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style="color:">2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬</h2> 2024-07-12 16:52 来源：隆众资讯 作者：刘娜 <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div class="summary">摘要： 液化气市场，液化气热点聚焦 </div> <div data-val="40037" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> 导语：2024年上半年中国液化气市场先稳后涨，振幅较小，液化气均价5092元/吨，同比下跌5.51%，国际市场与基本面影响交织。上半年PDH装置扩张仍在继续，化工需求快速增长，中国进口气体量逐渐攀升，上半年中国液化气进口量达到1705.67万吨，同比增长9.29%。2024年下半年，国内炼厂检修企业减少，商品量预计同比增长8.11%，环比增长8.03%。需求端下游装置仍有扩能计划带动化工消费提升，且进入四季度，燃烧需求将进入旺季。供需基本面博弈，市场趋势或震荡向上运行，民用主流运行区间预计4600-5500元/吨；醚后碳四主流预计5200-6000元/吨。第一部分：液化气行业回顾分析1、市场行情——基本面主导走势平缓表1 2024年1-6月与去年同期价格对比表<table width="100%" width="614"><tbody><tr style=";height:16px" class="firstRow"><td width="89" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-left: none; border-bottom: none; border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">项目</td><td width="60" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-left: none; border-bottom: none; border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">单位</td><td width="106" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-left: none; border-bottom: none; border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">2023年1-6月</td><td width="133" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-left: none; border-bottom: none; border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">2024年1-6月</td><td width="85" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-left: none; border-bottom: none; border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">涨跌值</td><td width="142" style="border-right: none; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">同比涨跌幅</td></tr><tr style=";height:16px"><td width="89" style="border: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">国内均价</td><td width="60" style="border-top: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">元/吨</td><td width="106" style="border-top: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-image: initial; border-left: none; padding: 0px 7px;">5389</td><td width="133" style="border-top: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-image: initial; border-left: none; padding: 0px 7px;">5097</td><td width="85" style="border-top: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-292</td><td width="142" style="border-top: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-5.42%</td></tr><tr style=";height:16px"><td width="89" style="border-right: 1px solid windowtext; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-left: 1px solid windowtext; border-image: initial; border-top: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">华南</td><td width="60" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">元/吨</td><td width="106" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">4964</td><td width="133" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">5067</td><td width="85" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">103</td><td width="142" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">2.08%</td></tr><tr style=";height:16px"><td width="89" style="border-right: 1px solid windowtext; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-left: 1px solid windowtext; border-image: initial; border-top: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">华东</td><td width="60" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">元/吨</td><td width="106" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">4969</td><td width="133" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">4933</td><td width="85" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-36</td><td width="142" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-0.72%</td></tr><tr style=";height:16px"><td width="89" style="border-right: 1px solid windowtext; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-left: 1px solid windowtext; border-image: initial; border-top: none; padding: 0px 7px;">华中</td><td width="60" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">元/吨</td><td width="106" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">5136</td><td width="133" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">5223</td><td width="85" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">87</td><td width="142" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">1.69%</td></tr><tr style=";height:16px"><td width="89" style="border-right: 1px solid windowtext; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-left: 1px solid windowtext; border-image: initial; border-top: none; padding: 0px 7px;">山东</td><td width="60" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">元/吨</td><td width="106" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">4963</td><td width="133" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">4899</td><td width="85" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-64</td><td width="142" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-1.30%</td></tr><tr style=";height:16px"><td width="89" style="border-right: 1px solid