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data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="dark" data-module-background="deep-blue" data-module-category="AnchoredHero" class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__SfYQE"><style></style><div data-component="mdc-c-background-image" class="mdc-c-bg-image___GJdv1_2734c4f background-image-article-default ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__parallax-container__fZ7Iq"></div><div class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__gradient__Uu21n"></div><div class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__wrapper-content__XOe9C"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-1 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-10"><div><h1 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-2 mck-u-animation-slide-down ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__heading__bv6rL"><div>Refinery transactions: A window of opportunity?</div></h1></div><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10 mck-u-animation-blur-in-800 ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__description__sjoe9"><div><time datetime="2023-08-09T00:00:00Z">August 9, 2023</time> | Article</div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-9"><span> </span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/tim-fitzgibbon" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_2734c4f mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Tim Fitzgibbon</span></a> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Patrick Green </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Anantharaman Shankar<span> </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Luka Vukomanovic</span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">There is a dichotomy in refinery ownership, with some players reducing their refining portfolios while others see the significant value potential in both the short- and long-term.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"> <div class="mck-o-sidebar mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Findustries%2Foil%20and%20gas%2Four%20insights%2Frefinery%20transactions%20a%20window%20of%20opportunity%2Frefinery-transactions-a-window-of-opportunity.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="refinery-transactions-a-window-of-opportunity" data-layer-report-name="refinery-transactions-a-window-of-opportunity>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (5 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>In today’s rapidly changing energy landscape,</strong> refinery transactions have become a focal point of investment discussions. Despite uncertainties surrounding the long-term future of refineries in a transitioning world, many refineries continue to be acquired but at lower values than in the past. On a stage set for change, what is the rationale for investing in the refining sector now?</p> <p>For a few bold investors, refineries can still be a strategic investment generating short-term profits while providing opportunities for securing green assets in the long term. With the world still relying heavily on crude oil refining for fuel supplies, the next decade will likely see continued profits in this sector. And when the push for green fuels outweighs the need for refined oil products, these refineries could have a second life as green manufacturing facilities such as renewable diesel or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) facilities.</p> <p>In this article, we explore trends in refinery transactions, the short- and long-term opportunities for investors, and what to keep in mind when deciding whether to invest.</p> <h2>Transaction volumes recover post-pandemic but at lower values</h2> <p>While the number of global refinery transactions took a dip in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is still significant interest in these assets. In 2021 and 2022, the average transaction rate of refinery assets—as measured by both the number of refineries and capacity—showed strong recovery, with 25 refineries changing ownership, representing 2.5 million barrels per day of capacity (Exhibit 1). This is in line with the pre-pandemic trend, indicating a renewed wave of refinery transactions.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/refinery%20transactions%20a%20window%20of%20opportunity/svgz-refinery-transactions-ex1-v4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="The number of refinery transactions has recovered to pre-pandemic levels." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/refinery%20transactions%20a%20window%20of%20opportunity/svgz-refinery-transactions-ex1-v4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Despite revived interest in these assets, transaction values have seen a global decline. While the average transaction value between 2016 and 2019 was $12,000 per barrel, the average between 2021 and 2022 was $5,000 per barrel, a decrease of more than 50 percent (Exhibit 2).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/refinery%20transactions%20a%20window%20of%20opportunity/svgz-refinery-transactions-ex2-v4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Transaction values have declined by 50 percent in the past few years." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/refinery%20transactions%20a%20window%20of%20opportunity/svgz-refinery-transactions-ex2-v4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Transaction values are declining, and they are also converging across geographies. A transaction gap of approximately $8,000 per barrel was observed between the Middle East/Asia and Europe/North America between 2016 and 2019, yet both regions held similar values of approximately $4,000 per barrel in 2021 and 2022. This suggests that a global consensus is emerging in the market outlook for refineries.