Mysteel月报：2024年5月钼市场回顾2024年6月展望-我的钢铁网

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justify;">回顾5月国内钼市场经历了较大波动，但整体呈现上升趋势。月初，收到节前倒数第二日的钼铁招标定价为22.95万元/吨（现款），推动市场进入调整阶段，钼价上扬，市场购销情况略有改善，节后回归呈现急速上扬态势。原料端方面，缺乏大型矿山出货，市场流通钼矿资源有限，钼铁生产排期紧张。同时，国际市场受到国内钼价推动，价格表现强劲，进一步推动国内钼价上行。本阶段，钼铁主流现货现金报价在24.2-24.5万元/吨。月中，随着高价逐步被市场消化，钼市场进入偏弱运行阶段，市场流动性下降。钼铁主流现货现金报价在23.8-24.3万元/吨之间，散货市场成交稀少。临近月末，国内钼矿山出货价格频繁上涨，带动钼铁价格水涨船高，部分铁厂报价一度攀升至25.5万元/吨。然而，后半月代表性钢厂接连流标，市场谨慎情绪加重，散货市场更显僵持，成交清淡。<strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">2024年</span></strong><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">5</span></strong><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">月最高价格为25.05万元/吨，环比上月上涨1.62%，最低价为23.5万元/吨，环比上月上涨15.20%。平均价为24万元/吨，环比上月上涨8.40%。</span></strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/12/6315194cbace4b5caf7d6275cc06b000.png" width="553" height="311" /></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">原料钼精矿方面，本月原料价格波动较大，月初第一次拉涨，中旬持稳为主，临近月末矿价再次拉涨随后维持高位。五一节后随着云<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>凉山、长青柿竹等招标，矿山出货价格上移，节后钼精矿连涨4天，散货市场议价重心随之走高，市场对于不断上涨的矿价持谨慎态度，月中盛龙、鹿鸣、大黑山、江铜、九龙等矿山陆续放量成交，矿山成交价格在3720-3800元/吨度，但散货市场与矿山分歧显现，贸易商陆续抛货，议价重心不断下移，月中旬散货市场钼精矿成交量较大，45-50%钼精矿散货议在3650元/吨度附近，随着国际市场的回暖，同时此阶段钢招价格持稳，国内钼精矿散货市场出现惜售情绪，随后在恒裕出货后市场迎来高价3910元/吨度，长青、江铜再次放货，矿山成家价格维持3900-3940元/吨度，临近月末市场维持高位运行，但铁厂成本倒挂明显，散货成交又回归冷清，多家钢厂流标，铁厂对于高价原料持谨慎态度，刚需采购为主，6月初黑龙江伊春某矿山以价换量，近4000吨原料流入市场，钼精矿价格虽有小幅回调但成本支撑依旧较为明显，河南大型钼矿山还未招标，短期易涨难跌。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/12/0a3ae6d9f6114ca0a177380aaeb9941a.png" width="553" height="316" /></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">国际市场方面，月初在五一假期期间，中国市场的休市并未对国际钼市产生负面影响。相反，国际钼市场持续上涨，交投氛围良好，表现亮眼。现货商家信心得到提振，成交活跃，国际氧化钼现货资源报价有望稳定在21美元/磅钼一线。月中，国际钼市呈现先扬后稳的趋势。尽管国际需求无明显变化，但中国市场原料供应错位，精矿价格拉涨推动了国际钼价上行。持续高位的国际钼价，使得卖家尝试压价，市场僵持运行，出现短暂横盘操作。月末，多次出现高位震荡运行，呈现上升态势，中国市场原料供应错位和低库存的持续影响下，现货市场活跃。整体来看，交易量较少但价格稳定，市场走强迹象明显。本月2024年5月最高价格为23.35万元/吨，环比上月涨10.09%，最低价为20.95万元/吨，环比上月降7.992%。平均价为22.24万元/吨，环比上月涨11.03%。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/12/e6d107e557f54c4587a0e17b7adbad32.png" width="554" height="348" /></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">化深方面，5月钼制品市场受到原料价格波动和下游需求变化的双重影响，市场运行整体偏弱，但价格持续保持高位。月初，原料钼精矿连涨四天，导致钼制品价格被动上调，但下游市场客户接受度较低，成交情况一般。在刚需背景下，部分商家开始少量交易。当前钼粉一级主流报价在45.0-46.0万元/吨。市场在矿山出货和钢厂招标博弈下，钼化工产品价格承压，整体运行僵持。月中，市场整体较为冷清，高位原料价格导致持货商报价困难，现货供应一般，但高价格抑制了下游采购意愿，深加工需求一般，市场持观望态度。月末，钼化工市场价格表现强势，但散货市场交投不佳，对下游成交造成影响。虽然部分刚需成交，但市场整体持谨慎观望态度。当前钼粉一级主流报价在44.5-45.5万元/吨。短期内，下游制品市场预计继续弱势运行。本周，钼化工市场平稳运行，在原料价格上涨背景下，钼酸铵和钼制品生产成本增加，但下游需求释放偏弱，上下游产品价格增幅背离。市场以刚需为主，信心不足，观望态度明显，全国同类产品竞争加剧，品牌间出现价差。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/12/64d047252f1a4c86b437aad394785c5b.png" width="554" height="309" /></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">钢招市场方面，据<a href="https://www.mysteel.com/">Mysteel</a>不完全统计2024年5月钼铁招标量1.1179万吨，环比上月降17.88%，同比去年4月上涨1.63%。月初，在五一长假前夕，采购进入等待期，市场信心受到影响，多家招标流标，市场预期较为悲观。然而，江苏某钢厂的钼铁招标定价22.95万元/吨（现款）为市场带来一定提振，表现为价格的企稳和小幅反弹。月中，随着节假日结束，部分钢厂开始重启采购模式，钢铁价格维持在高位。然而，月初流标的情况在上半月仍然持续，表明市场对价格的接受度较低。后半月，整体钢铁招标有所突破，但价格只是呈现出小幅探涨态势，仍未显著回升。月末，在代表性钢厂陆续进行采购，但市场面临着一些挑战。主流矿山价格的大幅上涨使得终端钢厂对于高价承受能力有限，而这一因素导致了部分钢厂招标流标现象频繁，并且中小钢厂对于新一轮招标价格的跟进缓慢。大<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010107-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>型钢</a>厂招标价格基本保持为24.48万元/吨（承兑），其他中小型钢厂价格保持在24.8万元/吨（承兑）左右。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/12/b2554333526047cea19517dccd262ae5.png" width="554" height="880" /></p> <p style="text-align: left; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt;"><a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢</a>市场方面，<span style="color: #000000;">5月中下旬受宏观情绪影响伦<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/nie/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镍</a>及沪镍盘面大幅上涨，带动<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢期货</a> </span><span style="color: #000000;">盘面飘红，现货市场情绪修复，钢厂盘价上调，但因需成交不佳，现货报价仅小幅上探，涨幅不及期货涨幅。