CINXE.COM

<!DOCTYPE html> <html class="client-nojs vector-feature-language-in-header-enabled vector-feature-language-in-main-page-header-disabled vector-feature-sticky-header-disabled vector-feature-page-tools-pinned-disabled vector-feature-toc-pinned-clientpref-1 vector-feature-main-menu-pinned-disabled vector-feature-limited-width-clientpref-1 vector-feature-limited-width-content-enabled vector-feature-custom-font-size-clientpref-1 vector-feature-appearance-pinned-clientpref-1 vector-feature-night-mode-enabled skin-theme-clientpref-day vector-toc-available" lang="en" dir="ltr"> <head> <meta charset="UTF-8"> <title>Optimal decision - Wikipedia</title> <script>(function(){var className="client-js vector-feature-language-in-header-enabled vector-feature-language-in-main-page-header-disabled vector-feature-sticky-header-disabled vector-feature-page-tools-pinned-disabled vector-feature-toc-pinned-clientpref-1 vector-feature-main-menu-pinned-disabled vector-feature-limited-width-clientpref-1 vector-feature-limited-width-content-enabled vector-feature-custom-font-size-clientpref-1 vector-feature-appearance-pinned-clientpref-1 vector-feature-night-mode-enabled skin-theme-clientpref-day vector-toc-available";var cookie=document.cookie.match(/(?:^|; )enwikimwclientpreferences=([^;]+)/);if(cookie){cookie[1].split('%2C').forEach(function(pref){className=className.replace(new RegExp('(^| )'+pref.replace(/-clientpref-\w+$|[^\w-]+/g,'')+'-clientpref-\\w+( |$)'),'$1'+pref+'$2');});}document.documentElement.className=className;}());RLCONF={"wgBreakFrames":false,"wgSeparatorTransformTable":["",""],"wgDigitTransformTable":["",""],"wgDefaultDateFormat":"dmy", "wgMonthNames":["","January","February","March","April","May","June","July","August","September","October","November","December"],"wgRequestId":"f39192cc-334c-4900-b37c-4098251e712e","wgCanonicalNamespace":"","wgCanonicalSpecialPageName":false,"wgNamespaceNumber":0,"wgPageName":"Optimal_decision","wgTitle":"Optimal decision","wgCurRevisionId":1249708258,"wgRevisionId":1249708258,"wgArticleId":16414027,"wgIsArticle":true,"wgIsRedirect":false,"wgAction":"view","wgUserName":null,"wgUserGroups":["*"],"wgCategories":["Articles with short description","Short description matches Wikidata","Articles lacking in-text citations from September 2018","All articles lacking in-text citations","Optimal decisions"],"wgPageViewLanguage":"en","wgPageContentLanguage":"en","wgPageContentModel":"wikitext","wgRelevantPageName":"Optimal_decision","wgRelevantArticleId":16414027,"wgIsProbablyEditable":true,"wgRelevantPageIsProbablyEditable":true,"wgRestrictionEdit":[],"wgRestrictionMove":[],"wgNoticeProject": "wikipedia","wgCiteReferencePreviewsActive":false,"wgFlaggedRevsParams":{"tags":{"status":{"levels":1}}},"wgMediaViewerOnClick":true,"wgMediaViewerEnabledByDefault":true,"wgPopupsFlags":0,"wgVisualEditor":{"pageLanguageCode":"en","pageLanguageDir":"ltr","pageVariantFallbacks":"en"},"wgMFDisplayWikibaseDescriptions":{"search":true,"watchlist":true,"tagline":false,"nearby":true},"wgWMESchemaEditAttemptStepOversample":false,"wgWMEPageLength":4000,"wgRelatedArticlesCompat":[],"wgCentralAuthMobileDomain":false,"wgEditSubmitButtonLabelPublish":true,"wgULSPosition":"interlanguage","wgULSisCompactLinksEnabled":false,"wgVector2022LanguageInHeader":true,"wgULSisLanguageSelectorEmpty":false,"wgWikibaseItemId":"Q4335500","wgCheckUserClientHintsHeadersJsApi":["brands","architecture","bitness","fullVersionList","mobile","model","platform","platformVersion"],"GEHomepageSuggestedEditsEnableTopics":true,"wgGETopicsMatchModeEnabled":false,"wgGEStructuredTaskRejectionReasonTextInputEnabled":false, "wgGELevelingUpEnabledForUser":false};RLSTATE={"ext.globalCssJs.user.styles":"ready","site.styles":"ready","user.styles":"ready","ext.globalCssJs.user":"ready","user":"ready","user.options":"loading","ext.math.styles":"ready","skins.vector.search.codex.styles":"ready","skins.vector.styles":"ready","skins.vector.icons":"ready","jquery.makeCollapsible.styles":"ready","ext.wikimediamessages.styles":"ready","ext.visualEditor.desktopArticleTarget.noscript":"ready","ext.uls.interlanguage":"ready","wikibase.client.init":"ready","ext.wikimediaBadges":"ready"};RLPAGEMODULES=["ext.scribunto.logs","site","mediawiki.page.ready","jquery.makeCollapsible","mediawiki.toc","skins.vector.js","ext.centralNotice.geoIP","ext.centralNotice.startUp","ext.gadget.ReferenceTooltips","ext.gadget.switcher","ext.urlShortener.toolbar","ext.centralauth.centralautologin","mmv.bootstrap","ext.popups","ext.visualEditor.desktopArticleTarget.init","ext.visualEditor.targetLoader","ext.echo.centralauth","ext.eventLogging", "ext.wikimediaEvents","ext.navigationTiming","ext.uls.interface","ext.cx.eventlogging.campaigns","ext.cx.uls.quick.actions","wikibase.client.vector-2022","ext.checkUser.clientHints","ext.growthExperiments.SuggestedEditSession","wikibase.sidebar.tracking"];</script> <script>(RLQ=window.RLQ||[]).push(function(){mw.loader.impl(function(){return["user.options@12s5i",function($,jQuery,require,module){mw.user.tokens.set({"patrolToken":"+\\","watchToken":"+\\","csrfToken":"+\\"}); }];});});</script> <link rel="stylesheet" href="/w/load.php?lang=en&modules=ext.math.styles%7Cext.uls.interlanguage%7Cext.visualEditor.desktopArticleTarget.noscript%7Cext.wikimediaBadges%7Cext.wikimediamessages.styles%7Cjquery.makeCollapsible.styles%7Cskins.vector.icons%2Cstyles%7Cskins.vector.search.codex.styles%7Cwikibase.client.init&only=styles&skin=vector-2022"> <script async="" src="/w/load.php?lang=en&modules=startup&only=scripts&raw=1&skin=vector-2022"></script> <meta name="ResourceLoaderDynamicStyles" content=""> <link rel="stylesheet" href="/w/load.php?lang=en&modules=site.styles&only=styles&skin=vector-2022"> <meta name="generator" content="MediaWiki 1.44.0-wmf.4"> <meta name="referrer" content="origin"> <meta name="referrer" content="origin-when-cross-origin"> <meta name="robots" content="max-image-preview:standard"> <meta name="format-detection" content="telephone=no"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=1120"> <meta property="og:title" content="Optimal decision - Wikipedia"> <meta property="og:type" content="website"> <link rel="preconnect" href="//upload.wikimedia.org"> <link rel="alternate" media="only screen and (max-width: 640px)" href="//en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimal_decision"> <link rel="alternate" type="application/x-wiki" title="Edit this page" href="/w/index.php?title=Optimal_decision&action=edit"> <link rel="apple-touch-icon" href="/static/apple-touch/wikipedia.png"> <link rel="icon" href="/static/favicon/wikipedia.ico"> <link rel="search" type="application/opensearchdescription+xml" href="/w/rest.php/v1/search" title="Wikipedia (en)"> <link rel="EditURI" type="application/rsd+xml" href="//en.wikipedia.org/w/api.php?action=rsd"> <link rel="canonical" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimal_decision"> <link rel="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en"> <link rel="alternate" type="application/atom+xml" title="Wikipedia Atom feed" href="/w/index.php?title=Special:RecentChanges&feed=atom"> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//meta.wikimedia.org" /> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//login.wikimedia.org"> </head> <body class="skin--responsive skin-vector skin-vector-search-vue mediawiki ltr sitedir-ltr mw-hide-empty-elt ns-0 ns-subject mw-editable page-Optimal_decision rootpage-Optimal_decision skin-vector-2022 action-view"><a class="mw-jump-link" href="#bodyContent">Jump to content</a> <div class="vector-header-container"> <header class="vector-header mw-header"> <div class="vector-header-start"> <nav class="vector-main-menu-landmark" aria-label="Site"> <div id="vector-main-menu-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown vector-main-menu-dropdown vector-button-flush-left vector-button-flush-right" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-main-menu-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-main-menu-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Main menu" > <label id="vector-main-menu-dropdown-label" for="vector-main-menu-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-menu mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-menu"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Main menu</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-main-menu-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> <div id="vector-main-menu" class="vector-main-menu vector-pinnable-element"> <div class="vector-pinnable-header vector-main-menu-pinnable-header vector-pinnable-header-unpinned" data-feature-name="main-menu-pinned" data-pinnable-element-id="vector-main-menu" data-pinned-container-id="vector-main-menu-pinned-container" data-unpinned-container-id="vector-main-menu-unpinned-container" > <div class="vector-pinnable-header-label">Main menu</div> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-main-menu.pin">move to sidebar</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-main-menu.unpin">hide</button> </div> <div id="p-navigation" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-navigation" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Navigation </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="n-mainpage-description" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Main_Page" title="Visit the main page [z]" accesskey="z"><span>Main page</span></a></li><li id="n-contents" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Contents" title="Guides to browsing Wikipedia"><span>Contents</span></a></li><li id="n-currentevents" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Portal:Current_events" title="Articles related to current events"><span>Current events</span></a></li><li id="n-randompage" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:Random" title="Visit a randomly selected article [x]" accesskey="x"><span>Random article</span></a></li><li id="n-aboutsite" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:About" title="Learn about Wikipedia and how it works"><span>About Wikipedia</span></a></li><li id="n-contactpage" class="mw-list-item"><a href="//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Contact_us" title="How to contact Wikipedia"><span>Contact us</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-interaction" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-interaction" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Contribute </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="n-help" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Help:Contents" title="Guidance on how to use and edit Wikipedia"><span>Help</span></a></li><li id="n-introduction" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Help:Introduction" title="Learn how to edit Wikipedia"><span>Learn to edit</span></a></li><li id="n-portal" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Community_portal" title="The hub for editors"><span>Community portal</span></a></li><li id="n-recentchanges" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:RecentChanges" title="A list of recent changes to Wikipedia [r]" accesskey="r"><span>Recent changes</span></a></li><li id="n-upload" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:File_upload_wizard" title="Add images or other media for use on Wikipedia"><span>Upload file</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <a href="/wiki/Main_Page" class="mw-logo"> <img class="mw-logo-icon" src="/static/images/icons/wikipedia.png" alt="" aria-hidden="true" height="50" width="50"> <span class="mw-logo-container skin-invert"> <img class="mw-logo-wordmark" alt="Wikipedia" src="/static/images/mobile/copyright/wikipedia-wordmark-en.svg" style="width: 7.5em; height: 1.125em;"> <img class="mw-logo-tagline" alt="The Free Encyclopedia" src="/static/images/mobile/copyright/wikipedia-tagline-en.svg" width="117" height="13" style="width: 7.3125em; height: 0.8125em;"> </span> </a> </div> <div class="vector-header-end"> <div id="p-search" role="search" class="vector-search-box-vue vector-search-box-collapses vector-search-box-show-thumbnail vector-search-box-auto-expand-width vector-search-box"> <a href="/wiki/Special:Search" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only search-toggle" title="Search Wikipedia [f]" accesskey="f"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-search mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-search"></span> <span>Search</span> </a> <div class="vector-typeahead-search-container"> <div class="cdx-typeahead-search cdx-typeahead-search--show-thumbnail cdx-typeahead-search--auto-expand-width"> <form action="/w/index.php" id="searchform" class="cdx-search-input cdx-search-input--has-end-button"> <div id="simpleSearch" class="cdx-search-input__input-wrapper" data-search-loc="header-moved"> <div class="cdx-text-input cdx-text-input--has-start-icon"> <input class="cdx-text-input__input" type="search" name="search" placeholder="Search Wikipedia" aria-label="Search Wikipedia" autocapitalize="sentences" title="Search Wikipedia [f]" accesskey="f" id="searchInput" > <span class="cdx-text-input__icon cdx-text-input__start-icon"></span> </div> <input type="hidden" name="title" value="Special:Search"> </div> <button class="cdx-button cdx-search-input__end-button">Search</button> </form> </div> </div> </div> <nav class="vector-user-links vector-user-links-wide" aria-label="Personal tools"> <div class="vector-user-links-main"> <div id="p-vector-user-menu-preferences" class="vector-menu mw-portlet emptyPortlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-vector-user-menu-userpage" class="vector-menu mw-portlet emptyPortlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> </ul> </div> </div> <nav class="vector-appearance-landmark" aria-label="Appearance"> <div id="vector-appearance-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown " title="Change the appearance of the page's font size, width, and color" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-appearance-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-appearance-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Appearance" > <label id="vector-appearance-dropdown-label" for="vector-appearance-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-appearance mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-appearance"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Appearance</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-appearance-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <div id="p-vector-user-menu-notifications" class="vector-menu mw-portlet emptyPortlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-vector-user-menu-overflow" class="vector-menu mw-portlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="pt-sitesupport-2" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item user-links-collapsible-item"><a data-mw="interface" href="https://donate.