to let you know that, as a Senior, this is one of the best classes I’ve taken across my 4 years at Stanford.</p></blockquote> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team 8: Ukraine Aid</strong></h3> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/140NN9h0W9NmuRG4s-ZRnsKsDRDZbfhky/view?usp=sharing"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="30506" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/02/06/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2023-wrap-up/cover-empowering-ukraine/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Empowering-Ukraine.jpg?fit=1440%2C810&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1440,810" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="cover – Empowering Ukraine" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Empowering-Ukraine.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Empowering-Ukraine.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="alignnone wp-image-30506 size-medium" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Empowering-Ukraine.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1" alt="" width="300" height="169" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Empowering-Ukraine.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Empowering-Ukraine.jpg?resize=1024%2C576&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Empowering-Ukraine.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Empowering-Ukraine.jpg?resize=768%2C432&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Empowering-Ukraine.jpg?w=1440&ssl=1 1440w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/cover-Empowering-Ukraine.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></h3> <p>Click <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/140NN9h0W9NmuRG4s-ZRnsKsDRDZbfhky/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> to see the presentation.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Lessons Learned</strong></p> <blockquote> <ul> <li>We combined lecture and experiential learning so our students can act on problems not just admire them <ul> <li>The external input the students received was a force multiplier</li> <li>It made the lecture material real, tangible and actionable</li> <li>Lean problem solving methods can be effectively employed to address pressing national security and policy challenges</li> <li>This course was akin to a “Hacking for Policy class” and can be tweaked and replicated going forward.</li> </ul> </li> <li>The class created opportunities for our best and brightest to engage and address challenges at the nexus of technology, innovation and national security <ul> <li>When students are provided such opportunities they aggressively seize them with impressive results</li> <li>The final presentations and papers from the class are proof that will happen</li> </ul> </li> <li>Pushing students past what they think is reasonable results in extraordinary output. 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class="sd-title">Like this:</h3><div class='likes-widget-placeholder post-likes-widget-placeholder' style='height: 55px;'><span class='button'><span>Like</span></span> <span class="loading">Loading...</span></div><span class='sd-text-color'></span><a class='sd-link-color'></a></div> <p class="postinfo"> Filed under: <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/corporate-govt-innovation/" rel="category tag">Corporate/Gov't Innovation</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation/" rel="category tag">Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/national-security/" rel="category tag">National Security</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/technology-innovation-and-modern-war/" rel="category tag">Technology Innovation and Great Power Competition</a> | <a href="https://steveblank.com/2024/02/06/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2023-wrap-up/#comments">2 Comments »</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="post-29364 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-corporate-govt-innovation category-gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation category-technology-innovation-and-modern-war" id="post-29364"> <h2><a href="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/" rel="bookmark">Technology, Innovation, and Great Power Competition – 2022 Wrap Up</a></h2> <div class="postinfo"> Posted on <span class="postdate">January 5, 2023</span> by steve blank </div> <div class="entry"> <p style="font-weight: 400;">We just wrapped up the second year of our <a href="https://tigpc22.sites.stanford.edu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Technology, Innovation, and Great Power Competition<strong> </strong></a>class – now part of our Stanford <a href="https://gordianknot.stanford.edu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation</a>.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://www.defense.gov/Our-Story/Biographies/Biography/Article/1306061/dr-joseph-h-felter/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joe Felter</a>, <a href="https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/zh-ch/people/raj-shah" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Raj Shah</a> and <a href="https://steveblank.com/about/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">I</a> designed the class to 1) give our students an appreciation of the challenges and opportunities for the United States in its enduring strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China, Russia and other rivals, and 2) offer insights on how commercial technology (AI, machine learning, autonomy, cyber, quantum, semiconductors, access to space, biotech, hypersonics, and others) are radically changing how we will compete across all the elements of national power e.g. diplomatic, informational, military, economic, financial, intelligence and law enforcement (our influence and footprint on the world stage).</p> <hr /> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wrapup-TIGPC-2021.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28228" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/wrapup-tigpc-2021/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wrapup-TIGPC-2021.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Wrapup TIGPC 2021" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wrapup-TIGPC-2021.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wrapup-TIGPC-2021.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28228" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wrapup-TIGPC-2021.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wrapup-TIGPC-2021.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wrapup-TIGPC-2021.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wrapup-TIGPC-2021.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>Why This Class?</strong><br /> The return of strategic competition between great powers became a centerpiece of the <a href="https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2017 National Security Strategy</a> and<a href="https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 2018 National Defense Strategy</a>. The 2021<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/NSC-1v2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Interim National Security Guidance</a> and the administration’s recently released <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2022 National Security Strategy</a> make clear that China has rapidly become more assertive and is the only competitor potentially capable of combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to mount a sustained challenge to a stable and open international system<strong>.</strong> And as we’ve seen in the Ukraine, Russia remains determined to wage a brutal war to play a disruptive role on the world stage.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Prevailing in this competition will require more than merely acquiring the fruits of this technological revolution; it will require a paradigm shift in the thinking of how this technology can be rapidly integrated into new capabilities and platforms to drive new operational and organizational concepts and strategies that change and optimize the way we compete.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Class Organization<br /> </strong>The readings, lectures, and guest speakers explored how emerging <em>commercial </em>technologies pose challenges and create opportunities for the United States in strategic competition with great power rivals with an emphasis on the People’s Republic of China. We focused on the challenges created when U.S. government agencies, our federal research labs, and government contractors no longer have exclusive access to these advanced technologies.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/class-1.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29390" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/class-1/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/class-1.jpg?fit=3940%2C1589&ssl=1" data-orig-size="3940,1589" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="class 1" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/class-1.jpg?fit=300%2C121&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/class-1.jpg?fit=468%2C189&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-29390" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/class-1.jpg?resize=468%2C189&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="189" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/class-1.jpg?resize=1024%2C413&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/class-1.jpg?resize=300%2C121&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/class-1.jpg?resize=150%2C60&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/class-1.jpg?resize=768%2C310&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/class-1.jpg?resize=1536%2C619&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/class-1.jpg?resize=2048%2C826&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/class-1.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/class-1.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>This course included all that you would expect from a Stanford graduate-level class in the <a href="https://fsi.stanford.edu/masters-degree" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Masters in International Policy</a> – comprehensive readings, guest lectures from current and former senior officials/experts, and written papers. What makes the class unique however, is that <em>this is an <span style="text-decoration: underline;">experiential</span> policy class</em>. Students formed small teams and embarked on a quarter-long project that got them out of the classroom to 1) identify a priority national security challenge, and then to 2) validate the problem and propose a detailed solution tested against actual stakeholders in the technology and national security ecosystem.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The class was split into three parts. Part 1, weeks 1 through 4 covered international relations theories, strategies and policies around Great Power Competition specifically focused on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Communist Peoples Party (CCP). Part 2, weeks 5 through 8, dove into the commercial technologies: semiconductors, space, cyber, AI and Machine Learning, High Performance Computing, and Biotech. In between parts 1 and 2 of the class, the students had a midterm individual project. It required them to write a 2,000-word policy memo describing how a U.S. competitor is using a specific technology to counter U.S. interests and a proposal for how the U.S. should respond. (These policy memos were reviewed by Tarun Chhabra, the Senior Director for Technology and National Security at the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Security Council</a>.)</p> <p>Each week the students had to read 5-10 articles (see class readings <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mbNAg1YfbpgX7pM2cJOwMbf_gBB3UcyV/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.) And each week we had guest speakers on great power competition, and technology and its impact on national power and lectures/class discussion.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mbNAg1YfbpgX7pM2cJOwMbf_gBB3UcyV/view?usp=sharing"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29378" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/tigpc-assigned-readings/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/TIGPC-Assigned-Readings.jpg?fit=1700%2C2200&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1700,2200" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="TIGPC Assigned Readings" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/TIGPC-Assigned-Readings.jpg?fit=232%2C300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/TIGPC-Assigned-Readings.jpg?fit=468%2C606&ssl=1" class="size-medium wp-image-29378 aligncenter" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/TIGPC-Assigned-Readings.jpg?resize=232%2C300&ssl=1" alt="" width="232" height="300" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/TIGPC-Assigned-Readings.jpg?resize=232%2C300&ssl=1 232w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/TIGPC-Assigned-Readings.jpg?resize=791%2C1024&ssl=1 791w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/TIGPC-Assigned-Readings.jpg?resize=116%2C150&ssl=1 116w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/TIGPC-Assigned-Readings.jpg?resize=768%2C994&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/TIGPC-Assigned-Readings.jpg?resize=1187%2C1536&ssl=1 1187w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/TIGPC-Assigned-Readings.jpg?resize=1583%2C2048&ssl=1 1583w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/TIGPC-Assigned-Readings.jpg?w=1700&ssl=1 1700w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/TIGPC-Assigned-Readings.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/TIGPC-Assigned-Readings.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 232px) 100vw, 232px" /></a><em>Guest Speakers<br /> </em>In addition to the teaching team, the course drew on the experience and expertise of guest lecturers from industry and from across U.S. Government agencies to provide context and perspective on <i>commercial </i>technologies and national security.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Our class opened with three guest speakers; former U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis and the CIA’s CTO and COO Nand Mulchandani and Andy Makridis. The last class closed with a talk by Google ex-Chairman Eric Schmidt.<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Guests-1.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29387" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/guests-1/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Guests-1.jpg?fit=1863%2C1195&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1863,1195" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Guests 1" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Guests-1.jpg?fit=300%2C192&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Guests-1.jpg?fit=468%2C300&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-29387" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Guests-1.jpg?resize=275%2C176&ssl=1" alt="" width="275" height="176" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Guests-1.jpg?resize=150%2C96&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Guests-1.jpg?resize=300%2C192&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Guests-1.jpg?resize=1024%2C657&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Guests-1.jpg?resize=768%2C493&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Guests-1.jpg?resize=1536%2C985&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Guests-1.jpg?w=1863&ssl=1 1863w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Guests-1.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Guests-1.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 275px) 100vw, 275px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">In the weeks in-between we had teaching team lectures followed by speakers that led discussions on the critical commercial technologies. For semiconductors, the White House Coordinator for <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/the-chips-and-science-act-heres-whats-in-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the CHIPS Act</a> – Ronnie Chatterji, and the CTO of <a href="https://www.appliedmaterials.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Applied Materials</a> – Om Nalamasu. For commercial tech integration and space, former <a href="https://www.diu.mil" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Defense Innovation Unit</a> (DIU) Director Mike Brown and B. General Bucky Butow – Director of the Space Portfolio. For Artificial Intelligence, Lt. Gen. (Ret) Jack Shanahan, former director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center. And for synthetic biology Stanford Professor Drew Endy – President, <a href="https://biobricks.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BioBricks Foundation</a>.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Team-based Experiential Project</em><br /> The third part of the class was unique – a quarter-long, team-based project. Students formed teams and developed hypotheses of how commercial technologies can be used in new and creative ways to help the U.S. wield its instruments of national power. And consistent with all our <a href="https://gordianknot.stanford.edu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gordian Knot Center</a> classes, <em>they got out of the classroom</em> and interviewed 20+ beneficiaries, policy makers, and other key stakeholders testing their hypotheses and proposed solutions. At the end of the quarter, each of the teams gave a final “Lessons Learned” presentation and followed up with a 3,000 to 5,000-word team-written paper<em>.</em></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">By the end of the class all the teams realized that the problem they had selected had morphed into something bigger, deeper, and much more interesting.</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team 1: Climate Change</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Original Problem Statement: </em>What combinations of technologies and international financial relationships should the US prioritize to mitigate climate change?</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Final Problem Statement: </em>How should the US manage China’s dominance in solar panels?</p> <p><a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/team-army-climate-change-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29457" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/team-1-climate-change-cover/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-1-Climate-Change-cover.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Team 1 Climate Change cover" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-1-Climate-Change-cover.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-1-Climate-Change-cover.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-29457 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-1-Climate-Change-cover.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-1-Climate-Change-cover.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-1-Climate-Change-cover.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-1-Climate-Change-cover.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the presentation click <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/team-army-climate-change-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition">here</a>.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-climate.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29412" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/team-climate/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-climate.jpg?fit=4032%2C3024&ssl=1" data-orig-size="4032,3024" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.8","credit":"","camera":"iPhone 13 Pro Max","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1670267252","copyright":"","focal_length":"9","iso":"250","shutter_speed":"0.025","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Team climate" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-climate.jpg?fit=300%2C225&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-climate.jpg?fit=468%2C351&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-29412" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-climate.jpg?resize=468%2C351&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="351" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-climate.jpg?resize=1024%2C768&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-climate.jpg?resize=300%2C225&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-climate.jpg?resize=150%2C113&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-climate.jpg?resize=768%2C576&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-climate.jpg?resize=1536%2C1152&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-climate.jpg?resize=2048%2C1536&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-climate.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-climate.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p>We knew that these students could write a great research paper. As we pointed out to them, while you can be the smartest person in the building, it’s unlikely that 1) all the facts are in the building, 2) you’re smarter than the collective intelligence sitting outside the building.</p> <div style="padding: 12px; background-color: #e8e8e8; line-height: 1.4;"> <p><em>Jonah Cader</em>: “<span style="color: #000000;">Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition (TIGPC) is that rare combination of the theoretical, tactical, and practical. Over 10 weeks, Blank, Felter, and Shah outline the complexities of modern geopolitical tensions and bring students up the learning curves of critical areas of technological competition, from semiconductors to artificial intelligence. Each week of the seminar is a crash course in a new domain, brought to life by rich discussion and an incredible slate of practitioners who live and breathe the content of TIGPC daily. Beyond the classroom, the course plunges students into getting “out of the building” to iterate quickly while translating learnings to the real world. Along the way the course acts as a strong call to public service.”</span></p> </div> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team 2: Networks</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Original Problem Statement: </em>How might we implement a ubiquitous secure global access to the internet in order to help circumvent censorship in authoritarian regimes?</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em> Final Problem Statement: </em>How can we create an open, free Internet and maintain effective lines of communication in Taiwan in preparation for a potential invasion?</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/team-networks-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition-255126380"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29484" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/team-2-networks-2-cover/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-2-Networks-2-cover.jpg?fit=960%2C540&ssl=1" data-orig-size="960,540" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Team 2 Networks 2 cover" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-2-Networks-2-cover.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-2-Networks-2-cover.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-29484 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-2-Networks-2-cover.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-2-Networks-2-cover.jpg?w=960&ssl=1 960w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-2-Networks-2-cover.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-2-Networks-2-cover.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-2-Networks-2-cover.jpg?resize=768%2C432&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the presentation click <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/team-networks-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition-255126380" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">By week 2 of the class students formed teams around a specific technology challenge facing a US government agency and worked throughout the course to develop their own proposals to help the U.S. compete more effectively through new operational concepts, organizations, and/or strategies.</p> <hr /> <div style="padding: 12px; background-color: #e8e8e8; line-height: 1.4;"> <p><em>Jason Kim</em>: <em>“</em>This course doesn’t just discuss U.S. national security issues. It teaches students how to apply an influential and proven methodology to rapidly develop solutions to our most challenging problems.”</p> </div> <hr /> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team 3: Acquisition</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Original Problem Statement: </em>How can the U.S. Department of Defense match or beat the speed of great power competitors in acquiring and integrating critical technologies?</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Final Problem Statement: </em>How can the U.S. Department of Defense deploy alternative funding mechanisms in parallel to traditional procurement vehicles to enable and incentivize the delivery of critical next-generation technology in under 5 years?</p> <p><a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/team-acquistion-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29461" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/team-3-acquistion-cover/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-3-Acquistion-cover.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Team 3 Acquistion cover" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-3-Acquistion-cover.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-3-Acquistion-cover.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-29461 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-3-Acquistion-cover.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-3-Acquistion-cover.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-3-Acquistion-cover.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-3-Acquistion-cover.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the presentation click <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/team-acquistion-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition">here</a></p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-acquistion.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29394" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/team-acquistion/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-acquistion.jpg?fit=3233%2C1710&ssl=1" data-orig-size="3233,1710" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Team acquistion" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-acquistion.jpg?fit=300%2C159&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-acquistion.jpg?fit=468%2C248&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-29394" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-acquistion.jpg?resize=468%2C248&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="248" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-acquistion.jpg?resize=1024%2C542&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-acquistion.jpg?resize=300%2C159&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-acquistion.jpg?resize=150%2C79&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-acquistion.jpg?resize=768%2C406&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-acquistion.jpg?resize=1536%2C812&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-acquistion.jpg?resize=2048%2C1083&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-acquistion.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-acquistion.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">We wanted to give our students hands-on experience on how to deeply understand a problem at the intersection of our country’s diplomacy, information, its military capabilities, economic strength, finance, intelligence, and law enforcement and dual-use technology. First by having them develop hypotheses about the problem; next by getting out of the classroom and talking to relevant stakeholders across government, industry, and academia to validate their assumptions; and finally by taking what they learned to propose and prototype<em> solutions</em> to these problems.</p> <hr /> <div style="padding: 12px; background-color: #e8e8e8; line-height: 1.4;"><em>Matt Kaplan</em>: “The TIGPC class was a highlight of my academic experience at Stanford. Over the ten week quarter, I learned a tremendous amount about the importance of technology in global politics from the three professors and from the experts in government, business, and academia who came to speak. The class epitomizes some of the best parts of my time here: the opportunity to learn from incredible, caring faculty and to work with inspiring classmates. Joe, Steve, Raj instilled in my classmates and me a fresh sense of excitement to work in public service.”</div> <hr /> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong> Team 4: Wargames</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Original Problem Statement: </em>The U.S. needs a way, given a representative <u><a href="https://store.steampowered.com/app/1076160/Command_Modern_Operations/">simulation,</a></u> to rapidly explore a strategy for possible novel uses of existing platforms and weapons.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Final Problem Statement: </em>Strategic wargames stand to benefit from a stronger integration of AI+ML but are struggling to find adoption and usage. How can this be addressed?</p> <p><a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/team-wargames-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29463" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/team-4-wargames-cover/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-4-Wargames-cover.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Team 4 – Wargames cover" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-4-Wargames-cover.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-4-Wargames-cover.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-29463 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-4-Wargames-cover.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-4-Wargames-cover.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-4-Wargames-cover.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-4-Wargames-cover.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the presentation click <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/team-wargames-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition">here</a></p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-wargames.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29400" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/team-wargames/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-wargames.jpg?fit=2647%2C1892&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2647,1892" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Team wargames" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-wargames.jpg?fit=300%2C214&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-wargames.jpg?fit=468%2C335&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-29400" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-wargames.jpg?resize=468%2C335&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="335" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-wargames.jpg?resize=1024%2C732&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-wargames.jpg?resize=300%2C214&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-wargames.jpg?resize=150%2C107&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-wargames.jpg?resize=768%2C549&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-wargames.jpg?resize=1536%2C1098&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-wargames.jpg?resize=2048%2C1464&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-wargames.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-wargames.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">We want our students to build the reflexes and skills to deeply understand a problem by gathering first-hand information and validating that the problem they are solving is the real problem, not a symptom of something else. Then, students began rapidly building minimal viable solutions (policy, software, hardware …) as a way to test and validate their understanding of both the problem and what it would take to solve it.</p> <hr /> <div style="padding: 12px; background-color: #e8e8e8; line-height: 1.4;"><em>Etienne Reche-Ley</em>: “Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition gave me an opportunity to dive into a real world national security threat to the United States and understand the implications of it within the great power competition. Unlike any other class I have taken at Stanford, this class allowed me to take action on our problem about networks, censorship and the lack of free flow of information in authoritarian regimes, and gave me the chance to meet and learn from a multitude of experts on the topic. I finished this class with a deep understanding of our problem, a proposed actionable solution and a newfound interest in the intersection of technology and innovation as it applies to national defense. I am very grateful to have been part of this course, and it has inspired me to go a step further and pursue a career related to national security.”</div> <hr /> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team 6: Disinformation</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Original Problem Statement: </em>Disinformation is a national security threat.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Final Problem Statement: </em>The U.S.’s ability to close the disinformation response kill chain is hampered by a lack of coordination between U.S. government agencies, no clear ownership of the disinformation problem, and a lack of clear guidelines on public-private partnerships.</p> <p><a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/team-disinformation-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29465" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/team-6-disinformation-cover/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-6-Disinformation-cover.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Team 6 Disinformation cover" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-6-Disinformation-cover.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-6-Disinformation-cover.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-29465 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-6-Disinformation-cover.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-6-Disinformation-cover.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-6-Disinformation-cover.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-6-Disinformation-cover.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the presentation click <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/team-disinformation-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition">here</a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-Babel-disinformation.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29392" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/team-babel-disinformation/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-Babel-disinformation.jpg?fit=4032%2C3024&ssl=1" data-orig-size="4032,3024" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"2.8","credit":"","camera":"iPhone 13 Pro Max","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1670258831","copyright":"","focal_length":"9","iso":"125","shutter_speed":"0.0083333333333333","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Team Babel disinformation" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-Babel-disinformation.jpg?fit=300%2C225&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-Babel-disinformation.jpg?fit=468%2C351&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-29392" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-Babel-disinformation.jpg?resize=468%2C351&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="351" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-Babel-disinformation.jpg?resize=1024%2C768&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-Babel-disinformation.jpg?resize=300%2C225&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-Babel-disinformation.jpg?resize=150%2C113&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-Babel-disinformation.jpg?resize=768%2C576&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-Babel-disinformation.jpg?resize=1536%2C1152&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-Babel-disinformation.jpg?resize=2048%2C1536&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-Babel-disinformation.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-Babel-disinformation.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>One other goal of the class was to continue to validate and refine our pedagogy of combining a traditional lecture class with an experiential project. We did this by tasking the students to 1) use what they learned from the lectures and 2) then test their assumptions outside the classroom, the external input they received would be a force multiplier. <em>It would make the lecture material real, tangible and actionable</em>. And we and they would end up with something quite valuable.</p> <hr /> <div style="padding: 12px; background-color: #e8e8e8; line-height: 1.4;"><em>Shreyas Lakhtakia</em>: “TIGPC is an interdisciplinary class like no other. It is a fabulous introduction to some of the most significant tech and geopolitical challenges and questions of the 21st century. The class, like the topics it covers, is incredible and ambitious – it’s a great way to level up your understanding of not just international policy, political theory and technology policy but also deep tech and the role of startups in projecting national power. If you’re curious about the future of the world and the role of the US in it, you won’t find a more unique course, a more dedicated teaching team or better speakers to hear from than this!”