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.bde-section-36062-100{background-color:#616161;background-image:url(https://fideres.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Analytics-scaled.jpg);background-repeat:no-repeat;background-position:center center}.breakdance .bde-section-36062-100>.section-background-overlay{background:linear-gradient(99deg,rgba(0,0,0,1) 0%,rgba(0,0,0,0) 100%)}.breakdance .bde-section-36062-100>.section-background-overlay{opacity:0.7}</style><section class="bde-section-36062-100 bde-section"> <div class="section-background-overlay"></div> <div class="section-container"><h1 class="bde-heading-36062-101 bde-heading"> Keeping Your Options Open </h1><div class="bde-div-36062-120 bde-div"> <ul class="bde-post-meta-36062-102 bde-post-meta"> <li class="ee-postmeta-author-wrap"> <span class="ee-postmeta-author"><span class="ee-postmeta-before">By </span>Steffen Hennig</span> </li> <li class="ee-postmeta-custom-wrap"> <span class="ee-postmeta-custom">febrero 18, 2019</span> </li> <li class="ee-postmeta-custom-wrap"> <span class="ee-postmeta-custom">Research</span> </li> </ul><div class="bde-shortcode-36062-119 bde-shortcode"> <span class="span-reading-time rt-reading-time"><span class="rt-label rt-prefix">Reading Time:</span> <span class="rt-time"> 4</span> <span class="rt-label rt-postfix">minutes</span></span> </div> </div></div> </section><section class="bde-section-36062-103 bde-section"> <div class="section-container"><div class="bde-rich-text-36062-104 bde-rich-text breakdance-rich-text-styles"> <h2><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">Key Points</span></h2> <ul> <li><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">Class definition in securities fraud claims is often restricted to shares, neglecting the holders of options who are also damaged.</span></li> <li><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">Traded volume and therefore damages can be particularly large for publicly listed companies that attract highly leveraged speculative trading.</span></li> <li><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">In this Research Alert, we explore available methodologies for the estimation of damages for option holders, both on a class-wide and individual basis.</span></li> </ul> <h2><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">The Options Market</span></h2> <p><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">Options give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (<em>call option</em>) or sell (<em>put option</em>) an <em>underlying</em> asset at a specified <em>strike</em> price, prior to or on a specified expiration date (<em>maturity</em>). The price for buying an option is called the <em>premium</em>. The market for options, both in terms of premia and the traded value of contracts, has a volume of billions of dollars and continues to grow:</span><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light"><img loading="lazy" class="size-full wp-image-36581 aligncenter" src="https://fideres.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Chart-1_Monthly-Total-Exchange-Traded-Options-and-Premiums-US.png" alt="" width="2727" height="1361" /></span></p> <h6 style="text-align: center"><em><span style="font-size: 10pt">Source: The Option Clearing Corporation (https://www.theocc.com/webapps/monthly-volume-reports)</span></em></h6> <h2><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">What Affects the Price of an Option?</span></h2> <p><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">Option values are particularly sensitive to changes in market conditions. Sophisticated pricing models have to be used to quantifying these effects. The following inputs, ordered by importance for the vast majority of option contracts, are most relevant: underlying stock’s price, market’s expectation of future volatility (so-called <em>implied volatility</em>), underlying’s historical volatility, time to maturity, interest rates and dividends.</span></p> <p><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">New market information can materially affect these factors, especially the stock’s price and the implied volatility. The table below provides an example of how small changes in share prices and implied volatilities have large impacts on the price of put and call options.<sup>1</sup> These figures refer to an option with a maturity of six months and strike price of $100.