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Bayesian control</title> <meta name="description" content="Search results for: multivariate Bayesian control"> <meta name="keywords" content="multivariate Bayesian control"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, minimum-scale=1, maximum-scale=1, user-scalable=no"> <meta charset="utf-8"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon" rel="shortcut icon"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/static/plugins/bootstrap-4.2.1/css/bootstrap.min.css" rel="stylesheet"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/static/plugins/fontawesome/css/all.min.css" rel="stylesheet"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/static/css/site.css?v=150220211555" rel="stylesheet"> </head> <body> <header> <div class="container"> <nav class="navbar navbar-expand-lg navbar-light"> <a class="navbar-brand" href="https://waset.org"> <img src="https://cdn.waset.org/static/images/wasetc.png" alt="Open Science Research Excellence" title="Open Science Research Excellence" /> </a> <button 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action="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search"> <div id="custom-search-input"> <div class="input-group"> <i class="fas fa-search"></i> <input type="text" class="search-query" name="q" placeholder="Author, Title, Abstract, Keywords" value="multivariate Bayesian control"> <input type="submit" class="btn_search" value="Search"> </div> </div> </form> </div> </div> <div class="row mt-3"> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Commenced</strong> in January 2007</div> </div> </div> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Frequency:</strong> Monthly</div> </div> </div> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Edition:</strong> International</div> </div> </div> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Paper Count:</strong> 11564</div> </div> </div> </div> <h1 class="mt-3 mb-3 text-center" style="font-size:1.6rem;">Search results for: multivariate Bayesian control</h1> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11564</span> An Optimal Bayesian Maintenance Policy for a Partially Observable System Subject to Two Failure Modes</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Akram%20Khaleghei%20Ghosheh%20Balagh">Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Viliam%20Makis"> Viliam Makis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Leila%20Jafari"> Leila Jafari</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed and illustrated by a numerical example. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=partially%20observable%20system" title="partially observable system">partially observable system</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=hidden%20Markov%20model" title=" hidden Markov model"> hidden Markov model</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=competing%20risks" title=" competing risks"> competing risks</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=multivariate%20Bayesian%20control" title=" multivariate Bayesian control"> multivariate Bayesian control</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/12740/an-optimal-bayesian-maintenance-policy-for-a-partially-observable-system-subject-to-two-failure-modes" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/12740.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">457</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11563</span> Optimal Bayesian Control of the Proportion of Defectives in a Manufacturing Process</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Viliam%20Makis">Viliam Makis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Farnoosh%20Naderkhani"> Farnoosh Naderkhani</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Leila%20Jafari"> Leila Jafari</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In this paper, we present a model and an algorithm for the calculation of the optimal control limit, average cost, sample size, and the sampling interval for an optimal Bayesian chart to control the proportion of defective items produced using a semi-Markov decision process approach. Traditional p-chart has been widely used for controlling the proportion of defectives in various kinds of production processes for many years. It is well known that traditional non-Bayesian charts are not optimal, but very few optimal Bayesian control charts have been developed in the literature, mostly considering finite horizon. The objective of this paper is to develop a fast computational algorithm to obtain the optimal parameters of a Bayesian p-chart. The decision problem is formulated in the partially observable framework and the developed algorithm is illustrated by a numerical example. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bayesian%20control%20chart" title="Bayesian control chart">Bayesian control chart</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=semi-Markov%20decision%20process" title=" semi-Markov decision process"> semi-Markov decision process</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=quality%20control" title=" quality control"> quality control</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=partially%20observable%20process" title=" partially observable process"> partially observable process</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/49751/optimal-bayesian-control-of-the-proportion-of-defectives-in-a-manufacturing-process" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/49751.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">319</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11562</span> Spatial Time Series Models for Rice and Cassava Yields Based on Bayesian Linear Mixed Models</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Panudet%20Saengseedam">Panudet Saengseedam</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Nanthachai%20Kantanantha"> Nanthachai Kantanantha</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bayesian%20method" title="Bayesian method">Bayesian method</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=linear%20mixed%20model" title=" linear mixed model"> linear mixed model</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=multivariate%20conditional%20autoregressive%20model" title=" multivariate conditional autoregressive model"> multivariate conditional autoregressive model</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=spatial%20time%20series" title=" spatial time series"> spatial time series</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/11875/spatial-time-series-models-for-rice-and-cassava-yields-based-on-bayesian-linear-mixed-models" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/11875.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">395</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11561</span> On the Bootstrap P-Value Method in Identifying out of Control Signals in Multivariate Control Chart</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=O.%20Ikpotokin">O. Ikpotokin</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In any production process, every product is aimed to attain a certain standard, but the presence of assignable cause of variability affects our process, thereby leading to low quality of product. The ability to identify and remove this type of variability reduces its overall effect, thereby improving the quality of the product. In case of a univariate control chart signal, it is easy to detect the problem and give a solution since it is related to a single quality characteristic. However, the problems involved in the use of multivariate control chart are the violation of multivariate normal assumption and the difficulty in identifying the quality characteristic(s) that resulted in the out of control signals. The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of non-parametric control chart (the bootstrap approach) for obtaining control limit to overcome the problem of multivariate distributional assumption and the p-value method for detecting out of control signals. Results from a performance study show that the proposed bootstrap method enables the setting of control limit that can enhance the detection of out of control signals when compared, while the p-value method also enhanced in identifying out of control variables. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=bootstrap%20control%20limit" title="bootstrap control limit">bootstrap control limit</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=p-value%20method" title=" p-value method"> p-value method</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=out-of-control%20signals" title=" out-of-control signals"> out-of-control signals</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=p-value" title=" p-value"> p-value</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=quality%20characteristics" title=" quality characteristics"> quality characteristics</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/77853/on-the-bootstrap-p-value-method-in-identifying-out-of-control-signals-in-multivariate-control-chart" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/77853.