Outlook

<!doctype html> <html lang="en"> <head> <meta charset="utf-8"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, viewport-fit=cover"> <title>Outlook</title> <meta property="og:title" content="Outlook"> <meta name="logo" href="/-/media/Examples/Irena/Images/Navigation/IRENA_logo.svg" /> <link rel="manifest" href="/assets/static/site.webmanifest"> <link rel="mask-icon" href="/assets/static/safari-pinned-tab.svg" color="#dd082b"> <meta name="msapplication-TileColor" content="#ffffff"> <meta name="theme-color" content="#ffffff"> <meta name="msapplication-config" content="/assets/static/browserconfig.json" /> <script>(function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start': new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src= 'https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f); })(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-PR8BPS9');</script> <link rel="preload" href="/assets/fonts/Graphik/Graphik-Light.woff2" as="font" crossorigin="anonymous" /> <link rel="preload" href="/assets/fonts/Graphik/Graphik-Semibold.woff2" as="font" crossorigin="anonymous" /> <link rel="preload" href="/assets/fonts/Graphik/Graphik-Bold.woff2" as="font" crossorigin="anonymous" /> <link rel="stylesheet" href="/assets/styles/default.css?v=36845025"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="/assets/styles/print.css?v=36845025" media="print"> <script> var IR_APP_CFG = { global: { errorMsg: 'An error occurred. 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<h2 class="Heading__text "> ENERGY TRANSITION </h2> </div> <ul class="m-Header__sublist "> <li> <a href="/Energy-Transition/Outlook" class="m-Header__sublink" >Outlook</a> </li> <li> <a href="/Energy-Transition/Partnerships" class="m-Header__sublink" >Partnerships</a> </li> <li> <a href="/Energy-Transition/Policy" class="m-Header__sublink" >Policy</a> </li> <li> <a href="/Energy-Transition/Technology" class="m-Header__sublink" >Technology</a> </li> <li> <a href="/Energy-Transition/Socio-economic-impact" class="m-Header__sublink" title="Scio-economic impact" >Socio-economic impact</a> </li> <li> <a href="/Energy-Transition/Country-engagement" class="m-Header__sublink" >Country engagement</a> </li> <li> <a href="/Energy-Transition/Project-Facilitation" class="m-Header__sublink" >Project Facilitation</a> </li> <li> <a href="/Energy-Transition/Planning" class="m-Header__sublink" >Planning</a> </li> <li> <a href="/Energy-Transition/Innovation" class="m-Header__sublink" >Innovation</a> </li> 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</h1> </div> <div class="m-SimpleTopHeader__sharing"> <div class="c-Sharing " data-jscomponent="Sharing"> <ul class="c-Sharing__list"> <li> <a class="c-Sharing__link c-Sharing__link--back" data-sharing-type="back" href="/Energy-Transition"><span>Back</span></a> </li> <li> <button class="c-Sharing__link" title="Share via Twitter" data-sharing-type="twitter" > <span class="icon " aria-hidden="true"> <svg><use xlink:href="/-/media/Images/IRENA/Agency/Social%20Icons/twitter.svg#sharing-twitter"></use></svg> </span> </button> </li> <li> <button class="c-Sharing__link" title="More " data-sharing-type="sharemore" > <span class="icon " aria-hidden="true"> <svg><use xlink:href="/assets/icons/sharing.svg#sharing-sharemore"></use></svg> </span> </button> <div class="c-Sharing__tooltip " data-sharing-tooltip="sharemore"> <ul class="c-Sharing__list"> <li> <button class="c-Sharing__link" title="Share via Facebook" data-sharing-type="facebook" 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class="m-SideMenu__list"> <li class="is--active" data-js="sideMenuMobileButton"> <a class="m-SideMenu__link is--active" href="/Energy-Transition/Outlook">Energy transition outlook</a> </li> <li class="" data-js="sideMenuMobileButton"> <a class="m-SideMenu__link " href="/Energy-Transition/Outlook/Tracking-progress">Tracking progress</a> </li> <li class="" data-js="sideMenuMobileButton"> <a class="m-SideMenu__link " href="/Energy-Transition/Outlook/Renewable-energy-roadmaps">Renewable energy roadmaps</a> </li> <li class="" data-js="sideMenuMobileButton"> <a class="m-SideMenu__link " href="/Energy-Transition/Outlook/Socio-economics-of-energy-transition">Socio-economics of energy transition</a> </li> <li class="" data-js="sideMenuMobileButton"> <a class="m-SideMenu__link " href="/Energy-Transition/Outlook/Policies-for-the-energy-transition">Policies for the energy transition</a> </li> </ul> </nav> </div> <div class="m-MediaContactBox m-MediaContactBox--stretched "> <div class="m-MediaContactBox__container"> <h3 class="Heading__text "> Contact us </h3> <a class="m-MediaContactBox__mail" href="mailto:remap@irena.org">Send