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srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/99/Question_book-new.svg/75px-Question_book-new.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/99/Question_book-new.svg/100px-Question_book-new.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="512" data-file-height="399" /></a></span></div></td><td class="mbox-text"><div class="mbox-text-span">This article <b>needs additional citations for <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Verifiability" title="Wikipedia:Verifiability">verification</a></b>.<span class="hide-when-compact"> Please help <a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Financial_forecast" title="Special:EditPage/Financial forecast">improve this article</a> by <a href="/wiki/Help:Referencing_for_beginners" title="Help:Referencing for beginners">adding citations to reliable sources</a>. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed.<br /><small><span class="plainlinks"><i>Find sources:</i> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.google.com/search?as_eq=wikipedia&q=%22Financial+forecast%22">"Financial forecast"</a> – <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.google.com/search?tbm=nws&q=%22Financial+forecast%22+-wikipedia&tbs=ar:1">news</a> <b>·</b> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.google.com/search?&q=%22Financial+forecast%22&tbs=bkt:s&tbm=bks">newspapers</a> <b>·</b> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.google.com/search?tbs=bks:1&q=%22Financial+forecast%22+-wikipedia">books</a> <b>·</b> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%22Financial+forecast%22">scholar</a> <b>·</b> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.jstor.org/action/doBasicSearch?Query=%22Financial+forecast%22&acc=on&wc=on">JSTOR</a></span></small></span> <span class="date-container"><i>(<span class="date">May 2009</span>)</i></span><span class="hide-when-compact"><i> (<small><a href="/wiki/Help:Maintenance_template_removal" title="Help:Maintenance template removal">Learn how and when to remove this message</a></small>)</i></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table> <p>A <b>financial forecast</b> is an estimate of future financial outcomes for a <a href="/wiki/Company" title="Company">company</a> or <a href="/wiki/Corporate_finance#Investment_and_project_valuation" title="Corporate finance">project</a>, usually applied in <a href="/wiki/Budget#Corporate_budget" title="Budget">budgeting</a>, <a href="/wiki/Capital_budgeting" title="Capital budgeting">capital budgeting</a> and / or <a href="/wiki/Valuation_(finance)" title="Valuation (finance)">valuation</a>. Depending on context, the term may also refer to listed company (quarterly) <a href="/wiki/Earnings_guidance" title="Earnings guidance">earnings guidance</a>. For a <a href="/wiki/Category:Economics_lists_by_country" title="Category:Economics lists by country">country</a> or <a href="/wiki/Economy" title="Economy">economy</a>, see <a href="/wiki/Economic_forecast" class="mw-redirect" title="Economic forecast">Economic forecast</a>. </p><p>Typically, using historical internal accounting and sales data, in addition to external <a href="/wiki/Market_(economics)#Types_of_markets" title="Market (economics)">industry data</a> and <a href="/wiki/Economic_indicators" class="mw-redirect" title="Economic indicators">economic indicators</a>, a financial forecast will be the analyst's <a href="/wiki/Financial_modeling#Accounting" title="Financial modeling">modeled prediction of company outcomes</a> in financial terms over a given time period. For the components / steps of business modeling here, see <a href="/wiki/Outline_of_finance#Financial_modeling" title="Outline of finance">Outline of finance § Financial modeling</a>. </p><p>Arguably, the key aspect of preparing a financial forecast is <a href="/wiki/Revenue_management#Forecasting" title="Revenue management">predicting revenue</a>; future costs, <a href="/wiki/Fixed_costs" class="mw-redirect" title="Fixed costs">fixed</a> and <a href="/wiki/Variable_costs" class="mw-redirect" title="Variable costs">variable</a>, as well as capital, can then be estimated as a function of sales via <a href="/wiki/Financial_analysis#Method" title="Financial analysis">"common-sized analysis"</a> - where relationships are derived from historical <a href="/wiki/Financial_ratios" class="mw-redirect" title="Financial ratios">financial ratios</a> and other accounting relationships.<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> At the same time, the resultant line items must talk to the business' operations:- in general, growth in revenue will require corresponding increases in <a href="/wiki/Working_capital" title="Working capital">working capital</a>, <a href="/wiki/Fixed_asset" title="Fixed asset">fixed assets</a> (see, here, <a href="/wiki/Owner_earnings" title="Owner earnings">owner earnings</a>) and associated financing; and in the long term, profitability (and other financial ratios) should tend to the industry average;<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> see <a href="/wiki/Valuation_using_discounted_cash_flows#Determine_cash_flow_for_each_forecast_period" title="Valuation using discounted cash flows">Valuation using discounted cash flows § Determine cash flow for each forecast period</a> for more detailed discussion, and other considerations; also <a href="/wiki/Cash_flow_forecasting" title="Cash flow forecasting">Cash flow forecasting</a>. </p><p>There is an extensive literature on the accuracy of <a href="/wiki/Securities_research" title="Securities research">analyst forecasts</a> of revenue, profit and <a href="/wiki/Share_price#Behaviour_of_share_prices" title="Share price">share price developments</a> of companies. In general, this literature shows that <a href="/wiki/Financial_analyst#Securities_firms" title="Financial analyst">analysts</a> do not produce better forecasts than simple forecasting models.<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> (Additional to the above outline, for financial forecasts, analysts often also use specific financial historical information, such as the 52-week high of stock prices, to augment their analysis of stock prices.<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>) </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Financial_forecast&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://aibd.unica.it/research">"Research • AIBD Unica"</a>. <i>aibd.unica.it</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2023-05-10</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=aibd.unica.it&rft.atitle=Research+%E2%80%A2+AIBD+Unica&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Faibd.unica.it%2Fresearch&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFinancial+forecast" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-2">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222" /><cite id="CITEREFDarmawan" class="citation book cs1">Darmawan, Ari. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.prasadcpa.com/blog/how-to-do-financial-forecasting/"><i>Hospitality-Management-Accounting</i></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Hospitality-Management-Accounting&rft.aulast=Darmawan&rft.aufirst=Ari&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.prasadcpa.com%2Fblog%2Fhow-to-do-financial-forecasting%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AFinancial+forecast" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-3">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Hein Schreuder and Jan Klaassen (1984), Confidential Revenue and Profit Forecasts by Management and Financial Analysts: Evidence form The Netherlands, The Accoounting Review, vol. 59, no. 1, January 1984)</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-4">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Stotz, Andrew, An Empirical Study of Financial Analysts Earnings Forecast Accuracy (May 29, 2016). Available at SSRN: <a rel="nofollow" class="external free" href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=2943146">https://ssrn.com/abstract=2943146</a> or <a rel="nofollow" class="external free" href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2943146">http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2943146</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-5">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222" /><cite id="CITEREFLowTan2016" class="citation journal cs1">Low, R.K.Y.; Tan, E. (2016). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:406166/UQ406166_OA.pdf">"The Role of Analysts' Forecasts in the Momentum Effect"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <i>International Review of Financial Analysis</i>. <b>48</b>: <span class="nowrap">67–</span>84. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.irfa.2016.09.007">10.1016/j.irfa.2016.09.007</a>.</cite><span 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