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Mysteel解读：2023-2024产季大蒜种植成本分析-我的钢铁网
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03:45</span> <span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源：我的钢铁网</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="6917" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 20pt; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0cm 0cm 2.5pt;" align="center"> </p> <p style="text-indent: 21.1pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><strong>[</strong><strong>导语]</strong>中国是世界上最大的大蒜生产、消费和出口国，占领全球80%的大蒜市场，稳居全球第一大核心地位，种植历史悠久。广泛分布于中国的山东省、河南省和江苏省。其中山东金乡、山东兰陵、山东莱芜、河南杞县、河南中牟及江苏邳州为主要的商品蒜种植产区。另外，河北大名、山东商河、山东泰安及聊城为主要的蒜种种植产区。每年大蒜因大蒜行情不同、天气不同种植成本也不尽相同。‌下面我重点针对大蒜各主产区的种植成本结构、成本对比、增速以及与替代品成本之间的差异进行重点阐述。</p> <p style="text-indent: 21.1pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><strong>一、2023-2024产季中国大蒜种植成本大幅增加</strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"> <img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/24/736eafad73ca4e38b48661da65179b1d.jpg" alt="" width="491" height="300" /></p> <p style="text-align: right; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;" align="right"><span style="color: #bfbfbf;">数据来源：钢联数据</span></p> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center">图 1 中国大蒜农户种植成本及增速统计（单位：元/亩）</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;">2017-2023年间，中国大蒜农户种植成本维持在2500-4300元/亩，其中2018-2019年为农户种植成本最低年份，在2581元/亩。2023-2024年为农户种植成本最高年份，为4307元/亩，涨幅为24.09%。尽管今年大蒜种植成本增加，新季大蒜种植面积仍扩种。原因主要基于2022-2023季大蒜夏收季农户收益较高，周边农户跟风种植情况普遍。</p> <p style="text-indent: 21.1pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><strong>二、大蒜种植成本结构中蒜种成本增幅最大</strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;">中国大蒜种植群体主要分为农户和包地户。其中农户的种植成本主要包括：人工成本、蒜种成本、肥料成本、机械成本、农膜成本、农药成本、灌溉成本、包装成本、装卸车、勾膜成本等约十大类型。</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"> </p> <p style="text-align: right; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;" align="right"><span style="color: #bfbfbf;">数据来源：钢联数据</span></p> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><img src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/24/cf23695236124af3a207ae1c7dc640fb.jpg" alt="" width="491" height="265" /></p> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center">图 2 2023-2024季中国大蒜农户种植成本占比统计（单位：%）</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;">2023-2024季中国大蒜农户种植成本占比中，人工成本、蒜种成本、施肥成本占比最高，占比分别为36.32%、32.83%和15.35%。其次为农药成本、机械成本和灌溉成本，占比分别为2.31%、2.03%和0.43%。最后为农膜成本、勾膜成本、包装成本和装卸车成本占比最小，分别为0.99%、3.20%、0.43%和4.27%。综合来看本产季蒜种占比大幅上升，主要原因为蒜种价格大涨令农户种植成本上升。</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"> </p> <p style="text-align: right; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;" align="right"><span style="color: #bfbfbf;">数据来源：钢联数据</span></p> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><img src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/24/f04fe27a4ed14041abd4c9dfeaeaf1db.jpg" alt="" width="491" height="265" /></p> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center">图 3 2023-2024季中国大蒜包地户种植成本占比统计（单位：%）</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;">2023-2024季中国大蒜包地户种植成本占比中，地租为重要的一项成本构成，能够占到19.37%，这也是包地户较农户成本增加的主要部分。包地根据土地性质不同，分为：沙地、淤地、半淤半沙三种，沙地种植大蒜不容易保留水分，产量较低，地租相对便宜；半淤半沙既能留住水分又较容易采挖，地租属于中间水平；淤地产量较高，地租较贵。根据不同土质不同地块综合分析，本产季平均地租在1138元/亩。