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November data brings early signs of stabilization

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mx-details-container-padding"> <!----> <code id="isGuest" style="display: none"><!--true--></code> <code id="memberUrn" style="display: none"><!--"urn:li:member:0"--></code> <code id="isNbaRecommendedArticlesDeeplinkEnabled" style="display: none"><!--"true"--></code> <code id="isDynamicTextareaEnabled" style="display: none"><!--"true"--></code> <article class="article-main relative flex-grow pulse"> <!----> <figure class="cover-img"> <!----> <div class="cover-img__image-frame relative w-full overflow-hidden pb-[calc((134/782)*100%)]"> <div class="cover-img__image-position absolute top-0 right-0 bottom-0 left-0 "> <img class="cover-img__image relative w-full h-full object-cover" src="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5612AQG0OZYjdlTVyg/article-cover_image-shrink_720_1280/article-cover_image-shrink_720_1280/0/1702316493310?e=2147483647&amp;v=beta&amp;t=_1DH_YFO7cJPy7s7lREUlVk8W_9naj7GEL_pMddHnsY" fetchpriority="high" data-embed-id="cover-image" alt="November data brings early signs of stabilization"> </div> </div> <!----> </figure> <header> <section class="core-section-container relative my-3"> <h1 class="pulse-title text-display-md text-color-text lg:text-display-lg font-bold w-11/12">November data brings early signs of stabilization</h1> <div class="ellipsis-menu absolute right-0 top-0"> <div class="collapsible-dropdown flex items-center relative hyphens-auto"> <button class="ellipsis-menu__trigger collapsible-dropdown__button btn-md btn-tertiary cursor-pointer !py-[6px] !px-1 flex items-center rounded-[50%] " aria-expanded="false" aria-label="Open menu" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_ellipsis-menu-trigger" tabindex="0"> <icon class="ellipsis-menu__trigger-icon m-0 p-0 centered-icon" data-delayed-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/671xosfpvk4c0kqtyl87hashi"></icon> </button> <ul class="collapsible-dropdown__list hidden container-raised absolute w-auto overflow-y-auto flex-col items-stretch z-1 bottom-auto top-[100%]" role="menu" tabindex="-1"> <li class="ellipsis-menu__item border-t-1 border-solid border-color-border-low-emphasis first-of-type:border-none flex"> <a href="/uas/login?session_redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fpulse%2Fnovember-data-brings-early-signs-stabilization-hmmlc&amp;trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_ellipsis-menu-semaphore-sign-in-redirect&amp;guestReportContentType=PONCHO_ARTICLE&amp;_f=guest-reporting" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_ellipsis-menu-semaphore-sign-in-redirect" data-tracking-will-navigate data-item-type="semaphore" data-semaphore-content-type="PONCHO_ARTICLE" data-semaphore-content-urn="urn:li:linkedInArticle:7140032826111889409" data-semaphore-tracking-prefix="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_ellipsis-menu-semaphore" data-is-logged-in="false" data-modal="semaphore__toggle" class="semaphore__toggle visited:text-color-text-secondary ellipsis-menu__semaphore ellipsis-menu__item-button flex items-center w-full p-1 cursor-pointer font-sans text-sm 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Economic Graph </span> </a> <img class="inline-block relative w-6 h-6 " data-delayed-url="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E0BAQGcXDqcZUXvTw/company-logo_100_100/company-logo_100_100/0/1719339106463/linkedin_economic_graph_logo?e=2147483647&amp;v=beta&amp;t=P1JLCx8m7C7QbUtxQBkD7qqWpS1nDo4b71p3oQBcio8" data-ghost-classes="bg-color-entity-ghost-background" data-ghost-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/cs8pjfgyw96g44ln9r7tct85f" alt="LinkedIn's Economic Graph"> <div class="base-main-card__info self-center ml-1 flex-1 relative break-words papabear:min-w-0 mamabear:min-w-0 babybear:w-full "> <!----> <h3 class="base-main-card__title font-sans text-[18px] font-bold text-color-text overflow-hidden "> LinkedIn's Economic Graph </h3> <h4 class="base-main-card__subtitle body-text text-color-text overflow-hidden "> A digital representation of the global economy. </h4> <!----> <div class="body-text text-color-text-low-emphasis base-main-card__metadata"> Published Dec 11, 2023 </div> <!----> </div> <div class="base-main-card__ctas z-[3] self-center ml-3 babybear:ml-1 babybear:self-start"> <a class="base-main-card__cta btn-sm btn-secondary" href="https://www.linkedin.com/signup/cold-join?session_redirect=%2Fpulse%2Fnovember-data-brings-early-signs-stabilization-hmmlc%3Ftrk%3Darticle-ssr-frontend-pulse_more-articles_related-content-card&amp;trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_publisher-author-card" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_publisher-author-card" data-tracking-will-navigate> + Follow </a> </div> </div> </div> </section> </header> <div data-test-id="article-content-blocks"> <!----> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class="italic">By </span><span class><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/karinkimbrough/?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_little-text-block" target="_blank" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_little-text-block" data-tracking-will-navigate data-test-link>Karin Kimbrough<!----></a></span><span class="italic">, Chief Economist at LinkedIn</span><!----> </p> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>With the holiday season kicking off and in the midst of the biggest shopping days of the year,  November brought additional signs that the labor market may be stabilizing after a sizable slowdown that started in the spring of 2022. Slowing hiring trends in 2023 may be signaling a slowdown in nominal wage growth in 2024, tempering wage-driven inflation worries. As we wrap up 2023, job seeking activity remains elevated and workers remain steadfast in their preference for hybrid/remote work. We also see several important developments that will shape the labor market in 2024.</span><!----> </p> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <h3><span class>Hiring is signaling downside to future wage growth</span><!----></h3> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>In the US, Chart showing US LinkedIn Hiring Rate compared to the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker from November 2017 through November 2023 reversing October’s modest hiring gains, and remains down 14.7% compared to November 2022 – the second smallest decline over the past 12 months. While hiring has yet to fully stabilize, the steep hiring slowdown has moderated since the summer with hiring down only 3.1% since July.</span><!----> </p> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>Based on the LinkedIn Hiring Rate, we observed about a 10-month lag between the acceleration in hiring and the rise of wage growth since the onset of the current inflation episode. There are no assurances that wage inflation will symmetrically track hiring going down as it did when going up, however, 2023’s hiring slowdown points to downside for future nominal wage growth (and consequently wage-fueled inflation).</span><!----> </p> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="flex flex-col mt-2" data-test-id="publishing-image-block" rel="ugc"> <figure> <img alt="Chart showing US LinkedIn Hiring Rate compared to the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker from November 2017 through November 2023." class="lazy-load block w-full" data-delayed-url="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5612AQHTKMy1LWIfQQ/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488/0/1702316600916?e=2147483647&amp;v=beta&amp;t=VbV2O1Tys22l0jB-LxNNuqJlPb-Wu7Wop_UfHMc7_7o"> <!----> </figure> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>Starting in the spring of 2022, headwinds in the macroeconomy hit the US Technology, Information, and Media industry harder than most sectors . We are now beginning to see signs that the US tech sector is moving towards stabilization – although at a lower pace of hiring than seen prior to the pandemic. In November, hiring in tech experienced its third lowest monthly decline of 2023 and its hiring pace is actually up 2.6% since July.</span><!----> </p> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>Outside of the US, hiring has deteriorated faster in Europe, including in Sweden, the Netherlands, France, and Spain (Sweden and the Netherlands are currently considered to be in recession). Hiring continued to decelerate in Germany and the United Kingdom though at a marginally slower pace compared to November 2022.</span><!----> </p> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="flex flex-col mt-2" data-test-id="publishing-image-block" rel="ugc"> <figure> <img alt="Chart showing various countries’ LinkedIn Hiring Rate year over year percent change for November 2022 and November 2023." class="lazy-load block w-full" data-delayed-url="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5612AQEK3EGDLSIbBw/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488/0/1702316636933?e=2147483647&amp;v=beta&amp;t=U6N-yGRV0k-nBagtIRf7igMinx7glBqTrnEmPPg8J5A"> <!----> </figure> </div> <!