a message</a> </div> <div class="m-MediaContactBox__icon"> <span class="icon" aria-hidden="true"> <svg> <use xlink:href="/assets/icons/mediacontactbox.svg#mediacontactbox-media" /> </svg> </span> </div> </div> <div class="m-AvailableTranslations is--expanded is--active " data-jsmodule="AvailableTranslations" data-togglecontent-init="mobile" data-togglecontent-collapse="mobile"> <div class="m-AvailableTranslations__button" data-togglecontent-button=""> <div class="Heading "> <h4 class="Heading__text "> Related Work: </h4> </div> </div> <div class="m-AvailableTranslations__content" data-togglecontent-content=""> <div class="m-AvailableTranslations__inner" data-togglecontent-inner=""> <ul class="m-AvailableTranslations__list"> <li> <a href="/Energy-Transition/Technology#costs-trends" class="m-AvailableTranslations__link" >Cost trends</a> </li> <li> <a href="/Data/View-data-by-topic/Energy-Transition/WETO-Energy-Supply" class="m-AvailableTranslations__link" >Energy Transition</a> </li> <li> <a href="/Energy-Transition/Technology/Cities-and-buildings" class="m-AvailableTranslations__link" >Heating and Cooling</a> </li> <li> <a href="/Energy-Transition/Innovation" class="m-AvailableTranslations__link" >Innovation and Technology</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="l-grid__m--10 l-grid__m__offset--2"> <div class="l-grid__row"> <div class="l-grid10__m--9 l-grid10__m__offset--1 " id="maf9a71b0ebaf4f3f98a65046ae1c9c63"> <div id="m3b033acf3c0848e2bff86abf9d589921" class="m-AnchorMenu colorBgInner--13" data-jsmodule="AnchorMenu"> <div class="m-AnchorMenu__container" data-anchormenu-container=""> <nav class="m-AnchorMenu__nav" data-anchormenu-nav=""> <ul class="m-AnchorMenu__list"> <li> <a class="m-AnchorMenu__link " href="#global-outlook">Global outlook</a> </li> <li> <a class="m-AnchorMenu__link " href="#regional-outlooks">Regional outlooks</a> </li> <li> <a class="m-AnchorMenu__link " href="#national-outlooks">National outlooks</a> </li> </ul> </nav> </div> </div> </div> <div class="l-grid10__m--9 l-grid10__m__offset--1 " id="global-outlook"> <div class="Heading Heading--border h3">  <h2 class="Heading__text "> Global outlook </h2> </div>  <div class="m-RichText " data-jsmodule="RichText">  <div class="c-RichText " data-jscomponent="RichText"> <p class="bigger">The success of the energy transition depends on a transformation of the global energy sector from fossil-based to zero-carbon sources by the second half of this century, reducing energy-related CO2 emissions to mitigate climate change and limit global temperature to within 1.5掳 of pre-industrial levels. </p> <p>However, the decarbonisation of the energy sector requires urgent action on a global scale to accelerate the global energy transition and realise both national and regional commitments. </p> <p>IRENA鈥檚 World energy transitions outlook charts an evolving pathway to achieving a climate-safe future in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Its 1.5掳C pathway offers a roadmap for accelerating the global energy transition by positioning electrification and efficiency as key drivers of change, backed by renewables, hydrogen and sustainable biomass.</p> </div>  </div>   <div class="m-Iframe" data-jsmodule="Iframe"> <iframe src="https://e.infogram.com/64cac52c-560f-4c2f-af0f-1adaf67e4627?src=embed" title="Figure 3" scrolling="no" height=760 frameborder="0" data-iframe-resizer="1"></iframe> </div>   <div class="m-RichText " data-jsmodule="RichText">  <div class="c-RichText " data-jscomponent="RichText"> <p>An aggressive energy efficiency strategy, combined with the ramping up of renewables to replace fossil fuels, is the most realistic path towards halving emissions by 2030. Yet phasing out fossil fuels is a complex task for countries heavily reliant on coal - especially given the imperatives of a just and fair transition for workers and communities. Concerted action and international co-operation are therefore essential for timely progress.