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data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="dark" data-module-background="deep-blue" data-module-category="AnchoredHero" class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__SfYQE"><style></style><div data-component="mdc-c-background-image" class="mdc-c-bg-image___GJdv1_2734c4f background-image-article-default ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__parallax-container__fZ7Iq"></div><div class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__gradient__Uu21n"></div><div class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__wrapper-content__XOe9C"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-1 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-10"><div><h1 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-2 mck-u-animation-slide-down ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__heading__bv6rL"><div>Eating out(side): Restaurant dining in the next normal</div></h1></div><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10 mck-u-animation-blur-in-800 ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__description__sjoe9"><div><time datetime="2020-08-28T00:00:00Z">August 28, 2020</time> | Article</div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-9"><span> </span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/stacey-haas" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_2734c4f mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Stacey Haas</span></a> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Anne Kronschnabl </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">John R. Moran<span> </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Pepijn van Kesteren</span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">Our survey of US consumers suggests that indoor dining in restaurants may not return to precrisis levels for months—or possibly even years. That means full-service restaurant operators need a new economic model.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"><div class="mck-o-sidebar mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Findustries%2Fretail%2Four%20insights%2Feating%20out%20side%20restaurant%20dining%20in%20the%20next%20normal%2Feating-outside-restaurant-dining-in-the-next-normal.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="eating-outside-restaurant-dining-in-the-next-normal" data-layer-report-name="eating-outside-restaurant-dining-in-the-next-normal>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (7 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>Months after COVID-19</strong> first wreaked havoc on lives and livelihoods around the world, much of the US restaurant industry faces a deeply uncertain near-term future. In particular, many full-service restaurant operators have had to adjust and readjust their plans multiple times, and are unsure when—or if—they’ll be able to reopen fully, given surges in COVID-19 cases in several regions. Even where indoor dining is permitted, consumers continue to be wary, as our recent survey of US consumers indicates.</p> <p>In such an unpredictable environment, how should restaurant operators plan ahead? What should their priorities be? We recommend two focus areas: investing in the customer experience and developing a model that acknowledges the restaurant industry’s new economics.</p> <h2>A start-and-stop recovery</h2> <p>Following the initial US lockdowns, in mid-March, sit-down dining disappeared almost entirely across the country. Overall US restaurant-industry revenues plunged by more than 50 percent through April. Yet some chains adapted right away: many <a href="/industries/retail/our-insights/delivering-when-it-matters-quick-service-restaurants-in-coronavirus-times">quick-service restaurants</a> (QSRs) and casual-dining establishments rapidly pivoted to off-premise channels—primarily drive-through, delivery, and takeout—and were buoyed by a relatively swift, if uneven, recovery in May and June. Then, as states across the country reopened, street-side and sidewalk dining blossomed in some cities. Consumers, tired of cooking at home and eager for some return to normalcy, started eating out again. By mid-June, overall restaurant sales had recovered roughly 25 percentage points.</p> <p>But the boost in business turned out to be short lived. The number of COVID-19 cases climbed in numerous states, and governors reissued shutdown orders. For several segments of the restaurant industry—particularly full-service dining—the recovery has slowed (Exhibit 1).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our%20insights/eating%20out%20side%20restaurant%20dining%20in%20the%20next%20normal/svgz-covid19-dining-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Trends in sit-down dining show that the on-premises recovery has slowed." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our%20insights/eating%20out%20side%20restaurant%20dining%20in%20the%20next%20normal/svgz-covid19-dining-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>In several states, the prospects for a full, unconditional reopening look dim. The unpredictability of the virus’s spread means that some <a href="/industries/retail/our-insights/how-restaurants-can-thrive-in-the-next-normal">US restaurants</a> may not have the option of welcoming guests into their dining rooms for some time to come. Local authorities could impose or extend dining restrictions for months. Even in places where restaurants are reopening in limited forms—for example, at partial capacity—some operators may decide that reopening at all would be unprofitable. Furthermore, even when restaurants are permitted to reopen fully, consumers may still not feel safe dining in indoor public spaces.