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id="toc-Attributes-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Type_of_recession_or_shape" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Type_of_recession_or_shape"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 2.1 Type of recession or shape </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Type_of_recession_or_shape-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Psychological_aspects" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Psychological_aspects"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 2.2 Psychological aspects </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Psychological_aspects-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Balance_sheet_recession" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Balance_sheet_recession"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 2.3 Balance sheet recession </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Balance_sheet_recession-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Liquidity_trap" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Liquidity_trap"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 2.4 Liquidity trap </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Liquidity_trap-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Paradoxes_of_thrift_and_deleveraging" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Paradoxes_of_thrift_and_deleveraging"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 2.5 Paradoxes of thrift and deleveraging </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Paradoxes_of_thrift_and_deleveraging-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Causes_of_recessions" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Causes_of_recessions"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 3 Causes of recessions </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Causes_of_recessions-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Predictors" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Predictors"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 4 Predictors </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Predictors-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Government_responses" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Government_responses"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 5 Government responses </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Government_responses-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Stock_market" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Stock_market"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 6 Stock market </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Stock_market-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-U.S._politics" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#U.S._politics"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 7 U.S. politics </div> </a> <ul id="toc-U.S._politics-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Consequences" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Consequences"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 8 Consequences </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Consequences-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> Toggle Consequences subsection </button> <ul id="toc-Consequences-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Unemployment" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Unemployment"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 8.1 Unemployment </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Unemployment-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Business" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Business"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 8.2 Business </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Business-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Social_effects" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Social_effects"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 8.3 Social effects </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Social_effects-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-History" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#History"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 9 History </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-History-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> Toggle History subsection </button> <ul id="toc-History-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Global" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Global"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 9.1 Global </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Global-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Australia" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Australia"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 9.2 Australia </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Australia-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-European_Union" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#European_Union"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 9.3 European Union </div> </a> <ul id="toc-European_Union-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-United_Kingdom" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#United_Kingdom"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 9.4 United Kingdom </div> </a> <ul id="toc-United_Kingdom-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-United_States" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#United_States"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 9.5 United States </div> </a> <ul id="toc-United_States-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Late_2000s" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Late_2000s"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 9.6 Late 2000s </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Late_2000s-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-United_States_2" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#United_States_2"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 9.6.1 United States </div> </a> <ul id="toc-United_States_2-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-See_also" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 10 See also </div> </a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#References"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 11 References </div> </a> <ul id="toc-References-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-External_links" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#External_links"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 12 External links </div> </a> <ul id="toc-External_links-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="Contents" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-titlebar-toc vector-button-flush-left" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Toggle the table of contents" > <label id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-label" for="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" > Toggle the table of contents </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading mw-first-heading">Recession: Difference between revisions</h1> <div id="p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-lang" > <input type="checkbox" id="p-lang-btn-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox mw-interlanguage-selector" aria-label="Go to an article in another language. Available in 71 languages" > <label id="p-lang-btn-label" for="p-lang-btn-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive mw-portlet-lang-heading-71" aria-hidden="true" > 71 languages </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-af mw-list-item"><a href="https://af.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resessie" title="Resessie – Afrikaans" lang="af" hreflang="af" data-title="Resessie" data-language-autonym="Afrikaans" data-language-local-name="Afrikaans" class="interlanguage-link-target">Afrikaans</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ar mw-list-item"><a href="https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%88%D8%AF" title="ركود – Arabic" lang="ar" hreflang="ar" data-title="ركود" data-language-autonym="العربية" data-language-local-name="Arabic" class="interlanguage-link-target">العربية</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ast mw-list-item"><a href="https://ast.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesi%C3%B3n" title="Recesión – Asturian" lang="ast" hreflang="ast" data-title="Recesión" data-language-autonym="Asturianu" data-language-local-name="Asturian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Asturianu</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-az mw-list-item"><a href="https://az.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resessiya_(iqtisadiyyat)" title="Resessiya (iqtisadiyyat) – Azerbaijani" lang="az" hreflang="az" data-title="Resessiya (iqtisadiyyat)" data-language-autonym="Azərbaycanca" data-language-local-name="Azerbaijani" class="interlanguage-link-target">Azərbaycanca</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-bn mw-list-item"><a href="https://bn.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%A6%85%E0%A6%B0%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%A5%E0%A6%A8%E0%A7%88%E0%A6%A4%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%95_%E0%A6%AE%E0%A6%A8%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%A6%E0%A6%BE" title="অর্থনৈতিক মন্দা – Bangla" lang="bn" hreflang="bn" data-title="অর্থনৈতিক মন্দা" data-language-autonym="বাংলা" data-language-local-name="Bangla" class="interlanguage-link-target">বাংলা</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-be-x-old mw-list-item"><a href="https://be-tarask.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D1%8D%D1%86%D1%8D%D1%81%D1%96%D1%8F" title="Рэцэсія – Belarusian (Taraškievica orthography)" lang="be-tarask" hreflang="be-tarask" data-title="Рэцэсія" data-language-autonym="Беларуская (тарашкевіца)" data-language-local-name="Belarusian (Taraškievica orthography)" class="interlanguage-link-target">Беларуская (тарашкевіца)</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-bg badge-Q70893996 mw-list-item" title=""><a href="https://bg.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%8F_(%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B0)" title="Рецесия (икономика) – Bulgarian" lang="bg" hreflang="bg" data-title="Рецесия (икономика)" data-language-autonym="Български" data-language-local-name="Bulgarian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Български</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-bs mw-list-item"><a href="https://bs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesija" title="Recesija – Bosnian" lang="bs" hreflang="bs" data-title="Recesija" data-language-autonym="Bosanski" data-language-local-name="Bosnian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Bosanski</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ca mw-list-item"><a href="https://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recessi%C3%B3" title="Recessió – Catalan" lang="ca" hreflang="ca" data-title="Recessió" data-language-autonym="Català" data-language-local-name="Catalan" class="interlanguage-link-target">Català</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-cs mw-list-item"><a href="https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recese" title="Recese – Czech" lang="cs" hreflang="cs" data-title="Recese" data-language-autonym="Čeština" data-language-local-name="Czech" class="interlanguage-link-target">Čeština</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-cy mw-list-item"><a href="https://cy.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirwasgiad" title="Dirwasgiad – Welsh" lang="cy" hreflang="cy" data-title="Dirwasgiad" data-language-autonym="Cymraeg" data-language-local-name="Welsh" class="interlanguage-link-target">Cymraeg</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-da mw-list-item"><a href="https://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession" title="Recession – Danish" lang="da" hreflang="da" data-title="Recession" data-language-autonym="Dansk" data-language-local-name="Danish" class="interlanguage-link-target">Dansk</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Konjunktur#Rezession" title="Konjunktur – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Konjunktur" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target">Deutsch</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-et mw-list-item"><a href="https://et.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majanduslangus" title="Majanduslangus – Estonian" lang="et" hreflang="et" data-title="Majanduslangus" data-language-autonym="Eesti" data-language-local-name="Estonian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Eesti</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-el mw-list-item"><a href="https://el.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CE%8E%CF%86%CE%B5%CF%83%CE%B7" title="Ύφεση – Greek" lang="el" hreflang="el" data-title="Ύφεση" data-language-autonym="Ελληνικά" data-language-local-name="Greek" class="interlanguage-link-target">Ελληνικά</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesi%C3%B3n" title="Recesión – Spanish" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="Recesión" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="Spanish" class="interlanguage-link-target">Español</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-eo mw-list-item"><a href="https://eo.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesio" title="Recesio – Esperanto" lang="eo" hreflang="eo" data-title="Recesio" data-language-autonym="Esperanto" data-language-local-name="Esperanto" class="interlanguage-link-target">Esperanto</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-eu mw-list-item"><a href="https://eu.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atzeraldi" title="Atzeraldi – Basque" lang="eu" hreflang="eu" data-title="Atzeraldi" data-language-autonym="Euskara" data-language-local-name="Basque" class="interlanguage-link-target">Euskara</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fa mw-list-item"><a href="https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%DA%A9%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%AF%DB%8C" title="کسادی – Persian" lang="fa" hreflang="fa" data-title="کسادی" data-language-autonym="فارسی" data-language-local-name="Persian" class="interlanguage-link-target">فارسی</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%A9cession_(%C3%A9conomie)" title="Récession (économie) – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Récession (économie)" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target">Français</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-gd mw-list-item"><a href="https://gd.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seacadh" title="Seacadh – Scottish Gaelic" lang="gd" hreflang="gd" data-title="Seacadh" data-language-autonym="Gàidhlig" data-language-local-name="Scottish Gaelic" class="interlanguage-link-target">Gàidhlig</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-gl mw-list-item"><a href="https://gl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesi%C3%B3n" title="Recesión – Galician" lang="gl" hreflang="gl" data-title="Recesión" data-language-autonym="Galego" data-language-local-name="Galician" class="interlanguage-link-target">Galego</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ko mw-list-item"><a href="https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EA%B2%BD%EA%B8%B0%ED%9B%84%ED%87%B4" title="경기후퇴 – Korean" lang="ko" hreflang="ko" data-title="경기후퇴" data-language-autonym="한국어" data-language-local-name="Korean" class="interlanguage-link-target">한국어</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-hi mw-list-item"><a href="https://hi.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%B0%E0%A5%8D%E0%A4%A5%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%95_%E0%A4%B6%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%A5%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%B2%E0%A4%A4%E0%A4%BE" title="आर्थिक शिथिलता – Hindi" lang="hi" hreflang="hi" data-title="आर्थिक शिथिलता" data-language-autonym="हिन्दी" data-language-local-name="Hindi" class="interlanguage-link-target">हिन्दी</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-hr mw-list-item"><a href="https://hr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesija" title="Recesija – Croatian" lang="hr" hreflang="hr" data-title="Recesija" data-language-autonym="Hrvatski" data-language-local-name="Croatian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Hrvatski</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-id mw-list-item"><a href="https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resesi" title="Resesi – Indonesian" lang="id" hreflang="id" data-title="Resesi" data-language-autonym="Bahasa Indonesia" data-language-local-name="Indonesian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Bahasa Indonesia</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-it mw-list-item"><a href="https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recessione" title="Recessione – Italian" lang="it" hreflang="it" data-title="Recessione" data-language-autonym="Italiano" data-language-local-name="Italian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Italiano</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-he mw-list-item"><a href="https://he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%9E%D7%99%D7%AA%D7%95%D7%9F" title="מיתון – Hebrew" lang="he" hreflang="he" data-title="מיתון" data-language-autonym="עברית" data-language-local-name="Hebrew" class="interlanguage-link-target">עברית</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-kk mw-list-item"><a href="https://kk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%8F" title="Рецессия – Kazakh" lang="kk" hreflang="kk" data-title="Рецессия" data-language-autonym="Қазақша" data-language-local-name="Kazakh" class="interlanguage-link-target">Қазақша</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-lo mw-list-item"><a href="https://lo.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%BB%80%E0%BA%AA%E0%BA%94%E0%BA%96%E0%BA%B0%E0%BA%81%E0%BA%B4%E0%BA%94%E0%BA%95%E0%BA%BB%E0%BA%81%E0%BA%95%E0%BB%8D%E0%BB%88%E0%BA%B2" title="ເສດຖະກິດຕົກຕໍ່າ – Lao" lang="lo" hreflang="lo" data-title="ເສດຖະກິດຕົກຕໍ່າ" data-language-autonym="ລາວ" data-language-local-name="Lao" class="interlanguage-link-target">ລາວ</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-la mw-list-item"><a href="https://la.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recessio_oeconomica" title="Recessio oeconomica – Latin" lang="la" hreflang="la" data-title="Recessio oeconomica" data-language-autonym="Latina" data-language-local-name="Latin" class="interlanguage-link-target">Latina</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-lv mw-list-item"><a href="https://lv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lejupsl%C4%ABde_(ekonomika)" title="Lejupslīde (ekonomika) – Latvian" lang="lv" hreflang="lv" data-title="Lejupslīde (ekonomika)" data-language-autonym="Latviešu" data-language-local-name="Latvian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Latviešu</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-lb mw-list-item"><a href="https://lb.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rezessioun" title="Rezessioun – Luxembourgish" lang="lb" hreflang="lb" data-title="Rezessioun" data-language-autonym="Lëtzebuergesch" data-language-local-name="Luxembourgish" class="interlanguage-link-target">Lëtzebuergesch</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-lt mw-list-item"><a href="https://lt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesija" title="Recesija – Lithuanian" lang="lt" hreflang="lt" data-title="Recesija" data-language-autonym="Lietuvių" data-language-local-name="Lithuanian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Lietuvių</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-hu mw-list-item"><a href="https://hu.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesszi%C3%B3" title="Recesszió – Hungarian" lang="hu" hreflang="hu" data-title="Recesszió" data-language-autonym="Magyar" data-language-local-name="Hungarian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Magyar</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-mk mw-list-item"><a href="https://mk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%98%D0%B0" title="Рецесија – Macedonian" lang="mk" hreflang="mk" data-title="Рецесија" data-language-autonym="Македонски" data-language-local-name="Macedonian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Македонски</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-mr mw-list-item"><a href="https://mr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%A4%AE%E0%A4%82%E0%A4%A6%E0%A5%80" title="मंदी – Marathi" lang="mr" hreflang="mr" data-title="मंदी" data-language-autonym="मराठी" data-language-local-name="Marathi" class="interlanguage-link-target">मराठी</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ms mw-list-item"><a href="https://ms.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kemelesetan" title="Kemelesetan – Malay" lang="ms" hreflang="ms" data-title="Kemelesetan" data-language-autonym="Bahasa Melayu" data-language-local-name="Malay" class="interlanguage-link-target">Bahasa Melayu</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-nl mw-list-item"><a href="https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recessie" title="Recessie – Dutch" lang="nl" hreflang="nl" data-title="Recessie" data-language-autonym="Nederlands" data-language-local-name="Dutch" class="interlanguage-link-target">Nederlands</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ja mw-list-item"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%99%AF%E6%B0%97%E5%BE%8C%E9%80%80" title="景気後退 – Japanese" lang="ja" hreflang="ja" data-title="景気後退" data-language-autonym="日本語" data-language-local-name="Japanese" class="interlanguage-link-target">日本語</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-no mw-list-item"><a href="https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resesjon" title="Resesjon – Norwegian Bokmål" lang="nb" hreflang="nb" data-title="Resesjon" data-language-autonym="Norsk bokmål" data-language-local-name="Norwegian Bokmål" class="interlanguage-link-target">Norsk bokmål</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-nn mw-list-item"><a href="https://nn.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resesjon" title="Resesjon – Norwegian Nynorsk" lang="nn" hreflang="nn" data-title="Resesjon" data-language-autonym="Norsk nynorsk" data-language-local-name="Norwegian Nynorsk" class="interlanguage-link-target">Norsk nynorsk</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pnb mw-list-item"><a href="https://pnb.wikipedia.org/wiki/%DA%A9%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%AF_%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C" title="کساد بازاری – Western Punjabi" lang="pnb" hreflang="pnb" data-title="کساد بازاری" data-language-autonym="پنجابی" data-language-local-name="Western Punjabi" class="interlanguage-link-target">پنجابی</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pl mw-list-item"><a href="https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesja_gospodarcza" title="Recesja gospodarcza – Polish" lang="pl" hreflang="pl" data-title="Recesja gospodarcza" data-language-autonym="Polski" data-language-local-name="Polish" class="interlanguage-link-target">Polski</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pt mw-list-item"><a href="https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recess%C3%A3o" title="Recessão – Portuguese" lang="pt" hreflang="pt" data-title="Recessão" data-language-autonym="Português" data-language-local-name="Portuguese" class="interlanguage-link-target">Português</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ro mw-list-item"><a href="https://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesiune_(economie)" title="Recesiune (economie) – Romanian" lang="ro" hreflang="ro" data-title="Recesiune (economie)" data-language-autonym="Română" data-language-local-name="Romanian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Română</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ru mw-list-item"><a href="https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%8F" title="Рецессия – Russian" lang="ru" hreflang="ru" data-title="Рецессия" data-language-autonym="Русский" data-language-local-name="Russian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Русский</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sah mw-list-item"><a href="https://sah.