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-12"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Would you like to learn more about our <a href="/industries/oil-and-gas/how-we-help-clients">Oil & Gas Practice</a>?</div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/oil-and-gas/how-we-help-clients/energy-solutions/overview" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Visit our Energy Solutions page</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <h2>What is driving the global decline in transaction values?</h2> <p>The worldwide view on the outlook for this sector is increasingly bearish. Energy transition trends, including higher electric vehicle adoption in many markets and higher compliance costs from environmental regulations, are reducing growth opportunities for the sector. The heightened long-term uncertainty in the future of refining is creating more sellers than buyers and thus a decline in transaction values across geographies. Although fuel demand is still expected to grow in the short- to medium-term, global refining overcapacity has reduced the need for investment in new refineries.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="3f5418e2-292b-4d74-b91c-543f05af229b"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="3f5418e2-292b-4d74-b91c-543f05af229b" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Cherry Ding, Tim Fitzgibbon, Hari Govindahari, and Brian Roth, “<a href="/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/the-near-term-outlook-for-refining-where-to-now">The near-term outlook for refining: Where to now?</a>” McKinsey, May 22, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <p>This market is leading many refiners to reassess their refining portfolios, and in some cases, reduce them through shutdowns and divestitures. The global majors (BP, ExxonMobil, Shell) have been particularly active in shedding smaller refineries, even as they continue to invest in some of their larger hub-market assets.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="c1842cea-bd9c-4372-8862-88ef658f245d"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">2</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="c1842cea-bd9c-4372-8862-88ef658f245d" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“bp to see interest in bp-Husky Toledo refinery to Cenovus,” bp, August 8, 2022; “ExxonMobil to see Billings refinery to Par Pacific Holdings,” ExxonMobil, October 20, 2022; “Shell completes sale of Washington Puget Sound refinery to HollyFrontier,” Cision PR Newswire, November 1, 2021.</span></span></span></a></span> This is in line with a strategy focused on consolidating downstream into a core set of very efficient assets with high option value as a platform to integrate into chemicals, renewable fuels, or other emerging energy processing areas. Smaller, more isolated assets don’t map well to this strategy but currently remain profitable, accounting for many of the assets that are being sold.</p> <p>The fall in asset values can be attributed to this structural shift in strategy by many players that are suddenly putting assets on the market at the same time. This alone helps to explain falling transaction values. Adding to this is the generally lower long-term market outlook for the industry shared by most industry players, despite recent high profitability.</p> <h2>Refineries present an opportunity for some acquirers</h2> <p>The market is seeing conflicting actions, with several players shedding assets while others continue to find refining an attractive market to enter. Within this dichotomy, current market conditions present an opportunity for buyers who have a bold belief in the potential for value creation. The decline in transaction values and the short-term outlook for high margins provide an opportunity for investors to capture both short-term benefits and long-term opportunities.</p> <p>Over the next few years, the refinery sector is likely to hold sizeable profit potential. Even though new refineries are not being built—and a large number of closures were seen following the COVID-19 pandemic—the demand for crude oil products is still high. The US Gulf Coast cracking margins are projected to average $19 per barrel of crude oil (bbl) between 2022 and 2025 versus a historical average of $7 per bbl from 2015 to 2019.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="14ef80e0-51cf-4249-b088-dc0e1e00a3b5"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">3</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="14ef80e0-51cf-4249-b088-dc0e1e00a3b5" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Ding, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span> With margins remaining inflated, refining could offer a valuable short-term investment opportunity.</p> <p>In the longer term, as the demand for refined oil products decreases globally, some refineries could have a second life as renewable fuel plants, such as biorefineries to produce biofuels.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="69c4dd66-1b11-49c8-b546-b67abe53afe6"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">4</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="69c4dd66-1b11-49c8-b546-b67abe53afe6" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Tim Fitzgibbon, Khush Nariman, and Brian Roth, “<a href="/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/converting-refineries-to-renewable-fuels-no-simple-switch">Converting refineries to renewable fuels: No simple switch</a>,” McKinsey, June 21, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span> Acquiring these assets now provides a low-cost option to participate in renewable fuel production or other green manufacturing opportunities in the future.