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Bitcoin Endgame: 2 Charts You Need To See
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class="BLYp_ current-page"><div class="ef7tZD8z DlCaB" data-testid="locked-top-ad-container" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation" tabindex="-1"></div><main class="_4tKaI MFONZ"><div class="ITdpl KpLaT"><div class="HUZQQ"><div class="_8cjw-SPU fTSKiIOA cB20L uEn4T"><span class="_6Q2IDc-r"><a class="isDg-4PG" href="https://www.forbes.com/digital-assets/" data-ga-track="breadcrumb-L2">Forbes Digital Assets</a></span></div></div><h1 class="dp_VC">Bitcoin Endgame: 2 Charts You Need To See</h1><div class="AhtZ3 CU3md"><div class="ZgVJj"><div class="vDF8R"><div data-testid="truncation-inner" class="_9GOxm"><span style="-webkit-line-clamp:1" class="Ccg9Ib-7 Msqbf CRVMw"><div class="Na3NTglQ _51GWpoAk CF_dd"><span class="ujvJmzbB LfmqX">By</span><a class="_4tin10wS _9xFYp" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/people/clem/" rel="noreferrer" target="_self">Clem Chambers</a><span class="AtUb4gy8 LfmqX DHzQR">, Senior Contributor. </span></div> </span></div></div></div><div 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class="image-embed__placeholder"><progressive-image src="https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/664c7efddbbec70547dba43f/Bitcoin-and-candlestick-chart/960x0.jpg?fit=scale" alt="Bitcoin and candlestick chart" data-height="2330" data-width="3496"></progressive-image></div><figcaption><fbs-accordion><p class="color-body light-text" role="button">Bitcoin is nearing $100,000.</p></fbs-accordion><small>getty</small></figcaption></figure> <p>I drew this chart about a year ago:</p> <div class="halfway_hardwall_1"></div><figure class="embed-base image-embed embed-1" role="presentation"><div style="padding-top:61.60%;position:relative" class="image-embed__placeholder"><progressive-image src="https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/6744564d059bf11915ad35da/The-bitcoin-chart--my-prediction-from-a-year-ago/960x0.jpg?fit=scale" alt="The bitcoin chart: my prediction from a year ago" data-height="555" data-width="900"></progressive-image></div><figcaption><fbs-accordion><p class="color-body light-text" role="button">The bitcoin chart: my prediction from a year ago</p></fbs-accordion><small>Credit: ADVFN</small></figcaption></figure> <div class="article_paragraph_2"></div> <p>You can read article after article by me on Forbes.com with very similar projections going back, essentially, years. It is harder to predict the future than the past, but the reason I’m bringing it up is because of what I’m now predicting, which is this cycle will go into reverse after the coming high is hit. I’m not a permanent bull and while I’ve been right so far, if I’m right about what is coming next, we are in the final run and then after a terminal high we are in for that famous bitcoin crash action we should all be familiar with.</p> <div class="halfway_hardwall_2"></div> <p>But not just yet.</p> <div class="halfway_hardwall_3"></div> <p>Bitcoin (BTC) has as near as it could, just hit $100,000 a coin. This has been the destination for the last leg of the bitcoin cycle for a long time. The terminus is possibly $120,000, but $100,000 is the level where the top is approaching. Markets love round numbers and $100,000 is very round, but the basis of the price goes back to the halvening when bitcoin’s new supply halves and the value consequentially doubles. All this is not fate, but prices for assets is the outcome of people’s belief and intent, and whatever the reason, here we are around $100,000 a bitcoin because of the crypto bitcoin brand.</p> <div class="halfway_hardwall_4"></div> <div class="vestpocket"></div> <p>So what next?</p> <p>Here is my road map:</p><div style="min-height:0" class="d-none"><div class="G9049W9y _1apm68B5 L996f vKVY8 inlineAdContainer" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation" tabindex="-1" data-testid="ad-container"></div></div><figure class="embed-base image-embed embed-2" role="presentation"><div style="padding-top:61.88%;position:relative" class="image-embed__placeholder"><progressive-image src="https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/67445674ee78a68934d1bcee/My-current-prediction-for-bitcoin-s-price/960x0.jpg?fit=scale" alt="My current prediction for bitcoin's price" data-height="557" data-width="900"></progressive-image></div><figcaption><fbs-accordion><p class="color-body light-text" role="button">My current prediction for bitcoin's price</p></fbs-accordion><small>Credit: ADVFN</small></figcaption></figure> <div class="P7h_m"><div class="ruw7_">MORE FROM<!-- --> <span class="_rEMv">FORBES ADVISOR</span></div><div class="j50hg"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/savings/best-high-yield-savings-accounts/?utm_source=forbes&utm_medium=recirc&utm_campaign=tiger-sept23" aria-label="Graphic Best High-Yield Savings Accounts Of 2024" data-ga-track="Advisor Recirc - Multiple Articles - Link 1" class="_4JPrP"><img loading="lazy" src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/fit-in/1290x/https://www.forbes.com/advisor/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/getty_1-best-online-savings-thumbnail_101920pm.jpg" alt="Graphic Best High-Yield Savings Accounts Of 2024"/></a><div class="pwarH h0FhB"><h3 class="b15jp"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/savings/best-high-yield-savings-accounts/?utm_source=forbes&utm_medium=recirc&utm_campaign=tiger-sept23" title="Best High-Yield Savings Accounts Of 2024" aria-label="Best High-Yield Savings Accounts Of 2024" data-ga-track="Advisor Recirc - Multiple Articles - Link 1">Best High-Yield Savings Accounts Of 2024</a></h3><div class="zZWc_">By<!