Monthly to decadal prediction

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class="draggable-advert forecastLeader" id="forecastLeader"></div> </div> <div class="hero"> <img src="/web/20200301204343im_/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/gallery/metofficegovuk/hero-images/science/ensemble-perturbations.png/ensemble-perturbations.png/metofficegovuk%3AheroMedium" srcset="/web/20200301204343im_/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/gallery/metofficegovuk/hero-images/science/ensemble-perturbations.png/ensemble-perturbations.png/metofficegovuk%3AheroXXLarge 1920w, /web/20200301204343im_/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/gallery/metofficegovuk/hero-images/science/ensemble-perturbations.png/ensemble-perturbations.png/metofficegovuk%3AheroXLarge 1600w, /web/20200301204343im_/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/gallery/metofficegovuk/hero-images/science/ensemble-perturbations.png/ensemble-perturbations.png/metofficegovuk%3AheroLarge 1366w, /web/20200301204343im_/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/gallery/metofficegovuk/hero-images/science/ensemble-perturbations.png/ensemble-perturbations.png/metofficegovuk%3AheroMedium 1024w, /web/20200301204343im_/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/gallery/metofficegovuk/hero-images/science/ensemble-perturbations.png/ensemble-perturbations.png/metofficegovuk%3AheroSmall 768w, /web/20200301204343im_/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/gallery/metofficegovuk/hero-images/science/ensemble-perturbations.png/ensemble-perturbations.png/metofficegovuk%3AheroXSmall 640w" title="Ensemble perturbations" alt="Ensemble perturbations" sizes="100vw"/> </div> <div class="wrap-3-col"> <div class="wrap-3-left"> <div class="advert-container"> <div class="draggable-advert skyLeft" id="skyLeft"></div> </div> </div> <div class="wrap-3-mid"> <div class="content-container"> <article class="has-edit-button content"> <div class="article-content"> <h1 class="article-heading">Monthly to decadal prediction</h1> <div class="share-line"><hr></div> <div class="row content-top"> <div class="col"> <p class="learn-article-tagline" data-swiftype-name="tagline" data-swiftype-type="text">Research and development of skilful ensemble forecasts on monthly to decadal timescales, for adaptation to climate variability and change.</p> <div data-swiftype-name="body" data-swiftype-type="text"> <div class="article-body"><p>This area covers research into climate variability and predictability; development of operational ensemble-prediction systems, derived applications and products for monthly to decadal timescales. Our decadal prediction system is the first in the world and our long-range predictions are currently among the most skilful. The forecasts and applications have a variety of uses throughout the world.</p> <div style="height:0; overflow:hidden; padding-bottom:56.25%; padding-top:30px; position:relative" class="youtube-embed-wrapper"><iframe allowfullscreen="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20200301204343if_/https://www.youtube.com/embed/QwDb6a7fE7Q" width="640" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%" frameborder="0" height="360"></iframe></div> <p>In this video, Adam Scaife (Head of Seasonal to Decadal Forecasting) explains how the Met Office forecasts from months to years ahead.</p></div> <div class="article-body"></div> </div> </div> <div class="mpu-col"> <div class="advert-container"> <div class="draggable-advert mpuOnly" id="mpuOnly"></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </article> <section class="learn-articles-block preview-block no-print" aria-labelledby="child-articles-heading"> <h2 id="child-articles-heading">Featured</h2> <ul class="items"> <li class="preview-block-component"> <a href="/web/20200301204343/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range" class="item"> <div class="image preview-block-image-278ed072-673b-4538-9b4e-8f2300b89162"></div> <h3 class="title title-row-1">Long-range predictions</h3> <div class="read-more-text"> <span class="icon" data-type="preview-block" data-value="landing"></span><span>Explore</span> </div> </a> </li> <li class="preview-block-component"> <a href="/web/20200301204343/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/operational-systems" class="item"> <div class="image preview-block-image-ad085ba9-347c-4e66-83e8-747c5ceed097"></div> <h3 class="title title-row-1">Monthly to decadal operational systems</h3> <div class="read-more-text"> <span class="icon" data-type="preview-block" data-value="article"></span><span>Read</span> </div> </a> </li> <li class="preview-block-component"> <a 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Monthly to decadal prediction - Met Office