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class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2</span> <span>Pathways used in modelling</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Pathways_used_in_modelling-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Pathways used in modelling subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Pathways_used_in_modelling-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-RCP_1.9" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#RCP_1.9"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.1</span> <span>RCP 1.9</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-RCP_1.9-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-RCP_2.6" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#RCP_2.6"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2</span> <span>RCP 2.6</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-RCP_2.6-sublist" 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class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.6</span> <span>RCP 7</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-RCP_7-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-RCP_8.5" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#RCP_8.5"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.7</span> <span>RCP 8.5</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-RCP_8.5-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Projections_based_on_the_RCPs" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Projections_based_on_the_RCPs"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3</span> <span>Projections based on the RCPs</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Projections_based_on_the_RCPs-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle 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</a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#References"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5</span> <span>References</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-References-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-External_links" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#External_links"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6</span> <span>External links</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-External_links-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="Contents" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" 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Concentration Pathway</span></h1> <div id="p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-lang" > <input type="checkbox" id="p-lang-btn-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox mw-interlanguage-selector" aria-label="Go to an article in another language. Available in 12 languages" > <label id="p-lang-btn-label" for="p-lang-btn-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive mw-portlet-lang-heading-12" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-language-progressive mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-language-progressive"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">12 languages</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ar mw-list-item"><a href="https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%B1_%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%B2_%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%AB%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A" title="مسار تركيز تمثيلي – Arabic" lang="ar" hreflang="ar" data-title="مسار تركيز تمثيلي" data-language-autonym="العربية" data-language-local-name="Arabic" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>العربية</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ca mw-list-item"><a href="https://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escenaris_RCP" title="Escenaris RCP – Catalan" lang="ca" hreflang="ca" data-title="Escenaris RCP" data-language-autonym="Català" data-language-local-name="Catalan" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Català</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-cs mw-list-item"><a href="https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reprezentativn%C3%AD_sm%C4%9Bry_v%C3%BDvoje_koncentrac%C3%AD" title="Reprezentativní směry vývoje koncentrací – Czech" lang="cs" hreflang="cs" data-title="Reprezentativní směry vývoje koncentrací" data-language-autonym="Čeština" data-language-local-name="Czech" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Čeština</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-da mw-list-item"><a href="https://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway" title="Representative Concentration Pathway – Danish" lang="da" hreflang="da" data-title="Representative Concentration Pathway" data-language-autonym="Dansk" data-language-local-name="Danish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Dansk</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Repr%C3%A4sentativer_Konzentrationspfad" title="Repräsentativer Konzentrationspfad – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Repräsentativer Konzentrationspfad" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trayectorias_de_concentraci%C3%B3n_representativas" title="Trayectorias de concentración representativas – Spanish" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="Trayectorias de concentración representativas" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="Spanish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Español</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sc%C3%A9nario_RCP" title="Scénario RCP – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Scénario RCP" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ig mw-list-item"><a href="https://ig.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E1%BB%A4z%E1%BB%8D_Nch%E1%BB%8Bk%E1%BB%8Dta_Nd%E1%BB%8B_Nn%E1%BB%8Dchiteanya" title="Ụzọ Nchịkọta Ndị Nnọchiteanya – Igbo" lang="ig" hreflang="ig" data-title="Ụzọ Nchịkọta Ndị Nnọchiteanya" data-language-autonym="Igbo" data-language-local-name="Igbo" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Igbo</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-he mw-list-item"><a href="https://he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%9E%D7%AA%D7%95%D7%95%D7%99%D7%9D_%D7%9E%D7%99%D7%99%D7%A6%D7%92%D7%99%D7%9D_%D7%A9%D7%9C_%D7%A8%D7%99%D7%9B%D7%95%D7%96_(RCP)" title="מתווים מייצגים של ריכוז (RCP) – Hebrew" lang="he" hreflang="he" data-title="מתווים מייצגים של ריכוז (RCP)" data-language-autonym="עברית" data-language-local-name="Hebrew" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>עברית</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-nl mw-list-item"><a href="https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/RCP_scenario%27s" title="RCP scenario's – Dutch" lang="nl" hreflang="nl" data-title="RCP scenario's" data-language-autonym="Nederlands" data-language-local-name="Dutch" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Nederlands</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pl mw-list-item"><a href="https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenariusze_RCP" title="Scenariusze RCP – Polish" lang="pl" hreflang="pl" data-title="Scenariusze RCP" data-language-autonym="Polski" data-language-local-name="Polish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Polski</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-zh mw-list-item"><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BB%A3%E8%A1%A8%E6%80%A7%E6%BF%83%E5%BA%A6%E8%B7%AF%E5%BE%91" title="代表性濃度路徑 – Chinese" lang="zh" 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</div> </div> <div id="bodyContent" class="vector-body" aria-labelledby="firstHeading" data-mw-ve-target-container> <div class="vector-body-before-content"> <div class="mw-indicators"> </div> <div id="siteSub" class="noprint">From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</div> </div> <div id="contentSub"><div id="mw-content-subtitle"></div></div> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux" style="display:none">Projections used in climate change modeling</div> <figure class="mw-default-size mw-halign-right" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:All_forcing_agents_CO2_equivalent_concentration.