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vjs-big-play-centered" webkit-playsinline="true" playsinline="true"></video><div id="a1"></div></div><div id="MultiAttachPh" style="display: none"></div><div id="PicUrlPh" style="display: none"></div><div id="SubtitlePh" style="display: none"></div><div class="u-mainText" id="7aa1d24b9"><p>　　<p>2023年军队文职人员公开招考工作全面展开******<p>　　本报北京1月11日电为广泛延揽社会优秀人才为军队建设服务，中央军委政治工作部近日部署展开2023年军队文职人员公开招考工作。</p><p>　　考生可于2023年1月13日8:00至17日18:00期间，登录军队人才网进行网上报名。全军组织统一笔试将于2023年2月19日在全国各直辖市、省会城市、自治区首府和部分较大的城市同时举行。根据计划安排，6月底前完成面试体检、政治考核、公示审批等工作。</p><p>　　这次公开招考，贯彻落实新修订的《中国人民解放军文职人员条例》及《军队文职人员公开招考暂行规定》等配套政策，聚焦如期实现建军一百年奋斗目标、加快把人民军队建成世界一流军队，加大急需紧缺专业人才补充力度，将免笔试直接面试招考岗位范围由博士研究生拓展到“双一流”建设高校或者建设学科理学、工学、医学硕士研究生，进一步提升引才质量效益；严把人才选拔标准条件，强化全过程监督，确保招考工作公平公正、规范有序。</p><p>　　（2023年军队文职人员公开招考公告见第三版）</p></p><p><img src="/uploads/23082642ed5a3c63b70f24a9c7cd297b.png" alt="1分快3注册网" width="800px" height="500px" /></p><p>专访瑞银全球经济和策略研究主管：全球利率即将见顶，通缩风险远超预期******<p>　　步入2023年，随着疫情形势的变化，全球经济似乎出现转折点。与此同时，美联储即将开启2023年的首次加息。</p><p>　　瑞银全球经济和策略研究主管及首席经济学家卡普坦(Arend Kapteyn)于近期接受第一财经记者的独家专访时表示，当前，发达国家加息进程已完成80%，还有一两个季度就会结束加息周期，因加息效果具滞后性，经济疲弱尚未完全体现。大类资产方面，他对全球楼市、美股、科技板块等资产前景也作出了预测。</p><p>　　在加入瑞银之前，卡普坦曾在德意志银行管理欧洲、中东及非洲地区(EMEA)宏观研究和外汇策略，也曾担任国际货币基金组织(IMF)资深经济学家，他于荷兰中央银行开启其职业生涯，在货币和经济政策部门担任经济学家。</p><p>　　<strong>2023年全球经济三大预测</strong><table><tr></tr></table></p><p>　　<strong>第一财经</strong>：能否说说你对2023年全球经济的三大预测？</p><p>　　<strong>卡普坦：</strong>首先，<strong>全球将进入一个比市场预期更为通缩的环境，目前的共识是，通胀将顽固停留在央行目标之上约一个百分点，但我们认为，今年年末时通胀就可达到甚至低于央行目标</strong>；第二个预测是全球将陷入衰退，我们认为市场尚未真正为衰退定价；第三个预测有关央行如何回应上述两点，我们预期，全球央行尤其是美联储将采取有力行动，加息幅度将比市场定价的高出几个百分点。</p><p>　　<strong>第一财经：</strong>2023年全球经济将呈现何种形态？</p><p>　　<strong>卡普坦：</strong>经济重启利好逐步消退，欧洲能源前景仍不明朗，就业市场供应短缺，货币政策持续紧缩，以及实际工资下降都在拖累经济增长，<strong>在瑞银追踪的32个经济体当中，预计有13个经济体今年底前将录得至少两个季度的经济萎缩，接近“全球衰退”的定义。</strong></p><p>　　央行紧缩政策施压令经济停滞不前，<strong>且紧缩的大部分影响尚未完全显现，因此我们预计，2023年全球GDP增速为2.2%，剔除疫情和全球金融危机时期，该增速是自1993年以来的最慢，不过我们并不预期将有重大金融危机的发生。</strong></p><p>　　<strong>第一财经</strong>：瑞银预期美国经济今明两年将接近零增长，在一众华尔街大行中较为看空。为什么？</p><p>　　<strong>卡普坦</strong>：我们预期美国经济或于二季度进入衰退。美国是全球少数几个未有采取任何实际措施，帮助家庭应对通胀冲击的国家之一，与其他国家消费者相比，美国民众要苦恼得多，储蓄率已不及疫情前的1/2水平，超额储蓄存量正以每年1万亿的速度减少，信用卡借贷也在增长，看起来不可持续。我们还看到资本支出下滑甚至收缩，住宅投资锐减，减速比以往任何一个加息周期都要快。叠加仍在进行的加息举措，我们可能会在二季度开始见到就业人口负增长。</p><p>　　值得留意的是加息效果的滞后性及其重大影响，据以往经验，<strong>美联储每加息100个基点，经济产出就会减少约100个基点，几乎一比一对应关系。</strong>美联储试图将利率升至5%，因此还有很多经济疲弱尚未在数据中反应。