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-4 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-5 Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__image___2Gc4"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><img alt="Oil refinery - stock photo" src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/converting%20refineries%20to%20renewable%20fuels%20no%20simple%20switch/thumb-gettyimages-988778726.jpg?cq=50&mh=145&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-7"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Converting refineries to renewable fuels: No simple switch</div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/converting-refineries-to-renewable-fuels-no-simple-switch" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Read the article</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <h2>Who are the likely buyers?</h2> <p>Some investors are not prepared to take on the long-term risk associated with refineries and are therefore willing to sell these assets at a relatively cheap price, even though a short-term market bump is expected.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="3cd23bf9-b0e6-4e65-ace0-aaf0b7ec0297"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">5</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="3cd23bf9-b0e6-4e65-ace0-aaf0b7ec0297" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Ding, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span> An investor who believes in their ability to extract value beyond normal operations—by making strategic investments and operational improvements, for example—could be well suited for this type of investment.</p> <p>Many different types of investors could benefit from such transactions, including—but not limited to—refiners looking to scale up, buyers who would like to expand internationally, and private equity players. Small- to medium-scale independent regional refiners who would like to take advantage of niche opportunities could be potential buyers, too, with the large profit opportunity and ability to improve operations across assets attracting such players.</p> <p>Buyers who are looking to expand internationally to secure access to crude placement could also benefit. These experienced buyers could potentially negotiate better rates with intermediary service providers, or even eliminate the cost of additional pipelines, terminals, and other market participants altogether. Acquiring product short-market assets would be a bet on product-demand growth in local markets served by these assets.</p> <p>This market is also attractive to private equity players who expect to accelerate the profit generation potential of assets and who can deploy capital along with strong management teams. Such buyers could also partner with existing small- or medium-sized operators to drive consolidation across similarly sized players.</p> <p>Overall, buyers with a strong skillset in improving asset performance, the ability to leverage financial market savvy behind physical assets, and expertise in converting refineries into other types of low-carbon facilities could continue to seek out investments at these low transaction valuations.</p> <h2>Factors to keep in mind when investing</h2> <p>An investor who is ready to seize this opportunity could keep the following factors in mind:</p> <ul> <li><em>Hold, expand, and transform as a base strategy.</em> Using a base strategy that encourages holding the asset could be beneficial if the market continues to support high margins in the short- and medium-term and could result in attractive returns. There is an opportunity to double down and create a portfolio of similar assets by taking advantage of low transaction values, further driving cost and margin synergies across the system.</li> <li><em>Seek out opportunities for a transformative operating model.</em> A well-executed transformation plan can unlock significant potential for improvement in the short term with minimal capital investment. By embracing an operating model that encompasses a portfolio of similar assets, resources can be shared in procurement, IT, HR, and technology across the assets. A well-executed transformation plan that embraces this type of operating model could deliver an additional $0.5 to $1 per barrel of crude oil within 12 to 18 months.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="f5f02aab-ce31-43df-a235-6b5505962f85"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">6</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="f5f02aab-ce31-43df-a235-6b5505962f85" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">McKinsey experience in downstream refining transformations.</span></span></span></a></span></li> <li><em>Mitigate possible remediation costs.</em> Assuming ownership of an asset may come with eventual shutdown or remediation costs. However, this is not necessarily a downside given the attractive conversion opportunities for refineries. SAF facilities, or other green manufacturing facilities, can be modeled from existing brownfield sites—such as refineries—which provide a significant advantage due to the existing infrastructure, permitting, and logistics features. These conversion options could mitigate the risk of shutting down, keeping refineries a viable investment opportunity.</li> </ul> <p>These considerations can help investors grasp the opportunity to earn good returns in the short term and be ahead of the curve in the green fuel transition, as low asset prices play in favor of bold buyers.