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%8F" title="Рецессия – Yakut" lang="sah" hreflang="sah" data-title="Рецессия" data-language-autonym="Саха тыла" data-language-local-name="Yakut" class="interlanguage-link-target">Саха тыла</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sq mw-list-item"><a href="https://sq.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesioni" title="Recesioni – Albanian" lang="sq" hreflang="sq" data-title="Recesioni" data-language-autonym="Shqip" data-language-local-name="Albanian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Shqip</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-scn mw-list-item"><a href="https://scn.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discisa" title="Discisa – Sicilian" lang="scn" hreflang="scn" data-title="Discisa" data-language-autonym="Sicilianu" data-language-local-name="Sicilian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Sicilianu</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-simple mw-list-item"><a href="https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession" title="Recession – Simple English" lang="en-simple" hreflang="en-simple" data-title="Recession" data-language-autonym="Simple English" data-language-local-name="Simple English" class="interlanguage-link-target">Simple English</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sk mw-list-item"><a href="https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesia_(ekon%C3%B3mia)" title="Recesia (ekonómia) – Slovak" lang="sk" hreflang="sk" data-title="Recesia (ekonómia)" data-language-autonym="Slovenčina" data-language-local-name="Slovak" class="interlanguage-link-target">Slovenčina</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sl mw-list-item"><a href="https://sl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesija" title="Recesija – Slovenian" lang="sl" hreflang="sl" data-title="Recesija" data-language-autonym="Slovenščina" data-language-local-name="Slovenian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Slovenščina</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sr mw-list-item"><a href="https://sr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesija" title="Recesija – Serbian" lang="sr" hreflang="sr" data-title="Recesija" data-language-autonym="Српски / srpski" data-language-local-name="Serbian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Српски / srpski</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sh mw-list-item"><a href="https://sh.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesija" title="Recesija – Serbo-Croatian" lang="sh" hreflang="sh" data-title="Recesija" data-language-autonym="Srpskohrvatski / српскохрватски" data-language-local-name="Serbo-Croatian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Srpskohrvatski / српскохрватски</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fi mw-list-item"><a href="https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taantuma" title="Taantuma – Finnish" lang="fi" hreflang="fi" data-title="Taantuma" data-language-autonym="Suomi" data-language-local-name="Finnish" class="interlanguage-link-target">Suomi</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sv mw-list-item"><a href="https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession" title="Recession – Swedish" lang="sv" hreflang="sv" data-title="Recession" data-language-autonym="Svenska" data-language-local-name="Swedish" class="interlanguage-link-target">Svenska</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-tl mw-list-item"><a href="https://tl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resesyon" title="Resesyon – Tagalog" lang="tl" hreflang="tl" data-title="Resesyon" data-language-autonym="Tagalog" data-language-local-name="Tagalog" class="interlanguage-link-target">Tagalog</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ta mw-list-item"><a href="https://ta.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%AE%AA%E0%AF%8A%E0%AE%B0%E0%AF%81%E0%AE%B3%E0%AE%BF%E0%AE%AF%E0%AE%B2%E0%AF%8D_%E0%AE%AA%E0%AE%BF%E0%AE%A9%E0%AF%8D%E0%AE%A9%E0%AE%9F%E0%AF%88%E0%AE%B5%E0%AF%81" title="பொருளியல் பின்னடைவு – Tamil" lang="ta" hreflang="ta" data-title="பொருளியல் பின்னடைவு" data-language-autonym="தமிழ்" data-language-local-name="Tamil" class="interlanguage-link-target">தமிழ்</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-th mw-list-item"><a href="https://th.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%B8%A0%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A7%E0%B8%B0%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%A8%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%A9%E0%B8%90%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B4%E0%B8%88%E0%B8%96%E0%B8%94%E0%B8%96%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%A2" title="ภาวะเศรษฐกิจถดถอย – Thai" lang="th" hreflang="th" data-title="ภาวะเศรษฐกิจถดถอย" data-language-autonym="ไทย" data-language-local-name="Thai" class="interlanguage-link-target">ไทย</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-tr mw-list-item"><a href="https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resesyon" title="Resesyon – Turkish" lang="tr" hreflang="tr" data-title="Resesyon" data-language-autonym="Türkçe" data-language-local-name="Turkish" class="interlanguage-link-target">Türkçe</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-uk mw-list-item"><a href="https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%96%D1%8F" title="Рецесія – Ukrainian" lang="uk" hreflang="uk" data-title="Рецесія" data-language-autonym="Українська" data-language-local-name="Ukrainian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Українська</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ur mw-list-item"><a href="https://ur.wikipedia.org/wiki/%DA%A9%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%AF_%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C" title="کساد بازاری – Urdu" lang="ur" hreflang="ur" data-title="کساد بازاری" data-language-autonym="اردو" data-language-local-name="Urdu" class="interlanguage-link-target">اردو</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-vec mw-list-item"><a href="https://vec.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recesion" title="Recesion – Venetian" lang="vec" hreflang="vec" data-title="Recesion" data-language-autonym="Vèneto" data-language-local-name="Venetian" class="interlanguage-link-target">Vèneto</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-vi mw-list-item"><a href="https://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suy_tho%C3%A1i_kinh_t%E1%BA%BF" title="Suy thoái kinh tế – Vietnamese" lang="vi" hreflang="vi" data-title="Suy thoái kinh tế" data-language-autonym="Tiếng Việt" data-language-local-name="Vietnamese" class="interlanguage-link-target">Tiếng Việt</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-wa mw-list-item"><a href="https://wa.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rastrind%C3%A5jhe_economike" title="Rastrindåjhe economike – Walloon" lang="wa" hreflang="wa" data-title="Rastrindåjhe economike" data-language-autonym="Walon" data-language-local-name="Walloon" class="interlanguage-link-target">Walon</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-wuu mw-list-item"><a href="https://wuu.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E8%A1%B0%E9%80%80" title="经济衰退 – Wu" lang="wuu" hreflang="wuu" data-title="经济衰退" data-language-autonym="吴语" data-language-local-name="Wu" class="interlanguage-link-target">吴语</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-yi mw-list-item"><a href="https://yi.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%A8%D7%A2%D7%A1%D7%A2%D7%A1%D7%99%D7%A2" title="רעסעסיע – Yiddish" lang="yi" hreflang="yi" data-title="רעסעסיע" data-language-autonym="ייִדיש" data-language-local-name="Yiddish" class="interlanguage-link-target">ייִדיש</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-zh-yue mw-list-item"><a href="https://zh-yue.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E8%A1%B0%E9%80%80" title="經濟衰退 – Cantonese" lang="yue" hreflang="yue" data-title="經濟衰退" data-language-autonym="粵語" data-language-local-name="Cantonese" class="interlanguage-link-target">粵語</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-diq mw-list-item"><a href="https://diq.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resesyon" title="Resesyon – Zazaki" lang="diq" hreflang="diq" data-title="Resesyon" data-language-autonym="Zazaki" data-language-local-name="Zazaki" class="interlanguage-link-target">Zazaki</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-zh mw-list-item"><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E8%A1%B0%E9%80%80" title="经济衰退 – Chinese" lang="zh" hreflang="zh" data-title="经济衰退" data-language-autonym="中文" data-language-local-name="Chinese" 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reverts this edit and opens the edit form in preview mode. It allows adding a reason in the summary.">undo</a></div><div id="mw-diff-ntitle2"><a href="/wiki/Special:Contributions/2A04:1C40:6AB5:0:D91D:C86B:2752:CD54" class="mw-userlink mw-anonuserlink" title="Special:Contributions/2A04:1C40:6AB5:0:D91D:C86B:2752:CD54" data-mw-revid="1243110979"><bdi>2a04:1c40:6ab5:0:d91d:c86b:2752:cd54</bdi></a> (<a href="/w/index.php?title=User_talk:2A04:1C40:6AB5:0:D91D:C86B:2752:CD54&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new mw-usertoollinks-talk" title="User talk:2A04:1C40:6AB5:0:D91D:C86B:2752:CD54 (page does not exist)">talk</a>)<div class="mw-diff-usermetadata"></div></div><div id="mw-diff-ntitle3"> <a href="#Predictors">→<bdi dir="ltr">Predictors</bdi></a>: Added disinversion of the yield curve as recession signal.</div><div id="mw-diff-ntitle5"><a href="/wiki/Special:Tags" title="Special:Tags">Tag</a>: Reverted</div><div id="mw-diff-ntitle4"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Recession&diff=next&oldid=1243110979" title="Recession" id="differences-nextlink">Next edit →</a></div></td> </tr><tr> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 176:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 176:</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="diff-marker"></td> <td class="diff-context diff-side-deleted"><div>* The long-term spread: The spread between a shorter-term rate (like the three-month Treasury yield) and 10-year U.S. bond yields. The long-term Treasury yield spread has been particularly effective at predicting recessions many months in advance, achieving an AUC (Area Under the [[Receiver operating characteristic|Receiver Operating Characteristic]] curve) value of 0.89 at 14 months ahead. And it is the best predictor at a horizon of 16 to 20 months ahead, when compared to other leading indicators.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/425 | last=Kelley | first=David |title=Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?|date=2019|website=Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago}}</ref></div></td> <td class="diff-marker"></td> <td class="diff-context diff-side-added"><div>* The long-term spread: The spread between a shorter-term rate (like the three-month Treasury yield) and 10-year U.S. bond yields. The long-term Treasury yield spread has been particularly effective at predicting recessions many months in advance, achieving an AUC (Area Under the [[Receiver operating characteristic|Receiver Operating Characteristic]] curve) value of 0.89 at 14 months ahead. And it is the best predictor at a horizon of 16 to 20 months ahead, when compared to other leading indicators.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/425 | last=Kelley | first=David |title=Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?|date=2019|website=Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago}}</ref></div></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="diff-marker"></td> <td class="diff-context diff-side-deleted"><div>* The near-term forward spread: This is the difference between the market expectation of the interest rate on a three-month Treasury bill six quarters in the future and the current three-month Treasury bill yield.<ref>{{cite journal | last1=Engstrom | first1=Eric C. | last2=Sharpe | first2=Steven A. | title=The near-term forward yield spread as a leading indicator: A less distorted mirror, | journal=Finance and Economics Discussion Series | publisher=Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System | volume=2018-055 | date=February 2019 | doi=10.17016/FEDS.2018.055r1 | url=https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-near-term-forward-yield-spread-as-a-leading-indicator-a-less-distorted-mirror.htm }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/425 | last=Kelley | first=David |title=Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?|date=2019|website=Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago}}</ref></div></td> <td class="diff-marker"></td> <td class="diff-context diff-side-added"><div>* The near-term forward spread: This is the difference between the market expectation of the interest rate on a three-month Treasury bill six quarters in the future and the current three-month Treasury bill yield.<ref>{{cite journal | last1=Engstrom | first1=Eric C. | last2=Sharpe | first2=Steven A. | title=The near-term forward yield spread as a leading indicator: A less distorted mirror, | journal=Finance and Economics Discussion Series | publisher=Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System | volume=2018-055 | date=February 2019 | doi=10.17016/FEDS.2018.055r1 | url=https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-near-term-forward-yield-spread-as-a-leading-indicator-a-less-distorted-mirror.htm }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/425 | last=Kelley | first=David |title=Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?|date=2019|website=Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago}}</ref></div></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" class="diff-empty diff-side-deleted"></td> <td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td> <td class="diff-addedline diff-side-added"><div>* An [[inverted yield curve]] can indicate that a recession may be on the horizon as it has historically often preceded economic downturns with lead times ranging from several months to over a year. Especially the disinversion, a move back into positive territory for the spread between the shorter (e.g. 3-month or 2-year) yield and the longer (e.g. 10-year) Treasury yield, has in the past, been a reliable recession signal as the curve usually disinverts (or un-inverts) nearly before the recession truly appears. Based on recent history, the last four recessions, as of Q2-2024, didn’t start until the inverted curve returned to a positive reading (steepens). Further analysis shows that "the average time to recession (...) [is] only 66 days from when the [3-month/10-year] curve disinverts."<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/yield-curve-disinversion-is-recession-signal-watch-2024-06-04/|title=Yield curve disinversion is the recession signal to watch|first=Jamie|last=McGeever|newspaper=Reuters|date=5 June 2024|access-date=30 August 2024|archive-date=30 August 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240830145138/https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/yield-curve-disinversion-is-recession-signal-watch-2024-06-04/|url-status=live}}</ref></div></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td> <td class="diff-deletedline diff-side-deleted"><div>* An [[inverted yield curve]] can indicate that a recession may be on the horizon as it has historically often preceded economic downturns with lead times ranging from several months to over a year.</div></td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-empty diff-side-added"></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="diff-marker"></td> <td class="diff-context diff-side-deleted"><div>* The S&P 500 and BBB bond spread.<ref>[https://www.ncsl.org/Portals/1/Documents/fiscal/Fiscal_2020_meetings/Jesse_Edgerton_US_Outlook_Presentation_34375.pdf] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201206013511/https://www.ncsl.org/Portals/1/Documents/fiscal/Fiscal_2020_meetings/Jesse_Edgerton_US_Outlook_Presentation_34375.pdf|date=6 December 2020}} JPMorgan | The US Economic Outlook | Feb. 2020 | Page 22]</ref></div></td> <td class="diff-marker"></td> <td class="diff-context diff-side-added"><div>* The S&P 500 and BBB bond spread.<ref>[https://www.ncsl.org/Portals/1/Documents/fiscal/Fiscal_2020_meetings/Jesse_Edgerton_US_Outlook_Presentation_34375.pdf] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201206013511/https://www.ncsl.org/Portals/1/Documents/fiscal/Fiscal_2020_meetings/Jesse_Edgerton_US_Outlook_Presentation_34375.pdf|date=6 December 2020}} JPMorgan | The US Economic Outlook | Feb. 2020 | Page 22]</ref></div></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="diff-marker"></td> <td class="diff-context diff-side-deleted"> </td> <td class="diff-marker"></td> <td class="diff-context diff-side-added"> </td> </tr> </table><hr class='diff-hr' id='mw-oldid' /> <h2 class='diff-currentversion-title'>Revision as of 15:27, 30 August 2024</h2> <div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux" style="display:none">Business cycle contraction</div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">This article is about a slowdown in economic activity. For other uses, see <a href="/wiki/Recession_(disambiguation)" class="mw-disambig" title="Recession (disambiguation)">Recession (disambiguation)</a>.</div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1129693374">.mw-parser-output .hlist dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul{margin:0;padding:0}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt,.mw-parser-output .hlist li{margin:0;display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul ul{display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist .mw-empty-li{display:none}.mw-parser-output .hlist dt::after{content:": "}.mw-parser-output .hlist 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.sidebar-title-with-pretitle a{color:var(--color-progressive)!important}}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .sidebar{display:none!important}}</style><table class="sidebar sidebar-collapse nomobile nowraplinks"><tbody><tr><td class="sidebar-pretitle">Part of <a href="/wiki/Category:Macroeconomics" title="Category:Macroeconomics">a series</a> on</td></tr><tr><th class="sidebar-title-with-pretitle"><a href="/wiki/Macroeconomics" title="Macroeconomics">Macroeconomics</a></th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-image" style="padding-top:0.6em;"><a href="/wiki/File:Ec_8_(26088200676)_(cropped).jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="Federal Reserve" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8f/Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg/220px-Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg" decoding="async" width="220" height="150" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8f/Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg/330px-Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8f/Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg/440px-Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg 2x" data-file-width="2400" data-file-height="1633" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)">Basic concepts</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Aggregate_demand" title="Aggregate demand">Aggregate demand</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Aggregate_supply" title="Aggregate supply">Aggregate supply</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Business_cycle" title="Business cycle">Business cycle</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate" title="Compound annual growth rate">CAGR</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Deflation" title="Deflation">Deflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Demand_shock" title="Demand shock">Demand shock</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disinflation" title="Disinflation">Disinflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effective_demand" title="Effective demand">Effective demand</a></li> <li>Expectations <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Adaptive_expectations" title="Adaptive expectations">Adaptive</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rational_expectations" title="Rational expectations">Rational</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Financial_crisis" title="Financial crisis">Financial crisis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_growth" title="Economic growth">Growth</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Inflation" title="Inflation">Inflation</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Demand-pull_inflation" title="Demand-pull inflation">Demand-pull</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cost-push_inflation" title="Cost-push inflation">Cost-push</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Interest_rate" title="Interest rate">Interest rate</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Investment_(macroeconomics)" title="Investment (macroeconomics)">Investment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Liquidity_trap" title="Liquidity trap">Liquidity trap</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Measures_of_national_income_and_output" title="Measures of national income and output">Measures of national income and output</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Gross_domestic_product" title="Gross domestic product">GDP</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gross_national_income" title="Gross national income">GNI</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Net_national_income" title="Net national income">NNI</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Microfoundations" title="Microfoundations">Microfoundations</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Money" title="Money">Money</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Endogenous_money" title="Endogenous money">Endogenous</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Money_creation" title="Money creation">Money creation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Demand_for_money" title="Demand for money">Demand for money</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Liquidity_preference" title="Liquidity preference">Liquidity preference</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Money_supply" title="Money supply">Money supply</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_accounts" title="National accounts">National accounts</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/System_of_National_Accounts" title="System of National Accounts">SNA</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nominal_rigidity" title="Nominal rigidity">Nominal rigidity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Price_level" title="Price level">Price level</a></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Recession</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shrinkflation" title="Shrinkflation">Shrinkflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stagflation" title="Stagflation">Stagflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Supply_shock" title="Supply shock">Supply shock</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_saving" title="National saving">Saving</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Unemployment" title="Unemployment">Unemployment</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)">Policies</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fiscal_policy" title="Fiscal policy">Fiscal</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Monetary_policy" title="Monetary policy">Monetary</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Commercial_policy" title="Commercial policy">Commercial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Central_bank" title="Central bank">Central bank</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Universal_basic_income" title="Universal basic income">Universal