</span></p> <table id="tablepress-64" class="tablepress tablepress-id-64"> <thead> <tr class="row-1 odd"> <th class="column-1">Share Price</th><th class="column-2">Implied Volatility</th><th class="column-3">Call Option Price</th><th class="column-4">Put Option Price</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody class="row-hover"> <tr class="row-2 even"> <td class="column-1">$100</td><td class="column-2">20%</td><td class="column-3">$6.63</td><td class="column-4">$5.08</td> </tr> <tr class="row-3 odd"> <td class="column-1">$110</td><td class="column-2">20%</td><td class="column-3">$13.70 (+107%)</td><td class="column-4">$1.72 (-66%)</td> </tr> <tr class="row-4 even"> <td class="column-1">$90</td><td class="column-2">20%</td><td class="column-3">$2.22 (-66%)</td><td class="column-4">$10.24 (+102%)</td> </tr> <tr class="row-5 odd"> <td class="column-1">$100</td><td class="column-2">30%</td><td class="column-3">$9.39 (+42%)</td><td class="column-4">$7.84 (+54%)</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h3><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light;font-size: 18pt">Options and Ongoing 10b-5 Cases</span></h3> <p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">Both sellers and buyers of options can suffer damages in securities fraud cases. Total option premia of large companies amount to hundreds of millions of dollars. This table summarizes option premia and trading volumes for selected companies that are currently defendants in 10b-5 class actions:</span></p> <table id="tablepress-65" class="tablepress tablepress-id-65"> <thead> <tr class="row-1 odd"> <th class="column-1">Company</th><th class="column-2">Case</th><th class="column-3">End of class period (month)</th><th class="column-4">Transaction in month at the end of the class period<sup>2</sup></th><th class="column-5">Total premiums in month at the end of class period </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody class="row-hover"> <tr class="row-2 even"> <td class="column-1"></td><td class="column-2"></td><td class="column-3"></td><td class="column-4"></td><td class="column-5">($ billions)<sup>3</sup></td> </tr> <tr class="row-3 odd"> <td rowspan="2" class="column-1">Facebook</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-2">Violation<br /> of Own Data Privacy Policies </td><td class="column-3">July</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-4">1,361</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-5">5</td> </tr> <tr class="row-4 even"> <td class="column-3">2018</td> </tr> <tr class="row-5 odd"> <td rowspan="2" class="column-1">Goldman Sachs</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-2">Misleading<br /> Publication of Financial Condition</td><td class="column-3">April</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-4">1,316</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-5">4.72</td> </tr> <tr class="row-6 even"> <td class="column-3">2010</td> </tr> <tr class="row-7 odd"> <td rowspan="2" class="column-1">Tesla</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-2">Misleading<br /> "Funding Secured" Tweet</td><td class="column-3">August</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-4">1,204</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-5">4.32</td> </tr> <tr class="row-8 even"> <td class="column-3">2018</td> </tr> <tr class="row-9 odd"> <td rowspan="2" class="column-1">Twitter</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-2">Misleading<br /> Statements About Business Prospects</td><td class="column-3">July</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-4">648</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-5">2.32</td> </tr> <tr class="row-10 even"> <td class="column-3">2015</td> </tr> <tr class="row-11 odd"> <td rowspan="2" class="column-1">Alibaba</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-2">Dubious<br /> or Illegal Business Practices</td><td class="column-3">January</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-4">603</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-5">2.16</td> </tr> <tr class="row-12 even"> <td class="column-3">2015</td> </tr> <tr class="row-13 odd"> <td rowspan="2" class="column-1">Exxon Mobil</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-2">False<br /> Reports on Climate Change Recognition</td><td class="column-3">January</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-4">212</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-5">0.76</td> </tr> <tr class="row-14 even"> <td class="column-3">2017</td> </tr> <tr class="row-15 odd"> <td rowspan="2" class="column-1">Johnson & Johnson</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-2">Asbestos<br /> in Baby Powder</td><td class="column-3">December</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-4">191</td><td rowspan="2" class="column-5">0.69</td> </tr> <tr class="row-16 even"> <td class="column-3">2018</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h6 style="text-align: center"><em><span style="font-size: 10pt">Source: CBOE</span></em></h6> <p><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">Note that these figures are based on an average premium of $432 per contract and an average of 8.3 contracts per transaction, drawn from the December 2018 Options Clearing Corporation report.