-- --> <a href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/author/kevin-payne/" class="_0ZtXF" aria-label="Kevin Payne">Kevin Payne<!-- -->,</a><span class="QjZDS"> <!-- -->Contributor</span></div></div></div><div class="j50hg"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/savings/best-5-percent-interest-savings-accounts/?utm_source=forbes&utm_medium=recirc&utm_campaign=tiger-sept23" aria-label="Graphic Best 5% Interest Savings Accounts of 2024" data-ga-track="Advisor Recirc - Multiple Articles - Link 2" class="_4JPrP"><img loading="lazy" src="https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/fit-in/900x510/https://www.forbes.com/advisor/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Saving-Rates-2.jpg" alt="Graphic Best 5% Interest Savings Accounts of 2024"/></a><div class="pwarH h0FhB"><h3 class="b15jp"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/savings/best-5-percent-interest-savings-accounts/?utm_source=forbes&utm_medium=recirc&utm_campaign=tiger-sept23" title="Best 5% Interest Savings Accounts of 2024" aria-label="Best 5% Interest Savings Accounts of 2024" data-ga-track="Advisor Recirc - Multiple Articles - Link 2">Best 5% Interest Savings Accounts of 2024</a></h3><div class="zZWc_">By<!-- --> <a href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/author/cassidy-horton" class="_0ZtXF" aria-label="Cassidy Horton">Cassidy Horton<!-- -->,</a><span class="QjZDS"> <!-- -->Contributor</span></div></div></div></div> <p>Now the more aggressive true believers will see this:</p><figure class="embed-base image-embed embed-3" role="presentation"><div style="padding-top:61.60%;position:relative" class="image-embed__placeholder"><progressive-image src="https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/6744569cb51dd3cba4e88db9/Bitcoin-true-believers-predict-the-price-will-go-here/960x0.jpg?fit=scale" alt="Bitcoin true believers predict the price will go here" data-height="555" data-width="900"></progressive-image></div><figcaption><fbs-accordion><p class="color-body light-text" role="button">Bitcoin true believers predict the price will go here</p></fbs-accordion><small>Credit: ADVFN</small></figcaption></figure> <div class="article_paragraph_7"></div> <p>It could happen. The idea will be that bitcoin will continue to rise to the inauguration, but there are problems with that argument:</p> <ol> <li>Most people think the target is the moon when a bubble hits its peak. It isn’t and it then tanks. We are close to those ecstatic sentiments.</li> <li>The very top can be much higher than the tradeable level because the final move lasts minutes, even seconds and you are not there to catch it. So the high might be mighty but it was not actually tradeable.</li> <li>If everyone thinks the high will be the inauguration it will be preempted so the high will be earlier.</li> <li>The Trump news cycle, which is buoying up bitcoin, is about to hit an exhaustion phase.</li> <li>Because I say so (well, maybe not!).</li> </ol> <p>Normally I get out (too) early; I have literally sold my bitcoin a few minutes ago, at the $100,000 area. I will run my laggard ethereum position to see if it runs in the final phase of the cycle and a few weeks beyond the bitcoin top as it did last time. However, Solana is looking like the cool kid on the blockchain right now, so this ethereum play might prove fruitless.</p> <script> function loadConnatixScript(document) { if (!window.cnxel) { window.cnxel = {}; window.cnxel.cmd = []; var iframe = document.createElement('iframe'); iframe.style.display = 'none'; iframe.onload = function() { var iframeDoc = iframe.contentWindow.document; var script = iframeDoc.createElement('script'); script.src = '//cd.elements.video/player.js' + '?cid=' + '62cec241-7d09-4462-afc2-f72f8d8ef40a'; script.setAttribute('defer', '1'); script.setAttribute('type', 'text/javascript'); iframeDoc.body.appendChild(script); }; document.head.appendChild(iframe); const preloadResourcesEndpoint = 'https://cds.elements.video/a/preload-resources-ovp.json'; fetch(preloadResourcesEndpoint, { priority: 'low' }) .then(response => { if (!response.ok) { throw new Error('Network response was not ok', preloadResourcesEndpoint); } return response.json(); }) .then(data => { const cssUrl = data.css; const cssUrlLink = document.createElement('link'); cssUrlLink.rel = 'stylesheet'; cssUrlLink.href = cssUrl; cssUrlLink.as = 'style'; cssUrlLink.media = 'print'; cssUrlLink.onload = function() { this.media = 'all'; }; document.head.appendChild(cssUrlLink); const hls = data.hls; const hlsScript = document.createElement('script'); hlsScript.src = hls; hlsScript.setAttribute('defer', '1'); hlsScript.setAttribute('type', 'text/javascript'); document.head.appendChild(hlsScript); }).catch(error => { console.error('There was a problem with the fetch operation:', error); }); } } loadConnatixScript(document); </script> <script class="fbs-cnx"></script> <p>The altcoin insanity in the last cycle, is in this incarnation meme coins and I admit to being too old and dumb to play these too new and dumb “assets” for their explosive up/downsides. The audience in markets has a high element of outright gamblers. Gambling is a use case, but when the trading game becomes a pure gambling skill game like ‘crab racing,’ it’s not for me. It is, however, emblematic of the last leg of the bitcoin cycle.