習近平訪歐企圖分化失敗，他忘了歐盟「戰略自主」也包含對中國自主

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Leyen）輪流表示立場，前者主張，法中貿易應更為健全、公平，他認為歐洲未來的發展，取決於是否與中國展開一個平衡的互動關係。而馮德萊恩強調與中國的全球貿易競爭，必須從公平的起使點出發，面對當前不平衡的互動關係，她認為不能持續下去，應該儘早處理中國補貼與傾銷電動車、鋼鐵的問題。對傾銷的認知差異與停戰共識儘管馬克宏與馮德萊恩積極處理中國的傾銷策略，馮德萊恩甚至直言即使要做出艱難決定，也要捍衛歐洲利益，是故，馮德萊恩以堅定立場試圖讓習近平妥協。然而，習近平認為，以比較優勢或全球市場需求的立場來觀察，中國根本不存在產能過剩的現象。顯然，雙邊在貿易對話上仍然沒有共識。不過，習近平在全球衝突議題上的應答，讓馬克宏感到放心，例如北京不會向莫斯科提供武器，而面對即將來臨的巴黎奧運，兩人共同主張全球應在賽期間停戰，維持長久以來的奧運期間全球停火傳統。在以巴衝突方面，兩人則齊力反對以色列進攻拉法，以及不贊成強制難民再次遷移的行為，認為雙邊應以「兩國方案」為基礎，確保以色列與巴勒斯坦和平發展、共處。習近平訪法期間一共簽署18項合作協定，合作領域囊括航空、農業、人文交流、綠色發展與中小企業等類型。鞏固東歐夥伴關係習近平5月8日至10日前往塞爾維亞與匈牙利。首先，塞爾維亞總統武契奇（Aleksandar Vucic）稱兩國在8日寫下歷史，不僅簽署29項經貿合作，而塞爾維亞與中國的自由貿易協定也將在今（2024）年7月1日生效，成為生效此類型合作的歐洲第一國。習近平表示，塞爾維亞八年前（2016）是第一個與中國簽署戰略夥伴的中東歐國家，現在則成為第一個與中國，簽署命運共同體聯合聲明的歐洲國家，充分展現兩國間的戰略與特殊價值。其次，習近平與匈牙利總統奧班（Viktor Orbán）會面後，宣佈簽署18項協定，這包括基礎建設、核能與汽車方面的合作。習近平認為中匈建交75年來關係友好，兩國領導人情誼深厚，已將兩國關係駛向「黃金航道」，因此特別將雙邊關係上升至「全天候全面戰略夥伴關係」，以此持續推動兩國的互動。「倒吃甘蔗漸入佳境」綜觀本次習近平出訪的內容，我們以「倒吃甘蔗漸入佳境」形容之，為此，作者將習近平出訪個國的背後含義羅列如下。（一）訪法意涵習近平將睽違五年的首次出訪國家獻給法國，而非相對友好的另一個西歐國家「德國」，原因有三：第一是德國總理蕭茲（Olaf Scholz）2024年4月訪中，習近平若回訪柏林，更能顯示誠意；但僅隔一個多月的光景，兩國近期實質合作成果應該沒有太大進展，因此將訪問機會，保留給近期尚未會晤的重要國家，而且也是歐洲統合重要的領導國「法國」。第二是支持「戰略自主」（Strategic Autonomy），尤其法國是該戰略死忠擁護者，習近平前往法國交流，一來是展現國家元首的互動；二來是展現誠意希望擴大中國與歐盟間的友好合作；三是期望法國能獨立邁出步伐而不受美國因素影響。中國官媒《環球時報》因此形容：「元首外交就是在風浪中，讓中歐這艘巨輪保持穩定不偏航的錨」。第三是釋出善意以降低傾銷爭議。事實上，中法貿易互補性極強，舉例來說，法國需要中國的電子產品、日用品與新能源汽車；而後者需要前者的奢侈品、化妝品與紅酒，換言之，雙邊都需要彼此。然而，馬克宏主張調查中國傾銷電動車，讓中國也想對歐盟干邑白蘭地傾銷調查，而歐盟的干邑主要出產地來自法國。不過，目前尚未實施此項措施。因此習近平此次前往法國，可謂與馬克宏面對面試探彼此溫度。儘管雙邊沒有太大的共識，但習近平也有不同的表態，例如主張透過積極對話降低貿易摩擦，並再次實現貿易平衡。（二）訪塞意涵在大國出訪之際，塞爾維亞鮮少成為旅途中的一站，不過習近平特別將該國列入出訪名單之一，可見中國對它的重視，例如貿易數據上能觀察到，中塞2016年貿易額為5.96億美元，2023年為43.5億美元，漲幅高達6.29倍，此外，兩國關係從2016年的全面戰略夥伴關係，提升至甫簽畢的「新時代中塞命運共同體聯合聲明」，更能看出關係昇華。不過，我們認為中國看重塞爾維亞不是因為經濟因素，而是聚焦在象徵意義，原因有二：意識形態相同塞爾維亞是親俄疏美的國家，而且塞爾維亞與中國都曾是北約攻擊下的受害者，起因是科索沃戰爭期間，塞爾維亞遭受北約轟炸，中國駐南斯拉夫大使館也被誤炸，此事拉近中塞關係。地緣戰略悉知，對習近平來說，塞爾維亞與科索沃如同「兩岸問題」，領土爭議與主權的完整性備受挑戰，基於此議題，又再次凝聚中塞兩國的向心力。（三）訪匈意涵匈牙利無疑是中國在歐盟會員國中最要好的朋友，因為當中國2013年發起「帶路倡議」（Belt and Road Initiative; BRI），匈牙利是第一個簽署合作的歐盟會員國，近年來對於中國的投資更是敞開雙手歡迎。而此次習近平訪匈，我們認為目的有二：規避歐盟對電動車的制裁悉知，中國電動車巨擘比亞迪與電池大廠寧德時代等不少相關企業，都在匈牙利設置工廠，當中國電動車未來可能被歐盟制裁時，若中國搶先一步在匈牙利製造與販售電動車，即在歐盟當地販售，此舉能正當規避制裁或課稅的措施，為中國省下不少關稅。