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class="article__opinion-type"> <a class="article__section" href="/idees-chroniques/">Chronique</a> </h2> <a class="article__author article__author-link" href="/signataires/sylvie-kauffmann/"> <img class="article__author-picture" src="https://img.lemde.fr/2017/09/22/0/0/0/0/108/108/60/0/cd62c21_403.jpg" alt="auteur" width="54" height="54"> <section class="article__author-description "> <p class="article__author-identity">Sylvie Kauffmann</p> <p class="article__author-job">Editorialiste au « Monde »</p> </section> </a> </section> <p class="article__desc article__desc--opinion">La guerre en Europe est bouleversée par deux tournants sur la scène internationale. Paradoxalement, Volodymyr Zelensky et Donald Trump convergent sur un concept : la « paix par la force », explique dans sa chronique Sylvie Kauffmann, éditorialiste au « Monde ».</p> <p class="meta meta__publisher meta__publisher--opinion"> <span class="meta__date">Publié le 20 novembre 2024 à 15h00, modifié le 21 novembre 2024 à 12h03</span> <span class="meta__reading-time meta__reading-time--opinion"> <span class="icon__reading-time icon__reading-time--opinion"></span> <span><span class="sr-only">Temps de </span>Lecture 3 min.</span> </span> <a class="meta__article-en-fr-url js-lang-switcher" href="/en/opinion/article/2024/11/20/the-arrival-of-north-korean-troops-and-trump-s-election-have-shifted-the-balance-in-ukraine_6733461_23.html" hreflang="en"> <span class="meta__article-en-fr-url-link">Read in English</span> </a> </p> <div class="share-btns meta meta__social meta__social--opinion "> <button class="js-lmd-modal-gift-not-sub-toggler lmd-btn-rounded lmd-btn-rounded--secondary 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class="article__wrapper article__content--restricted article__wrapper--premium"> <article class="article__content old__article-content-single"> <p class="article__paragraph "><span class="article__inner">D</span>eux tournants majeurs sur la scène mondiale viennent de donner un formidable coup d’accélérateur à la crise ukrainienne : l’irruption, en octobre, de <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2024/11/13/sur-le-front-russo-ukrainien-l-epreuve-du-feu-de-l-armee-nord-coreenne_6390855_3210.html">troupes nord-coréennes en Russie</a> pour prêter main-forte à l’armée de Vladimir Poutine et l’élection, le 5 novembre, de Donald Trump à la Maison Blanche.</p> <section class="catcher catcher--favoris"> <div class="catcher__content"><span class="catcher__title catcher__title--hide">Lire aussi |</span><span class="catcher__desc"> <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2024/11/23/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-vladimir-poutine-signe-une-loi-pour-annuler-les-dettes-des-soldats-russes_6398132_3210.html" class="js-article-read-also catcher--favoris__link" data-premium="">En direct, guerre en Ukraine : Kiev affirme que la Russie a tiré un missile balistique intercontinental sur la ville de Dnipro</a> </span> </div> <div class="catcher__favorite"> <button class="lmd-btn-icon lmd-btn-icon--primary lmd-btn-icon--m js-lmd-dropdown-favorite-toggler" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="true" aria-controls="lmd-dropdown-favorite" aria-label="Lire plus tard" data-article-id="3398251" data-position="lire aussi" data-url="https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2024/11/23/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-vladimir-poutine-signe-une-loi-pour-annuler-les-dettes-des-soldats-russes_6398132_3210.html" data-status=""> <span class="icon__favorites"></span> <span class="js-btn-icon-tooltip" aria-hidden="true">Lire plus tard</span> </button> </div> </section> <p class="article__paragraph ">Ces deux événements ont fait bouger les lignes dans un conflit qui a causé, en mille jours, des centaines de milliers de morts, qui mine la sécurité de l’Europe et implique de plus en plus directement de multiples puissances, notamment nucléaires. Le premier événement, l’arrivée d’au moins 10 000 soldats de Corée du Nord en Russie, en complément de la livraison d’importants volumes d’armes de ce pays, a marqué une véritable internationalisation du conflit : pour la première fois depuis les invasions mongoles, un pays d’Asie orientale intervient sur un théâtre de guerre européen, inversant la tendance historique d’interventions occidentales en Asie.