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href="https://azb.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D9%BE%DB%8C%D8%AA%D8%B1_%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B1%DA%86%DB%8C%D9%86" title="پیتر تورچین – South Azerbaijani" lang="azb" hreflang="azb" data-title="پیتر تورچین" data-language-autonym="تۆرکجه" data-language-local-name="South Azerbaijani" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>تۆرکجه</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Turchin" title="Peter Turchin – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Peter Turchin" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piotr_Tourtchine" title="Piotr Tourtchine – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Piotr Tourtchine" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-he mw-list-item"><a href="https://he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%A4%D7%99%D7%98%D7%A8_%D7%98%D7%95%D7%A8%D7%A6%27%D7%99%D7%9F" title="פיטר טורצ'ין – Hebrew" lang="he" hreflang="he" data-title="פיטר טורצ'ין" data-language-autonym="עברית" data-language-local-name="Hebrew" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>עברית</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-arz mw-list-item"><a href="https://arz.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%AA%D8%B1_%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%B4%D9%8A%D9%86" title="بيتر تورشين – Egyptian Arabic" lang="arz" hreflang="arz" data-title="بيتر تورشين" data-language-autonym="مصرى" data-language-local-name="Egyptian Arabic" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>مصرى</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ja mw-list-item"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%94%E3%83%BC%E3%82%BF%E3%83%BC%E3%83%BB%E3%82%BF%E3%83%BC%E3%83%81%E3%83%B3" title="ピーター・ターチン – Japanese" lang="ja" hreflang="ja" data-title="ピーター・ターチン" 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.mw-parser-output .infobox-table th,body.skin--responsive .mw-parser-output .infobox-table td{padding-left:inherit;padding-right:inherit}}</style><table class="infobox biography vcard"><tbody><tr><th colspan="2" class="infobox-above" style="font-size:125%;"><div class="fn">Peter Turchin</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="infobox-image"><span class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Frameless"><a href="/wiki/File:Peter_Turchin_2020.webp" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="Portrait of Peter Turchin" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f4/Peter_Turchin_2020.webp/220px-Peter_Turchin_2020.webp.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="147" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f4/Peter_Turchin_2020.webp/330px-Peter_Turchin_2020.webp.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f4/Peter_Turchin_2020.webp/440px-Peter_Turchin_2020.webp.png 2x" data-file-width="2560" data-file-height="1707" /></a></span></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Born</th><td class="infobox-data"><span style="display:none"> (<span class="bday">1957-05-22</span>) </span>22 May 1957<span class="noprint ForceAgeToShow"> (age 67)</span><br /><div style="display:inline" class="birthplace"><a href="/wiki/Obninsk" title="Obninsk">Obninsk</a>, Soviet Union</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Nationality</th><td class="infobox-data category">American</td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Known for</th><td class="infobox-data">Contributions to <a href="/wiki/Macrohistory" title="Macrohistory">macrohistory</a> and historical dynamics (<a href="/wiki/Cliodynamics" title="Cliodynamics">cliodynamics</a>)</td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="infobox-full-data"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1257001546"></td></tr><tr><th colspan="2" class="infobox-header">Academic background</th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label"><a href="/wiki/Alma_mater" title="Alma mater">Alma mater</a></th><td class="infobox-data"><a href="/wiki/New_York_University" title="New York University">New York University</a>, <a href="/wiki/Duke_University" title="Duke University">Duke University</a></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label"><a href="/wiki/Thesis" title="Thesis">Thesis</a></th><td class="infobox-data"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://find.library.duke.edu/catalog/DUKE000682625"><i>The effect of host-plant dispersion on movement of Mexican bean beetles (Epilachna varivestis)</i></a> (1985)</td><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1257001546"></tr><tr><th colspan="2" class="infobox-header">Academic work</th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Discipline</th><td class="infobox-data">Cliodynamics (historical dynamics), mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, construction and analysis of historical databases</td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Institutions</th><td class="infobox-data"><a href="/wiki/University_of_Connecticut" title="University of Connecticut">University of Connecticut</a>, <a href="/wiki/Evolution_Institute" title="Evolution Institute">Evolution Institute</a>, <a href="/wiki/Complexity_Science_Hub_Vienna" title="Complexity Science Hub Vienna">Complexity Science Hub Vienna</a></td></tr><tr style="display:none"><td colspan="2"> </td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Website</th><td class="infobox-data"><span class="url"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.peterturchin.com/">www<wbr />.peterturchin<wbr />.com</a></span></td></tr></tbody></table> <p><b>Peter Valentinovich Turchin</b> (<span class="rt-commentedText nowrap"><span class="IPA nopopups noexcerpt" lang="en-fonipa"><a href="/wiki/Help:IPA/English" title="Help:IPA/English">/<span style="border-bottom:1px dotted"><span title="/ˈ/: primary stress follows">ˈ</span><span title="'t' in 'tie'">t</span><span title="/ɜːr/: 'ur' in 'fur'">ɜːr</span><span title="/tʃ/: 'ch' in 'China'">tʃ</span><span title="/ɪ/: 'i' in 'kit'">ɪ</span><span title="'n' in 'nigh'">n</span></span>/</a></span></span>; Russian: <span title="Russian-language text"><span lang="ru">Пётр Валенти́нович Турчи́н</span></span>, <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1177148991">.mw-parser-output .IPA-label-small{font-size:85%}.mw-parser-output .references .IPA-label-small,.mw-parser-output .infobox .IPA-label-small,.mw-parser-output .navbox .IPA-label-small{font-size:100%}</style><span class="IPA-label IPA-label-small">IPA:</span> <span class="IPA nowrap" lang="ru-Latn-fonipa"><a href="/wiki/Help:IPA/Russian" title="Help:IPA/Russian">[ˈpʲɵtr<span class="wrap"> </span>vəlʲɪnʲˈtʲinəvʲɪtɕ<span class="wrap"> </span>tʊrˈtɕin]</a></span>; born 22 May 1957)<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> is a Russian-American complexity scientist, specializing in an area of study he and his colleagues developed called <a href="/wiki/Cliodynamics" title="Cliodynamics">cliodynamics</a>—<a href="/wiki/Mathematical_modeling" class="mw-redirect" title="Mathematical modeling">mathematical modeling</a> and <a href="/wiki/Statistical_analysis" class="mw-redirect" title="Statistical analysis">statistical analysis</a> of the dynamics of historical societies.