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class="speechify-ignore l"><div class="gn l"></div><div class="ab cb"><div class="ci bh fz ga gb gc"><div class="cq ab go"><div><div class="bm" aria-hidden="false"><div class="gp q gq ge gr go ao"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="16px" height="16px" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 64 64"><path fill="#FFC017" d="m39.637 40.831-5.771 15.871a1.99 1.99 0 0 1-3.732 0l-5.771-15.87a2.02 2.02 0 0 0-1.194-1.195L7.298 33.866a1.99 1.99 0 0 1 0-3.732l15.87-5.771a2.02 2.02 0 0 0 1.195-1.194l5.771-15.871a1.99 1.99 0 0 1 3.732 0l5.771 15.87a2.02 2.02 0 0 0 1.194 1.195l15.871 5.771a1.99 1.99 0 0 1 0 3.732l-15.87 5.771a2.02 2.02 0 0 0-1.195 1.194"></path></svg><p class="bf b bg z du">Member-only story</p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="gs gt gu gv gw"><div class="ab cb"><div class="ci bh fz ga gb gc"><div><h1 id="1fe1" class="pw-post-title gx gy gz bf ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh hi hj hk hl hm hn ho hp hq hr bk" data-testid="storyTitle">The dumbest decision I ever made (and the Nobel Prize that explains it)</h1></div><div><h2 id="d8e0" class="pw-subtitle-paragraph hs gy gz bf b ht hu hv hw hx hy hz ia ib ic id ie if ig ih cq du">Decision science, Family Guy, and why the “safe” choice is often the riskiest.</h2><div><div class="speechify-ignore ab cp"><div class="speechify-ignore bh l"><div class="ii ij ik il im ab"><div><div class="ab in"><div><div class="bm" aria-hidden="false"><a rel="noopener follow" href="/?source=post_page---byline--8fcb90583ea0---------------------------------------"><div class="l io ip by iq ir"><div class="l fj"><img alt="Mark Shrime, MD, PhD" class="l fd by dd de cx" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fill:88:88/1*6_Q8A3rlReeKryC9OeCy2Q.png" width="44" height="44" loading="lazy" data-testid="authorPhoto"/><div class="is by l dd de fs n it ft"></div></div></div></a></div></div></div></div><div class="bn bh l"><div class="ab"><div style="flex:1"><span class="bf b bg z bk"><div class="iu ab q"><div class="ab q iv"><div 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with me, because this story — about a single moment in Singapore 27 years ago — might also explain why you’re stuck in a job you hate, why you’re still living in a city that doesn’t set your soul on fire, or why you haven’t started that business or written that book or launched that podcast.</p><p id="9b55" class="pw-post-body-paragraph mv mw gz mx b ht my mz na hw nb nc nd ne nf ng nh ni nj nk nl nm nn no np nq gs bk">This was June, 1998. <em class="oa">Closing Time </em>stood at the top of the charts, and I stood at the entrance to Singapore’s immigration building, my hand on the door.</p><figure class="oe of og oh oi oj ob oc paragraph-image"><div role="button" tabindex="0" class="ok ol fj om bh on"><div class="ob oc od"><picture><source srcSet="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:640/format:webp/1*CMV8oSUcBy4lnzqiCy45GA.jpeg 640w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:720/format:webp/1*CMV8oSUcBy4lnzqiCy45GA.jpeg 720w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:750/format:webp/1*CMV8oSUcBy4lnzqiCy45GA.jpeg 750w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:786/format:webp/1*CMV8oSUcBy4lnzqiCy45GA.jpeg 786w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:828/format:webp/1*CMV8oSUcBy4lnzqiCy45GA.jpeg 828w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1100/format:webp/1*CMV8oSUcBy4lnzqiCy45GA.jpeg 1100w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/format:webp/1*CMV8oSUcBy4lnzqiCy45GA.jpeg 1400w" sizes="(min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" type="image/webp"/><source data-testid="og" srcSet="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:640/1*CMV8oSUcBy4lnzqiCy45GA.jpeg 640w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:720/1*CMV8oSUcBy4lnzqiCy45GA.jpeg 720w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:750/1*CMV8oSUcBy4lnzqiCy45GA.jpeg 750w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:786/1*CMV8oSUcBy4lnzqiCy45GA.jpeg 786w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:828/1*CMV8oSUcBy4lnzqiCy45GA.jpeg 828w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1100/1*CMV8oSUcBy4lnzqiCy45GA.jpeg 1100w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/1*CMV8oSUcBy4lnzqiCy45GA.jpeg 1400w" sizes="(min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px"/><img alt="" class="bh mc oo c" width="700" height="934" loading="lazy" role="presentation"/></picture></div></div><figcaption class="op ff oq ob oc or os bf b bg z du">Source: Unsplash</figcaption></figure><p id="da3b" class="pw-post-body-paragraph mv mw gz mx b ht my mz na hw nb nc nd ne nf ng nh ni nj nk nl nm nn no np nq gs bk">I was coming to the end of one of the most amazing years of my life, doing a job I absolutely loved, in a country that had quickly become home. The only thing that stood between me and keeping all that going was one door.</p><p id="c1df" class="pw-post-body-paragraph mv mw gz mx b ht my mz na hw nb nc nd ne nf ng nh ni nj nk nl nm nn no np nq gs bk">See, even though I’m a surgeon now, I never wanted to be one. Like actively, adamantly, deeply did <em class="oa">not</em> want to be a doctor. I wanted to be a rock star (because what little boy doesn’t want to be a rock star?) Or I wanted to be a linguist (because what little boy doesn’t want to be a linguist?)</p></div></div></div></div></section></div></div></article></div><div class="l"></div><footer class="ot ou ov ow ox ab q oy oz c"><div class="l ae"><div class="ab cb"><div class="ci bh fz ga gb gc"><div class="ab cp pa"><div class="ab q ku"><div class="pb l"><span class="l pc pd pe e d"><div class="ab q ku kv"><div class="pw-multi-vote-icon fj kw kx ky kz"><span><a class="af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at" data-testid="footerClapButton" href="https://medium.com/m/signin?actionUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fmedium.com%2F_%2Fvote%2Fp%2F8fcb90583ea0&operation=register&redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fshrime.medium.com%2Fthe-dumbest-decision-i-ever-made-and-the-nobel-prize-that-explains-it-8fcb90583ea0&user=Mark+Shrime%2C+MD%2C+PhD&userId=b90da8c68cc3&source=---footer_actions--8fcb90583ea0---------------------clap_footer------------------" rel="noopener follow"><div><div class="bm" aria-hidden="false"><div class="la 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