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ab/All_forcing_agents_CO2_equivalent_concentration.svg/330px-All_forcing_agents_CO2_equivalent_concentration.svg.png" decoding="async" width="330" height="204" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ab/All_forcing_agents_CO2_equivalent_concentration.svg/495px-All_forcing_agents_CO2_equivalent_concentration.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ab/All_forcing_agents_CO2_equivalent_concentration.svg/660px-All_forcing_agents_CO2_equivalent_concentration.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="960" data-file-height="592" /></a><figcaption>Different RCP scenarios result in different predicted <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">greenhouse gas</a> concentrations in the atmosphere (from 2000 to 2100). RCP8.5 would result in the highest greenhouse gas concentration (measured as CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalents).</figcaption></figure> <p><b>Representative Concentration Pathways</b> (<b>RCP</b>) are <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_scenario" title="Climate change scenario">climate change scenarios</a> to project future <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">greenhouse gas</a> concentrations. These pathways (or <i>trajectories</i>) describe future greenhouse gas concentrations (not <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions" title="Greenhouse gas emissions">emissions</a>) and have been formally adopted by the <a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">IPCC.</a> The pathways describe different climate change scenarios, all of which were considered possible depending on the amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted in the years to come. The four RCPs – originally RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 – are labelled after the expected changes in <a href="/wiki/Radiative_forcing" title="Radiative forcing">radiative forcing</a> from the year 1750 to the year 2100 (2.6, 4.5, 6, and 8.5 W/m<sup>2</sup>, respectively).<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The IPCC <a href="/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Fifth Assessment Report">Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)</a> began to use these four pathways for <a href="/wiki/Climate_model" title="Climate model">climate modeling</a> and research in 2014. The higher values mean higher greenhouse gas emissions and therefore higher <a href="/wiki/Global_surface_temperature" title="Global surface temperature">global surface temperatures</a> and more pronounced <a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change" title="Effects of climate change">effects of climate change</a>. The lower RCP values, on the other hand, are more desirable for humans but would require more stringent <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">climate change mitigation</a> efforts to achieve them. </p><p>In the IPCC's <a href="/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Sixth Assessment Report">Sixth Assessment Report</a> the original pathways are now being considered together with <a href="/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways" title="Shared Socioeconomic Pathways">Shared Socioeconomic Pathways</a>. There are three new RCPs, namely RCP1.9, RCP3.4 and RCP7.<sup id="cite_ref-CarbonBrief_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-CarbonBrief-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> A short description of the RCPs is as follows: RCP 1.9 is a pathway that limits <a href="/wiki/Global_warming" class="mw-redirect" title="Global warming">global warming</a> to below 1.5 °C, the aspirational goal of the <a href="/wiki/Paris_Agreement" title="Paris Agreement">Paris Agreement</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-CarbonBrief_4-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-CarbonBrief-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> RCP 2.6 is a <i>very stringent</i> pathway.<sup id="cite_ref-CarbonBrief_4-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-CarbonBrief-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> RCP 3.4 represents an intermediate pathway between the <i>very stringent</i> RCP2.6 and less stringent mitigation efforts associated with RCP4.5.<sup id="cite_ref-:1_5-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> RCP 4.5 is described by the IPCC as an <i>intermediate scenario</i>.<sup id="cite_ref-ReferenceA_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ReferenceA-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In RCP 6, emissions peak around 2080, then decline.<sup id="cite_ref-:2_7-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> RCP7 is a <i>baseline outcome</i> rather than a mitigation target.<sup id="cite_ref-CarbonBrief_4-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-CarbonBrief-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In RCP 8.5 emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century.<sup id="cite_ref-:0_8-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: Figure 2, p. 223">: Figure 2, p. 223 </span></sup> </p><p>For the extended RCP2.6 scenario, global warming of 0.0 to 1.2 °C is projected for the late 23rd century (2281–2300 average), relative to 1986–2005.<sup id="cite_ref-collins_23rd_century_projections_9-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-collins_23rd_century_projections-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> For the extended RCP8.5, global warming of 3.0 to 12.6 °C is projected over the same time period.<sup id="cite_ref-collins_23rd_century_projections_9-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-collins_23rd_century_projections-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Concentrations">Concentrations</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Representative_Concentration_Pathway&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Concentrations"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The RCPs are consistent with a wide range of possible changes in future anthropogenic (i.e., human) <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions" title="Greenhouse gas emissions">greenhouse gas emissions</a>, and aim to represent their atmospheric concentrations.<sup id="cite_ref-collins_rcp_ghg_emissions_10-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-collins_rcp_ghg_emissions-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Despite characterizing RCPs in terms of inputs, a key change from the 2007 to the 2014 IPCC report is that the RCPs ignore the <a href="/wiki/Carbon_cycle" title="Carbon cycle">carbon cycle</a> by focusing on concentrations of greenhouse gases, not greenhouse gas inputs.<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The IPCC studies the carbon cycle separately, predicting higher ocean uptake of carbon corresponding to higher concentration pathways, but land carbon uptake is much more uncertain due to the combined effect of climate change and <a href="/wiki/Land_use_change" class="mw-redirect" title="Land use change">land use changes</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The four RCPs are consistent with certain socio-economic assumptions but are being substituted with the <a href="/wiki/Shared_socioeconomic_pathways" class="mw-redirect" title="Shared socioeconomic pathways">shared socioeconomic pathways</a> which are anticipated to provide flexible descriptions of possible futures within each RCP. The RCP scenarios superseded the <a href="/wiki/Special_Report_on_Emissions_Scenarios" title="Special Report on Emissions Scenarios">Special Report on Emissions Scenarios</a> projections published in 2000 and were based on similar socio-economic models.<sup id="cite_ref-Ward2012_13-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Ward2012-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Pathways_used_in_modelling">Pathways used in modelling</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Representative_Concentration_Pathway&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Pathways used in modelling"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="RCP_1.9">RCP 1.9</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Representative_Concentration_Pathway&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: RCP 1.9"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>RCP 1.9 is a pathway that limits <a href="/wiki/Global_warming" class="mw-redirect" title="Global warming">global warming</a> to below 1.5 °C, the aspirational goal of the <a href="/wiki/Paris_Agreement" title="Paris Agreement">Paris Agreement</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-CarbonBrief_4-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-CarbonBrief-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="RCP_2.6">RCP 2.6</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Representative_Concentration_Pathway&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: RCP 2.6"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>RCP 2.6 is a "very stringent" pathway.