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No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ." /> <meta name="DC.AccessRights" content="restricted" /> <meta name="DC.Description" content="Background Myopia is a pervasive global public health concern, particularly among the younger population. However, the escalating prevalence of myopia remains uncertain. Hence, our research aims to ascertain the global and regional prevalence of myopia, along with its occurrence within specific demographic groups. Methods An exhaustive literature search was performed on several databases covering the period from their inception to 27 June 2023. The global prevalence of myopia was determined by employing pooled estimates with a 95% CI, and further analysis was conducted to assess variations in prevalence estimates across different subgroups. Additionally, a time series model was utilised to forecast and fit accurately the future prevalence of myopia for the next three decades. Results This study encompasses a comprehensive analysis of 276 studies, involving a total of 5 410 945 participants from 50 countries across all six continents. The findings revealed a gradual increase in pooled prevalence of myopia, ranging from 24.32% (95% CI 15.23% to 33.40%) to 35.81% (95% CI 31.70% to 39.91%), observed from 1990 to 2023, and projections indicate that this prevalence is expected to reach 36.59% in 2040 and 39.80% in 2050. Notably, individuals residing in East Asia (35.22%) or in urban areas (28.55%), female gender (33.57%), adolescents (47.00%), and high school students (45.71%) exhibit a higher proportion of myopia prevalence. Conclusion The global prevalence of childhood myopia is substantial, affecting approximately one-third of children and adolescents, with notable variations in prevalence across different demographic groups. It is anticipated that the global incidence of myopia will exceed 740 million cases by 2050. All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information. All the data included in our study are from published studies." /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Jinghong Liang" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Yingqi Pu" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Jiaqi Chen" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Meiling Liu" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Bowen Ouyang" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Zhengge Jin" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Wenxin Ge" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Zhuowen Wu" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Xiuzhi Yang" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Chunsong Qin" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Cong Wang" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Shan Huang" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Nan Jiang" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Lixin Hu" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Yushan Zhang" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Zhaohuan Gui" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Xueya Pu" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Shaoyi Huang" /> <meta name="DC.Contributor" content="Yajun Chen" /> <meta name="article:published_time" content="2024-08-14" /> <meta name="article:section" content="Epidemiology" /> <meta name="citation_title" content="Global prevalence, trend and projection of myopia in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2050: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis" /> <meta name="citation_abstract" lang="en" content="<h3>Background</h3> <p>Myopia is a pervasive global public health concern, particularly among the younger population. However, the escalating prevalence of myopia remains uncertain. Hence, our research aims to ascertain the global and regional prevalence of myopia, along with its occurrence within specific demographic groups.</p><h3>Methods</h3> <p>An exhaustive literature search was performed on several databases covering the period from their inception to 27 June 2023. The global prevalence of myopia was determined by employing pooled estimates with a 95% CI, and further analysis was conducted to assess variations in prevalence estimates across different subgroups. Additionally, a time series model was utilised to forecast and fit accurately the future prevalence of myopia for the next three decades.