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h1, h2, h3, .tt-title-text{ margin-top: 0px !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; } } #fkgUBk { display: none; } </style> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image" /> <meta name="twitter:description" content="The shock to the labour market appears deeper, broader and more long-lasting than that in 2020, say Bank of America economists" /> <meta name="twitter:title" content="China Youth Unemployment to Hit 23%, Bank of America Says" /> <meta name="twitter:site" content="@ATFinancial_" /> <meta name="twitter:image" content="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/china_jobs_fair.jpg" /><script type="application/ld+json">{ "@context": "http:\/\/schema.org", "@type": "newsarticle", "inLanguage": "en", "url": "https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com", "articleBody": " \r\n\r\nChina's unemployment rate will hit a record high in the coming months with youth unemployment surging to 23%, says Bank of America.\r\n\r\nThe jobless rate in big cities will likely exceed 7% and the rate among people aged 16 to 24 may jump to 23% in July and August, wrote economists <a href="https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/xiaoqingpi\/?originalSubdomain=hk">Pi Xiaoqing<\/a> and <a href="https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/helen-hong-qiao-a7a2901\/?original_referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Egoogle%2Eco%2Euk%2F&originalSubdomain=hk">Helen Qiao<\/a> in a June 6 note. The shock to the labour market from Covid lockdowns has ''crippled businesses,'' they added.\r\n\r\n"The shock on [the] labour market appears deeper, broader and more long-lasting than that in 2020," they wrote. That\u2019s because "more industrial hubs are likely impacted during the peak production season, and sectors which picked up the job market slack back then are losing steam,\u2019\u2019 they said.\r\n\r\nThey expect the nationwide unemployment rate to breach 6.5% in coming months, compared with 6.1% in April, before falling below 6% when Covid-zero restrictions eventually ease.\r\n\r\nThe unemployment rate in 31 major cities rose to a record high 6.7% in April as big cities including Shanghai were locked down, while youth unemployment rose to 18.2%. The jobless rate of migrant workers rose more sharply than those of locals, the economists said.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n<h3>READ MORE: <a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/china-pe-investor-warns-of-economic-paralysis-ft">China Economy in Worst Shape in 30 Years, Says PAG - FT<\/a><\/h3>\r\n \r\n<h3>Gauges to Deteriorate<\/h3>\r\n"We expect these gauges to continue to deteriorate in the near future,\u2019\u2019 said Pi and Qiao. "Labour market indicators usually lag the co-incident and leading economic activity indicators by months, and are unlikely to bottom out before economic growth bounces back.\u2019\u2019\r\n\r\nThe official gauges also likely undercount the stress on the ground, they added.\r\n\r\nNew recruitment, informal hiring and income growth are the areas of most stress and are likely to decelerate notably right away, the economists said. Fresh college graduates, flexibly employed individuals and migrant workers will be hit by "the shockwave first," they said.\r\n\r\nIn the first quarter this year, there was a 0.71 vacancy rate for each graduating job seeker, the lowest ratio since the record began in 2018, according to online recruiter Zhaopin Ltd. The pressure may be worse this quarter and next, when most students graduate, BofA says.\r\n\r\n \r\n<h3>China Unemployment 'Complex and Grim'<\/h3>\r\nPremier <a href="https:\/\/english.www.gov.cn\/premier">Li Keqiang<\/a> has called the labour market situation "complex and grim," especially in big cities and among young people. He urged local governments to "use all available measures" to stabilise the economy and prioritise employment, and the State Council rolled out a policy-easing package to prop up growth on May 23. It includes improving social security payments.\r\n\r\nBut BofA says the "same-old policy playbook may prove insufficient'' this time.\r\n\r\n"Given the absence of substantial waivers to social security payment or notable measures to support migrant worker employment, announced measures are likely to prove insufficient,\u2019\u2019 said Pi and Qiao "The government will need to consider more aggressive measures to contain the unemployment and mitigate income and consumption losses."\r\n\r\nThey said targeted wage subsidies and cash handouts would prove more efficient in stabilising employment and consumption.\r\n\r\n \r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>By Kevin Hamlin<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n \r\n\r\n<style>.embed-container { position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; height: 0; overflow: hidden; max-width: 100%; } .embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container embed { position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; }<\/style>\r\n<div class="embed-container"><iframe src="https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/\/CxPXuXumwxQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"><\/iframe><\/div>\r\n \r\n<h3><\/h3>\r\n<h3>ALSO ON AF:<\/h3>\r\n<h3><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/china-unemployment-situation-grave-premier-li-warns-cnn">China Unemployment Situation Grave, Premier Li Warns \u2013 CNN<\/a><\/h3>\r\n<h3 class="reports-big-head"><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/explainer-how-common-prosperity-is-changing-china">Explainer: How \u2018Common Prosperity\u2019 is Changing China<\/a><\/h3>\r\n \r\n\r\n ", "articleSection": "China", "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/china-youth-unemployment-to-hit-23-bank-of-america-says" }, "headline": "China Youth Unemployment to Hit 23%, Bank of America Says", "description": "The\u00a0shock\u00a0to the labour market\u00a0appears\u00a0deeper,\u00a0broader\u00a0and\u00a0more long-lasting\u00a0than\u00a0that in\u00a02020, say Bank of America economists", "datePublished": "2022-06-06T11:03:57+00:00", "dateModified": "2022-06-08T10:03:41+00:00", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Asia Financial", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/wp-content\/themes\/atf\/images\/AF-logo-small.png", "width": "640", "height": "97" } }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Asia Financial" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/china_jobs_fair.jpg" } }</script> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-CNH68EHNDT"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; 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font-size: 12px; font-weight: 500; margin-top: 10px; color: #aaaaaa;"> File photo of a China jobs fair by AFP. </figcaption> </figure> </div> <div class="content"> <p> </p> <p>China’s unemployment rate will hit a record high in the coming months with youth unemployment surging to 23%, says Bank of America.