</p> <hr/> <p>Investing in refineries now could enable buyers to capitalize on the rising demand for refined oil products in the short term and to convert refineries to produce renewable fuels ahead of the energy transition in the long term. The window of opportunity is narrowing, and bold investors can act now to reap the rewards.</p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong><a href="/our-people/tim-fitzgibbon">Tim Fitzgibbon</a></strong> is a senior expert and associate partner in McKinsey’s Houston office, where <strong>Anantharaman Shankar</strong> is a senior expert, and <strong>Luka Vukomanovic</strong> is a senior analyst. <strong>Patrick Green</strong> is a knowledge expert in the London office.</p></div></div></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-screen-only"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-5 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-9"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Explore a career with us</h5><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--align-center___ar3mu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/careers/search-jobs" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--secondary___Boipq_2734c4f mdc-c-button--size-large___jwpUy_2734c4f" aria-label="Search Openings" data-layer-event-prefix="CTA Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="careers" data-layer-subcategory="search" data-layer-text="Search Openings"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Search Openings</span></a></div></div></section></div></main></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="StandalonePromo" class="RelatedArticle_mck-c-article-related__GGA76 mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="related-articles"><div class="mdc-o-container__wrapper is-wrapped mdc-u-spaced-mobile"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Related Articles</h5><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-3 RelatedArticle_items-container__s2uD0"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg Card_card__diA2r Card_hover-effect__RGb9b"><div class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/converting-refineries-to-renewable-fuels-no-simple-switch" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-conve-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="Oil refinery - stock photo" class="picture-uniqueKey-conve-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/converting%20refineries%20to%20renewable%20fuels%20no%20simple%20switch/thumb-gettyimages-988778726.jpg?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Article</span><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/converting-refineries-to-renewable-fuels-no-simple-switch" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_2734c4f mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><div>Converting refineries to renewable fuels: No simple switch</div></a></h6></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg Card_card__diA2r Card_hover-effect__RGb9b"><div class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/the-near-term-outlook-for-refining-where-to-now" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-then-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="Aerial View of a Texas Oil Refinery and Fuel Storage Tanks - stock photo" class="picture-uniqueKey-then-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/the%20near%20term%20outlook%20for%20refining%20where%20to%20now/thumb-gettyimages-1085139540.jpg?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Article</span><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/the-near-term-outlook-for-refining-where-to-now" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_2734c4f mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><div>The near-term outlook for refining: Where to now?</div></a></h6></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg Card_card__diA2r Card_hover-effect__RGb9b"><div class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/refining-in-the-energy-transition-through-2040" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-refin-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="Products and Services for the Oil Refining and Petrochemical Industries - stock photo" class="picture-uniqueKey-refin-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/refining%20in%20the%20energy%20transition%20through%202040/thumb-gettyimages-1350375871.jpg?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Article</span><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/refining-in-the-energy-transition-through-2040" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_2734c4f mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><div>Refining in the energy transition through 2040</div></a></h6></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"locale":"en","dictionary":{},"sitecoreContext":{"route":{"name":"Refinery transactions A window of opportunity","displayName":"Refinery transactions A window of opportunity","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"a9f21fda-848a-4a37-a6b1-7a710ab708b3","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":1,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Refinery transactions: A window of opportunity?"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":"Refineries still hold significant value"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"There is a dichotomy in refinery ownership, with some players reducing their refining portfolios while others see the significant value potential in both the short- and long-term."}},"sEODescription":{"value":"Refineries holds significant value potential in both the short- and long-term."