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New CNAS Report: “Potential Russian Uses of Paramilitaries in Eurasia” | CNAS

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xlink:href="/assets/images/icons.svg?v=2#email"></use> </svg> </span> </a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <!-- Progress bar --> <div class="progress-header"> <div class="progress-container"> <div class="progress-bar" id="myBar"></div> </div> </div> <!-- Progress bar end--> </header> <main id="content" role="main"> <article> <header> <div class="wrapper -large margin-top"> <img src="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/title/Paramilitaries_Web.jpg" alt=""> </div> <div class="article__header wrapper -large"> <div class="attribution-block"> <p class="sans-serif fz11 bold uppercase margin-bottom-1em">January 17, 2024</p> </div> <div class="article__header__title-group"> <h1 class="page-title">New CNAS Report: “Potential Russian Uses of Paramilitaries in Eurasia”</h1> </div> <div class="article__header__meta"> <p class="margin-top-1em article__header__meta__byline"> <span class="sans-serif fz14"> By: </span> <a class="contributor" href="https://www.cnas.org/people/dr-kimberly-marten">Kimberly Marten</a>, <a class="contributor" href="https://www.cnas.org/people/andrea-kendall-taylor">Andrea Kendall-Taylor</a>, <a class="contributor" href="https://www.cnas.org/people/carisa-nietsche">Carisa Nietsche</a>, <a class="contributor" href="https://www.cnas.org/people/nicholas-lokker">Nicholas Lokker</a>, <span class="sans-serif fz14">and</span> <a class="contributor" href="https://www.cnas.org/people/kristen-taylor">Kristen Taylor</a> </p> </div> </div> </header> <div class="wrapper wysiwyg margin-vertical drop-cap"> <p>Washington, January 17, 2024 — Today, the Center for a New American Security released a new report, <em><a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/potential-russian-uses-of-paramilitaries-in-eurasia">Potential Russian Uses of Paramilitaries in Eurasia</a></em> by Dr. Kimberly Marten, Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Carisa Nietsche, Nicholas Lokker, and Kristen Taylor. </p> <p>The report argues that while much remains uncertain following the June 2023 mutiny of Russia’s Wagner Group and the death of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023, Russia will likely continue to work with semi-state armed formations. Russia’s degraded military capacity and constrained economic resources, especially as sanctions persist, will increase the attractiveness of these organizations as low-cost tools for advancing Russian objectives and competing against the West. </p> <p>The report highlights how the Kremlin could use these groups to advance its interests in Eurasia, including by waging political influence and disinformation campaigns, physically protecting friendly governments, sustaining Russia’s influence as a key security provider, destabilizing unfriendly governments, and limiting any threats that Russia’s diaspora population might pose to the stability of the Putin regime from abroad. </p> <p>The report concludes by identifying implications for the United States and its allies. The proliferation and increased activity of these groups would make it more difficult for the United States and its allies to attribute such actions to the Kremlin, complicating Western response options. These groups—and the opportunistic individuals who lead them—could, for example, stake out positions independent of the Kremlin, or even at odds with it, especially in the case of extreme ethnic nationalists who have criticized Putin for not going far enough in his actions. The proliferation of these groups would also make it difficult to discern when and under what circumstances the Kremlin might be willing to escalate on these groups’ behalf. </p> <p><em> For more information or to schedule an interview with the report authors, please contact Alexa Whaley at <a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e584928d8489809ca5868b8496cb8a9782"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="7d1c0a151c1118043d1e131c0e53120f1a">[email&#160;protected]</span></a>. </em></p> </div> <div class="wrapper -extra-large -clear margin-vertical"> <div class="photo-listing -single"> <figure class="photo-listing__item"> <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" srcset=" https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/_580x229_crop_center-center_none/Paramilitaries_Web.jpg 580w, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/_690x272_crop_center-center_none/Paramilitaries_Web.jpg 690w, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/_768x303_crop_center-center_none/Paramilitaries_Web.jpg 768w, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/_1140x450_crop_center-center_none/Paramilitaries_Web.jpg 1140w" sizes="(min-width: 1200px) 1140px, (min-width: 600px) calc(100vw - 60px), calc(100vw - 30px)" width="1140" height="450" alt=""> <figcaption> <span class="label margin-bottom-half-em">Transatlantic