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type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","author":{"@type":"Person","name":"Jim Malo"},"dateModified":"2024-11-25T18:00:00+00:00","datePublished":"2024-11-25T18:00:00+00:00","description":"The new forecast breaks from other predictions that the market will rise, as higher rates for longer take a toll on home owners and on buyers’ affordability limits.","headline":"Where property prices will fall in 2025 – even if there is a rate 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data-testid="category"><a title="News" href="/property/news">News</a></li><li class="_1pMb9" data-testid="tag-name"><a title="Property prices" href="/topic/property-prices-60x">Property prices</a></li></ul><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://www.watoday.com.au/property","name":"Property"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://www.watoday.com.au/property/news","name":"News"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://www.watoday.com.au/topic/property-prices-60x","name":"Property prices"}}]}</script></div><h1 data-testid="headline" itemProp="headline">Where property prices will fall in 2025 – even if there is a rate cut</h1></div></div></header><section class="_3OhA4"><div class="_2h56q _2bGxr"><div class="_3J1te"><h5 class="_3-xPQ"><span class="_3pGt1">By </span><span><span data-testid="byline"><a href="/by/jim-malo-gt02ms" title="Articles by Jim Malo">Jim Malo</a></span></span></h5><div class=""> <span class="_2xetH"><time class="_2_zR-" data-testid="datetime" dateTime="2024-11-26T02:00:00+08:00">November 26, 2024 — 2.00am</time></span></div></div></div><div class="_2CSKo noPrint"><div class="_1KqZ_"><div class="hLTvJ"><button aria-checked="false" aria-describedby="saveTooltip" aria-label="Save article to read later" class="_31ZN0" role="switch" type="button"><svg aria-hidden="true" class="QMY9O _11R7m" focusable="false" height="1em" width="1em"><use xlink:href="#icon-save"></use></svg><span class="_3-fU6">Save</span></button><div aria-hidden="true" class="_1lwFz uXbxr" id="saveTooltip" role="tooltip"><button>Log in</button>,<!-- --> <a data-testid="login-register" href="https://watoday.myfairfax.com.au/channel/cWvEleexy48f-PI5-jlBnw/members/signups/new?callback_uri=">register</a> <!-- -->or <a href="https://subscribe.watoday.com.au/?promote_channel=HI_HL_GNL">subscribe</a> <!-- -->to save articles for later.</div><div><div aria-hidden="true" class="_1lwFz WUf_a _1pHo1" id="onboardingTooltip" role="tooltip"><h3>Save articles for later</h3><p>Add articles to your saved list and come back to them any time.</p><button class="_2YSi8 _17BTN _3_hLE" data-ffx-event-action="cta click" data-ffx-event-category="save onboarding" data-ffx-event-label="got it - part 1" data-ffx-hittype="event">Got it</button></div></div></div><div class="_2Cn91"><div class="_2KkCz"><button class="_30X7v _2-NUy" data-ffx-event-action="cta click" data-ffx-event-category="component" data-ffx-event-label="font size normal" data-ffx-event-value="0" data-ffx-hittype="event">Normal text size</button><button class="_3Rq_0" data-ffx-event-action="cta click" data-ffx-event-category="component" data-ffx-event-label="font size large" data-ffx-event-value="0" data-ffx-hittype="event">Larger text size</button><button class="_3VkdU" data-ffx-event-action="cta click" data-ffx-event-category="component" data-ffx-event-label="font 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property price across Australia is predicted to rise by 1 to 4 per cent, SQM Research’s <em>Housing Boom and Bust Report</em> <em>2025</em>, published on Monday, forecast.</p><div class="_6ebFV noPrint"><div class="_15gOL AkZ3C"><iframe class="_16-Dw AkZ3C LntZY" data-testid="embed-iframe" frameBorder="0" height="157" data-src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vHGk9/2/" title="Embedded iFrame"></iframe></div></div><p>While that increase would be driven by smaller capitals, Sydney and Melbourne are expected to decline further, with both forecast to fall between 1 and 5 per cent over the year.</p><p>It assumed the Reserve Bank would cut the cash rate by between 0.25 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points by the middle of the year.