</p> </div>  </div>   <div class="m-Iframe" data-jsmodule="Iframe"> <iframe src="https://e.infogram.com/d9dd3320-49b9-4c38-8e2b-4a0682bfb29e?src=embed" title="Figure 5" scrolling="no" height=760 frameborder="0" data-iframe-resizer="1"></iframe> </div>   <div class="m-RichText " data-jsmodule="RichText">  <div class="c-RichText " data-jscomponent="RichText"> <p>The 1.5°C Scenario will require investments of USD 5.7 trillion per year until 2030. Investment decisions are long-lived and the risks of stranded assets are high, so decisions must be guided by long-term logic. The World energy transitions outlook estimates that USD 0.7 trillion in annual investments in fossil fuels should be redirected towards energy transition technologies. While most of the additional capital is expected to come from the private sector, a doubling of public financing will be required to catalyse private finance and create an enabling environment for a transition that brings optimal socio-economic gains, including transition-related jobs and GDP. </p> <p>Furthermore, a comprehensive set of policies covering all technological avenues is needed to achieve the necessary levels of deployment by 2030. Only a holistic global policy framework can bring countries together to orchestrate a just transition that strengthens international finance flows, capacities and technologies, and leaves no one behind. In turn, progressive policy and regulatory measures will generate greater benefits from the energy transition for all peoples, nations and regions of the world.</p> </div>  </div>   <div class="m-Iframe" data-jsmodule="Iframe"> <iframe src="https://e.infogram.com/db68229b-7545-47cd-a2df-3ac4b31a47ad?src=embed" title="Figure 9" scrolling="no" height=760 frameborder="0" data-iframe-resizer="1"></iframe> </div>  <div class="m-HighlightedPublication m-HighlightedPublication--single "> <div class="m-HighlightedPublication__item "> <a href="/Publications/2023/Jun/World-Energy-Transitions-Outlook-2023" class="m-HighlightedPublication__container"> <div class="m-HighlightedPublication__image"> <picture><source media="(min-width: 2540px)" srcset="/-/media/Images/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2023/Jun/WETO-2023-Cover.png?w=412&h=582&as=1&cc=1&hash=6F78BEB0651BB139FE96D2AD50319D31" /><source srcset="/-/media/Images/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2023/Jun/WETO-2023-Cover.png?w=206&h=291&as=1&bc=ffffff&cc=1&hash=DA9F946AFAEE32AE597D86D4B4063347 1x, /-/media/Images/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2023/Jun/WETO-2023-Cover.png?w=412&h=582&as=1&cc=1&hash=6F78BEB0651BB139FE96D2AD50319D31 2x" /><img alt="" loading="lazy" src="/-/media/Images/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2023/Jun/WETO-2023-Cover.png?w=68&h=97&as=1&bc=ffffff&cc=1&hash=40DE7AEDDD206431F3937B181E925469" /></picture> </div> <div class="m-HighlightedPublication__content"> <span class="m-HighlightedPublication__label">FOCUS ON</span> <div class="Heading "> <h2 class="Heading__text "> World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023: 1.5°C Pathway </h2> </div> <div class="m-HighlightedPublication__text"> <p>IRENA鈥檚 1.5掳C Scenario, set out in the World Energy Transitions Outlook, presents a pathway to achieve the 1.5掳C target by 2050, positioning electrification and efficiency as key transition drivers, enabled by renewable energy, clean hydrogen and sustainable biomass.</p> </div> <span class="m-HighlightedPublication__linktext">View</span> <div class="m-HighlightedPublication__filesWrapper"> <span class="m-HighlightedPublication__filesLabel">Available as:</span> <ul class="m-HighlightedPublication__files"> <li>PDF</li> </ul> </div> </div> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="l-grid10__m--9 l-grid10__m__offset--1 " id="regional-outlooks"> <div class="Heading Heading--border h3">  <h2 class="Heading__text "> Regional outlooks </h2> </div>  <div class="m-RichText " data-jsmodule="RichText">  <div class="c-RichText " data-jscomponent="RichText"> <p>Representing core components of its global outlook, the Agency鈥檚 regional energy transition outlooks provide a more nuanced exploration of both the technical potential and the socio-economic benefits of the energy transition at the regional level. Drawing on analyses of renewable energy markets, employment, innovation, costs and capacities, these serve as the basis for informed development strategies and strengthened regional cooperation to both accelerate the progress toward, and maximise the benefits from, the global transition to renewables.</p> </div>  </div>   <div class="m-BoxRelatedContent " data-jsmodule="BoxRelatedContent" data-boxrelatedcontent-space="" id="m624787a4cc654475886056b994fff18e"> <div class="swiper-container"> <div class="Heading m-BoxRelatedContent__heading Heading--border"> <h3 class="Heading__text"> REmap regional reports </h3> </div> <div class="swiper-navigation is--hide"> <button class="icon icon--swiper swiper-button-prev"> <svg><use xlink:href="/assets/icons/arrows.svg#arrows-swiper"></use></svg> </button> <button class="icon icon--swiper swiper-button-next"> <svg><use xlink:href="/assets/icons/arrows.svg#arrows-swiper"></use></svg> </button> </div> <ul class="swiper-wrapper"> <li 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