</div> <hr /> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Team 7: Quantum Technology</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Original Problem Statement: </em>China’s planned government investment in quantum dwarfs that of the U.S. by a factor of 10.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Final Problem Statement: </em>The US quantum ecosystem does not generate enough awareness of opportunities to pursue careers in quantum that could catalyze industry growth.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/team-quantum-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition/sblank/team-quantum-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29467" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/team-7-quantum-cover/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-7-Quantum-cover.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Team 7 Quantum cover" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-7-Quantum-cover.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-7-Quantum-cover.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-29467 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-7-Quantum-cover.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-7-Quantum-cover.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-7-Quantum-cover.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-7-Quantum-cover.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the presentation click <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/team-quantum-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition/sblank/team-quantum-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition">here</a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Team-quantum-tech.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29406" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/team-quantum-tech/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Team-quantum-tech.jpg?fit=2964%2C2614&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2964,2614" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Team quantum tech" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Team-quantum-tech.jpg?fit=300%2C265&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Team-quantum-tech.jpg?fit=468%2C413&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-29406" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Team-quantum-tech.jpg?resize=468%2C413&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="413" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Team-quantum-tech.jpg?resize=1024%2C903&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Team-quantum-tech.jpg?resize=300%2C265&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Team-quantum-tech.jpg?resize=150%2C132&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Team-quantum-tech.jpg?resize=768%2C677&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Team-quantum-tech.jpg?resize=1536%2C1355&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Team-quantum-tech.jpg?resize=2048%2C1806&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Team-quantum-tech.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Team-quantum-tech.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>We knew we were asking a lot from our students. We were integrating a lecture class with a heavy reading list with the best practices of hypothesis testing from Lean Launchpad/Hacking for Defense/I-Corps. But I’ve yet to bet wrong in pushing students past what they think is reasonable. Most rise way above the occasion.</p> <hr /> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong> Team 9: Lithium-Ion Batteries</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Original Problem Statement: </em>Supply and production of lithium-ion batteries is centered in China. How can the U.S. become competitive?</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Final Problem Statement: </em>China controls the processing of critical materials used for lithium-ion batteries. To regain control the DOE needs to incentivize short and long-term strategies to increase processing of critical materials and decrease dependence on lithium-ion batteries.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/team-lion-batteries-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29469" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/team-9-lion-batteries-cover/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-9-LiOn-Batteries-cover.jpg?fit=720%2C405&ssl=1" data-orig-size="720,405" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Team 9 LiOn Batteries cover" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-9-LiOn-Batteries-cover.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-9-LiOn-Batteries-cover.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-29469 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-9-LiOn-Batteries-cover.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-9-LiOn-Batteries-cover.jpg?w=720&ssl=1 720w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-9-LiOn-Batteries-cover.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-9-LiOn-Batteries-cover.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the presentation click <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/team-lion-batteries-2022-technology-innovation-great-power-competition">here</a></p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-LiIon.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="29410" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/team-liion-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-LiIon.jpg?fit=3573%2C2181&ssl=1" data-orig-size="3573,2181" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Team LiIon" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-LiIon.jpg?fit=300%2C183&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-LiIon.jpg?fit=468%2C286&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-29410" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-LiIon.jpg?resize=468%2C286&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="286" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-LiIon.jpg?resize=1024%2C625&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-LiIon.jpg?resize=300%2C183&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-LiIon.jpg?resize=150%2C92&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-LiIon.jpg?resize=768%2C469&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-LiIon.jpg?resize=1536%2C938&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-LiIon.jpg?resize=2048%2C1250&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-LiIon.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Team-LiIon.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <hr /> <p style="font-weight: 400;">All of our students put in extraordinary amount of work. Our students came from a diverse set of background and interests – from undergraduate sophomores to 5th year PhD’s – in a mix including international policy, economics, computer science, business, law and engineering. Some will go on to senior roles in State, Defense, policy or other agencies. Others will join or found the companies building new disruptive technologies. They’ll be the ones to determine what the world-order will look like for the rest of the century and beyond. Will it be a rules-based order where states cooperate to pursue a shared vision for a free and open region and where the sovereignty of all countries large and small is protected under international law? Or will it be an autocratic and dystopian future coerced and imposed by a neo-totalitarian regime?</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">This class changed the trajectory of many of our students. A number expressed newfound interest in exploring career options in the field of national security. Several will be taking advantage of opportunities provided by the <a href="https://gordianknot.stanford.edu/">Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation</a> to further pursue their contribution to national security.</p> <p>This course and our work at <a href="https://gordianknot.stanford.edu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Stanford’s Gordian Knot Center</a> would not be possible without the unrelenting support and guidance from Ambassador Mike McFaul and Professor Riitta Katila, GKC founding faculty and Principal Investigators, and the tenacity of David Hoyt, Gordian Knot Center Assistant Director.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Lessons Learned</strong></p> <blockquote> <ul> <li>We combined lecture and experiential learning so our students can act on problems not just admire them <ul> <li>The external input the students received was a force multiplier</li> <li>It made the lecture material real, tangible and actionable</li> <li>Pushing students past what they think is reasonable results in extraordinary output. Most rise way above the occasion</li> </ul> </li> <li>The class creates opportunities for our best and brightest to engage and address challenges at the nexus of technology, innovation and national security <ul> <li>The final presentations and papers from the class are proof that will happen</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </blockquote> <iframe loading="lazy" width="100%" height="92" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F1420491715&width=false&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&visual=false&show_comments=false&color=false&show_user=false&show_reposts=false"></iframe> <div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="robots-nocontent sd-block sd-social sd-social-official sd-sharing"><h3 class="sd-title">Share this:</h3><div class="sd-content"><ul><li class="share-print"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-print sd-button" href="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/" target="_blank" title="Click to print" ><span>Print</span></a></li><li class="share-email"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-email sd-button" href="mailto:?subject=%5BShared%20Post%5D%20Technology%2C%20Innovation%2C%20and%20Great%20Power%20Competition%C2%A0%20%E2%80%93%202022%20Wrap%20Up&body=https%3A%2F%2Fsteveblank.com%2F2023%2F01%2F05%2Ftechnology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up%2F&share=email" target="_blank" title="Click to email a link to a friend" data-email-share-error-title="Do you have email set up?" data-email-share-error-text="If you're having problems sharing via email, you might not have email set up for your browser. 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class="sd-title">Like this:</h3><div class='likes-widget-placeholder post-likes-widget-placeholder' style='height: 55px;'><span class='button'><span>Like</span></span> <span class="loading">Loading...</span></div><span class='sd-text-color'></span><a class='sd-link-color'></a></div> <p class="postinfo"> Filed under: <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/corporate-govt-innovation/" rel="category tag">Corporate/Gov't Innovation</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation/" rel="category tag">Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/technology-innovation-and-modern-war/" rel="category tag">Technology Innovation and Great Power Competition</a> | <a href="https://steveblank.com/2023/01/05/technology-innovation-and-great-power-competition-2022-wrap-up/#comments">2 Comments »</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="post-28762 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation category-technology" id="post-28762"> <h2><a href="https://steveblank.com/2022/05/17/artificial-intelligence-and-machine-learning-explained/" rel="bookmark">Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning– Explained</a></h2> <div class="postinfo"> Posted on <span class="postdate">May 17, 2022</span> by steve blank </div> <div class="entry"> <p style="font-weight: 400; text-align: center;"><em>Artificial Intelligence is a once-in-a lifetime commercial and defense game changer</em></p> <p>(download a PDF of this article <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GReNZ9fbI4203esUwGzqqLVg1EleXLWy/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>)</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Logo.png?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28767" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/ai-logo/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Logo.png?fit=563%2C422&ssl=1" data-orig-size="563,422" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="AI Logo" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Logo.png?fit=300%2C225&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Logo.png?fit=468%2C351&ssl=1" class="wp-image-28767 alignleft" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Logo.png?resize=334%2C251&ssl=1" alt="" width="334" height="251" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Logo.png?w=563&ssl=1 563w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Logo.png?resize=300%2C225&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Logo.png?resize=150%2C112&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 334px) 100vw, 334px" /></a>Hundreds of billions in public and private capital is being invested in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning companies. The <a href="https://aiindex.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2022-AI-Index-Report_Master.pdf">number of patents filed in 2021 is more than 30 times higher than in 2015</a> as companies and countries across the world have realized that AI and Machine Learning will be a major disruptor and potentially change the balance of military power.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Until recently, the hype exceeded reality. Today, however, advances in AI in several important areas (<a href="https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/04/pathways-language-model-palm-scaling-to.html">here</a>, <a href="https://openai.com/dall-e-2/">here</a>, <a href="https://analyticsindiamag.com/nvidia-microsoft-introduce-new-language-model-mt-nlg-with-530-billion-parameters-leaves-gpt-3-behind/">here</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/russelljkaplan/status/1513128005828165634">here</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/hausman_k/status/1511152160695730181">here</a>) equal and even surpass human capabilities.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you haven’t paid attention, now’s the time.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Artificial Intelligence and the Department of Defense (DoD)</strong><br /> The Department of Defense has thought that Artificial Intelligence is such a foundational set of technologies that they started a dedicated organization- <a href="https://www.ai.mil/">the JAIC</a> – to enable and implement artificial intelligence across the Department. They provide the infrastructure, tools, and technical expertise for DoD users to successfully build and deploy their AI-accelerated projects.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Some specific defense related AI applications are listed later in this document.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>We’re in the Middle of a Revolution<br /> </strong>Imagine it’s 1950, and you’re a visitor who traveled back in time from today. Your job is to explain the impact computers will have on business, defense and society to people who are using manual calculators and slide rules. You succeed in convincing one company and a government to adopt computers and learn to code much faster than their competitors /adversaries. And they figure out how they could digitally enable their business – supply chain, customer interactions, etc. Think about the competitive edge they’d have by today in business or as a nation. They’d steamroll everyone.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">That’s where we are today with Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. These technologies will transform businesses and government agencies. Today, 100s of billions of dollars in private capital have been invested in 1,000s of AI startups. The U.S. Department of Defense has created a dedicated organization to ensure its deployment.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>But What Is It?<br /> </strong>Compared to the classic computing we’ve had for the last 75 years, AI has led to new types of applications, e.g. facial recognition; new types of algorithms, e.g. machine learning; new types of computer architectures, e.g. neural nets; new hardware, e.g. GPUs; new types of software developers, e.g. data scientists; all under the overarching theme of artificial intelligence. The sum of these feels like buzzword bingo. But they herald a sea change in what computers are capable of doing, how they do it, and what hardware and software is needed to do it.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">This brief will attempt to describe all of it.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>New Words to Define Old Things<br /> </strong>One of the reasons the world of AI/ML is confusing is that it’s created its own language and vocabulary. It uses new words to define programming steps, job descriptions, development tools, etc. But once you understand how the new world maps onto the classic computing world, it starts to make sense. So first a short list of some key definitions.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>AI/ML – </em>a shorthand for Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Artificial Intelligence (AI)</em> – a catchall term used to describe “Intelligent machines” which can solve problems, make/suggest decisions and perform tasks that have traditionally required humans to do. AI is not a single thing, but a constellation of different technologies.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Definition.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28924" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/ai-definition/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Definition.jpg?fit=939%2C535&ssl=1" data-orig-size="939,535" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="AI Definition" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Definition.jpg?fit=300%2C171&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Definition.jpg?fit=468%2C267&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28924" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Definition.jpg?resize=468%2C266&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="266" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Definition.jpg?w=939&ssl=1 939w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Definition.jpg?resize=300%2C171&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Definition.jpg?resize=150%2C85&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Definition.jpg?resize=768%2C438&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a><em>Machine Learning</em> (ML) – a subfield of artificial intelligence. Humans combine data with <a href="https://machinelearningmastery.com/difference-between-algorithm-and-model-in-machine-learning/">algorithms</a> (see <a href="https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/machine-learning/algorithm-cheat-sheet">here</a> for a list) to <em>train a model</em> using that data. This trained model can then make predications on new data (is this picture a cat, a dog or a person?) or decision-making processes (like understanding text and images) without being explicitly programmed to do so.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400; padding-left: 40px;"><a href="https://wiki.pathmind.com/machine-learning-algorithms"><em>Machine learning algorithms</em></a> – computer programs that adjust themselves to perform better as they are exposed to more data. The “learning” part of machine learning means these programs change how they process data over time. In other words, a machine-learning algorithm can adjust its own settings, given feedback on its previous performance in making predictions about a collection of data (images, text, etc.).</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_learning"><em>Deep Learning</em></a><em>/Neural Nets</em> – a subfield of machine learning. <a href="https://www.ibm.com/cloud/learn/neural-networks">Neural networks</a> make up the backbone of deep learning. (The “deep” in deep learning refers to the depth of layers in a neural network.) Neural nets are effective at a variety of tasks (<em>e.g., </em>image classification, speech recognition).<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/deep-neural-net.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28779" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/deep-neural-net/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/deep-neural-net.jpg?fit=319%2C227&ssl=1" data-orig-size="319,227" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="deep neural net" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/deep-neural-net.jpg?fit=300%2C213&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/deep-neural-net.jpg?fit=319%2C227&ssl=1" class="alignright wp-image-28779 size-medium" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/deep-neural-net.jpg?resize=300%2C213&ssl=1" alt="" width="300" height="213" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/deep-neural-net.jpg?resize=300%2C213&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/deep-neural-net.jpg?resize=150%2C107&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/deep-neural-net.jpg?w=319&ssl=1 319w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a> A deep learning neural net algorithm is given massive volumes of data, and a task to perform – such as classification. The resulting model is capable of solving complex tasks such as recognizing objects within an image and translating speech in real time. In reality, the neural net is a logical concept that gets mapped onto a physical set of specialized processors. See <a href="https://deeplizard.com/learn/video/6stDhEA0wFQ">here</a>.)</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Data Science</em> – a new field of computer science. Broadly it encompasses data systems and processes aimed at maintaining data sets and deriving meaning out of them. In the context of AI, it’s the practice of people who are doing machine learning.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Data Scientists</em> – responsible for extracting insights that help businesses make decisions. They explore and analyze data using machine learning platforms to create models about customers, processes, risks, or whatever they’re trying to predict.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>What’s Different? Why is Machine Learning Possible Now?<br /> </strong>To understand why AI/Machine Learning can do these things, let’s compare them to computers before AI came on the scene. (Warning – <em>simplified</em> examples below.)</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Classic Computers</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;">For the last 75 years computers (we’ll call these <em>classic computers) </em>have both shrunk to pocket size (iPhones) and grown to the size of warehouses (cloud data centers), yet they all continued to operate essentially the same way.<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Programming-v3-1.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28922" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/programming-v3-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Programming-v3-1.jpg?fit=691%2C383&ssl=1" data-orig-size="691,383" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Programming v3" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Programming-v3-1.jpg?fit=300%2C166&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Programming-v3-1.jpg?fit=468%2C259&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28922" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Programming-v3-1.jpg?resize=468%2C259&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="259" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Programming-v3-1.jpg?w=691&ssl=1 691w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Programming-v3-1.jpg?resize=300%2C166&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Programming-v3-1.jpg?resize=150%2C83&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Classic Computers – Programming<br /> </em>Classic computers are designed to do anything a human <em>explicitly tells them to do</em>. People (programmers) write software code (programming) to develop applications, thinking a priori about all the rules, logic and knowledge that need to be built in to an application so that it can deliver a specific result. These rules are explicitly coded into a program using a software language (Python, JavaScript, C#, Rust, …).</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Classic Computers – Compiling<br /> </em>The code is then <em>compiled</em> using software to translate the programmer’s source code into a version that can be run on a target computer/browser/phone. For most of today’s programs, the computer used to develop and compile the code does not have to be that much faster than the one that will run it.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Classic Computers – Running/Executing Programs<br /> </em>Once a program is coded and compiled, it can be deployed and run (executed) on a desktop computer, phone, in a browser window, a data center cluster, in special hardware, etc. Programs/applications can be games, social media, office applications, missile guidance systems, bitcoin mining, or even operating systems e.g. Linux, Windows, IOS. These programs run on the same type of classic computer architectures they were programmed in.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Running-Programs.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28788" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/running-programs/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Running-Programs.jpg?fit=945%2C431&ssl=1" data-orig-size="945,431" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Running Programs" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Running-Programs.jpg?fit=300%2C137&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Running-Programs.jpg?fit=468%2C213&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28788 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Running-Programs.jpg?resize=468%2C213&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="213" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Running-Programs.jpg?w=945&ssl=1 945w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Running-Programs.jpg?resize=300%2C137&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Running-Programs.jpg?resize=150%2C68&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Running-Programs.jpg?resize=768%2C350&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>Classic Computers – Software Updates, New Features<br /> </em>For programs written for classic computers, software developers receive bug reports, monitor for security breaches, and send out regular software updates that fix bugs, increase performance and at times add new features.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Classic Computers- Hardware<br /> </em>The CPUs (Central Processing Units) that write and run these Classic Computer applications all have the same basic design (architecture). The CPUs are designed to handle a wide range of tasks quickly in a <em>serial </em>fashion. These CPUs range from Intel X86 chips, and the ARM cores on Apple M1 SoC, to the z15 in IBM mainframes.</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong><em>Machine Learning</em></strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;">In contrast to programming on classic computing with fixed rules, machine learning is just like it sounds – we can train/teach a computer to “learn by example” by feeding it lots and lots of examples. (For images a rule of thumb is that a machine learning algorithm needs at least 5,000 labeled examples of each category in order to produce an AI model with decent performance.) Once it is trained, the computer runs on its own and can make predictions and/or complex decisions.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Just as traditional programming has three steps – first <em>coding</em> a program, next <em>compiling</em> it and then <em>running</em> it – machine learning also has three steps: <em>training</em> (teaching), <em>pruning</em> and <em>inference</em> (predicting by itself.)</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Machine Learning – Training<br /> </em>Unlike programing classic computers with explicit rules, training is the process of “teaching” a computer to perform a task e.g. recognize faces, signals, understand text, etc. (Now you know why you’re asked to click on images of traffic lights, cross walks, stop signs, and buses or type the text of scanned image in<a href="https://www.google.com/recaptcha/about/"> ReCaptcha</a>.) Humans provide massive volumes of “training data” (the more data, the better the model’s performance) and select the appropriate algorithm to find the best optimized outcome. (See the detailed “<a href="#machine-learning-pipeline">machine learning pipeline</a>” section for the gory details.)<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Training-with-silicon-and-frameworks.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28783" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/training-with-silicon-and-frameworks/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Training-with-silicon-and-frameworks.jpg?fit=880%2C552&ssl=1" data-orig-size="880,552" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Training with silicon and frameworks" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Training-with-silicon-and-frameworks.jpg?fit=300%2C188&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Training-with-silicon-and-frameworks.jpg?fit=468%2C294&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28783 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Training-with-silicon-and-frameworks.jpg?resize=468%2C294&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="294" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Training-with-silicon-and-frameworks.jpg?w=880&ssl=1 880w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Training-with-silicon-and-frameworks.jpg?resize=300%2C188&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Training-with-silicon-and-frameworks.jpg?resize=150%2C94&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Training-with-silicon-and-frameworks.jpg?resize=768%2C482&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">By running an algorithm selected by a data scientist on a set of training data, the Machine Learning system generates the rules embedded in a trained model. <em>The system learns from examples </em>(training data), rather than being explicitly programmed. (See the “Types of Machine Learning” section for more detail.) This self-correction is pretty cool. An input to a neural net results in a guess about what that input is. The neural net then takes its guess and compares it to a ground-truth about the data, effectively asking an expert “Did I get this right?” The difference between the network’s guess and the ground truth is its <em>error</em>. The network measures that error, and walks the error back over its model, adjusting weights to the extent that they contributed to the error.)</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Just to make the point again: <em>The algorithms combined with the training data – not external human computer programmers – create the rules that the AI uses</em>. The resulting model is capable of solving complex tasks such as recognizing objects it’s never seen before, translating text or speech, or controlling a drone swarm.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">(Instead of building a model from scratch you can now buy<em>, </em>for common machine learning tasks, <em>pretrained models</em> <a href="https://modelzoo.co/">from others</a> and <a href="https://aws.amazon.com/marketplace/solutions/machine-learning/pre-trained-models">here</a>, much like chip designers buying <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_intellectual_property_core">IP Cores</a>.)</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Machine Learning Training – Hardware<br /> </em>Training a machine learning model is a <u>very</u> computationally intensive task. AI hardware must be able to perform thousands of multiplications and additions in a mathematical process called matrix multiplication. It requires specialized chips to run fast. (See the <a href="#semiconductor section">AI semiconductor section</a> for details.)</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Machine Learning – Simplification via pruning, quantization, distillation<br /> </em>Just like classic computer code needs to be compiled and optimized before it is deployed on its target hardware, the machine learning models are simplified and modified (<a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/pruning-neural-networks-1bb3ab5791f9">pruned</a>) to use less computing power, energy, and memory before they’re deployed to run on their hardware.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Machine Learning – Inference Phase<br /> </em>Once the system has been trained it can be copied to other devices and run. And the computing hardware can now make inferences (predictions) on new data that the model has never seen before.<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Inference-with-silicon.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28784" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/inference-with-silicon/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Inference-with-silicon.jpg?fit=748%2C530&ssl=1" data-orig-size="748,530" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Inference with silicon" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Inference-with-silicon.jpg?fit=300%2C213&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Inference-with-silicon.jpg?fit=468%2C332&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28784 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Inference-with-silicon.jpg?resize=468%2C332&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="332" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Inference-with-silicon.jpg?w=748&ssl=1 748w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Inference-with-silicon.jpg?resize=300%2C213&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Inference-with-silicon.jpg?resize=150%2C106&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Inference can even occur locally on edge devices where physical devices meet the digital world (routers, sensors, IOT devices), close to the source of where the data is generated. This reduces network bandwidth issues and eliminates latency issues.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Machine Learning Inference – Hardware<br /> </em>Inference (running the model) requires substantially less compute power than training. But inference also benefits from specialized AI chips. (See the AI <a href="#semiconductor section">semiconductor section</a> for details.)</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Machine Learning – Performance Monitoring and Retraining<br /> </em>Just like classic computers where software developers do regular software updates to fix bugs and increase performance and add features, machine learning models also need to be updated regularly by adding new data to the old training pipelines and running them again. Why?</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Over time machine learning models get stale. Their real-world performance generally degrades over time if they are not updated regularly with new training data that matches the changing state of the world. The models need to be monitored and retrained regularly for <a href="https://evidentlyai.com/blog/machine-learning-monitoring-data-and-concept-drift">data and/or concept drift</a>, harmful predictions, performance drops, etc. To stay up to date, the models need to re-learn the patterns by looking at the most recent data that better reflects reality.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Classic-Computing-vs-Machine-Learning.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28930" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/classic-computing-vs-machine-learning/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Classic-Computing-vs-Machine-Learning.jpg?fit=1895%2C842&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1895,842" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Classic Computing vs Machine Learning" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Classic-Computing-vs-Machine-Learning.jpg?fit=300%2C133&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Classic-Computing-vs-Machine-Learning.jpg?fit=468%2C208&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28930" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Classic-Computing-vs-Machine-Learning.jpg?resize=468%2C208&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="208" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Classic-Computing-vs-Machine-Learning.jpg?w=1895&ssl=1 1895w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Classic-Computing-vs-Machine-Learning.jpg?resize=300%2C133&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Classic-Computing-vs-Machine-Learning.jpg?resize=1024%2C455&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Classic-Computing-vs-Machine-Learning.jpg?resize=150%2C67&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Classic-Computing-vs-Machine-Learning.jpg?resize=768%2C341&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Classic-Computing-vs-Machine-Learning.jpg?resize=1536%2C682&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Classic-Computing-vs-Machine-Learning.