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Mysteel月报：12月热轧板卷价格或将震荡运行 成交放缓-我的钢铁网
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target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>板卷均价为3941元/吨，月累计上涨173元/吨。库存方面，截至12月1日全国热轧板卷社会库存为196.68万吨，较上周减少3.82万吨。</p> <p>一、国内市场热轧板卷供应情况</p> <p align="center">图1：热轧板卷周产量（分年度）</p> <p align="center"><img alt="" height="309" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/02/fe910839119d4604917d9f29f1371b07.png" width="428" /></p> <p align="center">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="justify">Mysteel调研，2022年12月1日监测的37家热轧板卷生产企业总计64条产线实际开工条数51条，整体开工率79.69%，周环比增1.56%；本周钢厂产能利用率为76.03%，周环比增2.24%；因高炉或轧线检修而影响的日均产量为11.69万吨，周环比降1.71万吨；因不饱和生产而影响的日均产量为3.14万吨，周环比降0.46万吨；本周钢厂实际产量为297.59吨，周环比增8.75万吨；钢厂厂内库存为80.07万吨，周环比减少3.78万吨。具体热轧商品卷总量约为200.49万吨，周环比增加6.05万吨；内部供料总量约为97.10万吨，周环比增加2.70万吨。</p> <p align="justify">二、海外需求减弱，海内外价格窄幅波动</p> <p align="justify">（一）出口价差</p> <p align="center">图2：热轧板卷进出口走势图</p> <p align="center"><img alt="" height="309" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/02/60491457c1094713b81e0091b3565fed.png" width="427" /></p> <p align="center">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="justify">截止至12月1日，国内天津港出口价格较国内高366.9元/吨，约51.13美元/吨，较上月增加4.21美元/吨，其中出口价格月环比上涨220.3元/吨左右，国内沧州热卷价格月环比涨190元/吨左右。由此可见，近期整体市场逐步反弹，海外市场也基本持稳，12月船期订单受圣诞节等因素影响，近期海外询单情况有所减弱。</p> <p align="justify">（二）进出口量</p> <p align="center">图3：热轧板卷进出口量</p> <p align="center"><img alt="" height="309" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/02/6790cea916fc4d2d87b822c2878e7a8c.png" width="427" /></p> <p align="center">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="justify">10月热轧板卷出口数量为76.64万吨，环比增25%；10月热轧板卷进口为10.97万吨，同比减少48%。详见图3。就目前来看，海内外价差基本持稳，短期内大幅拉开可能性不大，价格竞争力正在削弱，</p> <p align="justify">三、11月热轧板卷继续降库，供给缩减</p> <p align="justify">（一）库存方面</p> <p align="center">图4：热轧板卷社会库存（分年度）</p> <p align="center"><img alt="" height="308" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/02/25748ee9764946a8acc1bf535d87aa1c.png" width="427" /></p> <p align="center">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="justify">据Mysteel调研数据显示，截至12月1日全国热轧板卷社会库存为196.68万吨，较上周减少3.82万吨，较去年同期减少40.41万吨。</p> <p>（二）需求方面</p> <p align="justify">11月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为48.0%，比上月下降1.2个百分点，低于临界点，制造业生产经营景气水平较上月有所下降。从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.1%、48.1%和45.6%，比上月下降1.0、0.8和2.6个百分点，均低于临界点。从分类指数看，构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数均低于临界点。生产指数为47.8%，比上月下降1.8个百分点，表明制造业生产活动继续放缓。新订单指数为46.4%，比上月下降1.7个百分点，表明制造业市场需求持续回落。原材料库存指数为46.7%，比上月下降1.0个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量有所减少.从业人员指数为47.4%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度下降。供应商配送时间指数为46.7%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间有所放慢。</p> <p align="justify">四、11月热卷价格触底反弹，需求小幅回升</p> <p align="justify">（一）热轧板卷市场价格</p> <p align="center">图5：国内4.75mm热轧板卷均价走势图</p> <p align="center"><img alt="" height="309" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/02/ca88d3b983524eaba5ba4fc213fd0ba1.png" width="428" /></p> <p align="center">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="justify">截至12月1日，现全国主要城市4.75mm热轧板卷均价为3941元/吨，较上一交易日上涨10元/吨。其中主要城市价格为上海3910元/吨，沈阳3770元/吨，天津3810元/吨，乐从3960元/吨，武汉3950元/吨，成都4020元/吨，西安3890元/吨。</p> <p align="center">图6：国内25个主要地区热轧板卷市场价格及月度涨跌幅</p> <p align="center"><img alt="" height="308" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/02/f7aaecebd5c748d78402516c717d11fd.png" width="561" /></p> <p align="center">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="justify">（二）成本利润</p> <p align="center">图7：热轧板卷成本利润</p> <p align="center"><img alt="" height="309" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/12/02/c8203ece8d2d4650a4b92d0009f4c201.png" width="428" /></p> <p align="center">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="justify">截止至12月1日，据Mysteel测算热轧生产成本为4166.15元/吨，较上月增加312.05元/吨，Myspic热卷价格指数为3930.87元/吨，月环比上涨195.73元/吨，热轧盈利为-235.28元/吨，较上周反向扩大21.11元/吨。目前钢厂亏损有所扩大，低于去年钢厂盈利水平约529.57元/吨。目前来看，钢厂对于板材亏损情况依然严峻，有部分检修情况发生。</p> <p>五、国内市场分析总结</p> <p align="justify">12月基本面来看，产量下滑，下滑主要以钢厂短期检修为主，月中产量有一个集中恢复的过程，因此短期仍有利润空间的情况下，产量会有一定上升的空间。就从当前的行为看，市场买盘均在想低价购买，对于市场利空的主要是疫情与消费预期变弱，利多的则是对于宏观预期转向的过程。因此市场短期仍继续观望态势，对于钢厂而言短期接单继续维持，但当前下端不愿意大量购买的情况下，继续持续好转的空间依然有限，直至季节性压力出现。从库存角度看，主流市场库存去库维持，刚需消费维持，从9月份同环比消费有所回升到目前为止则呈现了持平态势，未来压力会逐步体现。因此从这一节奏上看，热轧上下端的博弈仍将继续维持，直至钢厂大幅减量或下端购买后才会有所好转。综合情况看，现货库存处于一个主动去库态势，不愿补库，迫使压力从消费端向供应端传导。短期预期支撑较为明确，实际影响难以体现，信心支撑的过程中热轧价格会呈现震荡偏强走势。</p> <p>2022大宗商品年报出炉在即！欢迎抢鲜品读！</p> <p>报告聚焦钢材、煤焦、<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石</a>、<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢</a>新材料、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0303-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁合金</a>、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0306-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>废钢</a>、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----02-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>有色金属</a>、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>建筑材料</a>、<a href='https://m.myagric.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>农产品</a>等9大品种，由上海钢联100多位资深分析师倾力打造，深度剖析100余条细分产业链长周期数据，囊括行业热点、宏观政策等全方位解读，涵盖价格价差、成本利润、产能产量、库存、资源流向、区域供需平衡、市场竞争格局等基本面分析……</p> <p>点击链接了解更多：<a href="https://sem.mysteel.com/report.html" rel="noopener" style="color: #3861ab" target="_blank">点击查看</a></p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：吴金昌 021-26094199 </br> 资讯监督：陈跃进 021-26093640 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a 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