</span></p> <h2><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">Illustrative Example: Johnson and Johnson</span></h2> <p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">This example shows the effect on option positions particularly clearly. In December 2018, Reuters reported that “Johnson & Johnson knew about asbestos in its baby powder for decades”.<sup>4</sup> JNJ share price dropped precipitously as soon as the news broke:</span></p> <h6 style="text-align: center"><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light"><em><img loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-36582" src="https://fideres.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/chart_2_Johnson-Johnson-JNJ-US-Stock-Price.png" alt="" width="2727" height="1361" /></em></span></h6> <h6 style="text-align: center"><em><span style="font-size: 10pt">Source: Bloomberg, Fideres’s analysis</span></em></h6> <p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">Option positions were heavily affected by this decline in share price.</span><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light"><em><img loading="lazy" class="size-full wp-image-36583 aligncenter" src="https://fideres.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/chart_3_Johnson-Johnson-Stock-Price-and-Options-Trade-Volume.png" alt="" width="2728" height="1361" /></em></span></p> <h6 style="text-align: center"><em><span style="font-size: 10pt">Source: Bloomberg, Fideres’s analysis</span></em></h6> <p><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">Bloomberg lists 7760 different available/traded option contracts for Johnson & Johnson in December 2018. The following chart shows the price changes for two exemplary options that are both liquidly traded and significantly affected by the observed price drop in the stock:</span></p> <ul> <li><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">Call, strike $130, maturity 18 January 2019, and</span></li> <li><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">Put, strike $130, maturity 18 January 2019.</span></li> </ul> <h6 style="text-align: center"><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light"><em><img loading="lazy" class="size-full wp-image-36584 aligncenter" src="https://fideres.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/chart_4_Johnson-Johnson-Stock-Price-and-Selected-Option-Premiums.png" alt="" width="2727" height="1362" /></em></span><em><span style="font-size: 10pt">Source: Bloomberg, Fideres’s Analysis</span></em></h6> <p><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">As illustrated, the call option lost approximately 75% (or $12) of its value per contract on December 14, 2018. The put option gained 1300% ($3.25) per contract that day. Premiums of put options and call options react inversely to changes in the share price, but from a perspective of trading strategies, a clients’ option portfolio is often either “long” or “short” on the underlying. Furthermore, as elaborated on in section 3, other market factors influence options values.</span></p> <p><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">In addition to the 7760 different option contracts in December, further option premiums are affected by the event on December 14, since the class-period is longer than only a few weeks and the underlying equity’s price behavior was artificially distorted for a longer period.</span></p> <p><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">Due to the non-linear, rather complicated scaling behavior of value changes in option positions, damages have to be calculated for specific option portfolios (or the portfolio of all open option contracts).</span></p> <h2><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">Inclusion of Option Damages into Established Methodology</span></h2> <p style="text-align: left"><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">Damages on stock positions are calculated using event studies and by determining the share prices in a “but-for” world, where the relevant information was reflected in a timely manner. Option pricing models can be adapted to the event study framework and used to estimate damages on option positions in 10b5 claims. The following chart shows the calculation of “but-for” prices for the mentioned JNJ options (section 5) and the underlying stock:</span><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light"><em><img loading="lazy" class="size-full wp-image-36585 aligncenter" src="https://fideres.