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Classic-Computing-vs-Machine-Learning.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>One Last Thing – “Verifiability/Explainability”<br /> </em>Understanding how an AI works is essential to fostering trust and confidence in AI production models.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Neural Networks and Deep Learning differ from other types of Machine Learning algorithms in that they have low explainability. They can generate a prediction, but it is very <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00858-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">difficult to understand or explain</a> how it arrived at its prediction. This “explainability problem” is often described as a problem for all of AI, but it’s primarily a problem for Neural Networks and Deep Learning. Other types of Machine Learning algorithms – for example <a href="https://www.unite.ai/what-is-a-decision-tree/">decision trees</a> or <a href="https://www.kdnuggets.com/2019/12/explainability-black-box-part1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">linear regression</a>– have very high explainability. The results of the five-year <a href="https://www.darpa.mil/program/explainable-artificial-intelligence" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DARPA Explainable AI Program (XAI)</a> are worth reading <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ail2.61">here</a>.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/DARPA-explainable-AI.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28796" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/darpa-explainable-ai/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/DARPA-explainable-AI.jpg?fit=2258%2C1269&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2258,1269" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="DARPA explainable AI" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/DARPA-explainable-AI.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/DARPA-explainable-AI.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-28796" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/DARPA-explainable-AI.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/DARPA-explainable-AI.jpg?resize=1024%2C575&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/DARPA-explainable-AI.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/DARPA-explainable-AI.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/DARPA-explainable-AI.jpg?resize=768%2C432&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/DARPA-explainable-AI.jpg?resize=1536%2C863&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/DARPA-explainable-AI.jpg?resize=2048%2C1151&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/DARPA-explainable-AI.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/DARPA-explainable-AI.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>So What Can Machine Learning Do?</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;">It’s taken decades but as of today, on its simplest implementations, machine learning applications can do some tasks better and/or faster than humans. Machine Learning is most advanced and widely applied today in processing text (through Natural Language Processing) followed by understanding images and videos (through Computer Vision) and analytics and anomaly detection. For example:</p> <p><strong>Recognize and Understand Text/Natural Language Processing</strong><br /> <a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/voice-recognition.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28801" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/voice-recognition/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/voice-recognition.jpg?fit=293%2C165&ssl=1" data-orig-size="293,165" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="voice recognition" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/voice-recognition.jpg?fit=293%2C165&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/voice-recognition.jpg?fit=293%2C165&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-28801" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/voice-recognition.jpg?resize=43%2C24&ssl=1" alt="" width="43" height="24" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/voice-recognition.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/voice-recognition.jpg?w=293&ssl=1 293w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 43px) 100vw, 43px" /></a>AI is better than humans on basic reading comprehension benchmarks like <a href="https://super.gluebenchmark.com/">SuperGLUE</a> and <a href="https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/">SQuAD</a> and their performance on complex linguistic tasks is almost there<strong>. </strong>Applications: <a href="https://openai.com/blog/gpt-3-apps/">GPT-3</a>, <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/meet-m6-10-trillion-parameters-at-1-gpt-3s-energy-cost-997092cbe5e8">M6</a>, <a href="https://ai.facebook.com/blog/democratizing-access-to-large-scale-language-models-with-opt-175b/">OPT-175B</a>, <a href="https://translate.google.com/">Google Translate</a>, Gmail Autocomplete, Chatbots, Text summarization.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Write Human-like Answers to Questions and Assist in Writing Computer Code</strong><br /> <a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/recognize.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28804" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/recognize/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/recognize.jpg?fit=197%2C195&ssl=1" data-orig-size="197,195" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="recognize" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/recognize.jpg?fit=197%2C195&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/recognize.jpg?fit=197%2C195&ssl=1" class=" wp-image-28804 alignleft" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/recognize.jpg?resize=34%2C33&ssl=1" alt="" width="34" height="33" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/recognize.jpg?resize=150%2C148&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/recognize.jpg?w=197&ssl=1 197w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 34px) 100vw, 34px" /></a>An AI can write original text that is indistinguishable from that created by humans. Examples <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/15/magazine/ai-language.html">GPT-3</a>, <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/gpt-3-scared-you-meet-wu-dao-2-0-a-monster-of-1-75-trillion-parameters-832cd83db484">Wu Dao 2.0</a> or generate computer code. Example <a href="https://copilot.github.com/">GitHub Copilot</a>, <a href="https://www.wordtune.com/">Wordtune</a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Recognize and Understand Images and video streams</strong><br /> <a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/think.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28807" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/think/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/think.jpg?fit=180%2C249&ssl=1" data-orig-size="180,249" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="think" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/think.jpg?fit=180%2C249&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/think.jpg?fit=180%2C249&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-28807" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/think.jpg?resize=30%2C42&ssl=1" alt="" width="30" height="42" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/think.jpg?resize=108%2C150&ssl=1 108w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/think.jpg?w=180&ssl=1 180w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 30px) 100vw, 30px" /></a>An AI can see and understand what it sees. It can identify and detect an object or a feature in an image or video. It can even identify faces. It can scan news broadcasts or read and assess text that appears in videos. It has uses in threat detection – airport security, banks, and sporting events. In medicine to <a href="https://thegradient.pub/the-role-of-deep-learning-in-understanding-neuroimaging-data/">interpret MRI’s</a> or to <a href="https://openreview.net/pdf?id=ZTsoE8G3GG">design drugs</a>. And in retail to scan and analyze in-store imagery to intuitively determine inventory movement. Examples of ImageNet benchmarks <a href="https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet">here</a> and <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C1aJ9TVVCYDvRHsf3i8fhFCm7UhjqO1J7AWoSXyM--U/edit#gid=586400223https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C1aJ9TVVCYDvRHsf3i8fhFCm7UhjqO1J7AWoSXyM--U/edit">here</a></p> <p><strong>Turn 2D Images into 3D Rendered Scenes<br /> </strong>AI using “NeRFs “<a href="https://www.matthewtancik.com/nerf">neural radiance fields</a>” can take 2d snapshots and render a finished 3D scene in realtime to create avatars or scenes for virtual worlds, to capture video conference participants and their environments in 3D, or to reconstruct scenes for 3D digital maps. The technology is an enabler of the metaverse, generating digital representations of real environments that creators can modify and build on. And <a href="https://waymo.com/research/block-nerf/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">self driving cars are using NeRF’s</a> to render city-scale scenes spanning multiple blocks.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Detect Changes in Patterns/Recognize Anomalies<br /> </strong>An AI can recognize patterns which don’t match the behaviors expected for a particular system, out of millions of <a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/detect.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28803" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/detect/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/detect.jpg?fit=205%2C219&ssl=1" data-orig-size="205,219" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="detect" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/detect.jpg?fit=205%2C219&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/detect.jpg?fit=205%2C219&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-28803" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/detect.jpg?resize=26%2C28&ssl=1" alt="" width="26" height="28" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/detect.jpg?resize=140%2C150&ssl=1 140w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/detect.jpg?w=205&ssl=1 205w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 26px) 100vw, 26px" /></a>different inputs or transactions. These applications can discover evidence of an attack on financial networks, fraud detection in insurance filings or credit card purchases; identify fake reviews; even tag sensor data in industrial facilities that mean there’s a safety issue. Examples <a href="https://www.dynatrace.com/platform/artificial-intelligence/anomaly-detection/">here</a>, <a href="https://nnaisense.com/technology/">here</a> and <a href="https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/services/cognitive-services/anomaly-detector/#features">here</a>.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Power Recommendation Engines</strong><br /> <a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/recommend.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28802" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/recommend/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/recommend.jpg?fit=210%2C298&ssl=1" data-orig-size="210,298" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="recommend" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/recommend.jpg?fit=210%2C298&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/recommend.jpg?fit=210%2C298&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-28802" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/recommend.jpg?resize=27%2C38&ssl=1" alt="" width="27" height="38" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/recommend.jpg?resize=106%2C150&ssl=1 106w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/recommend.jpg?w=210&ssl=1 210w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 27px) 100vw, 27px" /></a>An AI can provide recommendations based on user behaviors used in ecommerce to provide accurate suggestions of products to users for future purchases based on their shopping history. Examples: <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/deep-dive-into-netflixs-recommender-system-341806ae3b48" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Netflix</a>, <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/why-tiktok-made-its-user-so-obsessive-the-ai-algorithm-that-got-you-hooked-7895bb1ab423" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TikTok</a>, <a href="https://www.crossingminds.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CrossingMinds</a> and <a href="https://cloud.google.com/recommendations" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Recommendations AI</a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Recognize and Understand Your Voice</strong><br /> <a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/voice-recognition.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28801" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/voice-recognition/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/voice-recognition.jpg?fit=293%2C165&ssl=1" data-orig-size="293,165" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="voice recognition" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/voice-recognition.jpg?fit=293%2C165&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/voice-recognition.jpg?fit=293%2C165&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-28801" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/voice-recognition.jpg?resize=46%2C26&ssl=1" alt="" width="46" height="26" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/voice-recognition.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/voice-recognition.jpg?w=293&ssl=1 293w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 46px) 100vw, 46px" /></a>An AI can understand spoken language. Then it can comprehend what is being said and in what context. This can enable chatbots to have a conversation with people. It can record and transcribe meetings.<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Hey-Siri.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28854" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/hey-siri/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Hey-Siri.jpg?fit=175%2C97&ssl=1" data-orig-size="175,97" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Hey Siri" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Hey-Siri.jpg?fit=175%2C97&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Hey-Siri.jpg?fit=175%2C97&ssl=1" class="alignright wp-image-28854" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Hey-Siri.jpg?resize=87%2C48&ssl=1" alt="" width="87" height="48" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Hey-Siri.jpg?resize=150%2C83&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Hey-Siri.jpg?w=175&ssl=1 175w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 87px) 100vw, 87px" /></a> (Some versions can even read lips to increase accuracy.) Applications: Siri/Alexa/Google Assistant. Example <a href="https://paperswithcode.com/task/speech-recognition/latest">here</a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Create Artificial Images<br /> </strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/eye-crop.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28814" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/eye-crop/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/eye-crop.jpg?fit=1658%2C1190&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1658,1190" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="eye crop" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/eye-crop.jpg?fit=300%2C215&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/eye-crop.jpg?fit=468%2C336&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-28814" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/eye-crop.jpg?resize=35%2C26&ssl=1" alt="" width="35" height="26" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/eye-crop.jpg?resize=150%2C108&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/eye-crop.jpg?resize=300%2C215&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/eye-crop.jpg?resize=1024%2C735&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/eye-crop.jpg?resize=768%2C551&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/eye-crop.jpg?resize=1536%2C1102&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/eye-crop.jpg?w=1658&ssl=1 1658w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/eye-crop.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/eye-crop.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 35px) 100vw, 35px" /></a>AI can create artificial images (<a href="https://warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/deep-fakes/">DeepFakes</a>) that are indistinguishable from real ones using <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generative_adversarial_network">Generative Adversarial Networks</a>. Useful in entertainment, virtual worlds, gaming, fashion design, etc. Synthetic faces are now indistinguishable and more trustworthy than photos of real people. Paper <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2120481119">here</a>.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Create Artist Quality Illustrations from A Written Description<br /> </strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/brain.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28809" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/brain/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/brain.jpg?fit=248%2C153&ssl=1" data-orig-size="248,153" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="brain" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/brain.jpg?fit=248%2C153&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/brain.jpg?fit=248%2C153&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-28809" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/brain.jpg?resize=39%2C24&ssl=1" alt="" width="39" height="24" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/brain.jpg?resize=150%2C93&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/brain.jpg?w=248&ssl=1 248w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 39px) 100vw, 39px" /></a>AI can generate images from text descriptions, creating anthropomorphized versions of animals and objects, combining unrelated concepts in plausible ways. An example application is <a href="https://openai.com/blog/dall-e/">Dall-E</a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Generative Design of Physical Products<br /> </strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/robot.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28811" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/robot/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/robot.jpg?fit=266%2C240&ssl=1" data-orig-size="266,240" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="robot" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/robot.jpg?fit=266%2C240&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/robot.jpg?fit=266%2C240&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-28811" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/robot.jpg?resize=47%2C42&ssl=1" alt="" width="47" height="42" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/robot.jpg?resize=150%2C135&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/robot.jpg?w=266&ssl=1 266w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 47px) 100vw, 47px" /></a>Engineers can input design goals into AI-driven <a href="https://www.wired.com/brandlab/2019/08/machine-learning-takes-guesswork-design-optimization/">generative design software</a>, along with parameters such as performance or spatial requirements, materials, manufacturing methods, and cost constraints. The software explores all the possible permutations of a solution, quickly generating design alternatives. Example <a href="https://www.autodesk.com/solutions/generative-design">here</a>.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Sentiment</strong><strong> Analysis</strong><br /> <a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/sentiment-analysis.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28812" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/sentiment-analysis/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/sentiment-analysis.jpg?fit=244%2C229&ssl=1" data-orig-size="244,229" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="sentiment analysis" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/sentiment-analysis.jpg?fit=244%2C229&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/sentiment-analysis.jpg?fit=244%2C229&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-28812" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/sentiment-analysis.jpg?resize=25%2C24&ssl=1" alt="" width="25" height="24" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/sentiment-analysis.jpg?resize=150%2C141&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/sentiment-analysis.jpg?w=244&ssl=1 244w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 25px) 100vw, 25px" /></a>An AI leverages deep natural language processing, text analysis, and computational linguistics to gain insight into customer opinion, <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/sentiment-analysis-concept-analysis-and-applications-6c94d6f58c17">understanding of consumer sentiment</a>, and measuring the impact of marketing strategies. Examples: <a href="https://brand24.com/">Brand24</a>, <a href="https://monkeylearn.com/">MonkeyLearn</a></p> <div style="background-color: #ededed;"> <div style="border: 1px solid black; padding: 16px;"> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong><em>What Does this Mean for Businesses?</em></strong></h3> <p><em>Skip this section if you’re interested in national security applications</em></p> <p>Hang on to your seat. We’re just at the beginning of the revolution. The next phase of AI, powered by ever increasing powerful AI hardware and cloud clusters, will combine some of these basic algorithms into applications that do things no human can. It will transform business and defense in ways that will create new applications and opportunities.</p> <p><strong>Human-Machine Teaming<br /> </strong>Applications with embedded intelligence have already begun to appear thanks to massive language models. For example – <a href="https://marketplace.visualstudio.com/items?itemName=GitHub.copilot">Copilot as a pair-programmer</a> in Microsoft Visual Studio VSCode. It’s not hard to imagine <a href="https://openai.com/dall-e-2/">DALL-E 2</a> as an illustration assistant in a photo editing application, or <a href="https://gpt3demo.com/category/ai-writing-assistants">GPT-3 as a writing assistant</a> in Google Docs.</p> <p><strong>AI in Medicine<br /> </strong>AI applications are already appearing in radiology, dermatology, and oncology. Examples: <a href="https://www.digitaldiagnostics.com/products/eye-disease/idx-dr/">IDx-DR</a>,<a href="https://imagen.ai/">OsteoDetect</a>, <a href="https://www.empatica.com/embrace2/">Embrace2</a>. AI Medical image identification can automatically detect lesions, and tumors with diagnostics equal to or greater than humans. For Pharma, AI will power <a href="https://openreview.net/pdf?id=ZTsoE8G3GG">drug discovery design</a> for finding new drug candidates. The FDA has a plan for approving AI software <a href="https://www.fda.gov/media/145022/download">here</a> and a list of AI-enabled medical devices <a href="https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/software-medical-device-samd/artificial-intelligence-and-machine-learning-aiml-enabled-medical-devices">here</a>.</p> <p><strong>Autonomous Vehicles<br /> </strong>Harder than it first seemed, but car companies like <a href="https://www.tesla.com/support/full-self-driving-computer">Tesla</a> will eventually get better than human autonomy for highway driving and eventually city streets.</p> <p><strong>Decision support<br /> </strong>Advanced virtual assistants can listen to and observe behaviors, build and maintain data models, and predict and recommend actions to assist people with and automate tasks that were previously only possible for humans to accomplish.</p> <p><strong>Supply chain management<br /> </strong>AI applications are already appearing in predictive maintenance, risk management, procurement, order fulfillment, supply chain planning and promotion management.</p> <p><strong>Marketing<br /> </strong>AI applications are already appearing in real-time personalization, content and media optimization and campaign orchestration to augment, streamline and automate marketing processes and tasks constrained by human costs and capability, and to uncover new customer insights and accelerate deployment at scale.</p> <p><strong>Making business smarter</strong><strong>: Customer Support<br /> </strong>AI applications are already appearing in virtual customer assistants with speech recognition, sentiment analysis, automated/augmented quality assurance and other technologies providing customers with 24/7 self- and assisted-service options across channels.</p> </div> </div> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>AI in National Security</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Much like the dual-use/dual-nature of classical computers AI developed for commercial applications can also be used for national security.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>AI/ML and Ubiquitous Technical Surveillance<br /> </strong>AI/ML have made most cities <a href="https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/210113_Intelligence_Edge.pdf">untenable for traditional tradecraft</a>. Machine learning can integrate travel data (customs, airline, train, car rental, hotel, license plate readers…,) integrate feeds from CCTV cameras for facial recognition and gait recognition, breadcrumbs from wireless devices and then combine it with DNA sampling. The result is automated persistent surveillance.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">China’s employment of <a href="https://giswatch.org/node/6165">AI as a tool of repression and surveillance</a> of the Uyghurs is a reminder of a dystopian future of how totalitarian regimes will use AI-enabled ubiquitous surveillance to repress and monitor its own populace.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>AI/ML on the Battlefield<br /> </strong>AI will enable new levels of performance and autonomy for weapon systems. <em>Autonomously collaborating assets</em> (e.g., drone swarms, ground vehicles) that can coordinate attacks, ISR missions, & more.<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/overhead-image.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28830" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/overhead-image/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/overhead-image.jpg?fit=180%2C134&ssl=1" data-orig-size="180,134" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="overhead image" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/overhead-image.jpg?fit=180%2C134&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/overhead-image.jpg?fit=180%2C134&ssl=1" class="alignright size-full wp-image-28830" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/overhead-image.jpg?resize=180%2C134&ssl=1" alt="" width="180" height="134" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/overhead-image.jpg?w=180&ssl=1 180w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/overhead-image.jpg?resize=150%2C112&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 180px) 100vw, 180px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Fusing and making sense of sensor data</em> (detecting threats in optical /SAR imagery, classifying aircraft based on radar returns, searching for anomalies in radio frequency signatures, etc.) Machine learning is better and faster than humans in finding targets hidden in a high-clutter background. Automated target detection and fires from satellite/UAV.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">For example, an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) or Unmanned Ground Vehicles with on board AI edge computers could use deep learning to <a href="https://www.sbir.gov/node/1965509" target="_blank" rel="noopener">detect and locate concealed chemical, biological and explosive threats</a> by fusing imaging sensors and chemical/biological sensors.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Other examples include:</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Use AI/ML countermeasures against adversarial, low probability of intercept/low probability of detection <a href="https://www.sbir.gov/node/1965379">(LPI/LPD) radar techniques</a> in radar and communication systems.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Given sequences of observations of unknown radar waveforms from arbitrary emitters without a priori knowledge, <a href="https://www.sbir.gov/node/2214753">use machine learning to develop behavioral models to enable inference of radar intent and threat level</a>, and to enable prediction of future behaviors.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">For objects in space, <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2022/Apr/19/2002979820/-1/-1/1/AF_STTR_22.B.PDF">use machine learning to predict and characterize a spacecrafts possible actions</a>, its subsequent trajectory, and what threats it can pose from along that trajectory. Predict the outcomes of finite burn, continuous thrust, and impulsive maneuvers.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">AI empowers other applications such as:</p> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.navysbir.com/n22_1/N221-D02.htm">Flight Operations Planning Decision Aid Tool</a> for Strike Operations Aboard Aircraft Carriers</li> <li><a href="https://www.sbir.gov/node/2214701">Automated Battle management</a> – air and missile defense, army/navy tactical…</li> </ul> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>AI/ML in <em>Collection<br /> </em></strong>The front end of intelligence collection platforms has created a firehose of data that have overwhelmed human analysts. “Smart<em>” sensors</em> coupled with inference engines that can pre-process raw intelligence and prioritize what data to transmit and store –helpful in degraded or low-bandwidth environments.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Human-Machine Teaming in </strong><strong><em>Signals Intelligence<br /> </em></strong>Applications with embedded intelligence have already begun to appear in commercial applications thanks to massive language models. For example – <a href="https://marketplace.visualstudio.com/items?itemName=GitHub.copilot">Copilot as a pair-programmer</a> in Microsoft Visual Studio VSCode. It’s not hard to imagine an AI that can detect and isolate anomalies and other patterns of interest in all sorts of signal data faster and more reliably than human operators.<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SIGINT-terminals.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28856" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/sigint-terminals/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SIGINT-terminals.jpg?fit=189%2C126&ssl=1" data-orig-size="189,126" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="SIGINT terminals" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SIGINT-terminals.jpg?fit=189%2C126&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SIGINT-terminals.jpg?fit=189%2C126&ssl=1" class="alignright size-full wp-image-28856" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SIGINT-terminals.jpg?resize=189%2C126&ssl=1" alt="" width="189" height="126" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SIGINT-terminals.jpg?w=189&ssl=1 189w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SIGINT-terminals.jpg?resize=150%2C100&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 189px) 100vw, 189px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">AI-enabled natural language processing, computer vision, and audiovisual analysis can vastly reduce manual data processing. Advances in speech-to-text transcription and language analytics now enable reading comprehension, question answering, and automated summarization of large quantities of text. This not only prioritizes the work of human analysts, it’s a major force multiplier</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">AI can also be used to automate data conversion such as translations and decryptions, accelerating the ability to derive actionable insights.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Human-Machine Teaming in </strong><strong><em>Tasking and Dissemination<br /> </em></strong>AI-enabled systems will automate and optimize tasking and collection for platforms, sensors, and assets in near-real time in response to dynamic intelligence requirements or changes in the environment.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">AI will be able to automatically generate machine-readable versions of intelligence products and disseminate them at machine speed so that computer systems across the IC and the military can ingest and use them in real time without manual intervention.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Human-Machine Teaming in </strong><strong><em>Exploitation and Analytics<br /> </em></strong>AI-enabled tools can augment filtering, flagging, and triage across multiple data sets. They can identify connections and correlations more efficiently and at a greater scale than human analysts, and can flag those findings and the most important content for human analysis.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">AI can fuse data from multiple sources, types of intelligence, and classification levels to produce accurate predictive analysis in a way that is not currently possible. This can improve indications and warnings for military operations and active cyber defense.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>AI/ML <em>Information warfare<br /> </em></strong>Nation states have used AI systems to enhance disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks. This included using “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/03/16/1087062648/deepfake-video-zelenskyy-experts-war-manipulation-ukraine-russia">DeepFakes</a>” (fake videos generated by a neural network that are nearly indistinguishable from reality). They are harvesting data on Americans to build profiles of our beliefs, behavior, and biological makeup for tailored attempts to manipulate or coerce individuals.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">But because a large percentage of it is open-source AI is not limited to nation states, AI-powered cyber-attacks, deepfakes and AI software paired with commercially available drones can create “poor-man’s smart weapons” for use by rogue states, terrorists and criminals.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>AI/ML <em>Cyberwarfare<br /> </em></strong>AI-enabled malware can learn and adapt to a system’s defensive measures, by <em>probing a target system to look for system configuration and operational patterns and customize the attack payload to determine the most opportune time to execute the payload so to maximize the impact. </em>Conversely, AI-enabled cyber-defensive tools can proactively locate and address network anomalies and system vulnerabilities.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Threats-and-opportunities.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28827" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/ai-threats-and-opportunities/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Threats-and-opportunities.jpg?fit=903%2C403&ssl=1" data-orig-size="903,403" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="AI Threats and opportunities" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Threats-and-opportunities.jpg?fit=300%2C134&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Threats-and-opportunities.jpg?fit=468%2C209&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28827" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Threats-and-opportunities.jpg?resize=468%2C209&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="209" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Threats-and-opportunities.jpg?w=903&ssl=1 903w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Threats-and-opportunities.jpg?resize=300%2C134&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Threats-and-opportunities.jpg?resize=150%2C67&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Threats-and-opportunities.jpg?resize=768%2C343&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Attacks Against AI – <em>Adversarial AI<br /> </em></strong>As AI proliferates, defeating adversaries will be predicated on <a href="https://www.robustintelligence.com/">defeating their AI and vice versa</a>. As Neural Networks take over sensor processing and triage tasks, a human may only be alerted if the AI deems it suspicious. Therefore, we only need to defeat the AI to evade detection, not necessarily a human.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Adversarial attacks against AI fall into three types:</p> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214212620308620#b9">Data misclassification</a>– to generate <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.06974" target="_blank" rel="noopener">false positive or negative</a> results</li> <li>Synthetic data generation-to feed false information</li> <li>Data analysis – for AI-assisted classical attack generation</li> </ul> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/panda-plus-noise-1.