----> <div class="inline-articles bg-color-surface-new border-hidden rounded-sm p-1 mx-auto my-1.5 mamabear:w-2/3 inline-articles__before"> <h2 class="text-xl font-medium ml-1.5 my-1 text-color-text mamabear:text-center">Recommended by LinkedIn</h2> <div class="flex flex-wrap mx-0.5 babybear:mx-1.5"> <div class="content-author-card flex flex-col max-w-[270px] h-auto rounded-md border-1 border-system-gray-30 border-solid pb-1.5 inline-article mx-auto my-1 border-hidden papabear:w-[219px] babybear:min-w-full mamabear:min-w-full h-auto bg-color-canvas-tint"> <a class="no-underline" data-tracking-control-name="inline-recommended-articles" data-tracking-will-navigate href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/labor-market-101-insiderbusiness"> <img class="content-image w-full h-[150px] bg-cover rounded-t-md object-cover" data-delayed-url="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E12AQHkdQMxNWki1g/article-cover_image-shrink_600_2000/article-cover_image-shrink_600_2000/0/1681545928693?e=2147483647&amp;v=beta&amp;t=89vp8RFlMzbvnEiCdt82SUY_yxQsUr8WWZ129F_HWXM"> <div class="inline-article-title text-md text-color-text font-bold pl-2 pt-1 pr-1.5">Labor market 101</div> <div class="inline-article-meta px-2 mt-1 font-sans text-xs font-normal text-color-text-low-emphasis h-full"> <span class="inline-article-author pt-0.5"> Business Insider </span> <span class="before:middot pt-0.5 inline-article-published-date"> 1 year ago </span> </div> </a> <!----><!----> </div> <div class="content-author-card flex flex-col max-w-[270px] h-auto rounded-md border-1 border-system-gray-30 border-solid pb-1.5 inline-article mx-auto my-1 border-hidden papabear:w-[219px] babybear:min-w-full mamabear:min-w-full h-auto bg-color-canvas-tint"> <a class="no-underline" data-tracking-control-name="inline-recommended-articles" data-tracking-will-navigate href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/normalization-abnormal-job-market-david-kelly-6ubqe"> <img class="content-image w-full h-[150px] bg-cover rounded-t-md object-cover" data-delayed-url="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E12AQELufBHJ4GK_g/article-cover_image-shrink_720_1280/article-cover_image-shrink_720_1280/0/1721197496628?e=2147483647&amp;v=beta&amp;t=JHpDivo7-fDPL1WI7MAfqgwYyPFbJyv94SgzcoLwguA"> <div class="inline-article-title text-md text-color-text font-bold pl-2 pt-1 pr-1.5">The Normalization of an Abnormal Job Market</div> <div class="inline-article-meta px-2 mt-1 font-sans text-xs font-normal text-color-text-low-emphasis h-full"> <span class="inline-article-author pt-0.5"> David Kelly </span> <span class="before:middot pt-0.5 inline-article-published-date"> 5 months ago </span> </div> </a> <!----><!----> </div> <div class="content-author-card flex flex-col max-w-[270px] h-auto rounded-md border-1 border-system-gray-30 border-solid pb-1.5 inline-article mx-auto my-1 border-hidden papabear:w-[219px] babybear:min-w-full mamabear:min-w-full h-auto bg-color-canvas-tint"> <a class="no-underline" data-tracking-control-name="inline-recommended-articles" data-tracking-will-navigate href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/daily-update-labor-markets-defy-expectations-spglobal"> <img class="content-image w-full h-[150px] bg-cover rounded-t-md object-cover" data-delayed-url="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E12AQGF16GVD8pT8g/article-cover_image-shrink_600_2000/article-cover_image-shrink_600_2000/0/1671463798567?e=2147483647&amp;v=beta&amp;t=zbLGBiwNjHDPo8KOjmMyIHV3cbqmW2pw7o8AS3JKd-E"> <div class="inline-article-title text-md text-color-text font-bold pl-2 pt-1 pr-1.5">Daily Update: Labor Markets Defy Expectations</div> <div class="inline-article-meta px-2 mt-1 font-sans text-xs font-normal text-color-text-low-emphasis h-full"> <span class="inline-article-author pt-0.5"> S&amp;P Global </span> <span class="before:middot pt-0.5 inline-article-published-date"> 1 year ago </span> </div> </a> <!----><!----> </div> </div> </div> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <h3><span class>Job seeking elevated wrapping up 2023</span><!----></h3> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>Job search activity by members typically drops as we head into the end of the year before ramping back up in January. While still the case, globally, job seeking activity remains elevated compared to the same period last year. Europe leads the way in elevated job seeking intensity. France, Germany, and the UK top the list of countries with the largest increase in job seeking compared to last year, followed by the US. In all of these countries, the number of domestic applications per applicant in November exceeds the prior year by 15%.</span><!----> </p> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="flex flex-col mt-2" data-test-id="publishing-image-block" rel="ugc"> <figure> <img alt="Chart showing various countries’ 2023 job seeker intensity, which is the year over year change in the average number of applications per applicant where applicant and job are in the same country." class="lazy-load block w-full" data-delayed-url="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5612AQEoM2sZ7_GqMg/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488/0/1702316670140?e=2147483647&amp;v=beta&amp;t=FcDzi3fAI6JYOhcwHcHu7elOy9ttop6LqkN8f0reWVg"> <!----> </figure> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class="font-[700]">The fight for flexibility is far from over</span><!----> </p> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>With job seeking elevated and </span><span class><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/us-labor-market-showed-mixed-signals-linkedin-economic-graph-aiutc/?