Mysteel周报：全国带钢价格宽幅下跌预计下周或震荡运行（10.12-10.18）-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>带钢</a>市场价格大幅下跌，各地价格降幅在140-220元/吨。随着钢厂端利润修复，复产节奏加快，市场供应增加。叠加本周黑色系期货盘面震荡下行，市场交投氛围一般，下游客户依旧按需采购为主，整体成交一般。</p> <p>一、【价格方面】</p> <p>本周全国热轧带钢市场价格宽幅下跌，市场需求不及预期，回归现实后现货价格随之下调。本周宽窄价差缩小，北方市场价格反应较快，南北价差迅速扩大，不过南方需求偏弱，带钢资源流通依旧困难。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/18/a4b899d42a534f64ace0ae17bf27dce5.png" alt="" width="600" height="553.8461538461539" /></p> <p>二、【数据方面】</p> <p>1、供应：</p> <p><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>全国重点热轧带钢生产企业本周开工率62.04%，周环比上升3.70个百分点；月环比上升5.56个百分点；产能利用率为64.40%，周环比上升4.37个百分点；月环比上升6.42个百分点；本周钢厂实际产量为190.66万吨，周环比增加12.95万吨；月环比增加19.01万吨；钢厂厂内库存为30.61万吨，周环比增加2.26万吨；月环比减少15.66万吨。本周热轧带钢供应增加，目前钢厂生产利润尚可，复产节奏或继续加快。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/18/e01a9b42d198480281ccb11767e61289.png" alt="" width="522" height="293" /></p> <p>2、库存：</p> <p>18日本周全国热轧带钢主要市场样本库存总量46.79万吨，较上周减少2.93万吨，较上月同期减少13.29万吨，较去年同期减少22.42万吨。唐山热轧带钢样本库存25.36万吨，周比减少1.97万吨，较去年同期减少15.6万吨。本周全国热轧带钢库存继续降库，整体库存水平低于近些年同期水平。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/18/bee0049422c3429e99534954dd12a990.png" alt="" width="600" height="270.7233065442021" /></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/18/078924f5cc244f90a8e775767a1356d1.png" alt="" width="522" height="295" /></p> <p>3、需求：</p> <p>Mysteel直缝<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010903-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焊管</a>生产企业（29家）周度调研数据显示，本周焊管产量33.32万吨，周环比增加0.42万吨，产能利用率为59.4%，周环比增长0.74%，开工率为78.3%，周环比下降0.92%，厂内库存为32.47万吨，周环比增加0.53万吨，原料库存为63.23万吨，周环比增加5.58万吨；<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010905-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镀锌管</a>（28家）产量为25.03万吨，周环比减少0.35万吨，产能利用率为61.7%，周环比下降0.86%，开工率为85.79%，周环比增长1.09%，厂内库存为42.16万吨，周环比减少0.35万吨，周<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0204-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锌</a>锭用量为4949吨，周环比减少163吨。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/18/d4f1d79fc2714829bf9f6763b763421d.png" alt="" width="505" height="288" /></p> <p>三、【分析及预测】</p> <p>唐山145带钢：本周唐山145带钢价格大幅下调，截止发稿，首唐宝生2.5*145-252mm带钢出厂报价3390元/吨，较上周降110元/吨，整体成交偏弱。本周初黑色系期货横盘宽幅震荡，市场以观望为主，145带钢厂接单量开始下滑，周中受期货盘面大幅走低影响，市场信心受挫，145带钢厂商报价跟降，整体交投氛围转淡，下游管厂接单量也随之下滑，大多采取刚需采购的策略。