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28859" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/panda-plus-noise-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/panda-plus-noise-1.jpg?fit=521%2C193&ssl=1" data-orig-size="521,193" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="panda plus noise" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/panda-plus-noise-1.jpg?fit=300%2C111&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/panda-plus-noise-1.jpg?fit=468%2C173&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28859" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/panda-plus-noise-1.jpg?resize=468%2C173&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="173" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/panda-plus-noise-1.jpg?w=521&ssl=1 521w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/panda-plus-noise-1.jpg?resize=300%2C111&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/panda-plus-noise-1.jpg?resize=150%2C56&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></em></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>AI Attack Surfaces<br /> </em>Electronic Attack (EA), Electronic Protection (EP), Electronic Support (ES) all have analogues in the AI algorithmic domain<em>. </em>In the future, we may play the same game about the “Algorithmic Spectrum,” denying our adversaries their AI capabilities while defending ours<em>. </em>Other can steal or poison our models or manipulate our training data.</p> <div style="background-color: #ededed;"> <div style="border: 1px solid black; padding: 16px;"> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong><em>What Makes</em></strong><strong> AI Possible Now?</strong></h3> <p><strong> </strong>Four changes make Machine Learning possible now:<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Why-AI-Now.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28786" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/why-ai-now/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Why-AI-Now.jpg?fit=678%2C363&ssl=1" data-orig-size="678,363" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Why AI Now" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Why-AI-Now.jpg?fit=300%2C161&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Why-AI-Now.jpg?fit=468%2C251&ssl=1" class="alignright wp-image-28786 " src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Why-AI-Now.jpg?resize=253%2C136&ssl=1" alt="" width="253" height="136" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Why-AI-Now.jpg?resize=300%2C161&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Why-AI-Now.jpg?resize=150%2C80&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Why-AI-Now.jpg?w=678&ssl=1 678w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 253px) 100vw, 253px" /></a></p> <ol> <li>Massive Data Sets</li> <li>Improved Machine Learning algorithms</li> <li>Open-Source Code, Pretrained Models and Frameworks</li> <li>More computing power</li> </ol> <p><em>Massive Data Sets<br /> </em>Machine Learning algorithms tend to require large quantities of training data in order to produce high-performance AI models. (Training OpenAI’s GPT-3 Natural Language Model with 175 billion parameters takes 1,024 <a href="https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/a100/">Nvidia A100 GPUs</a> more than one month.) Today, strategic and tactical sensors pour in a firehose of images, signals and other data. Billions of computers, digital devices and sensors connected to the Internet, producing and storing large volumes of data, which provide other sources of intelligence. For example facial recognition requires millions of labeled images of faces for training data.</p> <p>Of course more data only helps if the data is relevant to your desired application. Training data needs to match the real-world operational data very, very closely to train a high-performing AI model.</p> <p><em>Improved Machine Learning algorithms<br /> </em>The first Machine Learning algorithms are decades old, and some remain incredibly useful. However, researchers have discovered new algorithms that have greatly sped up the fields cutting-edge. These new algorithms have made Machine Learning models more flexible, more robust, and more capable of solving different types of problems.</p> <p><em>Open-Source Code, Pretrained Models and Frameworks<br /> </em>Previously, developing Machine Learning systems required a lot of expertise and custom software development that made it out of reach for most organizations. Now open-source code libraries and developer tools allow organizations to use and build upon the work of external communities. No team or organization has to start from scratch, and many parts that used to require highly specialized expertise have been automated. Even non-experts and beginners can create useful AI tools. In some cases, open-source ML models can be entirely reused and purchased. Combined with standard competitions, open source, pretrained models and frameworks have moved the field forward faster than any federal lab or contractor. It’s been a feeding frenzy with the best and brightest researchers trying to one-up each other to prove which ideas are best.</p> <p>The downside is that, unlike past DoD technology development – where the DoD leads it, can control it, and has the most advanced technology (like stealth and electronic warfare), in most cases the DoD will not have the most advanced algorithms or models. The analogy for AI is closer to microelectronics than it is EW. The path forward for the DoD should be supporting open research, but optimizing on data set collection, harvesting research results, and fast application.<em> </em></p> <p><em>More computing power – special chips<br /> </em>Machine Learning systems require a lot of computing power. Today, it’s possible to run Machine Learning algorithms on massive datasets using commodity Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). While many of the AI performance improvements have been due to human cleverness on better models and algorithms, most of the performance gains have been the massive increase in compute performance. (See the <a href="#semiconductor section">semiconductor section</a>.)</p> <p><em>More computing power – AI In the Cloud<br /> </em>The rapid growth in the size of machine learning models has been achieved by the move to large data center clusters. The size of machine learning models are limited by time to train them. For example, in training images, the size of the model scales with the number of pixels in an image. ImageNet Model sizes are 224×224 pixels. But HD (1920×1080) images require 40x more computation/memory. Large Natural Language Processing models – e.g. summarizing articles, English-to-Chinese translation like OpenAI’s GPT-3 require enormous models. GPT-3 uses 175 billion parameters and was trained on a cluster with 1,024 <a href="https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/a100/">Nvidia A100 GPUs</a> that cost ~$25 million! (Which is why large clusters exist in the cloud, or the largest companies/ government agencies.) <a href="https://ai.facebook.com/blog/dlrm-an-advanced-open-source-deep-learning-recommendation-model/">Facebook’s Deep Learning and Recommendation Model</a> (DLRM) was trained on 1TB data and has 24 billion parameters. Some cloud vendors train on >10TB data sets.</p> <p>Instead of investing in massive amounts of computers needed for training companies can use the enormous on-demand, off-premises hardware in the cloud (e.g. Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure) for both training machine learning models and deploying inferences.</p> </div> </div> <p><strong>We’re Just Getting Started<br /> </strong>Progress in AI has been growing exponentially. The next 10 years will see a massive improvement on AI inference and training capabilities. This will require regular refreshes of the hardware– on the chip and cloud clusters – to take advantage. This is the AI version of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law">Moore’s Law</a> on steroids – applications that are completely infeasible today will be easy in 5 years.</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>What Can’t AI Do? </strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;">While AI can do a lot of things better than humans when focused on a narrow objective, there are many things it still can’t do. AI works well in specific domain where you have lots of data, time/resources to train, domain expertise to set the right goals/rewards during training, but that is not always the case.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">For example AI models are only as good as the fidelity and quality of the training data. Having bad labels can wreak havoc on your training results. Protecting the integrity of the training data is critical.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">In addition, AI is easily fooled by out-of-domain data (things it hasn’t seen before). This can happen by “overfitting” – when a model trains for too long on sample data or when the model is too complex, it can start to learn the “noise,” or irrelevant information, within the dataset. When the model memorizes the noise and fits too closely to the training set, the model becomes “<a href="https://www.ibm.com/cloud/learn/overfitting">overfitted</a>,” and it is unable to generalize well to new data. If a model cannot generalize well to new data, then it will not be able to perform the classification or prediction tasks it was intended for. However, if you pause too early or exclude too many important features, you may encounter the opposite problem, and instead, you may “underfit” your model. Underfitting occurs when the model has not trained for enough time, or the input variables are not significant enough to determine a meaningful relationship between the input and output variables.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">AI is also poor at estimating uncertainty /confidence (and explaining its decision-making). It can’t choose its own goals. (Executives need to define the decision that the AI will execute. Without well-defined decisions to be made, data scientists will waste time, energy and money.) Except for simple cases an AI can’t (yet) figure out cause and effect or why something happened. It can’t think creatively or apply common sense.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">AI is not very good at creating a strategy (unless it can pull from previous examples and mimic them, but then fails with the unexpected.) And it lacks generalized intelligence e.g. that can generalize knowledge and translate learning across domains.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">All of these are research topics actively being worked on. Solving these will take a combination of high-performance computing, advanced AI/ML semiconductors, creative machine learning implementations and <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/data-science-vs-decision-science-8f8d53ce25da">decision science</a>. Some may be solved in the next decade, at least to a level where a human can’t tell the difference.</p> <div style="background-color: #ededed;"> <div style="border: 1px solid black; padding: 16px;"> <h3><strong>Where is AI in Business Going Next?</strong></h3> <p><em>Skip this section if you’re interested in national security applications</em></p> <p>Just as classic computers were applied to a broad set of business, science and military applications, AI is doing the same. AI is exploding not only in research and infrastructure (which go wide) but also in the application of AI to vertical problems (which go deep and depend more than ever on expertise). Some of the new applications on the horizon include Human AI/Teaming (AI helping in programming and decision making), smarter robotics and autonomous vehicles, AI-driven drug discovery and design, healthcare diagnostics, chip <a href="https://openreview.net/forum?id=oIhzg4GJeOf">electronic design automation</a>, and basic science research.</p> <p>Advances in language understanding are being pursued to create systems that can summarize complex inputs and engage through human-like conversation, a critical component of next-generation teaming.</p> </div> </div> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Where is AI and National Security Going Next?</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;">In the near future AI may be able to predict the future actions an adversary could take and the actions a friendly force could take to counter these. The 20th century model loop of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OODA_loop" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Observe–Orient–Decide and Act (OODA)</a> is retrospective; an observation cannot be made until after the event has occurred. An AI-enabled decision-making cycle might be ‘sense–predict–agree–act’: AI senses the environment; predicts what the adversary might do and offers what a future friendly force response should be; the human part of the human–machine team agrees with this assessment; and AI acts by sending machine-to-machine instructions to the small, agile and many autonomous warfighting assets deployed en masse across the battlefield.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-SPAA-Loop-1.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28882" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/ai-spaa-loop-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-SPAA-Loop-1.jpg?fit=885%2C519&ssl=1" data-orig-size="885,519" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="AI SPAA Loop" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-SPAA-Loop-1.jpg?fit=300%2C176&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-SPAA-Loop-1.jpg?fit=468%2C274&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28882" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-SPAA-Loop-1.jpg?resize=468%2C274&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="274" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-SPAA-Loop-1.jpg?w=885&ssl=1 885w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-SPAA-Loop-1.jpg?resize=300%2C176&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-SPAA-Loop-1.jpg?resize=150%2C88&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-SPAA-Loop-1.jpg?resize=768%2C450&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">An example of this is <a href="https://www.darpa.mil/program/air-combat-evolution">DARPA’s ACE (Air Combat Evolution) program</a> that is developing a warfighting concept for combined arms using a manned and unmanned systems. Humans will <a href="https://sam.gov/opp/6a4fec04823e4a168db6f5e051fe9d88/view#general">fight in close collaboration with autonomous weapon systems</a> in complex environments with tactics informed by artificial intelligence.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>A Once-in-a-Generation Event<br /> </strong>Imagine it’s the 1980’s and you’re in charge of an intelligence agency. SIGINT and COMINT were analog and RF. You had worldwide collection systems with bespoke systems in space, air, underwater, etc. And you wake up to a world that shifts from copper to fiber. Most of your people, and equipment are going to be obsolete, and you need to learn how to capture those new bits. Almost every business processes needed to change, new organizations needed to be created, new skills were needed, and old ones were obsoleted. <em>That’s what AI/ML is going to do to you and your agency.</em></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The primary obstacle to innovation in national security is not technology, it is culture. The DoD and IC must overcome a host of institutional, bureaucratic, and policy challenges to adopting and integrating these new technologies. Many parts of our culture are resistant to change, reliant on traditional tradecraft and means of collection, and averse to risk-taking, (particularly acquiring and adopting new technologies and integrating outside information sources.)</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">History tells us that late adopters fall by the wayside as more agile and opportunistic governments master new technologies.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Carpe Diem.</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Want more Detail?</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Read on if you want to know about <a href="#semiconductor section">Machine Learning chips</a>, see a sample Machine Learning Pipeline and learn about the four types of Machine Learning.</p> <p> </p> <div style="background-color: #ededed;"> <div style="border: 1px solid black; padding: 1px;"> <h3 id="semiconductor section" style="font-weight: 400;"><strong><em>Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning</em></strong> <strong>Semiconductors</strong></h3> <p><em>Skip this section if all you need to know is that special chips are used for AI/ML.</em></p> <p>AI/ML, semiconductors, and high-performance computing are intimately intertwined – and progress in each is dependent on the others. (See the “<a href="https://gordianknot.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj22971/files/media/file/The%20Semiconductor%20Ecosystem%20v2.pdf">Semiconductor Ecosystem</a>” report.)</p> <p>Some machine learning models can have <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/gpt-3-scared-you-meet-wu-dao-2-0-a-monster-of-1-75-trillion-parameters-832cd83db484">trillions of parameters</a> and require a massive number of specialized AI chips to run. Edge computers are significantly less powerful than the massive compute power that’s located at data centers and the cloud. They need low power and specialized silicon.</p> <p><em>Why Dedicated AI Chips and Chip Speed Matter<br /> </em>Dedicated chips for neutral nets (e.g. <a href="https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/data-center-gpus/">Nvidia GPUs</a>, Xilinx FPUs, Google TPUs) are faster than conventional CPUs for three reasons: 1) they use parallelization, 2) they have larger memory bandwidth and 3) they have fast memory access.</p> <p>There are three types of AI Chips:<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/cerebas-cguo.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28832" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/cerebas-cguo/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/cerebas-cguo.jpg?fit=112%2C143&ssl=1" data-orig-size="112,143" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="cerebas cguo" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/cerebas-cguo.jpg?fit=112%2C143&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/cerebas-cguo.jpg?fit=112%2C143&ssl=1" class="alignright size-full wp-image-28832" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/cerebas-cguo.jpg?resize=112%2C143&ssl=1" alt="" width="112" height="143" /></a></p> <ul> <li>Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) – Thousands of cores, parallel workloads, widespread use in machine learning</li> <li>Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) – Good for algorithms; compression, video encoding, cryptocurrency, genomics, search. Needs specialists to program</li> <li>Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) – custom chips e.g. Google TPU’s</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://www.bizety.com/2019/10/28/ai-chips-gpu-tpu-and-npu/">Matrix multiplication</a> plays a big part in neural network computations, especially if there are many layers and nodes. Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) contain 100s or 1,000s of cores that can do these multiplications simultaneously. And neural networks are inherently parallel which means that it’s easy to run a program across the cores and clusters of these processors. That makes AI chips 10s or even 1,000s of times faster and more efficient than classic CPUs for training and inference of AI algorithms. State-of-the-art AI chips are dramatically more cost-effective than state-of-the-art CPUs as a result of their greater efficiency for AI algorithms.</p> <p>Cutting-edge AI systems require not only AI-specific chips, but state-of-the-art AI chips. Older AI chips incur huge energy consumption costs that quickly balloon to unaffordable levels. Using older AI chips today means overall costs and slowdowns at least an order of magnitude greater than for state-of- the-art AI chips.<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Chips.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28863" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/chips/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Chips.jpg?fit=333%2C163&ssl=1" data-orig-size="333,163" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Chips" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Chips.jpg?fit=300%2C147&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Chips.jpg?fit=333%2C163&ssl=1" class="alignright size-thumbnail wp-image-28863" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Chips.jpg?resize=150%2C73&ssl=1" alt="" width="150" height="73" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Chips.jpg?resize=150%2C73&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Chips.jpg?resize=300%2C147&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Chips.jpg?w=333&ssl=1 333w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" /></a></p> <p>Cost and speed make it virtually impossible to develop and deploy cutting-edge AI algorithms without state-of-the-art AI chips. Even with state-of-the-art AI chips, training a large AI algorithm can cost tens of millions of dollars and take weeks to complete. With general-purpose chips like CPUs or older AI chips, this training would take much longer and cost orders of magnitude more, making staying at the R&D frontier impossible. Similarly, performing inference using less advanced or less specialized chips could involve similar cost overruns and take orders of magnitude longer.</p> <p>In addition to off-the-shelf AI chips from Nvidia, Xlinix and Intel, large companies like Facebook, Google, Amazon, have designed their own chips to accelerate AI. The opportunity is so large that there are <em>hundreds </em>of AI accelerator startups designing their own chips, funded by 10’s of billions of venture capital and private equity. None of these companies own a chip manufacturing plant (a fab) so they all use a foundry (an independent company that makes chips for others) like TSMC in Taiwan (or SMIC in China for for its defense related silicon.)</p> <p><strong>A Sample of AI GPU, FPGA and ASIC AI Chips and Where They’re Made</strong></p> <p><strong> <a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Chips-by-country.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28790" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/ai-chips-by-country/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Chips-by-country.jpg?fit=610%2C454&ssl=1" data-orig-size="610,454" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="AI Chips by country" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Chips-by-country.jpg?fit=300%2C223&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Chips-by-country.jpg?fit=468%2C348&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28790" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Chips-by-country.jpg?resize=468%2C348&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="348" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Chips-by-country.jpg?w=610&ssl=1 610w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Chips-by-country.jpg?resize=300%2C223&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AI-Chips-by-country.jpg?resize=150%2C112&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></strong></p> <p><strong>IP (Intellectual Property) Vendors Also Offer AI Accelerators<br /> </strong>AI chip designers can buy AI <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_intellectual_property_core">IP Cores</a> – prebuilt AI accelerators from Synopsys (<a href="https://www.synopsys.com/dw/ipdir.php?ds=ev7x-vision-processors">EV7x</a>,) Cadence (<a href="https://www.cadence.com/en_US/home/tools/ip/tensilica-ip/tensilica-ai-platform.html">Tensilica AI</a>,) Arm (<a href="https://www.arm.com/products/silicon-ip-cpu/ethos/ethos-u65">Ethos</a>,) Ceva (<a href="https://www.ceva-dsp.com/product/ceva-senspro/">SensPro2</a>, <a href="https://www.ceva-dsp.com/product/ceva-neupro/">NeuPro</a>), Imagination (<a href="https://www.imaginationtech.com/products/ai/img-series4-nna/">Series4</a>,) ThinkSilicon (<a href="https://www.think-silicon.com/neox-graphics">Neox</a>,) FlexLogic (<a href="https://www.flex-logix.com/efpga/what-is-efpga.html">eFPGA</a>,) <a href="https://www.edgecortix.com/">Edgecortix</a> and others.</p> <p><strong>Other AI Hardware Architectures<br /> </strong><a href="https://medium.com/swlh/neuromorphic-computing-spiking-neural-networks-d8c5755b78e3"><em>Spiking Neural Networks</em></a><em> (SNN) </em>is a completely different approach from Deep Neural Nets. A form of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-021-00184-y">Neuromorphic computing</a> it tries to emulate how a brain works. SNN neurons use simple counters and adders—no matrix multiply hardware is needed and power consumption is much lower. SNNs are good at unsupervised learning – e.g. detecting patterns in unlabeled data streams. Combined with their low power they’re a good fit for sensors at the edge. Examples: <a href="https://brainchipinc.com/">BrainChip</a>, <a href="https://www.graimatterlabs.ai/">GrAI Matter</a>, <a href="https://www.innatera.com/">Innatera</a>, <a href="https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/research/neuromorphic-computing.html">Intel</a>.</p> <p><em>Analog Machine Learning AI </em>chips use analog circuits to do the matrix multiplication in memory. The result is extremely low power AI for always-on sensors. Examples: Mythic (<a href="https://mythic.ai/">AMP</a>,) Aspinity (<a href="https://www.aspinity.com/aml100">AML100</a>,) <a href="https://www.tetramem.com/products">Tetramem</a>.</p> <p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41566-020-00754-y"><em>Optical (Photonics) AI Computation</em></a> promise performance gains over standard digital silicon, and some are nearing production. They use intersecting coherent light beams rather than switching transistors to perform matrix multiplies. Computation happens in picoseconds and requires only power for the laser. (Though off-chip digital transitions still limit power savings.) Examples: <a href="https://lightmatter.co/">Lightmatter</a>, <a href="https://www.lightelligence.ai/">Lightelligence</a>, <a href="https://www.luminous.com/">Luminous</a>, <a href="https://lighton.ai/photonic-computing-for-ai/">Lighton</a>.</p> <p><strong>AI Hardware for the Edge<br /> </strong><a href="https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2022/02/17/what-is-edge-ai/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">As more AI moves to the edge</a>, the Edge AI accelerator market is segmenting into high-end chips for camera-based systems and low-power chips for simple sensors. For example:</p> <p><em>AI Chips in Autonomous vehicles, Augmented Reality and multicamera surveillance systems </em>These inference engines require high performance. Examples: Nvidia (<a href="https://www.nvidia.com/content/dam/en-zz/Solutions/gtcf21/jetson-orin/nvidia-jetson-agx-orin-technical-brief.pdf">Orin</a>,) AMD (<a href="https://www.xilinx.com/products/silicon-devices/acap/versal-ai-edge.html">Versal</a>,) Qualcomm (<a href="https://www.qualcomm.com/products/technology/processors/cloud-artificial-intelligence/cloud-ai-100">Cloud AI 100</a>,) and acquired <a href="https://www.arriver.com/">Arriver</a> for automotive software.</p> <p><em>AI Chips in Cameras</em> for facial recognition, surveillance. These inference chips require a balance of processing power with low power. Putting an AI chip in each camera reduces latency and bandwidth. Examples: <a href="https://hailo.ai/product-hailo/hailo-8/">Hailo-8</a>, <a href="https://www.ambarella.com/wp-content/uploads/Ambarella_CV5S_Product_Brief_10JUN2021.pdf">Ambarella CV5S</a>, Quadric (<a href="https://www.quadric.io/product/processor">Q16</a>), (RealTek <a href="https://www.realtek.com/en/products/product-hits/item/low-power-ai-ip-camera">3916N</a>).</p> <p><em>Ultralow-Power AI Chips Target IoT Sensors – </em>IoT devices require very simple neural networks and can run for years on a single battery. Example applications: Presence detection, wakeword detection, gunshot detection… Examples: Syntiant (<a href="https://www.syntiant.com/company">NDP,)</a> <a href="https://www.innatera.com/">Innatera</a>, <a href="https://brainchipinc.com/">BrainChip</a></p> <p>Running on the edge devices are deep learning models such as <a href="https://omniml.ai" target="_blank" rel="noopener">OmniML</a>, <a href="https://www.foghorn.io" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Foghorn</a>, specifically designed for edge accelerators.</p> <p><strong>AI/ML Hardware Benchmarks<br /> </strong>While there are lots of claims about how much faster each of these chips are for AI/ML there are now a set of standard benchmarks – <a href="https://mlcommons.org/en/">MLCommons</a>. These benchmarks were created by Google, Baidu, Stanford, Harvard and U.C. Berkeley.</p> <p><strong>One Last Thing – Non-Nvidia AI Chips and the “Nvidia Software Moat”<br /> </strong>New AI accelerator chips have to cross the software moat that Nvidia has built around their GPU’s. As popular AI applications and frameworks are built on <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CUDA">Nvidia CUDA</a> software platform, if new AI Accelerator vendors want to port these applications to their chips they have to build their own drivers, compiler, debugger, and other tools.</p> </div> </div> <h3 id="machine-learning-pipeline"><strong>Details of a machine learning pipeline</strong></h3> <p>This is a sample of the workflow (a pipeline) data scientists use to develop, deploy and maintain a machine learning model (see the detailed description <a href="https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/machine-learning/architect-and-build-the-full-machine-learning-lifecycle-with-amazon-sagemaker/">here</a>.)</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AWS-ML-Pipeline.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28785" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/aws-ml-pipeline/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AWS-ML-Pipeline.jpg?fit=1847%2C941&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1847,941" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="AWS ML Pipeline" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AWS-ML-Pipeline.jpg?fit=300%2C153&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AWS-ML-Pipeline.jpg?fit=468%2C239&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28785" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AWS-ML-Pipeline.jpg?resize=468%2C238&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="238" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AWS-ML-Pipeline.jpg?w=1847&ssl=1 1847w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AWS-ML-Pipeline.jpg?resize=300%2C153&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AWS-ML-Pipeline.jpg?resize=1024%2C522&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AWS-ML-Pipeline.jpg?resize=150%2C76&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AWS-ML-Pipeline.jpg?resize=768%2C391&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AWS-ML-Pipeline.jpg?resize=1536%2C783&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AWS-ML-Pipeline.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AWS-ML-Pipeline.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <div style="background-color: #ededed;"> <div style="border: 1px solid black; padding: 16px;"> <h3><strong>The Types of Machine Learning</strong></h3> <p><em>skip this section if you want to believe it’s magic.</em></p> <p>Machine Learning algorithms fall into four classes:<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/types-of-machine-learning.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28866" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/types-of-machine-learning/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/types-of-machine-learning.jpg?fit=404%2C70&ssl=1" data-orig-size="404,70" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="types of machine learning" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/types-of-machine-learning.jpg?fit=300%2C52&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/types-of-machine-learning.jpg?fit=404%2C70&ssl=1" class="wp-image-28866 aligncenter" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/types-of-machine-learning.jpg?resize=468%2C81&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="81" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/types-of-machine-learning.jpg?w=404&ssl=1 404w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/types-of-machine-learning.jpg?resize=300%2C52&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/types-of-machine-learning.jpg?resize=150%2C26&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <ol> <li>Supervised Learning</li> <li>Unsupervised Learning</li> <li>Semi-supervised Learning</li> <li>Reinforcement Learning</li> </ol> <p>They differ based on:</p> <ul> <li>What types of data their algorithms can work with</li> <li>For supervised and unsupervised learning, whether or not the training data is <em>labeled</em> or <em>unlabeled</em></li> <li>How the system receives its data inputs</li> </ul> <p><strong>Supervised Learning</strong></p> <ul> <li>A “supervisor” (a human or a software system) accurately <em>labels</em> each of the training data inputs with its correct associated output</li> <li>Note that pre-labeled data <em>is only required for the training data that the algorithm uses to train the AI mode<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/supervised-images.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28876" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/supervised-images/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/supervised-images.jpg?fit=282%2C544&ssl=1" data-orig-size="282,544" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="supervised images" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/supervised-images.jpg?fit=156%2C300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/supervised-images.jpg?fit=282%2C544&ssl=1" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-28876" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/supervised-images.jpg?resize=156%2C300&ssl=1" alt="" width="156" height="300" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/supervised-images.jpg?resize=156%2C300&ssl=1 156w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/supervised-images.jpg?resize=78%2C150&ssl=1 78w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/supervised-images.jpg?w=282&ssl=1 282w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 156px) 100vw, 156px" /></a></em></li> <li>In operation in the inference phase the AI will be generating its own labels, the accuracy of which will depend on the AI’s training</li> <li>Supervised Learning can achieve extremely high performance, but they require very large, labeled datasets</li> <li>Using labeled inputs and outputs, the model can measure its accuracy and learn over time</li> <li>For images a rule of thumb is that the algorithm needs at least 5,000 labeled examples of each category in order to produce an AI model with decent performance</li> <li>In supervised learning, the algorithm “learns” from the training dataset by iteratively making predictions on the data and adjusting for the correct answer.</li> <li>While supervised learning models tend to be more accurate than unsupervised learning models, they require upfront human intervention to label the data appropriately.</li> </ul> <p><em>Supervised Machine Learning – Categories and Examples</em>:</p> <ul> <li><strong><em>Classification </em></strong><em>problems</em> – use an algorithm to assign data into specific categories, such as separating apples from oranges. Or classify spam in a separate folder from your inbox. Linear classifiers, support vector machines, decision trees and <a href="https://www.ibm.com/cloud/learn/random-forest">random forest</a> are all common types of classification algorithms.</li> <li><strong><em>Regression</em></strong>– understands the relationship between dependent and independent variables. Helpful for predicting numerical values based on different data points, such as sales revenue projections for a given business. Some popular regression algorithms are linear regression, logistic regression and polynomial regression.</li> <li>Example algorithms include: Logistic Regression and Back Propagation Neural Networks</li> </ul> <p><strong>Unsupervised Learning</strong></p> <ul> <li>These algorithms can analyze and cluster <em>unlabeled</em> data sets. They discover hidden patterns in data without the need for human intervention (hence, they are “unsupervised”)<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/unsupervised-images.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28877" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/unsupervised-images/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/unsupervised-images.jpg?fit=262%2C544&ssl=1" data-orig-size="262,544" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="unsupervised images" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/unsupervised-images.jpg?fit=144%2C300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/unsupervised-images.jpg?fit=262%2C544&ssl=1" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-28877" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/unsupervised-images.jpg?resize=144%2C300&ssl=1" alt="" width="144" height="300" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/unsupervised-images.jpg?resize=144%2C300&ssl=1 144w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/unsupervised-images.jpg?resize=72%2C150&ssl=1 72w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/unsupervised-images.jpg?w=262&ssl=1 262w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 144px) 100vw, 144px" /></a></li> <li>They can extract features from the data without a label for the results</li> <li>For an image classifier, an unsupervised algorithm would not identify the image as a “cat” or a “dog.” Instead, it would sort the training dataset into various groups based on their similarity</li> <li>Unsupervised Learning systems are often less predictable, but as unlabeled data is usually more available than labeled data, they are important</li> <li>Unsupervised algorithms are useful when developers want to understand their own datasets and see what properties might be useful in either developing automation or change operational practices and policies</li> <li>They still require some human intervention for validating the output<strong><em> </em></strong></li> </ul> <p><em>Unsupervised Machine Learning – Categories and Examples</em></p> <ul> <li><strong><em>Clustering </em></strong>groups unlabeled data based on their similarities or differences. For example, K-means clustering algorithms assign similar data points into groups, where the K value represents the size of the grouping and granularity. This technique is helpful for market segmentation, image compression, etc.