</p>  <h2>Anxious consumers</h2> <p>A McKinsey Pulse Survey conducted in June among more than 1,000 US adults who had visited QSRs or casual-dining restaurants within the past year indicates that most consumers are anxious about sit-down dining in restaurants. More than 80 percent of survey respondents reported medium to high anxiety levels about the idea of returning to dine-in restaurants—in fact, more than half said they would be highly anxious. This is in sharp contrast with consumer sentiment regarding drive-through dining, about which only 16 percent of respondents reported high anxiety (Exhibit 2).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our%20insights/eating%20out%20side%20restaurant%20dining%20in%20the%20next%20normal/svgz-covid19-dining-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="More than 80 percent of consumers are anxious about indoor restaurant dining." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our%20insights/eating%20out%20side%20restaurant%20dining%20in%20the%20next%20normal/svgz-covid19-dining-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>The survey asked consumers to rate their level of anxiety regarding three types of dine-in interactions:</p> <ul> <li><em>close or active interactions with other customers</em>, either directly or indirectly—for example, standing or sitting near other customers, touching surfaces or items that other customers have touched, and using restroom facilities</li> <li><em>close or active interactions with employees</em>—for example, when servers take orders and when they bring food to the table</li> <li><em>distant or passive interactions with other people</em>—for example, when entering and leaving restaurants and when waiting to be seated</li> </ul> <p>The first type—close or active interactions with other customers—is the biggest contributor to consumer anxiety (Exhibit 3).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 3</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our%20insights/eating%20out%20side%20restaurant%20dining%20in%20the%20next%20normal/svgz-covid19-dining-ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="The interactions that cause the most anxiety involve touching shared surfaces or proximity to other customers." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our%20insights/eating%20out%20side%20restaurant%20dining%20in%20the%20next%20normal/svgz-covid19-dining-ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>These survey results align with those of a similar McKinsey survey focused on consumer anxiety in grocery shopping, which showed that people were much more anxious about interacting with other shoppers than with store employees. Respondents said that shopping for fresh produce—touching fruits and vegetables that many other people may have touched—was one of the main drivers of anxiety during grocery-store trips.</p>  <p>By implementing new <a href="/sitecore/service/notfound.aspx?item=web%3a%7bddd44e4a-8104-45da-a61c-48a7d5bece2a%7d%40en">hygiene and safety measures</a>, restaurants can likely attract customers who feel only low or medium levels of anxiety about indoor restaurant dining. Putting high-anxiety customers at ease, however, will prove more difficult. Some high-anxiety survey respondents indicated that they don’t plan to return to dine-in restaurants “<a href="/industries/life-sciences/our-insights/on-pins-and-needles-will-covid-19-vaccines-save-the-world">until a vaccine is available</a> and the virus is contained” or “until at least 2021.”</p> <h2>Implications for restaurant operators</h2> <p>The takeaway: restaurants can’t count on indoor dining to return to precrisis sales levels anytime soon. In a scenario where the virus resurges in several US states, even if government interventions are partially effective, casual- and fine-dining restaurant revenues might not fully recover until 2023 or later (Exhibit 4). This scenario—localized virus recurrences and moderately effective policy responses—is one of <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/safeguarding-our-lives-and-our-livelihoods-the-imperative-of-our-time">nine economic-impact scenarios</a> that our colleagues developed in March; it appears to be the one currently playing out across the country.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 4</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our%20insights/eating%20out%20side%20restaurant%20dining%20in%20the%20next%20normal/svgz-covid19-dining-ex4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="The recovery for casual and fine dining is projected to take years." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our%20insights/eating%20out%20side%20restaurant%20dining%20in%20the%20next%20normal/svgz-covid19-dining-ex4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Against this backdrop, what concrete steps can restaurant operators take to protect people’s health and safety while also strengthening the business? In our view, two areas are of prime importance:</p> <ol> <li>making the guest experience as safe and positive as possible—and broadly communicating new health and safety measures—so that customers feel comfortable returning to restaurants</li> <li>developing a new long-term economic model, including partial on-premises dining and an expansion of off-premises solutions</li> </ol>  <h3>Invest in the guest experience</h3> <p>Of course, restaurants that decide to offer indoor dining should adhere to the latest guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as well as all standards and directives from state and local authorities. But it will also be crucial to introduce measures that reduce the anxiety of patrons. We surveyed consumers about what interventions would most reduce their anxiety about in-restaurant dining. As Exhibit 5 shows, the top anxiety-reducing interventions are increased sanitization, particularly disinfecting dining surfaces between customers; limited occupancy to maintain physical distancing; and requiring employees to wear personal protective equipment. It’s crucial for restaurants not only to implement these measures but also to communicate them broadly and make them highly visible to customers.