basic income</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)">Models</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/IS%E2%80%93LM_model" title="IS–LM model">IS–LM</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/AD%E2%80%93AS_model" title="AD–AS model">AD–AS</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Keynesian_cross" title="Keynesian cross">Keynesian cross</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multiplier_(economics)" title="Multiplier (economics)">Multiplier</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Accelerator_effect" title="Accelerator effect">Accelerator</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Phillips_curve" title="Phillips curve">Phillips curve</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arrow%E2%80%93Debreu_model" title="Arrow–Debreu model">Arrow–Debreu</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Harrod%E2%80%93Domar_model" title="Harrod–Domar model">Harrod–Domar</a>Нмиф</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Solow%E2%80%93Swan_model" title="Solow–Swan model">Solow–Swan</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ramsey%E2%80%93Cass%E2%80%93Koopmans_model" title="Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans model">Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overlapping_generations_model" title="Overlapping generations model">Overlapping generations</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/General_equilibrium_theory" title="General equilibrium theory">General equilibrium</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Dynamic_stochastic_general_equilibrium" title="Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium">DSGE</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Endogenous_growth_theory" title="Endogenous growth theory">Endogenous growth</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Matching_theory_(economics)" class="mw-redirect" title="Matching theory (economics)">Matching theory</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mundell%E2%80%93Fleming_model" title="Mundell–Fleming model">Mundell–Fleming</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overshooting_model" title="Overshooting model">Overshooting</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU">NAIRU</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)">Related fields</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Econometrics" title="Econometrics">Econometrics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_statistics" title="Economic statistics">Economic statistics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Monetary_economics" title="Monetary economics">Monetary economics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Development_economics" title="Development economics">Development economics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/International_economics" title="International economics">International economics</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)"><a href="/wiki/History_of_macroeconomic_thought" title="History of macroeconomic thought">Schools</a></div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist">Mainstream <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Keynesian_economics" title="Keynesian economics">Keynesian</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Neo-Keynesian_economics" class="mw-redirect" title="Neo-Keynesian economics">Neo-</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_Keynesian_economics" title="New Keynesian economics">New</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Monetarism" title="Monetarism">Monetarism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_classical_macroeconomics" title="New classical macroeconomics">New classical</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Real_business-cycle_theory" title="Real business-cycle theory">Real business-cycle theory</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stockholm_school_(economics)" class="mw-redirect" title="Stockholm school (economics)">Stockholm</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Supply-side_economics" title="Supply-side economics">Supply-side</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_neoclassical_synthesis" title="New neoclassical synthesis">New neoclassical synthesis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Saltwater_and_freshwater_economics" title="Saltwater and freshwater economics">Saltwater and freshwater</a></li></ul> Heterodox <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Austrian_School" class="mw-redirect" title="Austrian School">Austrian</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Chartalism" title="Chartalism">Chartalism</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Modern_monetary_theory" title="Modern monetary theory">Modern monetary theory</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecological_economics" title="Ecological economics">Ecological</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Post-Keynesian_economics" title="Post-Keynesian economics">Post-Keynesian</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Monetary_circuit_theory" title="Monetary circuit theory">Circuitism</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disequilibrium_macroeconomics" title="Disequilibrium macroeconomics">Disequilibrium</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Marxian_economics" title="Marxian economics">Marxian</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Market_monetarism" title="Market monetarism">Market monetarism</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)"><a href="/wiki/Category:Macroeconomists" title="Category:Macroeconomists">People</a></div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fran%C3%A7ois_Quesnay" title="François Quesnay">François Quesnay</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Adam_Smith" title="Adam Smith">Adam Smith</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus" title="Thomas Robert Malthus">Thomas Robert Malthus</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Karl_Marx" title="Karl Marx">Karl Marx</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/L%C3%A9on_Walras" title="Léon Walras">Léon Walras</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Knut_Wicksell" title="Knut Wicksell">Knut Wicksell</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Irving_Fisher" title="Irving Fisher">Irving Fisher</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wesley_Clair_Mitchell" title="Wesley Clair Mitchell">Wesley Clair Mitchell</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes" title="John Maynard Keynes">John Maynard Keynes</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Alvin_Hansen" title="Alvin Hansen">Alvin Hansen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Micha%C5%82_Kalecki" title="Michał Kalecki">Michał Kalecki</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gunnar_Myrdal" title="Gunnar Myrdal">Gunnar Myrdal</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Simon_Kuznets" title="Simon Kuznets">Simon Kuznets</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Joan_Robinson" title="Joan Robinson">Joan Robinson</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek" title="Friedrich Hayek">Friedrich Hayek</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/John_Hicks" title="John Hicks">John Hicks</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Richard_Stone" title="Richard Stone">Richard Stone</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hyman_Minsky" title="Hyman Minsky">Hyman Minsky</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Milton_Friedman" title="Milton Friedman">Milton Friedman</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paul_Samuelson" title="Paul Samuelson">Paul Samuelson</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Lawrence_Klein" title="Lawrence Klein">Lawrence Klein</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Edmund_Phelps" title="Edmund Phelps">Edmund Phelps</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Robert_Lucas_Jr." title="Robert Lucas Jr.">Robert Lucas Jr.</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Edward_C._Prescott" title="Edward C. Prescott">Edward C. Prescott</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Peter_Diamond" title="Peter Diamond">Peter Diamond</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/William_Nordhaus" title="William Nordhaus">William Nordhaus</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Joseph_Stiglitz" title="Joseph Stiglitz">Joseph Stiglitz</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Thomas_J._Sargent" title="Thomas J. Sargent">Thomas J. Sargent</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paul_Krugman" title="Paul Krugman">Paul Krugman</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greg_Mankiw" title="Greg Mankiw">N. Gregory Mankiw</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)">See also</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Macroeconomic_model" title="Macroeconomic model">Macroeconomic model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_important_publications_in_economics#Macroeconomics" title="List of important publications in economics">Publications in macroeconomics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economics" title="Economics">Economics</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Applied_economics" title="Applied economics">Applied</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Microeconomics" title="Microeconomics">Microeconomics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Political_economy" title="Political economy">Political economy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mathematical_economics" title="Mathematical economics">Mathematical economics</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-below plainlist"> <ul><li><img alt="icon" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Bills_and_coins.svg/16px-Bills_and_coins.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="8" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Bills_and_coins.svg/24px-Bills_and_coins.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Bills_and_coins.svg/32px-Bills_and_coins.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="960" data-file-height="465" /> <a href="/wiki/Portal:Money" title="Portal:Money">Money portal</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/File:Emblem-money.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="icon" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/Emblem-money.svg/16px-Emblem-money.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="16" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/Emblem-money.svg/24px-Emblem-money.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/Emblem-money.svg/32px-Emblem-money.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="48" data-file-height="48" /></a> <a href="/wiki/Portal:Business" title="Portal:Business">Business portal</a></li></ul></td></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-navbar"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239400231">.mw-parser-output .navbar{display:inline;font-size:88%;font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .navbar-collapse{float:left;text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .navbar-boxtext{word-spacing:0}.mw-parser-output .navbar ul{display:inline-block;white-space:nowrap;line-height:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-brackets::before{margin-right:-0.125em;content:"[ "}.mw-parser-output .navbar-brackets::after{margin-left:-0.125em;content:" ]"}.mw-parser-output .navbar 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title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Template:Macroeconomics_sidebar" title="Special:EditPage/Template:Macroeconomics sidebar"><abbr title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div></td></tr></tbody></table> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1126788409"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1246091330"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><table class="sidebar nomobile nowraplinks plainlist"><tbody><tr><td class="sidebar-pretitle">Part of <a href="/wiki/Category:Economic_history" title="Category:Economic history">a series</a> on</td></tr><tr><th class="sidebar-title-with-pretitle" style="font-size:180%;font-weight:bold;"><a href="/wiki/Economic_history" title="Economic history">Economic history</a></th></tr><tr><th class="sidebar-heading" style="background:#ddddff;"> Particular histories of</th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/History_of_advertising" title="History of advertising">Advertising</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Business_history" title="Business history">Business</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/History_of_capitalism" title="History of capitalism">Capitalism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Labor_history" title="Labor history">Labor</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/History_of_money" title="History of money">Money</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/History_of_retail" title="History of retail">Retail</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/History_of_social_democracy" title="History of social democracy">Social democracy</a></li></ul> </div></td> </tr><tr><th class="sidebar-heading" style="background:#ddddff;"> Economics events</th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="hlist"> <ul><li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Recession</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_miracle" title="Economic miracle">Economic miracle</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Financial_crisis" title="Financial crisis">Financial crisis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shock_(economics)" title="Shock (economics)">Shock</a></li></ul> </div></td> </tr><tr><th class="sidebar-heading" style="background:#ddddff;"> Prominent examples</th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Economic_antisemitism" title="Economic antisemitism">Economic antisemitism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_history_of_the_Arab_world" title="Economic history of the Arab world">Economic history of the Arab world</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economy_of_the_Inca_Empire" title="Economy of the Inca Empire">Economy of the Inca Empire</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Industrialization_in_the_Soviet_Union" title="Industrialization in the Soviet Union">Industrialization in the Soviet Union</a></li></ul> </div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-navbar"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1239400231"><div class="navbar plainlinks hlist navbar-mini"><ul><li class="nv-view"><a href="/wiki/Template:Economic_history_sidebar" title="Template:Economic history sidebar"><abbr title="View this template">v</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Template_talk:Economic_history_sidebar&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Template talk:Economic history sidebar (page does not exist)"><abbr title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Template:Economic_history_sidebar" title="Special:EditPage/Template:Economic history sidebar"><abbr title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div></td></tr></tbody></table> In <a href="/wiki/Economics" title="Economics">economics</a>, a recession is a <a href="/wiki/Business_cycle" title="Business cycle">business cycle</a> contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity.<a href="#cite_note-1">[1]</a><a href="#cite_note-2">[2]</a> Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse <a href="/wiki/Demand_shock" title="Demand shock">demand shock</a>). This may be triggered by various events, such as a <a href="/wiki/Financial_crisis" title="Financial crisis">financial crisis</a>, an external trade shock, an adverse <a href="/wiki/Supply_shock" title="Supply shock">supply shock</a>, the bursting of an <a href="/wiki/Economic_bubble" title="Economic bubble">economic bubble</a>, or a large-scale <a href="/wiki/Anthropogenic_hazard" class="mw-redirect" title="Anthropogenic hazard">anthropogenic</a> or <a href="/wiki/Natural_disaster" title="Natural disaster">natural disaster</a> (e.g. a <a href="/wiki/Pandemic" title="Pandemic">pandemic</a>). But there is no official definition of a recession, according to the <a href="/wiki/International_Monetary_Fund" title="International Monetary Fund">IMF</a>.<a href="#cite_note-3">[3]</a> In the <a href="/wiki/United_States" title="United States">United States</a>, a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real <a href="/wiki/GDP" class="mw-redirect" title="GDP">GDP</a>, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."<a href="#cite_note-4">[4]</a> The <a href="/wiki/European_Union" title="European Union">European Union</a> has adopted a similar definition.<a href="#cite_note-:0-5">[5]</a><a href="#cite_note-:1-6">[6]</a> In the <a href="/wiki/United_Kingdom" title="United Kingdom">United Kingdom</a> and <a href="/wiki/Canada" title="Canada">Canada</a>, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.<a href="#cite_note-11">[11]</a> Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary <a href="/wiki/Macroeconomic_policies" class="mw-redirect" title="Macroeconomic policies">macroeconomic policies</a>, such as <a href="/wiki/Monetary_policy" title="Monetary policy">increasing money supply and decreasing interest rates</a> or <a href="/wiki/Fiscal_policy" title="Fiscal policy">increasing government spending and decreasing taxation</a>. <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Definitions">Definitions</h2></div> In a 1974 article by <a href="/wiki/The_New_York_Times" title="The New York Times">The New York Times</a>, Commissioner of the <a href="/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics" title="Bureau of Labor Statistics">Bureau of Labor Statistics</a> <a href="/wiki/Julius_Shiskin" title="Julius Shiskin">Julius Shiskin</a> suggested that a rough translation of the bureau's qualitative definition of a recession into a quantitative one that almost anyone can use might run like this: <ul><li>In terms of duration – <a href="/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_per_capita_growth" title="List of countries by GNI per capita growth">Declines in real gross national income (GNI)</a> for two consecutive quarters; a decline in industrial production over a six-month period.</li> <li>In terms of depth – A 1.5% decline in real <a href="/wiki/Gross_national_income" title="Gross national income">gross national income</a> ; a 15% decline in non-agricultural employment; a two-point rise in unemployment to a level of at least 6%.</li> <li>In terms of financial indicators - A significant increase in loan defaults or a tightening of credit conditions by financial institutions, leading to a decrease in business investment and consumer spending.</li> <li>In terms of diffusion – A decline in non-agricultural employment in more than 75% of industries, as measured over six-month spans, for six months or longer.<a href="#cite_note-12">[12]</a><a href="#cite_note-13">[13]</a><a href="#cite_note-14">[14]</a></li></ul> Over the years, some commentators dropped most of Shiskin's "recession-spotting" criteria for the simplistic rule-of-thumb of a decline in real GNI for two consecutive quarters.<a href="#cite_note-15">[15]</a> In the <a href="/wiki/United_States" title="United States">United States</a>, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the <a href="/wiki/National_Bureau_of_Economic_Research" title="National Bureau of Economic Research">National Bureau of Economic Research</a> (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER, a private economic research organization, defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in <a href="/wiki/Real_GDP" class="mw-redirect" title="Real GDP">real GDP</a>, <a href="/wiki/Real_income" title="Real income">real income</a>, employment, <a href="/wiki/Industrial_production" title="Industrial production">industrial production</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Wholesale" class="mw-redirect" title="Wholesale">wholesale</a>-<a href="/wiki/Retail_sales" class="mw-redirect" title="Retail sales">retail sales</a>".<a href="#cite_note-nber.org-16">[16]</a> The NBER also explains that: "a recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its through."<a href="#cite_note-17">[17]</a> The NBER is considered the official arbiter of recession start and end dates for the United States.<a href="#cite_note-18">[18]</a><a href="#cite_note-19">[19]</a><a href="#cite_note-20">[20]</a> The <a href="/wiki/Bureau_of_Economic_Analysis" title="Bureau of Economic Analysis">Bureau of Economic Analysis</a>, an independent federal agency that provides official macroeconomic and industry statistics,<a href="#cite_note-LoeLewis2022-21">[21]</a> says "the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation" and that instead, "The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research".<a href="#cite_note-BEA2022-22">[22]</a> The European Union, akin to the NBER's methodology, has embraced a definition of recession that integrates GDP alongside a spectrum of macroeconomic indicators, including employment and various other metrics. This approach allows for a comprehensive assessment of the depth and breadth of economic downturns, enabling policymakers to devise more effective strategies for economic stabilization and recovery. <a href="/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom" title="List of recessions in the United Kingdom">Recessions in the United Kingdom</a> are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonal adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for <a href="/wiki/Real_GDP" class="mw-redirect" title="Real GDP">real GDP</a>.<a href="#cite_note-BBC-7">[7]</a><a href="#cite_note-UKTreasury-8">[8]</a> The <a href="/wiki/Organisation_for_Economic_Co-operation_and_Development" class="mw-redirect" title="Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development">Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development</a> (OECD) defines a recession as a period of at least two years during which the cumulative <a href="/wiki/Output_gap" title="Output gap">output gap</a> reaches at least 2% of GDP, and the output gap is at least 1% for at least one year.<a href="#cite_note-23">[23]</a> Recession can be defined as <a href="/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_per_capita_growth" title="List of countries by real GDP per capita growth">decline of GDP per capita</a> instead of decline of total GDP.<a href="#cite_note-24">[24]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Attributes">Attributes</h2></div> A recession encompasses multiple attributes that often occur simultaneously and encompasses declines in component measures of economic activity, such as GDP, including consumption, investment, government spending, and net export activity. These summary measures are indicative of underlying drivers such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate investment decisions, interest rates, demographics, and government policies (Smith, 2018; Johnson & Thompson, 2020). By examining these factors comprehensively, economists gain insights into the complex dynamics that contribute to economic downturns and can formulate effective strategies for mitigating their impact (Anderson, 2019; Patel, 2017). Economist <a href="/wiki/Richard_Koo" title="Richard Koo">Richard C. Koo</a> wrote that under ideal conditions, a country's economy should have the household sector as net savers and the <a href="/wiki/Corporate_sector" class="mw-redirect" title="Corporate sector">corporate sector</a> as net borrowers, with the government budget nearly balanced and <a href="/wiki/Net_exports" class="mw-redirect" title="Net exports">net exports</a> near zero.<a href="#cite_note-Koo_2009-25">[25]</a><a href="#cite_note-Koo2011-26">[26]</a> A severe (GDP down by 10%) or prolonged (three or four years) recession is referred to as an <a href="/wiki/Depression_(economics)" class="mw-redirect" title="Depression (economics)">economic depression</a>, although some argue that their causes and cures can be different.