</li> <li><strong><em>Association </em></strong>finds relationships between variables in a given dataset. These methods are frequently used for market basket analysis and recommendation engines, along the lines of “Customers Who Bought This Item Also Bought” recommendations.</li> <li><strong><em>Dimensionality reduction </em></strong>is used when the number of features (or dimensions) in a given dataset is too high. It reduces the number of data inputs to a manageable size while also preserving the data integrity. Often, this technique is used in the preprocessing data stage, such as when autoencoders remove noise from visual data to improve picture quality.</li> <li>Example algorithms include: Apriori algorithm and K-Means</li> </ul> <p><strong>Difference between supervised and unsupervised learning </strong></p> <p>The main difference: Labeled data</p> <ul> <li><em>Goals</em>: In supervised learning, the goal is to predict outcomes for new data. You know up front the type of results to expect. With an unsupervised learning algorithm, the goal is to get insights from large volumes of new data. The machine learning itself determines what is different or interesting from the dataset.</li> <li><strong><em>Applications</em></strong>: Supervised learning models are ideal for spam detection, sentiment analysis, weather forecasting and pricing predictions, among other things. In contrast, unsupervised learning is a great fit for anomaly detection, recommendation engines, customer personas and medical imaging.</li> <li><strong><em>Complexity</em></strong><strong>: </strong>Supervised learning is a simple method for machine learning, typically calculated through the use of programs like R or Python.<strong> </strong>In unsupervised learning, you need powerful tools for working with large amounts of unclassified data. Unsupervised learning models are computationally complex because they need a large training set to produce intended outcomes.</li> <li><strong><em>Drawbacks</em></strong>: Supervised learning models can be time-consuming to train, and the labels for input and output variables require expertise. Meanwhile, unsupervised learning methods can have wildly inaccurate results unless you have human intervention to validate the output variables.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Semi-Supervised Learning</strong></p> <ul> <li>“Semi- Supervised” algorithms combine techniques from Supervised and Unsupervised algorithms for applications with a small set of labeled data and a large set of unlabeled data.</li> <li>In practice, using them leads to exactly what you would expect, a mix of some of both of the strengths and weaknesses of Supervised and Unsupervised approaches</li> <li>Typical algorithms are extensions to other flexible methods that make assumptions about how to model the unlabeled data. An example is <a href="https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2014/file/5ca3e9b122f61f8f06494c97b1afccf3-Paper.pdf">Generative Adversarial Networks</a> trained on photographs can generate new photographs that look authentic to human observers (deep fakes)<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GANN-Faces.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28887" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/gann-faces/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GANN-Faces.jpg?fit=1572%2C454&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1572,454" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="GANN Faces" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GANN-Faces.jpg?fit=300%2C87&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GANN-Faces.jpg?fit=468%2C135&ssl=1" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-28887" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GANN-Faces.jpg?resize=300%2C87&ssl=1" alt="" width="300" height="87" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GANN-Faces.jpg?resize=300%2C87&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GANN-Faces.jpg?resize=1024%2C296&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GANN-Faces.jpg?resize=150%2C43&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GANN-Faces.jpg?resize=768%2C222&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GANN-Faces.jpg?resize=1536%2C444&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GANN-Faces.jpg?w=1572&ssl=1 1572w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GANN-Faces.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GANN-Faces.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></li> </ul> <p><strong>Reinforcement Learning</strong></p> <ul> <li>Training data is collected by an autonomous, self-directed AI agent as it perceives its environment and performs goal-directed actions</li> <li>The rewards are input data received by the AI agent when certain criteria are satisfied.</li> <li>These criteria are typically unknown to the agent at the start of training</li> <li>Rewards often contain only partial information. They don’t signal which inputs were good or not</li> <li>The system is learning to take actions to maximize its receipt of cumulative rewards<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SPAA-Loop.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28889" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/spaa-loop/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SPAA-Loop.jpg?fit=867%2C246&ssl=1" data-orig-size="867,246" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="SPAA Loop" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SPAA-Loop.jpg?fit=300%2C85&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SPAA-Loop.jpg?fit=468%2C133&ssl=1" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-28889" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SPAA-Loop.jpg?resize=300%2C85&ssl=1" alt="" width="300" height="85" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SPAA-Loop.jpg?resize=300%2C85&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SPAA-Loop.jpg?resize=150%2C43&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SPAA-Loop.jpg?resize=768%2C218&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SPAA-Loop.jpg?w=867&ssl=1 867w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></li> <li>Reinforcement AI can defeat humans– in chess, Go…</li> <li>There are no labeled datasets for every possible move</li> <li>There is no assessment of whether it was a “good or bad move</li> <li>Instead, partial labels reveal the final outcome “win” or “lose”</li> <li>The algorithms explore the space of possible actions to learn the optimal set of rules for determining the best action that maximize wins</li> </ul> <p><em>Reinforcement Machine Learning – Categories and Examples</em></p> <ul> <li>Algorithm examples include: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Q-learning#Deep_Q-learning">DQN</a> (Deep Q Network), DDPG (Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient), A3C (Asynchronous Advantage Actor-Critic Algorithm), NAF (Q-Learning with Normalized Advantage Functions), …</li> <li>AlphaGo, a Reinforcement system played 4.9 million games of Go in 3 days against itself to learn how to play the game at a world-champion level<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/tesla-in-wall.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28870" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/tesla-in-wall/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/tesla-in-wall.jpg?fit=1582%2C1060&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1582,1060" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="tesla in wall" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/tesla-in-wall.jpg?fit=300%2C201&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/tesla-in-wall.jpg?fit=468%2C314&ssl=1" class="alignright wp-image-28870" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/tesla-in-wall.jpg?resize=190%2C127&ssl=1" alt="" width="190" height="127" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/tesla-in-wall.jpg?resize=300%2C201&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/tesla-in-wall.jpg?resize=1024%2C686&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/tesla-in-wall.jpg?resize=150%2C101&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/tesla-in-wall.jpg?resize=768%2C515&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/tesla-in-wall.jpg?resize=1536%2C1029&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/tesla-in-wall.jpg?w=1582&ssl=1 1582w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/tesla-in-wall.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/tesla-in-wall.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 190px) 100vw, 190px" /></a></li> <li>Reinforcement is challenging to use in the real world, as the real world is not as heavily bounded as video games and time cannot be sped up in the real world</li> <li>There are consequences to failure in the real world</li> </ul> </div> </div> <h3 style="text-align: center;"><strong>(download a PDF of this article <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GReNZ9fbI4203esUwGzqqLVg1EleXLWy/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>)</strong></h3> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Sources:</strong></h3> <ul> <li><strong>Understanding AI Technology: </strong>Greg Allen, Chief of Strategy and Communications Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC), Department of Defense <a href="https://www.ai.mil/docs/Understanding%20AI%20Technology.pdf">https://www.ai.mil/docs/Understanding%20AI%20Technology.pdf</a></li> <li>·<strong>AI, Machine Learning, Deep Learning Explained Simply</strong>: Jun Wu <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/ai-machine-learning-deep-learning-explained-simply-7b553da5b960">https://towardsdatascience.com/ai-machine-learning-deep-learning-explained-simply-7b553da5b960</a></li> <li><strong>The Democratization of Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning: </strong>Databricks<a href="https://databricks.com/discover/pages/the-democratization-of-artificial-intelligence-and-deep-learning">https://databricks.com/discover/pages/the-democratization-of-artificial-intelligence-and-deep-learning</a></li> <li><strong>Final Report: National Security Report on Artificial Intelligence</strong><a href="https://www.nscai.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Full-Report-Digital-1.pdf">https://www.nscai.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Full-Report-Digital-1.pdf</a></li> <li><strong>A Beginners Guide to Neural Nets and Deep Learning</strong>: Pathmind <a href="https://wiki.pathmind.com/neural-network">https://wiki.pathmind.com/neural-network</a></li> <li><strong>IBM Cloud Learning: </strong>Overfiitting <a href="https://www.ibm.com/cloud/learn/overfitting" rel="nofollow">https://www.ibm.com/cloud/learn/overfitting</a></li> </ul> <h3 style="text-align: center;"></h3> <p><a href="applewebdata://24E6BADC-7015-4F67-B0A6-A400B34E9514#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1"></a><br /> 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href="https://steveblank.com/category/gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation/" rel="category tag">Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation</a>, <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/technology/" rel="category tag">Technology</a> | <a href="https://steveblank.com/2022/05/17/artificial-intelligence-and-machine-learning-explained/#comments">2 Comments »</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="post-28512 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-corporate-govt-innovation category-gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation category-technology category-technology-innovation-and-modern-war category-technology-innovation-and-modern-war-2" id="post-28512"> <h2><a href="https://steveblank.com/2022/05/03/lessons-for-the-dod-from-ukraine-and-china/" rel="bookmark">Lessons for the DoD – From Ukraine and China</a></h2> <div class="postinfo"> Posted on <span class="postdate">May 3, 2022</span> by steve blank </div> <div class="entry"> <p style="font-weight: 400;"> Portions<a href="https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/as-silicon-valley-tries-to-enlist-the-pentagon-strangles-innovation/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> of this post</a> previously appeared in War On the Rocks<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/war-on-the-rocks-logo.png?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="25477" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2019/11/12/why-the-government-is-isnt-a-bigger-version-of-a-startup/war-on-the-rocks-logo/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/war-on-the-rocks-logo.png?fit=370%2C82&ssl=1" data-orig-size="370,82" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="war on the rocks logo" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/war-on-the-rocks-logo.png?fit=300%2C66&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/war-on-the-rocks-logo.png?fit=370%2C82&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-25477" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/war-on-the-rocks-logo.png?resize=86%2C19&ssl=1" alt="" width="86" height="19" /></a>.</p> <hr /> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Looking at a satellite image of Ukraine online I realized it was from <a href="https://www.capellaspace.com/">Capella Space</a> – one of our <a href="https://www.h4d.us/">Hacking for Defense</a> student teams who now has 7 satellites in orbit.<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capella-0314-1.png?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28513" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/capella-0314-1/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capella-0314-1.png?fit=2048%2C1152&ssl=1" data-orig-size="2048,1152" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Capella-0314-1" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capella-0314-1.png?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capella-0314-1.png?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-28513" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capella-0314-1.png?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capella-0314-1.png?w=2048&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capella-0314-1.png?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capella-0314-1.png?resize=1024%2C576&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capella-0314-1.png?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capella-0314-1.png?resize=768%2C432&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capella-0314-1.png?resize=1536%2C864&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capella-0314-1.png?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capella-0314-1.png?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>National Security is Now Dependent on Commercial Technology</strong><br /> They’re not the only startup in this fight. An entire wave of new startups and scaleups are providing satellite imagery and analysis, satellite communications, and unmanned aerial vehicles supporting the struggle.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">For decades, satellites that took detailed pictures of Earth were only available to governments and the high-resolution images were classified. Today, commercial companies have their own satellites providing unclassified imagery. The government buys and distributes commercial images from startups to supplement their own and shares them with Ukraine as part of a broader intelligence-sharing arrangement that the head of <a href="https://www.dia.mil" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Defense Intelligence Agency</a> described as “<a href="https://www.realcleardefense.com/2022/03/21/dia_intel_sharing_between_us_and_ukraine_revolutionary_822814.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revolutionary</a>.” By the end of the decade, there will be 1000 commercial satellites for every U.S. government satellite in orbit.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">At the onset of the war in Ukraine, <a href="https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/viasats-ka-sat-network-still-disrupted-by-suspected-cyberattack-more-than-two-weeks-later/">Russia launched a cyber-attack</a> on Viasat’s KA-SAT satellite, which supplies Internet across Europe, including to Ukraine. In response, to a <a href="https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1497543633293266944">(tweeted) request </a>from Ukraine’s vice prime minister, Elon Musk’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/19/elon-musk-ukraine-starlink/">Starlink</a> satellite company shipped thousands of their satellite dishes and got Ukraine back on the Internet. Other startups are providing portable cell towers – “backpackable” and fixed. When these connect via satellite link, they can provide phone service and WIFI capability. Another startup is providing a resilient, mesh local area network for secure tactical communications supporting ground units.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Drone technology was initially only available to national governments and militaries but is now democratized to low price points and available as internet purchases. In Ukraine, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-04/u-s-switchblade-drones-for-ukraine-will-include-tank-killers">drones from startups </a>are being used as automated delivery vehicles for resupply, and for tactical reconnaissance to discover where threats are. When combined with commercial satellite imagery, this enables pinpoint accuracy to deliver maximum kinetic impact in stopping opposing forces.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Equipment from large military contractors and other countries is also part of the effort. However, the equipment listed above is available commercially off-the-shelf, at dramatically cheaper prices than what’s offered by the large existing defense contractors, and developed and delivered in a fraction of the time. The Ukraine conflict is demonstrating the changing character of war such that low-cost emerging commercial technology is extremely effective when deployed against a larger 20th-century industrialized force that Russia is fielding.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">While we should celebrate the organizations that have created and fielded these systems, the battle for the Ukraine illustrates much larger issues in the Department of Defense.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>For the first time ever our national security is inexorably intertwined with commercial technology</em> (drones, AI, machine learning, autonomy, biotech, cyber, semiconductors, quantum, high-performance computing, commercial access to space, et al.) And as we’re seeing on the Ukrainian battlefield they are changing the balance of power.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The DoD’s traditional suppliers of defense tools, technologies, and weapons – the prime contractors and federal labs – are no longer the leaders in these next-generation technologies – drones, AI, machine learning, semiconductors, quantum, autonomy, biotech, cyber, quantum, high performance computing, et al. They know this and know that weapons that can be built at a fraction of the cost and upgraded via software will destroy their existing business models.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Venture capital and startups have spent 50 years institutionalizing the rapid delivery of disruptive innovation. In the U.S., private investors spent <a href="https://nvca.org/pressreleases/u-s-venture-capital-soars-to-new-highs-in-2021/">$300 billion last</a> year to fund new ventures that can move with the speed and urgency that the DoD now requires. Meanwhile China has been engaged in a Civil/Military Fusion program since 2015 to harness these disruptive <em>commercial</em> technologies for its national security needs.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>China – Civil/Military Fusion</strong><br /> Every year the Secretary of Defense has to issue a formal report to Congress: <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China</a>. Six pages of this year’s report describe how China is <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">combining its military-civilian sectors as a national effort</a> for the PRC to develop a “world-class” military and become a world leader in science and technology. A key part of Beijing’s strategy includes developing and acquiring advanced dual-use technology. It’s worth thinking about what this means – China is not just using its traditional military contractors to build its defense ecosystem; <em>they’re mobilizing their entire economy</em> – commercial plus military suppliers. And we’re not.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>DoD’s Civil/Military Orphan-Child – the <a href="https://www.diu.mil/">Defense Innovation Unit</a><br /> </strong>In 2015, before China started its Civil/Military effort, then-Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, saw the need for the DoD to understand, embrace and acquire commercial technology. To do so he started the <a href="https://www.diu.mil/">Defense Innovation Unit </a><a href="https://www.diu.mil/">(</a>DIU). With offices in Silicon Valley, Austin, Boston, Chicago and Washington, DC, this is the one DoD organization with the staffing and mandate to match commercial startups or scaleups to pressing national security problems.<span style="font-weight: 400;"> DIU</span> bridges the divide between DOD requirements and the commercial technology needed to address them with speed and urgency. It accelerates the connection of commercial technology to the military. Just as importantly, DIU helps the Department of Defense learn how to innovate at the same speed as tech-driven companies.</p> <div> <p>Many of the startups providing Ukraine satellite imagery and analysis, satellite communications, and unmanned aerial vehicles were found by the <a href="https://www.diu.mil/">Defense Innovation Unit</a> (DIU). Given that DIU is the Department of Defense’s most successful organization in developing and acquiring advanced dual-use technology, one would expect the department to scale the <a href="https://www.diu.mil/">Defense Innovation Unit</a> by a factor of ten. (Two years ago, the House Armed Services Committee in its <a href="https://armedservices.house.gov/_cache/files/2/6/26129500-d208-47ba-a9f7-25a8f82828b0/424EB2008281A3C79BA8C7EA71890AE9.future-of-defense-task-force-report.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Future of Defense Task Force report</a> recommended exactly that—a 10X increase in budget.) The threats are too imminent and stakes too high not to do so.</p> <p>So what happened?</p> </div> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Congress cut their budget by 20%.</p> <p>And <a href="https://www.diu.mil/team/Michael-Brown" target="_blank" rel="noopener">their well-regarded director</a> just resigned in frustration because the Department is not resourcing DIU nor moving fast enough or broadly enough in adopting commercial technology.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Why? The Defense Ecosystem is at a turning point. Defense innovation threatens entrenched interests. Given that the Pentagon budget is essentially fixed, creating new vendors and new national champions of the next generation of defense technologies becomes a zero-sum game.</p> <p>The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) had no advocates in its chain of command willing to go to bat for it, let alone scale it.</p> <p><strong>The Department</strong><strong> of Defense has world-class people and organization for a world that no longer exists</strong><i style="font-weight: 400;"><br /> </i>The Pentagon’s relationship with startups and commercial companies, already an arms-length one, is hindered by a profound lack of understanding about how the commercial innovation ecosystem works and its failure of imagination about what venture and private equity funded innovation could offer. In the last few years new venture capital and private equity firms have raised money to invest in dual-use startups. New startups focused on national security have sprung up and they and their investors have been banging on the closed doors of the defense department.</p> <p>If we want to keep pace with our adversaries, we need to stop acting like we can compete with one hand tied behind our back. We need a radical reinvention of our civil/military innovation relationship. This would use Department of Defense funding, private capital, dual-use startups, existing prime contractors and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federally_funded_research_and_development_centers">federal</a> labs in a new configuration that could look like this:</p> <div> <div style="padding: 12px; background-color: #f2f2f2; line-height: 1.4;"> <hr /> <blockquote> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong><em>Create a new defense ecosystem</em></strong> encompassing startups, and mid-sized companies at the bleeding edge, prime contractors as <i>integrators</i> of advanced technology, federally funded R&D centers refocused on areas not covered by commercial tech (nuclear and hypersonics). Make it permanent by creating an innovation doctrine/policy.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote><p><strong><em>Reorganize <a href="https://www.cto.mil" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DoD Research and Engineering</a></em></strong> to allocate its budget and resources equally between traditional sources of innovation and new commercial sources of innovation.</p></blockquote> <ul> <li> <blockquote><p><em>Scale new entrants to the defense industrial base in dual-use commercial tech</em> – AI/ML, Quantum, Space, drones, autonomy, biotech, underwater vehicles, shipyards, etc. that are not the traditional vendors<b>. </b>Do this by picking winners. Don’t give out door prizes. Contracts should be >$100M so <i>high-quality </i>venture-funded companies will play. And issue debt/loans to startups.</p></blockquote> </li> </ul> <blockquote><p><strong><em>Reorganize <a href="https://www.acq.osd.mil" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DoD Acquisition and Sustainment</a></em></strong> to create and buy from new 21st century arsenals – new shipyards, drone manufacturers, etc. that can make 1,000’s of extremely low cost, attritable systems – “<a href="https://steveblank.com/2022/01/18/the-small-the-agile-and-the-many-the-navys-hedge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the small, the agile and the many</a>.”</p></blockquote> <ul> <li> <blockquote><p><em>Acquire at Speed</em>. Today, the average <a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/Patt%20Greenwalt_Competing%20in%20Time.pdf">Department of Defense major acquisition program takes anywhere from nine to 26 years </a>to get a weapon in the hands of a warfighter. DoD needs a requirements, budgeting and acquisition process that operates at commercial speed (18 months or less) which is 10x faster than DoD procurement cycles. Instead of writing requirements, the department should <em>rapidly </em>assess solutions and engage warfighters in assessing and prototyping commercial solutions. We’ll know we’ve built the right ecosystem when a significant number of <a href="https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2021/fy2021_Weapons.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">major defense acquisition programs</a> are from <em>new</em> entrants.</p></blockquote> </li> <li> <blockquote><p><i>Acquire with a commercially oriented process</i>. Congress has already granted the Department of Defense “<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/department-defense-other-transaction-authority-trends-new-rd-funding-paradigm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Other Transaction Authority</a>” (OTA) as a way to streamline acquisitions so they do not need to use <a href="https://aaf.dau.edu/aaf/contracting-cone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Federal Acquisition Regulations</a> (FAR). DIU has created a “<a href="https://www.diu.mil/work-with-us/dod-entities" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Commercial Solutions Opening</a>” to mirror a commercial procurement process that leverages OTA. DoD could be applying Commercial Solutions Openings on a much faster and broader scale.</p></blockquote> </li> </ul> <blockquote><p><strong><em>Integrate and create incentives for the Venture Capital/Private Equity ecosystem to invest at scale</em></strong>. The most important incentive would be for DoD to provide significant contracts for new entrants. (One new entrant which DIU introduced, <a href="https://www.anduril.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anduril</a>, just received a follow-on contract for $1 billion. This should be one of many such contracts and not an isolated example.) More examples could include: matching dollars for national security investments (similar to the <a href="https://www.sbir.gov/about" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SBIR program</a> but for investors), public/private partnership investment funds, incentivize venture capital funds with no-carry loans (debt funding) to, or tax holidays and incentives – to get $10’s of billions of private investment dollars in technology areas of national interest.</p></blockquote> <blockquote><p><strong><em>Buy where we can; build where we must</em></strong><b>.</b> <a href="https://acqnotes.com/acqnote/careerfields/commercial-off-the-shelf-cotspm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Congress mandated</a> that the Department of Defense should use commercial off-the-shelf technology wherever possible, but <a href="https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2021/06/30/commercial_products_and_services_for_the_warfighter_783606.html">the department fails to do this</a> (see <a href="https://federalnewsnetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ADI-letter-buy-v-build-5-26.pdf">industry letter </a>to the Department of Defense).</p></blockquote> <blockquote><p><strong><em>Coordinate with Allies</em></strong><b>. </b>Expand the<b> </b><a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/forging-an-alliance-innovation-base" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Security Innovation Base</a> (NSIB) to an <i>Allied </i>Security Innovation Base. Source commercial technology from allies.</p></blockquote> <p>This is a politically impossible problem for the Defense Department to solve alone. Changes at this scale will require Congressional and executive office action. Hard to imagine in the polarized political environment. But not impossible.</p> <blockquote><p><strong><em>Put Different People in Charge and reorganize around this new ecosystem</em></strong>. The threats, speed of change, and technologies the United States faces in this century require radically different mindsets and approaches than those it faced in the 20th century. Today’s leaders in the DoD, executive branch and Congress haven’t fully grasped the size, scale, and opportunity of the commercial innovation ecosystem or how to build innovation processes to move with the speed and urgency to match the pace China has set.</p></blockquote> <hr /> </div> <p>Change is hard – on the people and organizations inside the DoD who’ve spent years operating with one mindset to be asked to pivot to a new one.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">But America’s adversaries have exploited the boundaries and borders between its defense and commercial and economic interests. Current approaches to innovation across the government — both in the past and under the current administration — are piecemeal, incremental, increasingly less relevant, and insufficient.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">These are not problems of technology. It takes imagination, vision and the willingness to confront the status quo. So far, all are currently lacking.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Russia’s Black Sea flagship <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-big-loss-russia-is-sinking-moskva-missile-cruiser-2022-04-15/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Moskva on the bottom of the ocean</a> and the thousands of its destroyed tanks illustrate the consequences of a defense ecosystem living in the past. We need transformation not half-measures. The U.S. Department of Defense needs to change.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Historically, major defense reforms have come from inside the DoD, at other times Congress (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_Act_of_1947" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Security Act of 1947</a>, <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/reflections-looking-back-need-goldwater-nichols" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Goldwater-Nichols Act of 1986</a>) and others from the President (<a href="https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/History/Institutional/Council_of_War.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Roosevelt’s creation of the Joint Chiefs in 1942</a>, Eisenhower and the <a href="https://www.airforcemag.com/PDF/MagazineArchive/Magazine%20Documents/2017/July%202017/0717_Correll_Eisenhower.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Department of Defense Reorganization Act of 1958</a>.)</p> <p>It may be that the changes needed are so broad that the DoD can’t make them and Congress needs to act. 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(Think of the Deputy Secretary of Defense as the Chief Operating Officer of a company – but in this case the company has 3 million employees (~1.4 million active duty, 750,000 civilians, ~800,000 in the National Guard and Reserves.)</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/montage-2.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28582" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/montage-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/montage-2.jpg?fit=942%2C515&ssl=1" data-orig-size="942,515" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="montage 2" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/montage-2.jpg?fit=300%2C164&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/montage-2.jpg?fit=468%2C256&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28582 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/montage-2.jpg?resize=468%2C256&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="256" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/montage-2.jpg?w=942&ssl=1 942w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/montage-2.jpg?resize=300%2C164&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/montage-2.jpg?resize=150%2C82&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/montage-2.jpg?resize=768%2C420&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>She came to the Gordian Knot Center to discuss our unique approach to national security and innovation, and how our curriculum trains the next generation of innovators. The Deputy also heard from us <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2990542/deputy-secretary-of-defense-dr-kathleen-h-hicks-meets-with-software-industry-ac/">how the Department can better partner with and leverage the U.S. innovation ecosystem</a> to solve national security challenges.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Our goal for the Secretary’s visit was to give her a snapshot of how we’re supporting the Department of Defense priority of building an <em>innovation</em> workforce. We emphasized the critical distinction between a technical <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science,_technology,_engineering,_and_mathematics">STEM</a>-trained workforce (which we need) and an innovation workforce which we lack at scale.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Innovation incorporates lean methodologies (customer discovery, problem understanding, MVPs, Pivots), coupled with speed and urgency, and a culture where failure equals rapid learning. All of these are accomplished with minimal resources to deploy at scale products/services that are needed and wanted. We pointed out that Silicon Valley and Stanford have done this for 50 years. And China is outpacing us by adopting the very innovation methods we invented, integrating commercial technology with academic research, and delivering it to the Peoples Liberation Army.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Therein lies the focus of our Gordian Knot Center —connect STEM with policy education and leverage the synergies between the two to develop innovative leaders who understand technology and policy and can solve problems and deliver solutions at speed and scale.