Mysteel月报：4月模具钢市场价格偏弱运行-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>特钢</a>类模具钢生产企业31家（不含黄石地区），3月份模具钢总产量为3.51万吨，较2月份减少0.13万吨，环比下降3.57%，较2022年3月份同比减少20.41%。由于下游行业订单不够理想，再加上前期原料价格处于高位，在保产能利率的情况下，品种利润较高的品种优先被生产配比，模具钢产量有所减少。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> <img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/03/31/09e1b75f674345eab9dd2c5be2b8b3ee.png" alt="" width="566" height="355" /></p> <p style="text-align: left;" align="center"> 图1：2022年以来国内特殊钢钢厂模具钢产量统计数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>二、3月份国内模具钢市场运行情况回顾</p> <p>1、模具钢市场价格走势回顾</p> <p>3月份国内模具钢市场价格高位回落，下游终端需求跟进缓慢，其中冷作、热作模具钢均价分别为14360元/吨和18860元/吨，较月初分别下跌130元/吨、300元/吨。随着钼铁价格持续回落，市场价格出现小幅走低，暗价资源显现，但是以价换量效果不理想。 <img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/03/31/6dd2d9fdefab4210b21cbec124e7ad45.png" alt="" width="600" height="379.87616099071204" /></p> <p style="text-align: left;" align="center">图2:2022年以来国内主流模具钢产品均价走势数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>2、模具钢库存情况</p> <p>据我网所持续跟踪的30家模具钢流通企业调研样本，3月份，市场商家库存在7.06万吨，较2月减少0.62万吨，较2022年同期同比上升0.57%。3月上旬去库速度加快，下旬由于价格下跌后，下游补库需求下降，去库速度放缓。 </p> <p align="center"><img src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/03/31/04f1d1b180d04786a5eb861e6e89decf.png" alt="" width="554" height="331" /></p> <p style="text-align: left;" align="center">图3:2022年至今模具钢社会库存情况数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p>三、原料<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0303-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁合金</a>运行情况</p> <p>3月钒合金市场价格承压弱势运行，现钒铁FeV50现金价13.6-13.8万元/吨。近期钒系市场依旧较为混乱，报价及成交价格价差较大，钢厂最新招标定价也与市场价格相差较大；本月国内钼铁价格接连走弱，月底钼铁主流现金出厂报价在20.0-21.5万元/吨。钢招价格持续破位下，短期终端需求有所恢复，对低迷钼市的信心有所提升，预计短期钼市维持弱势运行，后边继续关注钢招及矿山出货情况；国内钨系市场略有回调，目前FeW80主流报18.0万元/吨。由于市场需求不显露，上游承压不好释放货源，钨铁受原料影响小幅下跌。国际市场少量订单，多增询单，观望后期成交表现。 </p> <p align="center"><img src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/03/31/f426f83493854bfea7894f2cb566c2f5.png" alt="" width="600" height="428.8492706645057" /></p> <p style="text-align: left;" align="center">图4:2022年至今模具钢主要原料价格走势数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p style="text-align: left;" align="center">四、3月份国内模具钢市场价格弱势下行</p> <p>1、3月PMI小幅回落我国经济持续企稳回升</p> <p>2023年3月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为51.9%，比上月下降0.7个百分点。受上月高基数等因素影响，3月制造业PMI有所回落，景气水平仍为近两年次高点。分项指数变化显示，市场需求平稳较快增长，生产活动稳定恢复，大中小型企业经营活动稳中有增，企业成本趋于下降。</p> <p>2、终端采购受阻 3月份国内模具钢弱势下行</p> <p>3月国内模具钢市场价格弱势下行，市场交投气氛不佳。在钼铁持续大幅下跌的情况下，各市场含钼材质报价也纷纷下调，终端采购受阻。商家对后市信心缺乏，实行“一单一议”的价格，基本不锁定价格。目前多数终端企业乏力，大户成交不畅，预计4月模具钢市场或将弱势震荡运行。</p> <p>3、外需收缩加剧出口下行 3月模具钢出口量下滑</p> <p>据我网跟踪的数据，3月份国内模具钢出口总量为0.89万吨，占总模具钢产量的21.43%。部分以出口为主的企业出口量继续小幅萎缩，在外需不足的情况下，国内模具钢市场竞争力度加大，供需压力仍然存在。</p> <p>五、后期预测</p> <p>3月模具钢市场价格高位回落，刚需采购低迷。鉴于需求不及预期，商户心态转差，抛售套现意图明显，议价空间持续加大。近阶段模具钢成品材及下游行业出口订单不足，短期之内难有改善，将延续低迷格局。随着原材料价格高位回落，含钼钢利润有所修复，预计4月模具钢市场价格或将继续偏弱震荡。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：顾颖 021-26093810 </br> 资讯监督：陈靖夫 021-26093640 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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