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">347</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11560</span> An AK-Chart for the Non-Normal Data</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Chia-Hau%20Liu">Chia-Hau Liu</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Tai-Yue%20Wang"> Tai-Yue Wang </a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Traditional multivariate control charts assume that measurement from manufacturing processes follows a multivariate normal distribution. However, this assumption may not hold or may be difficult to verify because not all the measurement from manufacturing processes are normal distributed in practice. This study develops a new multivariate control chart for monitoring the processes with non-normal data. We propose a mechanism based on integrating the one-class classification method and the adaptive technique. The adaptive technique is used to improve the sensitivity to small shift on one-class classification in statistical process control. In addition, this design provides an easy way to allocate the value of type I error so it is easier to be implemented. Finally, the simulation study and the real data from industry are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the propose control charts. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=multivariate%20control%20chart" title="multivariate control chart">multivariate control chart</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=statistical%20process%20control" title=" statistical process control"> statistical process control</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=one-class%20classification%20method" title=" one-class classification method"> one-class classification method</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=non-normal%20data" title=" non-normal data"> non-normal data</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/7485/an-ak-chart-for-the-non-normal-data" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/7485.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">422</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11559</span> The Moment of the Optimal Average Length of the Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Chart for Equally Correlated Variables</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Edokpa%20Idemudia%20Waziri">Edokpa Idemudia Waziri</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Salisu%20S.%20Umar"> Salisu S. Umar</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The Hotellng’s T^2 is a well-known statistic for detecting a shift in the mean vector of a multivariate normal distribution. Control charts based on T have been widely used in statistical process control for monitoring a multivariate process. Although it is a powerful tool, the T statistic is deficient when the shift to be detected in the mean vector of a multivariate process is small and consistent. The Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA) control chart is one of the control statistics used to overcome the drawback of the Hotellng’s T statistic. In this paper, the probability distribution of the Average Run Length (ARL) of the MEWMA control chart when the quality characteristics exhibit substantial cross correlation and when the process is in-control and out-of-control was derived using the Markov Chain algorithm. The derivation of the probability functions and the moments of the run length distribution were also obtained and they were consistent with some existing results for the in-control and out-of-control situation. By simulation process, the procedure identified a class of ARL for the MEWMA control when the process is in-control and out-of-control. From our study, it was observed that the MEWMA scheme is quite adequate for detecting a small shift and a good way to improve the quality of goods and services in a multivariate situation. It was also observed that as the in-control average run length ARL0¬ or the number of variables (p) increases, the optimum value of the ARL0pt increases asymptotically and as the magnitude of the shift σ increases, the optimal ARLopt decreases. Finally, we use the example from the literature to illustrate our method and demonstrate its efficiency. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=average%20run%20length" title="average run length">average run length</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=markov%20chain" title=" markov chain"> markov chain</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=multivariate%20exponentially%20weighted%20moving%20average" title=" multivariate exponentially weighted moving average"> multivariate exponentially weighted moving average</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=optimal%20smoothing%20parameter" title=" optimal smoothing parameter"> optimal smoothing parameter</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/42648/the-moment-of-the-optimal-average-length-of-the-multivariate-exponentially-weighted-moving-average-control-chart-for-equally-correlated-variables" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/42648.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">422</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11558</span> Multivariate Control Chart to Determine Efficiency Measurements in Industrial Processes</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=J.%20J.%20Vargas">J. J. Vargas</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=N.%20Prieto"> N. Prieto</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=L.%20A.%20Toro"> L. A. Toro</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Control charts are commonly used to monitor processes involving either variable or attribute of quality characteristics and determining the control limits as a critical task for quality engineers to improve the processes. Nonetheless, in some applications it is necessary to include an estimation of efficiency. In this paper, the ability to define the efficiency of an industrial process was added to a control chart by means of incorporating a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. In depth, a Bayesian estimation was performed to calculate the posterior probability distribution of parameters as means and variance and covariance matrix. This technique allows to analyse the data set without the need of using the hypothetical large sample implied in the problem and to be treated as an approximation to the finite sample distribution. A rejection simulation method was carried out to generate random variables from the parameter functions. Each resulting vector was used by stochastic DEA model during several cycles for establishing the distribution of each efficiency measures for each DMU (decision making units). A control limit was calculated with model obtained and if a condition of a low level efficiency of DMU is presented, system efficiency is out of control. In the efficiency calculated a global optimum was reached, which ensures model reliability. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=data%20envelopment%20analysis" title="data envelopment analysis">data envelopment analysis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=DEA" title=" DEA"> DEA</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Multivariate%20control%20chart" title=" Multivariate control chart"> Multivariate control chart</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=rejection%20simulation%20method" title=" rejection simulation method"> rejection simulation method</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/37123/multivariate-control-chart-to-determine-efficiency-measurements-in-industrial-processes" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/37123.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">373</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11557</span> Factorization of Computations in Bayesian Networks: Interpretation of Factors</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Linda%20Smail">Linda Smail</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Zineb%20Azouz"> Zineb Azouz</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Given a Bayesian network relative to a set I of discrete random variables, we are interested in computing the probability distribution P(S) where S is a subset of I. The general idea is to write the expression of P(S) in the form of a product of factors where each factor is easy to compute. More importantly, it will be very useful to give an interpretation of each of the factors in terms of conditional probabilities. This paper considers a semantic interpretation of the factors involved in computing marginal probabilities in Bayesian networks. Establishing such a semantic interpretations is indeed interesting and relevant in the case of large Bayesian networks. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bayesian%20networks" title="Bayesian networks">Bayesian networks</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=D-Separation" title=" D-Separation"> D-Separation</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=level%20two%20Bayesian%20networks" title=" level two Bayesian networks"> level two Bayesian networks</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=factorization%20of%20computation" title=" factorization of computation"> factorization of computation</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/18829/factorization-of-computations-in-bayesian-networks-interpretation-of-factors" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/18829.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">529</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11556</span> Optimal Bayesian Chart for Controlling Expected Number of Defects in Production Processes</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=V.%20Makis">V. Makis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=L.%20Jafari"> L. Jafari</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In this paper, we develop an optimal Bayesian chart to control the expected number of defects per inspection unit in production processes with long production runs. We formulate this control problem in the optimal stopping framework. The objective is to determine the optimal stopping rule minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time considering partial information obtained from the process sampling at regular epochs. We prove the optimality of the control limit policy, i.e., the process is stopped and the search for assignable causes is initiated when the posterior probability that the process is out of control exceeds a control limit. An algorithm in the semi-Markov decision process framework is developed to calculate the optimal control limit and the corresponding average cost. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the developed optimal control chart and to compare it with the traditional u-chart. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bayesian%20u-chart" title="Bayesian u-chart">Bayesian u-chart</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=economic%20design" title=" economic design"> economic design</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=optimal%20stopping" title=" optimal stopping"> optimal stopping</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=semi-Markov%20decision%20process" title=" semi-Markov decision process"> semi-Markov decision process</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=statistical%20process%20control" title=" statistical process control"> statistical process control</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/62841/optimal-bayesian-chart-for-controlling-expected-number-of-defects-in-production-processes" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/62841.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">573</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11555</span> A Bayesian Multivariate Microeconometric Model for Estimation of Price Elasticity of Demand</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Jefferson%20Hernandez">Jefferson Hernandez</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Juan%20Padilla"> Juan Padilla</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Estimation of price elasticity of demand is a valuable tool for the task of price settling. Given its relevance, it is an active field for microeconomic and statistical research. Price elasticity in the industry of oil and gas, in particular for fuels sold in gas stations, has shown to be a challenging topic given the market and state restrictions, and underlying correlations structures between the types of fuels sold by the same gas station. This paper explores the Lotka-Volterra model for the problem for price elasticity estimation in the context of fuels; in addition, it is introduced multivariate random effects with the purpose of dealing with errors, e.g., measurement or missing data errors. In order to model the underlying correlation structures, the Inverse-Wishart, Hierarchical Half-t and LKJ distributions are studied. Here, the Bayesian paradigm through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for model estimation is considered. Simulation studies covering a wide range of situations were performed in order to evaluate parameter recovery for the proposed models and algorithms. Results revealed that the proposed algorithms recovered quite well all model parameters. Also, a real data set analysis was performed in order to illustrate the proposed approach. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=price%20elasticity" title="price elasticity">price elasticity</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=volume" title=" volume"> volume</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=correlation%20structures" title=" correlation structures"> correlation structures</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bayesian%20models" title=" Bayesian models"> Bayesian models</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/122666/a-bayesian-multivariate-microeconometric-model-for-estimation-of-price-elasticity-of-demand" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/122666.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">165</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11554</span> Fast Bayesian Inference of Multivariate Block-Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) Models for Large Data</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Carlos%20Gonzales">Carlos Gonzales</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Zaida%20Quiroz"> Zaida Quiroz</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Marcos%20Prates"> Marcos Prates</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Several spatial variables collected at the same location that share a common spatial distribution can be modeled simultaneously through a multivariate geostatistical model that takes into account the correlation between these variables and the spatial autocorrelation. The main goal of this model is to perform spatial prediction of these variables in the region of study. Here we focus on a geostatistical multivariate formulation that relies on sharing common spatial random effect terms. In particular, the first response variable can be modeled by a mean that incorporates a shared random spatial effect, while the other response variables depend on this shared spatial term, in addition to specific random spatial effects. Each spatial random effect is defined through a Gaussian process with a valid covariance function, but in order to improve the computational efficiency when the data are large, each Gaussian process is approximated to a Gaussian random Markov field (GRMF), specifically to the block nearest neighbor Gaussian process (Block-NNGP). This approach involves dividing the spatial domain into several dependent blocks under certain constraints, where the cross blocks allow capturing the spatial dependence on a large scale, while each individual block captures the spatial dependence on a smaller scale. The multivariate geostatistical model belongs to the class of Latent Gaussian Models; thus, to achieve fast Bayesian inference, it is used the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. The good performance of the proposed model is shown through simulations and applications for massive data. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Block-NNGP" title="Block-NNGP">Block-NNGP</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=geostatistics" title=" geostatistics"> geostatistics</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=gaussian%20process" title=" gaussian process"> gaussian process</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=GRMF" title=" GRMF"> GRMF</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=INLA" title=" INLA"> INLA</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=multivariate%20models." title=" multivariate models."> multivariate models.</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/170871/fast-bayesian-inference-of-multivariate-block-nearest-neighbor-gaussian-process-nngp-models-for-large-data" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/170871.