</p> <p style="text-indent: 21.1pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"><strong>三、中国大蒜六大主产区中江苏邳州种植成本最高</strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"> </p> <p style="text-align: right; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;" align="right"><span style="color: #bfbfbf;">数据来源：钢联数据</span></p> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/24/5b4e2a3b49a142019e11bbb1c9808467.jpg" alt="" width="480" height="288" /></p> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center">图 4 2023-2024季中国大蒜主产区农户种植成本统计（单位：%）</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;">中国大蒜六大主产区大蒜种植品种有所不同。其中山东金乡县、莱芜区、河南杞县、中牟县以种植杂交红蒜为主，主要做原皮蒜。山东兰陵县种植主要以四六瓣白蒜为主，小射阳、小红皮为辅。江苏邳州主要以种植杂交红蒜和白蒜为主，农户管理精细。</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;">从各产区农户种植成本中可以看出江苏邳州市和山东兰陵县大蒜种植成本较高，主要原因为当地多为农户种植，采用精细化管理和种植，蒜种质量好。其中，江苏邳州产区平均种植成本在5281元/亩，山东兰陵平均种植成本在5074元/亩。</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;">种植成本最低的为莱芜及河南产区。主要原因为：山东莱芜为农户自行种植，且人均大蒜种植亩数较少，外采费用较低。河南产区为农业大省，人工成本较金乡等地低，另外由于河南省耕地面积广阔，对于大蒜产品质量要求不高，故大量采用机械化种植，大幅度的减少人工成本的投入。其中，山东莱芜产区平均种植成本在4171元/亩，河南中牟产区平均种植成本在4391元/亩。</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"> </p> <p style="text-align: right; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;" align="right"><span style="color: #bfbfbf;">数据来源：钢联数据</span></p> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><img src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/24/1296de6e9ef0489d83e6dae4005ca0e1.jpg" alt="" width="480" height="288" /></p> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center">图 5 2023-2024产季中国大蒜包地户种植成本统计（单位：%）</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;">另外包地户主要集中在山东金乡周边、河南杞县及中牟周边、江苏邳州周边包地。主要的副产区有山东菏泽产区、河南商丘产区、河南周口产区、徐州睢宁产区以及安徽亳州等地。山东莱芜及山东兰陵产区由于产区规模小，包地户较少。从包地户种植成本来看：江苏邳州成本最高，约为6281元/亩，其次为金乡产区，种植成本约为6081元/亩。也就是说，本产区包地户出售价格高于3.3元可以实现盈利。</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;"> </p> <p style="text-align: right; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;" align="right"><span style="color: #bfbfbf;">数据来源：钢联数据</span></p> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center"><img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/24/a9bc8765fdb34421997b9099b336beae.jpg" alt="" width="491" height="265" /></p> <p style="text-align: center; margin: 0cm;" align="center">图 6 中国大蒜主产区与替代品小麦种植成本对比（单位：元/亩）</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;">小麦为大蒜种植的主要替代品。从大蒜与小麦的种植成本对比中可以看出：‌大蒜的总成本高于小麦。具体来说，本季‌大蒜的平均种植成本为4307元/亩，‌而小麦的成本为588元/亩元。‌这一对比说明大蒜种植成本显著高于小麦。主要是因为大蒜种植涉及更高的种子、‌化肥、‌人工等费用。‌同时也反映了大蒜在种植难度、‌管理要求方面高于小麦。</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;">此外，‌大蒜的种植和收获过程相对复杂，‌需要更多人工，且机械化水平尚未普及，大蒜收获质量对于机械化水平要求较高，这也是大蒜种植成本持续居高不下的原因之一。‌</p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;">综合来看，随着近几年大蒜种植利润空间尚可，更多的农户和包地户加入到种植大蒜的行业中来。蒜种价格高企令中国大蒜种植成本与日俱增。但同时也可以看出，近几年大蒜的种植成本不断上升，种植大蒜的热度依旧有望延续到下一产季。外围种植户借助生地块产量高、当地人工成本低等优势大量在产区周边扩种。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a><a href='https://m.myagric.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>农产品</a>大蒜团队预计：未来，大蒜种植的外延性将更加凸显，种植成本或将处于偏高水平运行。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：朱珊珊 021-26090209 </br> 资讯监督：王涛 021-26090288 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.myagric.com/article/p-4125-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.myagric.com/article/p-4125-------------1.html" external class="more"> 查看更多<i class="arrow"></i> </a> </div> <div class="list-block recommend-list"> <ul> <li class="item"> <div class="news-title"> <a 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