<a href="#cite_note-Eslake-27">[27]</a> As an informal shorthand, economists sometimes refer to different <a href="/wiki/Recession_shapes" title="Recession shapes">recession shapes</a>, such as <a href="/wiki/V-shaped_recession" class="mw-redirect" title="V-shaped recession">V-shaped</a>, <a href="/wiki/U-shaped_recession" class="mw-redirect" title="U-shaped recession">U-shaped</a>, <a href="/wiki/L-shaped_recession" class="mw-redirect" title="L-shaped recession">L-shaped</a> and <a href="/wiki/W-shaped_recession" class="mw-redirect" title="W-shaped recession">W-shaped</a> recessions.<a href="#cite_note-KaurSidhu2012-28">[28]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Type_of_recession_or_shape">Type of recession or shape</h3></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Recession_shapes" title="Recession shapes">Recession shapes</a></div> The type and shape of recessions are distinctive. In the US, v-shaped, or short-and-sharp contractions followed by rapid and sustained recovery, occurred in 1954 and 1990–1991; U-shaped (prolonged slump) in 1974–1975, and W-shaped, or <a href="/wiki/Double-dip_recession" class="mw-redirect" title="Double-dip recession">double-dip recessions</a> in 1949 and 1980–1982. Japan's 1993–1994 recession was U-shaped and its 8-out-of-9 quarters of contraction in 1997–1999 can be described as L-shaped. <a href="/wiki/Korea" title="Korea">Korea</a>, <a href="/wiki/Hong_Kong" title="Hong Kong">Hong Kong</a> and South-east Asia experienced U-shaped recessions in 1997–1998, although <a href="/wiki/Thailand" title="Thailand">Thailand</a>'s eight consecutive quarters of decline should be termed L-shaped.<a href="#cite_note-29">[29]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Psychological_aspects">Psychological aspects</h3></div> Recessions have psychological and confidence aspects. For example, if companies expect economic activity to slow, they may reduce employment levels and save <a href="/wiki/Money" title="Money">money</a> rather than invest. Such expectations can create a self-reinforcing downward cycle, bringing about or worsening a recession.<a href="#cite_note-30">[30]</a> Consumer confidence is one measure used to evaluate economic sentiment.<a href="#cite_note-31">[31]</a> The term <a href="/wiki/Animal_spirits_(Keynes)" title="Animal spirits (Keynes)">animal spirits</a> has been used to describe the <a href="/wiki/Psychological" class="mw-redirect" title="Psychological">psychological</a> factors underlying economic activity. Keynes, in his <a href="/wiki/The_General_Theory_of_Employment,_Interest_and_Money" title="The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money">The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money</a>, was the first economist to claim that such emotional mindsets significantly affect the economy.<a href="#cite_note-AkerlofShiller2010-32">[32]</a> Economist <a href="/wiki/Robert_J._Shiller" title="Robert J. Shiller">Robert J. Shiller</a> wrote that the term "refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith. When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or hire people."<a href="#cite_note-33">[33]</a> Behavioral economics has also explained many psychological biases that may trigger a recession including the <a href="/wiki/Availability_heuristic" title="Availability heuristic">availability heuristic</a>, the <a href="/wiki/Money_illusion" title="Money illusion">money illusion</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Normalcy_bias" title="Normalcy bias">normalcy bias</a>.<a href="#cite_note-34">[34]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Balance_sheet_recession">Balance sheet recession</h3></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Balance_sheet_recession" title="Balance sheet recession">Balance sheet recession</a></div> Excessive levels of indebtedness or the bursting of a real estate or financial asset price bubble can cause what is called a "balance sheet recession". This occurs when large numbers of consumers or corporations pay down debt (i.e., save) rather than spend or invest, which slows the economy.<a href="#cite_note-Koo2011-26">[26]</a> The term <a href="/wiki/Balance_sheet" title="Balance sheet">balance sheet</a> derives from an accounting identity that holds that assets must always equal the sum of liabilities plus equity.<a href="#cite_note-Jupe2014-35">[35]</a> If asset prices fall below the value of the debt incurred to purchase them, then the equity must be negative, meaning the consumer or corporation is insolvent. Economist <a href="/wiki/Paul_Krugman" title="Paul Krugman">Paul Krugman</a> wrote in 2014 that "the best working hypothesis seems to be that the <a href="/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis" title="Subprime mortgage crisis">financial crisis</a> was only one manifestation of a broader problem of excessive debt—that it was a so-called "balance sheet recession". In Krugman's view, such crises require debt reduction strategies combined with higher government spending to offset declines from the <a href="/wiki/Private_sector" title="Private sector">private sector</a> as it pays down its debt.<a href="#cite_note-36">[36]</a> For example, economist Richard Koo wrote that Japan's "Great Recession" that began in 1990 was a "balance sheet recession". It was triggered by a collapse in land and stock prices, which caused Japanese firms to have <a href="/wiki/Negative_equity" title="Negative equity">negative equity</a>, meaning their assets were worth less than their liabilities. Despite zero <a href="/wiki/Interest_rate" title="Interest rate">interest rates</a> and expansion of the <a href="/wiki/Money_supply" title="Money supply">money supply</a> to encourage borrowing, Japanese corporations in aggregate opted to pay down their debts from their own business earnings rather than borrow to invest as firms typically do. Corporate investment, a key demand component of GDP, fell enormously (22% of GDP) between 1990 and its peak decline in 2003. Japanese firms overall became net savers after 1998, as opposed to borrowers. Koo argues that it was massive fiscal stimulus (borrowing and spending by the government) that offset this decline and enabled Japan to maintain its level of GDP. In his view, this avoided a U.S. type <a href="/wiki/Great_Depression" title="Great Depression">Great Depression</a>, in which U.S. GDP fell by 46%. He argued that monetary policy was ineffective because there was limited demand for funds while firms paid down their liabilities. In a balance sheet recession, GDP declines by the amount of debt repayment and un-borrowed individual savings, leaving government stimulus spending as the primary remedy.<a href="#cite_note-Koo_2009-25">[25]</a><a href="#cite_note-Koo2011-26">[26]</a><a href="#cite_note-37">[37]</a> Krugman discussed the balance sheet recession concept in 2010, agreeing with Koo's situation assessment and view that sustained <a href="/wiki/Deficit_spending" title="Deficit spending">deficit spending</a> when faced with a balance sheet recession would be appropriate. However, Krugman argued that monetary policy could also affect savings behavior, as inflation or credible promises of future inflation (generating negative real interest rates) would encourage less savings. In other words, people would tend to spend more rather than save if they believe inflation is on the horizon. In more technical terms, Krugman argues that the private sector savings curve is elastic even during a balance sheet recession (responsive to changes in real interest rates), disagreeing with Koo's view that it is inelastic (non-responsive to changes in real interest rates).<a href="#cite_note-38">[38]</a><a href="#cite_note-39">[39]</a> A July 2012 survey of balance sheet recession research reported that consumer demand and employment are affected by household leverage levels. Both durable and non-durable goods consumption declined as households moved from low to high leverage with the decline in property values experienced during the subprime mortgage crisis. Further, reduced consumption due to higher household leverage can account for a significant decline in employment levels. Policies that help reduce mortgage debt or household leverage could therefore have stimulative effects (Smith & Johnson, 2012). <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Liquidity_trap">Liquidity trap</h3></div> A <a href="/wiki/Liquidity_trap" title="Liquidity trap">liquidity trap</a> is a <a href="/wiki/Keynesian" class="mw-redirect" title="Keynesian">Keynesian</a> theory that a situation can develop in which interest rates reach near zero (<a href="/wiki/Zero_interest-rate_policy" title="Zero interest-rate policy">zero interest-rate policy</a>) yet do not effectively stimulate the economy.<a href="#cite_note-Eggertsson2018-40">[40]</a> In theory, near-zero interest rates should encourage firms and consumers to borrow and spend. However, if too many individuals or corporations focus on saving or paying down debt rather than spending, lower interest rates have less effect on investment and consumption behavior; increasing the money supply is like "<a href="/wiki/Pushing_on_a_string" title="Pushing on a string">pushing on a string</a>".<a href="#cite_note-CorreiaFarhi_2012-41">[41]</a> Economist <a href="/wiki/Paul_Krugman" title="Paul Krugman">Paul Krugman</a> described the <a href="/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis" title="Subprime mortgage crisis">U.S. 2009 recession</a> and <a href="/wiki/Lost_decade_(Japan)" class="mw-redirect" title="Lost decade (Japan)">Japan's lost decade</a> as liquidity traps. One remedy to a liquidity trap is expanding the money supply via <a href="/wiki/Quantitative_easing" title="Quantitative easing">quantitative easing</a> or other techniques in which money is effectively printed to purchase assets, thereby creating <a href="/wiki/Inflationary" class="mw-redirect" title="Inflationary">inflationary</a> expectations that cause savers to begin spending again. Government stimulus spending and <a href="/wiki/Mercantilism" title="Mercantilism">mercantilist</a> policies to stimulate exports and reduce imports are other techniques to stimulate demand.<a href="#cite_note-Krugman_2009-42">[42]</a> He estimated in March 2010 that developed countries representing 70% of the world's GDP were caught in a liquidity trap.<a href="#cite_note-43">[43]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Paradoxes_of_thrift_and_deleveraging">Paradoxes of thrift and deleveraging</h3></div> Behavior that may be optimal for an individual (e.g., saving more during adverse economic conditions) can be detrimental if too many individuals pursue the same behavior, as ultimately, one person's consumption is another person's income. Too many consumers attempting to save (or pay down debt) simultaneously is called the <a href="/wiki/Paradox_of_thrift" title="Paradox of thrift">paradox of thrift</a><a href="#cite_note-LipseyHarbury1992-44">[44]</a> and can cause or deepen a recession. Economist <a href="/wiki/Hyman_Minsky" title="Hyman Minsky">Hyman Minsky</a> also described a "paradox of deleveraging" as financial institutions that have too much leverage (debt relative to equity) cannot all de-leverage simultaneously without significant declines in the value of their assets.<a href="#cite_note-Yellen_on_Minsky-45">[45]</a> In April 2009, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair <a href="/wiki/Janet_Yellen" title="Janet Yellen">Janet Yellen</a> discussed these paradoxes: "Once this <a href="/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis" title="Subprime mortgage crisis">massive credit crunch</a> hit, it didn't take long before we were in a recession. The recession, in turn, deepened the credit crunch as demand and employment fell, and credit losses of financial institutions surged. Indeed, we have been in the grips of precisely this adverse <a href="/wiki/Feedback" title="Feedback">feedback</a> loop for more than a year. A process of balance sheet deleveraging has spread to nearly every corner of the economy. Consumers are pulling back on purchases, especially durable goods, to build their savings. Businesses are cancelling planned investments and laying off workers to preserve cash. And financial institutions are shrinking assets to bolster capital and improve their chances of weathering the current storm. Once again, Minsky understood this dynamic. He spoke of the paradox of deleveraging, in which precautions that may be smart for individuals and firms—and indeed essential to return the economy to a normal state—nevertheless magnify the distress of the economy as a whole."<a href="#cite_note-Yellen_on_Minsky-45">[45]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Causes_of_recessions">Causes of recessions</h2></div> There are many reasons why recessions happen. One overall reason can be lack of demand due to sharp developments in the prices of the inputs used in producing goods and services. Another main reason can be problems e.g. in financial markets. Because recessions have many likely explanations, it is demanding to predict them. Some variables might at first glance be the causes of recessions, but they could also be the results of a recession, which means they are endogenous to recessions.<a href="#cite_note-46">[46]</a> One can summarize the causes of recessions in the following categories: Economic factors: <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Supply_shock" title="Supply shock">Supply shocks</a>: A sudden increase in the prices of key inputs (input price shock) can lead to higher production costs and reduced aggregate demand, triggering a recession.<a href="#cite_note-47">[47]</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fiscal_policy" title="Fiscal policy">Fiscal policies</a> or monetary policies by the government, which are contractionary in nature: A contractionary policy is a tool usually used to tame rising inflation. Excessive use of tightening policies, e.g. too rapid increases in interest rates, can reduce demand and consumer spending for goods and services, leading to a recession (creating a so called <a href="/wiki/Hard_landing_(economics)" title="Hard landing (economics)">hard landing</a>).<a href="#cite_note-48">[48]</a> Monetary policy changes can influence both the frequency and intensity of recessions.</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Demand_shock" title="Demand shock">Demand shocks</a>: A widespread drop in spending, known as an adverse demand shock, can lead to recessions. This can be triggered by various events, including the bursting of economic bubbles (see economic bubbles below).</li></ul> Financial factors: <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Credit_risk" title="Credit risk">Credit risk</a> and credit and debt issues: Overextension of credit and accumulation of risky debt can lead to financial crises. When borrowers (e.g. corporations) default, it can cause a cascade of business failures and reduced consumption).<a href="#cite_note-49">[49]</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Financial_risk" title="Financial risk">Financial risk</a> factors that can cause a recession are plentiful: Besides credit risk like e.g. <a href="/wiki/Concentration_risk" title="Concentration risk">concentration risk</a>, there is also <a href="/wiki/Market_risk" title="Market risk">market risk</a> like e.g. <a href="/wiki/Systemic_risk" title="Systemic risk">systemic risk</a>, <a href="/wiki/Liquidity_risk" title="Liquidity risk">liquidity risk</a> like e.g. <a href="/wiki/Refinancing_risk" title="Refinancing risk">refinancing risk</a>, <a href="/wiki/Investment_risk" class="mw-redirect" title="Investment risk">investment risk</a> like e.g. <a href="/wiki/Model_risk" title="Model risk">model risk</a>, <a href="/wiki/Business_risks" title="Business risks">business risk</a> like e.g. <a href="/wiki/Political_risk" title="Political risk">political risk</a> as well as <a href="/wiki/Profit_risk" title="Profit risk">profit risk</a>.</li> <li>Financial market problems: Issues in financial markets, such as rapid credit expansion. When households accumulate excessive debt and later face difficulties in meeting their obligations, they cut back on consumption, leading to a decrease in economic activity.</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Credit_crunch" title="Credit crunch">Credit tightening</a>: Restrictions on credit availability also known as credit crunch, can reduce consumer spending and business investment, leading to a slowdown in economic activity.</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Interest_rate" title="Interest rate">Interest rate distortions</a>: Artificially low interest rates can encourage excessive borrowing and result in a buildup of risk in the financial sector. When interest rates rise, these investments (like new constructions in real estate) may fail, exacerbate economic declines, contributing to a recession.</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_bubble" title="Economic bubble">Economic bubble</a>: Unsustainable rapid increases in asset prices due to excessive risk-taking, characterized by exaggerated optimism during the <a href="/wiki/Economic_boom" class="mw-redirect" title="Economic boom">economic boom</a> period and accumulation of financial risks during good economic times creates a asset bubble, followed by continued sharp declines in asset prices, a (<a href="/wiki/Stock_market_crash" title="Stock market crash">stock market crash</a>), which can lead to a cascade of business failures, significant recessions and worst case depressions and stagnation.</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Minsky_Moment" class="mw-redirect" title="Minsky Moment">Minsky Moment</a>: Euphoria and speculative borrowing as well as unsustainable financial practices eventually result in economic downturns. A Minsky Moment marks the point at which <a href="/wiki/Leverage_(finance)" title="Leverage (finance)">overleveraged</a> investors are forced to sell off assets to cover their debts, leading to a rapid decline in asset prices and <a href="/wiki/Liquidity_risk" title="Liquidity risk">liquidity</a>. This term is named after the American economist <a href="/wiki/Hyman_Minsky" title="Hyman Minsky">Hyman Minsky</a>, who theorized that financial markets are inherently unstable.</li></ul> External shocks <ul><li>Adverse events: Unexpected major world events like <a href="/wiki/Natural_disaster" title="Natural disaster">natural disasters</a> and geopolitical events like <a href="/wiki/War" title="War">wars</a> can cause widespread disruptions in critical sectors in supply chains and disrupt economic activity, reduce productivity, increase costs, affect confidence and thereby diminish economic activity, leading to decreased spending and investment and finally recessions.</li> <li>Decline in external demand: For countries with strong <a href="/wiki/Export" title="Export">export</a> sectors, a decline in demand from major <a href="/wiki/International_trade" title="International trade">trading partners</a> can trigger a recession.<a href="#cite_note-50">[50]</a></li> <li>Global spillover effects: Recessions in one part of the world can have spillover effects on other economies due to global interconnectedness. For example, economic troubles in Europe can impact the U.S. economy.<a href="#cite_note-51">[51]</a></li></ul> Summary: Why recessions happen is a complex phenomena often resulting from a interplay of various factors. While these factors can individually contribute to a recession, the cumulative impact of several occurring simultaneously can significantly amplify the negative effect on the economy. <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Predictors">Predictors</h2></div> Recessions are very challenging to predict. While some variables like the <a href="/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve" title="Inverted yield curve">(inverted) yield curve</a> appear to be more useful to predict a recession ahead of time than other variables, no single variable has proven to be an always reliable predictor whether recessions will actually (soon) appear, let alone predicting their sharpness and severity in terms of duration.<a href="#cite_note-52">[52]</a> The longest and deepest Treasury yield curve inversion in history began in July 2022, as the Federal Reserve sharply increased the <a href="/wiki/Fed_funds_rate" class="mw-redirect" title="Fed funds rate">fed funds rate</a> to combat the <a href="/wiki/2021%E2%80%932023_inflation_surge" title="2021–2023 inflation surge">2021–2023 inflation surge</a>. Despite widespread predictions by economists and market analysts of an imminent recession, none had materialized by July 2024, economic growth remained steady, and a Reuters survey of economists that month found they expected the economy to continue growing for the next two years. An earlier survey of bond market strategists found a majority no longer believed an inverted curve to be a reliable recession predictor. The curve began re-steepening toward positive territory in June 2024, as it had at other points during that inversion; in every previous inversion they examined; <a href="/wiki/Deutsche_Bank" title="Deutsche Bank">Deutsche Bank</a> analysts found the curve had re-steepened before a recession began.<a href="#cite_note-53">[53]</a><a href="#cite_note-54">[54]</a><a href="#cite_note-55">[55]</a> The following variables and indicators are used by economists, like e.g. <a href="/wiki/Paul_Krugman" title="Paul Krugman">Paul Krugman</a> or <a href="/wiki/Joseph_Stiglitz" title="Joseph Stiglitz">Joseph Stiglitz</a>, to try to predict the possibility of a recession: <ul><li>The U.S. Conference Board's Present Situation Index year-over-year change turns negative by more than 15 points before a recession.<a href="#cite_note-56">[56]</a><a href="#cite_note-57">[57]</a><a href="#cite_note-58">[58]</a></li> <li>The U.S. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator year-over-year change turns negative before a recession.<a href="#cite_note-59">[59]</a><a href="#cite_note-60">[60]</a></li> <li>When the CFNAI Diffusion Index drops below the value of −0.35, then there is an increased probability of the beginning a recession. Usually, the signal happens in the three months of the recession. The CFNAI Diffusion Index signal tends to happen about one month before a related signal by the CFNAI-MA3 (3-month moving average) drops below the −0.7 level. The CFNAI-MA3 correctly identified the 7 recessions between March 1967 – August 2019, while triggering only 2 false alarms.<a href="#cite_note-61">[61]</a></li></ul> Except for the above, there are no known completely reliable predictors.[<a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed">citation needed</a>] Analysis by <a href="/wiki/Prakash_Loungani" title="Prakash Loungani">Prakash Loungani</a> of the <a href="/wiki/International_Monetary_Fund" title="International Monetary Fund">International Monetary Fund</a> found that only two of the sixty recessions around the world during the 1990s had been predicted by a consensus of economists one year earlier, while there were zero consensus predictions one year earlier for the 49 recessions during 2009.<a href="#cite_note-62">[62]</a> However, the following are considered possible predictors:<a href="#cite_note-63">[63]</a><a href="#cite_note-64">[64]</a><a href="#cite_note-65">[65]</a> Manufacturing: <ul><li>Average weekly hours in manufacturing.<a href="#cite_note-66">[66]</a> Firms tend to react to worsening business cycle circumstances by lowering hours worked before laying off workers, according to Glosser and Golden (1997).<a href="#cite_note-67">[67]</a> This popular indicator leads industrial production by two to four months.<a href="#cite_note-68">[68]</a></li> <li>Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.<a href="#cite_note-69">[69]</a></li> <li>Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders.<a href="#cite_note-70">[70]</a></li> <li>Manufacturing sales.</li> <li>A decline in manufacturing activities and new orders for consumer and capital goods can signal reduced business investment and economic slowdown.</li></ul> Industrial Production: <ul><li>Factory output, including factories, mines, and utilities.</li> <li>Low industrial output and sales: During economic downturns, companies reduce production to minimize risk. This leads to lower industrial output and sales, which can signal an impending recession, because it causes a <a href="/wiki/Ripple_effect" title="Ripple effect">ripple effect</a>. As fewer goods are produced, lesser resources like labor, equipment and raw materials are required. As industrial output falls this sooner or later leads to a cutback in hiring as well as a surge in layoffs.