<sup id="cite_ref-Atlantic-202012_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Atlantic-202012-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Turchin is an emeritus professor at the <a href="/wiki/University_of_Connecticut" title="University of Connecticut">University of Connecticut</a> in the departments of ecology and evolutionary biology, anthropology, and mathematics. He is a project leader at the <a href="/wiki/Complexity_Science_Hub_Vienna" title="Complexity Science Hub Vienna">Complexity Science Hub Vienna</a> and a research associate at the School of Anthropology of the <a href="/wiki/University_of_Oxford" title="University of Oxford">University of Oxford</a>. He was editor-in-chief and remains a member of the editorial board at <i>Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution</i>. Turchin is a founding director of the <a href="/wiki/Seshat_(project)" title="Seshat (project)">Seshat: Global History Databank</a>. He was a director of the <a href="/wiki/Evolution_Institute" title="Evolution Institute">Evolution Institute</a>. In 2021, he was elected a fellow of the <a href="/wiki/American_Association_for_the_Advancement_of_Science" title="American Association for the Advancement of Science">American Association for the Advancement of Science</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Early_life_and_education">Early life and education</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peter_Turchin&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Early life and education"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Peter Turchin was born in 1957 in <a href="/wiki/Obninsk" title="Obninsk">Obninsk</a>, Russia, and in 1964 he moved with his family to <a href="/wiki/Moscow" title="Moscow">Moscow</a>. In 1975 he enrolled at <a href="/wiki/Moscow_State_University" title="Moscow State University">Moscow State University</a>'s Faculty of Biology and studied there until 1977, when his father, <a href="/wiki/Soviet_dissidents" title="Soviet dissidents">Soviet dissident</a> <a href="/wiki/Valentin_Turchin" title="Valentin Turchin">Valentin Turchin</a>, was exiled from the <a href="/wiki/Soviet_Union" title="Soviet Union">Soviet Union</a>. In 1980 Turchin received a <a href="/wiki/Bachelor_of_Arts" title="Bachelor of Arts">B.A.</a> (<i>cum laude</i>) in <a href="/wiki/Biology" title="Biology">biology</a> from <a href="/wiki/New_York_University" title="New York University">New York University</a>, and in 1985 a <a href="/wiki/Ph.D." class="mw-redirect" title="Ph.D.">Ph.D.</a> in <a href="/wiki/Zoology" title="Zoology">zoology</a> from <a href="/wiki/Duke_University" title="Duke University">Duke University</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-Atlantic-202012_2-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Atlantic-202012-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Career">Career</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peter_Turchin&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Career"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Clio.jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/01/Clio.jpg" decoding="async" width="178" height="247" class="mw-file-element" data-file-width="178" data-file-height="247" /></a><figcaption>Clio—detail from <i><a href="/wiki/The_Art_of_Painting" title="The Art of Painting">The Allegory of Painting</a></i> by <a href="/wiki/Johannes_Vermeer" title="Johannes Vermeer">Johannes Vermeer</a></figcaption></figure> <p>Throughout his career Turchin has made contributions to various fields, such as <a href="/wiki/Economic_history" title="Economic history">economic history</a> and <a href="/wiki/Historical_dynamics" title="Historical dynamics">historical dynamics</a>. He is one of the founders of <a href="/wiki/Cliodynamics" title="Cliodynamics">cliodynamics</a>, the scientific discipline at the intersection of <a href="/wiki/Macrosociology" title="Macrosociology">historical macrosociology</a>, <a href="/wiki/Cliometrics" title="Cliometrics">cliometrics</a>, and mathematical modeling of social processes. Turchin developed an original theory explaining how large historical empires evolve by the mechanism of <a href="/wiki/Multilevel_selection" class="mw-redirect" title="Multilevel selection">multilevel selection</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> His research on <a href="/wiki/Social_cycle_theory" title="Social cycle theory">secular cycles</a><sup id="cite_ref-Turchin2006_5-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Turchin2006-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> has contributed to our understanding of the <a href="/wiki/Societal_collapse" title="Societal collapse">collapse of complex societies</a> as has his re-interpretation of <a href="/wiki/Ibn_Khaldun" title="Ibn Khaldun">Ibn Khaldun</a>'s notion of <i><a href="/wiki/Asabiyya" class="mw-redirect" title="Asabiyya">asabiyya</a></i> as "collective solidarity".<sup id="cite_ref-Turchin2003_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Turchin2003-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-urss.ru_7-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-urss.ru-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>One of Turchin's most prominent fields of research is his study of the <a href="/wiki/Hypothesis" title="Hypothesis">hypothesis</a> that <a href="/wiki/Population" title="Population">population</a> pressure causes increased <a href="/wiki/Warfare" class="mw-redirect" title="Warfare">warfare</a>. Turchin, in collaboration with <a href="/wiki/Andrey_Korotayev" title="Andrey Korotayev">Korotayev</a>, has shown that negative results do not falsify the population-warfare hypothesis.