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 5</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our%20insights/eating%20out%20side%20restaurant%20dining%20in%20the%20next%20normal/svgz-covid19-dining-ex5.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Rigorous sanitization, limited occupancy, and personal protective equipment for employees are the most effective anxiety-reducing interventions." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our%20insights/eating%20out%20side%20restaurant%20dining%20in%20the%20next%20normal/svgz-covid19-dining-ex5.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <h3>Develop a new economic model</h3> <p>The COVID-19 crisis has changed the restaurant industry’s economics, perhaps irreversibly. Restaurants must therefore come up with a new economic model to sustain the business over a longer period of time than they might have initially planned for. For most restaurants, the key elements of such a model will include several of the following:</p>  <ul> <li>optimizing carryout, curbside, and drive-through operations, using the lens of <a href="/industries/retail/our-insights/adapting-to-the-next-normal-in-retail-the-customer-experience-imperative">customer experience</a>—for instance, by reevaluating staffing, traffic flow, food temperature, and food packaging</li> <li>making the delivery business profitable—for instance, by negotiating longer-term agreements with third-party delivery companies, leveraging “ghost” kitchens, and developing in-house delivery capabilities in denser markets</li> <li>re-architecting the menu and pricing to focus on the optimal daypart mix and occasions, as well as finding the right balance of key value items, specials or limited-time offers, and high-margin items (such as appetizers, sides, desserts, and beverages)</li> <li>introducing new ways of providing value to customers—for example, by offering grocery products, take-home items, or shipped product bundles through online food marketplaces (such as Goldbelly or Zingerman’s)</li> <li>redefining and deepening customer relationships through direct digital communication, loyalty programs, and <a href="/industries/retail/our-insights/personalizing-the-customer-experience-driving-differentiation-in-retail">personalization</a></li> <li>rethinking restaurant layout, flow, staffing, and standard operating procedures to align with the new off-premises models, daypart mix, and customer experience</li> <li>reviewing real-estate strategy in light of major shifts in foot traffic and occupancy costs</li> <li>making longer-term arrangements with suppliers of foodstuffs, packaging and paper goods, restaurant equipment, and other supplies</li> </ul> <div data-module-category="" class="PullQuote_mck-c-pullquote__DbaQ5 mck-o-lg-center"><blockquote data-component="mdc-c-blockquote" class="PullQuote_mck-c-blockquote__6n21p PullQuote_mck-c-blockquote--hide-quotes__CpGpg mdc-c-blockquote mdc-c-blockquote--is-quotes___TozKo_2734c4f"><p>Restaurants must come up with a new economic model to sustain the business over a longer period of time than they might have initially planned for.</p></blockquote></div> <p>No doubt, every restaurant operator has grappled with these issues during the past few months, but in many cases they’ve formulated short-term solutions in the expectation of a relatively rapid recovery. The sooner they acknowledge and plan for the industry’s new longer-term economics, the better their chances of surviving the crisis and thriving in the next normal.</p> <hr/> <p>In light of virus resurgence, anxious consumers, and continuing uncertainty, US restaurant operators have little choice but to become more agile and resilient than they’ve ever had to be. The brief recovery in May and June offers strong evidence that consumers crave the restaurant experience and will return to eating in restaurant dining rooms as soon as they feel it’s safe to do so. In the meantime, operators will need to summon all their resourcefulness and creativity to serve customers profitably.</p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong><a href="/our-people/stacey-haas">Stacey Haas</a></strong> is a partner in McKinsey’s Detroit office; <strong>Anne Kronschnabl</strong> is an associate partner in the New Jersey office, where <strong>Pepijn van Kesteren</strong> is a consultant; and <strong>John R. 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type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"locale":"en","dictionary":{},"sitecoreContext":{"route":{"name":"Eating out side Restaurant dining in the next normal","displayName":"Eating out side Restaurant dining in the next normal","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"2f7e720c-68e4-4c80-9637-fc3d8f4cac6a","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":1,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Eating out(side): Restaurant dining in the next normal"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":"Eating out(side): US restaurants in the next normal"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Our survey of US consumers suggests that indoor dining in restaurants may not return to precrisis levels for months\u0026mdash;or possibly even years. That means full-service restaurant operators need a new economic model."