<sup id="cite_ref-CarbonBrief_4-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-CarbonBrief-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> According to the IPCC, RCP 2.6 requires that carbon dioxide (CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub>) emissions start declining by 2020 and go to zero by 2100. It also requires that <a href="/wiki/Methane_emissions" title="Methane emissions">methane emissions</a> (<style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1123817410">.mw-parser-output .template-chem2-su{display:inline-block;font-size:80%;line-height:1;vertical-align:-0.35em}.mw-parser-output .template-chem2-su>span{display:block;text-align:left}.mw-parser-output sub.template-chem2-sub{font-size:80%;vertical-align:-0.35em}.mw-parser-output sup.template-chem2-sup{font-size:80%;vertical-align:0.65em}</style><span class="chemf nowrap">CH<sub class="template-chem2-sub">4</sub></span>) go to approximately half the <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1123817410"><span class="chemf nowrap">CH<sub class="template-chem2-sub">4</sub></span> levels of 2020, and that sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions decline to approximately 10% of those of 1980–1990. Like all the other RCPs, RCP 2.6 requires negative CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> emissions (such as CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> absorption by trees). For RCP 2.6, those negative emissions would be on average 2 Gigatons of CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> per year (GtCO<sub>2</sub>/yr).<sup id="cite_ref-ar5-syr.ipcc.ch_14-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar5-syr.ipcc.ch-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> RCP 2.6 is likely to keep global temperature rise below 2 °C by 2100.<sup id="cite_ref-ReferenceA_6-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ReferenceA-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="RCP_3.4">RCP 3.4</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Representative_Concentration_Pathway&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: RCP 3.4"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1251242444">.mw-parser-output .ambox{border:1px solid #a2a9b1;border-left:10px solid #36c;background-color:#fbfbfb;box-sizing:border-box}.mw-parser-output .ambox+link+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+link+style+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+link+link+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+.mw-empty-elt+link+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+.mw-empty-elt+link+style+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+.mw-empty-elt+link+link+.ambox{margin-top:-1px}html body.mediawiki .mw-parser-output .ambox.mbox-small-left{margin:4px 1em 4px 0;overflow:hidden;width:238px;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:88%;line-height:1.25em}.mw-parser-output .ambox-speedy{border-left:10px solid #b32424;background-color:#fee7e6}.mw-parser-output .ambox-delete{border-left:10px solid #b32424}.mw-parser-output .ambox-content{border-left:10px solid #f28500}.mw-parser-output .ambox-style{border-left:10px solid #fc3}.mw-parser-output .ambox-move{border-left:10px solid #9932cc}.mw-parser-output .ambox-protection{border-left:10px solid #a2a9b1}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-text{border:none;padding:0.25em 0.5em;width:100%}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-image{border:none;padding:2px 0 2px 0.5em;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-imageright{border:none;padding:2px 0.5em 2px 0;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-empty-cell{border:none;padding:0;width:1px}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-image-div{width:52px}@media(min-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .ambox{margin:0 10%}}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .ambox{display:none!important}}</style><table class="box-Expand_section plainlinks metadata ambox mbox-small-left ambox-content" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td class="mbox-image"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Wiki_letter_w_cropped.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="[icon]" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1c/Wiki_letter_w_cropped.svg/20px-Wiki_letter_w_cropped.svg.png" decoding="async" width="20" height="14" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1c/Wiki_letter_w_cropped.svg/30px-Wiki_letter_w_cropped.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1c/Wiki_letter_w_cropped.svg/40px-Wiki_letter_w_cropped.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="44" data-file-height="31" /></a></span></td><td class="mbox-text"><div class="mbox-text-span">This section <b>needs expansion</b>. You can help by <a class="external text" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Representative_Concentration_Pathway&action=edit&section=">adding to it</a>. <span class="date-container"><i>(<span class="date">March 2020</span>)</i></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table> <p>RCP 3.4 represents an intermediate pathway between the "very stringent" RCP2.6 and less stringent mitigation efforts associated with RCP4.5.<sup id="cite_ref-:1_5-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> As well as just providing another option a variant of RCP3.4 includes considerable <a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_removal" title="Carbon dioxide removal">removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-CarbonBrief_4-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-CarbonBrief-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>A 2021 paper suggests that the most plausible projections of cumulative CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> emissions (having a 0.1% or 0.3% tolerance with historical accuracy) tend to suggest that RCP 3.4 (3.4 W/m^2, 2.0–2.4 degrees Celsius warming by 2100 according to study) is the most plausible pathway.<sup id="cite_ref-Pielke2021_15-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Pielke2021-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="RCP_4.5">RCP 4.5</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Representative_Concentration_Pathway&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: RCP 4.5"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>RCP 4.5 is described by the IPCC as an intermediate scenario.<sup id="cite_ref-ReferenceA_6-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ReferenceA-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Emissions in RCP 4.5 peak around 2040, then decline.<sup id="cite_ref-:0_8-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: Figure 2, p. 223">: Figure 2, p. 223 </span></sup> According to resource specialists IPCC emission scenarios are biased towards exaggerated availability of <a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuels" class="mw-redirect" title="Fossil fuels">fossil fuels</a> reserves; RCP 4.5 is the most probable baseline scenario (no climate policies) taking into account the exhaustible character of non-renewable fuels.<sup id="cite_ref-16" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>According to the IPCC, RCP 4.5 requires that carbon dioxide (CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub>) emissions start declining by approximately 2045 to reach roughly half of the levels of 2050 by 2100. It also requires that methane emissions (<link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1123817410"><span class="chemf nowrap">CH<sub class="template-chem2-sub">4</sub></span>) stop increasing by 2050 and decline somewhat to about 75% of the <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1123817410"><span class="chemf nowrap">CH<sub class="template-chem2-sub">4</sub></span> levels of 2040, and that sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions decline to approximately 20% of those of 1980–1990. Like all the other RCPs, RCP 4.5 requires negative CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> emissions (such as CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> absorption by trees). For RCP 4.5, those negative emissions would be 2 Gigatons of CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> per year (GtCO<sub>2</sub>/yr).