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_little-text-block" target="_blank" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_little-text-block" data-tracking-will-navigate data-test-link>many US workers expressing interest in changing roles next year<!----></a></span><span class>, the question arises about where they want to work. This year we have seen many efforts to coax and at times force workers back in the office. Our Workforce Confidence Index indicates that while many workers are willing to come into the office at some point, most are seeking flexibility beyond the 5-day onsite workweek. In fact, 59% of US employees prefer hybrid or remote work and nearly a third of employees prefer working remotely outright. Looking at these preferences across company sizes, employees at small-to-medium sized businesses stand out for wanting to work in the office (41%). Employees at large companies (10,000+) have the least preference for onsite work (35%) and are evenly split between their preference for remote and hybrid work. With </span><span class><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/us-labor-market-showed-mixed-signals-linkedin-economic-graph-aiutc/?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_little-text-block" target="_blank" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_little-text-block" data-tracking-will-navigate data-test-link>growth in remote opportunities stalled<!----></a></span><span class>, the fight for flexibility is set to continue well into 2024.</span><!----> </p> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <h3><span class>What to watch in 2024</span><!----></h3> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class>Looking ahead, 2024 is right around the corner and the labor market is poised to be a pivotal force in how next year shapes up. We expect consumers’ spending power to weaken in 2024 as they continue to run down excess savings and become more reliant on debt to finance spending in a high interest rate environment. In this environment, the labor market will be critical to the health of the consumer and thus the health of the overall economy. There are three key trends to keep a close watch on as we start 2024.</span><!----> </p> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <!----><br> </p> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <span class> <ol> <li><span class="font-[700]">Will the labor market stabilize or see more slow down?</span><span class>With unexpected resilience, the outlook for 2024 had improved in 2023 but remains challenging. Progress on inflation has taken recession calls off the table as the base case, however, recession risk remains elevated and the base case consists of tepid growth even with a soft landing. There is a reasonable chance that we may see additional slowdown in the US labor market in 2024. Recent data like the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) suggests that the US labor market might be stabilizing. Our data suggests the downward trend in Technology, Information, and Media in particular has stopped (for now). If hiring and quit metrics hold steady going into 2024, then we can expect to see some stabilization in the labor market with the upside risk of an interest rate cut coming by at least the summer (and perhaps sooner).</span><!----></li> <li><span class="font-[700]">Where will we be working in 2024?</span><span class>As the push-pull to get workers back into the office continues on, it is not yet clear how the argument over onsite work will end. As long as unemployment remains contained, employers are unlikely to compel full-time workers back 5-days a week. We will be tracking developments in this space closely and releasing a series of research notes on the state of remote and hybrid work.</span><!----></li> <li><span class="font-[700]">How will GAI change the workplace in 2024?</span><span class>Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) exploded onto the scene in 2023 (conversations around AI have increased 70% in the past year on </span><span class><a href="https://economicgraph.linkedin.com/content/dam/me/economicgraph/en-us/PDF/future-of-work-report-ai-november-2023.pdf?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_little-text-block" target="_blank" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_little-text-block" data-tracking-will-navigate data-test-link>LinkedIn<!----></a></span><span class>). The release of interactive AI tools looks set to change the way we work, and many of us want to know the “how” and “when”. LinkedIn’s </span><span class><a href="https://economicgraph.linkedin.com/research/future-of-work-report-ai?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_little-text-block" target="_blank" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_little-text-block" data-tracking-will-navigate data-test-link>AI at Work<!