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type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","item":{"@id":"https://www.afr.com/wealth","name":"Wealth"},"position":1},{"@type":"ListItem","item":{"@id":"https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing","name":"Investing"},"position":2}]}</script><ul class="beb2a16855396a5a95bd" data-testid="ArticleBreadcrumb-Links"><li class="ea4a3a24a4e0527bdedd"><a class="afe60c583f6ed0a32731" href="/wealth">Wealth</a></li><li class="ea4a3a24a4e0527bdedd"><a class="afe60c583f6ed0a32731" href="/wealth/investing">Investing</a></li></ul><button class="_716579094c3629694276" type="button">Print article</button></div><header class="_693893ae55902f49ec3e"><p class="_0f7daf472713d311bf2d">Opinion</p><h1 class="_4586f4e03f8e3136c57a">Buffett’s $499b cash hoard is an early warning signal</h1><p class="cf7e68400d4a2438fd54">The Berkshire Hathaway chief executive does not claim to be an expert at market predictions, but he knows when stocks are overpriced.</p><span class="_3bd8c88d1706a9f75b41"><span class="e7555d2b8069d2639f43"><strong>Nir Kaissar</strong></span></span></header><div class="_47207bf25e6443e48904"><section class="_7302278d284fb75d742b"><div class="_4d22830be8e035459d36" data-testid="ArticleTimestamp"><time data-testid="ArticleTimestamp-time">Nov 23, 2024 – 2.01pm</time></div><div class="_2a6dc840ff6bc204ff53" data-testid="ArticleTools"><div class="_9f146e4c46884f388d0e"><button aria-describedby="articleToolsLoginTooltip" class="_13dba38c2689588db954 _7cd6d3a619318b4274cf" data-click-outside-ignore="true" data-testid="SaveArticle-button" type="button"><span class="_82522fbabfe2be1d6f63"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" class="dd6db77aa2c85e94be85" focusable="false" height="1em" aria-hidden="true" width="1em"><path stroke="#111" stroke-width="1.2" d="M6.607 5c0-.221.179-.4.4-.4H17c.22 0 .4.18.4.4v13.077a.4.4 0 0 1-.63.328l-3.851-2.702a1.6 1.6 0 0 0-1.838 0l-3.85 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class="_7653fd52bc3d0a84caca _7c5f7f871bf4797f6a64"><div class="d747b0326f1285bf4d90" id="endOfArticle"><p>Berkshire Hathaway reported its stock holdings last week — a widely anticipated quarterly update of Warren Buffett’s latest trades. There were some notable ones, including the addition of Domino’s Pizza to Berkshire’s portfolio and <a href="https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/buffett-halves-his-apple-stake-in-116b-stock-dump-20240803-p5jz7j">more trimming of its stake in Apple</a>.</p><p>But those moves have been overshadowed by Berkshire’s $US325 billion ($499 billion) cash hoard, nearly double the company’s cash balance at year-end, and the most Buffett has ever amassed. It also comes at a time when Buffett’s favourite valuation gauge — a ratio of <a href="https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/markets-are-dangerously-bullish-this-is-the-crucial-number-to-watch-20241118-p5krf2">the stock market’s value</a> relative to the size of the US economy – is at a record high.</p><div class="_398b6c5e39701f15a1a2">Loading...<figure></figure><figure></figure><figure></figure><figure></figure></div><p class="_1268f19c7f6065fd8869">Bloomberg Opinion</p><div></div></div><div class="a3b28a4f67a674b57863" data-testid="ArticleFooter"><div class="_9e5858bb5e9aa47354b4"><div class="_9f146e4c46884f388d0e"><button aria-describedby="articleFooterLoginTooltip" class="_13dba38c2689588db954 _7cd6d3a619318b4274cf" data-click-outside-ignore="true" data-testid="SaveArticle-button" type="button"><span class="_82522fbabfe2be1d6f63"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" class="dd6db77aa2c85e94be85" focusable="false" height="1em" aria-hidden="true" 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Berkshire Hathaway chief executive does not claim to be an expert at market predictions, but he knows when stocks are overpriced.","allowComments":false,"body":"\u003Cp\u003EBerkshire Hathaway reported its stock holdings last week — a widely anticipated quarterly update of Warren Buffett’s latest trades. There were some notable ones, including the addition of Domino’s Pizza to Berkshire’s portfolio and \u003Cx-placeholder id=\"affed515bc1496c330dfad8d1df4a734031fc770\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut those moves have been overshadowed by Berkshire’s $US325 billion ($499 billion) cash hoard, nearly double the company’s cash balance at year-end, and the most Buffett has ever amassed. It also comes at a time when Buffett’s favourite valuation gauge — a ratio of \u003Cx-placeholder id=\"c527d4a64e2f53e4c0170ec789014ee87ae67f09\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E relative to the size of the US economy – is at a record high.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"620b6de4ff7ab2f903b060ded1c58a0ba4cbfc2e\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETaken together, it might seem as if Buffett is trying to time the market’s next downturn, but what he’s doing is more subtle and thoughtful — and instructive for investors.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBuffett is the first to acknowledge that he has no ability to predict where the market is headed in the near term, including the timing of its occasional meltdowns. What he can do, however, is estimate how much stocks are likely to pay over the longer term and use that estimate to decide how much to allocate to stocks relative to other assets.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIt’s an important distinction. There’s a difference between betting on turns in the market, which is extremely difficult if not impossible to do profitably, and deciding how to allocate to various assets based on their expected longer-term returns, which can be reliably although not perfectly estimated. In other words, it’s the difference between betting on the market’s unknowable path versus its likely destination.