},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2023-08-09T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[audio 1]]\n[[DownloadsSidebar]]\n[[MostPopularArticles 5]]\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eIn today\u0026rsquo;s rapidly changing energy landscape,\u003c/strong\u003e refinery transactions have become a focal point of investment discussions. Despite uncertainties surrounding the long-term future of refineries in a transitioning world, many refineries continue to be acquired but at lower values than in the past. On a stage set for change, what is the rationale for investing in the refining sector now?\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eFor a few bold investors, refineries can still be a strategic investment generating short-term profits while providing opportunities for securing green assets in the long term. With the world still relying heavily on crude oil refining for fuel supplies, the next decade will likely see continued profits in this sector. And when the push for green fuels outweighs the need for refined oil products, these refineries could have a second life as green manufacturing facilities such as renewable diesel or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) facilities.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIn this article, we explore trends in refinery transactions, the short- and long-term opportunities for investors, and what to keep in mind when deciding whether to invest.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003ch2\u003eTransaction volumes recover post-pandemic but at lower values\u003c/h2\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eWhile the number of global refinery transactions took a dip in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is still significant interest in these assets. In 2021 and 2022, the average transaction rate of refinery assets\u0026mdash;as measured by both the number of refineries and capacity\u0026mdash;showed strong recovery, with 25 refineries changing ownership, representing 2.5 million barrels per day of capacity (Exhibit 1). This is in line with the pre-pandemic trend, indicating a renewed wave of refinery transactions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[Exhibit 1]]\n\n\u003cp\u003eDespite revived interest in these assets, transaction values have seen a global decline. While the average transaction value between 2016 and 2019 was $12,000 per barrel, the average between 2021 and 2022 was $5,000 per barrel, a decrease of more than 50 percent (Exhibit 2).\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[Exhibit 2]]\n\n\u003cp\u003eTransaction values are declining, and they are also converging across geographies. A transaction gap of approximately $8,000 per barrel was observed between the Middle East/Asia and Europe/North America between 2016 and 2019, yet both regions held similar values of approximately $4,000 per barrel in 2021 and 2022. This suggests that a global consensus is emerging in the market outlook for refineries.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[disruptor1up learnmore]]\n\n\u003ch2\u003eWhat is driving the global decline in transaction values?\u003c/h2\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe worldwide view on the outlook for this sector is increasingly bearish. Energy transition trends, including higher electric vehicle adoption in many markets and higher compliance costs from environmental regulations, are reducing growth opportunities for the sector. The heightened long-term uncertainty in the future of refining is creating more sellers than buyers and thus a decline in transaction values across geographies. Although fuel demand is still expected to grow in the short- to medium-term, global refining overcapacity has reduced the need for investment in new refineries.[[footnote 1]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThis market is leading many refiners to reassess their refining portfolios, and in some cases, reduce them through shutdowns and divestitures. The global majors (BP, ExxonMobil, Shell) have been particularly active in shedding smaller refineries, even as they continue to invest in some of their larger hub-market assets.[[footnote 2]] This is in line with a strategy focused on consolidating downstream into a core set of very efficient assets with high option value as a platform to integrate into chemicals, renewable fuels, or other emerging energy processing areas. Smaller, more isolated assets don\u0026rsquo;t map well to this strategy but currently remain profitable, accounting for many of the assets that are being sold.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe fall in asset values can be attributed to this structural shift in strategy by many players that are suddenly putting assets on the market at the same time. This alone helps to explain falling transaction values. Adding to this is the generally lower long-term market outlook for the industry shared by most industry players, despite recent high profitability.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003ch2\u003eRefineries present an opportunity for some acquirers\u003c/h2\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe market is seeing conflicting actions, with several players shedding assets while others continue to find refining an attractive market to enter. Within this dichotomy, current market conditions present an opportunity for buyers who have a bold belief in the potential for value creation. The decline in transaction values and the short-term outlook for high margins provide an opportunity for investors to capture both short-term benefits and long-term opportunities.