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:FundraiserRedirector?utm_source=donate&utm_medium=sidebar&utm_campaign=C13_en.wikipedia.org&uselang=en" class=""><span>Donate</span></a> </li> <li id="pt-createaccount-2" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item user-links-collapsible-item"><a data-mw="interface" href="/w/index.php?title=Special:CreateAccount&returnto=Optimal+decision" title="You are encouraged to create an account and log in; however, it is not mandatory" class=""><span>Create account</span></a> </li> <li id="pt-login-2" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item user-links-collapsible-item"><a data-mw="interface" href="/w/index.php?title=Special:UserLogin&returnto=Optimal+decision" title="You're encouraged to log in; however, it's not mandatory. [o]" accesskey="o" class=""><span>Log in</span></a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div id="vector-user-links-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown vector-user-menu vector-button-flush-right vector-user-menu-logged-out" title="Log in and more options" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-user-links-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-user-links-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Personal tools" > <label id="vector-user-links-dropdown-label" for="vector-user-links-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-ellipsis mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-ellipsis"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Personal tools</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="p-personal" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-personal user-links-collapsible-item" title="User menu" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="pt-sitesupport" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="https://donate.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:FundraiserRedirector?utm_source=donate&utm_medium=sidebar&utm_campaign=C13_en.wikipedia.org&uselang=en"><span>Donate</span></a></li><li id="pt-createaccount" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:CreateAccount&returnto=Optimal+decision" title="You are encouraged to create an account and log in; however, it is not mandatory"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-userAdd mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-userAdd"></span> <span>Create account</span></a></li><li id="pt-login" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:UserLogin&returnto=Optimal+decision" title="You're encouraged to log in; however, it's not mandatory. [o]" accesskey="o"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-logIn mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-logIn"></span> <span>Log in</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-user-menu-anon-editor" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-user-menu-anon-editor" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Pages for logged out editors <a href="/wiki/Help:Introduction" aria-label="Learn more about editing"><span>learn more</span></a> </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="pt-anoncontribs" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:MyContributions" title="A list of edits made from this IP address [y]" accesskey="y"><span>Contributions</span></a></li><li id="pt-anontalk" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:MyTalk" title="Discussion about edits from this IP address [n]" accesskey="n"><span>Talk</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </header> </div> <div class="mw-page-container"> <div class="mw-page-container-inner"> <div class="vector-sitenotice-container"> <div id="siteNotice"></div> </div> <div class="vector-column-start"> <div class="vector-main-menu-container"> <div id="mw-navigation"> <nav id="mw-panel" class="vector-main-menu-landmark" aria-label="Site"> <div id="vector-main-menu-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="vector-sticky-pinned-container"> <nav id="mw-panel-toc" aria-label="Contents" data-event-name="ui.sidebar-toc" class="mw-table-of-contents-container vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-toc-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> <div id="vector-toc" class="vector-toc vector-pinnable-element"> <div class="vector-pinnable-header vector-toc-pinnable-header vector-pinnable-header-pinned" data-feature-name="toc-pinned" data-pinnable-element-id="vector-toc" > <h2 class="vector-pinnable-header-label">Contents</h2> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-toc.pin">move to sidebar</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-toc.unpin">hide</button> </div> <ul class="vector-toc-contents" id="mw-panel-toc-list"> <li id="toc-mw-content-text" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a href="#" class="vector-toc-link"> <div class="vector-toc-text">(Top)</div> </a> </li> <li id="toc-Formal_mathematical_description" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Formal_mathematical_description"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1</span> <span>Formal mathematical description</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Formal_mathematical_description-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Under_uncertainty_in_outcome" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Under_uncertainty_in_outcome"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2</span> <span>Under uncertainty in outcome</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Under_uncertainty_in_outcome-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-See_also" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3</span> <span>See also</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#References"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>References</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-References-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="Contents" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-titlebar-toc vector-button-flush-left" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Toggle the table of contents" > <label id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-label" for="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-listBullet mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-listBullet"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Toggle the table of contents</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading mw-first-heading"><span class="mw-page-title-main">Optimal decision</span></h1> <div id="p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-lang" > <input type="checkbox" id="p-lang-btn-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox mw-interlanguage-selector" aria-label="Go to an article in another language. Available in 5 languages" > <label id="p-lang-btn-label" for="p-lang-btn-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive mw-portlet-lang-heading-5" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-language-progressive mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-language-progressive"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">5 languages</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fa mw-list-item"><a href="https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%AA%D8%B5%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%85_%D8%A8%D9%87%DB%8C%D9%86%D9%87" title="تصمیم بهینه – Persian" lang="fa" hreflang="fa" data-title="تصمیم بهینه" data-language-autonym="فارسی" data-language-local-name="Persian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>فارسی</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-it mw-list-item"><a href="https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decisione_ottimale" title="Decisione ottimale – Italian" lang="it" hreflang="it" data-title="Decisione ottimale" data-language-autonym="Italiano" data-language-local-name="Italian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Italiano</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pl mw-list-item"><a href="https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decyzja_optymalna" title="Decyzja optymalna – Polish" lang="pl" hreflang="pl" data-title="Decyzja optymalna" data-language-autonym="Polski" data-language-local-name="Polish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Polski</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ru mw-list-item"><a href="https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9E%D0%BF%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B5_%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%88%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5" title="Оптимальное решение – Russian" lang="ru" hreflang="ru" data-title="Оптимальное решение" data-language-autonym="Русский" data-language-local-name="Russian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Русский</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-uk mw-list-item"><a href="https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9E%D0%BF%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%B5_%D1%80%D1%96%D1%88%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F" title="Оптимальне рішення – Ukrainian" lang="uk" hreflang="uk" data-title="Оптимальне рішення" data-language-autonym="Українська" data-language-local-name="Ukrainian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Українська</span></a></li> </ul> <div class="after-portlet after-portlet-lang"><span class="wb-langlinks-edit wb-langlinks-link"><a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Special:EntityPage/Q4335500#sitelinks-wikipedia" title="Edit interlanguage links" class="wbc-editpage">Edit links</a></span></div> </div> </div> </div> </header> <div class="vector-page-toolbar"> <div class="vector-page-toolbar-container"> <div id="left-navigation"> <nav aria-label="Namespaces"> <div id="p-associated-pages" class="vector-menu vector-menu-tabs mw-portlet mw-portlet-associated-pages" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="ca-nstab-main" class="selected vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Optimal_decision" title="View the content page [c]" accesskey="c"><span>Article</span></a></li><li id="ca-talk" class="vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Talk:Optimal_decision" rel="discussion" title="Discuss improvements to the content page [t]" accesskey="t"><span>Talk</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="vector-variants-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown emptyPortlet" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-variants-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-variants-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Change language variant" > <label id="vector-variants-dropdown-label" for="vector-variants-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">English</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="p-variants" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-variants emptyPortlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> <div id="right-navigation" class="vector-collapsible"> <nav aria-label="Views"> <div id="p-views" class="vector-menu vector-menu-tabs mw-portlet mw-portlet-views" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="ca-view" class="selected vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Optimal_decision"><span>Read</span></a></li><li id="ca-edit" class="vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimal_decision&action=edit" title="Edit this page [e]" accesskey="e"><span>Edit</span></a></li><li id="ca-history" class="vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimal_decision&action=history" title="Past revisions of this page [h]" accesskey="h"><span>View history</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> <nav class="vector-page-tools-landmark" aria-label="Page tools"> <div id="vector-page-tools-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-tools-dropdown" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-tools-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-page-tools-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Tools" > <label id="vector-page-tools-dropdown-label" for="vector-page-tools-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Tools</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-page-tools-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> <div id="vector-page-tools" class="vector-page-tools vector-pinnable-element"> <div class="vector-pinnable-header vector-page-tools-pinnable-header vector-pinnable-header-unpinned" data-feature-name="page-tools-pinned" data-pinnable-element-id="vector-page-tools" data-pinned-container-id="vector-page-tools-pinned-container" data-unpinned-container-id="vector-page-tools-unpinned-container" > <div class="vector-pinnable-header-label">Tools</div> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-page-tools.pin">move to sidebar</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-page-tools.unpin">hide</button> </div> <div id="p-cactions" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-cactions emptyPortlet vector-has-collapsible-items" title="More options" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Actions </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="ca-more-view" class="selected vector-more-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Optimal_decision"><span>Read</span></a></li><li id="ca-more-edit" class="vector-more-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimal_decision&action=edit" title="Edit this page [e]" accesskey="e"><span>Edit</span></a></li><li id="ca-more-history" class="vector-more-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimal_decision&action=history"><span>View history</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-tb" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-tb" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> General </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="t-whatlinkshere" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:WhatLinksHere/Optimal_decision" title="List of all English Wikipedia pages containing links to this page [j]" accesskey="j"><span>What links here</span></a></li><li id="t-recentchangeslinked" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:RecentChangesLinked/Optimal_decision" rel="nofollow" title="Recent