3B Forecasting Methods

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To forecast the Triple Billions to 2030 each tracer indicator must be forecast to 2030. For the few indicators where data is available the forecast captures the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Forecasts are generally produced in a two step process: 1. A “baseline” model is fit using 2000-2019 data to capture pre-pandemic trends and project to 2030 what might have occurred without the COVID-19 pandemic. 2. The baseline projections are then adjusted during pandemic years to account for disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic." /><meta name="description" content="The Triple Billion Indices are calculated as a function of 46 outcome indicators. To forecast the Triple Billions to 2030 each tracer indicator must be forecast to 2030. For the few indicators where data is available the forecast captures the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Forecasts are generally produced in a two step process: 1. A “baseline” model is fit using 2000-2019 data to capture pre-pandemic trends and project to 2030 what might have occurred without the COVID-19 pandemic. 2. 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October 2023</div> <div class="dynamic-content__tag"><span> | </span>Technical document</div> </div> </header> <div class="dynamic-content__separator"></div> <section class="dynamic-content__section dynamic-content__container"> <div class="dynamic-content__section-container"> <div class="dynamic-content__figure-container"> <figure class="dynamic-content__figure"> <img src="https://cdn.who.int/media/images/default-source/ddi-department/tb.tmb-479v.jpg?sfvrsn=a48b1bfd_1" alt="3B Forecasting Methods" /> </figure> <div class="button button-blue-background "><a href=https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/documents/ddi/technical-notes-summary.pdf?sfvrsn=183e1c95_1&download=true target="_blank" href=https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/documents/ddi/technical-notes-summary.pdf?sfvrsn=183e1c95_1&download=true target="_blank" onclick=sendGaEvent('Download','https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/documents/ddi/technical-notes-summary.pdf?sfvrsn=183e1c95_1&download=true') >Download <span>(236 kB)</span></a></div> </div> <div class="dynamic-content__description-container"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-md-8"> <div class="dynamic-content__description"> <h3>Overview </h3> <p><p>The Triple Billion Indices are calculated as a function of 46 outcome indicators. To forecast the Triple Billions to 2030 each tracer indicator must be forecast to 2030. For the few indicators where data is available the forecast captures the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Forecasts are generally produced in a two step process:</p><p>1. A “baseline” model is fit using 2000-2019 data to capture pre-pandemic trends and project to 2030 what might have occurred without the COVID-19 pandemic. </p><p>2. 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