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eOver the next few years, the refinery sector is likely to hold sizeable profit potential. Even though new refineries are not being built\u0026mdash;and a large number of closures were seen following the COVID-19 pandemic\u0026mdash;the demand for crude oil products is still high. The US Gulf Coast cracking margins are projected to average $19 per barrel of crude oil (bbl) between 2022 and 2025 versus a historical average of $7 per bbl from 2015 to 2019.[[footnote 3]] With margins remaining inflated, refining could offer a valuable short-term investment opportunity.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIn the longer term, as the demand for refined oil products decreases globally, some refineries could have a second life as renewable fuel plants, such as biorefineries to produce biofuels.[[footnote 4]] Acquiring these assets now provides a low-cost option to participate in renewable fuel production or other green manufacturing opportunities in the future.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[disruptor1up readnext]]\n\n\u003ch2\u003eWho are the likely buyers?\u003c/h2\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eSome investors are not prepared to take on the long-term risk associated with refineries and are therefore willing to sell these assets at a relatively cheap price, even though a short-term market bump is expected.[[footnote 5]] An investor who believes in their ability to extract value beyond normal operations\u0026mdash;by making strategic investments and operational improvements, for example\u0026mdash;could be well suited for this type of investment.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eMany different types of investors could benefit from such transactions, including\u0026mdash;but not limited to\u0026mdash;refiners looking to scale up, buyers who would like to expand internationally, and private equity players. Small- to medium-scale independent regional refiners who would like to take advantage of niche opportunities could be potential buyers, too, with the large profit opportunity and ability to improve operations across assets attracting such players.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eBuyers who are looking to expand internationally to secure access to crude placement could also benefit. These experienced buyers could potentially negotiate better rates with intermediary service providers, or even eliminate the cost of additional pipelines, terminals, and other market participants altogether. Acquiring product short-market assets would be a bet on product-demand growth in local markets served by these assets.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThis market is also attractive to private equity players who expect to accelerate the profit generation potential of assets and who can deploy capital along with strong management teams. Such buyers could also partner with existing small- or medium-sized operators to drive consolidation across similarly sized players.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eOverall, buyers with a strong skillset in improving asset performance, the ability to leverage financial market savvy behind physical assets, and expertise in converting refineries into other types of low-carbon facilities could continue to seek out investments at these low transaction valuations.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003ch2\u003eFactors to keep in mind when investing\u003c/h2\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eAn investor who is ready to seize this opportunity could keep the following factors in mind:\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eHold, expand, and transform as a base strategy.\u003c/em\u003e Using a base strategy that encourages holding the asset could be beneficial if the market continues to support high margins in the short- and medium-term and could result in attractive returns. There is an opportunity to double down and create a portfolio of similar assets by taking advantage of low transaction values, further driving cost and margin synergies across the system.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eSeek out opportunities for a transformative operating model.\u003c/em\u003e A well-executed transformation plan can unlock significant potential for improvement in the short term with minimal capital investment. By embracing an operating model that encompasses a portfolio of similar assets, resources can be shared in procurement, IT, HR, and technology across the assets. A well-executed transformation plan that embraces this type of operating model could deliver an additional $0.5 to $1 per barrel of crude oil within 12 to 18 months.[[footnote 6]]\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eMitigate possible remediation costs.\u003c/em\u003e Assuming ownership of an asset may come with eventual shutdown or remediation costs. However, this is not necessarily a downside given the attractive conversion opportunities for refineries. SAF facilities, or other green manufacturing facilities, can be modeled from existing brownfield sites\u0026mdash;such as refineries\u0026mdash;which provide a significant advantage due to the existing infrastructure, permitting, and logistics features. These conversion options could mitigate the risk of shutting down, keeping refineries a viable investment opportunity.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThese considerations can help investors grasp the opportunity to earn good returns in the short term and be ahead of the curve in the green fuel transition, as low asset prices play in favor of bold buyers.