</li></ul> Chemical Activity: <ul><li>Basic industrial chemicals like chlorine, alkalies, pigments and plastic resins are positioned early in the supply chain. This early position allows to identify emerging turning points in the economy.</li> <li>Chemical activity also includes data on hours worked in chemicals, chemical company stock data, publicly sourced chemical price information, end-use chemical industry sales-to-inventories.</li> <li>Indicators of chemical activity provide a longer lead time compared to other economic indicators. Tracking chemical activity as an index can lead by two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks and four months at cycle troughs, according to the American Chemistry Council (ACC).</li></ul> Transportation: <ul><li>Declining <a href="/wiki/Trucking" class="mw-redirect" title="Trucking">trucking</a> and <a href="/wiki/Shipping" class="mw-redirect" title="Shipping">shipping</a> volumes of goods.<a href="#cite_note-71">[71]</a><a href="#cite_note-72">[72]</a></li> <li>The <a href="/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index" title="Baltic Dry Index">Baltic Dry Index (BDI)</a>, a shipping freight-cost index which reflects the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers, is generally seen as a leading indicator of economic activity, because changes in the index reflect global supply and demand for commodities and raw materials used in manufacturing. A falling BDI can signal a slowdown in economic activity.</li> <li>The <a href="/wiki/Dow_Jones_Transportation_Average" title="Dow Jones Transportation Average">Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA)</a> contains railroads, shipping companies, air freight carriers, marine transportation, delivery services, and logistics companies. The performance of transportation stocks can predict trends in the broader market, according to the <a href="/wiki/Dow_theory" title="Dow theory">Dow Theory</a>, which says that a divergence between the DJTA and the <a href="/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average" title="Dow Jones Industrial Average">Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)</a> can signal potential early economic weakness if transportation stocks are underperforming while industrial stocks are rising.</li> <li>Both indices (BDI and DJTA) serve as barometers for economic health and are considered to be leading economic indicators but from different perspectives. The BDI focuses on global trade and commodity demand, while the DJTA reflects domestic transportation activity in the U.S.</li> <li>There are various trucking indices, most notably the Cass Freight Index, which measures monthly freight activity across all domestic freight modes in North America. Other trucking indices are the FreightWaves National Truckload Index (NTI), the FTR Trucking Conditions Index (TCI), the ACT For-Hire Trucking Index, the American Trucking Associations' Truck Tonnage Index, the DAT Trendlines index and the <a href="/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics" title="Bureau of Labor Statistics">U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics</a> Producer Price Index (PPI) by Industry: General Freight Trucking Index. These indices are essential for understanding the dynamics of the trucking industry and predicting future market conditions.</li> <li>According to research by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a leading indicator of economic cycles. It tracks the movement of freight and passengers to provide insights into the broader economic conditions. Both TSI index components lead the business cycles since 1979 by an average of approximately four months.<a href="#cite_note-73">[73]</a></li></ul> Corporate Profits: <ul><li>Business sector profits. Declining corporate earnings over successive quarters can signal economic trouble and the risk of a potential bear market.<a href="#cite_note-74">[74]</a></li></ul> Employment: <ul><li>Decreasing job growth.</li> <li>Decreasing payroll employment.</li> <li>Growing unemployment rate as measured by the initial claims for unemployment insurance (indicated by a constant enduring year-over-year increase in the three-week average of unemployment insurance initial claims<a href="#cite_note-75">[75]</a>), which are reported by the <a href="/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics" title="Bureau of Labor Statistics">U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics</a>:<a href="#cite_note-76">[76]</a> A enlarging unemployment rate with rising initial claims for unemployment insurance indicate weakening labor market conditions, which can be a precursor to a recession. This indicator leads industrial production by two to three months.<a href="#cite_note-77">[77]</a> Also see <a href="/wiki/Sahm_rule" title="Sahm rule">Sahm rule</a> indicator below in the overview of recession indicators, which tracks the momentum in the U3 unemployment rate.</li> <li>Growing labor market weakness as indicated by a negative three-month average of U.S. nonfarm payrolls.<a href="#cite_note-78">[78]</a></li> <li>Jobs market contraction: The 'Perkins rule', created by GlobalData TS Lombard managing director Dario Perkins, triggers when payrolls are declining. Commonly when the Sahm rule produces a recession warning signal the Perkins rule has already triggered.<a href="#cite_note-79">[79]</a> Another jobs market indicator measuring a rise in unemployment is the 'Kantro rule'. This recession indicator isn't influenced by participation rates and has an equally impressive track record as the Sahm rule going back to the early 1970s. Kantro's 10% recession rule, created by Michael Kantrowitz, CIO of Piper Sandler, measures the year-over-year growth in unemployed persons in the U.S. workforce. When the three-month moving average of this indicator grows beyond the 10% threshold at least in the past 11 occurrences the economy has already been in recession.<a href="#cite_note-80">[80]</a><a href="#cite_note-81">[81]</a></li></ul> Personal Income: <ul><li>Decline in <a href="/wiki/Wage" title="Wage">wages</a>.</li> <li>Decline in <a href="/wiki/Personal_income" title="Personal income">personal income</a> less transfer payments. Real median household income is reported by the <a href="/wiki/Bureau_of_Economic_Analysis" title="Bureau of Economic Analysis">U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)</a>.</li> <li>Increased <a href="/wiki/Income_inequality" class="mw-redirect" title="Income inequality">income inequality</a>.<a href="#cite_note-82">[82]</a><a href="#cite_note-83">[83]</a></li></ul> Retail: <ul><li>Decline in wholesale/retail sales, which are reported by the <a href="/wiki/United_States_Census_Bureau" title="United States Census Bureau">U.S. Census Bureau</a>.</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Consumer_confidence_index" title="Consumer confidence index">Consumer expectations</a>, confidence surveys like the index of consumer expectations (<a href="/wiki/University_of_Michigan_Consumer_Sentiment_Index" title="University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index">University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index</a>) and the <a href="/wiki/Consumer_confidence_index" title="Consumer confidence index">Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index</a>:<a href="#cite_note-84">[84]</a> Declines in consumer sentiment and confidence can signal a recession. These measures reflect consumers' outlook on the economy and their willingness to spend, which drives economic activity. A drop in consumer confidence often precedes reduced consumer spending.</li> <li>Declines in <a href="/wiki/Consumer_spending" title="Consumer spending">consumer spending</a> can also signal a recession. As consumers cut back on spending, businesses may respond by reducing production and laying off workers, creating a cycle that can lead to a recession.</li> <li>Decreasing <a href="/wiki/Recreational_vehicle" title="Recreational vehicle">recreational vehicle</a> shipments.<a href="#cite_note-85">[85]</a></li> <li>Weakening <a href="/wiki/Personal_consumption_expenditures_price_index" title="Personal consumption expenditures price index">personal consumption expenditure growth</a>.<a href="#cite_note-86">[86]</a></li> <li>Tumbling sales in durable consumer goods, like e.g. new car sales (light vehicles unit retail sales).<a href="#cite_note-87">[87]</a></li></ul> Housing: <ul><li>Housing starts and construction, specifically <a href="/wiki/Planning_permission" title="Planning permission">building permits</a> for new private housing units.<a href="#cite_note-88">[88]</a><a href="#cite_note-89">[89]</a></li></ul> Credit Markets: <ul><li>Rising corporate debt can foreshadow a bear market, notably when businesses go ahead with taking on more debt, despite having diminishing sales and dwindling earnings.<a href="#cite_note-90">[90]</a></li> <li>Credit conditions like credit spreads. The spread between corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries is important. If the spread between corporate and government debt increases, this could signal that private sector lending is becoming strained.<a href="#cite_note-91">[91]</a></li> <li>The long-term spread: The spread between a shorter-term rate (like the three-month Treasury yield) and 10-year U.S. bond yields. The long-term Treasury yield spread has been particularly effective at predicting recessions many months in advance, achieving an AUC (Area Under the <a href="/wiki/Receiver_operating_characteristic" title="Receiver operating characteristic">Receiver Operating Characteristic</a> curve) value of 0.89 at 14 months ahead. And it is the best predictor at a horizon of 16 to 20 months ahead, when compared to other leading indicators.<a href="#cite_note-92">[92]</a></li> <li>The near-term forward spread: This is the difference between the market expectation of the interest rate on a three-month Treasury bill six quarters in the future and the current three-month Treasury bill yield.<a href="#cite_note-93">[93]</a><a href="#cite_note-94">[94]</a></li> <li>An <a href="/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve" title="Inverted yield curve">inverted yield curve</a> can indicate that a recession may be on the horizon as it has historically often preceded economic downturns with lead times ranging from several months to over a year. Especially the disinversion, a move back into positive territory for the spread between the shorter (e.g. 3-month or 2-year) yield and the longer (e.g. 10-year) Treasury yield, has in the past, been a reliable recession signal as the curve usually disinverts (or un-inverts) nearly before the recession truly appears. Based on recent history, the last four recessions, as of Q2-2024, didn’t start until the inverted curve returned to a positive reading (steepens). Further analysis shows that "the average time to recession (...) [is] only 66 days from when the [3-month/10-year] curve disinverts."<a href="#cite_note-95">[95]</a></li> <li>The S&P 500 and BBB bond spread.<a href="#cite_note-96">[96]</a></li></ul> Business Expectations: <ul><li>Business confidence surveys and expectations for business condition.</li></ul> Margin of stock market traders: <ul><li>The value of debit balances in broker-dealers’ securities <a href="/wiki/Margin_(finance)" title="Margin (finance)">margin accounts</a>.<a href="#cite_note-97">[97]</a></li></ul> Asset Prices: <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Oil" title="Oil">Oil</a> is a critical commodity input for many industries.</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Commodity" title="Commodity">Commodity prices</a>, as measured e.g. by the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI),<a href="#cite_note-98">[98]</a> may increase before recessions, which usually hinders <a href="/wiki/Consumer_spending" title="Consumer spending">consumer spending</a> by making necessities like transportation and housing costlier. This will tend to constrict spending for non-essential goods and services. Once the recession occurs, commodity prices will usually reset to a lower level.</li> <li>A <a href="/wiki/Sector_rotation" title="Sector rotation">sector rotation</a> in the stock market, specifically strong shifts in investment from leading more volatile sectors like consumer cyclicals and consumer discretionary (as well as e.g. biotechnology) to more stable sectors such as utilities and consumer staples (as well as e.g. telecommunications) can signal increasing market uncertainty and that a recession is on the horizon.<a href="#cite_note-99">[99]</a></li> <li>Lowering of asset prices, such as homes and financial assets, or high personal and corporate debt levels.</li> <li>Significant declines in stock prices can reflect investor pessimism about future economic conditions and can be a leading indicator of a recession.</li> <li><a href="/wiki/VIX" title="VIX">Volatility Index (VIX)</a> measuring of stock market volatility. A high VIX indicates increased market stress, which can precede economic downturns.</li></ul> Gross Domestic Product: <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Gross_domestic_product" title="Gross domestic product">GDP</a> contraction: The GDP measures a country's economic output, all goods and services a country produces. GDP provides a good insight into what has already been taking place in the economy. A contraction in GDP, especially if it occurs for two consecutive quarters,<a href="#cite_note-100">[100]</a> is a strong indicator of a recession as it reflects reduced economic activity, lower consumer demand, and decreased employment.</li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_per_capita_growth" title="List of countries by real GDP per capita growth">GDP per capita contraction</a><a href="#cite_note-r327-101">[101]</a></li> <li>The Atlanta Fed offers a GDPnow model, which estimates changes in real GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents that make up GDP. GDPnow can provide a timelier gauge of the current state of the economy.<a href="#cite_note-102">[102]</a></li></ul> Unorthodox Recession Indicators: <ul><li>Sausage sales: Heightened appetites for sausages might be a harbinger of a looming economic downturn, because sausages are a cheaper protein substitute for other higher-priced meat products,<a href="#cite_note-103">[103]</a> a reaction by shoppers when times are tough experts call the “trade down.”<a href="#cite_note-104">[104]</a><a href="#cite_note-105">[105]</a></li> <li>Plunging underwear sales: During the global financial crisis, men's underwear sales dropped significantly, mirroring reduced consumer spending and causing former Federal Reserve head <a href="/wiki/Alan_Greenspan" title="Alan Greenspan">Alan Greenspan</a> to see men’s underwear as a key economic predictor.<a href="#cite_note-106">[106]</a></li></ul> Overview of recession indicators: <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Index_of_Leading_Indicators" class="mw-redirect" title="Index of Leading Indicators">Index of Leading (Economic) Indicators (LEI)</a> (includes some of the above indicators).<a href="#cite_note-107">[107]</a> The LEI's lead time is six to seven months.<a href="#cite_note-108">[108]</a> The Conference Board’s leading index is highly accurate in the near term, one to three months ahead (accomplishing an AUC value of 0.97).<a href="#cite_note-109">[109]</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/mb201105%20focus06.en.pdf">Euro Area Leading Indicator (ALI)</a>, research indicates that the ALI can lead turning points in the business cycle by approximately five to six months.</li> <li>The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas posts the <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/swe/1988/swe8801c.pdf">Texas Index of Leading Economic Indicators</a>. This index contains the real oil price, well permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, Texas stock index, help-wanted index and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing.<a href="#cite_note-110">[110]</a></li> <li>The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago posts updates of the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI).<a href="#cite_note-111">[111]</a></li> <li>The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock) (WEI).<a href="#cite_note-112">[112]</a></li> <li>The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N).<a href="#cite_note-113">[113]</a></li> <li>The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) and its nonfinancial leverage subindex can be used as leading indicators to predict a recession.<a href="#cite_note-114">[114]</a><a href="#cite_note-115">[115]</a></li> <li>The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago developed the ROC Threshold Index (ROC means receiver operating characteristic). It combines multiple leading indicators to predict recessions. It has shown better predictive ability than individual indicators up to 11 months ahead. And it also significantly outperformed other measures at leading recession forecasts with a range of six to nine months in advance.<a href="#cite_note-116">[116]</a></li> <li>The <a href="/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve" title="Inverted yield curve">inverted yield curve</a>,<a href="#cite_note-117">[117]</a><a href="#cite_note-118">[118]</a> the model developed by economist Jonathan H. Wright, uses yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the <a href="/wiki/Federal_funds_rate" title="Federal funds rate">Fed's overnight funds rate</a>.<a href="#cite_note-119">[119]</a> Another model developed by <a href="/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_New_York" title="Federal Reserve Bank of New York">Federal Reserve Bank of New York</a> economists uses only the 10-year/three-month spread.<a href="#cite_note-120">[120]</a><a href="#cite_note-Park_Simar_Zelenyuk_2019_pp._379–392-121">[121]</a><a href="#cite_note-122">[122]</a> The Estrella and Mishkin model is a well-known approach for predicting U.S. recessions. This model primarily uses the yield curve, specifically the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates, as a predictor. This method has been widely adopted and is considered robust. The model, developed by economists Arturo Estrella and <a href="/wiki/Frederic_Mishkin" title="Frederic Mishkin">Frederic Mishkin</a>, uses the difference between the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds and 3-month Treasury bills, as detailed in their research papers and working papers for the <a href="/wiki/National_Bureau_of_Economic_Research" title="National Bureau of Economic Research">National Bureau of Economic Research</a>. Their models estimate the 12-month-ahead recession probabilities using the term spread. This yield curve spread has been found to be a valuable forecasting tool, outperforming other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.<a href="#cite_note-123">[123]</a> An inversion of this yield curve has been successful in predicting past recessions, including those in 1973-75, and 1981-82. The Estrella and Mishkin model later also successfully predicted the recessions in the early 2000s, and the <a href="/wiki/Great_Recession" title="Great Recession">Great Recession</a> of 2007-2009. Moreover, a negative spread has historically preceded each U.S. recession since the 1950s, according to The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.</li> <li>The three-month change in the <a href="/wiki/Unemployment_rate_in_the_U.S." class="mw-redirect" title="Unemployment rate in the U.S.">unemployment rate</a> and initial jobless claims.<a href="#cite_note-124">[124]</a> U.S. unemployment index is defined as the difference between the 3-month average of the <a href="/wiki/Unemployment_rate_in_the_U.S." class="mw-redirect" title="Unemployment rate in the U.S.">unemployment rate</a> and the 12-month minimum of the unemployment rate.<a href="#cite_note-125">[125]</a> Unemployment momentum and acceleration with Hidden Markov model.<a href="#cite_note-126">[126]</a></li> <li>The <a href="/wiki/Sahm_rule" title="Sahm rule">Sahm Recession Indicator</a>, named after economist <a href="/wiki/Claudia_Sahm" title="Claudia Sahm">Claudia Sahm</a>, was published in October 2019 by the <a href="/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis" title="Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis">St. Louis Federal Reserve</a> bank's <a href="/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Economic_Data" title="Federal Reserve Economic Data">Federal Reserve Economic Data</a> (FRED). It is defined as: <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1244412712">.mw-parser-output .templatequote{overflow:hidden;margin:1em 0;padding:0 32px}.mw-parser-output .templatequotecite{line-height:1.5em;text-align:left;margin-top:0}@media(min-width:500px){.mw-parser-output .templatequotecite{padding-left:1.6em}}</style><blockquote class="templatequote">Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month <a href="/wiki/Moving_average" title="Moving average">moving average</a> of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.<a href="#cite_note-127">[127]</a></blockquote></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Government_responses">Government responses</h2></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Stabilization_policy" title="Stabilization policy">Stabilization policy</a></div> <a href="/wiki/Keynesian_economics" title="Keynesian economics">Keynesian economists</a> favor the use of expansionary macroeconomic policy during recessions to increase <a href="/wiki/Aggregate_demand" title="Aggregate demand">aggregate demand</a>.<a href="#cite_note-StiglitzOcampo2008-128">[128]</a><a href="#cite_note-Ahuja2019-129">[129]</a><a href="#cite_note-Thornton2018-130">[130]</a><a href="#cite_note-Mason2020-131">[131]</a> Strategies favored for moving an economy out of a recession vary depending on which economic school the policymakers follow. <a href="/wiki/Monetarism" title="Monetarism">Monetarists</a>, exemplified by economist <a href="/wiki/Milton_Friedman" title="Milton Friedman">Milton Friedman</a>, would favor the use of <a href="/wiki/Friedman%27s_k-percent_rule" title="Friedman's k-percent rule">limited</a> expansionary <a href="/wiki/Monetary_policy" title="Monetary policy">monetary policy</a>, while <a href="/wiki/Keynesian" class="mw-redirect" title="Keynesian">Keynesian</a> economists may advocate increased <a href="/wiki/Government_spending" title="Government spending">government spending</a> to spark economic growth. <a href="/wiki/Supply-side" class="mw-redirect" title="Supply-side">Supply-side</a> economists promote tax cuts to stimulate business <a href="/wiki/Capital_(economics)" title="Capital (economics)">capital</a> investment. For example, the Trump administration claimed that lower effective tax rates on new investment imposed by the <a href="/wiki/Tax_Cuts_and_Jobs_Act_of_2017" class="mw-redirect" title="Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017">Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017</a> would raise investment, thereby making workers more productive and raising output and wages. Investment patterns in the United States through 2019, however, indicated that the supply-side incentives of the TCJA had little effect on investment growth. Although investments increased after 2017, much of the increase was a response to oil prices, and investment in other sectors had negligible growth.<a href="#cite_note-GaleHaldeman2021-132">[132]</a> Monetarist economists have argued that objectives of monetary policy, i.e., controlling the money supply to influence interest rates, are best achieved by targeting the growth rate of the money supply. They maintain that money may affect output in the short term but that in the long run, expansionary monetary policy leads to inflation only. Keynesian economists have mostly adopted this analysis, modifying the theory with better integration of short and long run trends and an understanding that a change in the money supply "affects only nominal variables in the economy, such as prices and wages, and has no effect on real variables, like employment and output".