</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>SQM Research founder Louis Christopher said the small-to-moderate rise in the capital city average would be thanks to booming property markets in the nation’s smaller capitals.</p><p>“That will be driven by some pretty solid gains in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide and offset by some moderate price falls in Sydney and Melbourne,” he said. “The reason is right now we believe Sydney and Melbourne house prices are falling as we speak. The expectation is they’ll keep falling until we get that rate cut.”</p><figure class="_3ujPS _3x3-4 RMwbY _2XZQH" data-testid="image"><div aria-label="enlarge image" class="_1lwW_" role="button" tabindex="0"><picture class=""><source media="(min-width: 1024px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_0.9788%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/c4e734beeccb1a90e41a804e2af1714b5adb3d2d, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_1.9577%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/c4e734beeccb1a90e41a804e2af1714b5adb3d2d 2x" height="494" width="740"/><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_1.0159%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/c4e734beeccb1a90e41a804e2af1714b5adb3d2d, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_2.0317%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/c4e734beeccb1a90e41a804e2af1714b5adb3d2d 2x" height="512" width="768"/><img alt="The report suggests house prices in Sydney and Melbourne would continue to fall until soon after a cash rate cut. " src="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_0.7725%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/c4e734beeccb1a90e41a804e2af1714b5adb3d2d" height="390" width="584" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_0.7725%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/c4e734beeccb1a90e41a804e2af1714b5adb3d2d, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_1.545%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/c4e734beeccb1a90e41a804e2af1714b5adb3d2d 2x"/></picture></div><figcaption class="_3CZmy"><p><span class="_2Li3P">The report suggests house prices in Sydney and Melbourne would continue to fall until soon after a cash rate cut. </span><cite class="ojLwA"><span class="_30ROC">Credit: </span>Dion Georgopoulos</cite></p></figcaption></figure><p>Christopher predicted that both Sydney and Melbourne would record an overall decline, even if they lifted after a rate cut. Accumulating listings, distressed sales and an unaffordable market would weigh on prices, he said.</p><p>“There will probably be a lag of two to three months before that happens. And most likely towards this time next year we will be recording rising prices in Sydney and Melbourne, but it won’t offset the falls we’ll see at the start of the year.”</p></div></div></div></section><div class="_1FVfK"><div class="container"><div class="adWrapper _2UMq- noPrint" data-testid="ad"><small class="_3ToRr">Advertisement</small><div class="" id="adspot-728x90_970x250-pos99-desktop"></div></div></div></div><section class="vPaWe" data-testid="article-body-bottom"><div class="_1ysFk"><div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>Years of high rates were pushing some home owners and investors to sell, Christopher said, which would push prices down.</p><div class="ymInT _3uJpn _3by58 noPrint"><span class="_2wzgv D5idv _3lVFK"><span class="_29Qt8"></span><span class="_3qqDc">Loading</span></span></div><p>“We’re watching very closely the rise in distressed-listings activity,” he said. “It’s one of the key drivers.”</p><p>Perth was tipped to outperform the rest of the country, Christopher said, with home prices forecast to rise by 14 to 19 per cent. Brisbane would next see the most growth, rising between 9 and 14 per cent. It would be followed by Adelaide, up 8 to 13 per cent.</p><p>AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina said dwelling prices could grow slightly more than SQM’s prediction.</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>“Our forecast is for 5 per cent next year, though I do agree with the divergence [between Sydney and Melbourne and other capitals],” she said.</p><p>Mousina didn’t think Sydney house prices would be down over the year, though.</p><p>“It’s hard to see Sydney prices falling [across the year]. I think small price falls in Melbourne are reasonable to expect,” she said. “In Sydney, I think we still have a situation of undersupply basically.”