}},"sEODescription":{"value":"Our consumer survey suggests that indoor dining in US restaurants may not return to precrisis levels for months—or possibly years. Operators of full-service establishments need a new economic model."},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2020-08-28T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[DownloadsSidebar]]\n[[MostPopularArticles 5]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMonths after COVID-19\u003c/strong\u003e first wreaked havoc on lives and livelihoods around the world, much of the US restaurant industry faces a deeply uncertain near-term future. In particular, many full-service restaurant operators have had to adjust and readjust their plans multiple times, and are unsure when\u0026mdash;or if\u0026mdash;they\u0026rsquo;ll be able to reopen fully, given surges in COVID-19 cases in several regions. Even where indoor dining is permitted, consumers continue to be wary, as our recent survey of US consumers indicates.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn such an unpredictable environment, how should restaurant operators plan ahead? What should their priorities be? We recommend two focus areas: investing in the customer experience and developing a model that acknowledges the restaurant industry\u0026rsquo;s new economics.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eA start-and-stop recovery\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFollowing the initial US lockdowns, in mid-March, sit-down dining disappeared almost entirely across the country. Overall US restaurant-industry revenues plunged by more than 50 percent through April. Yet some chains adapted right away: many \u003ca href=\"/industries/retail/our-insights/delivering-when-it-matters-quick-service-restaurants-in-coronavirus-times\"\u003equick-service restaurants\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;(QSRs) and casual-dining establishments rapidly pivoted to off-premise channels\u0026mdash;primarily drive-through, delivery, and takeout\u0026mdash;and were buoyed by a relatively swift, if uneven, recovery in May and June. Then, as states across the country reopened, street-side and sidewalk dining blossomed in some cities. Consumers, tired of cooking at home and eager for some return to normalcy, started eating out again. By mid-June, overall restaurant sales had recovered roughly 25 percentage points.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut the boost in business turned out to be short lived. The number of COVID-19 cases climbed in numerous states, and governors reissued shutdown orders. For several segments of the restaurant industry\u0026mdash;particularly full-service dining\u0026mdash;the recovery has slowed (Exhibit 1).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eIn several states, the prospects for a full, unconditional reopening look dim. The unpredictability of the virus\u0026rsquo;s spread means that some \u003ca href=\"/industries/retail/our-insights/how-restaurants-can-thrive-in-the-next-normal\"\u003eUS restaurants\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;may not have the option of welcoming guests into their dining rooms for some time to come. Local authorities could impose or extend dining restrictions for months. Even in places where restaurants are reopening in limited forms\u0026mdash;for example, at partial capacity\u0026mdash;some operators may decide that reopening at all would be unprofitable. Furthermore, even when restaurants are permitted to reopen fully, consumers may still not feel safe dining in indoor public spaces.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros covid]]\n\u003ch2\u003eAnxious consumers\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA McKinsey Pulse Survey conducted in June among more than 1,000 US adults who had visited QSRs or casual-dining restaurants within the past year indicates that most consumers are anxious about sit-down dining in restaurants. More than 80 percent of survey respondents reported medium to high anxiety levels about the idea of returning to dine-in restaurants\u0026mdash;in fact, more than half said they would be highly anxious. This is in sharp contrast with consumer sentiment regarding drive-through dining, about which only 16 percent of respondents reported high anxiety (Exhibit 2).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 2]]\n\u003cp\u003eThe survey asked consumers to rate their level of anxiety regarding three types of dine-in interactions:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eclose or active interactions with other customers\u003c/em\u003e, either directly or indirectly\u0026mdash;for example, standing or sitting near other customers, touching surfaces or items that other customers have touched, and using restroom facilities\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eclose or active interactions with employees\u003c/em\u003e\u0026mdash;for example, when servers take orders and when they bring food to the table\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003edistant or passive interactions with other people\u003c/em\u003e\u0026mdash;for example, when entering and leaving restaurants and when waiting to be seated\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe first type\u0026mdash;close or active interactions with other customers\u0026mdash;is the biggest contributor to consumer anxiety (Exhibit 3).