windowtext; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-left: 1px solid windowtext; border-image: initial; border-top: none; padding: 0px 7px;">华北</td><td width="60" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">元/吨</td><td width="106" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">4942</td><td width="133" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">4824</td><td width="85" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-118</td><td width="142" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-2.39%</td></tr><tr style=";height:16px"><td width="89" style="border-right: 1px solid windowtext; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-left: 1px solid windowtext; border-image: initial; border-top: none; padding: 0px 7px;">东北</td><td width="60" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">元/吨</td><td width="106" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">4842</td><td width="133" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">4607</td><td width="85" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-235</td><td width="142" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-4.85%</td></tr><tr style=";height:16px"><td width="89" style="border-right: 1px solid windowtext; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-left: 1px solid windowtext; border-image: initial; border-top: none; padding: 0px 7px;">西北</td><td width="60" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">元/吨</td><td width="106" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">4598</td><td width="133" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">4581</td><td width="85" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-17</td><td width="142" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-0.37%</td></tr><tr style=";height:16px"><td width="89" style="border-right: 1px solid windowtext; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-left: 1px solid windowtext; border-image: initial; border-top: none; padding: 0px 7px;">西南</td><td width="60" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">元/吨</td><td width="106" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">5338</td><td width="133" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">5193</td><td width="85" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-145</td><td width="142" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-2.71%</td></tr><tr style=";height:16px"><td width="89" style="border-right: 1px solid windowtext; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-left: 1px solid windowtext; border-image: initial; border-top: none; padding: 0px 7px;">CP丙烷</td><td width="60" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">美元/吨</td><td width="106" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">610</td><td width="133" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">609</td><td width="85" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-1</td><td width="142" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">-0.14%</td></tr><tr style=";height:16px"><td width="89" style="border-right: 1px solid windowtext; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-left: 1px solid windowtext; border-image: initial; border-top: none; padding: 0px 7px;">CP丁烷</td><td width="60" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">美元/吨</td><td width="106" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">613</td><td width="133" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">613</td><td width="85" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">0</td><td width="142" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid windowtext; border-right: 1px solid windowtext; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">0.00%</td></tr></tbody></table>数据来源：隆众资讯<img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/12/1652311.png" title="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬" alt="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬"/><img src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/12/1652312.png" title="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬" alt="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬"/>数据来源：隆众资讯2024年上半年国内液化气市场走势相对平缓，相较于往年振幅较小，民用气价格振幅不足10%，醚后碳四价格振幅15%，远小于去年同期水平。2024年上半年国内民用气均价为4902元/吨，较去年同期跌0.34%，醚后碳四均价为5327元/吨，较去年同期跌9.07%。液化气作为价格调整频繁的产品，今年上半年一改往昔跌宕起伏的行情进入窄幅整理状态。上半年醚后碳四市场1-4月震荡向上，而5月之后进入向下通道。一季度供应充足以及传统春节影响，价格呈现持续低位震荡格局。二季度初期供需基本面收紧，春节主营炼厂检修以及终端汽油需求回升等提振，醚后碳四市场短暂摆脱低迷进入上行通道。但5月以后，终端需求减弱以及供应端恢复等，供需基本面转向宽松，且深加工装置利润欠佳，醚后碳四价格迅速进入下行通道。2、国产供应——检修损失量减少且外放量增多商品量同比有增<img src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/12/1652313.png" title="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬" alt="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬"/>数据来源：隆众资讯据隆众资讯统计，预计2024年上半年中国液化气商品量为1425.57万吨，同比增加36.66万吨或2.64%，环比增加1.15万吨或0.08%。供应量最低出现在4月份，为227万吨左右，因3月份开始春季检修开启，多数炼厂集中于4月份检修，5-6月份随着炼厂检修结束，供应量逐步回升。2024年春季检修集中，但整体来看供应量同比有增，主要因为检修企业损失量低于去年同期；另外，上半年有几套乙烯装置出现故障，导致液化气自用量减少从而增加市场投放量，商品量增加。 