</p><p>　　<strong>第一财经</strong>：中国重启对全球经济意味着什么？后疫情时期，中国的增长动力在哪里？</p><p>　　<strong>卡普坦</strong>：2月起，中国经济尤其是消费方面将快速回升，对全球来说，最重要的潜在影响是能源需求上升，对全球旅游业也有积极作用，泰国、日本、澳大利亚、欧洲将会受惠。</p><p>　　房地产行业改善将提振中国经济，该板块去年或拖累经济增长3.5个百分点，今年预计只会拖累0.5个百分点。<strong>展望未来，待疫情形势稳定，中国经济将更倚重消费，同时减少对房地产和出口的依赖，经济更趋平衡，在复苏后的未来几年，GDP增速约为5%，更具可持续性。</strong></p><p>　　<strong>全球利率快将见顶</strong></p><p>　　<strong>第一财经</strong>：美国楼市正经历二战后的第二大回调，澳大利亚房价创全球金融危机以来的最大年度跌幅，英国房地产市场正面临深度冻结风险。新一轮全球楼市崩盘是否将至？在目前的市场泡沫中，主要市场的房价会跌多少？</p><p>　　<strong>卡普坦</strong>：<strong>全球确实处于楼市调整，抵押贷款利率飙升带来的负面冲击为近50年之最，全球范围内，抵押贷款利率平均上升约3个百分点，经计算，将造成约15%的房价回调。</strong>值得一提的是，全球金融危机以来的全球楼市繁荣，持续时间创下纪录之最，而这一势头正在终结，故很容易放大振幅，发生30%的房价修正。不过，此次调整不同于2008～2009年时期的次贷危机，因其对资产负债表的损害程度不同。</p><p>　　另外，除了大家熟知的澳大利亚和英国，全球许多国家采取的是浮动抵押贷款利率，欧洲一大半国家的浮动利率比例要高于英国，这将加剧对楼市的威胁，加大居民消费压力，造成额外的通胀困扰。</p><p>　　<strong>第一财经</strong>：美联储是否接近紧缩周期的尾声？</p><p>　　<strong>卡普坦</strong>：<strong>大多数发达国家央行的加息进程已经完成80%，还有一两个季度就会结束加息。</strong>欧央行去年12月的鹰派表态令人意外，货币前景不甚清晰，美联储方面，我们预计未来还会加息两次，澳大利亚、英格兰等央行也接近尾声，因此全球利率快将见顶。</p><p>　　有别于主流观点，瑞银预期今年7月美联储就会首次降息。原因之一是通缩情况远超人们想象；其二，如果我们对于美国衰退的预测准确，就业市场的确出现岗位流失，货币立场将会完全扭转，要知道在过去40年中，美联储降息前，愿意承受一个月以上就业负增长的情况只发生过一次。因此，现在一切都取决于就业市场的走向。</p><p>　　<strong>美股尚未见底，科技股下半年反弹</strong></p><p>　　<strong>第一财经：</strong>2022年美股创下2008年以来的最差年度表现，并且领跌全球大类资产，你认为美股是否已经见底？</p><p>　　<strong>卡普坦</strong>：这是当前最大的激辩之一，基于传统衰退模型，我们不认为美股已经见底，原因是当经济进入衰退，股市往往大幅下挫，企业盈利也需下调。我们认为，当前市场对盈利的预期偏高15%，而我们预测今年标普500指数成份股盈利将倒退11%。<strong>经济增长疲弱和企业盈利不振将拖累市场继续下探，预测标普500指数将于二季度低见3200点，可能至年底才会收复全年失地。</strong></p><p>　　市场产生分歧的原因在于，一旦进入衰退环境，资产就可计入降息因素，降息可抵消盈利疲弱的利空。总体而言，我认为，形势好转之前可能会变得更糟。</p><p>　　<strong>第一财经</strong>：我很好奇你对“科技股已死”这一观点的看法，毕竟去年纳指首次录得四季连跌，苹果、微软、Alphabet和亚马逊等明星科技股都经历了2008年以来的最糟糕一年。</p><p>　　<strong>卡普坦</strong>：科技股最受利率走高打击，随着美联储政策有望转向，板块应该会在未来数月得到稳定，<strong>2022年的流动性冲击将在今年下半年逆转，提振科技股实现反弹、跑赢大盘，故科技股的疲弱只是暂时的。</strong>另一方面，科技股正处于估值修正周期，价格本身具有自我修正机制，一旦折让幅度足够大，那么对科技股的需求就会反弹，我们正在接近这一时刻。</p><p>　　<strong>第一财经</strong>：60/40股债投资组合策略在2022年经历了自全球金融危机以来的最大损失，一些分析师认为该策略今年有望回归，你怎么看？</p><p>　　<strong>卡普坦</strong>：我不认同，有以下几点原因。<strong>瑞银预计，今年固收产品将录得创纪录的回报，尽管加息周期即将结束并有可能转向，但利率水平相对于股票收益仍然很高，故股票吸引力不足</strong>。更重要的是，全球增长处于历史低位，从企业盈利角度来看，持有股票也不会让你获得很多回报。</p><p>　　<strong>今年，回归传统60/40股债投资策略还为时过早，如果你想优化投资组合降低波动，股债比例大约在35/65(即35%的股票配置和65%的债券配置)，</strong>如果还想获得更高收益，债券比例应该更高。整体而言，我们会高配固定收益产品，低配股票，不过对中国A股会增加敞口。</p></p><p><strong>　　（文图：赵筱尘巫邓炎）</strong></p><div 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