</p><h3>Results</h3> <p>This study encompasses a comprehensive analysis of 276 studies, involving a total of 5 410 945 participants from 50 countries across all six continents. The findings revealed a gradual increase in pooled prevalence of myopia, ranging from 24.32% (95% CI 15.23% to 33.40%) to 35.81% (95% CI 31.70% to 39.91%), observed from 1990 to 2023, and projections indicate that this prevalence is expected to reach 36.59% in 2040 and 39.80% in 2050. Notably, individuals residing in East Asia (35.22%) or in urban areas (28.55%), female gender (33.57%), adolescents (47.00%), and high school students (45.71%) exhibit a higher proportion of myopia prevalence.</p><h3>Conclusion</h3> <p>The global prevalence of childhood myopia is substantial, affecting approximately one-third of children and adolescents, with notable variations in prevalence across different demographic groups. It is anticipated that the global incidence of myopia will exceed 740 million cases by 2050.</p>" /> <meta name="citation_journal_title" content="British Journal of Ophthalmology" /> <meta name="citation_publisher" content="BMJ Publishing Group Ltd" /> <meta name="citation_publication_date" content="2024/08/14" /> <meta name="citation_mjid" content="bjophthalmol;bjo-2024-325427v1" /> <meta name="citation_id" content="bjo-2024-325427v1" /> <meta name="citation_public_url" content="https://bjo.bmj.com/content/early/2024/08/14/bjo-2024-325427" /> <meta name="citation_abstract_html_url" content="https://bjo.bmj.com/content/early/2024/08/14/bjo-2024-325427.abstract" /> <meta name="citation_full_html_url" content="https://bjo.bmj.com/content/early/2024/08/14/bjo-2024-325427.full" /> <meta name="citation_pdf_url" content="https://bjo.bmj.com/content/bjophthalmol/early/2024/08/14/bjo-2024-325427.full.pdf" /> <meta name="citation_issn" content="0007-1161" /> <meta name="citation_issn" 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Ojaimi;citation_title=Visual acuity and the causes of visual loss in a population-based sample of 6-year-old Australian children.;citation_pages=1275-1282;citation_volume=112;citation_year=2005;citation_issue=7;citation_pmid=15921756;citation_doi=10.1016/j.ophtha.2005.01.052" /> <meta name="citation_reference" content="citation_journal_title=Ophthalmology;citation_author=G. Wen;citation_author=K. Tarczy-Hornoch;citation_author=R. McKean-Cowdin;citation_title=Prevalence of myopia, hyperopia, and astigmatism in non-Hispanic white and Asian children: multi-ethnic pediatric eye disease study;citation_pages=2109-16;citation_volume=120;citation_year=2013;citation_pmid=23953098;citation_doi=10.1016/j.ophtha.2013.06.039" /> <meta name="citation_reference" content="citation_title=Analysis on myopia status of secondary school students in Minhang District, Shanghai, China;citation_author=L. Pan;citation_pages=5-7;citation_volume=6;citation_year=2012" /> <meta name="twitter:title" content="Global prevalence, trend and projection of myopia in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2050: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis" /> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image" /> <meta name="twitter:image" content="https://bjo.bmj.com/sites/default/files/highwire/bjophthalmol/108/12.cover-source.jpg" /> <meta name="twitter:description" content="Background Myopia is a pervasive global public health concern, particularly among the younger population. However, the escalating prevalence of myopia remains uncertain. Hence, our research aims to ascertain the global and regional prevalence of myopia, along with its occurrence within specific demographic groups. Methods An exhaustive literature search was performed on several databases covering the period from their inception to 27 June 2023. The global prevalence of myopia was determined by employing pooled estimates with a 95% CI, and further analysis was conducted to assess variations in prevalence estimates across different subgroups. Additionally, a time series model was utilised to forecast and fit accurately the future prevalence of myopia for the next three decades. Results This study encompasses a comprehensive analysis of 276 studies, involving a total of 5 410 945 participants from 50 countries across all six continents. The findings revealed a gradual increase in pooled prevalence of myopia, ranging from 24.32% (95% CI 15.23% to 33.40%) to 35.81% (95% CI 31.70% to 39.91%), observed from 1990 to 2023, and projections indicate that this prevalence is expected to reach 36.59% in 2040 and 39.80% in 2050. Notably, individuals residing in East Asia (35.22%) or in urban areas (28.55%), female gender (33.57%), adolescents (47.00%), and high school students (45.71%) exhibit a higher proportion of myopia prevalence. Conclusion The global prevalence of childhood myopia is substantial, affecting approximately one-third of children and adolescents, with notable variations in prevalence across different demographic groups. It is anticipated that the global incidence of myopia will exceed 740 