</p> <div id="inread_top" class="dfp-slot dfp__slot dfp__inread dfp-unloaded" data-format="inread_top" aria-hidden="true"></div> <p class="article__paragraph ">Ce bouleversement, qualifié de <em>« rupture »</em> par le président Emmanuel Macron, a poussé le président Joe Biden à <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2024/11/17/les-etats-unis-autorisent-l-ukraine-a-utiliser-des-missiles-a-longue-portee-en-russie_6399278_3210.html">autoriser l’Ukraine à frapper des cibles en territoire russe avec des missiles à longue portée américains</a> ATACMS, ce que Kiev a fait dès mardi 19 novembre. Trop tardive, la décision ne changera pas le cours de la guerre, mais elle engage davantage les Etats-Unis et, probablement, dans leur sillage, le Royaume-Uni et la France, qui ont livré à Kiev des missiles aux fonctions similaires.</p> <section class="catcher catcher--favoris"> <div class="catcher__content"><span class="catcher__title catcher__title--hide">Lire aussi |</span><span class="catcher__desc"> <span class="icon__premium"><span class="sr-only">Article réservé à nos abonnés</span></span> <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2024/11/19/guerre-en-ukraine-le-revirement-americain-sur-les-frappes-en-profondeur-juge-trop-tardif_6401950_3210.html" class="js-article-read-also catcher--favoris__link" data-premium="1">Pourquoi la décision des Etats-Unis d’autoriser l’Ukraine à utiliser des missiles ATACMS en Russie ne devrait pas changer le rapport de force</a> </span> </div> <div class="catcher__favorite"> <button class="lmd-btn-icon lmd-btn-icon--primary lmd-btn-icon--m js-lmd-dropdown-favorite-toggler" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="true" aria-controls="lmd-dropdown-favorite" aria-label="Lire plus tard" data-article-id="3398369" data-position="lire aussi" data-url="https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2024/11/19/guerre-en-ukraine-le-revirement-americain-sur-les-frappes-en-profondeur-juge-trop-tardif_6401950_3210.html" data-status=""> <span class="icon__favorites"></span> <span class="js-btn-icon-tooltip" aria-hidden="true">Lire plus tard</span> </button> </div> </section> <p class="article__paragraph ">Le deuxième événement change la donne diplomatique, car le règlement du conflit ukrainien est une promesse de campagne de Donald Trump, qui sera au pouvoir dans deux mois. Contrairement aux autres Européens, Volodymyr Zelensky, le président ukrainien, lui, a anticipé ce retour. Il l’a même souhaité à certains égards, tant les hésitations de l’administration Biden ont coûté aux forces ukrainiennes. La combinaison de ces deux événements ouvre une période à la fois dangereuse, car chaque partie va chercher à renforcer sa position en vue d’un dénouement possible, mais aussi porteuse d’une nouvelle dynamique.</p> <h2 class="article__sub-title">Levier possible dans une négociation</h2> <p class="article__paragraph ">Une phrase dans le message de félicitations adressé par Zelensky à Trump, le 6 novembre, mérite d’être relevée : le président ukrainien dit apprécier chez le président élu américain son approche de la <em>« paix par la force »</em>. Ce concept, cher à l’empereur Hadrien, est développé par Robert O’Brien, qui fut le conseiller à la sécurité nationale de Trump de 2019 à 2021, dans un <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/return-peace-strength-trump-obrien" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="Nouvelle fenêtre" >article publié en juin par la revue <em>Foreign Affairs</em></a>. L’ex-conseiller de Trump reproche à l’administration Biden d’avoir, tout en fournissant une aide militaire importante à l’Ukraine, <em>« traîné les pieds pour envoyer à Kiev le type d’armes nécessaires pour réussir »</em>. Trump, prédit-il, voudrait un règlement négocié de la guerre pour <em>« mettre fin au massacre tout en préservant la sécurité de l’Ukraine »</em> ; cela impliquerait de <em>« continuer à fournir une aide létale à l’Ukraine, financée par les Européens, tout en gardant la porte ouverte à la diplomatie »</em>, avec un <em>« certain degré d’imprévisibilité » </em>pour déstabiliser Moscou.</p> <p class="reading-mode-only "><strong>Il vous reste 48.97% de cet article à lire. 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