<a href="#cite_note-JahanMahmudPapageorgiou2014-133">[133]</a><a href="#cite_note-JahanPapageorgiou2014-134">[134]</a> The Federal Reserve traditionally uses monetary accommodation, a policy instrument of lowering its main benchmark interest rate, to accommodate sudden supply-side shifts in the economy. When the <a href="/wiki/Federal_funds_rate" title="Federal funds rate">federal funds rate</a> reaches the boundary of an interest rate of 0%, called the <a href="/wiki/Zero_lower_bound" title="Zero lower bound">zero lower bound</a>, the government resorts to unconventional monetary policy to stimulate recovery.<a href="#cite_note-Skaperdas2017-135">[135]</a> Gauti B. Eggertsson of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, using a <a href="/wiki/New_Keynesian_economics" title="New Keynesian economics">New Keynesian</a> macroeconomic <a href="/wiki/Dynamic_stochastic_general_equilibrium" title="Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium">model</a> for policy analysis, writes that cutting taxes on labor or capital is contractionary under certain circumstances, such as those that prevailed following the economic crisis of 2008, and that temporarily increasing government spending at such times has much larger effects than under normal conditions. He says other forms of tax cuts, such as a reduction in sales taxes and investment tax credits, e.g., in the context of Japan's "Great Recession", are also very effective. Eggertsson infers from his analysis that the contractionary effects of labor and capital tax cuts, and the strong expansionary effect of government spending, are peculiar to the unusual environment created by zero interest rates. He asserts that with positive interest rates a labor tax cut is expansionary, per the established literature, but at zero interest rates, it reverses and tax cuts become contractionary. Further, while capital tax cuts are inconsequential in his model with a positive interest rate, they become strongly negative at zero, and the multiplier of government spending is then almost five times larger.<a href="#cite_note-Eggertsson2011-136">[136]</a> <a href="/wiki/Paul_Krugman" title="Paul Krugman">Paul Krugman</a> wrote in December 2010 that significant, sustained government spending was necessary because <a href="/wiki/Household_debt" title="Household debt">indebted households</a> were paying down debts and unable to carry the U.S. economy as they had previously: "The root of our current troubles lies in the debt American families ran up during the Bush-era housing bubble...highly indebted Americans not only can't spend the way they used to, they're having to pay down the debts they ran up in the bubble years. This would be fine if someone else were taking up the slack. But what's actually happening is that some people are spending much less while nobody is spending more—and this translates into a depressed economy and high unemployment. What the government should be doing in this situation is spending more while the private sector is spending less, supporting employment while those debts are paid down. And this government spending needs to be sustained..."<a href="#cite_note-137">[137]</a> <a href="/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes" title="John Maynard Keynes">John Maynard Keynes</a> believed that government institutions could stimulate aggregate demand in a crisis: <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1244412712"><blockquote class="templatequote">Keynes showed that if somehow the level of aggregate demand could be triggered, possibly by the government printing currency notes to employ people to dig holes and fill them up, the wages that would be paid out would resuscitate the economy by generating successive rounds of demand through the multiplier process.<div class="templatequotecite">— <cite>Anatomy of the Financial Crisis: Between Keynes and Schumpeter, Economic and Political Weekly<a href="#cite_note-Nayak2009-138">[138]</a></cite></div></blockquote> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Stock_market">Stock market</h2></div> Some recessions have been anticipated by stock market declines. In <a href="/wiki/Stocks_for_the_Long_Run" title="Stocks for the Long Run">Stocks for the Long Run</a>, Siegel mentions that since 1948, ten recessions were preceded by a stock market decline, by a lead time of 0 to 13 months (average 5.7 months), while ten stock market declines of greater than 10% in the <a href="/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average" title="Dow Jones Industrial Average">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> were not followed by a recession.<a href="#cite_note-139">[139]</a> The <a href="/wiki/Real_estate" title="Real estate">real estate</a> market also usually weakens before a recession.<a href="#cite_note-140">[140]</a> However, real estate declines can last much longer than recessions.<a href="#cite_note-141">[141]</a> Since the business cycle is very hard to predict, Siegel argues that it is not possible to take advantage of economic cycles for timing investments. Even the <a href="/wiki/National_Bureau_of_Economic_Research" title="National Bureau of Economic Research">National Bureau of Economic Research</a> (NBER) takes a few months to determine if a peak or trough has occurred in the US.<a href="#cite_note-142">[142]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="U.S._politics">U.S. politics</h2></div> An administration generally gets credit or blame for the state of the economy during its time in office;<a href="#cite_note-143">[143]</a> this state of affairs has caused disagreements about how particular recessions actually started.<a href="#cite_note-144">[144]</a> For example, the <a href="/wiki/Early_1980s_recession" title="Early 1980s recession">1981 recession</a> is thought to have been caused by the tight-money policy adopted by <a href="/wiki/Paul_Volcker" title="Paul Volcker">Paul Volcker</a>, chairman of the <a href="/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Board_of_Governors" title="Federal Reserve Board of Governors">Federal Reserve Board</a>, before <a href="/wiki/Ronald_Reagan" title="Ronald Reagan">Ronald Reagan</a> took office. Reagan supported that policy. Economist <a href="/wiki/Walter_Heller" title="Walter Heller">Walter Heller</a>, chairman of the <a href="/wiki/Council_of_Economic_Advisers" title="Council of Economic Advisers">Council of Economic Advisers</a> in the 1960s, said that "I call it a Reagan-Volcker-Carter recession."<a href="#cite_note-145">[145]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Consequences">Consequences</h2></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Unemployment">Unemployment</h3></div> Unemployment is particularly high during a recession. Many economists working within the <a href="/wiki/Neoclassical_economics" title="Neoclassical economics">neoclassical paradigm</a> argue that there is a <a href="/wiki/Natural_rate_of_unemployment" title="Natural rate of unemployment">natural rate of unemployment</a> which, when subtracted from the actual rate of unemployment, can be used to estimate the <a href="/wiki/Output_gap" title="Output gap">GDP gap</a> during a recession. In other words, unemployment never reaches 0%, so it is not a negative indicator of the health of an economy, unless it exceeds the "natural rate", in which case the excess corresponds directly to a loss in the GDP.<a href="#cite_note-146">[146]</a> The full impact of a recession on employment may not be felt for several quarters. After recessions in Britain in the 1980s and 1990s, it took five years for unemployment to fall back to its original levels.<a href="#cite_note-ESRC-147">[147]</a> Employment discrimination claims rise during a recession.<a href="#cite_note-148">[148]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Business">Business</h3></div> <a href="/wiki/Productivity" title="Productivity">Productivity</a> tends to fall in the early stages of a recession, then rises again as weaker firms close. The variation in <a href="/wiki/Profit_(accounting)" title="Profit (accounting)">profitability</a> between firms rises sharply.[<a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed">citation needed</a>] The fall in productivity could also be attributed to several macro-economic factors, such as the loss in productivity observed across the UK due to <a href="/wiki/Brexit" title="Brexit">Brexit</a>, which may create a mini-recession in the region. <a href="/wiki/Pandemic" title="Pandemic">Global epidemics</a>, such as <a href="/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019" class="mw-redirect" title="Coronavirus disease 2019">COVID-19</a>, could be another example, since they disrupt the global supply chain or prevent the movement of goods, services, and people. Recessions have also provided opportunities for <a href="/wiki/Anti-competitive" class="mw-redirect" title="Anti-competitive">anti-competitive</a> <a href="/wiki/Merger" class="mw-redirect" title="Merger">mergers</a>, with a negative impact on the wider economy; the suspension of <a href="/wiki/Competition_policy" class="mw-redirect" title="Competition policy">competition policy</a> in the United States in the 1930s may have extended the Great Depression.<a href="#cite_note-ESRC-147">[147]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Social_effects">Social effects</h3></div> The <a href="/wiki/Living_standards" class="mw-redirect" title="Living standards">living standards</a> of people dependent on wages and <a href="/wiki/Salaries" class="mw-redirect" title="Salaries">salaries</a> are less affected by recessions than those who rely on <a href="/wiki/Fixed_income" title="Fixed income">fixed incomes</a> or <a href="/wiki/Welfare_benefits" class="mw-redirect" title="Welfare benefits">welfare benefits</a>. The loss of a job is known to have a negative impact on the stability of families, and individuals' health and well-being. Fixed income benefits receive small cuts[<a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Please_clarify" title="Wikipedia:Please clarify">why?</a>] which make it tougher to survive.<a href="#cite_note-ESRC-147">[147]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="History">History</h2></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Global">Global</h3></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Global_recession" title="Global recession">Global recession</a></div> According to the <a href="/wiki/International_Monetary_Fund" title="International Monetary Fund">International Monetary Fund</a> (IMF), "Global recessions seem to occur over a cycle lasting between eight and 10 years."<a href="#cite_note-IMF2002_recession_statement-149">[149]</a> The IMF takes many factors into account when defining a global recession. Until April 2009, IMF several times communicated to the press, that a global annual <a href="/wiki/Real_GDP" class="mw-redirect" title="Real GDP">real GDP</a> growth of 3.0% or less in their view was "equivalent to a global recession".<a href="#cite_note-economist-12381879-150">[150]</a><a href="#cite_note-151">[151]</a> By this measure, six periods since 1970 qualify: 1974–1975,<a href="#cite_note-IMF0901-152">[152]</a> 1980–1983,<a href="#cite_note-IMF0901-152">[152]</a> 1990–1993,<a href="#cite_note-IMF0901-152">[152]</a><a href="#cite_note-b1-153">[153]</a> 1998,<a href="#cite_note-IMF0901-152">[152]</a><a href="#cite_note-b1-153">[153]</a> 2001–2002,<a href="#cite_note-IMF0901-152">[152]</a><a href="#cite_note-b1-153">[153]</a> and 2008–2009.<a href="#cite_note-IMF1301-154">[154]</a> During what IMF in April 2002 termed the past three global recessions of the last three decades, global per capita output growth was zero or negative, and IMF argued—at that time—that because of the opposite being found for 2001, the economic state in this year by itself did not qualify as a global recession.<a href="#cite_note-IMF2002_recession_statement-149">[149]</a> In April 2009, IMF had changed their Global recession definition to "A decline in annual per‑capita real World GDP (purchasing power parity weighted), backed up by a decline or worsening for one or more of the seven other global macroeconomic indicators: Industrial production, trade, capital flows, oil consumption, unemployment rate, per‑capita investment, and per‑capita consumption."<a href="#cite_note-New_IMF_Global_Recession_definition-155">[155]</a><a href="#cite_note-IMF_WEO_2009-156">[156]</a> By this new definition, a total of four global recessions took place since <a href="/wiki/World_War_II" title="World War II">World War II</a>: 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009. All of them only lasted one year, although the third would have lasted three years (1991–1993) if IMF as criteria had used the normal exchange rate weighted per‑capita real World GDP rather than the purchase power parity weighted per‑capita real World GDP.<a href="#cite_note-New_IMF_Global_Recession_definition-155">[155]</a><a href="#cite_note-IMF_WEO_2009-156">[156]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Australia">Australia</h3></div> As a result of late 1920s profit issues in agriculture and cutbacks, 1931–1932 saw Australia's biggest recession in its entire history. It fared better than other nations that underwent <a href="/wiki/Depression_(economics)" class="mw-redirect" title="Depression (economics)">depressions</a>, but their poor economic states influenced Australia, which depended on them for export, as well as <a href="/wiki/Foreign_investments" class="mw-redirect" title="Foreign investments">foreign investments</a>. The nation also benefited from greater productivity in manufacturing, facilitated by trade protection, which also helped with lessening the effects. The economy had gone into a brief recession in 1961 because of a credit squeeze. Australia was facing a rising level of <a href="/wiki/Inflation" title="Inflation">inflation</a> in 1973, caused partially by the oil crisis happening in that same year, which brought inflation at a 13% increase. Economic recession hit by the middle of the year 1974, with no change in policy enacted by the government as a measure to counter the economic situation of the country. Consequently, the unemployment level rose and the trade deficit increased significantly.<a href="#cite_note-157">[157]</a> Another recession came at the beginning of the 1990s as the result of a major stock collapse in October 1987,<a href="#cite_note-158">[158]</a> referred to now as <a href="/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)" title="Black Monday (1987)">Black Monday</a>. Although the collapse was larger than the one in 1929, the global economy recovered quickly, but North America still suffered a decline in lumbering savings and loans, which led to a crisis. The recession was not limited to the United States, but it also affected partnering nations such as Australia. The unemployment level increased to 10.8%, employment declined by 3.4% and the GDP also decreased as much as 1.7%. Inflation, however, was successfully reduced. Australia next went into recession in March 2020, due to the impact of huge bush fires and the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on tourism and other important aspects of the economy.<a href="#cite_note-159">[159]</a> This recession, while steep, only lasted until May 2020. <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="European_Union">European Union</h3></div> The <a href="/wiki/Eurozone" title="Eurozone">Eurozone</a> experienced a recession in 2012: the economies of the 17-nation region failed to grow during any quarter of the 2012 calendar year. The recession deepened during the final quarter of the year, with the <a href="/wiki/French_economy" class="mw-redirect" title="French economy">French</a>, <a href="/wiki/German_economy" class="mw-redirect" title="German economy">German</a> and <a href="/wiki/Italian_economy" class="mw-redirect" title="Italian economy">Italian</a> economies all affected.<a href="#cite_note-160">[160]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="United_Kingdom">United Kingdom</h3></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom" title="List of recessions in the United Kingdom">List of recessions in the United Kingdom</a></div> The most recent recession to affect the United Kingdom was the 2020 recession<a href="#cite_note-161">[161]</a> attributed to the <a href="/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019" class="mw-redirect" title="Coronavirus disease 2019">COVID-19</a> global pandemic, the first recession since the <a href="/wiki/Great_Recession" title="Great Recession">Great Recession</a>. <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="United_States">United States</h3></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States" title="List of recessions in the United States">List of recessions in the United States</a></div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Recessions_in_the_United_States_%E2%80%94_1930_through_2021.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Recessions_in_the_United_States_%E2%80%94_1930_through_2021.png/350px-Recessions_in_the_United_States_%E2%80%94_1930_through_2021.png" decoding="async" width="350" height="140" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Recessions_in_the_United_States_%E2%80%94_1930_through_2021.png/525px-Recessions_in_the_United_States_%E2%80%94_1930_through_2021.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Recessions_in_the_United_States_%E2%80%94_1930_through_2021.png/700px-Recessions_in_the_United_States_%E2%80%94_1930_through_2021.png 2x" data-file-width="1168" data-file-height="466" /></a><figcaption>Recessions in the United States – 1930 through 2021</figcaption></figure> <figure class="mw-halign-right" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:FFR_treasuries.webp" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f5/FFR_treasuries.webp/350px-FFR_treasuries.webp.png" decoding="async" width="350" height="138" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f5/FFR_treasuries.webp/525px-FFR_treasuries.webp.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f5/FFR_treasuries.webp/700px-FFR_treasuries.webp.png 2x" data-file-width="1464" data-file-height="576" /></a><figcaption><a href="/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve" title="Inverted yield curve">Inverted yield curves</a> correlation to recessions <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r981673959">.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}</style><div class="legend">  <a href="/wiki/Mortgage_loan" class="mw-redirect" title="Mortgage loan">30 year mortgage average</a></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r981673959"><div class="legend">  <a href="/wiki/Treasury_bond" class="mw-redirect" title="Treasury bond">30 Year Treasury Bond</a></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r981673959"><div class="legend">  10 Year Treasury Bond</div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r981673959"><div class="legend">  2 Year Treasury Bond</div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r981673959"><div class="legend">  3 month Treasury Bond</div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r981673959"><div class="legend">  Effective Federal Funds Rate</div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r981673959"><div class="legend">  <a href="/wiki/United_States_Consumer_Price_Index" title="United States Consumer Price Index">CPI inflation</a> year/year</div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r981673959">  <a href="/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States" title="List of recessions in the United States">Recessions</a> </figcaption></figure> According to economists, since 1854, the U.S. has encountered 32 cycles of expansions and contractions, with an average of 17 months of contraction and 38 months of expansion.<a href="#cite_note-nber.org-16">[16]</a> From 1980 to 2018 there were only eight periods of negative economic growth over one fiscal quarter or more,<a href="#cite_note-autogenerated1-162">[162]</a> and four periods considered recessions: <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Early_1980s_recession" title="Early 1980s recession">July 1981 – November 1982</a>: 15 months</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Early_1990s_recession" title="Early 1990s recession">July 1990 – March 1991</a>: 8 months</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Early_2000s_recession" title="Early 2000s recession">March 2001 – November 2001</a>: 8 months</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Recession" title="Great Recession">December 2007 – June 2009</a>: 18 months<a href="#cite_note-163">[163]</a><a href="#cite_note-164">[164]</a></li></ul> For the last three of these recessions, the NBER decision has approximately conformed with the definition involving two consecutive quarters of decline. While the 2001 recession did not involve two consecutive quarters of decline, it was preceded by two quarters of alternating decline and weak growth.<a href="#cite_note-autogenerated1-162">[162]</a> Since then, the NBER has also declared a 2-month <a href="/wiki/COVID-19_recession" title="COVID-19 recession">COVID-19 recession</a> for February 2020 – April 2020.<a href="#cite_note-165">[165]</a> In July 2022, the NBER released a statement regarding declaring a recession following a second consecutive quarter of shrinking GDP, "There is no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions".<a href="#cite_note-166">[166]</a> NBER has sometimes declared a recession before a second quarter of GDP shrinkage has been reported, but beginnings and endings can also be declared over a year after they are reckoned to have occurred. In 1947, NBER did not declare a recession despite two quarters of declining GDP, due to strong economic activity reported for employment, industrial production, and consumer spending.<a href="#cite_note-167">[167]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Late_2000s">Late 2000s</h3></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Great_Recession" title="Great Recession">Great Recession</a></div> Official economic data shows that a substantial number of nations were in recession as of early 2009. The US entered a recession at the end of 2007,<a href="#cite_note-nber-168">[168]</a> and 2008 saw many other nations follow suit. The US recession of 2007 ended in June 2009<a href="#cite_note-169">[169]</a> as the nation entered the current economic recovery. The <a href="/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Great_Recession" title="Timeline of the Great Recession">timeline of the Great Recession</a> details the many elements of this period. <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="United_States_2">United States</h4></div> The <a href="/wiki/United_States_housing_market_correction" class="mw-redirect" title="United States housing market correction">United States housing market correction</a> (a consequence of the <a href="/wiki/United_States_housing_bubble" class="mw-redirect" title="United States housing bubble">United States housing bubble</a>) and <a href="/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis" title="Subprime mortgage crisis">subprime mortgage crisis</a> significantly contributed to a recession. The <a href="/wiki/Great_Recession_in_the_United_States" title="Great Recession in the United States">2007–2009 recession</a> saw private consumption fall for the first time in nearly 20 years. This indicated the depth and severity of the recession. With consumer confidence so low, economic recovery took a long time. Consumers in the U.S. were hit hard by the Great Recession, with the value of their houses dropping and their pension savings decimated on the stock market.<a href="#cite_note-170">[170]</a> U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008,<a href="#cite_note-171">[171]</a> the most in five years. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on 6 April 2008 that "There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession."<a href="#cite_note-172">[172]</a> On 1 October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that an additional 156,000 jobs had been lost in September. On 29 April 2008, <a href="/wiki/Moody%27s" class="mw-redirect" title="Moody's">Moody's</a> declared that nine US states were in a recession. In November 2008, employers eliminated 533,000 jobs, the largest single-month loss in 34 years.<a href="#cite_note-173">[173]</a> In 2008, an estimated 2.6 million U.S. jobs were eliminated.