</span><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">2024年</span></strong><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">5</span></strong><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">月316不锈钢卷板最高价为25600元/吨，环比上月</span></strong><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">涨1.18%</span></strong><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">，最低价为25300元/吨，环比上月</span></strong><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">涨5.42%，</span></strong><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">平均价为24600元/吨，环比上月降0.40%。</span></strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/12/e1c30ec4af924d02bb203f19452124f2.png" width="553" height="316" /></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">进出口方面，2024年4月我国钼原料进口量为5423.87吨其中（钼铁685.65吨、钼精矿进口量4088.22吨、氧化钼进口量650.00吨)，环比3月5434.48吨降0.20%；同比2023年4月涨143.33%。2024年4月我国钼原料出口为3023.12吨（钼铁954.95吨、钼精矿出口量687.57吨、氧化钼出口量1380.60吨)，环比3月1837.50吨涨64.54%，同比2023年3月涨26.14%。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/12/84447adc0ae549e2bb6894e5a3b92e4a.png" width="444" height="52" /></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">钼铁供应方面，据调研统计全国钼铁主产区生产企业22家 (占比95%) ，2024年5月钼铁产量17128吨，环比上月降2.73%，全国钼铁主产区生产企业24家(新增两家) 2023年5月钼铁产量18128吨，环比上月降（降）0.3%。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/12/c8c88aacd1094bfdb30a1d69a3df8c0f.png" width="404" height="131" /></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>统计2024年1-5月中国43家不锈钢厂钼钢产量78.25万吨，同比增加18%；其中316不锈钢产量55.92万吨，同比增加10.8%；双相钢产量22.33万吨，同比增加41.2%。5月316不锈钢产量13.25万吨，环比增加10.9%；双相钢产量4.61万吨，环比减少16.9%。印尼5月316产量1.89万吨，环比增加11.3%。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/12/71a5bb55cf8a4115883b8328da294e82.png" width="541" height="155" /></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">整体来看，本月国内钼市场经历了从假期前的弱势运行到假期后的强劲反弹，再到月末的高位僵持，市场波动受钼精矿市场影响明显。</p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">展望：</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">原料端：</span></strong><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">钼精矿供应保持稳定，</span><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">月初部分大型矿山已完成上半年出货计划，</span><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">而月中则等待部分小型矿山的出货情况。库存方面，</span><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">5月原料精矿保持高位，</span><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">矿山陆续出货，贸易商获利回吐，社会库存大幅释放，供应端压力不大。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">铁厂端：</span></strong><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">钼铁供应相对稳定，5月份维持正常产量，略出现小幅增长。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">不锈钢：</span></strong><span class="15" style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">进入6月，钢厂发货较前期有一定增多，大多公仓库存压力开始上升，贸</span><span class="15" style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">易商与代理出货难度增大，市场对后市信心偏弱，但在钢厂盘价及成本支撑</span><span class="15" style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">下，预计<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢现货</a>价格稳中偏弱运行。后市关注钢厂生产及到货节奏，市 </span><span class="15" style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">场库存去化状况，以及原料成交价格的变动。 </span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://gongmo.mysteel.com/"><strong><span class="15" style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">工模具钢</span></strong></a><strong><span class="15" style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">方面：</span></strong><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">5月国内模具钢市场低价资源价格底部抬升，下游采购跟进较为缓慢。近阶段去库有所放缓，商家维持去库为主，需求表现仍较不足。但鉴于目前钢厂生产利润极度收缩，成本支撑仍在，预计6月份模具钢市场价格重心或小幅上移，仍需重点关注宏观利好政策和成本端走向。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">整体来看，6月初大型矿山放量出货，钢厂进场积极，上下游平衡点开始显现，表现出一定的稳定性，</span><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">市场整体呈现</span><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">高位</span><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; background: #ffffff;">震荡运行局面。</span></p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：郑雅文 021-26096670 </br> 资讯监督：查佐栋 021-26093218 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-667-------------1.html" 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