changes in pages linked from this page [k]" accesskey="k"><span>Related changes</span></a></li><li id="t-upload" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:File_Upload_Wizard" title="Upload files [u]" accesskey="u"><span>Upload file</span></a></li><li id="t-specialpages" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:SpecialPages" title="A list of all special pages [q]" accesskey="q"><span>Special pages</span></a></li><li id="t-permalink" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimal_decision&oldid=1249708258" title="Permanent link to this revision of this page"><span>Permanent link</span></a></li><li id="t-info" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimal_decision&action=info" title="More information about this page"><span>Page information</span></a></li><li id="t-cite" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:CiteThisPage&page=Optimal_decision&id=1249708258&wpFormIdentifier=titleform" title="Information on how to cite this page"><span>Cite this page</span></a></li><li id="t-urlshortener" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:UrlShortener&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FOptimal_decision"><span>Get shortened URL</span></a></li><li id="t-urlshortener-qrcode" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:QrCode&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FOptimal_decision"><span>Download QR code</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-coll-print_export" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-coll-print_export" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Print/export </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="coll-download-as-rl" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:DownloadAsPdf&page=Optimal_decision&action=show-download-screen" title="Download this page as a PDF file"><span>Download as PDF</span></a></li><li id="t-print" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimal_decision&printable=yes" title="Printable version of this page [p]" accesskey="p"><span>Printable version</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-wikibase-otherprojects" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-wikibase-otherprojects" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> In other projects </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="t-wikibase" class="wb-otherproject-link wb-otherproject-wikibase-dataitem mw-list-item"><a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Special:EntityPage/Q4335500" title="Structured data on this page hosted by Wikidata [g]" accesskey="g"><span>Wikidata item</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> </div> <div class="vector-column-end"> <div class="vector-sticky-pinned-container"> <nav class="vector-page-tools-landmark" aria-label="Page tools"> <div id="vector-page-tools-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> </div> </nav> <nav class="vector-appearance-landmark" aria-label="Appearance"> <div id="vector-appearance-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> <div id="vector-appearance" class="vector-appearance vector-pinnable-element"> <div class="vector-pinnable-header vector-appearance-pinnable-header vector-pinnable-header-pinned" data-feature-name="appearance-pinned" data-pinnable-element-id="vector-appearance" data-pinned-container-id="vector-appearance-pinned-container" data-unpinned-container-id="vector-appearance-unpinned-container" > <div class="vector-pinnable-header-label">Appearance</div> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-appearance.pin">move to sidebar</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-appearance.unpin">hide</button> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div id="bodyContent" class="vector-body" aria-labelledby="firstHeading" data-mw-ve-target-container> <div class="vector-body-before-content"> <div class="mw-indicators"> </div> <div id="siteSub" class="noprint">From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</div> </div> <div id="contentSub"><div id="mw-content-subtitle"></div></div> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux" style="display:none">Decision that leads to the best outcome in decision theory</div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1251242444">.mw-parser-output .ambox{border:1px solid #a2a9b1;border-left:10px solid #36c;background-color:#fbfbfb;box-sizing:border-box}.mw-parser-output .ambox+link+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+link+style+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+link+link+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+.mw-empty-elt+link+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+.mw-empty-elt+link+style+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+.mw-empty-elt+link+link+.ambox{margin-top:-1px}html body.mediawiki .mw-parser-output .ambox.mbox-small-left{margin:4px 1em 4px 0;overflow:hidden;width:238px;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:88%;line-height:1.25em}.mw-parser-output .ambox-speedy{border-left:10px solid #b32424;background-color:#fee7e6}.mw-parser-output .ambox-delete{border-left:10px solid #b32424}.mw-parser-output .ambox-content{border-left:10px solid #f28500}.mw-parser-output .ambox-style{border-left:10px solid #fc3}.mw-parser-output .ambox-move{border-left:10px solid #9932cc}.mw-parser-output .ambox-protection{border-left:10px solid #a2a9b1}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-text{border:none;padding:0.25em 0.5em;width:100%}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-image{border:none;padding:2px 0 2px 0.5em;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-imageright{border:none;padding:2px 0.5em 2px 0;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-empty-cell{border:none;padding:0;width:1px}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-image-div{width:52px}@media(min-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .ambox{margin:0 10%}}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .ambox{display:none!important}}</style><table class="box-No_footnotes plainlinks metadata ambox ambox-style ambox-No_footnotes" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td class="mbox-image"><div class="mbox-image-div"><span typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a4/Text_document_with_red_question_mark.svg/40px-Text_document_with_red_question_mark.svg.png" decoding="async" width="40" height="40" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a4/Text_document_with_red_question_mark.svg/60px-Text_document_with_red_question_mark.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a4/Text_document_with_red_question_mark.svg/80px-Text_document_with_red_question_mark.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="48" data-file-height="48" /></span></span></div></td><td class="mbox-text"><div class="mbox-text-span">This article includes a <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citing_sources" title="Wikipedia:Citing sources">list of references</a>, <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Further_reading" title="Wikipedia:Further reading">related reading</a>, or <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:External_links" title="Wikipedia:External links">external links</a>, <b>but its sources remain unclear because it lacks <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citing_sources#Inline_citations" title="Wikipedia:Citing sources">inline citations</a></b>.<span class="hide-when-compact"> Please help <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:WikiProject_Fact_and_Reference_Check" class="mw-redirect" title="Wikipedia:WikiProject Fact and Reference Check">improve</a> this article by <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:When_to_cite" title="Wikipedia:When to cite">introducing</a> more precise citations.</span> <span class="date-container"><i>(<span class="date">September 2018</span>)</i></span><span class="hide-when-compact"><i> (<small><a href="/wiki/Help:Maintenance_template_removal" title="Help:Maintenance template removal">Learn how and when to remove this message</a></small>)</i></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table> <p>An <b>optimal decision</b> is a decision that leads to at least as good a known or expected outcome as all other available decision options. It is an important concept in <a href="/wiki/Decision_theory" title="Decision theory">decision theory</a>. In order to compare the different decision outcomes, one commonly assigns a <a href="/wiki/Utility" title="Utility">utility</a> value to each of them. </p><p>If there is uncertainty as to what the outcome will be but one has knowledge about the distribution of the uncertainty, then under the <a href="/wiki/Von_Neumann%E2%80%93Morgenstern_axioms" class="mw-redirect" title="Von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms">von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms</a> the optimal decision maximizes the <a href="/wiki/Expected_utility_hypothesis" title="Expected utility hypothesis">expected utility</a> (a probability–<a href="/wiki/Weighted_average" class="mw-redirect" title="Weighted average">weighted average</a> of utility over all possible outcomes of a decision). Sometimes, the equivalent problem of minimizing the <a href="/wiki/Expected_value" title="Expected value">expected value</a> of <a href="/wiki/Loss_function" title="Loss function">loss</a> is considered, where loss is (–1) times utility. Another equivalent problem is minimizing expected <a href="/wiki/Regret_(decision_theory)" title="Regret (decision theory)">regret</a>. </p><p>"Utility" is only an arbitrary term for quantifying the desirability of a particular decision outcome and not necessarily related to "usefulness." For example, it may well be the optimal decision for someone to buy a sports car rather than a station wagon, if the outcome in terms of another criterion (e.g., effect on personal image) is more desirable, even given the higher cost and lack of versatility of the sports car. </p><p>The problem of finding the optimal decision is a <a href="/wiki/Mathematical_optimization" title="Mathematical optimization">mathematical optimization</a> problem. In practice, few people verify that their decisions are optimal, but instead use <a href="/wiki/Heuristics" class="mw-redirect" title="Heuristics">heuristics</a> and rules of thumb to make decisions that are "good enough"—that is, they engage in <a href="/wiki/Satisficing" title="Satisficing">satisficing</a>. </p><p>A more formal approach may be used when the decision is important enough to motivate the time it takes to analyze it, or when it is too complex to solve with more simple intuitive approaches, such as many available decision options and a complex decision–outcome relationship. </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Formal_mathematical_description">Formal mathematical description</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimal_decision&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Formal mathematical description"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Each decision <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle d}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>d</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle d}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/e85ff03cbe0c7341af6b982e47e9f90d235c66ab" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.216ex; height:2.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle d}"></span> in a set <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle D}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>D</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle D}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/f34a0c600395e5d4345287e21fb26efd386990e6" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.924ex; height:2.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle D}"></span> of available decision options will lead to an outcome <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle o=f(d)}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>o</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mi>f</mi> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>d</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle o=f(d)}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/9509ab535f9a158e8b5a00ffdc99d251b9807c4b" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:8.53ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle o=f(d)}"></span>. All possible outcomes form the set <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle O}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>O</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle O}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/9d70e1d0d87e2ef1092ea1ffe2923d9933ff18fc" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.773ex; height:2.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle O}"></span>. Assigning a utility <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle U_{O}(o)}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mi>U</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>O</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>o</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle U_{O}(o)}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/48d4ab38ba3fb14a1616cba2d912ce0308714654" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:6.011ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle U_{O}(o)}"></span> to every outcome, we can define the utility of a particular decision <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle d}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>d</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle d}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/e85ff03cbe0c7341af6b982e47e9f90d235c66ab" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.216ex; height:2.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle d}"></span> as </p> <dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle U_{D}(d)\ =\ U_{O}(f(d)).\,}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mi>U</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>D</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>d</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mtext> </mtext> <mo>=</mo> <mtext> </mtext> <msub> <mi>U</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>O</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>f</mi> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>d</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mo>.