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong> </strong><strong>What We Presented<br /> </strong>A key component of the Gordian Knot Center’s mission is to prepare and inspire future leaders to contribute meaningfully as part of the innovation work force. We combine the unique strengths of Stanford and its location in Silicon Valley to solve problems across the spectrum of activities that create and sustain national power. The range of resources and capabilities we bring to the fight from the center’s unique position include:</p> <ul style="font-weight: 400;"> <li>The insights and expertise of Stanford international and national security policy leaders</li> <li>The technology insights and expertise of Stanford Engineering</li> <li>Exceptional students willing to help the country win the Great Power Competition</li> <li>Silicon Valley’s deep commercial technology ecosystem</li> <li>Our experience in rapid problem understanding, rapid iteration and deployment of solutions with speed and urgency</li> <li>Access to risk capital at scale</li> </ul> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/GKC-initiatives.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28584" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/gkc-initiatives/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/GKC-initiatives.jpg?fit=701%2C322&ssl=1" data-orig-size="701,322" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="GKC initiatives" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/GKC-initiatives.jpg?fit=300%2C138&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/GKC-initiatives.jpg?fit=468%2C215&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28584" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/GKC-initiatives.jpg?resize=468%2C215&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="215" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/GKC-initiatives.jpg?w=701&ssl=1 701w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/GKC-initiatives.jpg?resize=300%2C138&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/GKC-initiatives.jpg?resize=150%2C69&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">In the six months since we founded the Gordian Knot Center we have focused on six initiatives we wanted to share with Secretary Hicks. Rather than <a href="https://gordianknot.stanford.edu/people/joe-felter">Joe Felter</a> and I doing all of the talking, 25 of our students, scholars, mentors and alumni joined us to give the Secretary a 3-5 minute precis of their work, spanning across all six of the Gordian Knot initiatives. Highlights of these presentations include:</p> <ol> <li><strong>Hacking for Defense Teams – </strong><a href="https://www.vannevarlabs.com/">Vannevar Labs,</a> FLIP, Disinformatix</li> <li><strong>CONOPS Development </strong></li> <li><strong>National Security Education </strong>– <a href="https://tigpc21.sites.stanford.edu/">Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition</a></li> <li><strong>Defense Innovation Scholars Program</strong> – 25 students now, 50 by the end of the year</li> <li><strong>Policy Impact and Outreach</strong> –ONR Hedge Strategy, NSC Quad Emerging Technology Track 1.5 Conference</li> <li><strong>Internships and Professional Workforce Development – </strong>Innovation Workforce Vignettes</li> </ol> <p><iframe loading="lazy" title="Gordian Knot Center Roundtable w/Depty SecDef " src="https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/key/wh0sGiYBVmeduh" width="427" height="356" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" style="border:1px solid #CCC; border-width:1px; margin-bottom:5px; max-width: 100%;" allowfullscreen> </iframe> </p> <div style="margin-bottom:5px"> <strong> <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/gordian-knot-center-roundtable-wdepty-secdef" title="Gordian Knot Center Roundtable w/Depty SecDef " target="_blank">Gordian Knot Center Roundtable w/Depty SecDef </a> </strong> from <strong><a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank" target="_blank">Stanford University</a></strong> </div> <p style="font-weight: 400;">If you can’t see the slides click <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/sblank/gordian-knot-center-roundtable-wdepty-secdef" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Throughout the over 90 minutes session, Dr. Hicks posed insightful questions for the students and told our gathering that one of her key priorities is to <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2990542/deputy-secretary-of-defense-dr-kathleen-h-hicks-meets-with-software-industry-ac/">accelerate innovation adoption across DoD</a>, including organizational structure, processes, culture, and people.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">It was encouraging to hear the words.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>However, from where we sit..</strong></p> <ol style="font-weight: 400;"> <li>Our national security is now inexorably intertwined with commercial technology and is hindered by our lack of an integrated strategy at the highest level.</li> <li>Our adversaries have exploited the boundaries and borders between our defense and commercial and economic interests.</li> <li>Our current approaches – both in the past and current administration – to innovation across the government are piecemeal, incremental, increasingly less relevant and insufficient.</li> </ol> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Listening to the secretary’s conversations, I was further reminded of how much of a radical reinvention of our civil/military innovation relationship is necessary if we want to keep abreast of our adversaries. This would use DoD funding, private capital, dual-use startups, existing prime contractors and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federally_funded_research_and_development_centers">federal</a> labs in a new configuration. It would:</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Create a <em>new</em> defense ecosystem </strong>encompassing<strong> </strong>startups, scaleups at the bleeding edge, prime contractors as <em>integrators</em> of advanced technology, federally funded R&D centers<strong> </strong>refocused on areas not covered by commercial tech (nuclear, hypersonics,…). Make it permanent by creating innovation doctrine/policy.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Create<em><u> </u></em><em><u>new </u></em>national champions</strong> in dual-use commercial tech – AI/ML, Quantum, Space, drones, high performance computing, next gen networking, autonomy, biotech, underwater vehicles, shipyards, etc. who are not the traditional vendors<strong>. </strong>Do this by picking winners. Don’t give out door prizes. Contracts should be >$100M so <em>high- quality </em>venture-funded companies will play. Until we have new vendors on the <a href="https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2022/FY2022_Weapons.pdf">Major Defense Acquisition Program list</a>, all we have in the DoD is innovation <em>theater – </em>not innovation.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Acquire at Speed</strong>. Today, the average DoD major acquisition program takes 9-26 years to get a weapon in the hands of a warfighter. We need a requirements, budgeting and acquisition process that operates at commercial speed (18 months or less) which is 10x faster than DoD procurement cycles. Instead of writing requirements, DoD should <em>rapidly </em>assess solutions and engage warfighters in assessing and prototyping commercial solutions.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Integrate and incent the Venture Capital/Private Equity ecosystem to invest at scale</strong>. Ask funders what it would take to invest at scale – e.g. create massive tax holidays and incentives to get investment dollars in technology areas of national interest.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Recruit and develop leaders across the Defense Department prepared to meet contempory threats and reorganize around this new innovation ecosystem</strong>. <em>The DoD has world-class people and organization for a world that in many ways no longer exists</em>. The threats, speed of change and technologies we face in this century will require radically different mindsets and approaches than those we faced in the 20th century. Today’s senior DoD leaders must think and act differently than their predecessors of a decade ago. Leaders at every level must now understand the commercial ecosystem and how to move with the speed and urgency that China is setting.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">It was clear that Deputy Secretary Hicks understands the need for most of if not all these and more. Unfortunately, given the DoD budget is essentially fixed, creating new Primes and new national champions of the next generation of defense technologies becomes <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/zero-sum%20game">a zero-sum game</a>. It’s a politically impossible problem for the Defense Department to solve alone. Changes at this scale will require Congressional action. Hard to imagine in the polarized political environment. But not impossible.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">These are our challenges for not just the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation but for our nation. We’ve taken them on, in the words of President John F. Kennedy, “<a href="https://youtu.be/Ateh7hnEnik?t=100">not because they are easy, but because they are hard. because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we</a> intend to win.”</p> <iframe loading="lazy" width="100%" height="95" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F1260225076&width=false&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&visual=false&show_comments=false&color=false&show_user=false&show_reposts=false"></iframe> <div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="robots-nocontent sd-block sd-social sd-social-official sd-sharing"><h3 class="sd-title">Share this:</h3><div class="sd-content"><ul><li class="share-print"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-print sd-button" href="https://steveblank.com/2022/04/08/heres-what-happened-when-deputy-secretary-of-defense-dr-kathleen-hicks-visited-stanfords-gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation/" target="_blank" title="Click to print" ><span>Print</span></a></li><li class="share-email"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="" class="share-email sd-button" href="mailto:?subject=%5BShared%20Post%5D%20Here%E2%80%99s%20What%20Happened%20When%20Deputy%20Secretary%20of%20Defense%20Dr.%20Kathleen%20Hicks%20visited%20Stanford%E2%80%99s%20Gordian%20Knot%20Center%20for%20National%20Security%20Innovation&body=https%3A%2F%2Fsteveblank.com%2F2022%2F04%2F08%2Fheres-what-happened-when-deputy-secretary-of-defense-dr-kathleen-hicks-visited-stanfords-gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation%2F&share=email" target="_blank" title="Click to email a link to a friend" data-email-share-error-title="Do you have email set up?" data-email-share-error-text="If you're having problems sharing via email, you might not have email set up for your browser. 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class='button'><span>Like</span></span> <span class="loading">Loading...</span></div><span class='sd-text-color'></span><a class='sd-link-color'></a></div> <p class="postinfo"> Filed under: <a href="https://steveblank.com/category/gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation/" rel="category tag">Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation</a> | <a href="https://steveblank.com/2022/04/08/heres-what-happened-when-deputy-secretary-of-defense-dr-kathleen-hicks-visited-stanfords-gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation/#comments">3 Comments »</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="post-28428 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation category-technology" id="post-28428"> <h2><a href="https://steveblank.com/2022/03/22/the-quantum-technology-ecosystem-explained/" rel="bookmark">The Quantum Technology Ecosystem – Explained</a></h2> <div class="postinfo"> Posted on <span class="postdate">March 22, 2022</span> by steve blank </div> <div class="entry"> <p style="font-weight: 400; text-align: center;"><em>If you think you understand quantum mechanics,<br /> you don’t understand quantum mechanics</em></p> <p style="font-weight: 400; text-align: center;">Richard Feynman</p> <div id="attachment_28435" style="width: 258px" class="wp-caption alignright"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/IBM-Quantum-computer.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-28435" data-attachment-id="28435" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/ibm-quantum-computer/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/IBM-Quantum-computer.jpg?fit=800%2C533&ssl=1" data-orig-size="800,533" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="IBM Quantum computer" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/IBM-Quantum-computer.jpg?fit=300%2C200&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/IBM-Quantum-computer.jpg?fit=468%2C312&ssl=1" class="wp-image-28435" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/IBM-Quantum-computer.jpg?resize=248%2C165&ssl=1" alt="" width="248" height="165" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/IBM-Quantum-computer.jpg?resize=300%2C200&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/IBM-Quantum-computer.jpg?resize=150%2C100&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/IBM-Quantum-computer.jpg?resize=768%2C512&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/IBM-Quantum-computer.jpg?w=800&ssl=1 800w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 248px) 100vw, 248px" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-28435" class="wp-caption-text">IBM Quantum Computer</p></div> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Tens of billions of public and private capital are being invested in Quantum technologies. Countries across the world have realized that quantum technologies can be a major disruptor of existing businesses and change the balance of military power. So much so, that they have <a href="https://qureca.com/overview-on-quantum-initiatives-worldwide-update-mid-2021/">collectively invested ~$24 billion in in quantum research</a> and applications.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">At the same time, a week doesn’t go by without another story about a quantum technology milestone or another quantum company getting funded. Quantum has moved out of the lab and is now the focus of commercial companies and investors. In 2021 venture capital funds invested over $2 billion in 90+ Quantum technology companies. Over a <a href="https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/quantum-computing-venture-capital-funding">$1 billion of it going to Quantum computing</a> companies. In the last six months quantum computing companies <a href="https://ionq.com/news/october-01-2021-ionq-listed-on-nyse">IonQ</a>, <a href="https://www.dwavesys.com/investors/">D-Wave</a> and <a href="https://investors.rigetti.com/">Rigetti</a> went public at valuations close to a billion and half dollars. Pretty amazing for computers that won’t be any better than existing systems for at least another decade – or more. So why the excitement about quantum?</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>The Quantum Market Opportunity</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;">While most of the IPOs have been in Quantum Computing, Quantum technologies are used in three very different and distinct markets: Quantum <em>Computing</em>, Quantum <em>Communications</em> and Quantum <em>Sensing and Metrology</em>.<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-markets.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28439" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/10/22/quantum-computing-an-update/quantum-markets/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-markets.jpg?fit=1010%2C306&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1010,306" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="quantum markets" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-markets.jpg?fit=300%2C91&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-markets.jpg?fit=468%2C142&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28439 " src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-markets.jpg?resize=456%2C138&ssl=1" alt="" width="456" height="138" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-markets.jpg?w=1010&ssl=1 1010w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-markets.jpg?resize=300%2C91&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-markets.jpg?resize=150%2C45&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-markets.jpg?resize=768%2C233&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-markets.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 456px) 100vw, 456px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">All of three of these markets have the <em>potential</em> for being disruptive. In time Quantum <em>computing</em> could obsolete existing cryptography systems, but viable commercial applications are still speculative. Quantum <em>communications </em>could allow secure networking but are not a viable near-term business. Quantum <em>sensors </em>could create new types of medical devices, as well as new classes of military applications, but are still far from a scalable business.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">It’s a pretty safe bet that 1) the largest commercial applications of quantum technologies won’t be the ones these companies currently think they’re going to be, and 2) defense applications using quantum technologies will come first. 3) if and when they do show up they’ll destroy existing businesses and create new ones.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">We’ll describe each of these market segments in detail. But first a description of some quantum concepts.</p> <div style="background-color: #ededed;"> <div style="border: 1px solid black; padding: 16px;"> <h3><em><strong>Key Quantum Concepts </strong></em></h3> <p>Skip this section if all you want to know is that 1) quantum works, 2) yes, it is magic.</p> <p><strong>Quantum </strong> – The word “Quantum” refers to quantum mechanics which explains the behavior and properties of atomic or subatomic particles, such as electrons, neutrinos, and photons.</p> <p><strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/superposition.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28444" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/superposition/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/superposition.jpg?fit=205%2C187&ssl=1" data-orig-size="205,187" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="superposition" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/superposition.jpg?fit=205%2C187&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/superposition.jpg?fit=205%2C187&ssl=1" class=" wp-image-28444 alignleft" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/superposition.jpg?resize=62%2C57&ssl=1" alt="" width="62" height="57" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/superposition.jpg?resize=150%2C137&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/superposition.jpg?w=205&ssl=1 205w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 62px) 100vw, 62px" /></a>Superposition</strong> – quantum particles exist in many possible states at the same time. So a particle is described as a “superposition” of all those possible states. They fluctuate until observed and measured. Superposition underpins a number of potential quantum computing applications.</p> <p><strong> <a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/entaglement.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28443" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/entaglement/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/entaglement.jpg?fit=200%2C157&ssl=1" data-orig-size="200,157" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="entaglement" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/entaglement.jpg?fit=200%2C157&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/entaglement.jpg?fit=200%2C157&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-28443" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/entaglement.jpg?resize=63%2C49&ssl=1" alt="" width="63" height="49" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/entaglement.jpg?resize=150%2C118&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/entaglement.jpg?w=200&ssl=1 200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 63px) 100vw, 63px" /></a>Entanglement</strong> – is what Einstein called “spooky action at a distance.” Two or more quantum objects can be linked so that measurement of one dictates the outcomes for the other, regardless of how far apart they are. Entanglement underpins a number of potential quantum communications applications.</p> <p><strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/observation.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28442" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/observation/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/observation.jpg?fit=201%2C196&ssl=1" data-orig-size="201,196" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="observation" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/observation.jpg?fit=201%2C196&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/observation.jpg?fit=201%2C196&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-28442" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/observation.jpg?resize=57%2C55&ssl=1" alt="" width="57" height="55" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/observation.jpg?resize=150%2C146&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/observation.jpg?w=201&ssl=1 201w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 57px) 100vw, 57px" /></a>Observation – </strong>Superposition and entanglement only exist as long as quantum particles are not observed or measured. If you observe the quantum state you can get information, but it results in the collapse of the quantum system.</p> <p><strong>Qu<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/qubit-and-superposition.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28446" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/qubit-and-superposition/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/qubit-and-superposition-e1647572151870.jpg?fit=387%2C288&ssl=1" data-orig-size="387,288" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="qubit and superposition" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/qubit-and-superposition-e1647572151870.jpg?fit=300%2C223&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/qubit-and-superposition-e1647572151870.jpg?fit=387%2C288&ssl=1" class="wp-image-28446 alignleft" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/qubit-and-superposition-e1647572151870-300x223.jpg?resize=73%2C54&ssl=1" alt="" width="73" height="54" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/qubit-and-superposition-e1647572151870.jpg?resize=300%2C223&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/qubit-and-superposition-e1647572151870.jpg?resize=150%2C112&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/qubit-and-superposition-e1647572151870.jpg?w=387&ssl=1 387w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 73px) 100vw, 73px" /></a>bit</strong> – is short for a quantum bit. It is a quantum computing element that leverages the principle of superposition to encode information via one of four methods: spin, trapped atoms and ions, photons, or superconducting circuits.</p> <p><em><strong>Quantum Computers – Background</strong></em></p> <p>Quantum computers are a really cool idea. They harness the unique behavior of quantum physics—such as superposition, entanglement, and quantum interference—and apply it to computing.</p> <p>In a classical computer transistors can represent two states – either a 0 or 1. Instead of transistors Quantum computers use quantum bits (called <em>qubits.) Qubits </em>exist in <em>superposition</em> – both in 0 and 1 state simultaneously.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Classic-vs-quantum-computers.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28449" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/classic-vs-quantum-computers/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Classic-vs-quantum-computers.jpg?fit=541%2C553&ssl=1" data-orig-size="541,553" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Classic vs quantum computers" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Classic-vs-quantum-computers.jpg?fit=293%2C300&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Classic-vs-quantum-computers.jpg?fit=468%2C478&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28449 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Classic-vs-quantum-computers.jpg?resize=468%2C478&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="478" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Classic-vs-quantum-computers.jpg?w=541&ssl=1 541w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Classic-vs-quantum-computers.jpg?resize=293%2C300&ssl=1 293w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Classic-vs-quantum-computers.jpg?resize=147%2C150&ssl=1 147w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p>Classic computers use transistors as the physical building blocks of logic. In quantum computers they may use trapped ions, superconducting loops, quantum dots or vacancies in a diamond. The jury is still out.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Buidling-a-qubit.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28459" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/buidling-a-qubit/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Buidling-a-qubit.jpg?fit=841%2C439&ssl=1" data-orig-size="841,439" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Buidling a qubit" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Buidling-a-qubit.jpg?fit=300%2C157&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Buidling-a-qubit.jpg?fit=468%2C244&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28459 size-full" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Buidling-a-qubit.jpg?resize=468%2C244&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="244" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Buidling-a-qubit.jpg?w=841&ssl=1 841w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Buidling-a-qubit.jpg?resize=300%2C157&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Buidling-a-qubit.jpg?resize=150%2C78&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Buidling-a-qubit.jpg?resize=768%2C401&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p>In a classic computer 2-14 transistors make up the seven basic logic gates (AND, OR, NAND, etc.) In a quantum computer building a single logical Qubit require a minimum of 9 but more likely 100’s or thousands of physical Qubits (to make up for error correction, stability, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_decoherence">decoherence</a> and fault tolerance.)</p> <p>In a classical computer compute-power increases linearly with the number of transistors and clock speed. In a Quantum computer compute-power increases exponentially with the addition of each logical qubit.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/physical-to-logical-qubit-1.png?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28485" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/10/22/quantum-computing-an-update/physical-to-logical-qubit-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/physical-to-logical-qubit-1.png?fit=924%2C376&ssl=1" data-orig-size="924,376" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="physical to logical qubit" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/physical-to-logical-qubit-1.png?fit=300%2C122&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/physical-to-logical-qubit-1.png?fit=468%2C190&ssl=1" class="alignright wp-image-28485 " src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/physical-to-logical-qubit-1.png?resize=406%2C165&ssl=1" alt="" width="406" height="165" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/physical-to-logical-qubit-1.png?w=924&ssl=1 924w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/physical-to-logical-qubit-1.png?resize=300%2C122&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/physical-to-logical-qubit-1.png?resize=150%2C61&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/physical-to-logical-qubit-1.png?resize=768%2C313&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 406px) 100vw, 406px" /></a></p> <p>But qubits have high error rates and need to be ultracold. In contrast classical computers have very low error rates and operate at room temperature.</p> <p>Finally, classical computers are great for general purpose computing. But quantum computers can theoretically solve <em>some </em>complex algorithms/ problems exponentially faster than a classical computer. And with a sufficient number of logical Qubits they can become a <em>Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer</em> (CRQC). And this is where Quantum computers become very interesting and relevant for both commercial and national security. (More below.)</p> </div> </div> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Types of Quantum Computers</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Quantum computers could <em>potentially</em> do things at speeds current computers cannot. Think of the difference of how fast you can count on your fingers versus how fast today’s computers can count. That’s the same order of magnitude speed-up a quantum computer could have over today’s computers for certain applications.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-computing.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28456" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/quantum-computing/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-computing.jpg?fit=937%2C472&ssl=1" data-orig-size="937,472" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="quantum computing" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-computing.jpg?fit=300%2C151&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-computing.jpg?fit=468%2C236&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28456 " src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-computing.jpg?resize=431%2C217&ssl=1" alt="" width="431" height="217" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-computing.jpg?w=937&ssl=1 937w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-computing.jpg?resize=300%2C151&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-computing.jpg?resize=150%2C76&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/quantum-computing.jpg?resize=768%2C387&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 431px) 100vw, 431px" /></a>Quantum computers fall into four categories:</p> <ol> <li>Quantum Emulator/Simulator</li> <li>Quantum Annealer</li> <li>NISQ – Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum</li> <li>Universal Quantum Computer – which can be a <em>Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer (CRQC)</em></li> </ol> <p style="font-weight: 400;">When you remove all the marketing hype, the only type that matters is #4 – a Universal Quantum Computer. And we’re at least a decade or more away from having those.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Quantum Emulator/Simulator<br /> </em>These are classical computers that you can buy today that simulate quantum algorithms. They make it easy to test and debug a quantum algorithm that someday may be able to run on a Universal Quantum Computer. Since they don’t use any quantum hardware they are no faster than standard computers.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Quantum Annealer </em>is a special purpose quantum computer designed to only run combinatorial optimization problems, <em>not</em> general-purpose computing, or cryptography problems. <a href="http://www.dwavesys.com/">D-Wave</a> has defined and owned this space. While they have more physical Qubits than any other current system they are not organized as gate-based logical qubits. Currently this is a nascent commercial technology in search of a future viable market.<a href="https://steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Four-Types-of-Quantum-computers.jpg"><br /> </a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://quantum-journal.org/papers/q-2018-08-06-79/pdf/"><em>Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum</em></a> (NISQ) computers. Think of these as <em>prototypes</em> of a Universal Quantum Computer – with several orders of magnitude fewer bits. (They currently have 50-100 qubits, limited gate depths, and short coherence times.) As they are short several orders of magnitude of Qubits, NISQ computers cannot perform any useful computation, however they are a necessary phase in the learning, especially to drive total system and software learning in parallel to the hardware development. Think of them as the training wheels for future universal quantum computers.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Universal Quantum Computers / Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQC)<br /> </em>This is the ultimate goal. If you could build a universal quantum computer with fault tolerance (i.e. millions of error corrected physical qubits resulting in thousands of logical Qubits), you could run quantum algorithms in cryptography, search and optimization, quantum systems simulations, and linear equations solvers. (See <a href="https://quantumalgorithmzoo.org/">here</a> for a list of hundreds quantum algorithms.) These all would dramatically outperform classical computation on large complex problems that grow exponentially as more variables are considered. Classical computers can’t attack these problems in reasonable times without so many approximations that the result is useless. We simply run out of time and transistors with classical computing on these problems. These special algorithms are <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1511.04206.pdf">what make quantum computers <em>potentially </em>valuable</a>. For example, <a href="https://quantum-computing.ibm.com/composer/docs/iqx/guide/grovers-algorithm">Grover’s algorithm</a> solves the problem for the unstructured search of data. Further, quantum computers are very good at minimization / optimizations…think optimizing complex supply chains, energy states to form complex molecules, financial models, etc.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">However, while all of these algorithms <em>might</em> have commercial potential one day, no one has yet to come up with a use for them that would radically transform any business or military application. Except for one – and that one keeps people awake at night.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">It’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvTqbM5Dq4Q">Shor’s algorithm</a> for integer factorization – an algorithm that underlies much of existing public cryptography systems.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The security of today’s public key cryptography systems rests on the assumption that breaking into those with a thousand or more digits is practically impossible. It requires factoring into large prime numbers (e.g., RSA) or elliptic curve (e.g., ECDSA, ECDH) or finite fields (DSA) that can’t be done with any type of classic computer regardless of how large. <a href="https://interestingengineering.com/how-peter-shors-algorithm-dooms-rsa-encryption-to-failure">Shor’s factorization algorithm</a> <u>can crack these codes if run on a Universal Quantum Computer</u>. Uh-oh!</p> <div style="background-color: #ededed;"> <div style="border: 1px solid black; padding: 16px;"> <p><strong><em>Impact of a Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer (CRQC) </em></strong>Skip this section if you don’t care about cryptography.</p> <p>Not only would a Universal Quantum Computer running Shor’s algorithm make today’s public key algorithms (used for asymmetric key exchanges and digital signatures) useless, someone can implement a “harvest-now-and-decrypt-later” attack to record encrypted documents now with intent to decrypt them in the future. That means everything you send encrypted today will be able to be read retrospectively. Many applications – from ATMs to emails – would be vulnerable—unless we replace those algorithms with those that are “quantum-safe”.</p> <p>When Will Current Cryptographic Systems Be Vulnerable?</p> <p>The good news is that we’re nowhere near having any viable Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer, now or in the next few years. However, you can estimate when this <em>will</em> happen by calculating how many logical Qubits are needed to run <a href="https://quantum-computing.ibm.com/composer/docs/iqx/guide/shors-algorithm">Shor’s Algorthim</a> and how long it will it take to break these crypto systems. There are lots of people tracking these numbers (see <a href="https://globalriskinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/2021-03-MOSCA-Quantum-Risk-February-Report-V2.pdf">here</a> and <a href="https://globalriskinstitute.org/publications/2021-quantum-threat-timeline-report/">here</a>). Their estimate is that using 8,194 logical qubits using 22.27 million physical qubits, it would take a quantum computer 20 minutes to break RSA-2048. The best estimate is that this might be possible in 8 to 20 years.</p> <p><em>Post-Quantum / Quantum-Resistant Codes</em></p> <p>That means if you want to protect the content you’re sending now, you need to migrate to new Post-Quantum /Quantum-Resistant Codes. But there are three things to consider in doing so:</p> <ol> <li><strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Migration-time.png?