million cases by 2050. All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information. All the data included in our study are from published studies." /> <meta name="og-title" property="og:title" content="Global prevalence, trend and projection of myopia in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2050: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis" /> <meta name="og-url" property="og:url" content="https://bjo.bmj.com/content/early/2024/08/14/bjo-2024-325427" /> <meta name="og-site-name" property="og:site_name" content="British Journal of Ophthalmology" /> <meta name="og-description" property="og:description" content="Background Myopia is a pervasive global public health concern, particularly among the younger population. However, the escalating prevalence of myopia remains uncertain. Hence, our research aims to ascertain the global and regional prevalence of myopia, along with its occurrence within specific demographic groups. Methods An exhaustive literature search was performed on several databases covering the period from their inception to 27 June 2023. The global prevalence of myopia was determined by employing pooled estimates with a 95% CI, and further analysis was conducted to assess variations in prevalence estimates across different subgroups. Additionally, a time series model was utilised to forecast and fit accurately the future prevalence of myopia for the next three decades. Results This study encompasses a comprehensive analysis of 276 studies, involving a total of 5 410 945 participants from 50 countries across all six continents. The findings revealed a gradual increase in pooled prevalence of myopia, ranging from 24.32% (95% CI 15.23% to 33.40%) to 35.81% (95% CI 31.70% to 39.91%), observed from 1990 to 2023, and projections indicate that this prevalence is expected to reach 36.59% in 2040 and 39.80% in 2050. Notably, individuals residing in East Asia (35.22%) or in urban areas (28.55%), female gender (33.57%), adolescents (47.00%), and high school students (45.71%) exhibit a higher proportion of myopia prevalence. Conclusion The global prevalence of childhood myopia is substantial, affecting approximately one-third of children and adolescents, with notable variations in prevalence across different demographic groups. It is anticipated that the global incidence of myopia will exceed 740 million cases by 2050. All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information. 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</div> <div class="panel-separator"></div><div class="panel-pane pane-entity-field pane-node-field-highwire-article-cat article-category col-narrow-9 col-normal-10" > <div class="pane-content"> <div class="field field-name-field-highwire-article-cat field-type-text field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Epidemiology</div></div></div> </div> </div> <div class="panel-separator"></div><div class="panel-pane pane-highwire-article-citation col-mobile-10 col-narrow-10 col-normal-11 article-title" > <div class="pane-content"> <div class="highwire-article-citation highwire-citation-type-highwire-article node241905" data-node-nid="241905" id="node-241905--21442577647" data-pisa="bjophthalmol;bjo-2024-325427v1" data-pisa-master="bjophthalmol;bjo-2024-325427" data-apath="/bjophthalmol/early/2024/08/14/bjo-2024-325427.atom"><cite class="highwire-cite highwire-cite-highwire-article highwire-citation-bmjj-title clearfix"> <div class="highwire-cite-title">Global prevalence, trend and projection of myopia in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2050: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis</div> <span class="highwire-cite-access"><span class="highwire-citation-access highwire-citation-access-check" data-pisa-id="bjophthalmol;bjo-2024-325427" data-atom-uri="/bjophthalmol/early/2024/08/14/bjo-2024-325427.atom" data-request-view="full"></span></span> </cite> </div> </div> </div> <div class="panel-separator"></div><div class="panel-pane pane-highwire-panel-tabs-container col-narrow-12 clear" > <div class="pane-content"> <div data-panels-ajax-tab-preloaded="jnl_template_bmjj_tab_art" id="panels-ajax-tab-container-highwire_article_tabs" class="panels-ajax-tab-container"><div class="panels-ajax-tab-loading" style ="display:none"><img class="loading" src="https://bjo.bmj.com/sites/all/modules/contrib/panels_ajax_tab/images/loading.gif" alt="Loading" title="Loading" /></div><div class="panels-ajax-tab-wrap-jnl_template_bmjj_tab_art"><div 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id="xref-aff-1-4" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-1">1</a>, </li><li class="contributor" id="contrib-5"><span class="name">Bowen Ouyang</span><a