</mo> <mspace width="thinmathspace" /> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle U_{D}(d)\ =\ U_{O}(f(d)).\,}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/8016006ad79ca439e2c1c224be0385e786875b46" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:20.686ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle U_{D}(d)\ =\ U_{O}(f(d)).\,}"></span></dd></dl> <p>We can then define an optimal decision <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle d_{\mathrm {opt} }}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mi>d</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">o</mi> <mi mathvariant="normal">p</mi> <mi mathvariant="normal">t</mi> </mrow> </mrow> </msub> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle d_{\mathrm {opt} }}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/cea27f3ba42c9729e60c09e3193f85599d9dbc8b" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.005ex; width:3.817ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle d_{\mathrm {opt} }}"></span> as one that maximizes <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle U_{D}(d)}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mi>U</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>D</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>d</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle U_{D}(d)}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/a31b5c75e435836beb5b732e6e5435812595558f" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:6.206ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle U_{D}(d)}"></span> : </p> <dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle d_{\mathrm {opt} }=\arg \max \limits _{d\in D}U_{D}(d).\,}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mi>d</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">o</mi> <mi mathvariant="normal">p</mi> <mi mathvariant="normal">t</mi> </mrow> </mrow> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mi>arg</mi> <mo>⁡</mo> <munder> <mo form="prefix">max</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>d</mi> <mo>∈</mo> <mi>D</mi> </mrow> </munder> <msub> <mi>U</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>D</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>d</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mo>.</mo> <mspace width="thinmathspace" /> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle d_{\mathrm {opt} }=\arg \max \limits _{d\in D}U_{D}(d).\,}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/44afb37d8136b2b6c54718d10dd0f1b2ec2c4fc1" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -2.171ex; width:22.491ex; height:4.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle d_{\mathrm {opt} }=\arg \max \limits _{d\in D}U_{D}(d).\,}"></span></dd></dl> <p>Solving the problem can thus be divided into three steps: </p> <ol><li>predicting the outcome <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle o}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>o</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle o}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/0c1031f61947aa3d1cf3a70ec3e4904df2c3675d" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.128ex; height:1.676ex;" alt="{\displaystyle o}"></span> for every decision <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle d;}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>d</mi> <mo>;</mo> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle d;}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/9d9adaa76d7b51f1c58f8e2d7ba498da86818d12" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; width:1.863ex; height:2.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle d;}"></span></li> <li>assigning a utility <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle U_{O}(o)}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mi>U</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>O</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>o</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle U_{O}(o)}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/48d4ab38ba3fb14a1616cba2d912ce0308714654" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:6.011ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle U_{O}(o)}"></span> to every outcome <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle o;}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>o</mi> <mo>;</mo> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle o;}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/1351d8d234bec4010c4cccaba204679a0da754f7" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; width:1.774ex; height:2.009ex;" alt="{\displaystyle o;}"></span></li> <li>finding the decision <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle d}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>d</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle d}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/e85ff03cbe0c7341af6b982e47e9f90d235c66ab" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.216ex; height:2.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle d}"></span> that maximizes <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle U_{D}(d).}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mi>U</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>D</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>d</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mo>.</mo> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle U_{D}(d).}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/36d08c141f751f436f31a14275354ed448b74fbd" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:6.852ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle U_{D}(d).}"></span></li></ol> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Under_uncertainty_in_outcome">Under uncertainty in outcome</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimal_decision&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Under uncertainty in outcome"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>In case it is not possible to predict with certainty what will be the outcome of a particular decision, a probabilistic approach is necessary. In its most general form, it can be expressed as follows: </p><p>Given a decision <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle d}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>d</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle d}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/e85ff03cbe0c7341af6b982e47e9f90d235c66ab" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.216ex; height:2.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle d}"></span>, we know the probability distribution for the possible outcomes described by the <a href="/wiki/Conditional_probability_distribution" title="Conditional probability distribution">conditional probability density</a> <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle p(o|d)}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>p</mi> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>o</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo stretchy="false">|</mo> </mrow> <mi>d</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle p(o|d)}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/1a79ef13d04cc602bb9dd987113ccc9aeb4c1a96" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; margin-left: -0.089ex; width:6.058ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle p(o|d)}"></span>. Considering <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle U_{D}(d)}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mi>U</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>D</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>d</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle U_{D}(d)}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/a31b5c75e435836beb5b732e6e5435812595558f" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:6.206ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle U_{D}(d)}"></span> as a <a href="/wiki/Random_variable" title="Random variable">random variable</a> (conditional on <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle d}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>d</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle d}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/e85ff03cbe0c7341af6b982e47e9f90d235c66ab" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.216ex; height:2.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle d}"></span>), we can calculate the expected utility of decision <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle d}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>d</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle d}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/e85ff03cbe0c7341af6b982e47e9f90d235c66ab" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.216ex; height:2.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle d}"></span> as </p> <dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle {\text{E}}U_{D}(d)=\int {p(o|d)U(o)do}\,}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mtext>E</mtext> </mrow> <msub> <mi>U</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>D</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>d</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mo>=</mo> <mo>∫</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>p</mi> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>o</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo stretchy="false">|</mo> </mrow> <mi>d</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mi>U</mi> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>o</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mi>d</mi> <mi>o</mi> </mrow> <mspace width="thinmathspace" /> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle {\text{E}}U_{D}(d)=\int {p(o|d)U(o)do}\,}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/e14b7d8323d1c58621f725e9d83051e1ad53a4ba" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -2.338ex; width:26.887ex; height:5.676ex;" alt="{\displaystyle {\text{E}}U_{D}(d)=\int {p(o|d)U(o)do}\,}"></span> ,</dd></dl> <p>where the integral is taken over the whole set <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle O}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>O</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle O}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/9d70e1d0d87e2ef1092ea1ffe2923d9933ff18fc" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.773ex; height:2.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle O}"></span> (DeGroot, pp 121). </p><p>An optimal decision <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle d_{\mathrm {opt} }}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mi>d</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">o</mi> <mi mathvariant="normal">p</mi> <mi mathvariant="normal">t</mi> </mrow> </mrow> </msub> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle d_{\mathrm {opt} }}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/cea27f3ba42c9729e60c09e3193f85599d9dbc8b" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.005ex; width:3.817ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle d_{\mathrm {opt} }}"></span> is then one that maximizes <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle {\text{E}}U_{D}(d)}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mtext>E</mtext> </mrow> <msub> <mi>U</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>D</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>d</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle {\text{E}}U_{D}(d)}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/ba4f673c5caa690c2626a8832c7c4b7e175cf0d0" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:7.788ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle {\text{E}}U_{D}(d)}"></span>, just as above: </p> <dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle d_{\mathrm {opt} }=\arg \max \limits _{d\in D}{\text{E}}U_{D}(d).\,}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mi>d</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">o</mi> <mi mathvariant="normal">p</mi> <mi mathvariant="normal">t</mi> </mrow> </mrow> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mi>arg</mi> <mo>⁡</mo> <munder> <mo form="prefix">max</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>d</mi> <mo>∈</mo> <mi>D</mi> </mrow> </munder> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mtext>E</mtext> </mrow> <msub> <mi>U</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>D</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>d</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mo>.</mo> <mspace width="thinmathspace" /> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle d_{\mathrm {opt} }=\arg \max \limits _{d\in D}{\text{E}}U_{D}(d).\,}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/143f4a75f3ed221c29953cb0677070527bc650db" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -2.171ex; width:24.074ex; height:4.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle d_{\mathrm {opt} }=\arg \max \limits _{d\in D}{\text{E}}U_{D}(d).\,}"></span></dd></dl> <p>An example is the <a href="/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem" title="Monty Hall problem">Monty Hall problem</a>. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimal_decision&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Decision-making" title="Decision-making">Decision-making</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Decision-making_software" title="Decision-making software">Decision-making software</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Two-alternative_forced_choice" title="Two-alternative forced choice">Two-alternative forced choice</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimal_decision&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li>Morris DeGroot <i>Optimal Statistical Decisions</i>. McGraw-Hill. New York. 1970. <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/0-07-016242-5" title="Special:BookSources/0-07-016242-5">0-07-016242-5</a>.</li> <li>James O. Berger <i>Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis</i>. Second Edition. 1980. Springer Series in Statistics. <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/0-387-96098-8" title="Special:BookSources/0-387-96098-8">0-387-96098-8</a>.