<sup id="cite_ref-ar5-syr.ipcc.ch_14-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar5-syr.ipcc.ch-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> RCP 4.5 is more likely than not to result in global temperature rise between 2 °C and 3 °C, by 2100 with a mean <a href="/wiki/Sea_level_rise" title="Sea level rise">sea level rise</a> 35% higher than that of RCP 2.6.<sup id="cite_ref-18" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Many plant and animal species will be unable to adapt to the effects of RCP 4.5 and higher RCPs.<sup id="cite_ref-19" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="RCP_6">RCP 6</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Representative_Concentration_Pathway&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: RCP 6"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>In RCP 6, emissions peak around 2080, then decline.<sup id="cite_ref-:2_7-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The RCP 6.0 scenario uses a high greenhouse gas emission rate and is a stabilisation scenario where total radiative forcing is stabilised after 2100 by employment of a range of technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 6.0 W/m<sup>2</sup> refers to the radiative forcing reached by 2100 Projections for temperature according to RCP 6.0 include continuous global warming through 2100 where CO<sub>2</sub> levels rise to 670 ppm by 2100 making the global temperature rise by about 3–4 °C by 2100.<sup id="cite_ref-20" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="RCP_7">RCP 7</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Representative_Concentration_Pathway&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: RCP 7"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>RCP7 is a baseline outcome rather than a mitigation target.<sup id="cite_ref-CarbonBrief_4-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-CarbonBrief-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="RCP_8.5">RCP 8.5</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Representative_Concentration_Pathway&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: RCP 8.5"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>In RCP 8.5 emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century.<sup id="cite_ref-:0_8-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: Figure 2, p. 223">: Figure 2, p. 223 </span></sup> RCP8.5 is generally taken as the basis for worst-case climate change scenarios. Since the publication of the <a href="/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Fifth Assessment Report">IPCC Fifth Assessment Report</a> (2014) the likelihood of this RCP has been debated, due to overestimation of projected coal outputs.<sup id="cite_ref-HausfatherPeters2020_21-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-HausfatherPeters2020-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-22" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> On the other hand, many uncertainties remain on <a href="/wiki/Carbon_cycle" title="Carbon cycle">carbon cycle</a> feedbacks, which could lead to warmer temperatures than projected in representative concentration pathways.<sup id="cite_ref-23" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-23"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>23<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> RCP 8.5 is still used for predicting mid-century (and earlier) emissions based on current and stated policies.<sup id="cite_ref-24" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-24"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>24<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Projections_based_on_the_RCPs">Projections based on the RCPs</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Representative_Concentration_Pathway&action=edit&section=10" title="Edit section: Projections based on the RCPs"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="21st_century">21st century</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Representative_Concentration_Pathway&action=edit&section=11" title="Edit section: 21st century"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Mid- and late 21st-century (2046–2065 and 2081–2100 averages, respectively) projections of global warming and global mean sea level rise from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5 WG1) are tabulated below. The projections are relative to temperatures and sea levels in the late 20th to early 21st centuries (1986–2005 average). Temperature projections can be converted to a reference period of 1850–1900 or 1980–99 by adding 0.61 or 0.11 °C, respectively.<sup id="cite_ref-ar5_21st_century_projections_25-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar5_21st_century_projections-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <table class="wikitable"> <caption>AR5 global warming increase (°C) projections<sup id="cite_ref-ar5_21st_century_projections_25-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar5_21st_century_projections-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </caption> <tbody><tr> <th rowspan="2">Scenario</th> <th>2046–2065</th> <th>2081–2100 </th></tr> <tr> <th style="font-weight:normal;font-size:85%;">Mean (<i>likely</i> range) </th> <th style="font-weight:normal;font-size:85%;">Mean (<i>likely</i> range) </th></tr> <tr> <td>RCP2.6</td> <td>1.0 (0.4 to 1.6)</td> <td>1.0 (0.3 to 1.7) </td></tr> <tr> <td>RCP4.5</td> <td>1.4 (0.9 to 2.0)</td> <td>1.8 (1.1 to 2.6) </td></tr> <tr> <td>RCP6</td> <td>1.3 (0.8 to 1.8)</td> <td>2.2 (1.4 to 3.1) </td></tr> <tr> <td>RCP8.5</td> <td>2.0 (1.4 to 2.6)</td> <td>3.7 (2.6 to 4.8) </td></tr></tbody></table> <p>Across all RCPs, global mean temperature is projected to rise by 0.3 to 4.8 °C by the late 21st century. </p><p>According to a 2021 study in which plausible AR5 and RCP scenarios of CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> emissions are selected,<sup id="cite_ref-Pielke2021_15-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Pielke2021-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <table class="wikitable"> <caption>AR5 and RCP Scenarios and temperature change projections </caption> <tbody><tr> <th>RCP Scenario </th> <th>Range of Global Mean Temperature Increase (Celsius) – 2100 from pre-Industrial baseline </th></tr> <tr> <td>RCP 1.9 </td> <td>~1 to ~1.5 </td></tr> <tr> <td>RCP 2.6 </td> <td>~1.5 to ~2 </td></tr> <tr> <td>RCP 3.4 </td> <td>~2 to ~2.4 </td></tr> <tr> <td>RCP 4.5 </td> <td>~2.5 to ~3 </td></tr> <tr> <td>RCP 6.0 </td> <td>~3 to ~3.5 </td></tr> <tr> <td>RCP 7.5 </td> <td>~4 </td></tr> <tr> <td>RCP 8.5 </td> <td>~5 </td></tr></tbody></table> <table class="wikitable"> <caption>AR5 global mean sea level (m) increase projections<sup id="cite_ref-ar5_21st_century_projections_25-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ar5_21st_century_projections-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </caption> <tbody><tr> <th rowspan="2">Scenario</th> <th>2046–2065</th> <th>2081–2100 </th></tr> <tr> <th style="font-weight:normal;font-size:85%;">Mean (<i>likely</i> range) </th> <th style="font-weight:normal;font-size:85%;">Mean (<i>likely</i> range) </th></tr> <tr> <td>RCP2.6</td> <td>0.24 (0.17 to 0.32)</td> <td>0.40 (0.26 to 0.55) </td></tr> <tr> <td>RCP4.5</td> <td>0.26 (0.19 to 0.33)</td> <td>0.47 (0.32 to 0.63) </td></tr> <tr> <td>RCP6</td> <td>0.25 (0.18 to 0.32)</td> <td>0.48 (0.33 to 0.63) </td></tr> <tr> <td>RCP8.5</td> <td>0.30 (0.22 to 0.38)</td> <td>0.63 (0.45 to 0.82) </td></tr></tbody></table> <p><br /> Across all RCPs, global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.26 to 0.82 m by the late 21st century. