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href=http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/indexfuture/index.shtml target=_blank>股指期货呼之欲出</a></span> > <font color="#000099">正文</font></span>  </span><span class="medialogo" align="right"><a href="http://www.p5w.net" target="_blank"><img src="http://image2.sina.com.cn/cj/mtlogo/box/logo/panorama.gif" border=0 onload="javascript:DrawImage(this)"/></a></span> <span class="clearit"></span> </p> </td> </tr> </table>  </td>  <td valign="bottom" align="right"> <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td class="iAskLLogo"></td> <form name=iask1 target=_blank onSubmit="return iask(this);"> <td align="right"> <script language="javascript"> function iask(fn) { if(fn.k.value=="" || fn.k.value=="请输关键词") { fn.k.value="请输关键词"; return false; } fn.action="http://www.iask.com/n"; fn.submit(); return false; } </script> <input type=text name="k" value="请输关键词" onClick="javascript:if(this.value=='请输关键词')this.value='';" class="iAskIpt"><input type="hidden" name="t" value="keyword"><input type="hidden" name="sc" value="新浪"><input type="submit" value="爱问搜索" class="iAskBtn"> </td> </form> </tr> </table> </td>  </tr> </table>  <div class="split"></div>  <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="950" class="vsplit"> <tr> <td width="640" valign="top" class="lc_blue"> <div class="lcBlk"> <div id="artibodyTitle"> <h1>期指学院：如何应对股指期货的到期日效应</h1> <div class="from_info">http://www.sina.com.cn 2007年06月01日 09:36 <span class="linkRed02"><a href=http://www.p5w.net target="_blank">全景网络－证券时报</a></span></div> </div>  <div class="artibody" id="artibody"> <center></center><p>　　平安期货冯子沣</p> <p>　　股指期货的到期日效应指的是，在股指期货结算日，目标指数的成交量和波动率显著增加的现象。到期日效应产生的根本原因是指数期货采用现金交割的方式进行结算，而套利的平仓交易、套期保值的转仓交易与投机交易者操纵结算价格的欲望，在最后结算日的相互作用产生了到期日效应。</p> <p>　　由于我国证券交易法规定不能卖空股票，套利交易只有在股指期货价格高于现货价格以上才会出现，套利交易者卖出股指期货，买入现货。对于期货到期日仍持有现货的套利者，需要按照期货结算价格出清股票。如果套利交易者比较多，同一时间内的卖压就会集中出现，对指数产生下跌压力。对于套期保值者，在合约即将到期时需要将空头合约转到其他月份去，因此合约到期前当月期货合约价格将有一定的压力，而期货的价格发现作用将影响传导到现货指数。该合约的投机者则希望在最后结算日尽量使现货价格向自己比较有利的方向发展，以达到获利或者减少损失的目的，因此投机者在最后交易日有操纵价格的意愿。</p> <p>　　在以上所述的不同因素影响下，股指期货到期日的交易量、波动率和收益率与平均水平有明显差异。根据统计，股指期货到期日买入<span class=yqlink><form class=yqin action=http://www.iask.com/n method=post><input type=hidden name=k value=%B9%C9%C6%B1></form><a href=http://www.iask.com/n?k=%B9%C9%C6%B1 target=_blank onClick="activateYQinl(this);return false;" class=akey title=股票>股票</a></span>的投资收益率比其他交易日的平均水平要高；以股指期货到期日为开始的前半个月内买入股票比后半个月买入股票的投资收益率要高。从统计结果来看，股指期货到期日造成了现货价格的一个洼地效应。</p> <p>　　对于一些股票的投资者，股指期货到期日后的几个交易日可以看作买入股票的一个比较好的时机。同样，在两个股指期货到期日中间卖出股票也有轻微的溢价。股票投资者同时要留意该月份出现正向套利空间日期的数量，在出现套利空间的交易日持仓量是否有明显的增加，如果有条件的话还需要了解机构所持的空单数量是否比较大，这些因素都有可能对股指期货到期日的现货指数产生一定压力。</p> <p>　　为了避免结算价格被操纵，中金所将到期日股指期货交割结算价定为最后交易日标的指数最后2小时的算术平均价，并有权根据市场情况对股指期货的交割结算价进行调整。由于时间跨度较大，成分股票权重比较分散，大大降低了被操纵的机会。同时，中金所将股指期货的结算日定为每月第三个星期五，避开了月末效应、季末效应等其他可能引起现货波动的因素。中金所在制度上对股指期货的到期日效应的影响做了充分考虑，但究竟股指期货的到期日效应对现货的影响有多大，需要市场来证明。 </p> </p> <a href= target=_blank></a> </div>    <div style="margin:0 auto;text-align:right;padding:10px 25px;"> 【<a href=http://comment4.news.sina.com.cn/comment/comment4.html?channel=cj&newsid=31-1-3652384>发表评论</a><span name="cmnt_count" cmnt_id="cj:31-1-3652384:0" p_id="1031" p_key="31-1-3652384" p_url="http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/20070601/09363652384.shtml" p_expara="" show_limit="20,0" style="display:none"> _COUNT_条</span>】 </div>   <div align="center" style="clear:both;"> <script type="text/javascript">  </script> <form name=f method=get onSubmit="return ck()" action=http://iask.com/n target="_blank"> <table cellspacing="0" width="585"> <tr align="left"> <td width="15"></td> <td height="30" class="f14"><a href=http://iask.com 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