</li></ul> <div class="navbox-styles"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1129693374">.mw-parser-output .hlist dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul{margin:0;padding:0}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt,.mw-parser-output .hlist li{margin:0;display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul ul{display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist .mw-empty-li{display:none}.mw-parser-output .hlist dt::after{content:": "}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd::after,.mw-parser-output .hlist li::after{content:" · ";font-weight:bold}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd:last-child::after,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt:last-child::after,.mw-parser-output .hlist li:last-child::after{content:none}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd dd:first-child::before,.mw-parser-output .hlist dd dt:first-child::before,.mw-parser-output .hlist dd li:first-child::before,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt dd:first-child::before,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt dt:first-child::before,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt li:first-child::before,.mw-parser-output .hlist li dd:first-child::before,.mw-parser-output .hlist li dt:first-child::before,.mw-parser-output .hlist li li:first-child::before{content:" (";font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd dd:last-child::after,.mw-parser-output .hlist dd dt:last-child::after,.mw-parser-output .hlist dd li:last-child::after,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt dd:last-child::after,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt dt:last-child::after,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt li:last-child::after,.mw-parser-output .hlist li dd:last-child::after,.mw-parser-output .hlist li dt:last-child::after,.mw-parser-output .hlist li li:last-child::after{content:")";font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .hlist ol{counter-reset:listitem}.mw-parser-output .hlist ol>li{counter-increment:listitem}.mw-parser-output .hlist ol>li::before{content:" "counter(listitem)"\a0 "}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd ol>li:first-child::before,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt ol>li:first-child::before,.mw-parser-output .hlist li ol>li:first-child::before{content:" ("counter(listitem)"\a0 "}</style><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236075235">.mw-parser-output .navbox{box-sizing:border-box;border:1px solid #a2a9b1;width:100%;clear:both;font-size:88%;text-align:center;padding:1px;margin:1em auto 0}.mw-parser-output .navbox .navbox{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .navbox+.navbox,.mw-parser-output .navbox+.navbox-styles+.navbox{margin-top:-1px}.mw-parser-output .navbox-inner,.mw-parser-output .navbox-subgroup{width:100%}.mw-parser-output .navbox-group,.mw-parser-output .navbox-title,.mw-parser-output .navbox-abovebelow{padding:0.25em 1em;line-height:1.5em;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .navbox-group{white-space:nowrap;text-align:right}.mw-parser-output .navbox,.mw-parser-output .navbox-subgroup{background-color:#fdfdfd}.mw-parser-output .navbox-list{line-height:1.5em;border-color:#fdfdfd}.mw-parser-output .navbox-list-with-group{text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid}.mw-parser-output tr+tr>.navbox-abovebelow,.mw-parser-output tr+tr>.navbox-group,.mw-parser-output tr+tr>.navbox-image,.mw-parser-output tr+tr>.navbox-list{border-top:2px solid #fdfdfd}.mw-parser-output .navbox-title{background-color:#ccf}.mw-parser-output .navbox-abovebelow,.mw-parser-output .navbox-group,.mw-parser-output .navbox-subgroup .navbox-title{background-color:#ddf}.mw-parser-output .navbox-subgroup .navbox-group,.mw-parser-output .navbox-subgroup .navbox-abovebelow{background-color:#e6e6ff}.mw-parser-output .navbox-even{background-color:#f7f7f7}.mw-parser-output .navbox-odd{background-color:transparent}.mw-parser-output .navbox .hlist td dl,.mw-parser-output .navbox .hlist td ol,.mw-parser-output .navbox .hlist td ul,.mw-parser-output .navbox td.hlist dl,.mw-parser-output .navbox td.hlist ol,.mw-parser-output .navbox td.hlist ul{padding:0.125em 0}.mw-parser-output .navbox .navbar{display:block;font-size:100%}.mw-parser-output .navbox-title .navbar{float:left;text-align:left;margin-right:0.5em}body.skin--responsive .mw-parser-output .navbox-image img{max-width:none!important}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .navbox{display:none!important}}</style></div><div role="navigation" class="navbox" aria-labelledby="Statistics" style="padding:3px"><table class="nowraplinks hlist mw-collapsible uncollapsed navbox-inner" style="border-spacing:0;background:transparent;color:inherit"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239400231">.mw-parser-output .navbar{display:inline;font-size:88%;font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .navbar-collapse{float:left;text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .navbar-boxtext{word-spacing:0}.mw-parser-output .navbar ul{display:inline-block;white-space:nowrap;line-height:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-brackets::before{margin-right:-0.125em;content:"[ "}.mw-parser-output .navbar-brackets::after{margin-left:-0.125em;content:" ]"}.mw-parser-output .navbar li{word-spacing:-0.125em}.mw-parser-output .navbar a>span,.mw-parser-output .navbar a>abbr{text-decoration:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-mini abbr{font-variant:small-caps;border-bottom:none;text-decoration:none;cursor:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-ct-full{font-size:114%;margin:0 7em}.mw-parser-output .navbar-ct-mini{font-size:114%;margin:0 4em}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .navbar li a abbr{color:var(--color-base)!important}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .navbar li a abbr{color:var(--color-base)!important}}@media print{.mw-parser-output .navbar{display:none!important}}</style><div class="navbar plainlinks hlist navbar-mini"><ul><li class="nv-view"><a href="/wiki/Template:Statistics" title="Template:Statistics"><abbr title="View this template">v</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a href="/wiki/Template_talk:Statistics" title="Template talk:Statistics"><abbr title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Template:Statistics" title="Special:EditPage/Template:Statistics"><abbr title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div><div id="Statistics" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Statistics" title="Statistics">Statistics</a></div></th></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Outline_of_statistics" title="Outline of statistics">Outline</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_statistics_articles" title="List of statistics articles">Index</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Descriptive_statistics" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Descriptive_statistics" title="Descriptive statistics">Descriptive statistics</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Continuous_probability_distribution" class="mw-redirect" title="Continuous probability distribution">Continuous data</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;"><a href="/wiki/Central_tendency" title="Central tendency">Center</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mean" title="Mean">Mean</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Arithmetic_mean" title="Arithmetic mean">Arithmetic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arithmetic%E2%80%93geometric_mean" title="Arithmetic–geometric mean">Arithmetic-Geometric</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Contraharmonic_mean" title="Contraharmonic mean">Contraharmonic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cubic_mean" title="Cubic mean">Cubic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Generalized_mean" title="Generalized mean">Generalized/power</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Geometric_mean" title="Geometric mean">Geometric</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Harmonic_mean" title="Harmonic mean">Harmonic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heronian_mean" title="Heronian mean">Heronian</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heinz_mean" title="Heinz mean">Heinz</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Lehmer_mean" title="Lehmer mean">Lehmer</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Median" title="Median">Median</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mode_(statistics)" title="Mode (statistics)">Mode</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;"><a href="/wiki/Statistical_dispersion" title="Statistical dispersion">Dispersion</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Average_absolute_deviation" title="Average absolute deviation">Average absolute deviation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Coefficient_of_variation" title="Coefficient of variation">Coefficient of variation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Interquartile_range" title="Interquartile range">Interquartile range</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Percentile" title="Percentile">Percentile</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Range_(statistics)" title="Range (statistics)">Range</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Standard_deviation" title="Standard deviation">Standard deviation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Variance#Sample_variance" title="Variance">Variance</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;"><a href="/wiki/Shape_of_the_distribution" class="mw-redirect" title="Shape of the distribution">Shape</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Central_limit_theorem" title="Central limit theorem">Central limit theorem</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Moment_(mathematics)" title="Moment (mathematics)">Moments</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Kurtosis" title="Kurtosis">Kurtosis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/L-moment" title="L-moment">L-moments</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Skewness" title="Skewness">Skewness</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Count_data" title="Count data">Count data</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Index_of_dispersion" title="Index of dispersion">Index of dispersion</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em">Summary tables</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Contingency_table" title="Contingency table">Contingency table</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Frequency_distribution" class="mw-redirect" title="Frequency distribution">Frequency distribution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Grouped_data" title="Grouped data">Grouped data</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Correlation_and_dependence" class="mw-redirect" title="Correlation and dependence">Dependence</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Partial_correlation" title="Partial correlation">Partial correlation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pearson_correlation_coefficient" title="Pearson correlation coefficient">Pearson product-moment correlation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rank_correlation" title="Rank correlation">Rank correlation</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Kendall_rank_correlation_coefficient" title="Kendall rank correlation coefficient">Kendall's τ</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Spearman%27s_rank_correlation_coefficient" title="Spearman's rank correlation coefficient">Spearman's ρ</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Scatter_plot" title="Scatter plot">Scatter plot</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Statistical_graphics" title="Statistical graphics">Graphics</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Bar_chart" title="Bar chart">Bar chart</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Biplot" title="Biplot">Biplot</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Box_plot" title="Box plot">Box plot</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Control_chart" title="Control chart">Control chart</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Correlogram" title="Correlogram">Correlogram</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fan_chart_(statistics)" title="Fan chart (statistics)">Fan chart</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Forest_plot" title="Forest plot">Forest plot</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Histogram" title="Histogram">Histogram</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pie_chart" title="Pie chart">Pie chart</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Q%E2%80%93Q_plot" title="Q–Q plot">Q–Q plot</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Radar_chart" title="Radar chart">Radar chart</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Run_chart" title="Run chart">Run chart</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Scatter_plot" title="Scatter plot">Scatter plot</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stem-and-leaf_display" title="Stem-and-leaf display">Stem-and-leaf display</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Violin_plot" title="Violin plot">Violin plot</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Data_collection" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Data_collection" title="Data collection">Data collection</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Design_of_experiments" title="Design of experiments">Study design</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effect_size" title="Effect size">Effect size</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Missing_data" title="Missing data">Missing data</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Optimal_design" class="mw-redirect" title="Optimal design">Optimal design</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Statistical_population" title="Statistical population">Population</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Replication_(statistics)" title="Replication (statistics)">Replication</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sample_size_determination" title="Sample size determination">Sample size determination</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Statistic" title="Statistic">Statistic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Statistical_power" class="mw-redirect" title="Statistical power">Statistical power</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Survey_methodology" title="Survey