3、进出口——化工消费增长进口量同比增加明显表2 2024年1-6月液化气进出口量对比表单位：万吨<table width="100%" width="100"><tbody><tr style=";height:20px" class="firstRow"><td width="16" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">项目</td><td width="23" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">2023年1-6月</td><td width="23" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">2024年1-6月</td><td width="15" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">涨跌值</td><td width="21" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: none; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">同比涨跌幅</td></tr><tr style=";height:20px"><td width="16" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">进口量</td><td width="23" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">1560.72 </td><td width="23" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">1705.67 </td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">144.95 </td><td width="21" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">9.29%</td></tr><tr style=";height:20px"><td width="16" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">出口量</td><td width="23" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">45.50 </td><td width="23" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">47.64 </td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">2.14 </td><td width="21" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">4.70%</td></tr></tbody></table>数据来源：隆众资讯<img src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/12/1652314.png" title="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬" alt="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬"/>数据来源：隆众资讯2024年1-6月国内液化气累计进口量预计在1705.67万吨，同比涨幅9.29%。与去年同期相比，一季度进口量增加，主要支撑原因是3-4月份国内有多套PDH装置有投产或复工计划；另外，由于原油表现向好， 2024年上半年日本石脑油与丁烷到岸价的价差均值接近60美元/吨，液化气与石脑油相比经济效益突出，裂解装置对液化气需求量也增加，因此化工需求表现较好，进口商接货心态积极。<img src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/12/1652315.png" title="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬" alt="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬"/>数据来源：隆众资讯2024年1-6月E国内液化气累积出口量47.64万吨，同比增幅4.71%。其中四月份出口量增幅较大，主要原因是进口气内贸利润倒挂严重，而目标市场东南亚地区深加工发展迅速，带动化工需求增长，进口商转出口贸易获利空间较大，因此出口水平增加。4.消费市场----需求增长点在化工领域<img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/12/1652316.png" title="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬" alt="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬"/>数据来源：隆众资讯2024年1-6月，我国液化气表观消费量4253.64万吨，同比增加187.52万吨，增幅4.61%。燃烧需求随着城镇管道天然气覆盖率提升逐步下降，同时，各地商业餐饮、人员密集等服务场所加快推进瓶装气改革，液化气在商业中的用量也有一定程度萎缩。需求的主要增长点在化工领域，上半年国内有多套PDH新装置投产，集中在华东、山东地区，但前期因进口成本较高导致装置利润长时间倒挂，部分企业停工避险开工率持续走低并在4月触底，二季度随着利润好转开工率得以提升；另外，部分异丁烷脱氢、混合烷烃脱氢装置在3-5月例行检修，而后陆续恢复，整体来看，丙烷、丁烷需求先降后增；烯烃方面虽无新装置投产，但去年多家企业投产后装置运行平稳，醚后碳四消费量同比增长10.86%。第二部分：下半年液化气行业分析预测1、新产能投产且检修减少供应预期增加表3 下半年液化气商品量预测表单位：万吨<table width="100%" width="100"><tbody><tr style=";height:39px" class="firstRow"><td width="17" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">项目</td><td width="19" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">2023年7-12月</td><td width="23" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">2024年7-12月E</td><td width="19" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">同比涨跌值</td><td width="19" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: none; background: rgb(2, 57, 133); padding: 0px 7px;">同比涨跌幅</td></tr><tr style=";height:20px"><td width="17" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">商品量</td><td width="19" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">　1424.42</td><td width="23" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">　1540</td><td width="19" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); border-right: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">115.58　</td><td width="19" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;">8.11%　</td></tr></tbody></table>数据来源：隆众资讯据隆众资讯统计，预计2024年下半年中国液化气商品量为1540万吨左右，同比增加115.58万吨或8.11%，环比增加114.43万吨或8.03%。2024年下半年检修减少，因检修带来的损失量下降明显；另外，裕龙石化、大榭石化等新装置有开工计划，或将有液化气资源外放。2、燃烧及化工需求预期均有提升<img src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/12/1652317.png" title="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬" alt="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬"/>数据来源：隆众资讯下半年，燃烧需求随着夏季结束将逐步向旺季过渡，消费能力或呈现出先弱后强趋势，但替代品竞争压力仍在且随着“瓶改管”工作的有序推进，下半年部分地区改革完成后商用液化气占比将进一步萎缩，液化气需求变化仍重点关注化工方向。下半年，烯烃及烷烃深加工方面均有新装置投产，尤其是PDH有多套新装置投产计划，预计新增产能在400万吨以上，集中在华东地区，但盈利能力决定装置开工情况，下半年进口成本预计先降后增，装置利润或随着成本变化呈现出先强后弱态势，开工率低点预计在四季度；烯烃方面山东一套烷基化计划投产，带动醚后碳四消费量提升，不过因其投产时间在四季度，对总需求贡献较小。综合预计，下半年化工需求将有增长，预计增幅10%左右，国内表观消费量预计将达到4448.00万吨，环比增长4.57%，同比增幅3.84%3、下半年需求逐步提升趋势或先抑后扬<img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/07/12/1652318.png" title="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬" alt="2024液化石油气半年度分析：上半年基本面主导趋势平缓，下半年行情或先抑后扬"/>2024年下半年，预计国内液化气市场走势或呈现先抑后扬趋势，三季度筑底之后逐步反弹，价格在四季度触顶，市场运行重心或高于上半年。但考虑后期或出现阶段性的供需失衡，液化气上涨幅度受限。市场驱动因素主要围绕国际市场走势和供需面的变化。2024年下半年，国际原油预期向上趋势对国内液化气市场形成支撑，同时国际液化气市场也存有向好预期，国际市场将会对国内液化气价格形成有力支撑。预计民用气均价主流区间或在4600-5500元/吨，醚后碳四主流区间或在5200-6000元/吨。  </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：刘娜 0533-7026172 资讯监督：艾博 0533-7027187 资讯投诉：李倩 0533-7026993 </article> <article class="content-block 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