</p><p>CBA chief economist Gareth Aird agreed with Mousina’s prediction of 5 per cent growth nationally but assumed the RBA would cut the cash rate by 1 percentage point over 2025.</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>He said unaffordable house prices would weigh on both Sydney and Melbourne, though he expected Sydney’s growth to outpace Melbourne’s.</p><div class="ymInT _3uJpn _3by58 noPrint"><span class="_2wzgv D5idv _3lVFK"><span class="_29Qt8"></span><span class="_3qqDc">Loading</span></span></div><p>“Sydney is the least affordable market in Australia … compared to the other capital cities, it stands out as being unaffordable,” Aird said.</p><p>“You do get fatigue creeping in and there’s only so much that house prices can outpace wage growth when you have high rates.”</p><p>Christopher said he expected strong price growth to continue in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide because they each were expected to have strong population growth, which would outpace new housing supply.</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>Perth, in particular, would outperform the rest of the country, he said.</p><p>“When we look at the leading indicators for Perth … there’s nothing to suggest trouble is brewing,” Christopher said. “If there is a correction coming in Perth, you first see it in the mining towns. And we’re not seeing any signs.”</p><p>Mousina agreed. “Perth will be the standout. That’s what it looks like at the moment, and just looking at some economic trends, it’s coming out on top.”</p><p>Christopher said any changes, or lack thereof, to the cash rate could make some difference to what house prices could do in 2025.</p><p>“Our second-most likely scenario mentioned is zero rate cut, and based on the recent language from the RBA, that’s the reason we believe there is a reasonable chance they don’t cut at all,” he said.</p></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>In this scenario, SQM predicted dwelling prices would either grow by up to 1 per cent nationally or fall by up to 3 per cent. 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new forecast breaks from other predictions that the market will rise, as higher rates for longer take a toll on home owners and on buyers\\u2019 affordability limits.\",\"allowComments\":true,\"body\":\"<p>Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne are tipped to fall by up to 5 per cent next year, even as Australia-wide home prices are expected to record a moderate rise.</p><p>The average capital-city property price across Australia is predicted to rise by 1 to 4 per cent, SQM Research\\u2019s <em>Housing Boom and Bust Report</em> <em>2025</em>, published on Monday, forecast.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"4801f8ff717067c85ebd6fa6a94199be3cd3a88c\\\"></x-placeholder><p>While that increase would be driven by smaller capitals, Sydney and Melbourne are expected to decline further, with both forecast to fall between 1 and 5 per cent over the year.</p><p>It assumed the Reserve Bank would cut the cash rate by between 0.25 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points by the middle of the year.</p><p>SQM Research founder Louis Christopher said the small-to-moderate rise in the capital city average would be thanks to booming property markets in the nation\\u2019s smaller capitals.</p><p>\\u201CThat will be driven by some pretty solid gains in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide and offset by some moderate price falls in Sydney and Melbourne,\\u201D he said. \\u201CThe reason is right now we believe Sydney and Melbourne house prices are falling as we speak. The expectation is they\\u2019ll keep falling until we get that rate cut.\\u201D</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"bd6fa1e43c740f47f44ffb781e84221ad1271f45\\\"></x-placeholder><p>Christopher predicted that both Sydney and Melbourne would record an overall decline, even if they lifted after a rate cut. Accumulating listings, distressed sales and an unaffordable market would weigh on prices, he said.</p><p>\\u201CThere will probably be a lag of two to three months before that happens. And most likely towards this time next year we will be recording rising prices in Sydney and Melbourne, but it won\\u2019t offset the falls we\\u2019ll see at the start of the year.