<sup id="cite_ref-Turchin2006_5-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Turchin2006-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Population and warfare are dynamical variables. If their interaction causes sustained oscillations, then we do not in general expect to find strong correlation between the two variables measured at the same time (that is, unlagged). Turchin and Korotayev have explored mathematically what the dynamical patterns of interaction between population and warfare (focusing on internal warfare) might be in stateless and state societies. Next, they tested the model predictions in several empirical case studies: early modern England, Han and <a href="/wiki/Tang_dynasty" title="Tang dynasty">Tang</a> China, and the <a href="/wiki/Roman_Empire" title="Roman Empire">Roman Empire</a>. Their empirical results have lent support to the population-warfare theory: Turchin and Korotayev have found that there is a tendency for population numbers and internal warfare intensity to oscillate with the same period but shifted in phase (with warfare peaks following population peaks). Furthermore, they have demonstrated that the rates of change of the two variables behave precisely as predicted by the theory: population rate of change is negatively affected by warfare intensity, while warfare rate of change is positively affected by population density.<sup id="cite_ref-Turchin2006_5-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Turchin2006-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In 2010 Turchin published research using 40 combined social indicators to predict that there would be worldwide social unrest in the 2020s.<sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> He subsequently cited the success of <a href="/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign" title="Donald Trump 2016 presidential campaign">Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign</a> as evidence that "negative trends seem to be accelerating" and that there has been an "unprecedented collapse of social norms governing civilized discourse".<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2020, Turchin and <a href="/wiki/Jack_A._Goldstone" class="mw-redirect" title="Jack A. Goldstone">Jack Goldstone</a> predicted that political and civic unrest in the United States would continue regardless of the party in power until a leader took action to reduce inequality and improve the social indicators that are tracked in their research.<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Works">Works</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peter_Turchin&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Works"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Turchin has published over 200 scientific articles (including more than a dozen in <i><a href="/wiki/Nature_(journal)" title="Nature (journal)">Nature</a></i>, <i><a href="/wiki/Science_(journal)" title="Science (journal)">Science</a></i>, or <i><a href="/wiki/Proceedings_of_the_National_Academy_of_Sciences_of_the_United_States_of_America" title="Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America">PNAS</a></i>) and at least eight books. He is the founder of the journal, <i><a href="/wiki/Cliodynamics" title="Cliodynamics">Cliodynamics</a></i>, "...dedicated to 'the search for general principles explaining the functioning and dynamics of historical societies'",<sup id="cite_ref-Atlantic-202012_2-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Atlantic-202012-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and manages a blog, Cliodynamica.<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Books">Books</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peter_Turchin&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Books"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite id="CITEREFTurchin1998" class="citation book cs1">Turchin, Peter (1998). <i>Quantitative Analysis of Movement: Measuring and Modeling Population Redistribution in Animals and Plants</i>. <a href="/wiki/Sinauer_Associates" title="Sinauer Associates">Sinauer Associates</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0878938476" title="Special:BookSources/978-0878938476"><bdi>978-0878938476</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Quantitative+Analysis+of+Movement%3A+Measuring+and+Modeling+Population+Redistribution+in+Animals+and+Plants&rft.pub=Sinauer+Associates&rft.date=1998&rft.isbn=978-0878938476&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=Peter&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchin2003" class="citation book cs1">Turchin, Peter (2003). <i>Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis</i>. <a href="/wiki/Princeton_University_Press" title="Princeton University Press">Princeton University Press</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0691090214" title="Special:BookSources/978-0691090214"><bdi>978-0691090214</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Complex+Population+Dynamics%3A+A+Theoretical%2FEmpirical+Synthesis&rft.pub=Princeton+University+Press&rft.date=2003&rft.isbn=978-0691090214&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=Peter&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchin2003" class="citation book cs1">Turchin, Peter (2003). <i>Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall</i>. <a href="/wiki/Princeton_University_Press" title="Princeton University Press">Princeton University Press</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0691116693" title="Special:BookSources/978-0691116693"><bdi>978-0691116693</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Historical+Dynamics%3A+Why+States+Rise+and+Fall&rft.pub=Princeton+University+Press&rft.date=2003&rft.isbn=978-0691116693&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=Peter&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchin2007" class="citation book cs1">Turchin, Peter (2007). <i>War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires</i>. <a href="/wiki/Plume_(publisher)" title="Plume (publisher)">Plume</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0452288195" title="Special:BookSources/978-0452288195"><bdi>978-0452288195</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=War+and+Peace+and+War%3A+The+Rise+and+Fall+of+Empires&rft.pub=Plume&rft.date=2007&rft.isbn=978-0452288195&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=Peter&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchinNefedov2009" class="citation book cs1">Turchin, Peter; Nefedov, Sergey A. (2009). <i>Secular Cycles</i>. <a href="/wiki/Princeton_University_Press" title="Princeton University Press">Princeton University Press</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0691136967" title="Special:BookSources/978-0691136967"><bdi>978-0691136967</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Secular+Cycles&rft.pub=Princeton+University+Press&rft.date=2009&rft.isbn=978-0691136967&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=Peter&rft.au=Nefedov%2C+Sergey+A.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchin2016" class="citation cs2">Turchin, P. (2016), <i>Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth</i>, Beresta Books, <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0996139519" title="Special:BookSources/978-0996139519"><bdi>978-0996139519</bdi></a></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Ultrasociety%3A+How+10%2C000+Years+of+War+Made+Humans+the+Greatest+Cooperators+on+Earth&rft.pub=Beresta+Books&rft.date=2016&rft.isbn=978-0996139519&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=P.