id="xref-aff-2-1" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-2">2</a>, </li><li class="contributor" id="contrib-6"><span class="name">Zhengge Jin</span><a id="xref-aff-1-5" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-1">1</a>, </li><li class="contributor" id="contrib-7"><span class="name">Wenxin Ge</span><a id="xref-aff-1-6" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-1">1</a>, </li><li class="contributor" id="contrib-8"><span class="name">Zhuowen Wu</span><a id="xref-aff-1-7" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-1">1</a>, </li><li class="contributor" id="contrib-9"><span class="name">Xiuzhi Yang</span><a id="xref-aff-1-8" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-1">1</a>, </li><li class="contributor" id="contrib-10"><a href="http://orcid.org/0009-0006-6010-3572" class="bmjj-markup-orcid-logo" target="_blank">http://orcid.org/0009-0006-6010-3572</a><span class="name">Chunsong Qin</span><a id="xref-aff-3-1" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-3">3</a>, </li><li class="contributor" id="contrib-11"><span class="name">Cong Wang</span><a id="xref-aff-4-1" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-4">4</a>, </li><li class="contributor" id="contrib-12"><span class="name">Shan Huang</span><a id="xref-aff-1-9" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-1">1</a>, </li><li class="contributor" id="contrib-13"><span class="name">Nan Jiang</span><a id="xref-aff-1-10" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-1">1</a>, </li><li class="contributor" id="contrib-14"><span class="name">Lixin Hu</span><a id="xref-aff-1-11" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-1">1</a>, </li><li class="contributor" id="contrib-15"><span class="name">Yushan Zhang</span><a id="xref-aff-1-12" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-1">1</a>, </li><li class="contributor" id="contrib-16"><span class="name">Zhaohuan Gui</span><a id="xref-aff-5-1" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-5">5</a>, </li><li class="contributor" id="contrib-17"><span class="name">Xueya Pu</span><a id="xref-aff-1-13" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-1">1</a>, </li><li class="contributor" id="contrib-18"><span class="name">Shaoyi Huang</span><a id="xref-aff-1-14" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-1">1</a>, </li><li class="last" id="contrib-19"><a href="http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3132-2945" class="bmjj-markup-orcid-logo" target="_blank">http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3132-2945</a><span class="name">Yajun Chen</span><a id="xref-aff-1-15" class="xref-aff" href="#aff-1">1</a></li></ol></div><div xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" class="contributors"><ol class="contributor-list" id="contrib-group-2"></ol><ol class="affiliation-list"><li class="aff"><a id="aff-1" name="aff-1"></a><address> <sup>1</sup> <span class="institution">Department of Maternal and Child Health</span>, <span class="institution">School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University</span>, <span class="addr-line">Guangzhou</span>, China </address></li><li class="aff"><a id="aff-2" name="aff-2"></a><address> <sup>2</sup> <span class="institution">Hainan Eye Hospital and Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University</span>, <span class="addr-line">Haikou</span>, China </address></li><li class="aff"><a id="aff-3" name="aff-3"></a><address> <sup>3</sup> <span class="institution">Department of Occupational and Environmental Health</span>, <span class="institution">School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University</span>, <span class="addr-line">Guangzhou</span>, China </address></li><li class="aff"><a id="aff-4" name="aff-4"></a><address> <sup>4</sup> <span class="institution">Department of Radiology</span>, <span class="institution">Henan Provincial People’s Hospital</span>, <span class="addr-line">Zhengzhou</span>, China </address></li><li class="aff"><a id="aff-5" name="aff-5"></a><address> <sup>5</sup> <span class="institution">Guangzhou Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution and Health Risk Assessment, Guangdong Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center of Environmental and Health risk Assessment, Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University</span>, <span class="addr-line">Guangzhou</span>, China </address></li></ol><ol class="corresp-list"><li class="corresp" id="corresp-1"><span class="corresp-label">Correspondence to</span> Dr Yajun Chen; <span class="em-link"><span class="em-addr">chenyajun68{at}yeah.net</span></span> </li></ol></div></div></div> </div> </div> <div class="panel-separator"></div><div class="panel-pane pane-highwire-markup