Mysteel朝闻铝市：宏观预期改善叠加需求支撑铝价随商品偏强震荡为主-我的钢铁网

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var ap = new APlayer({ container: document.getElementById('aplayer'), loop:'none', preload:'none', audio: [{ theme:'#666', name: '<span class="sub-t"><span class="merquee-txt">9月20日朝闻铝市</span></span><span class="size">7.08MB</span>', url: 'https://mfs.mysteelcdn.com/group1/M00/C7/04/rBL632bsy4qAKHG4AHFG7YKO5Kc521.mp3', }] }); try { ap.audio.addEventListener('ended', function () { ap.audio.play() setTimeout(function(){ ap.audio.currentTime=0 ap.audio.pause() if($('.merquee-txt').outerWidth()>$('.sub-t').outerWidth()){ $('.merquee-txt').addClass('merquee-move') } },400) }, false); } catch (error) { } try { document.addEventListener('visibilitychange', function() { if (document.hidden) { // 关闭背景音乐 ap.pause() } else { // 开启背景音乐 // ap.play() } }) } catch (err) { } if($('.merquee-txt').outerWidth()>$('.sub-t').outerWidth()){ $('.merquee-txt').addClass('merquee-move') } </script> <div data-val="2381" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p><strong>【期货市场】</strong>国内市场：隔夜沪<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>主力合约报收20080元/吨，涨120元/吨，涨幅0.6%。国际市场：LME铝3M报收2540美元/吨，涨18美元/吨，涨幅0.71%。</p> <p><strong>【现货市场】（9月19日）</strong>钢联A00无<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0207-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锡</a>现货<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝价</a>19800-19840元/吨，均价19820元/吨，涨40元/吨。美国降息落地，早盘沪铝先抑后扬，无锡市场维持弱稳运行，铝价处于近期高位，持货商的出货积极性较高，不过库存累库预期不高，维持去库，持货商挺价信心仍存，报价在贴10元/吨至均价，接货商谨慎追涨，逢低按需补库，交投较昨日略有回暖，但支撑有限。</p> <p>钢联A00佛山市场铝锭现货成交价在19670-19690元/吨，均价19680元/吨，较上个交易日涨30元/吨。市场早间报平水为主，少量贴水10元/吨，现货成交寥寥无几；市场中期下调报贴水10元/吨为主，部分贴水20元/吨出货，贴水10元/吨成交一般。市场后期维持报贴水10元/吨为主，少量贴水20元/吨出货，贴水20元/吨成交尚可。当月合切换参考沪铝10合约，上海钢联A00铝锭对当月合约基差贴水175元/吨，中间商接货情绪有所改善，现货成交较上一交易日略有好转。</p> <p><strong>【宏观新闻】</strong>根据美联储主席鲍威尔的发言，中性利率可能上调，未来不会继续以50基点的速度降息，经济数据仍是主要依据。Nick Timiraos表示，降息太快可能导致通胀迟迟达不到2%的目标，降息太慢可能导致失业率重新上升，预计下次会议将继续面临和本次类似的不确定性。</p> <p>英国央行如期暂停降息，强调“循序渐进”，宣布千亿英镑缩表计划。英国央行的谨慎态度削弱了市场对年底降息的预期，目前市场预计年底将降息44个基点，昨日预期为46个基点。</p> <p>国家发展改革委政策研究室主任、中国发改委新闻发言人金贤东表示，落实更大力度吸引和利用外资行动方案，加快实施2024年版全国外资准入负面清单，针对性解决外商来华投资面临的堵点难点卡点问题，进一步提升外商投资自由化便利化水平。</p> <p>商务部指出，双方就欧盟对华电动汽车反补贴案进行全面、深入、建设性的磋商。中方指出，欧委会在没有盟内产业申请的情况下发起电动汽车反补贴调查，裁定不合规、不合理、不公正。尽管中方对此无法认同、不能接受，但始终秉持最大诚意，努力通过对话磋商妥善解决问题。</p> <p><strong>【行业追踪】</strong>国家统计局数据显示，2024年8月中国氧化铝产量733.6万吨，同比增长3.5%；1-8月累计产量5588.1万吨，同比增长2.4%。8月电解铝产量372.6万吨，同比增长2.5%；1-8月累计产量2890.9万吨，同比增长5.1%。8月铝材产量582.0万吨，同比增长4.9%；1-8月累计产量4445.6万吨，同比增长8.5%。8月铝合金产量134.6万吨，同比增长5.5%；1-8月累计产量1016.1万吨，同比增长8.7%。</p> <p>国家统计局数据显示，2024年8月中国铝材产量582.0万吨，同比增长4.9%；1-8月累计产量4445.6万吨，同比增长8.5%。从分省市数据来看，1-8月，山东以产量974.59万吨位列第一，河南产量777.64万吨排在第二，广东产量379.03万吨排在第三。</p> <p>世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2024年7月，全球原铝产量为593.74万吨，消费量为580.95万吨，供应过剩12.79万吨。2024年1-7月，全球原铝产量为4140.42万吨，消费量为4047.06万吨，供应过剩93.36万吨。</p> <p>旌德鼎新优材汽车轻量化技术有限公司拟建年产8万吨新能源汽车车用铝板材项目（一期），项目目前处于环境影响报告书审批前公示阶段。项目（一期）新增用地34.866亩，购置双室熔炼炉、合金熔炼炉、保温静置炉、铸轧机等生产设备，配套建设公辅及环保设施，形成年产32000吨新能源汽车车用铝板材生产能力。</p> <p><strong>【要点小结】</strong>海外方面，美联储降息次日，美国失业救济数据强化经济软着陆预期，美股创新高，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----02-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>有色金属</a>随商品上涨。基本面近期变动有限，出口订单好转对铝需求增量带来一定拉动作用，关注后续下游企业备货情绪。整体来看，原铝供应稳定为主但铸锭量下降趋势仍将持续，预计后续铝锭整体以季节性去库为主，预计宏观预期改善叠加需求支撑，铝价随商品偏强震荡为主。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：付易文 021-26093912 </br> 资讯监督：王宏飞 010-57930636 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div 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