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="23rd_century">23rd century</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Representative_Concentration_Pathway&action=edit&section=12" title="Edit section: 23rd century"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The <a href="/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Fifth Assessment Report">IPCC Fifth Assessment Report</a> also projected changes in climate beyond the 21st century. The extended RCP2.6 pathway assumes sustained net negative anthropogenic GHG emissions after the year 2070.<sup id="cite_ref-collins_rcp_ghg_emissions_10-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-collins_rcp_ghg_emissions-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <i>Negative emissions</i> means that in total, humans absorb more GHGs from the atmosphere than they release. The extended RCP8.5 pathway assumes continued anthropogenic GHG emissions after 2100.<sup id="cite_ref-collins_rcp_ghg_emissions_10-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-collins_rcp_ghg_emissions-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In the extended RCP 2.6 pathway, atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations reach around 360 ppmv by 2300, while in the extended RCP8.5 pathway, CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations reach around 2000 ppmv in 2250, which is nearly seven times the pre-industrial level.<sup id="cite_ref-collins_rcp_ghg_emissions_10-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-collins_rcp_ghg_emissions-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>For the extended RCP2.6 scenario, global warming of 0.0 to 1.2 °C is projected for the late 23rd century (2281–2300 average), relative to 1986–2005.<sup id="cite_ref-collins_23rd_century_projections_9-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-collins_23rd_century_projections-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> For the extended RCP8.5, global warming of 3.0 to 12.6 °C is projected over the same time period.<sup id="cite_ref-collins_23rd_century_projections_9-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-collins_23rd_century_projections-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Representative_Concentration_Pathway&action=edit&section=13" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Coupled_Model_Intercomparison_Project" title="Coupled Model Intercomparison Project">Coupled Model Intercomparison Project</a> – Collaboration for climate change study</li> <li><a href="/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Sixth Assessment Report">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</a> – Intergovernmental report on climate change</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Special_Report_on_Emissions_Scenarios" title="Special Report on Emissions Scenarios">Special Report on Emissions Scenarios</a> – 2000 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways" title="Shared Socioeconomic Pathways">Shared Socioeconomic Pathways</a> – Climate change scenarios</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Representative_Concentration_Pathway&action=edit&section=14" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap mw-references-columns"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/RCPs.html">"Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)"</a>. IPCC<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">13 February</span> 2019</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Representative+Concentration+Pathways+%28RCPs%29&rft.pub=IPCC&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fsedac.ipcc-data.org%2Fddc%2Far5_scenario_process%2FRCPs.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARepresentative+Concentration+Pathway" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-2">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFRichard_Moss2008" class="citation book cs1">Richard Moss; et al. 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Most papers in this issue are freely accessible.</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/aug/30/climate-change-rcp-handy-summary">The Guardian: A guide to the IPCC's new RCP emissions pathways</a> (2013)</li></ul> <div class="navbox-styles"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1129693374">.mw-parser-output .hlist dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul{margin:0;padding:0}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt,.mw-parser-output .hlist li{margin:0;display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul ol,.mw-parser-output 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title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div><div id="Climate_change" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change" title="Climate change">Climate change</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible expanded navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Overview" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Overview</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Causes_of_climate_change" title="Causes of climate change">Causes of climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change" title="Effects of climate change">Effects of climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">Climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">Climate change adaptation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Template:Climate_change_regions" title="Template:Climate change regions">By country and region</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Causes" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Causes_of_climate_change" title="Causes of climate change">Causes</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Overview</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_system" title="Climate system">Climate system</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_effect" title="Greenhouse effect">Greenhouse effect</a> (<a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere" title="Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere">Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change" title="Scientific consensus on climate change">Scientific consensus on climate change</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Sources</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Deforestation_and_climate_change" title="Deforestation and climate change">Deforestation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel" title="Fossil fuel">Fossil fuel</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">Greenhouse gases</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions" title="Greenhouse gas emissions">Greenhouse gas emissions</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_accounting" title="Carbon accounting">Carbon accounting</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_footprint" title="Carbon footprint">Carbon footprint</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_leakage" title="Carbon leakage">Carbon leakage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_from_agriculture" title="Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture">from agriculture</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_from_wetlands" title="Greenhouse gas emissions from wetlands">from wetlands</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_energy_supply_and_consumption" title="World energy supply and consumption">World energy supply and consumption</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="History" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">History</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/History_of_climate_change_policy_and_politics" title="History of climate change policy and politics">History of climate change policy and politics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science" title="History of climate change science">History of climate change science</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius" title="Svante Arrhenius">Svante Arrhenius</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/James_Hansen" title="James Hansen">James Hansen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Charles_David_Keeling" title="Charles David Keeling">Charles David Keeling</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Climate_Change_conference" class="mw-redirect" title="United Nations Climate Change conference">United Nations Climate Change conferences</a></li> <li>Years in climate change <ul><li><a href="/wiki/2019_in_climate_change" title="2019 