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 3]]\n\u003cp\u003eThese survey results align with those of a similar McKinsey survey focused on consumer anxiety in grocery shopping, which showed that people were much more anxious about interacting with other shoppers than with store employees. Respondents said that shopping for fresh produce\u0026mdash;touching fruits and vegetables that many other people may have touched\u0026mdash;was one of the main drivers of anxiety during grocery-store trips.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Video 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eBy implementing new \u003ca href=\"/sitecore/service/notfound.aspx?item=web%3a%7bddd44e4a-8104-45da-a61c-48a7d5bece2a%7d%40en\"\u003ehygiene and safety measures\u003c/a\u003e, restaurants can likely attract customers who feel only low or medium levels of anxiety about indoor restaurant dining. Putting high-anxiety customers at ease, however, will prove more difficult. Some high-anxiety survey respondents indicated that they don\u0026rsquo;t plan to return to dine-in restaurants \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/industries/life-sciences/our-insights/on-pins-and-needles-will-covid-19-vaccines-save-the-world\"\u003euntil a vaccine is available\u003c/a\u003e and the virus is contained\u0026rdquo; or \u0026ldquo;until at least 2021.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eImplications for restaurant operators\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe takeaway: restaurants can\u0026rsquo;t count on indoor dining to return to precrisis sales levels anytime soon. In a scenario where the virus resurges in several US states, even if government interventions are partially effective, casual- and fine-dining restaurant revenues might not fully recover until 2023 or later (Exhibit 4). This scenario\u0026mdash;localized virus recurrences and moderately effective policy responses\u0026mdash;is one of \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/safeguarding-our-lives-and-our-livelihoods-the-imperative-of-our-time\"\u003enine economic-impact scenarios\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;that our colleagues developed in March; it appears to be the one currently playing out across the country.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 4]]\n\u003cp\u003eAgainst this backdrop, what concrete steps can restaurant operators take to protect people\u0026rsquo;s health and safety while also strengthening the business? In our view, two areas are of prime importance:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003emaking the guest experience as safe and positive as possible\u0026mdash;and broadly communicating new health and safety measures\u0026mdash;so that customers feel comfortable returning to restaurants\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003edeveloping a new long-term economic model, including partial on-premises dining and an expansion of off-premises solutions\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e\n[[Video 2]]\n\u003ch3\u003eInvest in the guest experience\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOf course, restaurants that decide to offer indoor dining should adhere to the latest guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as well as all standards and directives from state and local authorities. But it will also be crucial to introduce measures that reduce the anxiety of patrons. We surveyed consumers about what interventions would most reduce their anxiety about in-restaurant dining. As Exhibit 5 shows, the top anxiety-reducing interventions are increased sanitization, particularly disinfecting dining surfaces between customers; limited occupancy to maintain physical distancing; and requiring employees to wear personal protective equipment. It\u0026rsquo;s crucial for restaurants not only to implement these measures but also to communicate them broadly and make them highly visible to customers.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 5]]\n\u003ch3\u003eDevelop a new economic model\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe COVID-19 crisis has changed the restaurant industry\u0026rsquo;s economics, perhaps irreversibly. Restaurants must therefore come up with a new economic model to sustain the business over a longer period of time than they might have initially planned for. For most restaurants, the key elements of such a model will include several of the following:\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Video 3]]\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eoptimizing carryout, curbside, and drive-through operations, using the lens of \u003ca href=\"/industries/retail/our-insights/adapting-to-the-next-normal-in-retail-the-customer-experience-imperative\"\u003ecustomer experience\u003c/a\u003e\u0026mdash;for instance, by reevaluating staffing, traffic flow, food temperature, and\n food packaging\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003emaking the delivery business profitable\u0026mdash;for instance, by negotiating longer-term agreements with third-party delivery companies, leveraging \u0026ldquo;ghost\u0026rdquo; kitchens, and developing in-house delivery capabilities in denser markets\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003ere-architecting the menu and pricing to focus on the optimal daypart mix and occasions, as well as finding the right balance of key value items, specials or limited-time offers, and