推動友善歐中關係的政策匈牙利在2024下半年將接掌歐盟理事會（Council of the European Union）輪值主席國，中國憑藉與匈牙利的關係，希望後者利用主席國對議程的掌控權，推動友好匈牙利與中國，以及歐盟與中國的政策。習近平訪歐後，歐中關係將如何改變？表面上，習近平的歐洲行溫和且順利，領導人之間沒有爭吵與摩擦，而且習近平一度表示多點溝通才能降低貿易摩擦，貿易失衡的問題看似有可能被改善，或是由中方做出一些調整，有利改變雙邊合作態度，進而活絡歐中關係，但我們認為歐中關係未來走向不會有太大改變，而且短期也不會有樂觀的發展，四個主張如下：親美仍是歐洲本質在2024年11月美國大選前，現任美國總統拜登（Joe Biden）與歐洲的關係較為緊密，所以歐洲在美國與中國的選擇上，自然會較傾向美國，即便川普（Donald Trump）回歸，讓大西洋關係生變，歐盟也會想盡辦法維持「戰略自主」，並不過度依靠中國的經濟。中國尚未譴責俄羅斯除了制裁以外，對國際行為者的批判與譴責也是表態一國立場的最好方式，然而戰爭延燒至今，中國尚未批評俄羅斯的入侵行為，原因是中國始終奉行不干涉他國內政，這種「歐盟想要而中國偏不給」的互動態度，可能讓歐中關係持續有所隔閡。戰爭障礙從歐洲經濟安全戰略的角度來看，很多歐洲企業認為在中國投資有風險，而且承上觀點，只要中國不譴責或切割與俄羅斯的關係，兩者曖昧的態度，只會讓企業止步不前或有所克制地投資。因為在俄烏戰爭過程中，眾人已深刻體會過度依賴俄羅斯能源，只會造成更大的風險，同理可證，現在若太仰賴對中貿易，歐洲經濟容易處在風險裡。交友對象有限制受到戰爭影響與是否奉行「脫鉤」（Decouple），歐洲國家顯然比以往提防戒備中國的影響力，而中國為了試圖緩解氣氛，仍要想辦法活絡外交關係，只能先從較為友善、意識形態相似的國家下手。舉例來說，匈牙利、塞爾維亞持續加深對俄羅斯的關係，並同時具反美立場，對於中國來說就是「良友」。換言之，能互動的國家數量有所限制，因此歐中關係短期不會如此快解套。利用戰略自主分化歐美？習近平忘了，戰略自主也包含對中國自主觀察習近平的出訪過程，三點心得如下：首先，歐中仍處於平行時空：歐洲提倡的戰略自主，主要是一種自立自強概念，避免過度依賴美國或北約的政治、安全與防衛，或是俄羅斯或中國的能源或經濟。但這幾年中國眼中的戰略自主，是認為歐洲將切斷或削弱與英、美的聯繫，並走出自己的道路，因此始終支持該主張，希望歐盟執行戰略自主時，中國可從中深化歐中連結。此外，當習近平在愛麗榭宮（Élysée Palace）與馬克宏、馮德萊恩互動時，眾人在傾銷問題上明顯沒共識，各說各話的場景顯示交集甚少。其次，將塞爾維亞打造成第二個匈牙利。已知，匈牙利與中國關係匪淺，因此北京能透過布達佩斯加深其在歐洲的話語權，而塞爾維亞雖然不是會員國，但它至少已在2014年1月開始入盟談判。因此，它跟歐盟其實有相當程度的交集。那麼，中國持續拉攏之，早一步下錨固定兩國關係，等到塞爾維亞如期加入歐盟，中國在歐盟內的施力點又多了一國。最後，「歐盟團結」沒想像中的牢不可破：回顧過往的歐中互動，蕭茲2022年訪中並拒絕馬克宏同行，馬克宏只好與馮德萊恩2023年一同出訪北京。如今馬克宏邀約蕭茲來巴黎一同會晤習近平，又遭到拒絕；有趣的是，其實馬克宏與蕭茲5月2日便在巴黎共進晚餐，商討歐盟防衛與對中政策，但當習近平抵達巴黎，只見馮德萊恩與馬克宏兩人與習近平會談。換言之，只要有中國因素，德、法、歐洲執委會領導人便很難三人同台，這不僅象徵歐洲團結有疑慮，兩大統合領導國之間似乎面對中國議題時，很難有齊力發聲的的機會，在不團結的情況下，中國就有機會一一擊破、結交友人並分化歐洲。延伸閱讀習近平訪歐：鐵桿兄弟塞爾維亞、匈牙利「敲邊鼓罵民主」，扮和平使者背刺普亭分化歐美？習近平訪歐：將法國「戰略自主」玩弄於股掌之上，中國為推動「多極世界秩序」使出哪些招數？習近平訪歐：塞爾維亞積極取悅，歐洲強權冷眼看北京插旗；匈牙利民眾披台灣國旗扮小熊維尼抗議【加入關鍵評論網會員】每天精彩好文直送你的信箱，每週獨享編輯精選、時事精選、藝文週報等特製電子報。還可留言與作者、記者、編輯討論文章內容。立刻點擊免費加入會員！責任編輯：張博丞核稿編輯：翁世航"}</script> </head> <body class=""> <tnlmedia-header theme="styleLight" lang="zh-tw"></tnlmedia-header> <header id="mainHeader" class="main-header bg-white"> <div class="headers"> <div class="basebar container py-3 pt-lg-5 pb-lg-0"> <div class="d-lg-none "> <button type="button" 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text-style-link">陳稚寰</div> </a> <p class="card-text multiline-ellipsis-2 mt-3 mb-0 order-md-3 w-100 h6 fw-normal default-color text-muted">淡江大學歐洲研究所畢業，目前就讀比利時根特大學國際與歐洲研究所博士班，研究領域為歐盟政治制度、歐盟外交與安全政策、國際安全議題。