methodology">Survey methodology</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Sampling_(statistics)" title="Sampling (statistics)">Sampling</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cluster_sampling" title="Cluster sampling">Cluster</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stratified_sampling" title="Stratified sampling">Stratified</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Opinion_poll" title="Opinion poll">Opinion poll</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Questionnaire" title="Questionnaire">Questionnaire</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Standard_error" title="Standard error">Standard error</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Experiment" title="Experiment">Controlled experiments</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Blocking_(statistics)" title="Blocking (statistics)">Blocking</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Factorial_experiment" title="Factorial experiment">Factorial experiment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Interaction_(statistics)" title="Interaction (statistics)">Interaction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Random_assignment" title="Random assignment">Random assignment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Randomized_controlled_trial" title="Randomized controlled trial">Randomized controlled trial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Randomized_experiment" title="Randomized experiment">Randomized experiment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Scientific_control" title="Scientific control">Scientific control</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em">Adaptive designs</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Adaptive_clinical_trial" class="mw-redirect" title="Adaptive clinical trial">Adaptive clinical trial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stochastic_approximation" title="Stochastic approximation">Stochastic approximation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Up-and-Down_Designs" class="mw-redirect" title="Up-and-Down Designs">Up-and-down designs</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Observational_study" title="Observational study">Observational studies</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cohort_study" title="Cohort study">Cohort study</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cross-sectional_study" title="Cross-sectional study">Cross-sectional study</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Natural_experiment" title="Natural experiment">Natural experiment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Quasi-experiment" title="Quasi-experiment">Quasi-experiment</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible uncollapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Statistical_inference" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Statistical_inference" title="Statistical inference">Statistical inference</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Statistical_theory" title="Statistical theory">Statistical theory</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Population_(statistics)" class="mw-redirect" title="Population (statistics)">Population</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Statistic" title="Statistic">Statistic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Probability_distribution" title="Probability distribution">Probability distribution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sampling_distribution" title="Sampling distribution">Sampling distribution</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Order_statistic" title="Order statistic">Order statistic</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Empirical_distribution_function" title="Empirical distribution function">Empirical distribution</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Density_estimation" title="Density estimation">Density estimation</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Statistical_model" title="Statistical model">Statistical model</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Model_specification" class="mw-redirect" title="Model specification">Model specification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Lp_space" title="Lp space">L<sup><i>p</i></sup> space</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Statistical_parameter" title="Statistical parameter">Parameter</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Location_parameter" title="Location parameter">location</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Scale_parameter" title="Scale parameter">scale</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shape_parameter" title="Shape parameter">shape</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Parametric_statistics" title="Parametric statistics">Parametric family</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Likelihood_function" title="Likelihood function">Likelihood</a> <a href="/wiki/Monotone_likelihood_ratio" title="Monotone likelihood ratio"><span style="font-size:85%;">(monotone)</span></a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Location%E2%80%93scale_family" title="Location–scale family">Location–scale family</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Exponential_family" title="Exponential family">Exponential family</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Completeness_(statistics)" title="Completeness (statistics)">Completeness</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sufficient_statistic" title="Sufficient statistic">Sufficiency</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Plug-in_principle" class="mw-redirect" title="Plug-in principle">Statistical functional</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Bootstrapping_(statistics)" title="Bootstrapping (statistics)">Bootstrap</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/U-statistic" title="U-statistic">U</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/V-statistic" title="V-statistic">V</a></li></ul></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Optimal decision</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Loss_function" title="Loss function">loss function</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Efficiency_(statistics)" title="Efficiency (statistics)">Efficiency</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Statistical_distance" title="Statistical distance">Statistical distance</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Divergence_(statistics)" title="Divergence (statistics)">divergence</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Asymptotic_theory_(statistics)" title="Asymptotic theory (statistics)">Asymptotics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Robust_statistics" title="Robust statistics">Robustness</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Frequentist_inference" title="Frequentist inference">Frequentist inference</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;"><a href="/wiki/Point_estimation" title="Point estimation">Point estimation</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Estimating_equations" title="Estimating equations">Estimating equations</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Maximum_likelihood" class="mw-redirect" title="Maximum likelihood">Maximum likelihood</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Method_of_moments_(statistics)" title="Method of moments (statistics)">Method of moments</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/M-estimator" title="M-estimator">M-estimator</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Minimum_distance_estimation" class="mw-redirect" title="Minimum distance estimation">Minimum distance</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bias_of_an_estimator" title="Bias of an estimator">Unbiased estimators</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Minimum-variance_unbiased_estimator" title="Minimum-variance unbiased estimator">Mean-unbiased minimum-variance</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Rao%E2%80%93Blackwell_theorem" title="Rao–Blackwell theorem">Rao–Blackwellization</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Lehmann%E2%80%93Scheff%C3%A9_theorem" title="Lehmann–Scheffé theorem">Lehmann–Scheffé theorem</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Median-unbiased_estimator" class="mw-redirect" title="Median-unbiased estimator">Median unbiased</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Plug-in_principle" class="mw-redirect" title="Plug-in principle">Plug-in</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;"><a href="/wiki/Interval_estimation" title="Interval estimation">Interval estimation</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Confidence_interval" title="Confidence interval">Confidence interval</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pivotal_quantity" title="Pivotal quantity">Pivot</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Likelihood_interval" class="mw-redirect" title="Likelihood interval">Likelihood interval</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Prediction_interval" title="Prediction interval">Prediction interval</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tolerance_interval" title="Tolerance interval">Tolerance interval</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Resampling_(statistics)" title="Resampling (statistics)">Resampling</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Bootstrapping_(statistics)" title="Bootstrapping (statistics)">Bootstrap</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Jackknife_resampling" title="Jackknife resampling">Jackknife</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;"><a href="/wiki/Statistical_hypothesis_testing" class="mw-redirect" title="Statistical hypothesis testing">Testing hypotheses</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/One-_and_two-tailed_tests" title="One- and two-tailed tests">1- & 2-tails</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Power_(statistics)" title="Power (statistics)">Power</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Uniformly_most_powerful_test" title="Uniformly most powerful test">Uniformly most powerful test</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Permutation_test" title="Permutation test">Permutation test</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Randomization_test" class="mw-redirect" title="Randomization test">Randomization test</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multiple_comparisons" class="mw-redirect" title="Multiple comparisons">Multiple comparisons</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;"><a href="/wiki/Parametric_statistics" title="Parametric statistics">Parametric tests</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Likelihood-ratio_test" title="Likelihood-ratio test">Likelihood-ratio</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Score_test" title="Score test">Score/Lagrange multiplier</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wald_test" title="Wald test">Wald</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/List_of_statistical_tests" title="List of statistical tests">Specific tests</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Z-test" title="Z-test"><i>Z</i>-test <span style="font-size:85%;">(normal)</span></a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Student%27s_t-test" title="Student's t-test">Student's <i>t</i>-test</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/F-test" title="F-test"><i>F</i>-test</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;"><a href="/wiki/Goodness_of_fit" title="Goodness of fit">Goodness of fit</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Chi-squared_test" title="Chi-squared test">Chi-squared</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/G-test" title="G-test"><i>G</i>-test</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Kolmogorov%E2%80%93Smirnov_test" title="Kolmogorov–Smirnov test">Kolmogorov–Smirnov</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Anderson%E2%80%93Darling_test" title="Anderson–Darling test">Anderson–Darling</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Lilliefors_test" title="Lilliefors test">Lilliefors</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Jarque%E2%80%93Bera_test" title="Jarque–Bera test">Jarque–Bera</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shapiro%E2%80%93Wilk_test" title="Shapiro–Wilk test">Normality <span style="font-size:85%;">(Shapiro–Wilk)</span></a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Likelihood-ratio_test" title="Likelihood-ratio test">Likelihood-ratio test</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Model_selection" title="Model selection">Model selection</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cross-validation_(statistics)" title="Cross-validation (statistics)">Cross validation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Akaike_information_criterion" title="Akaike information criterion">AIC</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bayesian_information_criterion" title="Bayesian information criterion">BIC</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;"><a href="/wiki/Rank_statistics" class="mw-redirect" title="Rank statistics">Rank statistics</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Sign_test" title="Sign test">Sign</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Sample_median" class="mw-redirect" title="Sample median">Sample median</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wilcoxon_signed-rank_test" title="Wilcoxon signed-rank test">Signed rank <span style="font-size:85%;">(Wilcoxon)</span></a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Hodges%E2%80%93Lehmann_estimator" title="Hodges–Lehmann estimator">Hodges–Lehmann estimator</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mann%E2%80%93Whitney_U_test" title="Mann–Whitney U test">Rank sum <span style="font-size:85%;">(Mann–Whitney)</span></a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nonparametric_statistics" title="Nonparametric statistics">Nonparametric</a> <a href="/wiki/Analysis_of_variance" title="Analysis of variance">anova</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Kruskal%E2%80%93Wallis_test" title="Kruskal–Wallis test">1-way <span style="font-size:85%;">(Kruskal–Wallis)</span></a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Friedman_test" title="Friedman test">2-way <span