----></a></span><span class> series looks to follow the nascent impact of this technology on the workforce. Only 4% of executives plan to reevaluate roles and reduce headcount as a result of AI on their workforce. However, communicating an AI strategy may become an important component of selling a company to candidates. LinkedIn job posts mentioning AI or GAI have seen 17% greater application growth over the past two years than posts that do not mention them. GAI looks here to stay, and its impact on the way we work has only begun.</span><!----></li> </ol> </span><!----> </p> </div> <!----><!----> <div class="article-main__content" data-test-id="publishing-text-block"> <p> <!----><br> </p> </div> <!----> </div> <!----><!----><!----><!----><!----> <!----> </article> <div class="base-card relative w-full hover:no-underline focus:no-underline base-card--link base-main-card flex flex-wrap py-2 pr-2 babybear:pr-0 base-main-card--link main-publisher-card"> <a class="base-card__full-link absolute top-0 right-0 bottom-0 left-0 p-0 z-[2]" href="https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/state-of-the-labor-market-6996189249851076608" data-tracking-will-navigate> <span class="sr-only"> State of the Labor Market </span> </a> <img class="inline-block relative w-6 h-6 " 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href="https://www.linkedin.com/signup/cold-join?session_redirect=%2Fpulse%2Fnovember-data-brings-early-signs-stabilization-hmmlc%3Ftrk%3Darticle-ssr-frontend-pulse_more-articles_related-content-card&amp;trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_likes-count_social-actions-comments" target="_blank" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_likes-count_social-actions-comments" data-tracking-will-navigate class="flex items-center font-normal text-color-text-low-emphasis no-underline visited:text-color-text-low-emphasis before:middot my-1" data-test-id="social-actions__comments" data-id="social-actions__comments" data-num-comments="5" data-singular="%numComments% Comment" data-plural="%numComments% Comments" data-entity-urn="urn:li:ugcPost:7140034065142792193"> 5 Comments </a> <!----> </div> </div> </div> <div class="comments__container"> <div class="comments"> <!----> <!----> <section class="comment flex grow-1 items-stretch leading-[16px] comment-with-action my-1.5"> <div> <a href="https://uk.linkedin.com/in/teraallas?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_actor-image" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_actor-image" data-tracking-will-navigate> <img class="inline-block relative rounded-[50%] w-4 h-4 " data-delayed-url="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/C4D03AQGJ9b3_S_4N1w/profile-displayphoto-shrink_400_400/profile-displayphoto-shrink_400_400/0/1620467111305?e=2147483647&amp;v=beta&amp;t=g44xDycZ5EBA249T8xe7LnnLhJHG9TyiI4jF70ypWNU" data-ghost-classes="bg-color-entity-ghost-background" data-ghost-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/9c8pery4andzj6ohjkjp54ma2" alt="Tera Allas CBE"> </a> </div> <div class="w-full min-w-0"> <div class="comment__body ml-0.5 mb-1 pt-1 pr-1.5 pb-1 pl-1.5 rounded-[8px] rounded-tl-none relative"> <div class="comment__header flex flex-col"> <a class="text-sm link-styled no-underline leading-open comment__author truncate pr-6" href="https://uk.linkedin.com/in/teraallas?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_actor-name" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_actor-name" data-tracking-will-navigate> Tera Allas CBE </a> <p class="!text-xs text-color-text-low-emphasis leading-[1.33333] mb-0.5 truncate comment__author-headline">Director of Research and Economics at McKinsey &amp; Company</p> <span class="text-xs text-color-text-low-emphasis comment__duration-since absolute right-6 top-1 inline-block"> 11mo </span> <div class="ellipsis-menu absolute right-0 top-0 !mr-0.5 babybear:!-top-0.5" data-test-id="comment__ellipsis-menu" data-feed-action="show-comment-dropdown"> <div class="collapsible-dropdown flex items-center relative hyphens-auto"> <button class="ellipsis-menu__trigger collapsible-dropdown__button btn-md btn-tertiary cursor-pointer !py-[6px] !px-1 flex items-center rounded-[50%] 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href="/uas/login?session_redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fpulse%2Fnovember-data-brings-early-signs-stabilization-hmmlc&amp;trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_ellipsis-menu-semaphore-sign-in-redirect&amp;guestReportContentType=COMMENT&amp;_f=guest-reporting" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_ellipsis-menu-semaphore-sign-in-redirect" data-tracking-will-navigate data-item-type="semaphore" data-semaphore-content-type="COMMENT" data-semaphore-content-urn="urn:li:comment:(urn:li:ugcPost:7140034065142792193,7141161078012432384)" data-semaphore-tracking-prefix="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_ellipsis-menu-semaphore" data-is-logged-in="false" data-modal="semaphore__toggle" class="semaphore__toggle