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">97</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11553</span> A Two-Stage Bayesian Variable Selection Method with the Extension of Lasso for Geo-Referenced Data</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Georgiana%20Onicescu">Georgiana Onicescu</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Yuqian%20Shen"> Yuqian Shen</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Due to the complex nature of geo-referenced data, multicollinearity of the risk factors in public health spatial studies is a commonly encountered issue, which leads to low parameter estimation accuracy because it inflates the variance in the regression analysis. To address this issue, we proposed a two-stage variable selection method by extending the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) to the Bayesian spatial setting, investigating the impact of risk factors to health outcomes. Specifically, in stage I, we performed the variable selection using Bayesian Lasso and several other variable selection approaches. Then, in stage II, we performed the model selection with only the selected variables from stage I and compared again the methods. To evaluate the performance of the two-stage variable selection methods, we conducted a simulation study with different distributions for the risk factors, using geo-referenced count data as the outcome and Michigan as the research region. We considered the cases when all candidate risk factors are independently normally distributed, or follow a multivariate normal distribution with different correlation levels. Two other Bayesian variable selection methods, Binary indicator, and the combination of Binary indicator and Lasso were considered and compared as alternative methods. The simulation results indicated that the proposed two-stage Bayesian Lasso variable selection method has the best performance for both independent and dependent cases considered. When compared with the one-stage approach, and the other two alternative methods, the two-stage Bayesian Lasso approach provides the highest estimation accuracy in all scenarios considered. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Lasso" title="Lasso">Lasso</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bayesian%20analysis" title=" Bayesian analysis"> Bayesian analysis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=spatial%20analysis" title=" spatial analysis"> spatial analysis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=variable%20selection" title=" variable selection"> variable selection</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/105063/a-two-stage-bayesian-variable-selection-method-with-the-extension-of-lasso-for-geo-referenced-data" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/105063.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">143</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11552</span> Introduction of Robust Multivariate Process Capability Indices</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Behrooz%20Khalilloo">Behrooz Khalilloo</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Hamid%20Shahriari"> Hamid Shahriari</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Emad%20Roghanian"> Emad Roghanian</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Process capability indices (PCIs) are important concepts of statistical quality control and measure the capability of processes and how much processes are meeting certain specifications. An important issue in statistical quality control is parameter estimation. Under the assumption of multivariate normality, the distribution parameters, mean vector and variance-covariance matrix must be estimated, when they are unknown. Classic estimation methods like method of moment estimation (MME) or maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) makes good estimation of the population parameters when data are not contaminated. But when outliers exist in the data, MME and MLE make weak estimators of the population parameters. So we need some estimators which have good estimation in the presence of outliers. In this work robust M-estimators for estimating these parameters are used and based on robust parameter estimators, robust process capability indices are introduced. The performances of these robust estimators in the presence of outliers and their effects on process capability indices are evaluated by real and simulated multivariate data. The results indicate that the proposed robust capability indices perform much better than the existing process capability indices. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=multivariate%20process%20capability%20indices" title="multivariate process capability indices">multivariate process capability indices</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=robust%20M-estimator" title=" robust M-estimator"> robust M-estimator</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=outlier" title=" outlier"> outlier</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=multivariate%20quality%20control" title=" multivariate quality control"> multivariate quality control</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=statistical%20quality%20control" title=" statistical quality control"> statistical quality control</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/81586/introduction-of-robust-multivariate-process-capability-indices" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/81586.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">283</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11551</span> Modelling Operational Risk Using Extreme Value Theory and Skew t-Copulas via Bayesian Inference </h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Betty%20Johanna%20Garzon%20Rozo">Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Jonathan%20Crook"> Jonathan Crook</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Fernando%20Moreira"> Fernando Moreira</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=operational%20risk" title="operational risk">operational risk</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=loss%20distribution%20approach" title=" loss distribution approach"> loss distribution approach</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=extreme%20value%20theory" title=" extreme value theory"> extreme value theory</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=copulas" title=" copulas"> copulas</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/19385/modelling-operational-risk-using-extreme-value-theory-and-skew-t-copulas-via-bayesian-inference" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/19385.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">603</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11550</span> Estimating Occupancy in Residential Context Using Bayesian Networks for Energy Management</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Manar%20Amayri">Manar Amayri</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Hussain%20Kazimi"> Hussain Kazimi</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Quoc-Dung%20Ngo"> Quoc-Dung Ngo</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Stephane%20Ploix"> Stephane Ploix</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> A general approach is proposed to determine occupant behavior (occupancy and activity) in residential buildings and to use these estimates for improved energy management. Occupant behaviour is modelled with a Bayesian Network in an unsupervised manner. This algorithm makes use of domain knowledge gathered via questionnaires and recorded sensor data for motion detection, power, and hot water consumption as well as indoor CO₂ concentration. Two case studies are presented which show the real world applicability of estimating occupant behaviour in this way. Furthermore, experiments integrating occupancy estimation and hot water production control show that energy efficiency can be increased by roughly 5% over known optimal control techniques and more than 25% over rule-based control while maintaining the same occupant comfort standards. The efficiency gains are strongly correlated with occupant behaviour and accuracy of the occupancy estimates. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=energy" title="energy">energy</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=management" title=" management"> management</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=control" title=" control"> control</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=optimization" title=" optimization"> optimization</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bayesian%20methods" title=" Bayesian methods"> Bayesian methods</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=learning%20theory" title=" learning theory"> learning theory</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=sensor%20networks" title=" sensor networks"> sensor networks</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=knowledge%20modelling%20and%20knowledge%20based%20systems" title=" knowledge modelling and knowledge based systems"> knowledge modelling and knowledge based systems</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=artificial%20intelligence" title=" artificial intelligence"> artificial intelligence</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=buildings" title=" buildings"> buildings</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/84739/estimating-occupancy-in-residential-context-using-bayesian-networks-for-energy-management" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/84739.