\\u201D</p><p>Years of high rates were pushing some home owners and investors to sell, Christopher said, which would push prices down.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"bf22df9bb18d55d10056d38bc435f5135111851d\\\"></x-placeholder><p>\\u201CWe\\u2019re watching very closely the rise in distressed-listings activity,\\u201D he said. \\u201CIt\\u2019s one of the key drivers.\\u201D</p><p>Perth was tipped to outperform the rest of the country, Christopher said, with home prices forecast to rise by 14 to 19 per cent. Brisbane would next see the most growth, rising between 9 and 14 per cent. It would be followed by Adelaide, up 8 to 13 per cent.</p><p>AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina said dwelling prices could grow slightly more than SQM\\u2019s prediction.</p><p>\\u201COur forecast is for 5 per cent next year, though I do agree with the divergence [between Sydney and Melbourne and other capitals],\\u201D she said.</p><p>Mousina didn\\u2019t think Sydney house prices would be down over the year, though.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"975fd0c1da8af0e27d42325de92facc8f59c6ece\\\"></x-placeholder><p>\\u201CIt\\u2019s hard to see Sydney prices falling [across the year]. I think small price falls in Melbourne are reasonable to expect,\\u201D she said. \\u201CIn Sydney, I think we still have a situation of undersupply basically.\\u201D</p><p>CBA chief economist Gareth Aird agreed with Mousina\\u2019s prediction of 5 per cent growth nationally but assumed the RBA would cut the cash rate by 1 percentage point over 2025.</p><p>He said unaffordable house prices would weigh on both Sydney and Melbourne, though he expected Sydney\\u2019s growth to outpace Melbourne\\u2019s.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"4e790f904e95838a0682c9e043a99bd19be4788c\\\"></x-placeholder><p>\\u201CSydney is the least affordable market in Australia \\u2026 compared to the other capital cities, it stands out as being unaffordable,\\u201D Aird said.</p><p>\\u201CYou do get fatigue creeping in and there\\u2019s only so much that house prices can outpace wage growth when you have high rates.\\u201D</p><p>Christopher said he expected strong price growth to continue in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide because they each were expected to have strong population growth, which would outpace new housing supply.</p><p>Perth, in particular, would outperform the rest of the country, he said.</p><p>\\u201CWhen we look at the leading indicators for Perth \\u2026 there\\u2019s nothing to suggest trouble is brewing,\\u201D Christopher said. \\u201CIf there is a correction coming in Perth, you first see it in the mining towns. And we\\u2019re not seeing any signs.\\u201D</p><p>Mousina agreed. \\u201CPerth will be the standout. That\\u2019s what it looks like at the moment, and just looking at some economic trends, it\\u2019s coming out on top.\\u201D</p><p>Christopher said any changes, or lack thereof, to the cash rate could make some difference to what house prices could do in 2025.</p><p>\\u201COur second-most likely scenario mentioned is zero rate cut, and based on the recent language from the RBA, that\\u2019s the reason we believe there is a reasonable chance they don\\u2019t cut at all,\\u201D he said.</p><p>In this scenario, SQM predicted dwelling prices would either grow by up to 1 per cent nationally or fall by up to 3 per cent. They could fall as much as 7 per cent in Melbourne and 8 per cent in Sydney, and rise by as much as 11 per cent in Perth.</p>\",\"bodyPlaceholders\":{\"4801f8ff717067c85ebd6fa6a94199be3cd3a88c\":{\"data\":{\"displayWidth\":\"CONTENT\",\"url\":\"https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vHGk9/2/\"},\"type\":\"iframe\"},\"4e790f904e95838a0682c9e043a99bd19be4788c\":{\"data\":{\"id\":\"p5kq6z\"},\"type\":\"relatedStory\"},\"975fd0c1da8af0e27d42325de92facc8f59c6ece\":{\"data\":{\"listingId\":\"2019658770\"},\"type\":\"domainListing\"},\"bd6fa1e43c740f47f44ffb781e84221ad1271f45\":{\"data\":{\"altText\":\"\",\"animated\":false,\"aspect\":1.5,\"autoCrop\":false,\"caption\":\"The report suggests house prices in Sydney and Melbourne would continue to fall until soon after a cash rate cut. \",\"credit\":\"Dion 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