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span>.</li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchin2016" class="citation book cs1">Turchin, Peter (2016). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.org/details/ages-of-discord-a-structural-d-peter-turchin"><i>Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History</i></a>. Beresta Books. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0996139540" title="Special:BookSources/978-0996139540"><bdi>978-0996139540</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Ages+of+Discord%3A+A+Structural-Demographic+Analysis+of+American+History&rft.pub=Beresta+Books&rft.date=2016&rft.isbn=978-0996139540&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=Peter&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Farchive.org%2Fdetails%2Fages-of-discord-a-structural-d-peter-turchin&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchinHoyer2020" class="citation book cs1">Turchin, Peter; Hoyer, Daniel (2020). <i>Figuring Out the Past; The 3,495 Vital Statistics that Explain World History</i>. <a href="/wiki/Economist_Books" class="mw-redirect" title="Economist Books">Economist Books</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/9781541762688" title="Special:BookSources/9781541762688"><bdi>9781541762688</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Figuring+Out+the+Past%3B+The+3%2C495+Vital+Statistics+that+Explain+World+History&rft.pub=Economist+Books&rft.date=2020&rft.isbn=9781541762688&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=Peter&rft.au=Hoyer%2C+Daniel&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchin2023" class="citation book cs1">Turchin, Peter (2023). <i>End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration</i>. <a href="/wiki/Allen_Lane" title="Allen Lane">Allen Lane</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0241553480" title="Special:BookSources/978-0241553480"><bdi>978-0241553480</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=End+Times%3A+Elites%2C+Counter-Elites+and+the+Path+of+Political+Disintegration&rft.pub=Allen+Lane&rft.date=2023&rft.isbn=978-0241553480&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=Peter&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Selected_journal_articles">Selected journal articles</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peter_Turchin&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: Selected journal articles"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchinTaylorReeve1999" class="citation cs2">Turchin, P.; Taylor, A. D. & Reeve, J. D. (1999), "Dynamical role of predators in population cycles of a forest insect: an experimental test", <i>Science</i>, <b>285</b> (5430): 1068–1071, <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.285.5430.1068">10.1126/science.285.5430.1068</a>, <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10446053">10446053</a></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Science&rft.atitle=Dynamical+role+of+predators+in+population+cycles+of+a+forest+insect%3A+an+experimental+test&rft.volume=285&rft.issue=5430&rft.pages=1068-1071&rft.date=1999&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1126%2Fscience.285.5430.1068&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F10446053&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=P.&rft.au=Taylor%2C+A.+D.&rft.au=Reeve%2C+J.+D.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchinOksanenEkerholmOksanen2000" class="citation cs2">Turchin, P.; Oksanen, L.; Ekerholm, P.; Oksanen, T. & Henttonen, H. (2000), "Are lemmings prey or predators?", <i>Nature</i>, <b>405</b> (6786): 562–565, <a href="/wiki/Bibcode_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Bibcode (identifier)">Bibcode</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2000Natur.405..562T">2000Natur.405..562T</a>, <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1038%2F35014595">10.1038/35014595</a>, <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10850713">10850713</a>, <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:1945851">1945851</a></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Nature&rft.atitle=Are+lemmings+prey+or+predators%3F&rft.volume=405&rft.issue=6786&rft.pages=562-565&rft.date=2000&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1038%2F35014595&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A1945851%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F10850713&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2000Natur.405..562T&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=P.&rft.au=Oksanen%2C+L.&rft.au=Ekerholm%2C+P.&rft.au=Oksanen%2C+T.&rft.au=Henttonen%2C+H.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBurtsevTurchin2006" class="citation cs2">Burtsev, M.; Turchin, P. (2006), "Evolution of cooperative strategies from first principles", <i>Nature</i>, <b>440</b> (7087): 1041–1044, <a href="/wiki/Bibcode_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Bibcode (identifier)">Bibcode</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006Natur.440.1041B">2006Natur.440.1041B</a>, <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature04470">10.1038/nature04470</a>, <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16625195">16625195</a>, <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:4340926">4340926</a></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Nature&rft.atitle=Evolution+of+cooperative+strategies+from+first+principles&rft.volume=440&rft.issue=7087&rft.pages=1041-1044&rft.date=2006&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1038%2Fnature04470&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A4340926%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F16625195&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2006Natur.440.1041B&rft.aulast=Burtsev&rft.aufirst=M.&rft.au=Turchin%2C+P.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li>Turchin P. (2006). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.socionauki.ru/journal/files/seh/2006_2/population_dynamics_and_internal_warfare.pdf">Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration</a>. <i>Social Evolution & History</i> 5(2): 112–147 (with <a href="/wiki/Andrey_Korotayev" title="Andrey Korotayev">Andrey Korotayev</a>).