</p> <p>So now we are approaching the final weeks of this cycle, remember, try not to ride your hodl all the way back down. The only reason to hold through the next crypto winter might be your capital gains tax situation, but otherwise only the most hardened crypto, “never sell and die a bitcoin billionaire” type should forget about trying to go to fiat at the top.</p> <p>After all these articles navigating the crypto winter and this new boom cycle, we are finally near the end game. 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It is harder to predict the future than the past, but the reason I’m bringing it up is because of what I’m now predicting, which is this cycle will go into reverse after the coming high is hit. I’m not a permanent bull and while I’ve been right so far, if I’m right about what is coming next, we are in the final run and then after a terminal high we are in for that famous bitcoin crash action we should all be familiar with.","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":9}],"key":9},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":10},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"DIV","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{"className":"halfway_hardwall_2"},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":11},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":12},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"P","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"But not just yet.","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":13}],"key":13},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":14},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"DIV","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{"className":"halfway_hardwall_3"},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":15},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":16},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"P","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"Bitcoin (BTC) has as near as it could, just hit $100,000 a coin. 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The idea will be that bitcoin will continue to rise to the inauguration, but there are problems with that argument:","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":36}],"key":36},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":37},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"OL","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n ","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":38},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"LI","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"Most people think the target is the moon when a bubble hits its peak. It isn’t and it then tanks. We are close to those ecstatic sentiments.","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":39}],"key":39},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n ","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":40},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"LI","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"The very top can be much higher than the tradeable level because the final move lasts minutes, even seconds and you are not there to catch it. So the high might be mighty but it was not actually tradeable.","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":41}],"key":41},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n ","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":42},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"LI","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"If everyone thinks the high will be the inauguration it will be preempted so the high will be earlier.","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":43}],"key":43},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n ","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":44},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"LI","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"The Trump news cycle, which is buoying up bitcoin, is about to hit an exhaustion phase.","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":45}],"key":45},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n ","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":46},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"LI","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"Because I say so (well, maybe not!).","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":47}],"key":47},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":48}],"key":38},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":39},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"P","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"Normally I get out (too) early; I have literally sold my bitcoin a few minutes ago, at the $100,000 area. I will run my laggard ethereum position to see if it runs in the final phase of the cycle and a few weeks beyond the bitcoin top as it did last time. However, Solana is looking like the cool kid on the blockchain right now, so this ethereum play might prove fruitless.","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":40}],"key":40},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":41},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"SCRIPT","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n function loadConnatixScript(document) {\n if (!window.cnxel) {\n window.cnxel = {};\n window.cnxel.cmd = [];\n