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">370</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11549</span> EWMA and MEWMA Control Charts for Monitoring Mean and Variance in Industrial Processes</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=L.%20A.%20Toro">L. A. Toro</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=N.%20Prieto"> N. Prieto</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=J.%20J.%20Vargas"> J. J. Vargas </a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> There are many control charts for monitoring mean and variance. Among these, the X y R, X y S, S2 Hotteling and Shewhart control charts, for mentioning some, are widely used for monitoring mean a variance in industrial processes. In particular, the Shewhart charts are based on the information about the process contained in the current observation only and ignore any information given by the entire sequence of points. Moreover, that the Shewhart chart is a control chart without memory. Consequently, Shewhart control charts are found to be less sensitive in detecting smaller shifts, particularly smaller than 1.5 times of the standard deviation. These kind of small shifts are important in many industrial applications. In this study and effective alternative to Shewhart control chart was implemented. In case of univariate process an Exponentially Moving Average (EWMA) control chart was developed and Multivariate Exponentially Moving Average (MEWMA) control chart in case of multivariate process. Both of these charts were based on memory and perform better that Shewhart chart while detecting smaller shifts. In these charts, information the past sample is cumulated up the current sample and then the decision about the process control is taken. The mentioned characteristic of EWMA and MEWMA charts, are of the paramount importance when it is necessary to control industrial process, because it is possible to correct or predict problems in the processes before they come to a dangerous limit. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=control%20charts" title="control charts">control charts</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=multivariate%20exponentially%20moving%20average%20%28MEWMA%29" title=" multivariate exponentially moving average (MEWMA)"> multivariate exponentially moving average (MEWMA)</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=exponentially%20moving%20average%20%28EWMA%29" title=" exponentially moving average (EWMA)"> exponentially moving average (EWMA)</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=industrial%20control%20process" title=" industrial control process"> industrial control process</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/38377/ewma-and-mewma-control-charts-for-monitoring-mean-and-variance-in-industrial-processes" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/38377.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">354</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11548</span> Bayesian Borrowing Methods for Count Data: Analysis of Incontinence Episodes in Patients with Overactive Bladder</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Akalu%20Banbeta">Akalu Banbeta</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Emmanuel%20Lesaffre"> Emmanuel Lesaffre</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Reynaldo%20Martina"> Reynaldo Martina</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Joost%20Van%20Rosmalen"> Joost Van Rosmalen</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Including data from previous studies (historical data) in the analysis of the current study may reduce the sample size requirement and/or increase the power of analysis. The most common example is incorporating historical control data in the analysis of a current clinical trial. However, this only applies when the historical control dataare similar enough to the current control data. Recently, several Bayesian approaches for incorporating historical data have been proposed, such as the meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) prior and the modified power prior (MPP) both for single control as well as for multiple historical control arms. Here, we examine the performance of the MAP and the MPP approaches for the analysis of (over-dispersed) count data. To this end, we propose a computational method for the MPP approach for the Poisson and the negative binomial models. We conducted an extensive simulation study to assess the performance of Bayesian approaches. Additionally, we illustrate our approaches on an overactive bladder data set. For similar data across the control arms, the MPP approach outperformed the MAP approach with respect to thestatistical power. When the means across the control arms are different, the MPP yielded a slightly inflated type I error (TIE) rate, whereas the MAP did not. In contrast, when the dispersion parameters are different, the MAP gave an inflated TIE rate, whereas the MPP did not.We conclude that the MPP approach is more promising than the MAP approach for incorporating historical count data. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=count%20data" title="count data">count data</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=meta-analytic%20prior" title=" meta-analytic prior"> meta-analytic prior</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=negative%20binomial" title=" negative binomial"> negative binomial</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=poisson" title=" poisson"> poisson</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/150987/bayesian-borrowing-methods-for-count-data-analysis-of-incontinence-episodes-in-patients-with-overactive-bladder" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/150987.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">117</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11547</span> The Effect of Institutions on Economic Growth: An Analysis Based on Bayesian Panel Data Estimation</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Mohammad%20Anwar">Mohammad Anwar</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Shah%20Waliullah"> Shah Waliullah</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> This study investigated panel data regression models. This paper used Bayesian and classical methods to study the impact of institutions on economic growth from data (1990-2014), especially in developing countries. Under the classical and Bayesian methodology, the two-panel data models were estimated, which are common effects and fixed effects. For the Bayesian approach, the prior information is used in this paper, and normal gamma prior is used for the panel data models. The analysis was done through WinBUGS14 software. The estimated results of the study showed that panel data models are valid models in Bayesian methodology. In the Bayesian approach, the effects of all independent variables were positively and significantly affected by the dependent variables. Based on the standard errors of all models, we must say that the fixed effect model is the best model in the Bayesian estimation of panel data models. Also, it was proved that the fixed effect model has the lowest value of standard error, as compared to other models. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bayesian%20approach" title="Bayesian approach">Bayesian approach</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=common%20effect" title=" common effect"> common effect</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fixed%20effect" title=" fixed effect"> fixed effect</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=random%20effect" title=" random effect"> random effect</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Dynamic%20Random%20Effect%20Model" title=" Dynamic Random Effect Model"> Dynamic Random Effect Model</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/161692/the-effect-of-institutions-on-economic-growth-an-analysis-based-on-bayesian-panel-data-estimation" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/161692.