熱愛健身、古典樂、逛舊書攤，樂於在一動一靜的力量轉換間、音色的高低起伏震盪下，激發出新的靈感與論點；享受被群書簇擁的感覺，以及在書堆中尋寶的樂趣。當前為歐洲新鮮人，希望發掘更多歐洲的特點與視角，以便在台灣主流的「英美元素」中，注入歐洲新思維！</p> <div class="social-btns ms-md-auto mt-3 mt-md-0 d-flex align-items-center justify-content-center order-md-2"> <button type="button" class="btn btn-primary btn-follow ms-auto ms-md-4 js-follow-author-btn opacity-0 animate__animated">追蹤<i class="icon far fa-heart"></i></button> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> <section class="border border-primary-800 notch-card mb-5"> <div class="h5 headine simple section-title bg-white">我們想讓你知道的是</div> <p class="h6 fw-normal default-color text-muted mb-0 card-padding-lg"> 對習近平來說，塞爾維亞與科索沃如同「兩岸問題」，領土爭議與主權的完整性備受挑戰，基於此議題，又再次凝聚中塞兩國的向心力。塞爾維亞雖然不是會員國，但它至少已在2014年1月開始入盟談判。中國持續拉攏之，早一步下錨固定兩國關係，等到塞爾維亞如期加入歐盟，中國在歐盟內的施力點將增加一國。 </p> </section> </div> <div class="js-advertise ad-content desktop-hide" style="min-height:326px"> <div class="tmgad tmgad-type-flux tmgad-new"> <script type="application/json">{"type":"flux","targeting":{"advertising":["0"],"cabinet":["628152"],"page_key":["article"],"page_name":["article"],"tag_key":["26","30","83","218","605","606","612","633","1114","1341","1385","1982","2386","2879","5365","8040","8205","9034","9172","22338","33718","71649","71932","73585","105750","114437","132039","193405","222771","244461","251251","287966","335948"],"tag_name":["\u4e2d\u570b","\u53f0\u7063","\u7f8e\u570b","\u96fb\u52d5\u8eca","\u5fb7\u570b","\u6cd5\u570b","\u5169\u5cb8","\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af","\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73","\u4e2d\u5171","\u50be\u92b7","\u95dc\u7a05","\u62dc\u767b","\u6b50\u76df","\u585e\u723e\u7dad\u4e9e","\u5308\u7259\u5229","\u4ee5\u5df4\u885d\u7a81","\u6b66\u5951\u5947","\u6771\u6b50","\u5ddd\u666e","\u99ae\u5fb7\u840a\u6069","\u53cd\u50be\u92b7","Viktor 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style="min-height:326px"> <div class="tmgad tmgad-type-flux tmgad-new"> <script