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历史新低！研究揭示2023年南极海冰减少成因—论文—科学网
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float: right"> 选择字号：<span onclick="showsize(12)" style="background-color: #587c19; color: #fff; font-size: 12px; cursor: pointer">小</span> <span onclick="showsize(14)" style="background-color: #587c19; color: #fff; font-size: 12px; cursor: pointer">中</span> <span onclick="showsize(16)" style="background-color: #587c19; color: #fff; font-size: 12px; cursor: pointer"> 大</span> </div> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <div id="content1" style="width: 94%; font: 14px 宋体; text-align: left; line-height: 24px; word-wrap: break-word"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td height="20"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" valign="middle" class="style1" style="font-size: 13px; color: #333333; font-family: 宋体; line-height: 20px"> <b></b></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" class="style1" style="font-size: 22px; color: #587c19; font-family: 黑体; line-height: 30px"> 历史新低！研究揭示2023年南极海冰减少成因</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" valign="middle" class="style1" style="font-size: 13px; color: #333333; font-family: 宋体; line-height: 20px;"> <b></b></td> </tr> </table> <p> </p> <p style=";; margin: 0px 0px 26px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-all;"> 在全球气候变化背景下，南极海冰范围自2016年以来三次打破历史最低值记录。2023年2月21日，南极海冰范围跌至夏季最低值179万平方公里，比气候态平均值（1981-2010）低38%，再次打破2022年夏季的最小值。</p> <p style=";; margin: 0px 0px 26px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-all;"> 近日，中山大学/南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室（珠海）教授杨清华团队与比利时新鲁汶大学等科研人员合作，综合利用卫星观测数据、ERA5大气再分析数据以及NEMO3.6-LIM3区域冰海耦合模式，深入分析了2023年夏季海冰极小值的成因。研究成果发表于《通讯-地球与环境》。</p> <p style=";; margin: 0px 0px 26px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-all;"> 南极海冰是极地气候系统的重要组成部分，它不仅影响大气和海洋界面的通量交换，还参与南大洋复杂的大气–海冰–海洋相互作用。</p> <p style=";; margin: 0px 0px 26px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-all;"> 论文第一作者、中山大学大气科学学院博士生王今菲表示，2022年到2023年期间，南极海冰范围全年持续偏低，特别是2022年12月海冰异常快速减退，并在2023年2月呈现几乎环极的负海冰异常。</p> <p style=";; margin: 0px 0px 26px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-all;"> “<span style=";; text-align: justify;">过去40余年里，南极海冰范围先呈现出稳定的缓慢增长趋势，随后又迅速减少。</span>近年南极海冰范围整体变小，但各个区域的海冰并不是均匀变小，其年际变率呈现增长趋势，其中威德尔海区域夏季海冰变率显著增强。”杨清华说。</p> <p style=";; margin: 0px 0px 26px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-all;"> 王今菲指出，这种情况主要由空气温度正异常引起的平流作用导致，“特别是在阿蒙森-罗斯海区域，春季深厚的阿蒙森海低压和强南风共同作用，导致大量海冰向北输送，并触发了近岸强烈的冰-反照率反馈机制，加速了海冰融化”。</p> <p style=";; margin: 0px 0px 26px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-all;"> 杨清华表示，研究强调了阿蒙森-罗斯海区域的海冰变化对解释南极夏季海冰最小值的重要性，“此次事件受到前一年的夏季海冰历史极小值的影响，但和人类活动的关系尚不清晰，仍需进一步的归因分析”。</p> <p style=";; margin: 0px 0px 26px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-all;"> 据杨清华介绍，南极海冰融化和冻结导致海水温度、盐度变化以及绕极深层水位置的调整，影响了冰架底部融化和海平面升高；同时，海冰能够反射大部分太阳辐射，直接影响南半球高纬度天气和气候系统，进而影响南极冰盖物质平衡及海平面变化。海平面的升高会影响低洼地区的居住环境和农业生产，增加洪水和风暴潮的风险，同时也影响渔业、旅游业和其他经济活动，特别是在强依赖海洋资源的地区。同时，南极海冰对南大洋生物地球化学过程也极为重要，其季节性生消会影响到磷虾、企鹅、海豹和鲸等诸多生物构成的南极生态系统，海冰的减少会影响这些物种的生活习性和繁殖环境，进而影响整个生态系统的平衡。</p> <p style=";; margin: 0px 0px 26px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-all;"> 杨清华表示，该研究不仅强调了大气和海洋多因素过程在近年南极夏季海冰达到历史最低值中的重要作用，也为理解南极海冰变化提供了新的科学依据，为全球气候变化的应对策略提供了重要参考。</p> <p style=";; margin: 0px 0px 26px; text-align: justify; word-break: break-all;"> 那么，南极海冰未来还会持续变小吗？杨清华指出，在增强的海冰年际变率背景下，还无法准确预估南极海冰未来的变化。目前，南大洋海温不断增长，海温对海冰的影响可能变大，但由于气候模式对于南极海冰的模拟能力尚有很大不足，目前仍无法给出定论。未来，团队将继续探索更多关于气候系统相互作用的深层次机制，持续改进模式对南极海冰的模拟和预测性能，以更全面地理解南极海冰变化的多尺度变异性，并更准确地预测海冰<span class="errorText">极端</span>气候事件。（来源：中国科学报 高雅丽）</p> <p class="lastPadding" style=";; 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