high-margin items (such as appetizers, sides, desserts, and beverages)\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eintroducing new ways of providing value to customers\u0026mdash;for example, by offering grocery products, take-home items, or shipped product bundles through online food marketplaces (such as Goldbelly or Zingerman\u0026rsquo;s)\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eredefining and deepening customer relationships through direct digital communication, loyalty programs, and \u003ca href=\"/industries/retail/our-insights/personalizing-the-customer-experience-driving-differentiation-in-retail\"\u003epersonalization\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003erethinking restaurant layout, flow, staffing, and standard operating procedures to align with the new off-premises models, daypart mix, and customer experience\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003ereviewing real-estate strategy in light of major shifts in foot traffic and occupancy costs\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003emaking longer-term arrangements with suppliers of foodstuffs, packaging and paper goods, restaurant equipment, and other supplies\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n[[PullQuote 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eNo doubt, every restaurant operator has grappled with these issues during the past few months, but in many cases they\u0026rsquo;ve formulated short-term solutions in the expectation of a relatively rapid recovery. The sooner they acknowledge and plan for the industry\u0026rsquo;s new longer-term economics, the better their chances of surviving the crisis and thriving in the next normal.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn light of virus resurgence, anxious consumers, and continuing uncertainty, US restaurant operators have little choice but to become more agile and resilient than they\u0026rsquo;ve ever had to be. The brief recovery in May and June offers strong evidence that consumers crave the restaurant experience and will return to eating in restaurant dining rooms as soon as they feel it\u0026rsquo;s safe to do so. In the meantime, operators will need to summon all their resourcefulness and creativity to serve customers profitably.\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"mobileReady":{"boolValue":true},"forClientsOnly":{"boolValue":false},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2020-08-28T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":""},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[{"displayName":"Retail"}]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/stacey-haas\"\u003eStacey Haas\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a partner in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Detroit office; \u003cstrong\u003eAnne Kronschnabl\u003c/strong\u003e is an associate partner in the New Jersey office, where \u003cstrong\u003ePepijn van Kesteren\u003c/strong\u003e is a consultant; and \u003cstrong\u003eJohn R. Moran\u003c/strong\u003e is an associate partner in the Boston office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis article was edited by Monica Toriello, an executive editor in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"A26756C2CD504D4AB075E1BEC32D42C1","name":"Stacey Haas","authorTitle":{"value":"Stacey Haas"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/stacey haas/stacey haas_std_img.jpg","alt":""},"emailLinks":{"value":"Stacey_Haas@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":"https://www.linkedin.com/in/stacey-haas-75489"},"description":{"value":"Works with consumer companies on driving growth through portfolio strategy and innovation"},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"Detroit","displayName":"Detroit"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Senior Partner"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/stacey haas/stacey haas_thumbnail_img.jpg"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/stacey-haas"}}]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"E123C528EEE1450A83E48081DE75C00B","name":"Anne Kronschnabl","authorTitle":{"value":"Anne Kronschnabl"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"F50461142EA3416FB66C7CBA04C72083","name":"John Moran","authorTitle":{"value":"John R. Moran"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"C02E97EC4D0A42419FCAE79444EFD1F7","name":"Pepijn van Kesteren","authorTitle":{"value":"Pepijn van Kesteren"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}}]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"How restaurants can thrive in the next normal"},"url":{"path":"/industries/retail/our-insights/how-restaurants-can-thrive-in-the-next-normal"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"We lay out potential timelines for the US restaurant industry\u0026rsquo;s recovery\u0026mdash;and actions that restaurants should take to cater to consumers\u0026rsquo; new dining needs and preferences."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our insights/how restaurants can thrive in the next normal/how-restaurants-can-thrive-1536x1536.jpg","alt":"How restaurants can thrive in the next normal"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Delivering when it matters: Quick-service restaurants in coronavirus times"},"url":{"path":"/industries/retail/our-insights/delivering-when-it-matters-quick-service-restaurants-in-coronavirus-times"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"The pandemic has hit many quick-service restaurants hard. Here’s how they can respond to the crisis and prepare for what comes next."