style="font-size:85%;">(Friedman)</span></a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Jonckheere%27s_trend_test" title="Jonckheere's trend test">Ordered alternative <span style="font-size:85%;">(Jonckheere–Terpstra)</span></a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Van_der_Waerden_test" title="Van der Waerden test">Van der Waerden test</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Bayesian_inference" title="Bayesian inference">Bayesian inference</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Bayesian_probability" title="Bayesian probability">Bayesian probability</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Prior_probability" title="Prior probability">prior</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Posterior_probability" title="Posterior probability">posterior</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Credible_interval" title="Credible interval">Credible interval</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bayes_factor" title="Bayes factor">Bayes factor</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bayes_estimator" title="Bayes estimator">Bayesian estimator</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Maximum_a_posteriori_estimation" title="Maximum a posteriori estimation">Maximum posterior estimator</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="CorrelationRegression_analysis" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><div class="hlist"><ul><li><a href="/wiki/Correlation_and_dependence" class="mw-redirect" title="Correlation and dependence">Correlation</a></li><li><a href="/wiki/Regression_analysis" title="Regression analysis">Regression analysis</a></li></ul></div></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Correlation_and_dependence" class="mw-redirect" title="Correlation and dependence">Correlation</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient" class="mw-redirect" title="Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient">Pearson product-moment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Partial_correlation" title="Partial correlation">Partial correlation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Confounding" title="Confounding">Confounding variable</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination" title="Coefficient of determination">Coefficient of determination</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Regression_analysis" title="Regression analysis">Regression analysis</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Errors_and_residuals" title="Errors and residuals">Errors and residuals</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Regression_validation" title="Regression validation">Regression validation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mixed_model" title="Mixed model">Mixed effects models</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Simultaneous_equations_model" title="Simultaneous equations model">Simultaneous equations models</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multivariate_adaptive_regression_splines" class="mw-redirect" title="Multivariate adaptive regression splines">Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Linear_regression" title="Linear regression">Linear regression</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Simple_linear_regression" title="Simple linear regression">Simple linear regression</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ordinary_least_squares" title="Ordinary least squares">Ordinary least squares</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/General_linear_model" title="General linear model">General linear model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bayesian_linear_regression" title="Bayesian linear regression">Bayesian regression</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em">Non-standard predictors</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Nonlinear_regression" title="Nonlinear regression">Nonlinear regression</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nonparametric_regression" title="Nonparametric regression">Nonparametric</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Semiparametric_regression" title="Semiparametric regression">Semiparametric</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Isotonic_regression" title="Isotonic regression">Isotonic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Robust_regression" title="Robust regression">Robust</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heteroscedasticity" class="mw-redirect" title="Heteroscedasticity">Heteroscedasticity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Homoscedasticity" class="mw-redirect" title="Homoscedasticity">Homoscedasticity</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Generalized_linear_model" title="Generalized linear model">Generalized linear model</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Exponential_family" title="Exponential family">Exponential families</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Logistic_regression" title="Logistic regression">Logistic <span style="font-size:85%;">(Bernoulli)</span></a> / <a href="/wiki/Binomial_regression" title="Binomial regression">Binomial</a> / <a href="/wiki/Poisson_regression" title="Poisson regression">Poisson regressions</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Partition_of_sums_of_squares" title="Partition of sums of squares">Partition of variance</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Analysis_of_variance" title="Analysis of variance">Analysis of variance (ANOVA, anova)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Analysis_of_covariance" title="Analysis of covariance">Analysis of covariance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multivariate_analysis_of_variance" title="Multivariate analysis of variance">Multivariate ANOVA</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Degrees_of_freedom_(statistics)" title="Degrees of freedom (statistics)">Degrees of freedom</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Categorical_/_Multivariate_/_Time-series_/_Survival_analysis" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Categorical_variable" title="Categorical variable">Categorical</a> / <a href="/wiki/Multivariate_statistics" title="Multivariate statistics">Multivariate</a> / <a href="/wiki/Time_series" title="Time series">Time-series</a> / <a href="/wiki/Survival_analysis" title="Survival analysis">Survival analysis</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Categorical_variable" title="Categorical variable">Categorical</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cohen%27s_kappa" title="Cohen's kappa">Cohen's kappa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Contingency_table" title="Contingency table">Contingency table</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Graphical_model" title="Graphical model">Graphical model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Poisson_regression" title="Poisson regression">Log-linear model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/McNemar%27s_test" title="McNemar's test">McNemar's test</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cochran%E2%80%93Mantel%E2%80%93Haenszel_statistics" title="Cochran–Mantel–Haenszel statistics">Cochran–Mantel–Haenszel statistics</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Multivariate_statistics" title="Multivariate statistics">Multivariate</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/General_linear_model" title="General linear model">Regression</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multivariate_analysis_of_variance" title="Multivariate analysis of variance">Manova</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Principal_component_analysis" title="Principal component analysis">Principal components</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Canonical_correlation" title="Canonical correlation">Canonical correlation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Linear_discriminant_analysis" title="Linear discriminant analysis">Discriminant analysis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cluster_analysis" title="Cluster analysis">Cluster analysis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Statistical_classification" title="Statistical classification">Classification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Structural_equation_modeling" title="Structural equation modeling">Structural equation model</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Factor_analysis" title="Factor analysis">Factor analysis</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multivariate_distribution" class="mw-redirect" title="Multivariate distribution">Multivariate distributions</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Elliptical_distribution" title="Elliptical distribution">Elliptical distributions</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Multivariate_normal_distribution" title="Multivariate normal distribution">Normal</a></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Time_series" title="Time series">Time-series</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;">General</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Decomposition_of_time_series" title="Decomposition of time series">Decomposition</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Trend_estimation" class="mw-redirect" title="Trend estimation">Trend</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stationary_process" title="Stationary process">Stationarity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Seasonal_adjustment" title="Seasonal adjustment">Seasonal adjustment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Exponential_smoothing" title="Exponential smoothing">Exponential smoothing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cointegration" title="Cointegration">Cointegration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Structural_break" title="Structural break">Structural break</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Granger_causality" title="Granger causality">Granger causality</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;">Specific tests</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Dickey%E2%80%93Fuller_test" title="Dickey–Fuller test">Dickey–Fuller</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Johansen_test" title="Johansen test">Johansen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ljung%E2%80%93Box_test" title="Ljung–Box test">Q-statistic <span style="font-size:85%;">(Ljung–Box)</span></a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Durbin%E2%80%93Watson_statistic" title="Durbin–Watson statistic">Durbin–Watson</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Breusch%E2%80%93Godfrey_test" title="Breusch–Godfrey test">Breusch–Godfrey</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;"><a href="/wiki/Time_domain" title="Time domain">Time domain</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Autocorrelation" title="Autocorrelation">Autocorrelation (ACF)</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Partial_autocorrelation_function" title="Partial autocorrelation function">partial (PACF)</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cross-correlation" title="Cross-correlation">Cross-correlation (XCF)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Autoregressive%E2%80%93moving-average_model" class="mw-redirect" title="Autoregressive–moving-average model">ARMA model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Box%E2%80%93Jenkins_method" title="Box–Jenkins method">ARIMA model <span style="font-size:85%;">(Box–Jenkins)</span></a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Autoregressive_conditional_heteroskedasticity" title="Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity">Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Vector_autoregression" title="Vector autoregression">Vector autoregression (VAR)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;"><a href="/wiki/Frequency_domain" title="Frequency domain">Frequency domain</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Spectral_density_estimation" title="Spectral density estimation">Spectral density estimation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fourier_analysis" title="Fourier analysis">Fourier analysis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Least-squares_spectral_analysis" title="Least-squares spectral analysis">Least-squares spectral analysis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wavelet" title="Wavelet">Wavelet</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Whittle_likelihood" title="Whittle likelihood">Whittle likelihood</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Survival_analysis" title="Survival analysis">Survival</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;"><a href="/wiki/Survival_function" title="Survival function">Survival function</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Kaplan%E2%80%93Meier_estimator" title="Kaplan–Meier estimator">Kaplan–Meier estimator (product limit)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Proportional_hazards_model" title="Proportional hazards model">Proportional hazards models</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Accelerated_failure_time_model" title="Accelerated failure time model">Accelerated failure time (AFT) model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/First-hitting-time_model" title="First-hitting-time model">First hitting time</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;"><a href="/wiki/Failure_rate" title="Failure rate">Hazard function</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Nelson%E2%80%93Aalen_estimator" title="Nelson–Aalen estimator">Nelson–Aalen estimator</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%;font-weight:normal;">Test</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Log-rank_test" class="mw-redirect" title="Log-rank test">Log-rank test</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Applications" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/List_of_fields_of_application_of_statistics" title="List of fields of application of statistics">Applications</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Biostatistics" title="Biostatistics">Biostatistics</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Bioinformatics" title="Bioinformatics">Bioinformatics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Clinical_trial" title="Clinical trial">Clinical trials</a> / <a