type="application/json">{"type":"flux","targeting":{"advertising":["0"],"cabinet":["628152"],"page_key":["article"],"page_name":["article"],"tag_key":["26","30","83","218","605","606","612","633","1114","1341","1385","1982","2386","2879","5365","8040","8205","9034","9172","22338","33718","71649","71932","73585","105750","114437","132039","193405","222771","244461","251251","287966","335948"],"tag_name":["\u4e2d\u570b","\u53f0\u7063","\u7f8e\u570b","\u96fb\u52d5\u8eca","\u5fb7\u570b","\u6cd5\u570b","\u5169\u5cb8","\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af","\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73","\u4e2d\u5171","\u50be\u92b7","\u95dc\u7a05","\u62dc\u767b","\u6b50\u76df","\u585e\u723e\u7dad\u4e9e","\u5308\u7259\u5229","\u4ee5\u5df4\u885d\u7a81","\u6b66\u5951\u5947","\u6771\u6b50","\u5ddd\u666e","\u99ae\u5fb7\u840a\u6069","\u53cd\u50be\u92b7","Viktor Orban","\u7522\u80fd\u904e\u5269","\u6b50\u6d32\u7d71\u5408","\u5967\u73ed","\u99ac\u514b\u5b8f","\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u722d","\u812b\u9264","\u856d\u8332","\u6230\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b","Aleksandar Vucic","\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u8a2a\u6b50"],"author_key":["cchingent"],"author_name":["\u9673\u7a1a\u5bf0"],"category_key":["world"],"category_name":["\u570b\u969b"],"type_key":["review"],"type_name":["\u8a55\u8ad6"],"channel_key":[],"channel_name":[]},"slot":"\/21870649235\/tnl_a_p2","size":[[640,480],[640,360],[300,250],[1,1]],"mapping":[[[970,0],[[640,480],[640,360],[1,1]]],[[336,0],[[300,250],[1,1]]]],"name":"tnl_a_p2"}</script> </div> </div><ul> <li><b>傾銷問題仍是主要摩擦</b></li> </ul><p>由於訪問前，法方預告主軸聚焦於俄烏戰爭與電動車，因此法國總統馬克宏（Emmanuel Macron）與歐洲執行委員會（European Commission）主席馮德萊恩（Ursula von der Leyen）輪流表示立場，前者主張，法中貿易應更為健全、公平，他認為歐洲未來的發展，取決於是否與中國展開一個平衡的互動關係。</p><p>而馮德萊恩強調與中國的全球貿易競爭，必須從公平的起使點出發，面對當前不平衡的互動關係，她認為不能持續下去，應該儘早處理中國補貼與傾銷電動車、鋼鐵的問題。</p><ul> <li><b>對傾銷的認知差異與停戰共識</b></li> </ul><p>儘管馬克宏與馮德萊恩積極處理中國的傾銷策略，馮德萊恩甚至直言即使要做出艱難決定，也要捍衛歐洲利益，是故，馮德萊恩以堅定立場試圖讓習近平妥協。</p><p>然而，習近平認為，以比較優勢或全球市場需求的立場來觀察，中國根本不存在產能過剩的現象。顯然，雙邊在貿易對話上仍然沒有共識。