</p> <p>The jobless rate in big cities will likely exceed 7% and the rate among people aged 16 to 24 may jump to 23% in July and August, wrote economists <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/xiaoqingpi/?originalSubdomain=hk">Pi Xiaoqing</a> and <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/helen-hong-qiao-a7a2901/?original_referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Egoogle%2Eco%2Euk%2F&originalSubdomain=hk">Helen Qiao</a> in a June 6 note. The shock to the labour market from Covid lockdowns has ”crippled businesses,” they added.</p> <p>“The shock on [the] labour market appears deeper, broader and more long-lasting than that in 2020,” they wrote. That’s because “more industrial hubs are likely impacted during the peak production season, and sectors which picked up the job market slack back then are losing steam,’’ they said.</p> <p>They expect the nationwide unemployment rate to breach 6.5% in coming months, compared with 6.1% in April, before falling below 6% when Covid-zero restrictions eventually ease.</p> <p>The unemployment rate in 31 major cities rose to a record high 6.7% in April as big cities including Shanghai were locked down, while youth unemployment rose to 18.2%. The jobless rate of migrant workers rose more sharply than those of locals, the economists said.</p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <h3>READ MORE: <a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/china-pe-investor-warns-of-economic-paralysis-ft">China Economy in Worst Shape in 30 Years, Says PAG – FT</a></h3> <p> </p> <h3>Gauges to Deteriorate</h3> <p>“We expect these gauges to continue to deteriorate in the near future,’’ said Pi and Qiao. “Labour market indicators usually lag the co-incident and leading economic activity indicators by months, and are unlikely to bottom out before economic growth bounces back.’’</p> <p>The official gauges also likely undercount the stress on the ground, they added.</p> <p>New recruitment, informal hiring and income growth are the areas of most stress and are likely to decelerate notably right away, the economists said. Fresh college graduates, flexibly employed individuals and migrant workers will be hit by “the shockwave first,” they said.</p> <p>In the first quarter this year, there was a 0.71 vacancy rate for each graduating job seeker, the lowest ratio since the record began in 2018, according to online recruiter Zhaopin Ltd. The pressure may be worse this quarter and next, when most students graduate, BofA says.</p> <p> </p> <h3>China Unemployment ‘Complex and Grim’</h3> <p>Premier <a href="https://english.www.gov.cn/premier">Li Keqiang</a> has called the labour market situation “complex and grim,” especially in big cities and among young people. He urged local governments to “use all available measures” to stabilise the economy and prioritise employment, and the State Council rolled out a policy-easing package to prop up growth on May 23. It includes improving social security payments.</p> <p>But BofA says the “same-old policy playbook may prove insufficient” this time.</p> <p>“Given the absence of substantial waivers to social security payment or notable measures to support migrant worker employment, announced measures are likely to prove insufficient,’’ said Pi and Qiao “The government will need to consider more aggressive measures to contain the unemployment and mitigate income and consumption losses.”</p> <p>They said targeted wage subsidies and cash handouts would prove more efficient in stabilising employment and consumption.</p> <p> </p> <ul> <li>By Kevin Hamlin</li> </ul> <p> </p> <style>.embed-container { position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; height: 0; overflow: hidden; max-width: 100%; } .embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container embed { position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; }</style> <div class="embed-container"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed//CxPXuXumwxQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></div> <p> </p> <h3></h3> <h3>ALSO ON AF:</h3> <h3><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/china-unemployment-situation-grave-premier-li-warns-cnn">China Unemployment Situation Grave, Premier Li Warns – CNN</a></h3> <h3 class="reports-big-head"><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/explainer-how-common-prosperity-is-changing-china">Explainer: How ‘Common Prosperity’ is Changing China</a></h3> <p> </p> <p> </p> <div class="tags"> </div> <div class="author-box"> <div class="profile_images"><img width="96" height="96" src="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Kevin-Hamlin-2-96x96.jpg" class="avatar avatar-96 photo imgauthor" alt="" loading="lazy" srcset="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Kevin-Hamlin-2-96x96.jpg 96w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Kevin-Hamlin-2-150x150.jpg 150w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Kevin-Hamlin-2-24x24.jpg 24w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Kevin-Hamlin-2-48x48.jpg 48w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Kevin-Hamlin-2.jpg 242w" sizes="100vw" /></div> <div class="author-content"> <h3><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/author/kevin-hamlin">Kevin Hamlin </a></h3> <p style="font-size: 14px;"> Kevin Hamlin is a financial journalist with extensive experience covering Asia. Before joining Asia Financial, Kevin worked for Bloomberg News, spending 12 years as Senior China Economy Reporter in Beijing. 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