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28480" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/migration-time/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Migration-time.png?fit=587%2C196&ssl=1" data-orig-size="587,196" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Migration time" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Migration-time.png?fit=300%2C100&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Migration-time.png?fit=468%2C156&ssl=1" class="alignright wp-image-28480" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Migration-time.png?resize=425%2C142&ssl=1" alt="" width="425" height="142" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Migration-time.png?w=587&ssl=1 587w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Migration-time.png?resize=300%2C100&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Migration-time.png?resize=150%2C50&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 425px) 100vw, 425px" /></a>shelf-life time</strong>: the number of years the information must be protected by cyber-systems</li> <li><strong>migration time</strong>: the number of years needed to properly and safely migrate the system to a quantum-safe solution</li> <li><strong>threat timeline</strong>: the number of years before threat actors will be able to break the quantum-vulnerable systems</li> </ol> <p>These new cryptographic systems would secure against both quantum and conventional computers and can interoperate with existing communication protocols and networks. The symmetric key algorithms of the <a href="https://apps.nsa.gov/iaarchive/programs/iad-initiatives/cnsa-suite.cfm">Commercial National Security Algorithm (CNSA) Suite</a> were selected to be secure for national security systems usage even if a CRQC is developed.</p> <p>Cryptographic schemes that commercial industry believes are quantum-safe include <a href="https://www.nsa.gov/Cybersecurity/NSAs-Cybersecurity-Perspective-on-Post-Quantum-Cryptography-Algorithms/">lattice-based cryptography, hash trees</a>, multivariate equations, and super-singular isogeny elliptic curves.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"> </div> </div> <p>Estimates of when you can actually buy a fully error-corrected quantum computers vary from “never” to somewhere between 8 to 20 years from now. (Some optimists believe even earlier.)</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/when-q-computers-1.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28492" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/when-q-computers-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/when-q-computers-1.jpg?fit=905%2C470&ssl=1" data-orig-size="905,470" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="when q computers" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/when-q-computers-1.jpg?fit=300%2C156&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/when-q-computers-1.jpg?fit=468%2C243&ssl=1" class="wp-image-28492 aligncenter" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/when-q-computers-1.jpg?resize=468%2C243&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="243" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/when-q-computers-1.jpg?w=905&ssl=1 905w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/when-q-computers-1.jpg?resize=300%2C156&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/when-q-computers-1.jpg?resize=150%2C78&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/when-q-computers-1.jpg?resize=768%2C399&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Quantum Communication</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Quantum communications <strong>≠</strong> quantum computers. A quantum network’s value comes from its ability to distribute entanglement. These communication devices manipulate the quantum properties of photons/particles of light to build Quantum Networks.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-comm-mkt.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28458" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2024/10/22/quantum-computing-an-update/quantum-comm-mkt/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-comm-mkt.jpg?fit=1004%2C494&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1004,494" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Quantum comm mkt" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-comm-mkt.jpg?fit=300%2C148&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-comm-mkt.jpg?fit=468%2C230&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28458" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-comm-mkt.jpg?resize=468%2C230&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="230" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-comm-mkt.jpg?w=1004&ssl=1 1004w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-comm-mkt.jpg?resize=300%2C148&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-comm-mkt.jpg?resize=150%2C74&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-comm-mkt.jpg?resize=768%2C378&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-comm-mkt.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>This market includes secure quantum key distribution, clock synchronization, random number generation and networking of quantum military sensors, computers, and other systems.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Quantum Cryptography/Quantum Key Distribution<br /> </em>Quantum Cryptography/Quantum Key Distribution can distribute keys between authorized partners connected by a quantum channel and a classical authenticated channel. It can be implemented via fiber optics or free space transmission. China transmitted entangled photons (at one pair of entangled particles per second) over 1,200 km in a satellite link, using the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_Experiments_at_Space_Scale">Micius satellite</a>.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-key-distribution.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28453" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/quantum-key-distribution/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-key-distribution.jpg?fit=560%2C220&ssl=1" data-orig-size="560,220" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Quantum key distribution" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-key-distribution.jpg?fit=300%2C118&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-key-distribution.jpg?fit=468%2C184&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-28453" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-key-distribution.jpg?resize=249%2C98&ssl=1" alt="" width="249" height="98" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-key-distribution.jpg?w=560&ssl=1 560w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-key-distribution.jpg?resize=300%2C118&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-key-distribution.jpg?resize=150%2C59&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 249px) 100vw, 249px" /></a>The Good: it can detect the presence of an eavesdropper, a feature not provided in standard cryptography. The Bad: Quantum Key Distribution can’t be implemented in software or as a service on a network and cannot be easily integrated into existing network equipment. It lacks flexibility for upgrades or security patches. Securing and validating Quantum Key Distribution is hard and it’s only one part of a cryptographic system.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The view from the National Security Agency (NSA) is that quantum-resistant (or post-quantum) cryptography is a more cost effective and easily maintained solution than quantum key distribution. <em>NSA does not support the usage of QKD or QC to protect communications in National Security Systems</em>. (See <a href="https://www.nsa.gov/Cybersecurity/Quantum-Key-Distribution-QKD-and-Quantum-Cryptography-QC/">here</a>.) They do not anticipate certifying or approving any Quantum Cryptography/Quantum Key Distribution security products for usage by <a href="https://csrc.nist.gov/glossary/term/national_security_system">National Security System</a> customers unless these limitations are overcome. However, if you’re a commercial company these systems may be worth exploring.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Quantum Random Number Generators (GRGs)<br /> </em>Commercial Quantum Random Number Generators that use quantum effects (entanglement) to generate nondeterministic randomness are available today. (Government agencies can already make quality random numbers and don’t need these devices.)</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Random number generators will remain secure even when a Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer is built.</p> <h3 style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Quantum Sensing and Metrology</strong></h3> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Quantum sensors <strong>≠</strong> Quantum computers.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-sensing.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28455" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/quantum-sensing/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-sensing.jpg?fit=937%2C474&ssl=1" data-orig-size="937,474" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Quantum sensing" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-sensing.jpg?fit=300%2C152&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-sensing.jpg?fit=468%2C237&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28455" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-sensing.jpg?resize=468%2C237&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="237" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-sensing.jpg?w=937&ssl=1 937w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-sensing.jpg?resize=300%2C152&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-sensing.jpg?resize=150%2C76&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-sensing.jpg?resize=768%2C389&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>This segment consists of Quantum <em>Sensing</em> (quantum magnetometers, gravimeters, …), Quantum <em>Timing</em> (precise time measurement and distribution), and Quantum <em>Imaging</em> (quantum radar, low-SNR imaging, …) Each of these areas can create entirely new commercial products or entire new industries e.g. new classes of medical devices and military systems, e.g. anti-submarine warfare, detecting stealth aircraft, finding hidden tunnels and weapons of mass destruction. Some of these are achievable in the near term.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Quantum Timing<br /> </em>First-generation quantum timing devices already exist as microwave atomic clocks. They are used in GPS satellites to triangulate accurate positioning. The Internet and computer networks use network time servers and the NTP protocol to receive the atomic clock time from either the GPS system or a radio transmission.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">The next generation of quantum clocks are even more accurate and use laser-cooled single <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ion">ions</a> confined together in an electromagnetic ion trap. This increased accuracy is not only important for scientists attempting to measure dark matter and gravitational waves, but miniaturized/ more accurate atomic clocks will allow precision navigation in GPS- degraded/denied areas, e.g. in commercial and military aircraft, in tunnels and caves, etc.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Quantum Imaging<br /> </em>Quantum imaging is one of the most interesting and near-term applications. First generation <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetometer">magnetometers</a> such as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQUID">superconducting quantum interference devices (SQUIDs)</a> already exist. New quantum sensor types of imaging devices use entangled light, accelerometers, magnetometers, electrometers, gravity sensors. These allow measurements of frequency, acceleration, rotation rates, electric and magnetic fields, photons, or temperature with levels of extreme sensitivity and accuracy.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">These new sensors use a variety of quantum effects: electronic, magnetic, or vibrational states or spin qubits, neutral atoms, or trapped ions. Or they use quantum coherence to measure a physical quantity. Or use quantum entanglement to improve the sensitivity or precision of a measurement, beyond what is possible classically.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/ocean-topo.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28496" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/ocean-topo/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/ocean-topo.jpg?fit=1024%2C880&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1024,880" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="ocean topo" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/ocean-topo.jpg?fit=300%2C258&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/ocean-topo.jpg?fit=468%2C402&ssl=1" class=" wp-image-28496 alignright" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/ocean-topo.jpg?resize=228%2C196&ssl=1" alt="" width="228" height="196" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/ocean-topo.jpg?w=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/ocean-topo.jpg?resize=300%2C258&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/ocean-topo.jpg?resize=150%2C129&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/ocean-topo.jpg?resize=768%2C660&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/ocean-topo.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 228px) 100vw, 228px" /></a>Quantum Imaging applications can have immediate uses in archeology, and profound military applications. For example, submarine detection using quantum magnetometers or satellite gravimeters could make the ocean transparent. It would compromise the survivability of sea-based nuclear deterrent by detecting and tracking subs deep underwater.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Quantum sensors and quantum radar from companies like <a href="https://www.rydbergtechnologies.com/">Rydberg</a> can <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/niac/2022/Cryospheric_Rydberg_Radar">be game changers</a>.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;">Gravimeters or quantum magnetometers could also detect concealed tunnels, bunkers, and nuclear materials. Magnetic resonance imaging could remotely ID chemical and biological agents. Quantum radar or LIDAR would enable extreme detection of electromagnetic emissions, enhancing ELINT and electronic warfare capabilities. It can use fewer emissions to get the same detection result, for better detection accuracy at the same power levels – even detecting stealth aircraft.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Gravity-cartography.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28452" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/gravity-cartography/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Gravity-cartography.jpg?fit=561%2C429&ssl=1" data-orig-size="561,429" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Gravity cartography" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Gravity-cartography.jpg?fit=300%2C229&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Gravity-cartography.jpg?fit=468%2C358&ssl=1" class=" wp-image-28452 alignright" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Gravity-cartography.jpg?resize=271%2C207&ssl=1" alt="" width="271" height="207" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Gravity-cartography.jpg?w=561&ssl=1 561w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Gravity-cartography.jpg?resize=300%2C229&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Gravity-cartography.jpg?resize=150%2C115&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 271px) 100vw, 271px" /></a>Finally, <em>Ghost imaging </em>uses the quantum properties of light to detect distant objects using very weak illumination beams that are difficult for the imaged target to detect. It can increase the accuracy and lessen the amount of radiation exposed to a patient during x-rays. It can see through smoke and clouds. <em>Quantum illumination </em>is similar to ghost imaging but could provide an even greater sensitivity.</p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>National and Commercial Efforts<br /> </strong>Countries across the world are making major investments <a href="https://qureca.com/overview-on-quantum-initiatives-worldwide-update-mid-2021/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">~$24 billion in 2021</a> – in quantum research and applications.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-VC-map-of-companies.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28498" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/quantum-vc-map-of-companies/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-VC-map-of-companies.jpg?fit=1692%2C1166&ssl=1" data-orig-size="1692,1166" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Quantum VC map of companies" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-VC-map-of-companies.jpg?fit=300%2C207&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-VC-map-of-companies.jpg?fit=468%2C323&ssl=1" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-28498" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-VC-map-of-companies.jpg?resize=468%2C323&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="323" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-VC-map-of-companies.jpg?w=1692&ssl=1 1692w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-VC-map-of-companies.jpg?resize=300%2C207&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-VC-map-of-companies.jpg?resize=1024%2C706&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-VC-map-of-companies.jpg?resize=150%2C103&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-VC-map-of-companies.jpg?resize=768%2C529&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-VC-map-of-companies.jpg?resize=1536%2C1058&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-VC-map-of-companies.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Quantum-VC-map-of-companies.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Lessons Learned</strong></p> <blockquote> <ul> <li>Quantum technologies are emerging and disruptive to companies and defense</li> <li>Quantum technologies cover Quantum <em>Computing</em>, Quantum <em>Communications</em> and Quantum <em>Sensing and Metrology</em> <ul> <li>Quantum <em>computing</em> could obsolete existing cryptography systems</li> <li>Quantum <em>communication </em>could allow secure cryptography key distribution and networking of quantum sensors and computers</li> <li>Quantum <em>sensors</em> could make the ocean transparent for Anti-submarine warfare, create unjammable A2/AD, detect stealth aircraft, find hidden tunnels and weapons of mass destruction, etc.</li> </ul> </li> <li>A few of these technologies are available now, some in the next 5 years and a few are a decade or more out</li> <li>Tens of billions of public and private capital dollars are being invested in them</li> <li>Defense applications will come first</li> <li>The largest commercial applications won’t be the ones we currently think they’re going to be <ul> <li>when they do show up they’ll destroy existing businesses and create new ones</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </blockquote> <iframe 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rel="category tag">Technology</a> | <a href="https://steveblank.com/2022/03/22/the-quantum-technology-ecosystem-explained/#comments">2 Comments »</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="post-28287 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-gordian-knot-center-for-national-security-innovation category-technology" id="post-28287"> <h2><a href="https://steveblank.com/2022/01/25/the-semiconductor-ecosystem/" rel="bookmark">The Semiconductor Ecosystem – Explained</a></h2> <div class="postinfo"> Posted on <span class="postdate">January 25, 2022</span> by steve blank </div> <div class="entry"> <p style="text-align: left;">The last year has seen a ton written about the semiconductor industry: chip shortages, the <a href="https://www.semiconductors.org/chips/">CHIPS Act</a>, our dependence on Taiwan and <a href="https://www.tsmc.com/english">TSMC</a>, China, etc.<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem-detail.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28305" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/semi-ecosystem-detail/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem-detail.jpg?fit=454%2C428&ssl=1" data-orig-size="454,428" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="semi ecosystem detail" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem-detail.jpg?fit=300%2C283&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem-detail.jpg?fit=454%2C428&ssl=1" class="alignright wp-image-28305" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem-detail.jpg?resize=112%2C106&ssl=1" alt="" width="112" height="106" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem-detail.jpg?resize=150%2C141&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem-detail.jpg?resize=300%2C283&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem-detail.jpg?w=454&ssl=1 454w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 112px) 100vw, 112px" /></a></p> <p>But despite all this talk about chips and semiconductors, few understand how the industry is structured. I’ve found the best way to understand something complicated is to diagram it out, step by step. So here’s a quick pictorial tutorial on how the industry works.</p> <hr /> <h3><strong>The Semiconductor Ecosystem</strong></h3> <p>We’re seeing the digital transformation of <em>everything</em>. Semiconductors – chips that process digital information — are in almost everything: computers, cars, home appliances, medical equipment, etc. Semiconductor companies will sell <a href="https://www.semiconductors.org/global-semiconductor-sales-increase-24-year-to-year-in-october-annual-sales-projected-to-increase-26-in-2021-exceed-600-billion-in-2022/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$600 billion</a> worth of chips this year.</p> <p>Looking at the figure below, the industry seems pretty simple. Companies in the semiconductor ecosystem make chips (the triangle on the left) and sell them to companies and government agencies (on the right). Those companies and government agencies then design the chips into systems and devices (e.g. iPhones, PCs, airplanes, cloud computing, etc.), and sell them to consumers, businesses, and governments. The revenue of products that contain chips is worth tens of <strong>t</strong>rillions of dollars.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28304" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/semi-ecosystem/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem.jpg?fit=889%2C504&ssl=1" data-orig-size="889,504" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="semi ecosystem" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem.jpg?fit=300%2C170&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem.jpg?fit=468%2C265&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28304" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem.jpg?resize=468%2C265&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="265" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem.jpg?w=889&ssl=1 889w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem.jpg?resize=300%2C170&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem.jpg?resize=150%2C85&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/semi-ecosystem.jpg?resize=768%2C435&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p>Yet, given how large it is, the industry remains a mystery to most. If you do think of the semiconductor industry at all, you may picture workers in bunny suits in a fab clean room (the chip factory) holding a 12” wafer. Yet it is a business that manipulates materials an atom at a time and its factories cost 10s of billions of dollars to build. (By the way, that wafer has two <em>trillion </em>transistors on it.)<a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clean-room-holding-a-wafer.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28299" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/workersinwhitesuitshandsholdingasiliconwafersat/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clean-room-holding-a-wafer.jpg?fit=3264%2C2448&ssl=1" data-orig-size="3264,2448" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"Shutterstock","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"Copyright (c) 2017 MS Mikel\/Shutterstock. No use without permission.","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"Workers,In,White,Suits,Hands,Holding,A,Silicon,Wafers,At","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Workers,In,White,Suits,Hands,Holding,A,Silicon,Wafers,At" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clean-room-holding-a-wafer.jpg?fit=300%2C225&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clean-room-holding-a-wafer.jpg?fit=468%2C351&ssl=1" class="alignleft wp-image-28299" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clean-room-holding-a-wafer.jpg?resize=275%2C206&ssl=1" alt="" width="275" height="206" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clean-room-holding-a-wafer.jpg?resize=300%2C225&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clean-room-holding-a-wafer.jpg?resize=1024%2C768&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clean-room-holding-a-wafer.jpg?resize=150%2C113&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clean-room-holding-a-wafer.jpg?resize=768%2C576&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clean-room-holding-a-wafer.jpg?resize=1536%2C1152&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clean-room-holding-a-wafer.jpg?resize=2048%2C1536&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clean-room-holding-a-wafer.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/clean-room-holding-a-wafer.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 275px) 100vw, 275px" /></a></p> <p>If you were able to look inside the simple triangle representing the semiconductor industry, instead of a single company making chips, you would find an industry with hundreds of companies, all dependent on each other. Taken as a whole it’s pretty overwhelming, so let’s describe one part of the ecosystem at a time. (Warning – this is a <em>simplified</em> view of a very complex industry.)</p> <h3><strong>Semiconductor Industry Segments</strong></h3> <p>The semiconductor industry has seven different types of companies. Each of these distinct industry segments feeds its resources up the value chain to the next until finally a chip factory (a “Fab”) has all the designs, equipment, and materials necessary to manufacture a chip. Taken from the bottom up these semiconductor industry segments are:</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/semi-eco-plus-OSAT.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28410" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/semi-eco-plus-osat/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/semi-eco-plus-OSAT.jpg?fit=533%2C378&ssl=1" data-orig-size="533,378" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="semi eco plus OSAT" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/semi-eco-plus-OSAT.jpg?fit=300%2C213&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/semi-eco-plus-OSAT.jpg?fit=468%2C332&ssl=1" class="wp-image-28410 alignright" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/semi-eco-plus-OSAT.jpg?resize=243%2C172&ssl=1" alt="" width="243" height="172" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/semi-eco-plus-OSAT.jpg?w=533&ssl=1 533w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/semi-eco-plus-OSAT.jpg?resize=300%2C213&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/semi-eco-plus-OSAT.jpg?resize=150%2C106&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 243px) 100vw, 243px" /></a></p> <ol> <li>Chip Intellectual Property (IP) Cores</li> <li>Electronic Design Automation (EDA) Tools</li> <li>Specialized Materials</li> <li>Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE)</li> <li>“Fabless” Chip Companies</li> <li>Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs)</li> <li>Chip Foundries</li> <li>Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT)</li> </ol> <p>The following sections below provide more detail about each of these eight semiconductor industry segments.</p> <h3><strong>Chip Intellectual Property (IP) Cores</strong></h3> <ul> <li>The <em>design</em> of a chip may be owned by a single company, or…</li> <li>Some companies license their chip designs – as software building blocks, called IP Cores – for wide use</li> <li>There are over 150 companies that sell chip IP Cores</li> <li>For example, Apple licenses IP Cores from <a href="https://www.arm.com/">ARM</a> as a building block of their microprocessors in their iPhones and Computers</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-IP-cores-2.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28324" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/chip-ip-cores-2-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-IP-cores-2.jpg?fit=596%2C48&ssl=1" data-orig-size="596,48" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Chip IP cores 2" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-IP-cores-2.jpg?fit=300%2C24&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-IP-cores-2.jpg?fit=468%2C38&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28324" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-IP-cores-2.jpg?resize=468%2C38&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="38" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-IP-cores-2.jpg?w=596&ssl=1 596w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-IP-cores-2.jpg?resize=300%2C24&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-IP-cores-2.jpg?resize=150%2C12&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <h3><strong>Electronic Design Automation (EDA) Tools</strong></h3> <ul> <li>Engineers design chips (adding their own designs on top of any IP cores they’ve bought) using specialized Electronic Design Automation (EDA) software</li> <li>The industry is dominated by three U.S. vendors – <a href="https://www.cadence.com/en_US/home.html">Cadence</a>, <a href="https://eda.sw.siemens.com/en-US/">Mentor</a> (now part of Siemens) and <a href="https://www.synopsys.com/">Synopsys</a></li> <li>It takes a large engineering team using these EDA tools 2-3 years to design a complex logic chip like a microprocessor used inside a phone, computer or server. (See the figure of the design process below.)</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-Design-flow.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28306" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/eda-design-flow/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-Design-flow.jpg?fit=938%2C67&ssl=1" data-orig-size="938,67" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="EDA Design flow" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-Design-flow.jpg?fit=300%2C21&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-Design-flow.jpg?fit=468%2C33&ssl=1" class="aligncenter wp-image-28306" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-Design-flow.jpg?resize=468%2C34&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="34" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-Design-flow.jpg?w=938&ssl=1 938w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-Design-flow.jpg?resize=300%2C21&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-Design-flow.jpg?resize=150%2C11&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-Design-flow.jpg?resize=768%2C55&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <ul> <li>Today, as logic chips continue to become more complex, all Electronic Design Automation companies are beginning to insert Artificial Intelligence aids to automate and speed up the process</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-tools-2.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28332" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/eda-tools-2-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-tools-2.jpg?fit=633%2C92&ssl=1" data-orig-size="633,92" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="EDA tools 2" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-tools-2.jpg?fit=300%2C44&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-tools-2.jpg?fit=468%2C68&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28332" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-tools-2.jpg?resize=468%2C68&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="68" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-tools-2.jpg?w=633&ssl=1 633w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-tools-2.jpg?resize=300%2C44&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/EDA-tools-2.jpg?resize=150%2C22&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <h3><strong>Specialized Materials and Chemicals</strong></h3> <p>So far our chip is still in software. But to turn it into something tangible we’re going to have to physically produce it in a chip factory called a “fab.” The factories that make chips need to buy specialized materials and chemicals:</p> <ul> <li>Silicon wafers – and to make those they need crystal growing furnaces</li> <li><a href="https://www.linde-gas.com/en/images/Gasworld%20-%20Creating%20a%20Semiconductor%20FEB18_tcm17-477345.pdf">Over 100 Gases</a> are used – bulk gases (oxygen, nitrogen, carbon dioxide, hydrogen, argon, helium), and other exotic/toxic gases (fluorine, nitrogen trifluoride, arsine, phosphine, boron trifluoride, diborane, silane, and the list goes on…)</li> <li>Fluids (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photoresist">photoresists</a>, top coats, <a href="https://www.surfaceconditioning.saint-gobain.com/news/choosing-best-cmp-slurry">CMP slurries</a>)</li> <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photomask" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Photomasks</a></li> <li>Wafer handling equipment, dicing</li> <li><a href="https://www.microwavejournal.com/articles/21140-rf-technology-in-semiconductor-wafer-processing">RF Generators</a></li> </ul> <h3><strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/materials-small-1.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28426" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/materials-small-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/materials-small-1.jpg?fit=545%2C167&ssl=1" data-orig-size="545,167" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="materials small" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/materials-small-1.jpg?fit=300%2C92&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/materials-small-1.jpg?fit=468%2C143&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28426" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/materials-small-1.jpg?resize=468%2C143&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="143" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/materials-small-1.jpg?w=545&ssl=1 545w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/materials-small-1.jpg?resize=300%2C92&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/materials-small-1.jpg?resize=150%2C46&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a><a href="https://steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/materials-small.jpg"><br /> </a>Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) Make the Chips</strong></h3> <ul> <li>These machines physically manufacture the chips</li> <li>Five companies dominate the industry – <a href="https://www.appliedmaterials.com/">Applied Materials</a>, <a href="https://www.kla.com/">KLA</a>, <a href="https://www.lamresearch.com/">LAM</a>, <a href="https://www.tel.com/">Tokyo Electron</a> and <a href="https://www.asml.com/en">ASML</a></li> <li>These are some of the most complicated (and expensive) machines on Earth. They take a slice of an ingot of silicon and manipulate its atoms on and below its surface</li> <li>We’ll explain how these machines are used a bit later on</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wafer-Fab-Equipment-2.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28335" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/wafer-fab-equipment-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wafer-Fab-Equipment-2.jpg?fit=502%2C214&ssl=1" data-orig-size="502,214" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Wafer Fab Equipment 2" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wafer-Fab-Equipment-2.jpg?fit=300%2C128&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wafer-Fab-Equipment-2.jpg?fit=468%2C200&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28335" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wafer-Fab-Equipment-2.jpg?resize=468%2C200&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="200" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wafer-Fab-Equipment-2.jpg?w=502&ssl=1 502w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wafer-Fab-Equipment-2.jpg?resize=300%2C128&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Wafer-Fab-Equipment-2.jpg?resize=150%2C64&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <h3><strong> “Fabless” Chip Companies </strong></h3> <ul> <li>Systems companies (Apple, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Amazon, Facebook, etc.) that previously used off-the-shelf chips now design their own chips.</li> <li>They create chip designs (using IP Cores and their own designs) and send the designs to “foundries” that have “fabs” that manufacture them</li> <li>They may use the chips exclusively in their own devices e.g. Apple, Google, Amazon ….</li> <li>Or they may sell the chips to everyone e.g. AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Broadcom…</li> <li>They do not own Wafer Fab Equipment or use specialized materials or chemicals</li> <li>They do use Chip IP and Electronic Design Software to design the chips</li> </ul> <p><strong> <a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/fabless-2.