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eInvesting in refineries now could enable buyers to capitalize on the rising demand for refined oil products in the short term and to convert refineries to produce renewable fuels ahead of the energy transition in the long term. The window of opportunity is narrowing, and bold investors can act now to reap the rewards.\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"mobileReady":{"boolValue":true},"forClientsOnly":{"boolValue":false},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2023-08-09T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eCherry Ding, Tim Fitzgibbon, Hari Govindahari, and Brian Roth, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/the-near-term-outlook-for-refining-where-to-now\"\u003eThe near-term outlook for refining: Where to now?\u003c/a\u003e\u0026rdquo; McKinsey, May 22, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;bp to see interest in bp-Husky Toledo refinery to Cenovus,\u0026rdquo; bp, August 8, 2022; \u0026ldquo;ExxonMobil to see Billings refinery to Par Pacific Holdings,\u0026rdquo; ExxonMobil, October 20, 2022; \u0026ldquo;Shell completes sale of Washington Puget Sound refinery to HollyFrontier,\u0026rdquo; Cision PR Newswire, November 1, 2021.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eDing, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eTim Fitzgibbon, Khush Nariman, and Brian Roth, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/converting-refineries-to-renewable-fuels-no-simple-switch\"\u003eConverting refineries to renewable fuels: No simple switch\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; McKinsey, June 21, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eDing, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMcKinsey experience in downstream refining transformations.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[{"displayName":"Oil \u0026 Gas"}]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/tim-fitzgibbon\"\u003eTim Fitzgibbon\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a senior expert and associate partner in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Houston office, where \u003cstrong\u003eAnantharaman Shankar\u003c/strong\u003e is a senior expert, and \u003cstrong\u003eLuka Vukomanovic\u003c/strong\u003e is a senior analyst. \u003cstrong\u003ePatrick Green\u003c/strong\u003e is a knowledge expert in the London office.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"33CA40C624124E278DB166C117993D7E","name":"Tim Fitzgibbon","authorTitle":{"value":"Tim Fitzgibbon"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/tim fitzgibbon/tim fitzgibbon_std_img.jpg","alt":""},"emailLinks":{"value":"Tim_Fitzgibbon@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":"https://www.linkedin.com/pub/timothy-fitzgibbon/14/a5b/138"},"description":{"value":"Serves petroleum clients around the world, drawing on deep specialist expertise on topics related to refining strategy and petroleum market economics; leads research on petroleum market outlooks"},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"Houston","displayName":"Houston"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Senior Expert"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"tim fitzgibbon","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/tim fitzgibbon/tim fitzgibbon_thumbnail_img.jpg"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/tim-fitzgibbon"}}]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"B47E0B691AEC46FE876CE20B88DA94E5","name":"Patrick Green","authorTitle":{"value":"Patrick Green"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"3831D1476EFE45E0A8212B71575B8853","name":"Anantharaman Shankar","authorTitle":{"value":"Anantharaman Shankar"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"B31F943BF4E54D4E9AED182C8953F0C4","name":"Luka Vukomanovic","authorTitle":{"value":"Luka Vukomanovic"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}}]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Converting refineries to renewable fuels: No simple switch"},"url":{"path":"/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/converting-refineries-to-renewable-fuels-no-simple-switch"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Feedstock type and availability, current plant configuration, regulation, and finance are just some factors to consider when planning a refinery conversion."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil and gas/our insights/converting refineries to renewable fuels no simple switch/thumb-gettyimages-988778726.jpg","alt":"Oil refinery - stock photo"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"The near-term outlook for refining: Where to now?"},"url":{"path":"/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/the-near-term-outlook-for-refining-where-to-now"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"With record high margins in 2022 pushing toward increasing market tightness, volatility, and potential long-term challenges, players can use this time as an opportunity to become more resilient."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil and gas/our insights/the near term outlook for refining where to now/thumb-gettyimages-1085139540.jpg","alt":"Aerial View of a Texas Oil Refinery and Fuel Storage Tanks - stock photo"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Refining in the energy transition through 2040"},"url":{"path":"/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/refining-in-the-energy-transition-through-2040"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"The size of the global refining industry varies dramatically across different energy transition scenarios by 2040. 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