visited:text-color-text-secondary ellipsis-menu__semaphore ellipsis-menu__item-button flex items-center w-full p-1 cursor-pointer font-sans text-sm font-bold 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data-tracking-will-navigate>Resolution Foundation</a> excellent report on changing labour markets. A lot of the analysis is pre-pandemic, but many of the structural forces are still at play. This is the source for the graph shown in earlier comment (which shows job-switchers gain much better pay increases than job-stayers). <a class="link" href="https://economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Changing-jobs.pdf?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment-text" target="_self" rel="nofollow" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment-text" data-tracking-will-navigate>https://economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Changing-jobs.pdf</a></p> <!----> </div> <!----> <!----> </div> <div class="comment__actions flex flex-row flex-wrap items-center ml-2" aria-label="Comment Controls"> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/signup/cold-join?session_redirect=%2Fpulse%2Fnovember-data-brings-early-signs-stabilization-hmmlc%3Ftrk%3Darticle-ssr-frontend-pulse_more-articles_related-content-card&amp;trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_like" class="comment__action inline-block font-sans text-xs text-color-text-low-emphasis cursor-pointer" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_like" data-tracking-will-navigate> <div class="flex flex-row items-center "> <icon class="action-btn__icon w-2 mr-0.5" data-svg-class-name="action-btn__icon--svg" data-delayed-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/70k0g8kmgdfjjymflqqzipzxj"> </icon> <span class="action-btn__button-text inline-block align-baseline"> Like </span> </div> </a> <span class="before:middot font-sans text-s text-color-text-low-emphasis"></span> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/signup/cold-join?session_redirect=%2Fpulse%2Fnovember-data-brings-early-signs-stabilization-hmmlc%3Ftrk%3Darticle-ssr-frontend-pulse_more-articles_related-content-card&amp;trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_reply" class="comment__action inline-block font-sans text-xs text-color-text-low-emphasis cursor-pointer comment__reply" data-feed-action="replyToComment" data-feed-control="reply" data-feed-action-category="EXPAND" data-feed-action-type="expandReplyBox" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_reply" data-tracking-will-navigate> <div class="flex flex-row items-center "> <icon class="action-btn__icon w-2 mr-0.5" data-svg-class-name="action-btn__icon--svg" data-delayed-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/4ol9mo4lxvobj5ww3va90wz1o"> </icon> <span class="action-btn__button-text inline-block align-baseline"> Reply </span> </div> </a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/signup/cold-join?session_redirect=%2Fpulse%2Fnovember-data-brings-early-signs-stabilization-hmmlc%3Ftrk%3Darticle-ssr-frontend-pulse_more-articles_related-content-card&amp;trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_reactions" class="comment__reactions-count font-sans text-xs text-color-text-low-emphasis border-l-1 border-solid border-color-border-low-emphasis pl-1 mx-1" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_reactions" data-tracking-will-navigate> 1&nbsp;Reaction </a> <span class="comment__reactions-count font-sans text-xs text-color-text-low-emphasis border-l-1 border-solid border-color-border-low-emphasis pl-1 mx-1 hidden"> 2&nbsp;Reactions </span> </div> </div> </section> <!----> <section class="comment flex grow-1 items-stretch leading-[16px] comment-with-action my-1.5"> <div> <a href="https://uk.linkedin.com/in/teraallas?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_actor-image" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_actor-image" data-tracking-will-navigate> <img class="inline-block relative rounded-[50%] w-4 h-4 " data-delayed-url="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/C4D03AQGJ9b3_S_4N1w/profile-displayphoto-shrink_400_400/profile-displayphoto-shrink_400_400/0/1620467111305?e=2147483647&amp;v=beta&amp;t=g44xDycZ5EBA249T8xe7LnnLhJHG9TyiI4jF70ypWNU" data-ghost-classes="bg-color-entity-ghost-background" data-ghost-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/9c8pery4andzj6ohjkjp54ma2" alt="Tera Allas CBE"> </a> </div> <div class="w-full min-w-0"> <div class="comment__body ml-0.5 mb-1 pt-1 pr-1.5 pb-1 pl-1.5 rounded-[8px] rounded-tl-none relative"> <div class="comment__header flex flex-col"> <a class="text-sm link-styled no-underline leading-open comment__author truncate pr-6" href="https://uk.linkedin.com/in/teraallas?