in climate change">2019</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2020_in_climate_change" title="2020 in climate change">2020</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2021_in_climate_change" title="2021 in climate change">2021</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2022_in_climate_change" title="2022 in climate change">2022</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2023_in_climate_change" title="2023 in climate change">2023</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2024_in_climate_change" title="2024 in climate change">2024</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Effects_and_issues" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change" title="Effects of climate change">Effects and issues</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Physical</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Abrupt_climate_change" title="Abrupt climate change">Abrupt climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Anoxic_event" title="Anoxic event">Anoxic event</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions" title="Arctic methane emissions">Arctic methane emissions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline" title="Arctic sea ice decline">Arctic sea ice decline</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation" title="Atlantic meridional overturning circulation">Atlantic meridional overturning circulation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Drought" title="Drought">Drought</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extreme_weather" title="Extreme weather">Extreme weather</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood" title="Flood">Flood</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Coastal_flooding" title="Coastal flooding">Coastal flooding</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heat_wave" title="Heat wave">Heat wave</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Marine_heatwave" title="Marine heatwave">Marine</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_heat_island" title="Urban heat island">Urban heat island</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_oceans" title="Effects of climate change on oceans">Oceans</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_acidification" title="Ocean acidification">acidification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_deoxygenation" title="Ocean deoxygenation">deoxygenation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_heat_content" title="Ocean heat content">heat content</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature" title="Sea surface temperature">sea surface temperature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_stratification" title="Ocean stratification">stratification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_temperature" title="Ocean temperature">temperature</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ozone_depletion" title="Ozone depletion">Ozone depletion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Permafrost#Impacts_of_climate_change" title="Permafrost">Permafrost thaw</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850" title="Retreat of glaciers since 1850">Retreat of glaciers since 1850</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sea_level_rise" title="Sea level rise">Sea level rise</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Season_creep" title="Season creep">Season creep</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system" title="Tipping points in the climate system">Tipping points in the climate system</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tropical_cyclones_and_climate_change" title="Tropical cyclones and climate change">Tropical cyclones</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_the_water_cycle" title="Effects of climate change on the water cycle">Water cycle</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_wildfires" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change and wildfires">Wildfires</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Flora and fauna</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_biomes" title="Effects of climate change on biomes">Biomes</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mass_mortality_event" title="Mass mortality event">Mass mortality event</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_birds" title="Climate change and birds">Birds</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extinction_risk_from_climate_change" title="Extinction risk from climate change">Extinction risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Forest_dieback" title="Forest dieback">Forest dieback</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_invasive_species" title="Climate change and invasive species">Invasive species</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_impact_on_marine_life#Climate_change" title="Human impact on marine life">Marine life</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_plant_biodiversity" title="Effects of climate change on plant biodiversity">Plant biodiversity</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Social and economic</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_agriculture" title="Effects of climate change on agriculture">Agriculture</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_livestock" title="Effects of climate change on livestock">Livestock</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture_in_the_United_States" title="Climate change and agriculture in the United States">United States</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_children" title="Climate change and children">Children</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_cities" title="Climate change and cities">Cities</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse" title="Climate change and civilizational collapse">Civilizational collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_crime" title="Climate change and crime">Crime</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_areas_depopulated_due_to_climate_change" title="List of areas depopulated due to climate change">Depopulation of settlements</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_landmarks_destroyed_or_damaged_by_climate_change" title="List of landmarks destroyed or damaged by climate change">Destruction of cultural heritage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disability_and_climate_change" title="Disability and climate change">Disability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_analysis_of_climate_change" title="Economic analysis of climate change">Economic impacts</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_insurance_in_the_United_States" title="Climate change and insurance in the United States">U.S. insurance industry</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_fisheries" title="Climate change and fisheries">Fisheries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_gender" title="Climate change and gender">Gender</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_human_health" title="Effects of climate change on human health">Health</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_mental_health" title="Effects of climate change on mental health">Mental health</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_rights_and_climate_change" title="Human rights and climate change">Human rights</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_Indigenous_peoples" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change and Indigenous peoples">Indigenous peoples</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_infectious_diseases" title="Climate change and infectious diseases">Infectious diseases</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_migration" title="Climate migration">Migration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_poverty" title="Climate change and poverty">Poverty</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Psychological_impact_of_climate_change" title="Psychological impact of climate change">Psychological impacts</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_security" title="Climate security">Security and conflict</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_flooding" title="Urban flooding">Urban