目前145带钢生产厂家产能利用率保持在近几个月高位，供应量较上周维持不变，145带钢厂排产日期缩短。综上所述，预计下周145带钢市场价格或窄幅震荡运行。</p> <p>唐山355带钢：近期黑色系期货盘面震荡下行，虽然商家积极出货兑现利润，但下游接单情况依旧无明显改善，依旧刚需采购为主，现货价格随之下跌，市场整体成交一般。钢厂前期接单较好，目前多以直发下游交货为主，不过随着供应逐渐恢复，或一定程度压制价格反弹。目前唐山市场带钢社会库存为25.36万吨，周环比降1.97万吨，库存依旧处于近年低位。从心态来看，多数商家对后市持观望情绪。综上所述，预计下周唐山市场带钢价格或震荡偏弱运行。</p> <p>天津：本周天津热轧带钢市场价格趋弱，整体成交一般。本周黑色系期货震荡下行，市场心态回落，天津热轧带钢交投情绪有所转弱。下游受价格迅速走弱影响，补货愈加谨慎，不过天津市场热轧带钢资源紧张，部分规格缺货，因此商家挺价意愿依旧较高。此外，目前钢厂订单充足，短期对价格仍有支撑。加之宏观仍有利好预期，因此天津热轧带钢市场价格或易涨难跌。</p> <p>邯郸：本周邯郸地区热轧带钢市场价格大幅下调，成交偏弱。截止发稿，邯郸市场3.5*468-590*C规格带钢高义报价3430-3440元/吨，周环比下降160元/吨。本周黑色系期货大幅走低，邯郸市场带钢现货价格继续下调。下游厂商情绪偏谨慎，主要以刚需采购为主。本周邯郸市场带钢资源到货一般，天铁、晋钢有少量到货，库存小幅累积。叠加宏观仍有利好预期，综合预计，短期邯郸带钢价格或窄幅趋强运行。</p> <p>胜芳：本周胜芳热轧带钢价格大幅下跌，整体成交一般。据本周二统计样本数据显示，本网监测的霸州<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镀锌</a>带钢整体开工率39.00%，周环比-1.00%；本周镀锌带钢产能利用率为46.02%，周环比-0.79%。近期黑色系期货震荡下行，叠加下游<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010104-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>冷轧</a>镀锌企业接单不畅，现货价格跟随下跌。目前宏观上进入观察期，商家对后市态度偏观望。综上，预计下周胜芳带钢价格或震荡趋弱运行。</p> <p>无<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0207-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锡</a>：本周无锡热轧带钢市场价格震荡下行，截止发稿，磐石建龙2.5*232-355mm带钢报价3520元/吨，周比降100元/吨。本周宏观政策刺激情绪遇冷，市场回归基本面运行，厂商恐高情绪影响下，价格弱势运行。无锡本地带钢库存加速消化，本地钢厂检修，外地资源到货有限，短期出现缺规格现象。无锡热卷资源库存偏高，卷带替代情况明显。目前南北价差走扩，北方资源符合南下条件。基于午后成交未见好转，预计下周无锡市场带钢价格跟随原料价格波动运行，南北价差或有修复预期，价格或有止跌企稳可能。</p> <p>宁波：本周宁波热轧带钢价格继续反弹，整体成交有限。随着供应端逐渐减少，钢材市场供需矛盾有所缓和，主流市场钢材价格持续反弹，提振整个市场信心，宁波热轧带钢价格跟随主流市场价格调整。此外，目前宁波热轧带钢市场现货资源紧张，商家报价坚挺为主。综上，预计短期宁波热轧带钢市场价格将维持易涨难跌。</p> <p>莱芜：本周莱芜热轧带钢市场价格大幅下调，整体成交一般。目前钢厂供应逐渐恢复，虽然近期社会库存有所增加，但整体库存依旧处于偏低水平。周初市场商家挺价意愿较高，但随着黑色系盘面走弱，下游需求较差，现货价格随之跟随下调。目前市场商家心态偏谨慎，对后市持观望情绪，短期内兑现利润为主。综合来看，预计下周莱芜带钢价格或继续震荡趋弱运行。</p> <p>乐从：本周乐从带钢价格震荡下行，整体成交一般。本周价格主导因素仍在在于政策集中于防⻛险和保⺠⽣，对房价和新开⼯均⽆明显提振。从基本⾯来看随着时间推移留给政策落实的旺季窗⼝期缩短，⽽供给压⼒愈发明朗。不过本周铁⽔复产速度偏慢，板材供需较为健康，⽭盾不及三季度明显，向下空间有限。随着房地产利空释放，后续基建和制造业板块政策预期要好于地产，盘⾯跌出空间后有反弹机会，预计下周乐从带钢价格或震荡运行。</p> <p>西南：本周云南带钢价格震荡下行，整体成交一般。产量小幅回升，库存降幅收窄，表需小幅回升，数据偏弱。近日钢厂利润有所回落，但仍处于年内较高水平，钢厂生产积极。现货市场供需压力有所加大，部分钢厂库存出现累积。综合来看，预计下周昆明带钢价格或震荡整理运行。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block 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Mysteel周报：全国带钢价格宽幅下跌 预计下周或震荡运行（10.12-10.18）-我的钢铁网

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