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Mysteel解读：低库存支撑价格韧性，高供应抑制趋势反转——24年焦炭价格走势再分析-我的钢铁网
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<p><strong>今年二季度以来，焦炭价格仍表现出较强的韧性：</strong>即使钢厂连续三个月亏损（即期），实际亏损近期到达300元/吨以上，焦炭价格跌幅有限，甚至出现提涨。这主要是由于<strong>一季度钢厂压低焦炭库存，焦企谨慎提产；历史低位的</strong>低库存维持了价格韧性。</p> <p><strong>然而，随着淡季到来和钢厂减产，产能过剩加剧，焦炭价格仍有下行压力。</strong></p> <p><strong>总体来看，需求主导焦炭价格的核心逻辑不变，焦炭价格的长期走势仍然锚定在钢厂利润水平上。</strong></p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 415.577px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/04/bd8bfb9b7319432387cbfdf8fa6f5de5.png" width="600" height="415" /></p> <p> </p> <p><strong>【正文】</strong></p> <p><strong>一、二季度焦炭价格韧性得益于低库存</strong></p> <p>根据模型推算，江苏钢厂生产螺纹在二季度持续处于亏损状态（即期），并且根据市场调研，钢厂实际生产利润在进入六月后持续收缩并转为亏损，近期亏损一度超过300元/吨，亏损幅度创近两年最高水平。（图一）</p> <p>根据我们此前文章的结论（《还是钢老大说了算！——谈焦钢价格博弈的行业利润锚定点规律》 5月15日发布），在钢厂亏损时间较长、幅度较大的情况下，焦炭价格或早就应该开始下降，并且将面临多轮提降。但从5月至今，焦炭价格保持相对稳定，并且焦钢博弈显著加剧：</p> <p>· 5月至今焦炭共迎来三次提降和一次提涨，与4月底相比，产地焦炭出厂价格累计仅下跌150元/吨，明显小于钢价下跌幅度。（图二）</p> <p>· 钢厂对焦炭提降也并不像原先一般顺利，焦企多次以提涨抵制降价，并尝试争夺自主定价权，加剧焦钢企业之间的博弈。</p> <p><strong>直观上看，二季度焦钢价格的变化与我们此前研究得出的结论：“钢厂亏损加剧——</strong><strong>></strong><strong>钢厂提降焦炭”发生偏离。</strong></p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 336.677px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/04/aa4c1e5bc11240d3bfad99331fdc2ba4.png" width="600" height="336" /></p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 337.255px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/04/7f1f4c70ae93447cbfadf199891b3d59.png" width="600" height="337" /></p> <p><strong>焦炭价格得以维持价格韧性得益于一季度钢厂压低焦炭库存，以及焦企谨慎提产导致的历史低库存。</strong></p> <p>焦炭价格在年后经历6轮提降，焦化厂通过大幅减产应对，焦炭总库存持续下降，降幅超过23年同期水平。且从各环节看，焦炭库存均处于历史低点。（图三、四、五）</p> <p>而后随着市场情绪回暖，焦企利润得以修复：一季度即期亏损200元/吨，在5-6月收窄到微幅亏损30元/吨左右，且随着焦煤成本下移，焦企即期生产实现盈利并持续至今（图六）。</p> <p>但焦炭日均总产量未进一步上升。叠加今年钢厂保持原料低库存策略，即使旺季<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4262,7073-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁水产量</a>持续上升，仍刚需采购焦炭，强化了其价格韧性。（图三、四、五）</p> <p><strong>市场实践也表明，在高炉有限减产后，低位焦炭库存会降低钢厂利润对焦炭价格影响，维持了焦炭二季度以来价格的强韧。</strong></p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 324.122px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/04/ae6324daa8174ec181306b27b6b92fdd.png" width="600" height="324" /></p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 309.278px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/04/54aafe0e5b7f4c58b4fd0f92a7bc84a1.png" width="600" height="309" /></p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 339.218px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/04/cadcc4f1db2d44d5a2c65b723c68de6a.png" width="600" height="339" /></p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 294.475px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/04/5c9badb4721648c0864ddbf348f5d465.png" width="600" height="294" /></p> <p> </p> <p><strong>二、焦炭价格波动仍以“钢厂利润”为核心</strong></p> <p><strong>“焦炭库存”反映焦炭价格边际变化程度，但焦炭定价仍锚定“钢厂利润”。