</li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchin2009" class="citation cs2">Turchin, P. (2009), <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110721193004/http://cliodynamics.info/PDF/RevSEC.pdf">"Long-term population cycles in human societies"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>, in Ostfeld, R. S.; Schlesinger, W. H. (eds.), <i>The Year in Ecology and Conservation Biology, 2009</i>, pp. 1–17, archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://cliodynamics.info/PDF/RevSEC.pdf">the original</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span> on 2011-07-21<span class="reference-accessdate">, retrieved <span class="nowrap">2009-08-26</span></span></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.atitle=Long-term+population+cycles+in+human+societies&rft.btitle=The+Year+in+Ecology+and+Conservation+Biology%2C+2009&rft.pages=1-17&rft.date=2009&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=P.&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fcliodynamics.info%2FPDF%2FRevSEC.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchinScheidel2009" class="citation cs2">Turchin, P.; Scheidel, W. (2009), "Coin Hoards Speak of Population Declines in Ancient Rome", <i>PNAS</i>, <b>106</b> (4): 17276–17279, <a href="/wiki/Bibcode_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Bibcode (identifier)">Bibcode</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009PNAS..10617276T">2009PNAS..10617276T</a>, <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1073%2Fpnas.0904576106">10.1073/pnas.0904576106</a></span>, <a href="/wiki/PMC_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMC (identifier)">PMC</a> <span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2762679">2762679</a></span>, <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19805043">19805043</a></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=PNAS&rft.atitle=Coin+Hoards+Speak+of+Population+Declines+in+Ancient+Rome&rft.volume=106&rft.issue=4&rft.pages=17276-17279&rft.date=2009&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC2762679%23id-name%3DPMC&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F19805043&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1073%2Fpnas.0904576106&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2009PNAS..10617276T&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=P.&rft.au=Scheidel%2C+W.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchinCurrieTurnerGavrilets2013" class="citation journal cs1">Turchin, P.; Currie, T.E.; Turner, E.A.; Gavrilets, S. (2013). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3799307">"War, space, and the evolution of Old World complex societies"</a>. <i>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</i>. <b>110</b> (41): 16384–9. <a href="/wiki/Bibcode_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Bibcode (identifier)">Bibcode</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013PNAS..11016384T">2013PNAS..11016384T</a>. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1073%2Fpnas.1308825110">10.1073/pnas.1308825110</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/PMC_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMC (identifier)">PMC</a> <span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3799307">3799307</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24062433">24062433</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Proc+Natl+Acad+Sci+U+S+A&rft.atitle=War%2C+space%2C+and+the+evolution+of+Old+World+complex+societies&rft.volume=110&rft.issue=41&rft.pages=16384-9&rft.date=2013&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC3799307%23id-name%3DPMC&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F24062433&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1073%2Fpnas.1308825110&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2013PNAS..11016384T&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=P.&rft.au=Currie%2C+T.E.&rft.au=Turner%2C+E.A.&rft.au=Gavrilets%2C+S.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC3799307&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFWhitehouseFrançoisSavageCurrie2019" class="citation journal cs1">Whitehouse, H.; François, P.; Savage, P.; Currie, T.; Feeney, K.; Cioni, E.; Purcell, R.; Ross, R.; Larson, J.; Baines, J.; Ter Haar, B.; Covey, A.; Turchin, P. (2019). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1043-4">"Complex societies precede moralizing gods throughout world history"</a>. <i>Nature</i>. <b>568</b> (7751): 226–229. <a href="/wiki/Bibcode_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Bibcode (identifier)">Bibcode</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2019Natur.568..226W">2019Natur.568..226W</a>. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1038%2Fs41586-019-1043-4">10.1038/s41586-019-1043-4</a>. <a href="/wiki/Hdl_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Hdl (identifier)">hdl</a>:<span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://hdl.handle.net/10871%2F36936">10871/36936</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30894750">30894750</a>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:84186554">84186554</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Nature&rft.atitle=Complex+societies+precede+moralizing+gods+throughout+world+history&rft.volume=568&rft.issue=7751&rft.pages=226-229&rft.date=2019&rft_id=info%3Ahdl%2F10871%2F36936&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A84186554%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2019Natur.568..226W&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F30894750&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1038%2Fs41586-019-1043-4&rft.aulast=Whitehouse&rft.aufirst=H.&rft.au=Fran%C3%A7ois%2C+P.&rft.au=Savage%2C+P.&rft.au=Currie%2C+T.&rft.au=Feeney%2C+K.&rft.au=Cioni%2C+E.&rft.au=Purcell%2C+R.&rft.au=Ross%2C+R.&rft.au=Larson%2C+J.&rft.au=Baines%2C+J.&rft.au=Ter+Haar%2C+B.&rft.au=Covey%2C+A.&rft.au=Turchin%2C+P.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41586-019-1043-4&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span><span class="" style="font-size:0.95em; font-weight:bold; color: #555;"> (Retracted, see <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1038%2Fs41586-021-03656-3">10.1038/s41586-021-03656-3</a>, <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34234342">34234342</a>,  <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://retractionwatch.com/2021/07/07/critique-topples-nature-paper-on-belief-in-gods/"><i>Retraction Watch</i></a>)</span> (<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03656-3">Article retracted on July 7, 2021</a>)</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2153599X.2022.2065345">Explaining the rise of moralizing religions: A test of competing hypotheses using the Seshat Databank. <i>Religion, Brain & Behavior</i>, 2023, 13(2), 167-194.</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peter_Turchin&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Elite_overproduction" title="Elite overproduction">Elite overproduction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Structural-demographic_theory" title="Structural-demographic theory">Structural-demographic theory</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Seshat_(project)" title="Seshat (project)">Seshat (project)</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peter_Turchin&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap mw-references-columns"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFLloyd2023" class="citation web cs1">Lloyd, Will (2023-06-15). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2023/06/american-revolution-inevitable-interview-peter-turchin">"Is Another American Revolution Inevitable?"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/New_Statesman" title="New Statesman">New Statesman</a></i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2023-07-19</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=New+Statesman&rft.atitle=Is+Another+American+Revolution+Inevitable%3F&rft.date=2023-06-15&rft.aulast=Lloyd&rft.aufirst=Will&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newstatesman.com%2Fideas%2F2023%2F06%2Famerican-revolution-inevitable-interview-peter-turchin&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Atlantic-202012-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-Atlantic-202012_2-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Atlantic-202012_2-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Atlantic-202012_2-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFWood2020" class="citation journal cs1">Wood, Graeme (December 2020). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/">"The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse"</a>. <i>The Atlantic</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">12 November</span> 2020</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+Atlantic&rft.atitle=The+Next+Decade+Could+Be+Even+Worse&rft.date=2020-12&rft.aulast=Wood&rft.aufirst=Graeme&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fmagazine%2Farchive%2F2020%2F12%2Fcan-history-predict-future%2F616993%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-3">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://peterturchin.com/about/">About</a>, peterturchin.com (per 20. January 2024)</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-4">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchin2009" class="citation journal cs1">Turchin, P (2009). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://peterturchin.com/PDF/Turchin_JGH_2009.pdf">"A Theory for Formation of Large Empires"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <i>Journal of Global History</i>. <b>4</b> (2): 191–207. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1017%2Fs174002280900312x">10.1017/s174002280900312x</a>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:73597670">73597670</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Journal+of+Global+History&rft.atitle=A+Theory+for+Formation+of+Large+Empires&rft.volume=4&rft.issue=2&rft.pages=191-207&rft.date=2009&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1017%2Fs174002280900312x&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A73597670%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=P&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fpeterturchin.com%2FPDF%2FTurchin_JGH_2009.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Turchin2006-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-Turchin2006_5-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Turchin2006_5-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Turchin2006_5-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text">Turchin P. and <a href="/wiki/Andrey_Korotayev" title="Andrey Korotayev">Korotayev A.</a> 2006. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.socionauki.ru/journal/files/seh/2006_2/population_dynamics_and_internal_warfare.pdf">Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/Social_Evolution_%26_History" title="Social Evolution & History">Social Evolution & History</a></i> 5(2): 112–147; Turchin P. and Nefedov S. 2009. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8904.html">Secular Cycles</a>. <a href="/wiki/Princeton_University_Press" title="Princeton University Press">Princeton University Press</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Turchin2003-6"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Turchin2003_6-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchin2003" class="citation cs2">Turchin, P. (2003), <i>Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall</i>, Princeton University Press</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Historical+Dynamics%3A+Why+States+Rise+and+Fall&rft.pub=Princeton+University+Press&rft.date=2003&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=P.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-urss.ru-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-urss.ru_7-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Korotayev A.V., Khaltourina D.A. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.academia.edu/27503953/Introduction_to_Social_Macrodynamics_Secular_Cycles_and_Millennial_Trends_in_Africa"><i>Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa</i>.</a> Moscow: URSS, 2006. <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/5-484-00560-4" title="Special:BookSources/5-484-00560-4">5-484-00560-4</a>.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-8">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchin2010" class="citation journal cs1">Turchin, Peter (4 February 2010). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1038%2F463608a">"Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade"</a>. <i>Nature</i>. <b>463</b> (607): 608. <a href="/wiki/Bibcode_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Bibcode (identifier)">Bibcode</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010Natur.463..608T">2010Natur.463..608T</a>. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1038%2F463608a">10.1038/463608a</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20130632">20130632</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Nature&rft.atitle=Political+instability+may+be+a+contributor+in+the+coming+decade&rft.volume=463&rft.issue=607&rft.pages=608&rft.date=2010-02-04&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F20130632&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1038%2F463608a&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2010Natur.463..608T&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=Peter&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1038%252F463608a&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-9"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-9">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.livescience.com/22109-cycles-violence-2020.html">"Will the US Really Experience a Violent Upheaval in 2020?"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/Live_Science" title="Live Science">Live Science</a></i>. 3 August 2012.