Security</span> <h2 class="h4"><a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/potential-russian-uses-of-paramilitaries-in-eurasia">Potential Russian Uses of Paramilitaries in Eurasia</a></h2> <p class="margin-vertical-1em"> Executive Summary While much remains uncertain following the June 2023 mutiny of Russia’s Wagner Group and the August death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russia will likel... </p> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/potential-russian-uses-of-paramilitaries-in-eurasia" class="more"> Read More <span class="chevron -right -white"></span> </a> </figcaption> </figure> </div> </div> <div class="authors-block margin-top "> <div class="wrapper -custom"> <style type="text/css"> h2#authors-1.section-title:after{background:#fff !important;} @media (min-width: 600px) { h2#authors-1.section-title{margin-top: -50px;margin-bottom: 100px;} h2#authors-1.section-title:after{margin-top: -50px;margin-bottom: -50px;} } @media (max-width: 599px) { h2#authors-1.section-title{margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:30px;padding-left:15px;} } </style> <h2 class="section-title" id="authors-1" data-toc-skip style=> Authors </h2> <ul class="author-list"> <li class="author-list__item"> <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" srcset="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/thumbnails/_120xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/marten-thumb.png 1x, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/thumbnails/_240xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/marten-thumb.png 2x" width="120" height="120" class="desaturate" alt=""> <h3 class="h4 margin-bottom-half-em"> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/dr-kimberly-marten">Kimberly Marten</a> </h3> <p class="fz14 margin-bottom-1em">Professor of Political Science, Columbia University</p> <p class="fz12 sans-serif"> Dr. Kimberly Marten is a professor of political science at Barnard College, Columbia University, and a contributing author at CNAS. She is a faculty member and executive commi... </p> </li> <li class="author-list__item"> <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" srcset="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/thumbnails/_120xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/Andrea_Kendall-Taylor-square.jpg 1x, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/thumbnails/_240xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/Andrea_Kendall-Taylor-square.jpg 2x" width="120" height="120" class="desaturate" alt=""> <h3 class="h4 margin-bottom-half-em"> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/andrea-kendall-taylor">Andrea Kendall-Taylor</a> </h3> <p class="fz14 margin-bottom-1em">Senior Fellow and Director, Transatlantic Security Program</p> <p class="fz12 sans-serif"> Andrea Kendall-Taylor is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS. She works on national security challenges facing the United States and Eur... </p> </li> <li class="author-list__item"> <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" srcset="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/thumbnails/_120xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/Carisa-Nietsche-thumbnail.jpg 1x, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/thumbnails/_240xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/Carisa-Nietsche-thumbnail.jpg 2x" width="120" height="120" class="desaturate" alt=""> <h3 class="h4 margin-bottom-half-em"> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/carisa-nietsche">Carisa Nietsche</a> </h3> <p class="fz14 margin-bottom-1em">Associate Fellow, Transatlantic Security Program</p> <p class="fz12 sans-serif"> Carisa Nietsche is an associate fellow with the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). She specializes in Europe-China relations, tra... </p> </li> <li class="author-list__item"> <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" srcset="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/thumbnails/_120xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/Nick-Lokker_thumbnail-2024.jpg 1x, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/thumbnails/_240xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/Nick-Lokker_thumbnail-2024.jpg 2x" width="120" height="120" class="desaturate" alt=""> <h3 class="h4 margin-bottom-half-em"> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/nicholas-lokker">Nicholas Lokker</a> </h3> <p class="fz14 margin-bottom-1em">Research Associate, Transatlantic Security Program</p> <p class="fz12 sans-serif"> Nicholas Lokker is a Research Associate for the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS. His work focuses on U.S.