World’s crises can lead to interconnected polycrisis

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This is the result of a new paper authored by an international team of scientists, including PIK Director Johan Rockström. The researchers establish a substantive definition for a polycrisis and deliver a theoretical framework to better understand and address the entangled driving mechanisms behind contemporary global crises.</p><p>The researchers behind the study, published in the journal Global Sustainability, define a global polycrisis as ‘the causal entanglement of crises in multiple global systems in ways that significantly degrade humanity’s prospects.’ Global crises arise when short-term and fast-moving triggers, such as political uprisings, price spikes or climatic extreme events, combine with slower and more enduring stresses such as growing socio-economic inequalities or climate warming. These developments can tip a global system such as food production, global security or financial markets out of its balance and into crisis. Interconnected with other troubled global systems, a polycrisis can emerge, which the authors argue should be understood and resolved as a whole rather than in isolation.</p><p>The authors identify three causal mechanisms that can link multiple global systems and produce synchronized crises. The resilience of one or more global systems can be affected by “common stresses”, the first mechanism. For example, an aging population can pose a challenge to both healthcare systems and the economy, as workforce shrinks and healthcare costs rise. “Domino effects”, as the second mechanism, occur when a crisis in one system affects the stresses in another, or causes a trigger event that pushes another system into crisis. For instance, the Covid-19 pandemic intensified the stress of socio-economic inequality, while prices for services and goods rose. Finally, stresses in one system may causally interact with a stress in a second system, which could then affect the stress in the first system. These “inter-systemic feedbacks” can dampen or further escalate the crises.</p><p>The authors emphasize the importance of addressing interconnected global crises as a whole, rather than treating them as isolated events. They also highlight the need for structural changes in global systems to mitigate the effects of interacting crises and to pave the path towards more sustainable futures.</p><p><a class="button-link-style" href="https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2024.1">View the study</a></p></div> <div class="mt-15 lb-wg--no_bd mr-15 dp-bl"> <span><a href="https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/covid-19-climate-change-armed-conflicts-world2019s-crises-can-lead-to-interconnected-polycrisis">Read the original story here</a></span> </div> <section data-vf-google-analytics-region="undrr-editors-links" class="st-mlt gp-related-info-container"> <h2 class="field-group-title" > Editors' recommendations </h2> <ul > <li class="field--item"><a href="/news/summary-report-17-19-may-2023-high-level-meeting-midterm-review-sendai-framework">Summary report, 17–19 May 2023: High-Level Meeting on the Midterm Review of the Sendai Framework</a></li> <li class="field--item"><a href="/news/new-un-university-report-warns-about-risk-tipping-points-irreversible-impacts-people-and">New UN University report warns about risk tipping points with irreversible impacts on people and planet</a></li> <li class="field--item"><a href="/news/climate-network-analysis-helps-pinpoint-regions-higher-risk-extreme-weather">Climate network analysis helps pinpoint regions at higher risk of extreme weather</a></li> <li class="field--item"><a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/global-transboundary-climate-risk-report">The global transboundary climate risk report</a></li> </ul> </section> <section data-vf-google-analytics-region="undrr-explore-further" class="st-mlt gp-keywords-container"> <h2 class="field-group-title" > Explore further </h2> <div class="mb-10"> <span class="field--item field-label-above">Hazards</span> <sapn class="field--item st-tag--spl"><a href="/hazard/epidemic-pandemic" hreflang="en">Epidemic and Pandemic</a></sapn> </div> <div class="mb-10"> <span class="field--item field-label-above">Themes</span> <span class="field--item st-tag--spl"><a href="/themes/climate-change" hreflang="en">Climate change</a></span> <span class="field--item st-tag--spl"><a href="/themes/systemic-risk" hreflang="en">Systemic risk</a></span> </div> </section> </div> <div class="col-xs-12 col-md-3 layout-right"> <section data-mg-share-buttons></section> <section data-vf-google-analytics-region="domain-badge" class="domain-badges-container"></section> </div> </div> </div> </article> </section> <section id="block-pwcontentbottomtext" class="block block-simple-block block-simple-blockpw-content-bottom-text clearfix"> <p class="field--name-body | info-box container">Please note: Content is displayed as last posted by a PreventionWeb community member or editor. 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