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Live+Science&rft.atitle=Will+the+US+Really+Experience+a+Violent+Upheaval+in+2020%3F&rft.date=2012-08-03&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.livescience.com%2F22109-cycles-violence-2020.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-10"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-10">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://today.uconn.edu/2016/12/using-social-science-to-predict-the-future/">"Social Instability Lies Ahead, Researcher Says"</a>. <i>UConn Today</i>. 2016-12-27<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2019-07-17</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=UConn+Today&rft.atitle=Social+Instability+Lies+Ahead%2C+Researcher+Says&rft.date=2016-12-27&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Ftoday.uconn.edu%2F2016%2F12%2Fusing-social-science-to-predict-the-future%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-11"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-11">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurchinGoldstone2020" class="citation journal cs1">Turchin, Peter; Goldstone, Jack (10 September 2020). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.noemamag.com/welcome-to-the-turbulent-twenties/">"Welcome To The 'Turbulent Twenties'<span class="cs1-kern-right"></span>"</a>. <i>NOEMA</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">19 October</span> 2020</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=NOEMA&rft.atitle=Welcome+To+The+%27Turbulent+Twenties%27&rft.date=2020-09-10&rft.aulast=Turchin&rft.aufirst=Peter&rft.au=Goldstone%2C+Jack&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.noemamag.com%2Fwelcome-to-the-turbulent-twenties%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-12"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-12">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/">"Cliodynamica: A Blog about the Evolution of Civilizations"</a>. <i>Cliodynamica</i>. 24 October 2016<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">18 January</span> 2021</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Cliodynamica&rft.atitle=Cliodynamica%3A+A+Blog+about+the+Evolution+of+Civilizations&rft.date=2016-10-24&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fpeterturchin.com%2Fcliodynamica%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> </ol></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Further_reading">Further reading</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peter_Turchin&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Further reading"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFAldhous2020" class="citation news cs1">Aldhous, Peter (24 October 2020). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/political-violence-inequality-us-election">"This Scary Statistic Predicts Growing US Political Violence — Whatever Happens On Election Day"</a>. <i>BuzzFeed</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">22 November</span> 2020</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=BuzzFeed&rft.atitle=This+Scary+Statistic+Predicts+Growing+US+Political+Violence+%E2%80%94+Whatever+Happens+On+Election+Day&rft.date=2020-10-24&rft.aulast=Aldhous&rft.aufirst=Peter&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.buzzfeednews.com%2Farticle%2Fpeteraldhous%2Fpolitical-violence-inequality-us-election&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span> Article on work by Goldstone and Turchin.</li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFGoldstoneTurchin2020" class="citation journal cs1">Goldstone, Jack A.; Turchin, Peter (10 September 2020). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.noemamag.com/welcome-to-the-turbulent-twenties/">"Welcome To The 'Turbulent Twenties'<span class="cs1-kern-right"></span>"</a>. <i>Noema Magazine</i>. Berggruen Institute<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">22 November</span> 2020</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Noema+Magazine&rft.atitle=Welcome+To+The+%27Turbulent+Twenties%27&rft.date=2020-09-10&rft.aulast=Goldstone&rft.aufirst=Jack+A.&rft.au=Turchin%2C+Peter&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.noemamag.com%2Fwelcome-to-the-turbulent-twenties%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFGoldstone2016" class="citation book cs1">Goldstone, Jack A. (2016) [1991]. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://books.google.com/books?id=mOu_DQAAQBAJ"><i>Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World: Population Change and State Breakdown in England, France, Turkey, and China,1600-1850</i></a> (25th Anniversary ed.). Routledge. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/9781315408606" title="Special:BookSources/9781315408606"><bdi>9781315408606</bdi></a><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">22 November</span> 2020</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Revolution+and+Rebellion+in+the+Early+Modern+World%3A+Population+Change+and+State+Breakdown+in+England%2C+France%2C+Turkey%2C+and+China%2C1600-1850&rft.edition=25th+Anniversary&rft.pub=Routledge&rft.date=2016&rft.isbn=9781315408606&rft.aulast=Goldstone&rft.aufirst=Jack+A.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fbooks.google.com%2Fbooks%3Fid%3DmOu_DQAAQBAJ&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span> Turchin adopted and expanded Goldstone's model to apply to modern industrial states. They later became collaborators.</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Evan_Osnos" title="Evan Osnos">Osnos, Evan</a>, "Ruling-Class Rules: How to thrive in the power elite – while declaring it your enemy", <i><a href="/wiki/The_New_Yorker" title="The New Yorker">The New Yorker</a></i>, 29 January 2024, pp. 18–23. "In the nineteen-twenties... American elites, some of whom feared a <a href="/wiki/Bolshevik_revolution" class="mw-redirect" title="Bolshevik revolution">Bolshevik revolution</a>, consented to reform... Under <a href="/wiki/Franklin_D._Roosevelt" title="Franklin D. Roosevelt">Franklin D. Roosevelt</a>... the U.S. raised taxes, took steps to protect <a href="/wiki/Labor_union" class="mw-redirect" title="Labor union">unions</a>, and established a <a href="/wiki/Minimum_wage" title="Minimum wage">minimum wage</a>. The costs, Turchin writes, 'were borne by the American <a href="/wiki/Ruling_class" title="Ruling class">ruling class</a>.'