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_actor-name" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_actor-name" data-tracking-will-navigate> Tera Allas CBE </a> <p class="!text-xs text-color-text-low-emphasis leading-[1.33333] mb-0.5 truncate comment__author-headline">Director of Research and Economics at McKinsey &amp; Company</p> <span class="text-xs text-color-text-low-emphasis comment__duration-since absolute right-6 top-1 inline-block"> 11mo </span> <div class="ellipsis-menu absolute right-0 top-0 !mr-0.5 babybear:!-top-0.5" data-test-id="comment__ellipsis-menu" data-feed-action="show-comment-dropdown"> <div class="collapsible-dropdown flex items-center relative hyphens-auto"> <button class="ellipsis-menu__trigger collapsible-dropdown__button btn-md btn-tertiary cursor-pointer !py-[6px] !px-1 flex items-center rounded-[50%] ellipsis-menu__trigger--small w-[32px] h-[32px] babybear:rotate-90 mamabear:!h-4 mamabear:!min-h-[32px] papabear:!h-4 papabear:!min-h-[32px]" aria-expanded="false" aria-label="Open menu" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_ellipsis-menu-trigger" tabindex="0"> <icon class="ellipsis-menu__trigger-icon m-0 p-0 centered-icon" data-delayed-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/c26vw8uiog92lvrqov98hvbxr"></icon> </button> <ul class="collapsible-dropdown__list hidden container-raised absolute w-auto overflow-y-auto flex-col items-stretch z-1 bottom-auto top-[100%]" role="menu" tabindex="-1"> <li class="ellipsis-menu__item border-t-1 border-solid border-color-border-low-emphasis first-of-type:border-none flex"> <a href="/uas/login?session_redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fpulse%2Fnovember-data-brings-early-signs-stabilization-hmmlc&amp;trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_ellipsis-menu-semaphore-sign-in-redirect&amp;guestReportContentType=COMMENT&amp;_f=guest-reporting" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_ellipsis-menu-semaphore-sign-in-redirect" data-tracking-will-navigate data-item-type="semaphore" data-semaphore-content-type="COMMENT" data-semaphore-content-urn="urn:li:comment:(urn:li:ugcPost:7140034065142792193,7141159004554059776)" data-semaphore-tracking-prefix="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment_ellipsis-menu-semaphore" data-is-logged-in="false" data-modal="semaphore__toggle" class="semaphore__toggle visited:text-color-text-secondary ellipsis-menu__semaphore ellipsis-menu__item-button flex items-center w-full p-1 cursor-pointer font-sans text-sm font-bold link-styled focus:link-styled link:no-underline active:bg-color-background-container-tint focus:bg-color-background-container-tint hover:bg-color-background-container-tint outline-offset-[-2px]"> <!----> <icon class="ellipsis-menu__item-icon text-color-text h-[24px] w-[24px] mr-1" data-delayed-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/iq0x9q37wj214o129ai1yjut"> </icon> Report this comment </a> <!----> </li> <!----> </ul> <!----> </div> </div> </div> <div class="attributed-text-segment-list__container relative mt-1 mb-1.5 babybear:mt-0 babybear:mb-0.5"> <p class="attributed-text-segment-list__content text-color-text !text-sm whitespace-pre-wrap break-words comment__text babybear:mt-0.5" dir="ltr">Fascinating analysis as always, and great to have these more-timely indicators than those available from official sources (especially in the UK, where official labour market statistics are problematic at the moment). Fully agree with the take on hybrid work / #WFH -- in employees' minds, it's here to stay, not least because of the enormous time, money, and "mental effort" savings it conveys; and yet employers are not ready to embrace it. As the labour market cools down, the balance of power may shift, but I suspect enlightened employers will find competitive advantage in offering more flexibility (and possibly slightly lower pay), especially in areas where transport links are poor. Below are a few links to recent relevant posts, but also a chart from the <a class="link" href="https://uk.linkedin.com/company/resolution-foundation?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment-text" target="_self" data-tracking-control-name="article-ssr-frontend-pulse_x-social-details_comments-action_comment-text" data-tracking-will-navigate>Resolution Foundation</a> showing a key reason for why people are still keen to move jobs at such a high rate: when inflation is high, the only way you can relatively easily get an inflation-beating pay rise, is by "marking yourself to market" and moving to another organisation. #dataisbeautiful </p> <!----> </div> <!----> <ul class="comment__images-content list-none pl-0 overflow-hidden " data-test-id="comment__images-content"> <li data-position="0"> <img class="lazy-load object-cover max-w-full" 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base-aside-card--link aside-article-card"> <!