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our insights/delivering when it matters quick service restaurants in coronavirus times/delivering-1536x1536.jpg","alt":"Delivering when it matters: Quick-service restaurants in coronavirus times"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Understanding and shaping consumer behavior in the next normal"},"url":{"path":"/capabilities/growth-marketing-and-sales/our-insights/understanding-and-shaping-consumer-behavior-in-the-next-normal"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Consumer beliefs and behaviors are changing fast. To keep up with\u0026mdash;and perhaps even influence\u0026mdash;those changes, companies must leverage deep consumer insights."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/marketing and sales/our insights/understanding and shaping consumer behavior in the next normal/understanding-and-shaping-consumer-hero-1536x1536.jpg","alt":"Understanding and shaping consumer behavior in the next normal"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null}]},"useEnhancedAuthors":{"boolValue":false},"acknowledgements":{"value":""},"showSocialShareFooter":{"boolValue":false},"template":{"id":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9"},"hideFromSearchEngines":{"boolValue":false},"heroFiftyFiftyBackground":{"targetItem":null},"backgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"gradientDirection":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Bottom Right"},"value":{"value":"bottom-right"}}},"hideStickySubscriptionBar":{"value":false},"enableRegWall":{"boolValue":false},"timer":{"value":"8"},"regWallHeading":{"value":""},"showGoToHomeLink":{"boolValue":false},"regWallDescription":{"value":""},"isInsightsStorePage":{"boolValue":false},"enableRatingsForArticleBody":{"boolValue":false},"enableRatingsForMostPopular":{"boolValue":false},"selectedModalSubscriptions":{"targetItems":[]},"link1":{"queryString":"","className":"","anchor":"","linkType":"internal","url":"","text":"","targetItem":null},"link2":{"queryString":"","className":"","anchor":"","linkType":"internal","url":"","text":"","targetItem":null},"link3":{"queryString":"","className":"","anchor":"","linkType":"internal","url":"","text":"","targetItem":null},"link4":{"queryString":"","className":"","anchor":"","linkType":"internal","url":"","text":"","targetItem":null},"link5":{"queryString":"","className":"","anchor":"","linkType":"internal","url":"","text":"","targetItem":null},"fullReportPDF":{"name":"Full Report PDF","src":null,"displayName":null,"title":null,"keywords":null,"description":null,"extension":null,"mimeType":null,"size":null,"pageCount":null,"thumbnailImageSrc":""},"fullReportPDFDisplayName":{"value":""},"appendixPDF":{"name":"Appendix PDF","src":null,"displayName":null,"title":null,"keywords":null,"description":null,"extension":null,"mimeType":null,"size":null,"pageCount":null,"thumbnailImageSrc":""},"appendixPDFDisplayName":{"value":""},"articlePDF":{"name":"Article PDF","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our insights/eating out side restaurant dining in the next normal/eating-outside-restaurant-dining-in-the-next-normal.pdf","displayName":"Eating-outside-Restaurant-dining-in-the-next-normal","title":"","keywords":"","description":"","extension":"pdf","mimeType":"application/pdf","size":494159,"pageCount":"7","thumbnailImageSrc":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our insights/eating out side restaurant dining in the next normal/eating-outside-restaurant-dining-in-the-next-normal_thumbnail.jpeg"},"briefingNotePDF":{"name":"Briefing Note PDF","src":null,"displayName":null,"title":null,"keywords":null,"description":null,"extension":null,"mimeType":null,"size":null,"pageCount":null,"thumbnailImageSrc":""},"discussionPapersPDF":{"name":"Discussion Papers PDF","src":null,"displayName":null,"title":null,"keywords":null,"description":null,"extension":null,"mimeType":null,"size":null,"pageCount":null,"thumbnailImageSrc":""},"executiveSummaryPDF":{"name":"Executive Summary PDF","src":null,"displayName":null,"title":null,"keywords":null,"description":null,"extension":null,"mimeType":null,"size":null,"pageCount":null,"thumbnailImageSrc":""},"executiveSummaryPDFDisplayName":{"value":""},"researchPreviewPDF":{"name":"Research Preview PDF","src":null,"displayName":null,"title":null,"keywords":null,"description":null,"extension":null,"mimeType":null,"size":null,"pageCount":null,"thumbnailImageSrc":""},"heroImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our insights/eating out side restaurant dining in the next normal/eating-outside-hero-1536x864.jpg","alt":"Eating out(side): Restaurant dining in the next normal"},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/retail/our insights/eating out side restaurant dining in the next normal/eating-outside-1536x1536.jpg","alt":"Eating out(side): Restaurant dining in the next normal"},"heroImageTopOffset":{"value":""},"headerOverlayOpacity":{"targetItem":null},"heroType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Existing"}},"photoOverlayOpacity":{"targetItem":null},"hideHero":{"boolValue":false},"renderStackedHeroLayoutForMobile":{"boolValue":false},"articleHeroVideoId":{"value":""},"podcastHeroOmnyAudioID":{"value":""},"heroBespokeInteractiveID":{"value":""},"bespokeHeroRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"audio":{"results":[]},"disruptor1up":{"results":[{"mediaID":{"value":"cop"},"title":{"value":"Explore COP29 with McKinsey"},"description":{"value":"Join our series of dynamic virtual events during COP29. 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