abstract-with-bc" > <div class="pane-content"> <div class="highwire-markup"><div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" id="content-block" xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><div class="article abstract-view "><span class="highwire-journal-article-marker-start"></span><div class="section abstract" id="abstract-1"><h2>Abstract</h2><div id="sec-1" class="subsection"><p id="p-1"><strong>Background</strong> Myopia is a pervasive global public health concern, particularly among the younger population. However, the escalating prevalence of myopia remains uncertain. Hence, our research aims to ascertain the global and regional prevalence of myopia, along with its occurrence within specific demographic groups.</p></div><div id="sec-2" class="subsection"><p id="p-2"><strong>Methods</strong> An exhaustive literature search was performed on several databases covering the period from their inception to 27 June 2023. The global prevalence of myopia was determined by employing pooled estimates with a 95% CI, and further analysis was conducted to assess variations in prevalence estimates across different subgroups. Additionally, a time series model was utilised to forecast and fit accurately the future prevalence of myopia for the next three decades.</p></div><div id="sec-3" class="subsection"><p id="p-3"><strong>Results</strong> This study encompasses a comprehensive analysis of 276 studies, involving a total of 5 410 945 participants from 50 countries across all six continents. The findings revealed a gradual increase in pooled prevalence of myopia, ranging from 24.32% (95% CI 15.23% to 33.40%) to 35.81% (95% CI 31.70% to 39.91%), observed from 1990 to 2023, and projections indicate that this prevalence is expected to reach 36.59% in 2040 and 39.80% in 2050. Notably, individuals residing in East Asia (35.22%) or in urban areas (28.55%), female gender (33.57%), adolescents (47.00%), and high school students (45.71%) exhibit a higher proportion of myopia prevalence.</p></div><div id="sec-4" class="subsection"><p id="p-4"><strong>Conclusion</strong> The global prevalence of childhood myopia is substantial, affecting approximately one-third of children and adolescents, with notable variations in prevalence across different demographic groups. It is anticipated that the global incidence of myopia will exceed 740 million cases by 2050.</p></div></div><ul class="kwd-group"><li class="kwd">Child health (paediatrics)</li><li class="kwd">Epidemiology</li><li class="kwd">Eye (Globe)</li><li class="kwd">Public health</li><li class="kwd">Vision</li></ul><div class="section data-availability" id="sec-23"><h2 class="">Data availability statement</h2><p id="p-57">All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information. 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YQP: literature search, screening, data curation, visualisation, data extraction, writing - original draft, writing - review and editing. JQC: literature search, screening, data curation, data extraction, writing - review and editing. MLL: screening, data extraction, software, visualisation. BWO: methodology, writing - review and editing. ZGJ: screening, data extraction, resources. WXG: screening, data extraction, software. ZWW: screening, data extraction, resources. XZY: screening, data extraction, software. CSQ: screening, data extraction, resources. CW: methodology, writing - review and editing. SH: resources, writing - review and editing. NJ: software, writing - review and editing. LXH: resources, writing - review and editing. YSZ: software, writing - review and editing. ZHG: resources, writing - review and editing. XYP: software, writing - review and editing. SYH: resources, writing - review and editing. YJC: conceptualisation, funding acquisition, project administration, resources, supervision, validation, writing - review and editing.YJC is the guarantor.</p></li><li class="fn-other" id="fn-10"><p id="p-53"><span class="fn-label">Funding</span> The work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82273650).</p></li><li class="fn-conflict" id="fn-11"><p id="p-54"><span class="fn-label">Competing interests</span> None declared.</p></li><li class="fn-other" id="fn-12"><p id="p-55"><span class="fn-label">Provenance and peer review</span> Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.</p></li><li class="fn-other" id="fn-13"><p id="p-56"><span class="fn-label">Supplemental material</span> This content has been supplied by the author(s). It has not been vetted by BMJ Publishing Group Limited (BMJ) and may not have been peer-reviewed. Any opinions or recommendations discussed are solely those of the author(s) and are not endorsed by BMJ. 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