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">68</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11546</span> Navigating Uncertainties in Project Control: A Predictive Tracking Framework</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Byung%20Cheol%20Kim">Byung Cheol Kim</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> This study explores a method for the signal-noise separation challenge in project control, focusing on the limitations of traditional deterministic approaches that use single-point performance metrics to predict project outcomes. We detail how traditional methods often overlook future uncertainties, resulting in tracking biases when reliance is placed solely on immediate data without adjustments for predictive accuracy. Our investigation led to the development of the Predictive Tracking Project Control (PTPC) framework, which incorporates network simulation and Bayesian control models to adapt more effectively to project dynamics. The PTPC introduces controlled disturbances to better identify and separate tracking biases from useful predictive signals. We will demonstrate the efficacy of the PTPC with examples, highlighting its potential to enhance real-time project monitoring and decision-making, marking a significant shift towards more accurate project management practices. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=predictive%20tracking" title="predictive tracking">predictive tracking</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=project%20control" title=" project control"> project control</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=signal-noise%20separation" title=" signal-noise separation"> signal-noise separation</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bayesian%20inference" title=" Bayesian inference"> Bayesian inference</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/192188/navigating-uncertainties-in-project-control-a-predictive-tracking-framework" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/192188.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">18</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11545</span> Optimal Maintenance Policy for a Partially Observable Two-Unit System</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Leila%20Jafari">Leila Jafari</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Viliam%20Makis"> Viliam Makis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=G.%20B.%20Akram%20Khaleghei"> G. B. Akram Khaleghei</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In this paper, we present a maintenance model of a two-unit series system with economic dependence. Unit#1, which is considered to be more expensive and more important, is subject to condition monitoring (CM) at equidistant, discrete time epochs and unit#2, which is not subject to CM, has a general lifetime distribution. The multivariate observation vectors obtained through condition monitoring carry partial information about the hidden state of unit#1, which can be in a healthy or a warning state while operating. Only the failure state is assumed to be observable for both units. The objective is to find an optimal opportunistic maintenance policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the partially observable semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm for finding the optimal policy and the minimum average cost is developed and illustrated by a numerical example. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=condition-based%20maintenance" title="condition-based maintenance">condition-based maintenance</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=semi-Markov%20decision%20process" title=" semi-Markov decision process"> semi-Markov decision process</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=multivariate%20Bayesian%20control%20chart" title=" multivariate Bayesian control chart"> multivariate Bayesian control chart</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=partially%20observable%20system" title=" partially observable system"> partially observable system</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=two-unit%20system" title=" two-unit system"> two-unit system</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/9588/optimal-maintenance-policy-for-a-partially-observable-two-unit-system" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/9588.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">459</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11544</span> Regression for Doubly Inflated Multivariate Poisson Distributions</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Ishapathik%20Das">Ishapathik Das</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Sumen%20Sen"> Sumen Sen</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=N.%20Rao%20Chaganty"> N. Rao Chaganty</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Pooja%20Sengupta"> Pooja Sengupta</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Dependent multivariate count data occur in several research studies. These data can be modeled by a multivariate Poisson or Negative binomial distribution constructed using copulas. However, when some of the counts are inflated, that is, the number of observations in some cells are much larger than other cells, then the copula based multivariate Poisson (or Negative binomial) distribution may not fit well and it is not an appropriate statistical model for the data. There is a need to modify or adjust the multivariate distribution to account for the inflated frequencies. In this article, we consider the situation where the frequencies of two cells are higher compared to the other cells, and develop a doubly inflated multivariate Poisson distribution function using multivariate Gaussian copula. We also discuss procedures for regression on covariates for the doubly inflated multivariate count data. For illustrating the proposed methodologies, we present a real data containing bivariate count observations with inflations in two cells. Several models and linear predictors with log link functions are considered, and we discuss maximum likelihood estimation to estimate unknown parameters of the models. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=copula" title="copula">copula</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Gaussian%20copula" title=" Gaussian copula"> Gaussian copula</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=multivariate%20distributions" title=" multivariate distributions"> multivariate distributions</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=inflated%20distributios" title=" inflated distributios"> inflated distributios</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/105114/regression-for-doubly-inflated-multivariate-poisson-distributions" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/105114.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">156</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11543</span> Bayesian Approach for Moving Extremes Ranked Set Sampling</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Said%20Ali%20Al-Hadhrami">Said Ali Al-Hadhrami</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Amer%20Ibrahim%20Al-Omari"> Amer Ibrahim Al-Omari</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In this paper, Bayesian estimation for the mean of exponential distribution is considered using Moving Extremes Ranked Set Sampling (MERSS). Three priors are used; Jeffery, conjugate and constant using MERSS and Simple Random Sampling (SRS). Some properties of the proposed estimators are investigated. It is found that the suggested estimators using MERSS are more efficient than its counterparts based on SRS. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bayesian" title="Bayesian">Bayesian</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=efficiency" title=" efficiency"> efficiency</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=moving%20extreme%20ranked%20set%20sampling" title=" moving extreme ranked set sampling"> moving extreme ranked set sampling</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=ranked%20set%20sampling" title=" ranked set sampling"> ranked set sampling</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/30733/bayesian-approach-for-moving-extremes-ranked-set-sampling" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/30733.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">513</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11542</span> Bayesian Reliability of Weibull Regression with Type-I Censored Data</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Al%20Omari%20Moahmmed%20Ahmed">Al Omari Moahmmed Ahmed </a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In the Bayesian, we developed an approach by using non-informative prior with covariate and obtained by using Gauss quadrature method to estimate the parameters of the covariate and reliability function of the Weibull regression distribution with Type-I censored data. The maximum likelihood seen that the estimators obtained are not available in closed forms, although they can be solved it by using Newton-Raphson methods. The comparison criteria are the MSE and the performance of these estimates are assessed using simulation considering various sample size, several specific values of shape parameter. The results show that Bayesian with non-informative prior is better than Maximum Likelihood Estimator. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=non-informative%20prior" title="non-informative prior">non-informative prior</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bayesian%20method" title=" Bayesian method"> Bayesian method</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=type-I%20censoring" title=" type-I censoring"> type-I censoring</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Gauss%20quardature" title=" Gauss quardature"> Gauss quardature</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/18728/bayesian-reliability-of-weibull-regression-with-type-i-censored-data" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/18728.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">503</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11541</span> Supplier Risk Management: A Multivariate Statistical Modelling and Portfolio Optimization Based Approach for Supplier Delivery Performance Development </h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Jiahui%20Yang">Jiahui Yang</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=John%20Quigley"> John Quigley</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Lesley%20Walls"> Lesley Walls</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=decision%20making" title="decision making">decision making</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=empirical%20bayesian" title=" empirical bayesian"> empirical bayesian</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=portfolio%20optimization" title=" portfolio optimization"> portfolio optimization</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=supplier%20development" title=" supplier development"> supplier development</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=supply%20chain%20management" title=" supply chain management"> supply chain management</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/89731/supplier-risk-management-a-multivariate-statistical-modelling-and-portfolio-optimization-based-approach-for-supplier-delivery-performance-development" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/89731.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">288</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11540</span> Identification of Bayesian Network with Convolutional Neural Network</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Mohamed%20Raouf%20Benmakrelouf">Mohamed Raouf Benmakrelouf</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Wafa%20Karouche"> Wafa Karouche</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Joseph%20Rynkiewicz"> Joseph Rynkiewicz</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In this paper, we propose an alternative method to construct a Bayesian Network (BN). This method relies on a convolutional neural network (CNN classifier), which determinates the edges of the network skeleton. We train a CNN on a normalized empirical probability density distribution (NEPDF) for predicting causal interactions and relationships. We have to find the optimal Bayesian network structure for causal inference. Indeed, we are undertaking a search for pair-wise causality, depending on considered causal assumptions. In order to avoid unreasonable causal structure, we consider a blacklist and a whitelist of causality senses. We tested the method on real data to assess the influence of education on the voting intention for the extreme right-wing party. We show that, with this method, we get a safer causal structure of variables (Bayesian Network) and make to identify a variable that satisfies the backdoor criterion. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bayesian%20network" title="Bayesian network">Bayesian network</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=structure%20learning" title=" structure learning"> structure learning</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=optimal%20search" title=" optimal search"> optimal search</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=convolutional%20neural%20network" title=" convolutional neural network"> convolutional neural network</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=causal%20inference" title=" causal inference"> causal inference</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/151560/identification-of-bayesian-network-with-convolutional-neural-network" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/151560.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">176</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11539</span> Optimized Dynamic Bayesian Networks and Neural Verifier Test Applied to On-Line Isolated Characters Recognition</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Redouane%20Tlemsani">Redouane Tlemsani</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Redouane"> Redouane</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Belkacem%20Kouninef"> Belkacem Kouninef</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Abdelkader%20Benyettou"> Abdelkader Benyettou </a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In this paper, our system is a Markovien system which we can see it like a Dynamic Bayesian Networks. One of the major interests of these systems resides in the complete training of the models (topology and parameters) starting from training data. The Bayesian Networks are representing models of dubious knowledge on complex phenomena. They are a union between the theory of probability and the graph theory in order to give effective tools to represent a joined probability distribution on a set of random variables. The representation of knowledge bases on description, by graphs, relations of causality existing between the variables defining the field of study. The theory of Dynamic Bayesian Networks is a generalization of the Bayesians networks to the dynamic processes. Our objective amounts finding the better structure which represents the relationships (dependencies) between the variables of a dynamic bayesian network. In applications in pattern recognition, one will carry out the fixing of the structure which obliges us to admit some strong assumptions (for example independence between some variables). <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Arabic%20on%20line%20character%20recognition" title="Arabic on line character recognition">Arabic on line character recognition</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=dynamic%20Bayesian%20network" title=" dynamic Bayesian network"> dynamic Bayesian network</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=pattern%20recognition" title=" pattern recognition"> pattern recognition</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=networks" title=" networks "> networks </a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/34593/optimized-dynamic-bayesian-networks-and-neural-verifier-test-applied-to-on-line-isolated-characters-recognition" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/34593.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">617</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11538</span> Facility Anomaly Detection with Gaussian Mixture Model</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Sunghoon%20Park">Sunghoon Park</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Hank%20Kim"> Hank Kim</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Jinwon%20An"> Jinwon An</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Sungzoon%20Cho"> Sungzoon Cho</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Internet of Things allows one to collect data from facilities which are then used to monitor them and even predict malfunctions in advance. Conventional quality control methods focus on setting a normal range on a sensor value defined between a lower control limit and an upper control limit, and declaring as an anomaly anything falling outside it. However, interactions among sensor values are ignored, thus leading to suboptimal performance. We propose a multivariate approach which takes into account many sensor values at the same time. In particular Gaussian Mixture Model is used which is trained to maximize likelihood value using Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The number of Gaussian component distributions is determined by Bayesian Information Criterion. The negative Log likelihood value is used as an anomaly score. The actual usage scenario goes like a following. For each instance of sensor values from a facility, an anomaly score is computed. If it is larger than a threshold, an alarm will go off and a human expert intervenes and checks the system. A real world data from Building energy system was used to test the model. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=facility%20anomaly%20detection" title="facility anomaly detection">facility anomaly detection</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=gaussian%20mixture%20model" title=" gaussian mixture model"> gaussian mixture model</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=anomaly%20score" title=" anomaly score"> anomaly score</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=expectation%20maximization%20algorithm" title=" expectation maximization algorithm "> expectation maximization algorithm </a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/46957/facility-anomaly-detection-with-gaussian-mixture-model" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/46957.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">272</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11537</span> Intelligent Computing with Bayesian Regularization Artificial Neural Networks for a Nonlinear System of COVID-19 Epidemic Model for Future Generation Disease Control</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Tahir%20Nawaz%20Cheema">Tahir Nawaz Cheema</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Dumitru%20Baleanu"> Dumitru Baleanu</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Ali%20Raza"> Ali Raza</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In this research work, we design intelligent computing through Bayesian Regularization artificial neural networks (BRANNs) introduced to solve the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases (Covid-19). The dynamical transmission is due to the interaction of people and its mathematical representation based on the system's nonlinear differential equations. The generation of the dataset of the Covid-19 model is exploited by the power of the explicit Runge Kutta method for different countries of the world like India, Pakistan, Italy, and many more. The generated dataset is approximately used for training, testing, and validation processes for every frequent update in Bayesian Regularization backpropagation for numerical behavior of the dynamics of the Covid-19 model. The performance and effectiveness of designed methodology BRANNs are checked through mean squared error, error histograms, numerical solutions, absolute error, and regression analysis. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=mathematical%20models" title="mathematical models">mathematical models</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=beysian%20regularization" title=" beysian regularization"> beysian regularization</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=bayesian-regularization%20backpropagation%20networks" title=" bayesian-regularization backpropagation networks"> bayesian-regularization backpropagation networks</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=regression%20analysis" title=" regression analysis"> regression analysis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=numerical%20computing" title=" numerical computing"> numerical computing</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/145835/intelligent-computing-with-bayesian-regularization-artificial-neural-networks-for-a-nonlinear-system-of-covid-19-epidemic-model-for-future-generation-disease-control" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/145835.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">147</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11536</span> Multivariate Analysis of Spectroscopic Data for Agriculture Applications</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Asmaa%20M.%20Hussein">Asmaa M. Hussein</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Amr%20Wassal"> Amr Wassal</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Ahmed%20Farouk%20Al-Sadek"> Ahmed Farouk Al-Sadek</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=A.%20F.%20Abd%20El-Rahman"> A. F. Abd El-Rahman</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In this study, a multivariate analysis of potato spectroscopic data was presented to detect the presence of brown rot disease or not. Near-Infrared (NIR) spectroscopy (1,350-2,500 nm) combined with multivariate analysis was used as a rapid, non-destructive technique for the detection of brown rot disease in potatoes. Spectral measurements were performed in 565 samples, which were chosen randomly at the infection place in the potato slice. In this study, 254 infected and 311 uninfected (brown rot-free) samples were analyzed using different advanced statistical analysis techniques. The discrimination performance of different multivariate analysis techniques, including classification, pre-processing, and dimension reduction, were compared. Applying a random forest algorithm classifier with different pre-processing techniques to raw spectra had the best performance as the total classification accuracy of 98.7% was achieved in discriminating infected potatoes from control. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Brown%20rot%20disease" title="Brown rot disease">Brown rot disease</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=NIR%20spectroscopy" title=" NIR spectroscopy"> NIR spectroscopy</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=potato" title=" potato"> potato</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=random%20forest" title=" random forest"> random forest</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/127918/multivariate-analysis-of-spectroscopic-data-for-agriculture-applications" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/127918.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">190</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">11535</span> Fault Tree Analysis and Bayesian Network for Fire and Explosion of Crude Oil Tanks: Case Study</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=B.%20Zerouali">B. Zerouali</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=M.%20Kara"> M. Kara</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=B.%20Hamaidi"> B. Hamaidi</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=H.%20Mahdjoub"> H. Mahdjoub</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=S.%20Rouabhia"> S. Rouabhia</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In this paper, a safety analysis for crude oil tanks to prevent undesirable events that may cause catastrophic accidents. The estimation of the probability of damage to industrial systems is carried out through a series of steps, and in accordance with a specific methodology. In this context, this work involves developing an assessment tool and risk analysis at the level of crude oil tanks system, based primarily on identification of various potential causes of crude oil tanks fire and explosion by the use of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), then improved risk modelling by Bayesian Networks (BNs). Bayesian approach in the evaluation of failure and quantification of risks is a dynamic analysis approach. For this reason, have been selected as an analytical tool in this study. Research concludes that the Bayesian networks have a distinct and effective method in the safety analysis because of the flexibility of its structure; it is suitable for a wide variety of accident scenarios. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=bayesian%20networks" title="bayesian networks">bayesian networks</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=crude%20oil%20tank" title=" crude oil tank"> crude oil tank</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fault%20tree" title=" fault tree"> fault tree</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=prediction" title=" prediction"> prediction</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=safety" title=" safety"> safety</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/30636/fault-tree-analysis-and-bayesian-network-for-fire-and-explosion-of-crude-oil-tanks-case-study" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/30636.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">660</span> </span> </div> </div> <ul class="pagination"> <li class="page-item disabled"><span class="page-link">&lsaquo;</span></li> <li class="page-item active"><span class="page-link">1</span></li> <li class="page-item"><a class="page-link" href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=multivariate%20Bayesian%20control&page=2">2</a></li> <li class="page-item"><a class="page-link" href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=multivariate%20Bayesian%20control&page=3">3</a></li> <li class="page-item"><a class="page-link" href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=multivariate%20Bayesian%20control&page=4">4</a></li> <li class="page-item"><a class="page-link" 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