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/chart_5_Johnson-Johnson-Stock-Price-and-Selected-Option-Premiums.png" alt="" width="2727" height="1361" /></em></span></p> <h6 style="text-align: center"><em><span style="font-size: 10pt">Source: Bloomberg, Fideres’s Analysis</span></em></h6> <p><span style="font-family: proxima-nova-light">The estimated “but-for” prices for options can be used to calculate damages incurred on portfolios that comprise of options and/or equity positions. Given the large volume of option positions, this approach significantly increases and better reflects the overall damages in 10b-5 cases.</span></p> <p> </p> </div><h1 class="bde-heading-36062-112 bde-heading"> Sources </h1><div class="bde-rich-text-36062-111 bde-rich-text breakdance-rich-text-styles"> <p><span style="font-size: 10pt;font-family: proxima-nova-light"><sup>1</sup> Strike price of $ 100, maturity 6 month</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 10pt;font-family: proxima-nova-light"><sup>2</sup> According to the CBOE (<a href="http://www.cboe.com/data/historical-options-data/equity-option-volume">http://www.cboe.com/data/historical-options-data/equity-option-volume</a>)</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 10pt;font-family: proxima-nova-light"><sup>3</sup> Assumptions according to OCC report December 2018 applied: average premium per contract: $432, average contracts per transaction: 8.3 (<a href="https://www.theocc.com/webapps/monthly-volume-reports?reportClass=equity">https://www.theocc.com/webapps/monthly-volume-reports?reportClass=equity</a>)</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 10pt;font-family: proxima-nova-light"><sup>4</sup> https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/johnsonandjohnson-cancer</span></p> </div><div class="bde-shortcode-36062-105 bde-shortcode"> <div class="saboxplugin-wrap" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person" itemscope itemprop="author"><div class="saboxplugin-tab"><div class="saboxplugin-gravatar"><img src="https://fideres.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/steffen.png" width="100" height="100" alt="" itemprop="image"></div><div class="saboxplugin-authorname"><a href="https://fideres.com/es/author/steffen_hennig/" class="vcard author" rel="author"><span class="fn">Steffen Hennig</span></a></div><div class="saboxplugin-desc"><div itemprop="description"><p>Steffen is a founding partner of Fideres with over 21 years’ experience in structured products and complex derivatives across all major asset classes. Steffen is responsible for the quantitative analysis of consulting mandates and has handled various complex benchmark manipulation cases, including LIBOR and ISDAfix, and cases relating to the mis-selling of structured product and derivatives. Prior to founding Fideres, he held a senior position at The Royal Bank of Scotland were he moved to after working for 5 years at Deutsche Bank. Steffen holds a master-level degree in Mathematics from the University of Erlangen, the Certificate of Advanced Studies in Mathematics (Part III) from the University of Cambridge and an MSc in Financial Engineering and Quantitative Analysis from the ICMA Centre at the University of Reading.</p> </div></div><div class="clearfix"></div></div></div> </div></div> </section><section class="bde-section-36062-124 bde-section"> <div class="section-container"><div class="bde-columns-36062-125 bde-columns"><div class="bde-column-36062-126 bde-column"> <div class="bde-shortcode-36062-123 bde-shortcode"> <div class='next-post-bg' style='background-image: url(https://fideres.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Chicago_Skyline-scaled.jpg);'><a href='https://fideres.com/es/crossed-wires/' class='next-post-link'><span class='link-label'>Previous Post</span><span class='post-title'>Crossed Wires</span></a></div><br> </div> </div><div class="bde-column-36062-127 bde-column"> <div 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> </div> </div> </figure> </div><div class="bde-div-35993-110-36547 bde-div bde-div-35993-110"> <h1 class="bde-heading-35993-101-36547 bde-heading bde-heading-35993-101"> Research </h1><h1 class="bde-heading-35993-103-36547 bde-heading bde-heading-35993-103"> No Poaching </h1><div class="bde-rich-text-35993-104-36547 bde-rich-text bde-rich-text-35993-104 breakdance-rich-text-styles"> <p>The elephant in the room.</p> </div><div class="bde-div-35993-106-36547 bde-div bde-div-35993-106"> <div class="bde-image-35993-105-36547 bde-image bde-image-35993-105"> <figure class="breakdance-image breakdance-image--"> <div class="breakdance-image-container"> <div class="breakdance-image-clip"> <img class="breakdance-image-object" src="https://fideres.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/russ.jpg" width="2048" height="2048" > </div> </div> </figure> </div><div class="bde-div-35993-109-36547 bde-div bde-div-35993-109"> <h1 class="bde-heading-35993-108-36547 bde-heading bde-heading-35993-108"> septiembre 3, 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