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The Australian Financial Review
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But Goldman Sachs says that with a few tweaks, it can also improve returns for ASX investors. </p></header><div class="_47207bf25e6443e48904"><section class="_7302278d284fb75d742b"><div class="_4d22830be8e035459d36" data-testid="ArticleTimestamp"><time data-testid="ArticleTimestamp-time">Nov 27, 2024 – 11.43am</time></div><div class="_2a6dc840ff6bc204ff53" data-testid="ArticleTools"><div class="_9f146e4c46884f388d0e"><button aria-describedby="articleToolsLoginTooltip" class="_13dba38c2689588db954 _7cd6d3a619318b4274cf" data-click-outside-ignore="true" data-testid="SaveArticle-button" type="button"><span class="_82522fbabfe2be1d6f63"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" class="dd6db77aa2c85e94be85" focusable="false" height="1em" aria-hidden="true" width="1em"><path stroke="#111" stroke-width="1.2" d="M6.607 5c0-.221.179-.4.4-.4H17c.22 0 .4.18.4.4v13.077a.4.4 0 0 1-.63.328l-3.851-2.702a1.6 1.6 0 0 0-1.838 0l-3.85 2.701a.4.4 0 0 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The ASX 200 tech index is up 54 per cent for the year to date, well ahead of the 24 per cent return for the Nasdaq 100.</p><div class="_398b6c5e39701f15a1a2">Loading...<figure></figure><figure></figure><figure></figure><figure></figure></div><div></div></div><div class="_2e1de52e69e1d969aea3"><div class="a368146c81ee0410b134"><span class="_1a6f5d6fad2874362309" data-testid="AuthorCard"><span><strong><a class="d1dba0c3091a3c30ebd6" data-testid="AuthorURL" href="/by/james-thomson-1446yx">James Thomson</a></strong> is senior Chanticleer columnist based in Melbourne. He was the Companies editor and editor of BRW Magazine.</span><span class="ebf04f7a6858148cabbd _449cf37f9ae646047903" data-testid="Author-Social"><span> <!-- -->Connect with <!-- -->James<!-- --> on <a class="_86e1121a0a44d2d45f97" href="//twitter.com/@mrjthomson?lang=en" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.</span><span> <!-- -->Email <!-- -->James<!-- --> at <a class="c5a5b7d2f686623f7687" href="mailto:j.thomson@afr.com">j.thomson@afr.com</a></span></span></span></div></div><div class="a3b28a4f67a674b57863" data-testid="ArticleFooter"><div class="_9e5858bb5e9aa47354b4"><div class="_9f146e4c46884f388d0e"><button aria-describedby="articleFooterLoginTooltip" class="_13dba38c2689588db954 _7cd6d3a619318b4274cf" data-click-outside-ignore="true" data-testid="SaveArticle-button" type="button"><span class="_82522fbabfe2be1d6f63"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" class="dd6db77aa2c85e94be85" focusable="false" height="1em" 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But Goldman Sachs says that with a few tweaks, it can also improve returns for ASX investors. ","allowComments":false,"body":"\u003Cp\u003EThe great narrative of global markets this year has been the rise and rise (and rise) of the world’s biggest tech stocks, led by the $US3.5 trillion ($5.4 trillion) monster Nvidia.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut Australia has a nice tech story to tell, too. The ASX 200 tech index is up 54 per cent for the year to date, well ahead of the 24 per cent return for the Nasdaq 100.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"40fd9357ee8d776a6d3f209a2b239251751acec3\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cp\u003EOur well-established tech stars – Life360 (up 207 per cent), TechnologyOne (up 100 per cent) and WiseTech (still up 65 per cent) – have led the way locally. But as Goldman Sachs’ local strategist, Matthew Ross, says, growth investing is about finding fresh ideas with fresh momentum. The question is: how to do it?\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe local sector seems to have answered that question for itself: Ross notes that mentions of the tech performance metric called the Rule of 40 in company presentations have jumped from two in 2020 to 16 this year.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe Rule of 40, invented by tech investor Brad Feld, holds that a quality tech company should be able to balance growth and profitability such that sales growth and its EBITDA margin add up to 40 or more. Xero chief executive Sukhinder Singh Cassidy is \u003Cx-placeholder id=\"4e2302e7adadbec41b994bf276a8a7e2dd45c29d\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E; it’s become a simple signal of her intention to move away from a growth-at-all-costs strategy towards one that delivers sustainable profit growth.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ERoss has run the numbers on the ASX 300 for the past 20 years; about 40 stocks on average qualified under the rule, although the number dipped a bit in the years around the global financial crisis. At present, three sectors dominate the list: tech, consumer and healthcare.