flooding</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_scarcity" title="Water scarcity">Water scarcity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_security" title="Water security">Water security</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Template:Climate_change_regions" title="Template:Climate change regions">By country and region</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Africa" title="Climate change in Africa">Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Americas" title="Climate change in the Americas">Americas</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Antarctica" title="Climate change in Antarctica">Antarctica</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Arctic" title="Climate change in the Arctic">Arctic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Asia" title="Climate change in Asia">Asia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Australia" title="Climate change in Australia">Australia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Caribbean" title="Climate change in the Caribbean">Caribbean</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Europe" title="Climate change in Europe">Europe</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa" title="Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa">Middle East and North Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_small_island_countries" title="Effects of climate change on small island countries">Small island countries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Category:Climate_change_by_country" title="Category:Climate change by country">by individual country</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Mitigation" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">Mitigation</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Economic_analysis_of_climate_change" title="Economic analysis of climate change">Economics and finance</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_budget" title="Carbon budget">Carbon budget</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_emission_trading" title="Carbon emission trading">Carbon emission trading</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_offsets_and_credits" title="Carbon offsets and credits">Carbon offsets and credits</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Gold_Standard_(carbon_offset_standard)" title="Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)">Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_price" title="Carbon price">Carbon price</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_tax" title="Carbon tax">Carbon tax</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_debt" title="Climate debt">Climate debt</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_finance" title="Climate finance">Climate finance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_risk_insurance" title="Climate risk insurance">Climate risk insurance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Co-benefits_of_climate_change_mitigation" class="mw-redirect" title="Co-benefits of climate change mitigation">Co-benefits of climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economics_of_climate_change_mitigation" title="Economics of climate change mitigation">Economics of climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_divestment" title="Fossil fuel divestment">Fossil fuel divestment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Green_Climate_Fund" title="Green Climate Fund">Green Climate Fund</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Low-carbon_economy" title="Low-carbon economy">Low-carbon economy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Net_zero_emissions" class="mw-redirect" title="Net zero emissions">Net zero emissions</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Energy</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_capture_and_storage" title="Carbon capture and storage">Carbon capture and storage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Energy_transition" title="Energy transition">Energy transition</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out" title="Fossil fuel phase-out">Fossil fuel phase-out</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nuclear_power" title="Nuclear power">Nuclear power</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Renewable_energy" title="Renewable energy">Renewable energy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainable_energy" title="Sustainable energy">Sustainable energy</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Preserving and enhancing<br /> <a href="/wiki/Carbon_sink" title="Carbon sink">carbon sinks</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Blue_carbon" title="Blue carbon">Blue carbon</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_removal" title="Carbon dioxide removal">Carbon dioxide removal</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration" title="Carbon sequestration">Carbon sequestration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Direct_air_capture" title="Direct air capture">Direct air capture</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_farming" title="Carbon farming">Carbon farming</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate-smart_agriculture" title="Climate-smart agriculture">Climate-smart agriculture</a></li> <li>Forest management <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Afforestation" title="Afforestation">afforestation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration#Forestry" title="Carbon sequestration">forestry for carbon sequestration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/REDD_and_REDD%2B" title="REDD and REDD+">REDD and REDD+</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reforestation" title="Reforestation">reforestation</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_use,_land-use_change,_and_forestry" title="Land use, land-use change, and forestry">Land use, land-use change, and forestry</a> (LULUCF and AFOLU)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nature-based_solutions" title="Nature-based solutions">Nature-based solutions</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Personal</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Individual_action_on_climate_change" title="Individual action on climate change">Individual action on climate change</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Plant-based_diet" title="Plant-based diet">Plant-based diet</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Society_and_adaptation" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Society and <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">adaptation</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Society</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Business_action_on_climate_change" title="Business action on climate change">Business action</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_action" title="Climate action">Climate action</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_emergency_declaration" title="Climate emergency declaration">Climate emergency declaration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_movement" title="Climate movement">Climate movement</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/School_Strike_for_Climate" class="mw-redirect" title="School Strike for Climate">School Strike for Climate</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_denial" title="Climate change denial">Denial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecological_grief" title="Ecological grief">Ecological grief</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_governance" title="Climate governance">Governance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_justice" title="Climate justice">Justice</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_litigation" title="Climate change litigation">Litigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Politics_of_climate_change" title="Politics of climate change">Politics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Public_opinion_on_climate_change" title="Public opinion on climate change">Public opinion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Women_in_climate_change" title="Women in climate