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThat principle appears to have long guided Buffett’s decisions. Berkshire’s allocation to cash as a percentage of the company’s assets has varied considerably over the years, from 1 per cent in 1994 to closer to 28 per cent today, and everything in between. The record shows Buffett consistently raising Berkshire’s cash allocation as stock valuations rise during booms — and expected returns consequently decline — and drawing down cash as opportunities arise. It also confirms that Buffett has little talent for market timing, as he readily admits.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFor instance, during the internet bubble in the late 1990s, Buffett grew his cash allocation to 13 per cent of assets in 1998 from just 1 per cent four years earlier as valuations swelled. But he drew down his cash allocation to 3 per cent in 1999, about a year before the bubble burst, presumably because he found an attractive target. In retrospect, he probably would have been better off sitting on that cash for another year when bargains became plentiful, but not even the great Buffett can see the turns coming. He did the next best thing, though, which is employ almost all of Berkshire’s cash through the downturn.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThen he pivoted again in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis. Buffett began raising his cash allocation substantially when the market recovered in 2002, eventually topping out at 25 per cent of assets in 2005. Berkshire’s cash allocation started to dip in 2006, mostly because the value of its assets continued to rise. But when a whiff of the coming crisis sent stock prices tumbling beginning in late 2007, Buffett deployed his cash and eventually drew it down to 7 per cent of assets in 2010, in part on account of his famously shrewd investment in Goldman Sachs at the height of the crisis.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHow does Buffett do it? He’s betting on a simple principle, which is that valuations and future returns are inversely related. That is, when assets are expensive, future returns tend to be lower, and vice versa.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIt doesn’t even matter which valuation measure you use because they generally say the same thing. Buffett’s preferred gauge of the stock market — its value relative to gross domestic product — surged in the late 1990s and again in the mid-2000s, signalling lower stock returns ahead. Both times, cash yields were around 5 per cent, and expected stock returns weren’t much higher, if at all. Given those choices, it made sense to have some cash around.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EToday, the market-to-GDP ratio is even higher than it was in the late 1990s and mid-2000s, implying even lower future returns. Meanwhile, cash pays about the same as it did then. No wonder Berkshire’s cash allocation is the highest since at least the mid-1980s.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBuffett is far from alone. In fact, I can’t recall a time when there’s been so much agreement that US stocks are poised to disappoint, at least by historical standards. The biggest money managers, including BlackRock, The Vanguard Group, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Asset Management all expect the US stock market to fall well short of its historical return of 9 per cent a year over the past 150 years.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIt’s hard to argue with that consensus. Stock investors essentially get paid three ways. One is shareholder yield, which is a combination of dividends and buybacks. A second is earnings growth resulting from higher sales or expanding profit margins. And the third is change in valuation.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHere’s how things look: The S&amp;P 500 Index’s dividend yield is 1.3 per cent, and its most recent 12-month buyback yield was 1.8 per cent. As for earnings, analysts expect sales to grow by about 4 per cent a year over the next several years, which is in line with historical sales growth. They also expect record high profit margins to stay where they are rather than contract — a generous assumption, but let’s go with it. And as for valuation, the S&amp;P 500 trades at 25 times forward earnings, compared with an average of 18 times since 1990. To get back to average, its valuation would have to contract by about 3 per cent a year for 10 years, if a sharper contraction like the one in 2022 doesn’t come along sooner.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAll of that adds up to an expected return of about 4 per cent a year for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade, which, probably not coincidentally, is roughly in line with the average expected return calculated by the big money mavens. It’s also not terribly exciting when compared with the 4.4 per cent yield on risk-free three-month Treasury bills.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ENo one can reliably anticipate the market’s path, which is why you’ll never see Buffett make all-in, all-out moves around the market. But the destination is easier to estimate, particularly when the market is glaringly expensive. And when that destination promises so little relative to cash, watch Buffett beef up his rainy-day allocation.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"deed00c964e5b0998f9ef71d9af43893e07d948d\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"f122045eb119e16734d9f3f08fff4b2eb4132fda\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E","bodyPlaceholders":{"620b6de4ff7ab2f903b060ded1c58a0ba4cbfc2e":{"data":{"altText":"","aspect":1.5,"autoCrop":false,"caption":"Warren Buffett is one of the richest people in the world, and perhaps the most prolific investor ever.","credit":"Bloomberg","cropWidth":756,"fileName":"54a257f480f869e9540b533b058a19d53c711f79","id":"54a257f480f869e9540b533b058a19d53c711f79","offsetX":0,"offsetY":31,"originalHeight":null,"originalWidth":null,"source":"The Washington Post","zoom":0.378},"type":"image"},"affed515bc1496c330dfad8d1df4a734031fc770":{"data":{"newTab":false,"noFollow":false,"text":"more trimming of its stake in 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