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe headline news is that the rule does appear to be a good tool for stock picking on the ASX: Goldman’s Rule of 40 (R40) stocks produced an average annual return of 11.5 per cent over the past two decades, which is 2.8 per cent above the average stock in its sample over the same period. Stocks with higher EBITDA margins did better than stocks with higher revenue growth (15.8 per cent versus 11 per cent), although most of the outperformance came after the GFC, with the strategy outperforming for 11 of the past 14 years.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EFive tweaks for investors\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut there are some notable wrinkles here. First, it’s hard to become an R40 stock, and hard to stay one: stocks that met the R40 in one year had only a 48 per cent chance of doing it the following year, and less than a 10 per cent chance of maintaining this status for five years. Just seven stocks have achieved R40 status for seven consecutive years or more: Car Group, Next DC, REA Group, WiseTech Global, Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals, Infomedia and Pro Medicus.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ENo one would suggest the Rule of 40 is perfect, and over the years there have been many variations on the theme, including substituting EBITDA margin for free cashflow growth. But Ross’ analysis suggests five tweaks local investors should consider:\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Col\u003E\u003Cli\u003ELife cycle matters. Ross finds “investors typically underestimated how well smaller growth firms would do, but then seemed to over-extrapolate this early success”. It’s no surprise that the law of large numbers means it’s harder to maintain high revenue growth as a company gets bigger, and Ross’ data shows stocks with revenue under $250 million delivered much higher shareholder returns. But interestingly, he also finds investors tend to penalise firms that pay a dividend, unless their margins are high and their businesses relatively mature.\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\u003Cli\u003EInvesting for growth. The data shows companies that spend on product and brand (defined by Ross as selling, general and administrative expenses) tend to deliver much better returns than those R40 companies with high capital expenditure or frequent acquisitions. For every dollar spent on product or sales, R40 stocks typically generate a return on investment of 1.7 times, compared with ROI of 0.9 times for the average stock.\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\u003Cli\u003EFunding of growth. No surprises here, but R40 companies with a net cash position, and which could fund their growth from free cashflow, tended to outperform those that raised equity.\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\u003Cli\u003EOwnership matters. As we’ve learnt in recent months from WiseTech, \u003Cx-placeholder id=\"31808f6d280e0e0fb5a0578ebebfbf547e2e8cf9\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E But Goldman’s data is conclusive: R40 companies with a free float below 50 per cent “delivered the strongest performance of just about any factor we tracked” at 21.4 per cent per annum.\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\u003Cli\u003EMomentum counts. As we often see on the ASX, stocks with momentum tend to keep running; going long Rule of 40 stocks with six months of momentum and shorting those with the weakest returns would have delivered annualised alpha of close to 20 per cent. Or as Ross says: “Rule of 40 stocks that are cheap, are more often than not cheap for a reason.”\u003C\u002Fli\u003E\u003C\u002Fol\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESo where do investors hunt for the top Rule of 40 stars? Using the R40 criteria and adding additional factors suggested by his analysis – including high EBITDA margins, sales below $250 million, low capex, net cash, positive free cash flow and price momentum – Ross says 15 stocks screen as companies to watch: Tuas, Netwealth, Pro Medicus, Polynovo, Neuren Pharmaceuticals, TechnologyOne, Life360, WiseTech, DroneShield, REA Group, Nuix, Xero, Telix Pharmaceuticals, ResMed and Aristocrat Leisure.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThere are some expensive names in that group that have run hard for most of the year. But as Ross’ numbers show, these R40 stocks are rare birds worth looking at.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"80e2de9fa5711f9b59dca34ff35e875075f07367\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"458502645fee907d53eac4bbed228a7587f93d72\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E","bodyPlaceholders":{"31808f6d280e0e0fb5a0578ebebfbf547e2e8cf9":{"data":{"id":"p5kl63","newTab":false,"noFollow":false,"text":"a strong founder is a blessing until it isn’t."},"type":"linkArticle"},"40fd9357ee8d776a6d3f209a2b239251751acec3":{"data":{"altText":"r the technology sector, a trend that is captured by technology themed ETFs.","aspect":1.5,"autoCrop":false,"caption":"Tech stars on the ASX are embracing the Rule of 40 more frequently. 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