var iframe = document.createElement('iframe');\n iframe.style.display = 'none';\n iframe.onload = function() {\n var iframeDoc = iframe.contentWindow.document;\n var script = iframeDoc.createElement('script');\n script.src = '//cd.elements.video/player.js' + '?cid=' + '62cec241-7d09-4462-afc2-f72f8d8ef40a';\n script.setAttribute('defer', '1');\n script.setAttribute('type', 'text/javascript');\n iframeDoc.body.appendChild(script);\n };\n document.head.appendChild(iframe);\n\n const preloadResourcesEndpoint = 'https://cds.elements.video/a/preload-resources-ovp.json';\n fetch(preloadResourcesEndpoint, { priority: 'low' })\n .then(response =\u003e {\n if (!response.ok) {\n throw new Error('Network response was not ok', preloadResourcesEndpoint);\n }\n return response.json();\n })\n .then(data =\u003e {\n const cssUrl = data.css;\n const cssUrlLink = document.createElement('link');\n cssUrlLink.rel = 'stylesheet';\n cssUrlLink.href = cssUrl;\n cssUrlLink.as = 'style';\n cssUrlLink.media = 'print';\n cssUrlLink.onload = function() {\n this.media = 'all';\n };\n document.head.appendChild(cssUrlLink);\n\n const hls = data.hls;\n const hlsScript = document.createElement('script');\n hlsScript.src = hls;\n hlsScript.setAttribute('defer', '1');\n hlsScript.setAttribute('type', 'text/javascript');\n document.head.appendChild(hlsScript);\n }).catch(error =\u003e {\n console.error('There was a problem with the fetch operation:', error);\n });\n }\n }\n loadConnatixScript(document);\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":42}],"key":42},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":43},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"SCRIPT","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{"className":"fbs-cnx"},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n (function() {\n function createUniqueId() {\n return 'xxxxxxxx-xxxx-4xxx-yxxx-xxxxxxxxxxxx'.replace(/[xy]/g, function(c) {\n var r = Math.random() * 16 | 0,\n v = c == 'x' ? r : (r \u0026 0x3 | 0x8);\n return v.toString(16);\n });\n }\n const randId = createUniqueId();\n document.getElementsByClassName('fbs-cnx')[0].setAttribute('id', randId);\n document.getElementById(randId).removeAttribute('class');\n (new Image()).src = 'https://capi.elements.video/tr/si?token=' + '44f947fb-a5ce-41f1-a4fc-78dcf31c262a' + '\u0026cid=' + '62cec241-7d09-4462-afc2-f72f8d8ef40a';\n cnxel.cmd.push(function () {\n cnxel({\n playerId: '44f947fb-a5ce-41f1-a4fc-78dcf31c262a',\n playlistId: '9f914deb-4288-4fd7-b59b-0d4d3ca3c704',\n }).render(randId);\n });\n })();\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":44}],"key":44},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":45},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"P","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"The altcoin insanity in the last cycle, is in this incarnation meme coins and I admit to being too old and dumb to play these too new and dumb “assets” for their explosive up/downsides. The audience in markets has a high element of outright gamblers. Gambling is a use case, but when the trading game becomes a pure gambling skill game like ‘crab racing,’ it’s not for me. It is, however, emblematic of the last leg of the bitcoin cycle.","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":46}],"key":46},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":47},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"P","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"So now we are approaching the final weeks of this cycle, remember, try not to ride your hodl all the way back down. The only reason to hold through the next crypto winter might be your capital gains tax situation, but otherwise only the most hardened crypto, “never sell and die a bitcoin billionaire” type should forget about trying to go to fiat at the top.","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":48}],"key":48},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":49},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"P","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"After all these articles navigating the crypto winter and this new boom cycle, we are finally near the end game. Get your plan in and try to stick to it.","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":50}],"key":50},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":51},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"P","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"EM","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"Disclosure: I own ether.","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":52}],"key":52}],"key":52},{"nodeType":3,"nodeName":"#text","nodeValue":"\n","attributes":{},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":53},{"nodeType":1,"nodeName":"DIV","nodeValue":null,"id":"","attributes":{"className":"newsletter_signup_article"},"parsedChildNodes":[],"key":54}],"preloadImage":"https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/664c7efddbbec70547dba43f/Bitcoin-and-candlestick-chart/960x0.jpg?format=jpg\u0026width=960","hasAutoPlayVideos":true,"hasRightRailVideoPlayer":true,"breadCrumbsData":[{"link":"https://www.forbes.com/digital-assets/","title":"Forbes Digital Assets","trackingProps":{"category":"Template Area Interaction","action":"click","label":"breadcrumb-L2"}}]},"shouldShowBylineForAuthor":true,"fullAdZone":"/7175/fdc.forbes/article-d","staticPageData":{},"header":[{"position":1,"sections":[],"title":"Trump 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