... Between the nineteen-thirties and the nineteen-seventies, a period that scholars call the <a href="/wiki/Great_Compression" title="Great Compression">Great Compression</a>, economic equality narrowed, except among Black Americans... But by the nineteen-eighties the Great Compression was over. As the rich grew richer than ever, they sought to turn their money into <a href="/wiki/Political_power" class="mw-redirect" title="Political power">political power</a>; spending on politics soared." (p. 22.) "[N]o democracy can function well if people are unwilling to lose power – if a generation of leaders... becomes so entrenched that it ages into <a href="/wiki/Gerontocracy" title="Gerontocracy">gerontocracy</a>; if one of two major parties denies the arithmetic of elections; if a cohort of the ruling class loses status that it once enjoyed and sets out to salvage it." (p. 23.)</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Peter_Turchin&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: External links"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1235681985">.mw-parser-output .side-box{margin:4px 0;box-sizing:border-box;border:1px solid #aaa;font-size:88%;line-height:1.25em;background-color:var(--background-color-interactive-subtle,#f8f9fa);display:flow-root}.mw-parser-output .side-box-abovebelow,.mw-parser-output .side-box-text{padding:0.25em 0.9em}.mw-parser-output .side-box-image{padding:2px 0 2px 0.9em;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .side-box-imageright{padding:2px 0.9em 2px 0;text-align:center}@media(min-width:500px){.mw-parser-output .side-box-flex{display:flex;align-items:center}.mw-parser-output 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li{margin-bottom:0}</style> <div class="side-box-flex"> <div class="side-box-image"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fa/Wikiquote-logo.svg/34px-Wikiquote-logo.svg.png" decoding="async" width="34" height="40" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fa/Wikiquote-logo.svg/51px-Wikiquote-logo.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fa/Wikiquote-logo.svg/68px-Wikiquote-logo.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="300" data-file-height="355" /></span></span></div> <div class="side-box-text plainlist">Wikiquote has quotations related to <i><b><a href="https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Special:Search/Peter_Turchin" class="extiw" title="q:Special:Search/Peter Turchin">Peter Turchin</a></b></i>.</div></div> </div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1235681985"><div class="side-box metadata side-box-right"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1126788409"> <div class="side-box-abovebelow"> <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:The_Wikipedia_Library" title="Wikipedia:The Wikipedia Library">Library resources</a> about <br /> <b>Peter Turchin</b> <hr /></div> <div class="side-box-flex"> <div class="side-box-text plainlist"><ul><li><a class="external text" href="https://ftl.toolforge.org/cgi-bin/ftl?st=viaf&su=27281560">Resources in your library</a></li> <li><a class="external text" href="https://ftl.toolforge.org/cgi-bin/ftl?st=viaf&su=27281560&library=0CHOOSE0">Resources in other libraries</a></li> </ul></div></div> <div class="side-box-abovebelow"><b>By Peter Turchin</b> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1126788409"><div class="plainlist"> <ul><li><a class="external text" href="https://ftl.toolforge.org/cgi-bin/ftl?at=viaf&au=27281560">Resources in your library</a></li> <li><a class="external text" href="https://ftl.toolforge.org/cgi-bin/ftl?at=viaf&au=27281560&library=0CHOOSE0">Resources in other libraries</a></li></ul> </div></div> </div> <ul><li><i><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/">Cliodynamica</a></i> A Blog about the Evolution of Civilizations @PeterTurchin.com</li> <li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBob_Holmes2012" class="citation web cs1">Bob Holmes (2012-08-23). <span class="id-lock-subscription" title="Paid subscription required"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528781.800-calculated-violence-numbers-that-predict-revolutions.html">"Calculated violence: Numbers that predict revolutions"</a></span>. <i>New Scientist</i>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=New+Scientist&rft.atitle=Calculated+violence%3A+Numbers+that+predict+revolutions&rft.date=2012-08-23&rft.au=Bob+Holmes&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newscientist.com%2Farticle%2Fmg21528781.800-calculated-violence-numbers-that-predict-revolutions.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APeter+Turchin" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li>Maini, Alessandro. "On Historical Dynamics by P. Turchin". <i>Biophysical Economics and Sustainability</i> 5, No. 1 (4 February 2020): 3. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s41247-019-0063-x">DOI: 10.1007/s41247-019-0063-x</a>.</li></ul> <div class="navbox-styles"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1129693374">.mw-parser-output .hlist dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul{margin:0;padding:0}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt,.mw-parser-output .hlist li{margin:0;display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul ul{display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist 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Wikidata"><img alt="Edit this at Wikidata" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/8/8a/OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg/10px-OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg.png" decoding="async" width="10" height="10" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/8/8a/OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg/15px-OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/8/8a/OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg/20px-OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="20" data-file-height="20" /></a></span></div></th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">International</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"><ul><li><span class="uid"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://isni.org/isni/0000000109616547">ISNI</a></span></li><li><span class="uid"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://viaf.org/viaf/27281560">VIAF</a></span></li><li><span class="uid"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJbGYywCRCRKvB6MDHtVG3">WorldCat</a></span></li></ul></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">National</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"><ul><li><span class="uid"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://d-nb.info/gnd/139507957">Germany</a></span></li><li><span class="uid"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://id.loc.gov/authorities/n98000953">United States</a></span></li><li><span class="uid"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb14414394k">France</a></span></li><li><span class="uid"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://data.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb14414394k">BnF data</a></span></li><li><span class="uid"><a 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