href="/wiki/Clinical_study_design" title="Clinical study design">studies</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Epidemiology" title="Epidemiology">Epidemiology</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Medical_statistics" title="Medical statistics">Medical statistics</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Engineering_statistics" title="Engineering statistics">Engineering statistics</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Chemometrics" title="Chemometrics">Chemometrics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Methods_engineering" title="Methods engineering">Methods engineering</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Probabilistic_design" title="Probabilistic design">Probabilistic design</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Statistical_process_control" title="Statistical process control">Process</a> / <a href="/wiki/Quality_control" title="Quality control">quality control</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reliability_engineering" title="Reliability engineering">Reliability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/System_identification" title="System identification">System identification</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Social_statistics" title="Social statistics">Social statistics</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Actuarial_science" title="Actuarial science">Actuarial science</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Census" title="Census">Census</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Crime_statistics" title="Crime statistics">Crime statistics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Demographic_statistics" title="Demographic statistics">Demography</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Econometrics" title="Econometrics">Econometrics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Jurimetrics" title="Jurimetrics">Jurimetrics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_accounts" title="National accounts">National accounts</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Official_statistics" title="Official statistics">Official statistics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Population_statistics" class="mw-redirect" title="Population statistics">Population statistics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Psychometrics" title="Psychometrics">Psychometrics</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:12.5em"><a href="/wiki/Spatial_analysis" title="Spatial analysis">Spatial statistics</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cartography" title="Cartography">Cartography</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Environmental_statistics" title="Environmental statistics">Environmental statistics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Geographic_information_system" title="Geographic information system">Geographic information system</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Geostatistics" title="Geostatistics">Geostatistics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Kriging" title="Kriging">Kriging</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div> <ul><li><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span title="Category"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/96/Symbol_category_class.svg/16px-Symbol_category_class.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="16" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/96/Symbol_category_class.svg/23px-Symbol_category_class.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/96/Symbol_category_class.svg/31px-Symbol_category_class.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="180" data-file-height="185" /></span></span><b><a href="/wiki/Category:Statistics" title="Category:Statistics">Category</a></b></li> <li><b><span class="nowrap"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Nuvola_apps_edu_mathematics_blue-p.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="icon" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3e/Nuvola_apps_edu_mathematics_blue-p.svg/28px-Nuvola_apps_edu_mathematics_blue-p.svg.png" decoding="async" width="28" height="28" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3e/Nuvola_apps_edu_mathematics_blue-p.svg/42px-Nuvola_apps_edu_mathematics_blue-p.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3e/Nuvola_apps_edu_mathematics_blue-p.svg/56px-Nuvola_apps_edu_mathematics_blue-p.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="128" data-file-height="128" /></a></span> </span><a href="/wiki/Portal:Mathematics" title="Portal:Mathematics">Mathematics portal</a></b></li> <li><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span title="Commons page"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4a/Commons-logo.svg/12px-Commons-logo.svg.png" decoding="async" width="12" height="16" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4a/Commons-logo.svg/18px-Commons-logo.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4a/Commons-logo.svg/24px-Commons-logo.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1024" data-file-height="1376" /></span></span><b><a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Statistics" class="extiw" title="commons:Category:Statistics">Commons</a></b></li> <li><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span title="WikiProject"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/37/People_icon.svg/16px-People_icon.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="16" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/37/People_icon.svg/24px-People_icon.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/37/People_icon.svg/32px-People_icon.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="100" data-file-height="100" /></span></span> <b><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:WikiProject_Statistics" title="Wikipedia:WikiProject Statistics">WikiProject</a></b></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></div> <div class="navbox-styles"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236075235"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1038841319">.mw-parser-output .tooltip-dotted{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}</style></div><div role="navigation" class="navbox authority-control" aria-label="Navbox" style="padding:3px"><table class="nowraplinks hlist navbox-inner" style="border-spacing:0;background:transparent;color:inherit"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Help:Authority_control" title="Help:Authority control">Authority control databases</a>: National <span class="mw-valign-text-top noprint" typeof="mw:File/Frameless"><a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4335500#identifiers" title="Edit this at Wikidata"><img alt="Edit this at Wikidata" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/8/8a/OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg/10px-OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg.png" decoding="async" width="10" height="10" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/8/8a/OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg/15px-OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/8/8a/OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg/20px-OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="20" data-file-height="20" /></a></span></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"><ul><li><span class="uid"><span class="rt-commentedText tooltip tooltip-dotted" title="optimální rozhodování"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://aleph.nkp.cz/F/?func=find-c&local_base=aut&ccl_term=ica=ph123770&CON_LNG=ENG">Czech Republic</a></span></span></li></ul></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div>    </div><noscript><img src="https://login.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:CentralAutoLogin/start?type=1x1" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border: none; position: absolute;"></noscript> <div class="printfooter" data-nosnippet="">Retrieved from "<a dir="ltr" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Optimal_decision&oldid=1249708258">https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Optimal_decision&oldid=1249708258</a>"</div></div> <div id="catlinks" class="catlinks" data-mw="interface"><div id="mw-normal-catlinks" class="mw-normal-catlinks"><a href="/wiki/Help:Category" title="Help:Category">Category</a>: <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Category:Optimal_decisions" title="Category:Optimal decisions">Optimal decisions</a></li></ul></div><div id="mw-hidden-catlinks" class="mw-hidden-catlinks mw-hidden-cats-hidden">Hidden categories: <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Category:Articles_with_short_description" title="Category:Articles with short description">Articles with short description</a></li><li><a href="/wiki/Category:Short_description_matches_Wikidata" title="Category:Short description matches Wikidata">Short description matches Wikidata</a></li><li><a href="/wiki/Category:Articles_lacking_in-text_citations_from_September_2018" title="Category:Articles lacking in-text citations from September 2018">Articles lacking in-text citations from September 2018</a></li><li><a href="/wiki/Category:All_articles_lacking_in-text_citations" title="Category:All articles lacking in-text citations">All articles lacking in-text citations</a></li></ul></div></div> </div> </main> </div> <div class="mw-footer-container"> <footer id="footer" class="mw-footer" > <ul id="footer-info"> <li id="footer-info-lastmod"> This page was last edited on 6 October 2024, at 12:09<span class="anonymous-show"> (UTC)</span>.</li> <li id="footer-info-copyright">Text is available under the <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Text_of_the_Creative_Commons_Attribution-ShareAlike_4.0_International_License" title="Wikipedia:Text of the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License</a>; additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the <a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Terms_of_Use" class="extiw" title="foundation:Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Terms of Use">Terms of Use</a> and <a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Privacy_policy" class="extiw" title="foundation:Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Privacy policy">Privacy Policy</a>. Wikipedia® is a registered trademark of the <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://wikimediafoundation.org/">Wikimedia Foundation, Inc.</a>, a non-profit organization.</li> </ul> <ul id="footer-places"> <li id="footer-places-privacy"><a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Privacy_policy">Privacy policy</a></li> <li id="footer-places-about"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:About">About Wikipedia</a></li> <li id="footer-places-disclaimers"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:General_disclaimer">Disclaimers</a></li> <li id="footer-places-contact"><a href="//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Contact_us">Contact Wikipedia</a></li> <li id="footer-places-wm-codeofconduct"><a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Universal_Code_of_Conduct">Code of Conduct</a></li> <li id="footer-places-developers"><a href="https://developer.wikimedia.org">Developers</a></li> <li id="footer-places-statslink"><a href="https://stats.wikimedia.org/#/en.wikipedia.org">Statistics</a></li> <li id="footer-places-cookiestatement"><a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Cookie_statement">Cookie statement</a></li> <li id="footer-places-mobileview"><a href="//en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Optimal_decision&mobileaction=toggle_view_mobile" class="noprint stopMobileRedirectToggle">Mobile view</a></li> </ul> <ul id="footer-icons" class="noprint"> <li id="footer-copyrightico"><a href="https://wikimediafoundation.org/" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button--enabled"><img src="/static/images/footer/wikimedia-button.svg" width="84" height="29" alt="Wikimedia Foundation" loading="lazy"></a></li> <li id="footer-poweredbyico"><a href="https://www.mediawiki.org/" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button--enabled"><img src="/w/resources/assets/poweredby_mediawiki.svg" alt="Powered by MediaWiki" width="88" height="31" loading="lazy"></a></li> </ul> </footer> </div> </div> </div> <div class="vector-settings" id="p-dock-bottom"> <ul></ul> </div><script>(RLQ=window.RLQ||[]).push(function(){mw.config.set({"wgHostname":"mw-web.codfw.main-f69cdc8f6-zdzzs","wgBackendResponseTime":142,"wgPageParseReport":{"limitreport":{"cputime":"0.368","walltime":"0.624","ppvisitednodes":{"value":1654,"limit":1000000},"postexpandincludesize":{"value":150909,"limit":2097152},"templateargumentsize":{"value":1537,"limit":2097152},"expansiondepth":{"value":14,"limit":100},"expensivefunctioncount":{"value":2,"limit":500},"unstrip-depth":{"value":0,"limit":20},"unstrip-size":{"value":20010,"limit":5000000},"entityaccesscount":{"value":1,"limit":400},"timingprofile":["100.00% 399.401 1 -total"," 38.47% 153.666 1 Template:Statistics"," 37.76% 150.814 1 Template:Navbox_with_collapsible_groups"," 22.16% 88.495 1 Template:Short_description"," 14.12% 56.397 1 Template:No_footnotes"," 12.97% 51.815 2 Template:Isbn"," 12.52% 50.010 1 Template:Ambox"," 12.24% 48.886 2 Template:Pagetype"," 12.01% 47.981 1 Template:Authority_control"," 10.01% 39.984 2 Template:Catalog_lookup_link"]},"scribunto":{"limitreport-timeusage":{"value":"0.201","limit":"10.000"},"limitreport-memusage":{"value":3579109,"limit":52428800},"limitreport-logs":"table#1 {\n}\n"},"cachereport":{"origin":"mw-api-ext.eqiad.main-6696b4cc84-v8lpm","timestamp":"20241122143126","ttl":2592000,"transientcontent":false}}});});</script> <script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"Article","name":"Optimal decision","url":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Optimal_decision","sameAs":"http:\/\/www.wikidata.org\/entity\/Q4335500","mainEntity":"http:\/\/www.wikidata.org\/entity\/Q4335500","author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Contributors to Wikimedia projects"},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Wikimedia Foundation, Inc.","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/www.wikimedia.org\/static\/images\/wmf-hor-googpub.png"}},"datePublished":"2008-03-19T23:26:51Z","dateModified":"2024-10-06T12:09:32Z","headline":"decision that leads to the best outcome in decision theory"}</script> </body> </html>