----> <div class="base-aside-card__media flex-shrink-0 mr-0.5 overflow-hidden relative rounded-md h-[54px] w-[95px]"> <img class="lazy-load base-aside-card__media-element w-[100px] h-full object-cover" data-delayed-url="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E12AQFE7Aac1P9GJw/article-cover_image-shrink_720_1280/article-cover_image-shrink_720_1280/0/1728075132516?e=2147483647&amp;v=beta&amp;t=-_eiWj4Wky6ECZ-P81CN6YaOipDpf-vhhap7AAM0dOY" data-ghost-url="https://static.licdn.com/aero-v1/sc/h/9l8dv1r8a09nem281grvopn9l" alt> <!----> </div> <div class="base-aside-card__info self-center pl-0.5 flex flex-col flex-1"> <h3 class="base-aside-card__title font-sans text-md font-bold text-color-text relative"> The jobs report's instant expectations shift <!----> </h3> <!----> <!----> <!----> <div class="base-aside-card__metadata font-sans text-sm leading-open font-regular text-color-text-low-emphasis mt-0.5"> <span class="base-aside-card__metadata-item"> 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aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="Bahasa Malaysia (Malay)" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-ms_MY" data-locale="ms_MY" role="menuitem" lang="ms_MY"> Bahasa Malaysia (Malay) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="Nederlands (Dutch)" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-nl_NL" data-locale="nl_NL" role="menuitem" lang="nl_NL"> Nederlands (Dutch) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="Norsk (Norwegian)" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-no_NO" data-locale="no_NO" role="menuitem" lang="no_NO"> Norsk (Norwegian) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="ਪੰਜਾਬੀ (Punjabi)" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-pa_IN" data-locale="pa_IN" role="menuitem" lang="pa_IN"> ਪੰਜਾਬੀ (Punjabi) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="Polski (Polish)" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-pl_PL" data-locale="pl_PL" role="menuitem" lang="pl_PL"> Polski (Polish) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="Português (Portuguese)" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-pt_BR" data-locale="pt_BR" role="menuitem" lang="pt_BR"> Português (Portuguese) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="Română (Romanian)" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-ro_RO" data-locale="ro_RO" role="menuitem" lang="ro_RO"> Română (Romanian) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="Русский (Russian)" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-ru_RU" data-locale="ru_RU" role="menuitem" lang="ru_RU"> Русский (Russian) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="Svenska (Swedish)" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-sv_SE" data-locale="sv_SE" role="menuitem" lang="sv_SE"> Svenska (Swedish) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="తెలుగు (Telugu)" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-te_IN" data-locale="te_IN" role="menuitem" lang="te_IN"> తెలుగు (Telugu) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="ภาษาไทย (Thai)" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-th_TH" data-locale="th_TH" role="menuitem" lang="th_TH"> ภาษาไทย (Thai) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="Tagalog (Tagalog)" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-tl_PH" data-locale="tl_PH" role="menuitem" lang="tl_PH"> Tagalog (Tagalog) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="Türkçe (Turkish)" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-tr_TR" data-locale="tr_TR" role="menuitem" lang="tr_TR"> Türkçe (Turkish) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="Українська (Ukrainian)" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-uk_UA" data-locale="uk_UA" role="menuitem" lang="uk_UA"> Українська (Ukrainian) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="Tiếng Việt (Vietnamese)" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-vi_VN" data-locale="vi_VN" role="menuitem" lang="vi_VN"> Tiếng Việt (Vietnamese) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="简体中文 (Chinese (Simplified))" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-zh_CN" data-locale="zh_CN" role="menuitem" lang="zh_CN"> 简体中文 (Chinese (Simplified)) </button> </li> <li class="language-selector__item" role="presentation"> <!-- Adding aria-label to both the li and the button because screen reader focus goes to button on desktop and li on mobile--> <button aria-label="正體中文 (Chinese (Traditional))" class="font-sans text-xs link block py-[5px] px-2 w-full hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-color-action hover:text-color-text-on-dark focus:bg-color-action focus:text-color-text-on-dark language-selector__link !font-regular" data-tracking-control-name="language-selector-zh_TW" data-locale="zh_TW" role="menuitem" lang="zh_TW"> 正體中文 (Chinese (Traditional)) </button> </li> <!----> </ul> <button class="language-selector__button 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