change">Women</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">Adaptation</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation_strategies_on_the_German_coast" title="Climate change adaptation strategies on the German coast">Adaptation strategies on the German coast</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Adaptive_capacity" title="Adaptive capacity">Adaptive capacity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disaster_risk_reduction" title="Disaster risk reduction">Disaster risk reduction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecosystem-based_adaptation" title="Ecosystem-based adaptation">Ecosystem-based adaptation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood_control" class="mw-redirect" title="Flood control">Flood control</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Loss_and_damage_(climate_change)" title="Loss and damage (climate change)">Loss and damage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Managed_retreat" title="Managed retreat">Managed retreat</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nature-based_solutions" title="Nature-based solutions">Nature-based solutions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_resilience" title="Climate resilience">Resilience</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_risk" title="Climate risk">Risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_vulnerability" title="Climate change vulnerability">Vulnerability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/The_Adaptation_Fund" title="The Adaptation Fund">The Adaptation Fund</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_Adaptation_Programme_of_Action" title="National Adaptation Programme of Action">National Adaptation Programme of Action</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_communication" title="Climate communication">Communication</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_Change_Performance_Index" title="Climate Change Performance Index">Climate Change Performance Index</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_crisis" title="Climate crisis">Climate crisis (term)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_spiral" title="Climate spiral">Climate spiral</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_education" title="Climate change education">Education</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_coverage_of_climate_change" title="Media coverage of climate change">Media coverage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_popular_culture" title="Climate change in popular culture">Popular culture depictions</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_art" title="Climate change art">art</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_fiction" title="Climate fiction">fiction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_climate_change_video_games" class="mw-redirect" title="List of climate change video games">video games</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Warming_stripes" title="Warming stripes">Warming stripes</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">International agreements</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Glasgow_Climate_Pact" title="Glasgow Climate Pact">Glasgow Climate Pact</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol" title="Kyoto Protocol">Kyoto Protocol</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paris_Agreement" title="Paris Agreement">Paris Agreement</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cooperative_Mechanisms_under_Article_6_of_the_Paris_Agreement" title="Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement">Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nationally_determined_contribution" title="Nationally determined contribution">Nationally determined contributions</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainable_Development_Goal_13" title="Sustainable Development Goal 13">Sustainable Development Goal 13</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change" title="United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Background_and_theory" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Background and theory</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Measurements</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Global_surface_temperature" title="Global surface temperature">Global surface temperature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record" class="mw-redirect" title="Instrumental temperature record">Instrumental temperature record</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Proxy_(climate)" title="Proxy (climate)">Proxy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurement" title="Satellite temperature measurement">Satellite temperature measurement</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Theory</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Albedo" title="Albedo">Albedo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_cycle" title="Carbon cycle">Carbon cycle</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Atmospheric_carbon_cycle" title="Atmospheric carbon cycle">atmospheric</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Biological_pump" title="Biological pump">biologic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Oceanic_carbon_cycle" title="Oceanic carbon cycle">oceanic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Permafrost_carbon_cycle" title="Permafrost carbon cycle">permafrost</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sink" title="Carbon sink">Carbon sink</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="Climate sensitivity">Climate sensitivity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_variability_and_change" title="Climate variability and change">Climate variability and change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cloud_feedback" title="Cloud feedback">Cloud feedback</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cloud_forcing" class="mw-redirect" title="Cloud forcing">Cloud forcing</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fixed_anvil_temperature_hypothesis" title="Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis">Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cryosphere" title="Cryosphere">Cryosphere</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget" title="Earth's energy budget">Earth's energy budget</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extreme_event_attribution" title="Extreme event attribution">Extreme event attribution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_feedbacks" title="Climate change feedbacks">Feedbacks</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Global_warming_potential" title="Global warming potential">Global warming potential</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Illustrative_model_of_greenhouse_effect_on_climate_change" title="Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change">Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Orbital_forcing" title="Orbital forcing">Orbital forcing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Radiative_forcing" title="Radiative forcing">Radiative forcing</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Research and modelling</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_scenario" title="Climate change scenario">Climate change scenario</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_model" title="Climate model">Climate model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Coupled_Model_Intercomparison_Project" title="Coupled Model Intercomparison Project">Coupled Model Intercomparison Project</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Sixth Assessment Report">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paleoclimatology" title="Paleoclimatology">Paleoclimatology</a></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Representative Concentration Pathway</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways" title="Shared Socioeconomic Pathways">Shared Socioeconomic Pathways</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div> <ul><li><b><span class="nowrap"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="icon" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Climate_change_icon.png/16px-Climate_change_icon.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="15" 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