</p><div class="js-advertise ad-content " style="min-height:326px"> <div class="tmgad tmgad-type-general tmgad-new"> <script type="application/json">{"type":"general","targeting":{"advertising":["0"],"cabinet":["628152"],"page_key":["article"],"page_name":["article"],"tag_key":["26","30","83","218","605","606","612","633","1114","1341","1385","1982","2386","2879","5365","8040","8205","9034","9172","22338","33718","71649","71932","73585","105750","114437","132039","193405","222771","244461","251251","287966","335948"],"tag_name":["\u4e2d\u570b","\u53f0\u7063","\u7f8e\u570b","\u96fb\u52d5\u8eca","\u5fb7\u570b","\u6cd5\u570b","\u5169\u5cb8","\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af","\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73","\u4e2d\u5171","\u50be\u92b7","\u95dc\u7a05","\u62dc\u767b","\u6b50\u76df","\u585e\u723e\u7dad\u4e9e","\u5308\u7259\u5229","\u4ee5\u5df4\u885d\u7a81","\u6b66\u5951\u5947","\u6771\u6b50","\u5ddd\u666e","\u99ae\u5fb7\u840a\u6069","\u53cd\u50be\u92b7","Viktor Orban","\u7522\u80fd\u904e\u5269","\u6b50\u6d32\u7d71\u5408","\u5967\u73ed","\u99ac\u514b\u5b8f","\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u722d","\u812b\u9264","\u856d\u8332","\u6230\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b","Aleksandar Vucic","\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u8a2a\u6b50"],"author_key":["cchingent"],"author_name":["\u9673\u7a1a\u5bf0"],"category_key":["world"],"category_name":["\u570b\u969b"],"type_key":["review"],"type_name":["\u8a55\u8ad6"],"channel_key":[],"channel_name":[]},"slot":"\/21870649235\/tnl_a_p6_special","size":[[640,480],[640,360],[320,480],[300,250],[1,1]],"mapping":[[[970,0],[[640,480],[640,360],[1,1]]],[[336,0],[[320,480],[300,250],[1,1]]]],"name":"tnl_a_p6_special"}</script> </div> </div><p>不過，習近平在全球衝突議題上的應答，讓馬克宏感到放心，例如北京不會向莫斯科提供武器，而面對即將來臨的巴黎奧運，兩人共同主張全球應在賽期間停戰，維持長久以來的奧運期間全球停火傳統。</p> </section> <div class="article-mask-box js-article-mask-box"> <div class="article-mask"> <div class="article-mask-content-box"> <div class="article-mask-content"> <h6 class="title">多元觀點等你解鎖</h6> <div class="description"> 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習近平訪歐企圖分化失敗，他忘了歐盟「戰略自主」也包含對中國自主 - TNL The News Lens 關鍵評論網