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Mysteel节后预测：中南区域无缝管价格或将震荡趋强运行-我的钢铁网
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<p>一、当前主流城市价格维持高位运行</p> <p align="justify">从主流城市价格来看，截止2021年9月28日，郑州市场108*4.5mm均价为6400元/吨，周环比涨50元/吨，月环比涨320元/吨，年同比涨2050元/吨；武汉市场108*4.5mm均价为6500元/吨，周环比涨120元/吨，月环比300元/吨，年同比涨1950元/吨；长沙市场108*4.5mm均价为6530元/吨，周环比涨30元/吨，月环比涨180元/吨，年同比涨1980元/吨；广州市场108*4.5mm均价为6700元/吨，周环比涨50元/吨，月环比涨400元/吨，年同比涨2050元/吨；南宁市场108*4.5mm均价为6700元/吨，周环比涨100元/吨，月环比涨300元/吨，年同比涨2050元/吨。回顾近两年的市场价格，自2020年8月开始，市场价格逐步走高，中南地区主流城市年同比涨幅均在2000左右。目前价格仍处于高位震荡的局面，且近期管坯资源紧缺以及由于限电限产等因素的影响部分管厂部分资源逐步紧缺，由此看来，近期价格虽处于高位但大幅下跌的可能性较小。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/09/29/090642.jpg" style="width: 480px; height: 320px;" /></p> <p>二、库存情况</p> <p>首先，近期由于部分地区限电限产等因素影响，导致部分主流管厂集中停产检修，无缝管整体资源由宽松逐步走向紧缺；其次，由于管坯资源紧缺，导致管坯价格在近期强势拉涨，带动了整个无缝管的价格；最后随着市场到货成本明显抬升，商家恐高心态较浓，市场到货资源逐步缩减，操作以慢进快出为主，所以近期市场库存有出现较明显回落。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/09/29/090706.jpg" style="width: 480px; height: 305px;" /></p> <p>三、成交量调研</p> <p align="justify">据mysteel样本企业调研数据来看，首先，2021年月均成交量比2020年月均成交量的整体水平要低，8月和9月尤其明显，而近两年内5月至9月的成交数据趋势极度吻合，成交释放的转折点均是在8月触底，9月逐步有所好转；其次，2020年自8月起每月逐步增加，到2021年1月份才明显回落，所以从周期走势情况来看2021年10月份成交量走势继续提升的概率较大。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/09/29/093715.jpg" style="width: 480px; height: 303px;" /></p> <p>四、节后预测</p> <p align="justify">从近五年国庆节前后的价格对比来看，2016年-2019年期间中南地区主流城市无缝管节后一周价格均出现小幅下跌的情况，跌幅为50-150元/吨，而从2020年开始节后一周价格多数持稳个别小幅上涨，涨幅为50元/吨。此前无缝管行业一直处于供强虚弱的局面，市场价格易跌难涨，而今年原料管坯资源持续收缩，据mysteel电话调研，预计10月限产检修对于管坯整体资源影响的程度将维持9月份的强度，叠加9月库存资源的消耗，管坯的价格易涨难跌。另外，近期主流管厂集中检修停产，管厂资源持续消耗，无缝管行业不再是供强需弱的局面，叠加市场需求在10月大概率会有所增加，综合来看，预计中南地区节后无缝管价格或将震荡趋强运行。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：姚猛 021-26094015 </br> 资讯监督：陈文花 021-26093859 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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