<a href="#cite_note-174">[174]</a> The <a href="/wiki/Unemployment_rate" class="mw-redirect" title="Unemployment rate">unemployment rate</a> in the U.S. grew to 8.5% in March 2009,<a href="#cite_note-175">[175]</a> and there were 5.1 million job losses by March 2009 since the recession began in December 2007.<a href="#cite_note-176">[176]</a> That was about five million more people unemployed compared to just a year prior,<a href="#cite_note-177">[177]</a> which was the largest annual jump in the number of unemployed persons since the 1940s.<a href="#cite_note-178">[178]</a> Although the US economy grew in the first quarter by 1%,<a href="#cite_note-179">[179]</a><a href="#cite_note-180">[180]</a> by June 2008 some analysts stated that due to a protracted credit crisis and "rampant inflation in commodities such as oil, food, and steel", the country was nonetheless in a recession.<a href="#cite_note-181">[181]</a> The third quarter of 2008 brought on a GDP retraction of 0.5%,<a href="#cite_note-182">[182]</a> the biggest decline since 2001. The 6.4% decline in spending during Q3 on non-durable goods, like clothing and food, was the largest since 1950.<a href="#cite_note-183">[183]</a> A November 2008 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia based on the survey of 51 forecasters, suggested that the recession started in April 2008 and would last 14 months.<a href="#cite_note-184">[184]</a> They projected real GDP declining at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter and 1.1% in the first quarter of 2009. These forecasts represented significant downward revisions from the forecasts of three months prior. A December 2008 report from the National Bureau of Economic Research stated that the U.S. had been in a recession since December 2007, when economic activity peaked, based on several measures including job losses, declines in personal income, and declines in real GDP.<a href="#cite_note-185">[185]</a> By July 2009, a growing number of economists believed that the recession may have ended.<a href="#cite_note-186">[186]</a><a href="#cite_note-187">[187]</a> The National Bureau of Economic Research announced on 20 September 2010 that the 2008/2009 recession ended in June 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II.<a href="#cite_note-188">[188]</a> Prior to the start of the recession, it appears that no known formal theoretical or empirical model was able to accurately predict the advance of this recession, except for minor signals in the sudden rise of forecasted probabilities, which were still well under 50%.<a href="#cite_note-Park_Simar_Zelenyuk_2019_pp._379–392-121">[121]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1184024115">.mw-parser-output .div-col{margin-top:0.3em;column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .div-col-small{font-size:90%}.mw-parser-output .div-col-rules{column-rule:1px solid #aaa}.mw-parser-output .div-col dl,.mw-parser-output .div-col ol,.mw-parser-output .div-col ul{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .div-col li,.mw-parser-output .div-col dd{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}</style><div class="div-col" style="column-width: 21em;"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/1991_Indian_economic_crisis" title="1991 Indian economic crisis">1991 Indian economic crisis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Credit_crunch" title="Credit crunch">Credit crunch</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Deflation" title="Deflation">Deflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Depression_(economics)" class="mw-redirect" title="Depression (economics)">Depression</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disinflation" title="Disinflation">Disinflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_collapse" title="Economic collapse">Economic collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_stagnation" title="Economic stagnation">Economic stagnation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flooding_the_market" title="Flooding the market">Flooding the market</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Foreclosure" title="Foreclosure">Foreclosure</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hindu_rate_of_growth" title="Hindu rate of growth">Hindu rate of growth</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Inventory_bounce" title="Inventory bounce">Inventory bounce</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States" title="List of recessions in the United States">List of recessions in the United States</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overproduction" title="Overproduction">Overproduction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stock_market_crashes_in_India" title="Stock market crashes in India">Stock market crashes in India</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stagflation" title="Stagflation">Stagflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Underconsumption" title="Underconsumption">Underconsumption</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/COVID-19_recession" title="COVID-19 recession">COVID-19 recession</a></li></ul> </div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap mw-references-columns"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</a> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration 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Retrieved 13 May 2020.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Medium&rft.atitle=Psychological+Biases+and+Errors+that+led+to+historic+bubbles+and+crashes&rft.date=2020-05-13&rft.au=How+to+be+an+Adult&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fmedium.com%2F%40how.to.be.an.adult.01%2Fbiases-and-errors-that-led-to-historic-bubbles-and-crashes-52df73cf44f&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-Jupe2014-35"><a href="#cite_ref-Jupe2014_35-0">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFJupe2014" class="citation book cs1">Jupe, Robert (2014). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://books.google.com/books?id=ip_IAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA11">"Accounting, balance sheet"</a>. In Michie, Jonathan (ed.). Reader's Guide to the Social Sciences. Routledge. p. 11. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-1-135-93226-8" title="Special:BookSources/978-1-135-93226-8"><bdi>978-1-135-93226-8</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.atitle=Accounting%2C+balance+sheet&rft.btitle=Reader%27s+Guide+to+the+Social+Sciences&rft.pages=11&rft.pub=Routledge&rft.date=2014&rft.isbn=978-1-135-93226-8&rft.aulast=Jupe&rft.aufirst=Robert&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fbooks.google.com%2Fbooks%3Fid%3Dip_IAgAAQBAJ%26pg%3DPA11&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-36"><a href="#cite_ref-36">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFKrugman2014" class="citation magazine cs1">Krugman, Paul (10 July 2014). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/jul/10/geithner-does-he-pass-test/">"Does He Pass the Test? 'Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises' by Timothy Geithner"</a>. New York Review of Books. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20151105050812/http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/jul/10/geithner-does-he-pass-test/">Archived</a> from the original on 5 November 2015. 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Palgrave Macmillan UK. pp. 7929–7936. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1057%2F978-1-349-95189-5_2482">10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_2482</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-1-349-95189-5" title="Special:BookSources/978-1-349-95189-5"><bdi>978-1-349-95189-5</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.atitle=Liquidity+Trap&rft.btitle=The+New+Palgrave+Dictionary+of+Economics&rft.pages=7929-7936&rft.pub=Palgrave+Macmillan+UK&rft.date=2018&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1057%2F978-1-349-95189-5_2482&rft.isbn=978-1-349-95189-5&rft.aulast=Eggertsson&rft.aufirst=Gauti+B.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2Freferenceworkentry%2F10.1057%2F978-1-349-95189-5_2482&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-CorreiaFarhi_2012-41"><a href="#cite_ref-CorreiaFarhi_2012_41-0">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFCorreiaFarhiNicoliniTeles2012" class="citation web cs1">Correia, Isabel; Farhi, Emmanuel; Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Teles, Pedro (August 2012). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/wp/wp698.pdf">"Unconventional Fiscal Policy at the Zero Bound: Working Paper 698"</a> (PDF). 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Norton Company Limited. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0-393-07101-6" title="Special:BookSources/978-0-393-07101-6"><bdi>978-0-393-07101-6</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=The+Return+of+Depression+Economics+and+the+Crisis+of+2008&rft.pub=W.W.+Norton+Company+Limited&rft.date=2009&rft.isbn=978-0-393-07101-6&rft.aulast=Krugman&rft.aufirst=Paul&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Farchive.org%2Fdetails%2Freturnofdepressi00krug&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-43"><a href="#cite_ref-43">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/17/how-much-of-the-world-is-in-a-liquidity-trap/">"How Much of the World is in a Liquidity Trap?"</a>. 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Retrieved 18 September 2019.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Business+Insider&rft.atitle=The+%22bloodbath%22+in+America%27s+trucking+industry+has+officially+spilled+over+to+the+rest+of+the+economy&rft.aulast=Premack&rft.aufirst=Rachel&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Ftrucking-truckers-bloodbath-signals-recession-inverted-yield-2019-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-72"><a href="#cite_ref-72">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.cassinfo.com/hubfs/Freight%20Payment%20/Transportation%20Indexes/Cass%20Freight%20Index/Reports/Cass%20Freight%20Index%20Report%20-%20August%202019.pdf?hsCtaTracking=5fde9be4-1dd0-462f-8c5f-b100aca52fc1%7C0990f099-885d-442a-972a-aeb259c5a188">"Cass Freight Index Report"</a> (PDF). August 2019. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20191213020611/https://www.cassinfo.com/hubfs/Freight%20Payment%20/Transportation%20Indexes/Cass%20Freight%20Index/Reports/Cass%20Freight%20Index%20Report%20-%20August%202019.pdf?hsCtaTracking=5fde9be4-1dd0-462f-8c5f-b100aca52fc1%7C0990f099-885d-442a-972a-aeb259c5a188">Archived</a> (PDF) from the original on 13 December 2019. 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Fisher Investments.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Fisher+Investments&rft.atitle=Bear+Market+Indicators&rft.date=2024&rft.aulast=Fisher&rft.aufirst=Ken&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fisherinvestments.com%2Fen-us%2Fresource-library%2Fmarket-cycles%2Fbear-markets%2Findicators&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-75"><a href="#cite_ref-75">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2508303/recessionary-indicators">"Recessionary Indicators"</a>. GuruFocus. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240824152220/https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2508303/recessionary-indicators">Archived</a> from the original on 24 August 2024. Retrieved 22 August 2024.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=GuruFocus&rft.atitle=Recessionary+Indicators&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gurufocus.com%2Fnews%2F2508303%2Frecessionary-indicators&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-76"><a href="#cite_ref-76">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFKelley2019" class="citation web cs1">Kelley, David (2019). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/425">"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"</a>. 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New York University's Stern School of Business.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=New+York+University%27s+Stern+School+of+Business&rft.atitle=Business-Cycle+Indicators&rft.date=2024&rft.aulast=Backus&rft.aufirst=David&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fpages.stern.nyu.edu%2F~dbackus%2F2303%2Fnotes_indicators.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-78"><a href="#cite_ref-78">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2508303/recessionary-indicators">"Recessionary Indicators"</a>. GuruFocus. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240824152220/https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2508303/recessionary-indicators">Archived</a> from the original on 24 August 2024. Retrieved 22 August 2024.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=GuruFocus&rft.atitle=Recessionary+Indicators&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gurufocus.com%2Fnews%2F2508303%2Frecessionary-indicators&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-79"><a href="#cite_ref-79">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFFox2024" class="citation news cs1">Fox, Matthew (26 August 2024). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-indicator-perkins-rule-negative-payroll-report-sahm-unemployment-rate-2024-8">"The Sahm Rule has flashed, but there's a simpler recession indicator investors should be watching"</a>. Business Insider. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240827144004/https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-indicator-perkins-rule-negative-payroll-report-sahm-unemployment-rate-2024-8">Archived</a> from the original on 27 August 2024. Retrieved 27 August 2024.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Business+Insider&rft.atitle=The+Sahm+Rule+has+flashed%2C+but+there%27s+a+simpler+recession+indicator+investors+should+be+watching&rft.date=2024-08-26&rft.aulast=Fox&rft.aufirst=Matthew&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Frecession-indicator-perkins-rule-negative-payroll-report-sahm-unemployment-rate-2024-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-80"><a href="#cite_ref-80">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFAdinolfi2024" class="citation news cs1">Adinolfi, Joseph (7 May 2024). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-flat-after-1000-point-rally-in-four-days/card/a-reliable-labor-market-recession-indicator-has-triggered-but-this-time-it-could-be-bullish-for-stocks-sXgJRUlCo2TNywR6XgDc">"A reliable labor-market recession indicator has triggered — but this time it could be bullish for stocks"</a>. Marketwatch. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240829170606/https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-flat-after-1000-point-rally-in-four-days/card/a-reliable-labor-market-recession-indicator-has-triggered-but-this-time-it-could-be-bullish-for-stocks-sXgJRUlCo2TNywR6XgDc">Archived</a> from the original on 29 August 2024. Retrieved 29 August 2024.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Marketwatch&rft.atitle=A+reliable+labor-market+recession+indicator+has+triggered+%E2%80%94+but+this+time+it+could+be+bullish+for+stocks&rft.date=2024-05-07&rft.aulast=Adinolfi&rft.aufirst=Joseph&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Flivecoverage%2Fstock-market-today-dow-futures-flat-after-1000-point-rally-in-four-days%2Fcard%2Fa-reliable-labor-market-recession-indicator-has-triggered-but-this-time-it-could-be-bullish-for-stocks-sXgJRUlCo2TNywR6XgDc&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-81"><a href="#cite_ref-81">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFEdwards2024" class="citation news cs1">Edwards, William (3 August 2024). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-recession-indicators-jobs-report-unemploymnet-rate-sp500-2024-8">"2 recession indicators with perfect track records show the US just entered a downturn — opening the door for stocks to plummet as the Fed gets set to cut rates"</a>. Business Insider. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240829164157/https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-recession-indicators-jobs-report-unemploymnet-rate-sp500-2024-8">Archived</a> from the original on 29 August 2024. Retrieved 29 August 2024.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Business+Insider&rft.atitle=2+recession+indicators+with+perfect+track+records+show+the+US+just+entered+a+downturn+%E2%80%94+opening+the+door+for+stocks+to+plummet+as+the+Fed+gets+set+to+cut+rates&rft.date=2024-08-03&rft.aulast=Edwards&rft.aufirst=William&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Fstock-market-crash-recession-indicators-jobs-report-unemploymnet-rate-sp500-2024-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-82"><a href="#cite_ref-82">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://phys.org/news/2016-08-income-wealth-inequality-recessions-worse.html">"Income and wealth inequality make recessions worse, research reveals"</a>. phys.org. 2016. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20191213085932/https://phys.org/news/2016-08-income-wealth-inequality-recessions-worse.html">Archived</a> from the original on 13 December 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=phys.org&rft.atitle=Income+and+wealth+inequality+make+recessions+worse%2C+research+reveals&rft.date=2016&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fphys.org%2Fnews%2F2016-08-income-wealth-inequality-recessions-worse.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-83"><a href="#cite_ref-83">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFNevesAfonsoSilva2016" class="citation journal cs1">Neves, Pedro Cunha; Afonso, Óscar; Silva, Sandra Tavares (February 2016). "A Meta-Analytic Reassessment of the Effects of Inequality on Growth". 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The Wall Street Journal. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20200608110107/https://www.wsj.com/articles/one-countys-rv-industry-points-to-recession-around-the-bend-11566207001">Archived</a> from the original on 8 June 2020. 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Retrieved 29 August 2024.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=CNN&rft.atitle=Is+a+recession+coming%3F+Alan+Greenspan+says+the+answer+is+in+men%E2%80%99s+underwear&rft.date=2022-03-26&rft.aulast=Goodkind&rft.aufirst=Nicole&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fedition.cnn.com%2F2022%2F03%2F26%2Feconomy%2Frecession-underwear-alan-greenspan%2Findex.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-107"><a href="#cite_ref-107">^</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/60871-leading-economic-indicators-suggest-u-s-in-recession">Leading Economic Indicators Suggest U.S. In Recession</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090706061913/http://seekingalpha.com/article/60871-leading-economic-indicators-suggest-u-s-in-recession">Archived</a> 6 July 2009 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a> 21 January 2008 </li> <li id="cite_note-108"><a href="#cite_ref-108">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators">"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S."</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240804182701/https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators">Archived</a> from the original on 4 August 2024. 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Retrieved 25 August 2019.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Board+of+Governors+of+the+Federal+Reserve+System&rft.atitle=Direct+Stimulus+Payments+to+Individuals&rft.date=2019-05-06&rft.aulast=Sahm&rft.aufirst=Claudia&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.hamiltonproject.org%2Fassets%2Ffiles%2FSahm_web_20190506.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-126"><a href="#cite_ref-126">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFLihn2019" class="citation ssrn cs1">Lihn, Stephen H. T. (10 August 2019). 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Retrieved 29 January 2011.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=USA+Today&rft.atitle=Text+of+the+NBER%27s+statement+on+the+recession&rft.date=2008-12-01&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fmoney%2Feconomy%2F2008-12-01-recession-nber-statement_N.htm&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-186"><a href="#cite_ref-186">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFGross2009" class="citation web cs1"><a href="/wiki/Daniel_Gross_(journalist)" title="Daniel Gross (journalist)">Gross, Daniel</a> (13 July 2009). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.newsweek.com/daniel-gross-recession-over-82097">"Daniel Gross: The Recession is Over?"</a>. Newsweek.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Newsweek&rft.atitle=Daniel+Gross%3A+The+Recession+is+Over%3F&rft.date=2009-07-13&rft.aulast=Gross&rft.aufirst=Daniel&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fdaniel-gross-recession-over-82097&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-187"><a href="#cite_ref-187">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFKeilis-BorokSolovievIntriligatorWinberg2008" class="citation journal cs1">Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Soloviev, A. A.; Intriligator, M. D.; Winberg, F. E. (2008). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://jprr.org/index.php/jprr/article/viewFile/106/23">"Pattern of Macroeconomic Indicators Preceding the End of an American Economic Recession"</a>. Journal of Pattern Recognition Research. 3 (1): 40–53. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.13176%2F11.106">10.13176/11.106</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISSN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISSN (identifier)">ISSN</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://search.worldcat.org/issn/1558-884X">1558-884X</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Journal+of+Pattern+Recognition+Research&rft.atitle=Pattern+of+Macroeconomic+Indicators+Preceding+the+End+of+an+American+Economic+Recession&rft.volume=3&rft.issue=1&rft.pages=40-53&rft.date=2008&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.13176%2F11.106&rft.issn=1558-884X&rft.aulast=Keilis-Borok&rft.aufirst=V.+I.&rft.au=Soloviev%2C+A.+A.&rft.au=Intriligator%2C+M.+D.&rft.au=Winberg%2C+F.+E.&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fjprr.org%2Findex.php%2Fjprr%2Farticle%2FviewFile%2F106%2F23&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> <li id="cite_note-188"><a href="#cite_ref-188">^</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html">"Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research"</a>. nber.org. 20 September 2010. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210302041430/http://www2.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html">Archived</a> from the original on 2 March 2021. Retrieved 26 November 2018.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=nber.org&rft.atitle=Business+Cycle+Dating+Committee%2C+National+Bureau+of+Economic+Research&rft.date=2010-09-20&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nber.org%2Fcycles%2Fsept2010.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> </li> </ol></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1235681985">.mw-parser-output .side-box{margin:4px 0;box-sizing:border-box;border:1px solid #aaa;font-size:88%;line-height:1.25em;background-color:var(--background-color-interactive-subtle,#f8f9fa);display:flow-root}.mw-parser-output .side-box-abovebelow,.mw-parser-output .side-box-text{padding:0.25em 0.9em}.mw-parser-output .side-box-image{padding:2px 0 2px 0.9em;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .side-box-imageright{padding:2px 0.9em 2px 0;text-align:center}@media(min-width:500px){.mw-parser-output .side-box-flex{display:flex;align-items:center}.mw-parser-output .side-box-text{flex:1;min-width:0}}@media(min-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .side-box{width:238px}.mw-parser-output .side-box-right{clear:right;float:right;margin-left:1em}.mw-parser-output .side-box-left{margin-right:1em}}</style><div class="side-box metadata side-box-right"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1126788409"> <div class="side-box-abovebelow"> <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:The_Wikipedia_Library" title="Wikipedia:The Wikipedia Library">Library resources</a> about Recession <hr /></div> <div class="side-box-flex"> <div class="side-box-text plainlist"><ul><li><a class="external text" href="https://ftl.toolforge.org/cgi-bin/ftl?st=wp&su=Recession">Resources in your library</a></li> </ul></div></div> </div> <ul><li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFMoore2002" class="citation encyclopaedia cs1">Moore, Geoffrey H. (2002). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc1/Recessions.html">"Recessions"</a>. In <a href="/wiki/David_R._Henderson" title="David R. Henderson">Henderson, David R.</a> (ed.). <a href="/wiki/Concise_Encyclopedia_of_Economics" class="mw-redirect" title="Concise Encyclopedia of Economics">Concise Encyclopedia of Economics</a> (1st ed.). <a href="/wiki/Library_of_Economics_and_Liberty" class="mw-redirect" title="Library of Economics and Liberty">Library of Economics and Liberty</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.atitle=Recessions&rft.btitle=Concise+Encyclopedia+of+Economics&rft.edition=1st&rft.pub=Library+of+Economics+and+Liberty&rft.date=2002&rft.aulast=Moore&rft.aufirst=Geoffrey+H.&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.econlib.org%2Flibrary%2FEnc1%2FRecessions.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ARecession" class="Z3988"> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><a href="/wiki/OCLC_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="OCLC (identifier)">OCLC</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/317650570">317650570</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/50016270">50016270</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/163149563">163149563</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html">Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions</a> The National Bureau Of Economic Research</li></ul> <div class="navbox-styles"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236075235">.mw-parser-output .navbox{box-sizing:border-box;border:1px solid #a2a9b1;width:100%;clear:both;font-size:88%;text-align:center;padding:1px;margin:1em auto 0}.mw-parser-output .navbox .navbox{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .navbox+.navbox,.mw-parser-output .navbox+.navbox-styles+.navbox{margin-top:-1px}.mw-parser-output .navbox-inner,.mw-parser-output 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.navbox-abovebelow{background-color:#e6e6ff}.mw-parser-output .navbox-even{background-color:#f7f7f7}.mw-parser-output .navbox-odd{background-color:transparent}.mw-parser-output .navbox .hlist td dl,.mw-parser-output .navbox .hlist td ol,.mw-parser-output .navbox .hlist td ul,.mw-parser-output .navbox td.hlist dl,.mw-parser-output .navbox td.hlist ol,.mw-parser-output .navbox td.hlist ul{padding:0.125em 0}.mw-parser-output .navbox .navbar{display:block;font-size:100%}.mw-parser-output .navbox-title .navbar{float:left;text-align:left;margin-right:0.5em}body.skin--responsive .mw-parser-output .navbox-image img{max-width:none!important}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .navbox{display:none!important}}</style></div><div role="navigation" class="navbox" aria-labelledby="Economic_expansions_and_recessions_in_the_United_States_and_Commonwealth_of_Nations_countries" style="padding:3px"><table class="nowraplinks hlist mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-inner" style="border-spacing:0;background:transparent;color:inherit"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1239400231"><div class="navbar plainlinks hlist navbar-mini"><ul><li class="nv-view"><a href="/wiki/Template:United_States_%E2%80%93_Commonwealth_of_Nations_recessions" title="Template:United States – Commonwealth of Nations recessions"><abbr title="View this template">v</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a href="/wiki/Template_talk:United_States_%E2%80%93_Commonwealth_of_Nations_recessions" title="Template talk:United States – Commonwealth of Nations recessions"><abbr title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Template:United_States_%E2%80%93_Commonwealth_of_Nations_recessions" title="Special:EditPage/Template:United States – Commonwealth of Nations recessions"><abbr title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div><div id="Economic_expansions_and_recessions_in_the_United_States_and_Commonwealth_of_Nations_countries" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/List_of_economic_expansions_in_the_United_States" title="List of economic expansions in the United States">Economic expansions</a> and <a href="/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States" title="List of recessions in the United States">recessions in the United States</a> and <a href="/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Commonwealth_of_Nations" title="Member states of the Commonwealth of Nations">Commonwealth of Nations countries</a></div></th></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Aggregate_demand" title="Aggregate demand">Aggregate demand</a>/<a href="/wiki/Aggregate_supply" title="Aggregate supply">Supply</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effective_demand" title="Effective demand">Effective demand</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/General_glut" title="General glut">General glut</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/AD%E2%80%93AS_model" title="AD–AS model">Model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overproduction" title="Overproduction">Overproduction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paradox_of_thrift" title="Paradox of thrift">Paradox of thrift</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nominal_rigidity" title="Nominal rigidity">Price-and-wage stickiness</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Underconsumption" title="Underconsumption">Underconsumption</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Business_cycle" title="Business cycle">Business cycle</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Deflation" title="Deflation">Deflation</a>/<a href="/wiki/Inflation" title="Inflation">Inflation</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Chronic_inflation" title="Chronic inflation">Chronic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Classical_dichotomy" title="Classical dichotomy">Classical dichotomy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disinflation" title="Disinflation">Disinflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Money_supply" title="Money supply">Money supply</a>/<a href="/wiki/Demand_for_money" title="Demand for money">demand</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Neutrality_of_money" title="Neutrality of money">Neutrality of money</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Price_level" title="Price level">Price level</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Real_versus_nominal_value_(economics)" class="mw-redirect" title="Real versus nominal value (economics)">Real and nominal values</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Velocity_of_money" title="Velocity of money">Velocity of money</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_expansion" title="Economic expansion">Economic expansion</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Economic_recovery" title="Economic recovery">Recovery</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_stagnation" title="Economic stagnation">Stagnation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_economic_expansions_in_the_United_States" title="List of economic expansions in the United States">U.S. expansions</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Interest_rate" title="Interest rate">Interest rate</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Nominal_interest_rate" title="Nominal interest rate">Nominal interest rate</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Real_interest_rate" title="Real interest rate">Real interest rate</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Yield_curve" title="Yield curve">Yield curve</a>/<a href="/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve" title="Inverted yield curve">Inverted</a></li></ul></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Recession</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Balance_sheet_recession" title="Balance sheet recession">Balance sheet</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_depression" title="Economic depression">Depression</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Global_recession" title="Global recession">Global</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rolling_recession" title="Rolling recession">Rolling</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Recession_shapes" title="Recession shapes">Shapes</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stagflation" title="Stagflation">Stagflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom" title="List of recessions in the United Kingdom">U.K. recessions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States" title="List of recessions in the United States">U.S. recessions</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shock_(economics)" title="Shock (economics)">Shock</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Demand_shock" title="Demand shock">Demand</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Supply_shock" title="Supply shock">Supply</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Unemployment" title="Unemployment">Unemployment</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Sahm_rule" title="Sahm rule">Sahm rule</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Commercial_revolution" title="Commercial revolution">Commercial revolution</a> (1000–1760)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Great_Slump_(15th_century)" title="Great Slump (15th century)">Great Slump</a> (1430–1490)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/War_of_the_Spanish_Succession" title="War of the Spanish Succession">Slump of 1706</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Frost_of_1709" title="Great Frost of 1709">Great Frost of 1709</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Industrial_Revolution" title="Industrial Revolution">1st Industrial Revolution</a> (1760–1840)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/British_credit_crisis_of_1772%E2%80%931773" title="British credit crisis of 1772–1773">British credit crisis of 1772–1773</a> <ul><li>1772–1774; <a href="/wiki/British_credit_crisis_of_1772%E2%80%931773#Effects_in_London" title="British credit crisis of 1772–1773">England</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/British_credit_crisis_of_1772%E2%80%931773#Scotland" title="British credit crisis of 1772–1773">Scotland</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/British_credit_crisis_of_1772%E2%80%931773" title="British credit crisis of 1772–1773">American Colonies</a></li></ul></li> <li>1785–1788</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Copper_Panic_of_1789" title="Copper Panic of 1789">Copper Panic of 1789</a>/<a href="/wiki/Panic_of_1792" title="Panic of 1792">Panic of 1792</a> (1789–1793)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Panic_of_1796%E2%80%931797" title="Panic of 1796–1797">Panic of 1796–1797</a> (1796–1799)</li> <li>1802–1804</li> <li>1807–1810</li> <li>1812</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Post-Napoleonic_Depression" title="Post-Napoleonic Depression">Post-Napoleonic Depression</a> (1815–1821)</li> <li>1822–23</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Panic_of_1825" title="Panic of 1825">Panic of 1825</a> (1825–1826)</li> <li>1828–29</li> <li>1833–34</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Panic_of_1837" title="Panic of 1837">Panic of 1837</a> (1836–1838 and 1839–1843)</li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Victorian_era" title="Victorian era">Early Victorian Britain</a>/ <a href="/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_(1849%E2%80%931865)" title="History of the United States (1849–1865)">Civil War-era United States</a> (1840–1870)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li>1845–46</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Panic_of_1847" title="Panic of 1847">Panic of 1847</a> (1847–1848)</li> <li>1853–54</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Panic_of_1857" title="Panic of 1857">Panic of 1857</a> (1857–1858)</li> <li>1860–61</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Panic_of_1866" title="Panic of 1866">Panic of 1866</a> (1865–1867)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Black_Friday_(1869)" title="Black Friday (1869)">Black Friday</a> (1869–1870)</li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Gilded_Age" title="Gilded Age">Gilded Age</a>/ <a href="/wiki/Second_Industrial_Revolution" title="Second Industrial Revolution">2nd Industrial Revolution</a> (1870–1914)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Long_Depression" title="Long Depression">Long Depression</a>/<a href="/wiki/The_Great_Deflation" title="The Great Deflation">Great Deflation</a> <ul><li>1873–1879; <a href="/wiki/Long_Depression#United_Kingdom" title="Long Depression">United Kingdom</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Long_Depression#United_States" title="Long Depression">United States</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Depression_of_1882%E2%80%931885" title="Depression of 1882–1885">Depression of 1882–1885</a></li> <li>1887–88</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Baring_crisis" title="Baring crisis">Baring crisis</a> (1890–1891)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Panic_of_1893" title="Panic of 1893">Panic of 1893</a> (1893–1897)</li> <li>1899–1900</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Panic_of_1901" title="Panic of 1901">Panic of 1901</a> (1902–1904)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Panic_of_1907" title="Panic of 1907">Panic of 1907</a> (1907–1908)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Panic_of_1910%E2%80%9311" title="Panic of 1910–11">Panic of 1910–11</a> (1910–1912)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_1914" title="Financial crisis of 1914">Financial crisis of 1914</a> (1913–14)</li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Interwar_period" title="Interwar period">Interwar period</a> (1918–1939)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Post%E2%80%93World_War_I_recession" title="Post–World War I recession">Post–World War I recession</a> (1918–1919)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Depression_of_1920%E2%80%931921" title="Depression of 1920–1921">Depression of 1920–1921</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Roaring_Twenties" title="Roaring Twenties">Roaring Twenties</a></li> <li>1923–1924</li> <li>1926–1927</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Depression" title="Great Depression">Great Depression</a> <ul><li>1929–1939; <a href="/wiki/Great_Depression_in_Australia" title="Great Depression in Australia">Australia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Depression_in_Canada" title="Great Depression in Canada">Canada</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Depression_in_India" title="Great Depression in India">India</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/History_of_New_Zealand" title="History of New Zealand">New Zealand</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Depression_in_South_Africa" title="Great Depression in South Africa">South Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Depression_in_the_United_Kingdom" title="Great Depression in the United Kingdom">United Kingdom</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Depression_in_the_United_States" title="Great Depression in the United States">United States</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Recession_of_1937%E2%80%931938" title="Recession of 1937–1938">Recession of 1937–1938</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Post%E2%80%93World_War_II_economic_expansion" title="Post–World War II economic expansion">Post–WWII expansion</a> (1945–1973)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li>1945</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Recession_of_1949" title="Recession of 1949">Recession of 1949</a> (1948–1949)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Recession_of_1953" title="Recession of 1953">Recession of 1953</a> (1953–1954)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Recession_of_1958" title="Recession of 1958">Recession of 1958</a> (1957–1958)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Recession_of_1960%E2%80%931961" title="Recession of 1960–1961">Recession of 1960–1961</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Recession_of_1969%E2%80%931970" title="Recession of 1969–1970">Recession of 1969–1970</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Stagflation" title="Stagflation">Great Inflation</a> (1973–1982)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/1973%E2%80%931975_recession" title="1973–1975 recession">1973–1975 recession</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/1973%E2%80%931975_recession#United_Kingdom" title="1973–1975 recession">United Kingdom</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/1973%E2%80%931975_recession#United_States" title="1973–1975 recession">United States</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Early_1980s_recession" title="Early 1980s recession">Early 1980s recession</a> <ul><li>1980–1982; <a href="/wiki/Early_1980s_recession#Canada" title="Early 1980s recession">Canada</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Early_1980s_recession#United_Kingdom" title="Early 1980s recession">United Kingdom</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Early_1980s_recession_in_the_United_States" title="Early 1980s recession in the United States">United States</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Great_Moderation" title="Great Moderation">Great Moderation</a>/ <a href="/wiki/Great_Regression" class="mw-redirect" title="Great Regression">Great Regression</a> (1982–2007)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/1990s_United_States_boom" title="1990s United States boom">1990s United States boom</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Early_1990s_recession" title="Early 1990s recession">Early 1990s recession</a> <ul><li>1990–1991; <a href="/wiki/Early_1990s_recession_in_Australia" title="Early 1990s recession in Australia">Australia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Early_1990s_recession#Canada" title="Early 1990s recession">Canada</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Early_1990s_recession#United_Kingdom" title="Early 1990s recession">United Kingdom</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Early_1990s_recession_in_the_United_States" title="Early 1990s recession in the United States">United States</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis" title="1997 Asian financial crisis">1997 Asian financial crisis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Early_2000s_recession" title="Early 2000s recession">Early 2000s recession</a> (2001)</li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Information_Age" title="Information Age">Information Age</a> (2007–present)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Great_Recession" title="Great Recession">Great Recession</a> <ul><li>2007–2009; <a href="/wiki/Great_Recession_in_Oceania#Australia" title="Great Recession in Oceania">Australia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Recession_in_Asia#Bangladesh" title="Great Recession in Asia">Bangladesh</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Recession_in_the_Americas#Canada" title="Great Recession in the Americas">Canada</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Recession_in_Asia#India" title="Great Recession in Asia">India</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Recession_in_Asia#Malysia" title="Great Recession in Asia">Malaysia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Recession_in_Oceania#New_Zealand" title="Great Recession in Oceania">New Zealand</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Recession_in_Asia#Pakistan" title="Great Recession in Asia">Pakistan</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Recession_in_Africa" title="Great Recession in Africa">South Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Recession_in_Asia#Sri_Lanka" title="Great Recession in Asia">Sri Lanka</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Recession_in_Europe#United_Kingdom" title="Great Recession in Europe">United Kingdom</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Recession_in_the_United_States" title="Great Recession in the United States">United States</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/COVID-19_recession" title="COVID-19 recession">COVID-19 recession</a> <ul><li>2020–2022; <a href="/wiki/COVID-19_recession#Australia" title="COVID-19 recession">Australia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/COVID-19_recession#Bangladsh" title="COVID-19 recession">Bangladesh</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/COVID-19_recession#Belize" title="COVID-19 recession">Belize</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/COVID-19_recession#Botswana" title="COVID-19 recession">Botswana</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_Canada" title="Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada">Canada</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_India" title="Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in India">India</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_Malaysia" title="Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia">Malaysia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/COVID-19_recession#Namibia" title="COVID-19 recession">Namibia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_Zealand" title="Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand">New Zealand</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Singapore#Economic_impact" title="COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore">Singapore</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom" title="Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom">United Kingdom</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States" title="Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States">United States</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/COVID-19_recession#Zambia" title="COVID-19 recession">Zambia</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></div> <div class="navbox-styles"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" 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0.25em"><ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://id.worldcat.org/fast/1091358/">FAST</a></li></ul></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">National</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"><ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://d-nb.info/gnd/4177966-6">Germany</a></li><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://id.loc.gov/authorities/sh87001333">United States</a></li><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb12553831j">France</a></li><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://data.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb12553831j">BnF data</a></li><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://aleph.nkp.cz/F/?func=find-c&local_base=aut&ccl_term=ica=ph120009&CON_LNG=ENG">Czech Republic</a></li><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://olduli.nli.org.il/F/?func=find-b&local_base=NLX10&find_code=UID&request=987007541404105171">Israel</a></li></ul></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Other</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"><ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/10642538">NARA</a></li></ul></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><noscript><img src="https://login.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:CentralAutoLogin/start?type=1x1" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border: none; position: absolute;"></noscript> <div class="printfooter" data-nosnippet="">Retrieved from "<a dir="ltr" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Recession&oldid=1243110979">https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Recession&oldid=1243110979</a>"</div></div> <div id="catlinks" class="catlinks" data-mw="interface"><div id="mw-normal-catlinks" 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