</strong></p> <p><strong>1. 期货盘面持续升水，现货价格难以跟涨</strong></p> <p><strong>上半年焦炭的期现基差结构表明：焦炭仍以需求定价为主导。</strong></p> <p>一季度末以来大部分时间焦炭期货处于升水状态（期货价格>现货价格），表明在焦企减产后供应下降、市场情绪回暖后，对未来需求预期增强。</p> <p>但焦炭基差没有相应收缩：虽然铁水产量在旺季上升，但由于钢铁行业的盈利预期偏弱，钢厂维持低库存运行等问题，即便焦炭库存处于历史低位，现货仍难以跟涨盘面。（图七）</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 301.402px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/04/b6464b94764c4b08afff693adf3a1f15.png" width="600" height="301" /></p> <p> </p> <p><strong>2. 低库存仅能够在边际上强化价格韧性，而非推动上涨</strong></p> <p>其次，我们将钢厂的焦炭库存作为新变量加入到原有模型中，通过历史数据分析，得出如下结论：</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/04/ebc24f389fb249e8b684f802a0c6b090.png" width="721" height="428" /></p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 335.113px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/04/e3ee916cc3094e0d8b9a60c3ea5a8bc7.png" width="600" height="335" /></p> <p> </p> <p><strong>整体看，目前焦炭定价逻辑为：“焦炭价格以铁水生产水平变化而波动，库存仅在边际上影响价格弹性，难以影响焦炭价格趋势（表一、图八）。</strong></p> <p> </p> <p><strong>三、产能过剩——焦炭价格弱势的核心矛盾</strong></p> <p><strong>从产业链角度看，由于焦化行业持续性产能过剩，焦炭价格在黑色系中表现弱势：</strong></p> <p>截止2023年底，全国焦化产能约5.6亿吨，2023年全年焦炭产量4.9亿吨。从高炉与焦化产能利用率对比看，二者差距在2021年后快速扩大。焦炭产能利用率在2022年后就未超过80%，表明焦化行业的产能过剩严重，并且产能过剩程度高于钢铁行业。（图九）</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 318.881px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/04/6cdd776cc6a94cec913c737615a6a617.png" width="600" height="318" /></p> <p><strong>1. 短期：钢材淡季中焦炭价格博弈处下风</strong></p> <p>从现货端考虑，虽然低库存能够在旺季强化焦企的议价能力，但在淡季，产能过剩影响下的焦炭议价能力大幅降低，叠加当下焦企保持盈利，价格易跌难涨。</p> <p>据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>调研，随近期钢厂利润亏损扩大，目前已有多家钢厂进行轧线或高炉检修，预计铁水产量加快下滑，钢厂继续压缩焦炭需求：<strong>焦炭价格依然存在下降空间。</strong></p> <p><strong>2. 中长期：产能过剩加剧，需求定价逻辑不改</strong></p> <p>根据Mysteel最新调研：2024年全国焦化产能将继续增长，计划全年净新增1700余万吨，这将继续增加焦炭产能过剩的压力。（图十）</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 329.897px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/04/adf86962fd9740f997b1499538a66ddd.png" width="600" height="329" /></p> <p><strong>综上，钢厂利润仍是焦炭价格中枢的核心锚定点。在产能过剩问题未有效缓解前，焦炭低库存仅能够在边际上影响焦炭价格韧性，但难以推涨价格。</strong></p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：齐兴华 18851902002 </br> 资讯监督：齐兴华 18851902002 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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