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28342" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/fabless-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/fabless-2.jpg?fit=475%2C344&ssl=1" data-orig-size="475,344" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="fabless 2" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/fabless-2.jpg?fit=300%2C217&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/fabless-2.jpg?fit=468%2C339&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28342" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/fabless-2.jpg?resize=468%2C339&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="339" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/fabless-2.jpg?w=475&ssl=1 475w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/fabless-2.jpg?resize=300%2C217&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/fabless-2.jpg?resize=150%2C109&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a><a href="https://steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/fabless.jpg"><br /> </a></strong></p> <h3><strong>Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs) </strong></h3> <ul> <li>Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs) design, manufacture (in their own fabs), and sell <em>their own </em>chips <ul> <li>They do not make chips for other companies (this is changing rapidly – see <a href="https://stratechery.com/2022/the-intel-split/">here</a>.)</li> <li>There are three categories of IDMs– Memory (e.g. <a href="https://www.micron.com/">Micron</a>, <a href="https://product.skhynix.com/home.go">SK Hynix</a>), Logic (e.g. <a href="http://www.intel.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Intel</a>), Analog (<a href="https://www.ti.com/">TI</a>, <a href="https://www.analog.com/en/index.html">Analog Devices</a>)</li> </ul> </li> <li>They have their own “fabs” but may also use foundries <ul> <li>They use Chip IP and Electronic Design Software to design their chips</li> <li>They buy Wafer Fab Equipment and use specialized materials and chemicals</li> </ul> </li> <li>The average cost of taping out a new leading-edge chip (3nm) is now $500 million</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/IDMs-2.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28344" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/idms-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/IDMs-2.jpg?fit=553%2C327&ssl=1" data-orig-size="553,327" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="IDMs 2" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/IDMs-2.jpg?fit=300%2C177&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/IDMs-2.jpg?fit=468%2C277&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28344" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/IDMs-2.jpg?resize=468%2C277&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="277" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/IDMs-2.jpg?w=553&ssl=1 553w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/IDMs-2.jpg?resize=300%2C177&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/IDMs-2.jpg?resize=150%2C89&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <h3><strong> Chip Foundries</strong></h3> <ul> <li>Foundries make chips for others in their “fabs”</li> <li>They buy and integrate equipment from a variety of manufacturers <ul> <li>Wafer Fab Equipment and specialized materials and chemicals</li> </ul> </li> <li>They design unique processes using this equipment to <em>make</em> the chips</li> <li>But they <em>don’t design chips</em></li> <li><a href="https://www.tsmc.com/english">TSMC</a> in Taiwan is the leader in logic, <a href="https://www.samsung.com/semiconductor/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Samsung</a> is second</li> <li>Other fabs specialize in making chips for analog, power, rf, displays, secure military, etc.</li> <li>It costs $20 billon to build a new generation chip (3nm) fabrication plant</li> </ul> <h3><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/foundries-2-1.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28348" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/foundries-2-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/foundries-2-1.jpg?fit=500%2C463&ssl=1" data-orig-size="500,463" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="foundries 2" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/foundries-2-1.jpg?fit=300%2C278&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/foundries-2-1.jpg?fit=468%2C433&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28348" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/foundries-2-1.jpg?resize=468%2C433&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="433" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/foundries-2-1.jpg?w=500&ssl=1 500w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/foundries-2-1.jpg?resize=300%2C278&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/foundries-2-1.jpg?resize=150%2C139&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></h3> <h3><strong>Fabs</strong></h3> <ul> <li>Fabs are short for fabrication plants – the factory that makes chips</li> <li>Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs) <em>and</em> Foundries both have fabs. The only difference is whether they make chips for others to use or sell or make them for themselves to sell.</li> <li>Think of a Fab as analogous to a book printing plant (see figure below)</li> </ul> <ol> <li>Just as an author writes a book using a word processor, an engineer designs a chip using electronic design automation tools</li> <li>An author contracts with a publisher who specializes in their genre and then sends the text to a printing plant. An engineer selects a fab appropriate for their type of chip (memory, logic, RF, analog)</li> <li>The printing plant buys paper and ink. A fab buys raw materials; silicon, chemicals, gases</li> <li>The printing plant buys printing machinery, presses, binders, trimmers. The fab buys wafer fab equipment, etchers, deposition, lithography, testers, packaging</li> <li>The printing process for a book uses offset lithography, filming, stripping, blueprints, plate making, binding and trimming. Chips are manufactured in a complicated process manipulating atoms using etchers, deposition, lithography. Think of it as an atomic level offset printing. The wafers are then cut up and the chips are packaged</li> <li>The plant turns out millions of copies of the same book. The plant turns out millions of copies of the same chip</li> </ol> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/printing.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28300" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/printing/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/printing.jpg?fit=895%2C448&ssl=1" data-orig-size="895,448" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="printing" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/printing.jpg?fit=300%2C150&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/printing.jpg?fit=468%2C234&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28300" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/printing.jpg?resize=468%2C234&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="234" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/printing.jpg?w=895&ssl=1 895w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/printing.jpg?resize=300%2C150&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/printing.jpg?resize=150%2C75&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/printing.jpg?resize=768%2C384&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>While this sounds simple, it’s not. Chips are probably the most complicated products ever manufactured. The diagram below is a simplified version of the <em>1000+</em> steps it takes to make a chip.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-fab-steps-2.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28351" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/chip-fab-steps-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-fab-steps-2.jpg?fit=914%2C533&ssl=1" data-orig-size="914,533" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="Chip fab steps 2" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-fab-steps-2.jpg?fit=300%2C175&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-fab-steps-2.jpg?fit=468%2C273&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28351" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-fab-steps-2.jpg?resize=468%2C273&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="273" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-fab-steps-2.jpg?w=914&ssl=1 914w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-fab-steps-2.jpg?resize=300%2C175&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-fab-steps-2.jpg?resize=150%2C87&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chip-fab-steps-2.jpg?resize=768%2C448&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <h3>Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT)</h3> <ul> <li>Companies that package and test chips made by foundries and IDMs</li> <li>OSAT companies take the wafer made by foundries, dice (cut) them up into individual chips, test them and then package them and ship them to the customer</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/OSAT-1.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28418" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/osat-2/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/OSAT-1.jpg?fit=960%2C540&ssl=1" data-orig-size="960,540" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="OSAT" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/OSAT-1.jpg?fit=300%2C169&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/OSAT-1.jpg?fit=468%2C263&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28418" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/OSAT-1.jpg?resize=468%2C263&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="263" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/OSAT-1.jpg?w=960&ssl=1 960w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/OSAT-1.jpg?resize=300%2C169&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/OSAT-1.jpg?resize=150%2C84&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/OSAT-1.jpg?resize=768%2C432&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p> </p> <h3><strong>Fab Issues</strong></h3> <ul> <li>As chips have become denser (with trillions of transistors on a single wafer) the cost of building fabs have skyrocketed – now >$10 billion for one chip factory</li> <li>One reason is that the cost of the equipment needed to make the chips has skyrocketed <ul> <li>Just one advanced lithography machine from <a href="https://www.asml.com/en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASML</a>, a Dutch company, costs $150 million</li> <li>There are ~500+ machines in a fab (not all as expensive as ASML)</li> <li>The fab building is incredibly complex. The clean room where the chips are made is just the tip of the iceberg of a complex set of plumbing feeding gases, power, liquids all at the right time and temperature into the wafer fab equipment</li> </ul> </li> <li>The multi-billion-dollar cost of staying at the leading edge has meant most companies have dropped out. In 2001 there were 17 companies making the most advanced chips. Today there are only two – <a href="https://www.samsung.com/semiconductor/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Samsung</a> in Korea and <a href="https://www.tsmc.com/english">TSMC</a> in Taiwan. <ul> <li>Given that China believes Taiwan is a province of China this could be problematic for the West.</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <h3><strong><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/companies-at-leading-edge.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28297" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/companies-at-leading-edge/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/companies-at-leading-edge.jpg?fit=978%2C464&ssl=1" data-orig-size="978,464" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="companies at leading edge" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/companies-at-leading-edge.jpg?fit=300%2C142&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/companies-at-leading-edge.jpg?fit=468%2C222&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28297" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/companies-at-leading-edge.jpg?resize=468%2C222&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="222" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/companies-at-leading-edge.jpg?w=978&ssl=1 978w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/companies-at-leading-edge.jpg?resize=300%2C142&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/companies-at-leading-edge.jpg?resize=150%2C71&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/companies-at-leading-edge.jpg?resize=768%2C364&ssl=1 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a>What’s Next – Technology</strong></h3> <p>It’s getting much harder to build chips that are denser, faster, and use less power, so what’s next?</p> <ul> <li>Instead of making a single processor do all the work, logic chip designers have put multiple specialized processors inside of a chip</li> <li>Memory chips are now made denser by stacking them 100+ layers high</li> <li>As chips are getting more complex to design, which means larger design teams, and longer time to market, Electronic Design Automation companies are embedding artificial intelligence to automate parts of the design process</li> <li>Wafer equipment manufacturers are designing new equipment to help fabs make chips with lower power, better <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/10iOkW6LfURNLND8z61eXbDx_Y-8jkBRr/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">performance, optimum area-to-cost, and faster time to market</a></li> </ul> <h3><strong>What’s Next – Business</strong></h3> <p>The business model of Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs) like <a href="http://www.intel.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Intel</a> is rapidly changing. In the past there was a huge competitive advantage in being vertically integrated i.e. having your own design tools and fabs. Today, it’s a disadvantage.</p> <ul> <li>Foundries have economies of scale and standardization. Rather than having to invent it all themselves, they can utilize the entire stack of innovation in the ecosystem. And just focus on manufacturing</li> <li><a href="https://www.amd.com/en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMD</a> has proven that it’s possible to shift from an IDM to a fabless foundry model. <a href="http://www.intel.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Intel</a> is trying. They are going to use <a href="https://www.tsmc.com/english">TSMC</a> as a foundry for their own chips as well as set up their own foundry</li> </ul> <h3><strong>What’s Next – Geopolitics</strong></h3> <p>Controlling advanced chip manufacturing in the 21st century may well prove to be like controlling the oil supply in the 20th. The country that controls this manufacturing can throttle the military and economic power of others.</p> <ul> <li>Ensuring a steady supply of chips has become a national priority. (China’s largest import by $’s are semiconductors – larger than oil)</li> <li>Today, both the U.S. and <a href="https://www.semiconductors.org/chinas-share-of-global-chip-sales-now-surpasses-taiwan-closing-in-on-europe-and-japan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China</a> are rapidly trying to decouple their semiconductor ecosystems from each other; China is pouring $100+ billion of government incentives in building Chinese fabs, while simultaneously trying to create indigenous supplies of wafer fab equipment and electronic design automation software</li> <li>Over the last few decades the U.S. moved most of its fabs to Asia. 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– The Small, the Agile, and the Many</a></h2> <div class="postinfo"> Posted on <span class="postdate">January 18, 2022</span> by steve blank </div> <div class="entry"> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/proceedings.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28183" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/proceedings/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/proceedings.jpg?fit=411%2C70&ssl=1" data-orig-size="411,70" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="proceedings" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/proceedings.jpg?fit=300%2C51&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/proceedings.jpg?fit=411%2C70&ssl=1" class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-28183" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/proceedings.jpg?resize=150%2C26&ssl=1" alt="" width="150" height="26" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/proceedings.jpg?resize=150%2C26&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/proceedings.jpg?resize=300%2C51&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/proceedings.jpg?w=411&ssl=1 411w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" /></a>This post previously appeared in the <a href="https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/january/small-agile-and-many" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Proceedings of the Naval Institute</a>.</p> <hr /> <p>One of the most audacious and bold manifestos for the future of Naval innovation has just been posted by the Rear Admiral who heads up the <a href="https://www.onr.navy.mil/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Office of Naval Research</a>. It may be the hedge we need to deter China in the South China Sea.</p> <hr /> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/shutterstock_1713770716.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28150" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/sealionhuntinginaschool-swarmofmackerel/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/shutterstock_1713770716.jpg?fit=7360%2C4912&ssl=1" data-orig-size="7360,4912" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"Shutterstock","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"Copyright (c) 2020 Mike Eyett\/Shutterstock. No use without permission.","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"Sea,Lion,Hunting,In,A,School,\/,Swarm,Of,Mackerel","orientation":"1"}" data-image-title="Sea,Lion,Hunting,In,A,School,/,Swarm,Of,Mackerel" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/shutterstock_1713770716.jpg?fit=300%2C200&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/shutterstock_1713770716.jpg?fit=468%2C312&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-28150" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/shutterstock_1713770716.jpg?resize=468%2C312&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="312" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/shutterstock_1713770716.jpg?resize=1024%2C683&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/shutterstock_1713770716.jpg?resize=300%2C200&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/shutterstock_1713770716.jpg?resize=150%2C100&ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/shutterstock_1713770716.jpg?resize=768%2C513&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/shutterstock_1713770716.jpg?resize=1536%2C1025&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/shutterstock_1713770716.jpg?resize=2048%2C1367&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/shutterstock_1713770716.jpg?w=936&ssl=1 936w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/shutterstock_1713770716.jpg?w=1404&ssl=1 1404w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p><strong>While You Were Out<br /> </strong>In the two decades since 9/11, while the U.S. was fighting Al-Qaeda and ISIS, China <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">built new weapons and developed new operational concepts</a> to negate U.S. military strengths. They’ve built ICBMs with conventional warheads to hit our aircraft carriers. They converted reefs in international waters into airbases, creating unsinkable aircraft carriers that extend the range of their aircraft and are armed with surface to air missiles make it dangerous to approach China’s mainland and Taiwan. <a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/China-Spratly-outposts.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28162" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/china-spratly-outposts/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/China-Spratly-outposts.jpg?fit=272%2C230&ssl=1" data-orig-size="272,230" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="China Spratly outposts" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/China-Spratly-outposts.jpg?fit=272%2C230&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/China-Spratly-outposts.jpg?fit=272%2C230&ssl=1" class="alignright size-full wp-image-28162" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/China-Spratly-outposts.jpg?resize=272%2C230&ssl=1" alt="" width="272" height="230" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/China-Spratly-outposts.jpg?w=272&ssl=1 272w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/China-Spratly-outposts.jpg?resize=150%2C127&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 272px) 100vw, 272px" /></a></p> <p>To evade our own fleet air defense systems, they’ve armed their missiles with maneuvering warheads, and to reduce our reaction time they have missiles that travel at <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45811" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hypersonic</a> speed.</p> <p>The sum of these Chinese offset strategies means that in the South China Sea the U.S. can no longer deter a war because we can longer guarantee we can win one.</p> <p>This does not bode well for our treaty allies, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea. Control of the South China Sea would allow China to control fishing operations and oil and gas exploration; to politically coerce other countries bordering in the region; to enforce an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea; or to enforce a blockade around Taiwan or invade it.</p> <p><strong>What To Do About It?<br /> </strong>Today the Navy has aircraft carriers, submarines, surface combatants, aircraft, and sensors under the sea and in space. Our plan to counter to China can be summed up as, more of the same but better and more tightly integrated.</p> <p>This might be the right strategy. However, what if we’re wrong? What if our assumptions about the survivability of these naval platforms and the ability of our marines to operate, were based on incorrect assumption about our investments in material, operational concepts and mental models?</p> <p>If so, it might be prudent for the Navy to have a <em>hedge strategy</em>. Think of a hedge as a “just in case” strategy. It turns out the Navy had one in WWII. And it won the war in the Pacific.</p> <p><strong>War Plan Orange<br /> </strong>In the 1930s U.S. war planners thought about a future war with Japan. The result was “<a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/War_Plan_Orange/KUGqAAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=war+plan+orange&pg=PT8&printsec=frontcover" target="_blank" rel="noopener">War Plan Orange</a>” centered on the idea that ultimately, American battleships would engage the Japanese fleet in a gunnery battle, which the U.S. would win.</p> <p>Unfortunately for us Japan didn’t adhere to our war plan. They were bolder and more imaginative than we were. Instead of battleships, they used aircraft carriers to attack us. The U.S. woke up on Dec. 7, 1941, with most of our battleships sitting on the bottom of Pearl Harbor. The core precept of War Plan Orange went to the bottom with it.</p> <p>But the portfolio of options available to Admiral Nimitz and President Roosevelt were not limited to battleships. <em>They had a hedge strategy</em> <em>in place</em> in case the battleships were not the solution. The hedges? Aircraft carriers and submarines.</p> <p>While the U.S. Navy’s primary investment pre-WW2 was in battleships, <em>the Navy had also made a substantial alternative investment – in aircraft carriers and submarines</em>. The Navy launched the first aircraft carrier in 1920. For the next two decades they ran fleet exercises with them. At the beginning of the war the U.S. Navy had seven aircraft carriers (CVs) and one aircraft escort vessel (AVG). By the end of the war the U.S. had built <strong><em>111</em></strong><em> carriers</em>. (24 fleet carriers, 9 light carriers and 78 escort carriers.) 12 were sunk.</p> <p>As it turned out, it was carriers, subs, and the Marines who won the Pacific conflict.</p> <p><strong>Our Current Plan<br /> </strong>Fast forward to today. For the last 80 years the carriers in a <a href="https://www.acibc.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Strike-Group-Infographic.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Carrier Strike Group</a> and submarines remain the preeminent formation for U.S. naval warfare.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/strike-group.png?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="21914" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/2016/07/28/the-navy-carriers-and-disruption/strike-group/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/strike-group.png?fit=817%2C530&ssl=1" data-orig-size="817,530" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="strike group" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/strike-group.png?fit=300%2C195&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/strike-group.png?fit=468%2C304&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-21914" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/strike-group.png?resize=468%2C304&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="304" /></a></p> <p>China has been watching us operate and fight in this formation for decades. But what if <a href="https://i.imgur.com/JMz8qyH.jpg">carrier strike groups</a> can no longer win a fight? What if the U.S. is underestimating China’s capabilities, intents, imagination, and operating concepts? What if they can disable or destroy our strike groups (via cyber, conventionally armed ICBMs, cruise missiles, hypersonics, drones, submarines, etc.)? If that’s a possibility, then what is the Navy’s 21st-century hedge? What is its Plan B?</p> <p><strong>Says Who?<br /> </strong>Here’s where this conversation gets interesting. While I have an opinion, think tanks have an opinion, and civilians in the Pentagon have an opinion, <a href="https://www.navy.mil/Leadership/Biographies/BioDisplay/Article/2236263/rear-admiral-lorin-selby/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RAdm Lorin Selby</a>, the Chief of the Office of Naval Research (ONR), has more than just “an opinion.” <a href="https://www.onr.navy.mil/en/Science-Technology/Departments">ONR</a> is the Navy’s science and technology systems command. Its job is to see over the horizon and think about what’s possible. Selby was previously deputy commander of the Naval Sea Systems Command (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_Sea_Systems_Command" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NAVSEA</a>) and commander of the Naval Surface Warfare Centers (<a href="https://www.navsea.navy.mil/Home/Warfare-Centers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NSWC</a>). As the chief engineer of the Navy, he was the master of engineering the large and the complex.</p> <p>What follows is <a href="https://4916908a-86fc-48cb-bacf-64d55ffc94c8.filesusr.com/ugd/3d35e8_36ddf5158c344505a055fb1d85182a36.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">my paraphrasing RADM Selby’s thinking</a> about a hedge strategy the Navy needs and how they should get there.</p> <p><strong>Diversification<br /> </strong>A hedge strategy is built on the premise that you invest in different things, not more or better versions of the same.</p> <p>If you look at the Navy force structure today and its plan for the next decade, at first glance you might say they have a diversified portfolio and a plan for more. The Navy has aircraft carriers, submarines, surface combatants, and many types of aircraft. And they <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL32665" target="_blank" rel="noopener">plan for a distributed fleet architecture, including 321 to 372 manned ships and 77 to 140 large, unmanned vehicles</a>.</p> <p>But there is an equally accurate statement that this is not a diversified portfolio because all these assets share many of the same characteristics:</p> <ul> <li>They are all large compared to their predecessors</li> <li>They are all expensive – to the point where the Navy can’t afford the number of platforms our force structure assessments suggest they need</li> <li>They are all multi-mission and therefore complex</li> <li>The system-to-system interactions to create these complex integrations drive up cost and manufacturing lead times</li> <li>Long manufacturing lead times mean they have no surge capacity</li> <li>They are acquired on a requirements model that lags operational identification of need by years…sometimes decades when you fold in the construction span times for some of these complex capabilities like carriers or submarines</li> <li>They are difficult to modernize – The ability to update the systems aboard these platforms, even the software systems, still takes years to accomplish</li> </ul> <p>If the primary asset of the U.S. fleet now and in the future is the large and the complex, then surely there must be a hedge, a Plan B somewhere? (Like the pre-WW2 aircraft carriers.) In fact, there isn’t. The Navy has demos of alternatives, but there is no force structure built on a different set of principles that would complicate China’s plans and create doubt in our adversaries of whether they could prevail in a conflict.</p> <p><strong>The Hedge Strategy – Create “the small, the agile, and the many”<br /> </strong>In a world where the large and the complex are either too expensive to generate en masse or potentially too vulnerable to put at risk, “the small, the agile, and the many” has the potential to define the future of Navy formations.</p> <p><em>We need formations composed of dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of unmanned vehicles above, below, and on the ocean surface. <u>We need to build collaborating, autonomous formations</u>…NOT a collection of platforms</em>.</p> <p>This novel formation is going to be highly dependent on artificial intelligence and new software that enables cross-platform collaboration and human machine teaming.</p> <p>To do this we need a different world view. One that is no longer tied to large 20th-century industrial systems, but to a 21st-century <em>software-centric</em> <em>agile </em>world.</p> <p><em>The Selby Manifesto</em>:</p> <ul> <li>Digitally adept naval forces will outcompete forces organized around principle of industrial optimization. “Data is the new oil and software is the new steel”</li> <li>The systems engineering process we have built over the last 150 years is not optimal for software-based systems. <ul> <li>Instead, iterative design approaches dominate software design</li> </ul> </li> <li>The Navy has world-class engineering and acquisition processes to deal with hardware <ul> <li>but applying the same process and principles to digital systems is a mistake</li> </ul> </li> <li>The design principles that drive software companies are fundamentally different than those that drive industrial organizations.</li> <li>Applying industrial-era principles to digital era technologies is a recipe for failure</li> <li>The Navy has access to amazing capabilities that already exist. And part of our challenge will be to integrate those capabilities together in novel ways that allow new modes of operation and more effectiveness against operational priorities</li> <li>There’s an absolute need to foster a collaborative partnership with academia and businesses – big businesses, small businesses, and startups</li> <li>This has serious implication of how the Navy and Marine Corps needs to change. What do we need to change when it comes to engineering and operating concepts?</li> </ul> <p><strong>How To Get “The </strong><strong>Small, The Agile, and The Many” Tested and In The Water?<br /> </strong>Today, “the small, the agile and the many” have been run in war games, exercises, simulations, and small demonstrations, but not built at scale in a formation of dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of unmanned vehicles above, below and on the ocean’s surface. We need to prove whether these systems can fight alongside our existing assets (or independently if required).</p> <p>ONR plans to rapidly prove that this idea works, and that the Navy can build it. Or they will disprove the theory. Either way the Navy needs to know quickly whether they have a hedge. Time is not on our side in the South China Sea.</p> <p>ONR’s plan is to move boldly. They’re building this new “small, the agile, and the many”formation on digital principles and they’re training a new class of program managers – digital leaders – to guide the journey through the complex software and data.</p> <p>They are going to partner with industry using <em>rapid, </em>simple, and accountable acquisition processes, using it to get through the gauntlet of discussions to contract in short time periods so we can get to work. And these processes are going to excite new partners and allies.</p> <p>They’re going to use all the ideas already on the shelves, whether government shelves or commercial shelves, and focus on what can be integrated and then what must be invented.</p> <p>All the while they’ve been talking to commanders in fleets around the world. And taking a page from digital engineering practices, instead of generating a list of requirements, they’re building to the operational need by asking “what is the real problem?” They are actively listening, using Lean and design thinking to hear and understand the problems, to build a minimal viable product – a prototype solution – and get it into the water. Then asking, did that solve the problem…no? Why not? Okay, we are going to go fix it and come back in a few months, not years.</p> <p>The goal is to demonstrate this novel naval formation virtually, digitally, and then physically with feedback from in water experiments. Ultimately the goal is getting agile prototyping out to sea and doing it faster than ever before.</p> <p>In the end the goal is to effectively evaluate the idea of <strong>“</strong>the small, the agile, and the many.<strong>”</strong> How to iterate at scale and at speed. How to take things that meet operational needs and make them part of the force structure, deploying them in novel naval formations, learning their operational capabilities, not just their technical merits. If we’re successful, then we can help guarantee the rest of century.</p> <p><strong>What Can Go Wrong?<br /> </strong>During the Cold War the U.S. prided itself on developing offset strategies, technical or operational concepts that leapfrogged the Soviet Union. Today China has done that to us. They’ve surprised us with multiple offset strategies, and more are likely to come. The fact is that China is innovating faster than the Department of Defense, they’ve gotten inside our DoD <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Boyd_%28military_strategist%29#OODA_loop">OODA loop</a>.</p> <p>But China is not innovating faster than our nation as a whole. Innovation in our commercial ecosystem — in AI, machine learning, autonomy, commercial access to space, cyber, biotech, semiconductors (all technologies the DoD and Navy need) — continues to solve the toughest problems at speed and scale, attracting the best and the brightest with private capital that dwarfs the entire <a href="https://www.cto.mil" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DoD R&E</a> (research and engineering) budget.</p> <p>RADM Selby’s plan of testing the hedge of “the small, the agile, and the many” using tools and technologies of the 21st century is exactly the right direction for the Navy.</p> <p>However, in peacetime bold, radical ideas are not welcomed. They disrupt the status quo. They challenge existing reporting structures, and in a world of finite budgets, money has to be taken from existing programs and primes or programs even have to be killed to make the new happen. Even when positioned as a hedge, existing vendors, existing Navy and DoD organizations, existing political power centers, will all see “the small, the agile, and the many” as a threat. It challenges careers, dollars, and mindsets. Many will do their best to impede, kill or co-opt this idea.</p> <p><a href="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/IndoPacom-Forces.jpg?ssl=1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-attachment-id="28157" data-permalink="https://steveblank.com/indopacom-forces/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/IndoPacom-Forces.jpg?fit=468%2C349&ssl=1" data-orig-size="468,349" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="IndoPacom Forces" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/IndoPacom-Forces.jpg?fit=300%2C224&ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/IndoPacom-Forces.jpg?fit=468%2C349&ssl=1" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28157" src="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/IndoPacom-Forces.jpg?resize=468%2C349&ssl=1" alt="" width="468" height="349" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/IndoPacom-Forces.jpg?w=468&ssl=1 468w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/IndoPacom-Forces.jpg?resize=300%2C224&ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/steveblank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/IndoPacom-Forces.jpg?resize=150%2C112&ssl=1 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 468px) 100vw, 468px" /></a></p> <p>We are outmatched in the South China Sea. And the odds are getting longer each year. In a war with China we won’t have years to rebuild our Navy.</p> <p>A crisis is an opportunity to clear out the old to make way for the new. If senior leadership of the Navy, DoD, executive branch, and Congress truly believe we need to win this fight, that this is a crisis, then ONR and “the small, the agile, and the many” needs a direct report to the Secretary of the Navy and the budget and authority to make this happen.</p> <p>The Navy and the country need a hedge. 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