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“油脂油料产业链期现货年终论坛”同期会议顺利召开-我的钢铁网
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18:28</span> <span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源：我的农产品网</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="2976" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p>12月28日，在大连商品交易所的特别支持下，由华泰期货有限公司主办，上海钢联电子商务股份有限公司协办，华泰期货南宁营业部承办的“2021年油脂油料产业链期现货年终论坛”在南宁鑫伟万豪酒店顺利召开。</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2021/12/28/183948.png" style="width: 600px; height: 398px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>同期会议现场图片</strong></p> <p><strong>首先，华泰期货研究院院长侯峻发表了题为《全球宏观经济形势分析与<a href='https://m.myagric.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>农产品</a>板块投资机会展望》的精彩演讲。</strong></p> <p>侯院长首先对海外宏观市场进行了研判，他认为从现在到2022年春季气温变暖之前，全球疫情对于宏观经济的负面影响仍将反复，但随着小分子抗病毒口服药和加强针疫苗的更大面积推广，以及温度的转暖，疫情大概率将得到控制，新冠变种病毒的长期影响预计有限。海外财政、货币政策方面，他指出2022年美国扩张减弱，疫情补贴财政退出，基建财政接力，总量将有所收缩；欧洲疫情使得财政宽松延续，欧盟财政一体化将加速落地，且2022年的货币政策宽松转向正常化，欧洲慢于美国。而2022年美国的宏观经济上半年维持高位韧性，关注下半年放缓风险。</p> <p>其次国内宏观方面，他指出在我国经济发展面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力下，国内宏观经济的总基调是坚持稳中求进，推动高质量发展，坚持以供给侧结构性改革为主线，继续做好“六稳六保”工作，持续改善民生，着力稳定宏观经济大盘，保持经济运行在合理区间，保持社会大局稳定，迎接二十大胜利召开。国内财政、货币政策有望在2022年延续宽松格局，国内利率预计先下后上，人民币在2022年上半年将震荡，下半年有小幅贬值概率。</p> <p>最后在农产品投资方面，侯院长表示应重点关注供给瓶颈、成本支撑逻辑下的农产品涨价机遇，关注PPI向CPI传导逻辑下的农产品通胀可能。因为在长期产量瓶颈的约束下，农产品价格易涨难跌，2022年全球大豆和豆粕价格易涨难跌，豆粕牛市仍然可期。在全球油脂供需环境逐步向好，国内外库存仍然偏紧的情况下，未来油脂价格仍将延续长期上涨趋势。</p> <p>此外，他也对经济运行提出了三点风险警惕：风险一，恶性新冠变种突破疫苗和特效药双重防御体系；风险二，新兴市场经济体债务风险；风险三，美国中期选举博弈。</p> <p><strong>接下来，上海钢联电子商务股份有限公司油脂分析师滕浩发表了题为《2021年国内油脂油料市场格局变化及走势分析》的精彩演讲。</strong></p> <p>首先滕老师分析了全球油脂供需现状，他指出在目前全球的油脂供应体系中，产量从多到少依次是棕榈油、大豆油、菜籽油、葵籽油和棕仁油。棕榈油是全球第一大植物油品种，同时也是第一大贸易品种。豆油在全球属于第二大油脂品种，在中国是最大的油脂品种。中国既是全球第二大油脂产出国，同时也是最大的油脂需求国，也是豆油最大的产出国和需求国，因为国内上游大豆严重依赖进口。</p> <p>其次，滕老师对油脂油料市场格局变化及走势进行了解析，首先2021年豆油现货价格与期货价格出现持续严重偏离现象，因2021年疫情零星爆发的关系，市场供应产生一定的错配，导致现货价格持续大幅升水于期货价格。而菜豆价差、豆棕价差持续扩大，油粕比进入高位，全球豆油处于供需紧平衡状态，国内油脂供应同比减少，消费量增加导致库存全年低位运行使得豆油价格有所支撑。</p> <p>最后关于油脂后市，滕老师认为全球的整体豆油消费量是增加的预期，主要的消费国印度、中国和美国以及巴西均有增长支撑。2022年国内豆油价格或前高后低。在元旦或春节后的一段时间，受成本支撑及下游需求对行情或有推动，豆油价格有继续走高的可能。但一季度后，面对处在近年高位的现货价格，下游采购或趋于谨慎，备货周期不会太长，加上国家对于高价大宗商品价格的监管下，在中期看，价格也存在回调的可能性。预计2022年全年豆油上涨的幅度或小于近两年的水平。整体看，在新年度库存依旧偏低的开局下，注定2022年豆油价格或是前高后低，在无重大利空消息的情况下，价格下半年或将逐步趋弱，但大概率不会出现大幅下滑行情。</p> <p><strong>接下来，广西北港油脂有限公司销售总监金玉峰发表了题为《2021年豆粕市场运行回顾及后市展望》的精彩演讲。</strong></p> <p>首先，金总就粕类市场的运行进行了回顾，在全球库销比上调，供应逐步向宽松转化的背景下，美豆及美豆粕中长期将偏空运行，但近期关注美豆出口、南美天气等方面。供应方面，国内1-12月大豆进口量预计将达到9647.79万吨，同比下降。20年全年国内油厂压榨利润较好，21年4月份后压榨利润持续下跌，油厂多数时间处于负榨利。整体上国内大豆压榨量、豆粕提货量双双走高，但结转库存偏低。需求方面，随着玉米原料的价格优势凸显，豆粕用量在逐步恢，1-11月饲料产量高于近年同期，生猪养殖成本线附近，母猪存栏尚未恢复，仔猪价格触底反弹，补栏积极性好转，白羽肉鸡养殖利润亏损时间较长，蛋鸡利润较好。关于后市的行情这方面，金总认为美联储进入加息周期，通胀缓和，大宗产品进入调整周期，虽然全球大豆库销比上调，供应宽松，长期应偏空对待，但近月不建议过度看空，因为美国需求被低估、国内结转库存低位。后期重点关注南美天气、2-3月国内到港量及疫情影响。</p> <p><strong>最后，华泰长城资本管理有限公司副总经理刘东东发表了题为《豆粕期权实战策略运用与风险管理》的精彩演讲。</strong></p> <p>首先刘总介绍了期权及其风险管理特征，期权有着非线性损益的特征，它从单一维度交易到立体空间交易，是更高效的工具；它是可调节的杠杆，具有更高的资金利用效率，是从方向交易转向概率交易。</p> <p>其次讲解了常见期权投资交易策略，如单一期权策略-买入期权、卖出期权、组合期权策略-垂直价差等。再者对企业风险管理应用场景进行解析，套期保值的效果和目的是期货锁价与期权保价，为企业经营各环节的期权套保增益。在原料采购风险管理、库存风险管理、套利交易、含权贸易中如何运用期权策略降本增信。</p> <p>最后刘总还介绍了交易策略优化及注意事项。如何进行买权策略效果的优化、卖权策略效果的优化、买卖方向如何选择、极端行情下的策略选择等。最后提出标准化套保选期货，个性化套保选期权，顺势套保选期货，逆势套保选期权以小钱办大事，有资金问题选期权。</p> <p>本次同期会议于28日下午17:30圆满结束。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：党媛媛 021-26094506 </br> 资讯监督：龙雪云 021-26094522 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.myagric.com/article/p-4125-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> 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