-EU relations, Russian foreign policy, international institutio... </p> </li> <li class="author-list__item"> <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" srcset="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/thumbnails/_120xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/Taylor-Thumb.png 1x, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/thumbnails/_240xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/Taylor-Thumb.png 2x" width="120" height="120" class="desaturate" alt=""> <h3 class="h4 margin-bottom-half-em"> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/kristen-taylor">Kristen Taylor</a> </h3> <p class="fz14 margin-bottom-1em">Former Intern, Transatlantic Security Program</p> <p class="fz12 sans-serif"> Kristen Taylor is a former Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Intern for the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Before joining CNAS, Kristen hel... </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </article> </main> <footer class="footer"> <div class="footer__inner"> <dl class="footer__contact-info"> <dt class="screenreader-only">Address:</dt> <dd> <span class="sprite -pin "> <svg width="16" height="16" class="svgsprite"> <use xlink:href="/assets/images/icons.svg?v=2#pin"></use> </svg> </span> <span> Center for a New American Security<br> 1701 Pennsylvania Ave NW<br> Suite 700<br> Washington, DC 20006 </span> </dd> <dt class="screenreader-only">Phone:</dt> <dd> <span class="sprite -phone "> <svg width="16" height="16" class="svgsprite"> <use xlink:href="/assets/images/icons.svg?v=2#phone"></use> </svg> </span> <span>(202) 457-9400</span> </dd> <dt class="screenreader-only">Email:</dt> <dd> <a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#244d4a424b64474a45570a4b5643"> <span class="sprite -email "> <svg width="16" height="16" class="svgsprite"> <use xlink:href="/assets/images/icons.svg?v=2#email"></use> </svg> </span> <span><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="5930373f36193a37382a77362b3e">[email&#160;protected]</span></span> </a> </dd> </dl> <ul class="footer__social-nav"> <li> <a href="https://twitter.com/cnasdc"> <span class="sprite -twitter "> <svg width="16" height="16" class="svgsprite"> <use xlink:href="/assets/images/icons.svg?v=2#twitter"></use> </svg> </span> <span>Twitter</span> </a> </li> <li> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/center-for-a-new-american-security/"> <span class="sprite -linkedin "> <svg width="16" height="16" class="svgsprite"> <use xlink:href="/assets/images/icons.svg?v=2#linkedin"></use> </svg> </span> <span>LinkedIn</span> </a> </li> <li> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/CNASdc"> <span class="sprite -youtube "> <svg width="16" height="16" class="svgsprite"> <use xlink:href="/assets/images/icons.svg?v=2#youtube"></use> </svg> </span> <span>YouTube</span> </a> </li> <li> <a href="https://instagram.com/cnasdc"> <span class="sprite -instagram "> <svg width="16" height="16" class="svgsprite"> <use xlink:href="/assets/images/icons.svg?v=2#instagram"></use> </svg> </span> <span>Instagram</span> </a> </li> <li> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/CNASdc"> <span class="sprite -facebook "> <svg width="16" height="16" class="svgsprite"> <use xlink:href="/assets/images/icons.svg?v=2#facebook"></use> </svg> </span> <span>Facebook</span> </a> </li> </ul> <ul class="footer__supplementary-nav"> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/mission">About</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/events">Events</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/careers/internships">Internships</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/careers">Careers</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/support-cnas">Support CNAS</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/join">Subscribe</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/press">Press</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/contact">Contact</a></li> </ul> <p class="footer__copyright"> © 2024 Center for a New American Security. </p> </div> <div class="return-top"> <a href="#top" title="Return to top"> <img class="return-top-icon" alt="Return to top" src="/assets/images/return-top-white.png"> </a> </div> </footer> <script data-cfasync="false" src="/cdn-cgi/scripts/5c5dd728/cloudflare-static/email-decode.min.js"></script><script src="https://www.cnas.org/assets/javascripts/app-83c83bd3c129aa526fb9.js"></script> <script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"http://schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","author":{"@id":"#identity"},"copyrightHolder":{"@id":"#identity"},"copyrightYear":"2024","creator":{"@id":"#creator"},"dateCreated":"2024-01-17T14:57:34-05:00","dateModified":"2024-01-17T15:39:43-05:00","datePublished":"2024-01-17T14:57:00-05:00","description":"The report highlights how the Kremlin could use these groups to advance its interests in Eurasia, including by waging political influence and disinformation campaigns, physically protecting friendly governments, sustaining Russia’s influence as a key security provider, destabilizing unfriendly governments, and limiting any threats that Russia’s diaspora population might pose to the stability of the Putin regime from abroad. 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