Document Zbl 1430.92085

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Theor. Biol.</a> <a href="/?q=in%3A446497" title="Articles in this Issue">489, Article ID 110160, 9 p. (2020)</a>. </div> <div class="abstract">Summary: Among newly notified tuberculosis cases in Japan, both the number and the proportion of foreign-born cases have steadily increased over time. As Japan prepares to introduce pre-entry tuberculosis screening for foreign-born persons entering Japan, various epidemiological evidence is needed to evaluate its effectiveness, including the prevalence of tuberculosis among current foreign residents in Japan, by country of birth. Yet as of today, even the underlying population dynamics has yet to be quantified. The present study therefore aimed to firstly reconstruct the demographic prevalence of foreign residents by the length of stay in Japan and by country of birth, and secondly, to estimate the prevalence of infection from notification data among foreign residents in Japan. We employed the McKendrick partial differential equation model to reconstruct the dynamics among six Asian countries which account for 80% of foreign-born tuberculosis patients notified in Japan i.e. China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Nepal, Indonesia, and Myanmar. Compared with China and the Philippines, the recent remarkable increase in the number of residents who had arrived within 5 years from Myanmar and Vietnam was identified. Assuming that the risk of primary tuberculosis given infection is 5%, the estimated prevalence of infection ranged from 3.5% to 21.3%, and all the estimates were more than three times greater than the crude estimate that ignored the time since immigration. The proposed method may be used to further estimate the prevalence by age, sex and residential status, which could potentially provide critical evidence towards establishing policies to control tuberculosis among foreign-born persons in Japan, and also possibly among migrants globally.</div> <div class="clear"></div> <br> <div class="citations"><div class="clear"><a href="/?q=rf%3A7167828">Cited in <strong>1</strong> Document</a></div></div> <div class="classification"> <h3>MSC:</h3> <table><tr> <td> <a class="mono" href="/classification/?q=cc%3A92D30" title="MSC2020">92D30</a> </td> <td class="space"> Epidemiology </td> </tr><tr> <td> <a class="mono" href="/classification/?q=cc%3A91D20" title="MSC2020">91D20</a> </td> <td class="space"> Mathematical geography and demography </td> </tr><tr> <td> <a class="mono" href="/classification/?q=cc%3A62P10" title="MSC2020">62P10</a> </td> <td class="space"> Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis </td> </tr></table> </div><div class="keywords"> <h3>Keywords:</h3><a href="/?q=ut%3A%5Ctextit%7BMycobacterium+tuberculosis%7D"><span class="zbmathjax-textit">Mycobacterium tuberculosis</span></a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Aforeigner">foreigner</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Aepidemiology">epidemiology</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Astatistical+model">statistical model</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Amigration">migration</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Astatistical+estimation">statistical estimation</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Aepidemic">epidemic</a></div>  <div class="modal fade" id="metadataModal" tabindex="-1" role="dialog" aria-labelledby="myModalLabel"> <div class="modal-dialog" role="document"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-label="Close"><span aria-hidden="true">×</span></button> <h4 class="modal-title" id="myModalLabel">Cite</h4> </div> <div class="modal-body"> <div class="form-group"> <label for="select-output" class="control-label">Format</label> <select id="select-output" class="form-control" aria-label="Select Metadata format"></select> </div> <div class="form-group"> <label for="metadataText" class="control-label">Result</label> <textarea class="form-control" id="metadataText" rows="10" style="min-width: 100%;max-width: 100%"></textarea> </div> <div id="metadata-alert" class="alert alert-danger" role="alert" style="display: none;">  </div> </div> <div class="modal-footer"> <button type="button" class="btn btn-primary" onclick="copyMetadata()">Copy to clipboard</button> <button type="button" class="btn btn-default" data-dismiss="modal">Close</button> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="functions clearfix"> <div class="function">  <a type="button" class="btn btn-default btn-xs pdf" data-toggle="modal" data-target="#metadataModal" data-itemtype="Zbl" data-itemname="Zbl 1430.92085" data-ciurl="/ci/07167828" data-biburl="/bibtex/07167828.bib" data-amsurl="/amsrefs/07167828.bib" data-xmlurl="/xml/07167828.xml" > Cite </a> <a class="btn btn-default btn-xs pdf" data-container="body" type="button" href="/pdf/07167828.pdf" title="Zbl 1430.92085 as PDF">Review PDF</a> </div> <div class="fulltexts"> <span class="fulltext">Full Text:</span> <a class="btn btn-default btn-xs" type="button" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110160" aria-label="DOI for “Reconstructing the population dynamics of foreign residents in Japan to estimate the prevalence of infection with \textit{Mycobacterium tuberculosis}”" title="10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110160">DOI</a> </div> <div class="sfx" style="float: right;"> </div> </div> <div class="references"> <h3>References:</h3> <table><tr> <td>[1]</td> <td class="space">Aldridge, R. 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